Plan: The United States federal government should fully fund the National Democratic Institute for its programs on technical assistance in political organization and elections monitoring in Egypt.
Advantage 1 is Democracy.
The SCAF is executing smear campaigns against political parties and CSOs as a prelude to an attempt to rig the election – monitoring is key to check.
Hassan and Shenker in 11
Amro and Jack; journalist who writes regularly for The Guardian from Egypt. His work has covered India and Nepal, Central Asia, the Balkans, the US and Gaza, and has been published in a wide range of magazines and newspapers across the globe - including The Times, The Independent, The New Statesman and Monocle; Egyptian human rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/egypt-human-rights-military
A list of…will be crucial."
Without successful monitoring SCAF could rig the election to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to hold a majority
Halawa in 11 (Omar, Contributer Almasry Alyoum, “As Egypt rejects international election monitors, rights advocates fear fraud” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/479258)
A spokesperson for…the monitoring process.
Muslim Brotherhood will erode Egypt - Israeli peace treaty and lure Israel into war
Hirsi Ali in 11 (resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute,the author of Infidel and Nomad and the founder of the AHA Foundation, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed Where Osama Failed?” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5842.2011.01259.x/pdf summer 2011)
True, the Brotherhood’s …the Islamist vision.
Failure of democracy in Egypt leads to scapegoating; leaders will deflect anti- regime sentiments into anti- Israel sentiments escalating conflict
Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)
Israel's fears are … spiral into disaster.
Even if the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel is not overturned Egypt will support Israel’s enemies
Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)
Because the peace…Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
This causes an Israeli unilateral attack.
Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)
Should pressure ease, …confrontation with Israel.
Israel-Egypt war escalates to WMD exchange
International Business Times 2011 “Middle East on Brink of Full-Scale War: Israeli General,” http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/209378/20110906/israel-defense-general-eisenberg-war-iran-syria-turkey-egypt.htm
The Middle East …source of conflict.
Advantage 2 is Stability
Current instability means that failure of the transition in Egypt will set the entire region back and usher in a new wave of radicalism that disrupts stability and cripples US leadership.
Kitfield in 11 (James, National Journal; 3/5/2011, p10-10, 1p, U.S. Faces Dynamic Instability in the Middle East, Academic Search Premier)
No one can…for the entire region."
US hegemony is sustainable – economy and military superiority
Ron Marks, Senior Vice President for Government Relations, Oxford-Analytica, June 1, 2010 10:55 AM, “The Decline Redux,” http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/superpower-or-spendthrift.php#1589150
Ok, let's get …is getting boring.
But US regional hegemony is on the brink
The Guardian Monday 31 May 2010, “US hegemony in Middle East is ending,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending
Not that …could be ending.
Middle East hegemony is key to overall hegemony
Haass and Indyk in 09 (Richard N., President of the Council on Foreign relations, and Martin, “Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East”, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63718/richard-n-haass-and-martin-indyk/beyond-iraq)
This reduced…the United States.
Collapse of US leadership causes a litany of scenarios for nuclear war and massive destruction
Kagan in 11
Robert Kagan. Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs.” Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18. http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1
Today the international…will not fall over.
No multi-polarity – collapse of hegemony causes global anarchic violence
Ferguson in 4
Niall, Professor of History at New York University's Stern School of Business and Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; “A world without power,” Foreign Policy 143, p. 32-39, July-August
<But what if these…a few fortified enclaves.
And last is Egyptian Foreign Policy
Egypt’s international stance shapes policy across the Middle East and North Africa – democratic failure causes regional upheaval
Alterman 6/15/11
Jon B; senior fellow and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; The Earthquake: How Egypt Emerges from Uncertainty; CSIS; http://csis.org/files/publication/110610_alterman_GlobalForecast2011.pdf
The stakes are…that create jobs.
Egypt is a key battleground in the fight between the GCC and Iran – status quo ensures rapid proliferation. Only a robust democracy in Egypt solves.
Santini and Alessandri in 11
Ruth Hanau; Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) expertise in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Emiliano; Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund; “Iran and Turkey after Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?”; Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings
At present, the balance …to the Middle East.
Iranian regional hegemony threatens the globe – causes proliferation, instability, terrorism, and conflict up to nuclear war
Maginnis 7/12/11
Robert; retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst; U.S. Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony; Human Events; http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787
President Barack Obama’s …arms sales.
Third is Solvency
:
NDI lacks resources in the status quo
Slavin in 11
Barbara; Inter Press Services Washington Correspondent; Mideast: U.S. 'Democracy' Advisors Suddenly in Demand; April 14; Global Issues; http://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/04/14/9287
Carpenter, now with…for International Peace.
The US is uniquely suited to provide training, experience, and funds to organizations like the NDI to work in elections monitoring, civil society, and political party training – action now during Egyptian transition is key – no additional funding required.
Masloski in 11, Andrew (Director of Educational Outreach at America Abroad Media). “The Price of Democracy in Egypt.” Foreign Policy. 2/9 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_democracy_in_egypt
While Congress has entertained …the U.S. has to offer.
US success in Egypt is key to solve anti-Americanism in the region and re-establish regional credibility.
Hamid in 11
Shadi; Director of Research @ Brookings Doha Center; The Struggle for Middle East Democracy; Cairo Review of Global Affairs; http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx
The revolutions …This has not happened.
Perception is key in the coming months- the US must show support for democratic regimes to boost its image in the region and ensure that the Egypt-Israel peace treaty stays in place
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) - 09/08/11, Whither the Arab Spring, The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/180407-whither-the-arab-spring
The coming months will…in the coming months.
No uniqueness – the US is already dumping aid in Egypt – it’s perceived and we’ve been criticized for it. US commitment to this track is key.
O’Keefe in 11
Quinn; Senior Associate, Human Rights Defenders; U.S. Should Be Proud of Doing the Right Thing to Support Independent Civil Society in Egypt; Human Rights First; http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/08/16/u-s-should-be-proud-of-doing-the-right-thing-to-support-independent-civil-society-in-egypt/
The U.S. government …of backing down.
