Advantage 1 is Egyptian Democracy –

The SCAF is executing smear campaigns against political parties and CSOs as a prelude to an attempt to rig the election – monitoring is key to check.

Hassan and Shenker in 11

Amro and Jack; journalist who writes regularly for The Guardian from Egypt. His work has covered India and Nepal, Central Asia, the Balkans, the US and Gaza, and has been published in a wide range of magazines and newspapers across the globe - including The Times, The Independent, The New Statesman and Monocle; Egyptian human rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/egypt-human-rights-military

A list of 39 organisations…and monitoring will be crucial."

Without successful monitoring SCAF could rig the election to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to hold a majority

Halawa in 11 (Omar, Contributer Almasry Alyoum, “As Egypt rejects international election monitors, rights advocates fear fraud” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/479258)

A spokesperson for the ruling…groups from the monitoring process.

Muslim Brotherhood will erode Egypt - Israeli peace treaty and lure Israel into war

Hirsi Ali in 11 (resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute,the author of Infidel and Nomad and the founder of the AHA Foundation, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed Where Osama Failed?” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5842.2011.01259.x/pdf summer 2011)

True, the Brotherhood’s leaders ….share the Islamist vision.

Muslim Brotherhood win means Islamic encirclement of Israel – guarantees conflict

Hirsh in 11 (Michael, National Journal, “Mideast Uprisings Could Mean Grim Tidings for Israel” http://web.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.mnl.umkc.edu/ehost/detail?sid=96c83a57-b020-427e-956b-92141ae5b1e4%40sessionmgr113&vid=2&hid=106&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=aph&AN=57937058)

It's hardly surprising that ….as in the Palestinian territories.

Even if the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel is not overturned Egypt will support Israel’s enemies

Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)

Because the peace treaty is….and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.

This causes an Israeli unilateral attack.

Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)

Should pressure ease, andshould ….avoid a confrontation with Israel.

Israel-Egypt war escalates to WMD exchange

International Business Times 2011 “Middle East on Brink of Full-Scale War: Israeli General,” http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/209378/20110906/israel-defense-general-eisenberg-war-iran-syria-turkey-egypt.htm

The Middle East is on the brink…Turkey as a new source of conflict.

Advantage 2 is Stability

Current instability means that failure of the transition in Egypt will set the entire region back and usher in a new wave of radicalism that disrupts stability and cripples US leadership.

Kitfield in 11 (James, National Journal; 3/5/2011, p10-10, 1p, U.S. Faces Dynamic Instability in the Middle East, Academic Search Premier)

No one can predict the …dangerous consequences for the entire region."

US hegemony is sustainable – economy and military superiority

Ron Marks, Senior Vice President for Government Relations, Oxford-Analytica, June 1, 2010 10:55 AM, “The Decline Redux,” http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/superpower-or-spendthrift.php#1589150

Ok, let's get some facts on …for awhile because this is getting boring.

But US regional hegemony is on the brink

The Guardian Monday 31 May 2010, “US hegemony in Middle East is ending,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending

Not that this era is yet …the Middle East could be ending.

Middle East hegemony is key to overall hegemony

Haass and Indyk in 09 (Richard N., President of the Council on Foreign relations, and Martin, “Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East”, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63718/richard-n-haass-and-martin-indyk/beyond-iraq)

This reduced regional influence ….working with the United States.

Collapse of US leadership causes a litany of scenarios for nuclear war and massive destruction

Kagan in 11

Robert Kagan. Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs.” Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18. http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1

Today the international situation ….the table will not fall over.

No multi-polarity – collapse of hegemony causes global anarchic violence

Ferguson in 4

Niall, Professor of History at New York University's Stern School of Business and Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; “A world without power,” Foreign Policy 143, p. 32-39, July-August 

<But what if these esteemed theorists are all…into a few fortified enclaves.

And last is Egyptian Foreign Policy

Egypt’s international stance shapes policy across the Middle East and North Africa – democratic failure causes regional upheaval

Alterman 6/15/11

Jon B; senior fellow and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; The Earthquake: How Egypt Emerges from Uncertainty; CSIS; http://csis.org/files/publication/110610_alterman_GlobalForecast2011.pdf

The stakes are surely high enough …especially in sectors that create jobs.

Egypt is a key battleground in the fight between the GCC and Iran – status quo ensures rapid proliferation. Only a robust democracy in Egypt solves.

Santini and Alessandri in 11

Ruth Hanau; Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) expertise in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Emiliano; Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund; “Iran and Turkey after Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?”; Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings

At present, the balance of power…model Iran has long presented to the Middle East.

Iranian regional hegemony threatens the globe – causes proliferation, instability, terrorism, and conflict up to nuclear war

Maginnis 7/12/11

Robert; retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst; U.S. Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony; Human Events; http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787

President Barack Obama’s wrongheaded …place through its nonstop arms sales.

And continued Egyptian instability or radicalism will cause a cascade of nuclear proliferation through MENA.

Sokolski in 11

Henry; executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center; Feb 8; Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire: What the Egyptian revolt means for nuclear proliferation; The New Republic; http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak

Even more dangerously, unlike Iraq…states whose governments are likely to be destabilized.

Egypt is the only internal link to cascading proliferation throughout the Middle East and North Africa

Fitzpatrick in 11

Mark; Director of Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme; Today Protests, Tomorrow Nukes?; The International Institute for Strategic Studies; http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-voices/?blogpost=128

In a 2009 report, the IISS concluded…Parliament in favour of an Egyptian nuclear deterrent. 

And proliferation and arms race in MENA is the most likely scenario for nuclear war.

Blake in 11

Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html

Tension in the Middle East and Asia …if inhaled or absorbed through the skin.

Triggers global escalation

Primakov 2009 E.M. Laureate of the Lomonosov Grand Gold Medal, Scientific Session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, “The Middle East Conflict in the Context of International Relations,” Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 79, No. 5, pp. 468–472.

After the end of the Cold War, some …consequences for the whole world.

Plan: The United States federal government should fully fund the National Democratic Institute for its programs on technical assistance in political organization and elections monitoring in Egypt.

Solvency:

NDI lacks resources in the status quo

Slavin in 11

Barbara; Inter Press Services Washington Correspondent; Mideast: U.S. 'Democracy' Advisors Suddenly in Demand; April 14; Global Issues; http://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/04/14/9287

Carpenter, now with the Washington…the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The US is uniquely suited to provide training, experience, and funds to organizations like the NDI to work in elections monitoring, civil society, and political party training – action now during Egyptian transition is key – no additional funding required.

Masloski in 11, Andrew (Director of Educational Outreach at America Abroad Media). “The Price of Democracy in Egypt.” Foreign Policy. 2/9 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_democracy_in_egypt

While Congress has entertained the notion …experience that the U.S. has to offer.

US success in Egypt is key to solve anti-Americanism in the region and re-establish regional credibility.

Hamid in 11

Shadi; Director of Research @ Brookings Doha Center; The Struggle for Middle East Democracy; Cairo Review of Global Affairs; http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx

The revolutions are far from complete…Arab populations and their democratic aspirations. This has not happened.

Perception is key in the coming months- the US must show support for democratic regimes to boost its image in the region and ensure that the Egypt-Israel peace treaty stays in place

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) - 09/08/11, Whither the Arab Spring, The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/180407-whither-the-arab-spring

The coming months will determine ….government emerges in the coming months.

And only targeted but unconditional aid will be accepted by Egypt.

Lally and Sheridan in 11

Kathy and Mary Beth; staff writers for Washington post foreign correspondence; “U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly”; Washington Post; March 5; http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/04/AR2011030402248.html?sid=ST2011030404355\

Many Egyptians who favor U.S. aid…policies rather than with popular needs."

No uniqueness – the US is already dumping aid in Egypt – it’s perceived and we’ve been criticized for it. US commitment to this track is key.

O’Keefe in 11

Quinn; Senior Associate, Human Rights Defenders; U.S. Should Be Proud of Doing the Right Thing to Support Independent Civil Society in Egypt; Human Rights First; http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/08/16/u-s-should-be-proud-of-doing-the-right-thing-to-support-independent-civil-society-in-egypt/

The U.S. government is really taking ….has no intentions of backing down.

And, nearly 1.6 billion in US Aid to Egypt now.

Arnold in 11

David; writer for Voice of America; US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question; Voice of America; Aug 8; http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html

The bulk of all U.S. foreign…democratization - $25 million.

Advantage 3 Democracy Promotion

Transition now is key – Egypt is on the brink of backsliding into authoritarianism

Keeler in 11

Chris, journalist specializing in Middle Eastern politics, July 27, “Imposing Security Services By Any Other Name,” http://notesfromamedinah.com/2011/07/27/imposing-security-services-by-any-other-name/

Almost six months after the Egyptian.... important revolutionary step for the country.

And, the status quo is linked to militaristic values – the affirmative promotion of liberal values is key, this is the only way to delink it from military goals and foster community based organization and democratization. Liberal democracy promotion is a far better alternative to propping up dictators.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

Current international political trends are ... agenda of democracy support.

Elections are key - past democracy promotion has failed to recognize the critical role of elections, meaning that the plan is a necessary corrective to creating an open participatory society.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

Flowing from this, fifth in our list of key...model for today’s democrats.

And that’s key to social justice and social change.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

A first, frequent criticism is ...the United Nations General Assembly.6

And, as students and scholars we are obligated to stay engaged in the shaping of western and international institutions. Failure to do risks a collapse of the global democratic revolution that will cause widespread genocide and nuclear conflict.

Shaw in 2k1 (Martin, sociologist of global politics, war and genocide. He is Research Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations, http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Users/hafa3/unfinished.pdf)

The new politics of international ...relations and politics, are intertwined.

The plan will not effect SKFTA passage-the GOP is pushing Obama, not the other way around

Tom Barkley 9/7/11 Republicans Up Pressure on Obama to Submit Trade Deals With Vote on Tariff Bill, Wall Street Journal, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/09/07/republicans-up-pressure-on-obama-to-submit-trade-deals-with-vote-on-tariff-bill/

Senate Finance Committee Ranking ...be worked out on the House side.

Obama’s agenda requires TAA passage before sending the trade bills to Congress

Jim Spencer 9/7/11 Politics trap trade pacts, StarTribune, http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/129157778.html

The trade agreements were negotiated during...the environment is in Congress," Kirk said.

Political capital prevents passage-if Obama overplays his hand it will cause backlash

Doug Palmer 9/6/11 U.S. trade deals face tricky approval path, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/06/usa-trade-congress-idUSN1E7851P420110906

After a heated fight this summer..."overplays its hand" on Trade Adjustment Assistance.

Failure to ratify SKFTA wouldn’t kill the alliance, we’re cooperating on too many levels.

US State Department Press Release, The Scoop, 6/29/11

(Transcription of a speech between Clinton and Foreign Prime Minister Kim Sung-Hwan, 29 June 2011, “Remarks With South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan”, http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1106/S00702/remarks-with-south-korean-foreign-minister-kim-sung-hwan.htm, 7.6.11, SWolff)

[…] FOREIGN MINISTER KIM: (Via interpreter) I would ...destabilizing it becomes? Thank you. […]

Alt causes to high US-SK relations – even if SKFTA fails, the alliance will last.

Manyan et al, 12/8/10, “US-South Korea Relations.” Congressional Research Service. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41481.pdf

While the U.S.-South Korea relationship ...many areas of North-South relations.

Bipartisan support for election monitoring.

KUNA 6/26/11. “McCain, Kerry Express US Support to Post-Revolution Egypt.” Kuwait News Agency. http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2176485&Language=en

McCain and Kerry held talks...people want a safer world."

Perm provides double solvency, resolves US specific image issues, and promotes EU soft power

Mitchell & Phillips in 8

Lincoln & David, The Atlantic Council, “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE”, http://www.acus.org/publication/enhancing-democracy-assistance

By offering incentives to ...and engage in democracy assistance.

The EU can’t solve - mismanaged, policy ambiguity, lack of chain of command, member state interest conflicts, and the wide variety of special interest microprojects mean most EU initiatives fail to be effective.

Bicchi in 10

Federica; Lecturer in International Relations of Europe at the Department of International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science; Dilemmas of implementation: EU democracy assistance in the Mediterranean; Democratization; Vol. 17 No 5; Taylor & Francis Group

The EU clearly delivered a fraction...accurate analyses of this behaviour.

There is little to no empirical support for the critique – in fact the evolution of democracy promotion flatly disproves their claim. Additionally, the alternative would not resolve any of the links, it would worsen any current problems with democracy promotion.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

Democracy promotion has lost...to their required improvement.

No empirical basis for the link – democracy promotion varies widely and the plan cannot be abstracted away as succumbing to every critique of democracy promotion

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

Two commonly-made assumptions... are more subtle in nature.

Elections may be important but they are not the ONLY thing which democracy assistance is concerned with. Furthermore, most democracy promotion projects actual underestimate the importance of elections, meaning that the plan is a necessary corrective.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

Flowing from this, fifth in our list ... appropriate model for today’s democrats. 

Democracy assistance involves helping key actors pushing for democratization in the target country. 

Carothers 2009, Thomas (senior research fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford University, and has also taught at the Central European University and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School). “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?” Journal of Democracy. January 2009, Volume 20, Number 1

The political approach operates ...of the nondemocratic actors.

NED, Department of State, NDI, IRI, Freedom House, and IFES follow the political approach to democracy assistance.

Carothers 2009, Thomas (senior research fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford University, and has also taught at the Central European University and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School). “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?” Journal of Democracy. January 2009, Volume 20, Number 1

The two other principal funders of ...such as election-monitoring groups.

Arab Spring democracy assistance means redirecting funds from existing programs which in the case of Egypt are military, not increasing funds – Egypt reallocation proves. 

Business Today 4/5/11. “Cashing in on Aid Funding.” http://www.businesstodayegypt.com/news/display/article/artId:63

It’s no secret that government-associated ... without contracts or interest fees.

USAID, in concert with other DA organizations, reprograms aid to Arab Spring nations. 

POMED 3/30/11, “Budget Hearing – USAID”. http://pomed.org/blog/2011/03/pomed-notes-budget-hearing-usaid.html/

Rep. Steven Rothman asked Dr. Shah ... Egyptian parliamentary elections in September.

And authoritarianism add-on

a) Transition now is key – Egypt is on the brink of backsliding into authoritarianism because of SCAF corruption and its killing the vitality of revolutionary movements.

Keeler in 11 

Chris, journalist specializing in Middle Eastern politics, July 27, “Imposing Security Services By Any Other Name,” http://notesfromamedinah.com/2011/07/27/imposing-security-services-by-any-other-name/

Almost six months after the Egyptian...important revolutionary step for the country.

b) Elections are key - past democracy promotion has failed to recognize the critical role of elections, meaning that the plan is a necessary corrective to creating an open participatory society.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

Flowing from this, fifth in our...appropriate model for today’s democrats.

c) And that’s key to social justice and social change.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

A first, frequent criticism is...speech to the United Nations General Assembly.6

4) And, as students and scholars we are obligated to stay engaged in the shaping of western and international institutions.  Failure to do risks a collapse of the global democratic revolution that will cause widespread genocide and nuclear conflict.  

Shaw in 2k1 (Martin, sociologist of global politics, war and genocide. He is Research Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations, http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Users/hafa3/unfinished.pdf)

The new politics of international ...relations and politics, are intertwined.

5) You should prefer our method – Even if they win some truth to their links the alternative is not useful for policymakers – it is neither pragmatic nor political, both of which are crucial to actual change and collapse into authoritarian capitalism.

Kurki 2011, Milja, Principal Investigator of ‘Political Economies of Democratisation’, a European Research Council-funded project based at the International Politics Department, Aberystwyth University, “The Limitations of the ‘Critical Edge’: Reflections on Critical and Philosophical IR Scholarship Today,” Millennium Journal of International Studies, Sage Journals Online, p. 1-18, July 7

It is a sign of the times ...effective or realistic opposition to it.

6) And even if they win the aff is uniquely manipulative Democratic transitions are inevitable-only the spread of Western institutions prevents them from escalating to nuclear war

Shaw in 2k1 (Martin,  sociologist of global politics, war and genocide. He is Research Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations, http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Users/hafa3/unfinished.pdf)

If we look at these contradictions ...are likely to secure a peaceful world.

7) You should vote for our advantages-even though undecidability structures politics, direct, specific, and timely political action is often necessary to uphold ethics.

Calcagno in 2k4 (Antonio, assistant professor of Philosophy at the University of Scranton, Philosophy Social Criticism, Jacques Derrida and Alain Badiou: is there a relation between politics and time?, sage)

I would like to argue that ...state of affairs of the world.

8) Ethics cannot be an objection to engaging in institutions-we are obligated to constantly engage institutions in an effort to make them more receptive to the Other.

Engster in 2k3 (Daniel, Assistant professor dep of poli sci @ UTSA, Can Care Ethics be Institutionalized? Toward a Caring Natural Law Theory* [*A revised version of this paper has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Politics, where it will appear as “Care Ethics and Natural Law Theory”]., http://www.csus.edu/org/wpsa/pisigmaalphaaward.pdf)

Having drawn this sharp distinction ...their very nature necessarily violate.

The existence of democratic institutions is critical to foster an agonistic space for disagreement which will not dissolve into violence – this is the only way to mediate competing interests

Bohman 1999, James “The politics of modern reason: Politics, anti-politics and norms in continental philosophy,” Monist, Apr, Vol. 82, Issue 2

The interaction between the state ...its possibilities for rational normative constraint.

Instability in the region means conflicts, spread of neolib, and state collapse

Colombo in 10 

Silvia, Researcher and a specialist in Mediterranean and Middle East issues at the

Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome, “The Southern Mediterranean: Between Changes and Challenges to its Sustainability” (Mediterranean Prospects) Silvia Colombo MEDPRO Technical Report No. 1/November, http://www.medpro-foresight.eu/system/files/MEDPRO%20TP%20No%201%20WP2%20Colombo.pdf 

Given our hypothesis of the overall unsustainability ...domestic conditions reach the tipping point.

THE TRANSITION TO MARXIST WILL CAUSE MILLIONS OF DEATHS, DESTRUCTIONS OF LIVING STANDARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION, AND FAMINE. AND THIS EVIDENCE PRESUMES “NEW AGE” MARXIST AS WELL. 

RUMMEL, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Hawaii, 04

(RJ, World Net Daily, “The Killing Machine that is Marxism,, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41944, December 15)

Of all religions, secular and otherwise... wished a deadly plague on all of us.

TRANSITION CAUSES CIVIL WARS. 

TERRY, Professor of Business Management at Brigham Young University, 95

(Roger, “Economic Insanity,” p193)

A good argument can be built for making...devastating than the one fought over slavery.