Advantage 1 is Muslim Brotherhood
The SCAF is executing smear campaigns against political parties and CSOs as a prelude to an attempt to rig the election – monitoring is key to check.
Hassan and Shenker in 11
Amro and Jack; journalist who writes regularly for The Guardian from Egypt. His work has covered India and Nepal, Central Asia, the Balkans, the US and Gaza, and has been published in a wide range of magazines and newspapers across the globe - including The Times, The Independent, The New Statesman and Monocle; Egyptian human rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/egypt-human-rights-military
A list of 39 organisations have added their … presence and monitoring will be crucial."
Status quo means Brotherhood wins – US must provide technical assistance to check
Trager in 11
Eric, Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2011, 90(5), Ebsco
Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood, which largely …Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.
Muslim Brotherhood win kills the global economy and triggers a war with Israel which will escalate to global nuclear war
Rose in 11
Taylor, International Relations and Strategic Intelligence – Liberty University, “The Islamic Revolution Part II”, Youth for Western Civilization, 2-1, http://www.westernyouth.org/articles/the-islamic-revolution-part-ii/
The riots in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Yemen …global advancement of her enemies.
Even if the Brotherhood takes control, plan is key to moderate
Duss in 11
Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/
I agree that U.S. has an interest … getting used to that idea.
Advantage 2 is US leadership
Hegemony is sustainable
Ron Marks, Senior Vice President for Government Relations, Oxford-Analytica, June 1, 2010 10:55 AM, “The Decline Redux,” http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/superpower-or-spendthrift.php#1589150
Ok, let's get some facts on the table … this is getting boring.
But Mid-East hegemony is on the brink
The Guardian Monday 31 May 2010, “US hegemony in Middle East is ending,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending
Not that this era is yet upon us,,, in the Middle East could be ending.
Egyptian instability cripples US regional leadership
Kitfield in 11 (James, National Journal; 3/5/2011, p10-10, 1p, U.S. Faces Dynamic Instability in the Middle East, Academic Search Premier)
No one can predict the … consequences for the entire region."
That’s key to global hegemony – basing and oil
Naqvi 2001, MB, “The muddle the US Middle East policy is,” Media Monitors Network, originally published in Defense Journal, http://www.mediamonitors.net/mbnaqvi10.html
Among other facts that are certain … self-interest of the US.
Extinction
Kagan in 11
Robert Kagan. Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs.” Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18. http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1
Today the international situation … and the table will not fall over.
The alt to hegemony is apolarity
Ferguson in 4
Niall, Professor of History at New York University's Stern School of Business and Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; “A world without power,” Foreign Policy 143, p. 32-39, July-August
But what if these esteemed theorists are … retreat into a few fortified enclaves.
Advantage 3 is Iran
Egyptian transition implicates regional balancing and security calculations – failure risks empowering Iran
Alterman 11
Jon B; senior fellow and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; 6/15/The Earthquake: How Egypt Emerges from Uncertainty; CSIS; http://csis.org/files/publication/110610_alterman_GlobalForecast2011.pdf
The stakes are surely …sectors that create jobs.
Egyptian transition inevitable – only a robust democratic government checks Iranian regional power
Santini in 11
Ruth Hanau; and Alessandri Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) expertise in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Emiliano; Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund; “Iran and Turkey after Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?”; Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings
At present, the balance of power … presented to the Middle East.
Iranian regional hegemony risks terrorism, proliferation, and global nuclear war
Maginnis 11
Robert; retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst; U.S. Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony; Human Events7/12/; http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787
President Barack Obama’s wrongheaded … its nonstop arms sales.
Advantage 4 is Egyptian Prolif
Egyptian radicalism causes cascading prolif
Sokolski in 11
Henry; executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center; Feb 8; Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire: What the Egyptian revolt means for nuclear proliferation; The New Republic; http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak
Even more dangerously… likely to be destabilized.
Egypt is the most likely scenario for runaway proliferation
Fitzpatrick in 11
Mark; Director of Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme; Today Protests, Tomorrow Nukes?; The International Institute for Strategic Studies; http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-voices/?blogpost=128
In a 2009 report, the IISS … Egyptian nuclear deterrent.
Nuclear war
Blake in 11
Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html
Tension in the Middle East and Asia … absorbed through the skin.
Escalates globally
Primakov 2009 E.M. Laureate of the Lomonosov Grand Gold Medal, Scientific Session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, “The Middle East Conflict in the Context of International Relations,” Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 79, No. 5, pp. 468–472.
After the end of the …consequences for the whole world.
Plan: The United States federal government should fully fund the National Democratic Institute for its programs on technical cooperation in political organization and elections monitoring in Egypt.
Finally, Solvency:
US assistance through the NDI is critical to bolster failing initiatives – solves monitoring, civil society, and political party training. Additional funding now is key
Masloski in 11, Andrew (Director of Educational Outreach at America Abroad Media). “The Price of Democracy in Egypt.” Foreign Policy. 2/9 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_democracy_in_egypt
While Congress has …the U.S. has to offer.
US success in Egypt is key to solve anti-Americanism in the region and re-establish regional credibility.
Hamid in 11
Shadi; Director of Research @ Brookings Doha Center; The Struggle for Middle East Democracy; Cairo Review of Global Affairs; http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.asp
The revolutions are far from … aspirations. This has not happened.
Perception is key in the coming months- the US must show support for democratic regimes to boost its image in the region
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) - 09/08/2011, Whither the Arab Spring, The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/180407-whither-the-arab-spring
The coming months will determine … emerges in the coming months.
U.S. assistance gives secular groups the resources and skills necessary to compete and prevent Brotherhood control
Ali in 11
Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood”, New York Times, 2-3, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page wanted=all
Those two experiences gave me some … succumb to another.
No uniqueness – the US is already dumping aid in Egypt – it’s perceived and we’ve been criticized for it. US commitment to this track is key.
O’Keefe in 11
Quinn; Senior Associate, Human Rights Defenders; U.S. Should Be Proud of Doing the Right Thing to Support Independent Civil Society in Egypt; Human Rights First; http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/08/16/u-s-should-be-proud-of-doing-the-right-thing-to-support-independent-civil-society-in-egypt/
The U.S. government is … intentions of backing down.
And, nearly 1.6 billion in US Aid to Egypt now.
Arnold in 11
David; writer for Voice of America; US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question; Voice of America; Aug 8; http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html
The bulk of all U.S. foreign … - $30 million; democratization - $25 million.