Yemen has planned decentralization, but it has stalled
Kholy and Tschirgi 10 (Heba and Necla, Policy Advisor at the UNDP and Research Associate at the Centre for International Policy Studies, May, “Re-Thinking the Approaches to Local Governance Programming in Conflict Affected Countries in the Arab Region”, http://204.200.211.31/Publications/Governance/Gov_Prac_doc/LG%20Comparative%20Paper%20in%20Arab%20Conflict-Affected%20Countries.pdf, Aly M)
Furthermore, the emphasis...been largely stalled (Country study, DCF, 2007).
Obama has reinstituted airstrikes in Yemen
DeYoung 11 (Karen, associate editor and senior national security correspondent for the Washington Post, 9/17, “U.S. increases Yemen drone strikes”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-increases-yemen-drone-strikes/2011/09/16/gIQAB2SXYK_story.html, Aly M)
The Obama administration...33-year rule.
Plan: The United States Federal Government should carry out the National Decentralization Strategy in Yemen.
Airstrikes will fail to solve for stability—resolving local issues only way to make airstrikes effective and stabilize the country
Gude 11 (Ken, Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program at American Progress, 6/14, “Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/yemen_drones.html, Aly M)
Yemen faces an...serious problem worse.
Systemic reforms vital to prevent Yemen from failing
Boucek 11
[Christopher, Associated Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, NATIONAL INTEREST, JULY 6, Yemen in Crisis, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=44944&solr_hilite=Yemen]
The thing that...terrorism and AQAP.
Decentralization only way to ensure long term stability—solves all alt causes
Boucek and Ottaway 10 (Christopher and Marina, associate in Carnegie Middle East Program and PhD from School of Oriental and African Studies @ University of London AND senior associate in Carnegie Middle East Program and PhD @ Columbia University, “Yemen on the Brink”, pg. vii, http://books.google.com/books?id=pUq4Wo1zSt0C&pg=PA24&lpg=PA24&dq=%22The+United+States+has+ongoing+foreign+policy+and+national+security+interests+with+regard+to+Yemen+that+extend+beyond+counterterrorism+issues,+and+so+it+is+in+Washington%E2%80%99s+interests+to+engage+Yemen+on+other+issues+that+will+contribute+indirectly+to+improving+domestic+security.%22&source=bl&ots=1PFqGOSNX5&sig=dt_plmDfr5po7CquDkV4bSyyfoE&hl=en&ei=-_VLTu_1M8PJsQKNt8i6CA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBYQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false, Aly M)
PLANNED DECENTRALIZATION. One... populations is essential.
Decentralization checks instability—stops secessionist movement and checks AQAP filling power vacuum
Feltman 10 (Jeffrey D., Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, 2/3, “Yemen on the Brink: Implications for US Policy”, http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rm/136499.htm, Aly M)
The southern protest...of that potential.
Further instability will pressure Obama into a 3rd military intervention—leads to massive overstretch and heg collapse
Lynch 10 (Marc, Associate Prof of Pol Sci and International Affairs and Director of Institute for Middle East Studies and Director of Middle East Studies Program @ Elliot School of International Affairs @ George Washington University, “Don’t lose perspective on Yemen”, http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/02/bad_ideas_on_yemen, Aly M)
The failed underpants...recent CNAS brief.
This crushes readiness and deterrence
Perry 2006 (William- former secretary of defense and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, The U.S. Military, The National Security Advisory Group, p. 11)
If recruiting trends...to some contingencies
Heg and deterrence prevents all wars from going nuclear─
Kagan 11 - Senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3
• American forces deployed... prove so unfortunate?
Shifting from an intervention strategy towards comprehensive approaches critical to larger multilateral cooperation—there is a unique spillover effect
Boyle and Schmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009)
The war on...have otherwise been.
Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable
Dyer 4(Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis)
The "firebreak" against...and everybody loses.
Additionally, intervention leads to US draw-in to a Saudi-Iran proxy war, and Iranian prolif
Tisdall 10 (Simon, assistant editor of the Guardian and a foreign affairs columnist, 1/4, “Yemen intervention risks ripple effect”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/04/yemen-intervention-ripple-effect, Aly M)
Saudi involvement is...new desert storm.
Saudi-Iran proxy war goes nuclear
United Press International 09 (“Saudi-Yemen conflict sharpens region's rivalries” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/12/01/Saudi-Yemen-conflict-sharpens-regions-rivalries/UPI-23441259705297/) BAL
If the U.S. ...and drags in others.
Iranian proliferation sparks a Middle East proliferation cascade that sparks a nuclear war
Allison, Harvard Government Professor, 2006
Graham, “The Will to Prevent”, Fall, Harvard International Law Review, L/N, Accessed 7/16/10
Meanwhile, Iran is... threaten our existence.”
Iran prolif ensures war with Israel
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and held a variety of positions @ Office of the Asst. Secretary Defense for International Security, James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Proliferation Papers, IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring, http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Longer-Term Use...numbers of Muslims.
Pakistan draw in would go nuclear
Cetron and Davies 7 (Marvin and Owen, PhD in Research and Development Management from American University and former senior editor at Omni magazine, 9/1, “Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East”, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html, Aly M)
The most ominous... yet to begin.
U.S. will get drawn in-extinction.
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and held a variety of positions @ Office of the Asst. Secretary Defense for International Security, James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Proliferation Papers, IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring, http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
In describing near-term... potential “Armageddon” scenario.
Global LNG shortages now
Wan 11 (Kwok W, energy correspondent for Reuters, 9/28, “IEA forecasts Japan LNG worst-case”, http://www.petroleum-economist.com/Article/2908167/Natural-Gas-and-LNG/IEA-forecasts-Japan-LNG-worst-case.html, Aly M)
Japanese liquefied natural ...purchases in August.
Stability in Yemen key to their LNG markets
Richardson 11 (Darren L, Liutenant Colonel in the United States Marine Corps, 3/23, “Al Qaida and Yemen – Is Our Current Policy Good Enough?”, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada543700.pdf, Aly M)
A secure environment... threatened by AQAP.
Yemeni LNG can plug shortages
Dahan 11 (Abdulkarim Ali, assistant professor of business administration at Ajman University of Science & Technology, May, “Natural Gas of Yemen The Challenge of Growth in the World’s Gas Markets”, http://wbiaus.org/11.Ali%20Dahan.pdf, Aly M)
The analysis indicates... technologies and skills.
Energy crisis will collapse Japan’s economy—offshoring, jobs, exports
Stevens 11 (Andrew, CNN World Business Today Anchor, 9/9, “After Fukushima: Japan’s energy crisis”, http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/09/after-fukushima-japans-energy-crisis/, Aly M)
The real threat ...is energy uncertainty.
Japanese economic collapse causes nuclear war.
Elliott, 02 (The Guardian Staff Writer, 2-11, Lexis)
Even so, the...and nuclear) neighbor.
Also, lack of energy will cause war with China over Spratlys—US draw in
Klare 1 (Michael T, Professor of World Security Studies at Amherst) Resource Wars the New Landscape of global conflict p. 136-7
Nevertheless, the South... larger regional conflict.
Would go nuclear
NTI ‘6, Nuclear Threat Initiative, Threat Reduction Agency created by CNN founder Ted Turner and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn with security representatives from 10 different nations/ “Nuclear Conflict in the 21st Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat”, October 18/
The depth of... the nuclear context.
No defense—energy crisis would cause Japan to break trade ties and end resource cooperation in an attempt to save its economy
Copeland 96 –PhD, Prof PoliSci @ U Virginia, Dale, "Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations," International Security, Vol. 20, no.4, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/copeland.htm
This article offers... tragedy of war
LNG is a quick solution to warming
Natural Gas.org 4 (“Natural Gas and the Environment,” http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp)
Pollutants emitted in... the United States.
Rapid tipping points mean warming will cause extinction quickly
Hansen ‘9, heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University (James, December, Storms of My Grandchildren, ix)
Planet Earth, creation...in due course.
