***SAUDI DISAD CARDS***
1NC
Saudi relations are high.
Coker 11 - BILL SPINDLE and MARGARET COKER, The New Cold War, Wall Street Journal, 4-16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html
Saudi officials say that despite the ….disintegrate into chaos."
Democracy assistance crushes Saudi relations – independently causes them to intervene against the plan, turning case and causing war with Iran.
Nasr 5-23-11 – Vali, Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?, Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html
Saudi rulers have made clear that …the middle of the conflict.
US support for democracy has put the alliance on the brink – plan causes Saudi proliferation.
Rozen 11 – Chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University, 4/18, “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance”, Yahoo News, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance
Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's …of the bill" for Pakistan's nuclear program.
Nuclear war.
Russell 2006 (Richard L., Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy and professor in Georgetown’s security studies program, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons” SRM)
How would the Middle East be affected ….the one that exists in Pakistan today.
Impact – prolif (no other war)
Probability – Deterrence is stable among great powers due to mutual second strike capabilities. Saudi prolif would be uniquely unstable.
Edelman et al 11 – Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; he was U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, *Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Eric S. Edelman, Andrew Krepinevich, Evan Montgomery, Foreign Affairs, “The dangers of a nuclear Iran”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran
Regardless of India’s reaction, any decision ….weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.
Petro Dollar
Relations solve prevent petro-dollar switch and global economic collapse.
Freeman 2004 (Chas, Middle East Policy Council President, Federal News Service, p. lexis)
The second matter, and far more grave in… and this is not a minor, minor matter.
Growth controls all conflicts – guarantees global peace.
Gartzke and Rohner 10 – Erik Gartzke Prof PoliSci @ UC San Diego, Dominic Rohner University of Zurich, “To Conquer or Compel: War, Peace, and Economic Development, “, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics University of Zurich Working Paper No. 511, 9-24, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1684000
To assess the relationship between
… if partial and incomplete, will eventually follow.
Relations key to solvency
Saudi relations solve anti-Americanism and regional credibility.
Lazazzero 8 – Junior Fellow @ the center for the study of the presidency and congress, Joseph, The U.S.-Saudi Alliance: A Necessary Shift toward Peace, Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2008/Lazazzero.pdf
Strengthening the U.S.-Saudi partnership would …step toward negotiations (Morris & Khalaf, 2006).
Saudi influence blocks solvency, even without military intervention.
Boucek 11 – Fellow @ Carnegie ME Program, Christopher, U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring, Carnegie, 6-12, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il
Since the onset of the Arab Spring, one of the ….status quo is the most important thing.
Saudi Arabia will go all in to roll back the plan
Ahrari 11 - Professor of National Security and Strategy of the Joint and Combined Warfighting School at the Armed Forces Staff College, Viewing the Arab Awakening from the saudi perspectives, Strategic Paradigms, 6-23, http://www.ehsanahrari.com/2011/06/23/viewing-the-arab-awakening-from-the-saudi-perspectives/
The Arab awakening’s aspirations to bring …suppressed immediately and unequivocally.
Saudis hate the plan – influence means Bahrain says no, turns the case
Desmukh 11 – Pakistan based journalist [FAHAD DESMUKH, Pakistan based journalist and former Bahrain blogger, Bahrain doesn’t want stability, Foreign Affairs, 6/22/11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/22/bahrain_doesn_t_want_stability?page=0,2]
Buoyed by the backing of Saudi …last 40 years. Why change now?
Link proves Saudi Arabia will block solvency
Aziz and Musalem 11 – Institute for Social Policy and Understanding
[Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the institute for social Policy and understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law and has served as a senior policy advisor at the office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland security and Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle eastern language and cultures and grew up in Bahrain, “Citizens not subjects,” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (an independent, nonpartisan, research organization dedicated to research about pressing issues, especially those related to Muslims around the world), July 2011]
This pro-democracy movement faces significant ….the Bahraini ruling family.
Uniqueness
US approach to Bahrain determines Saudi relations – US is mending tensions now by stepping back from reform.
Bremmer 11 – Ian, president of Eurasia Group and author of ‘The End of the Free Market’, Washington’s Stark Choice, Financial Times, 3-17, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/493c8dd0-50b7-11e0-9227-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZKQW5n77
Saudi Arabia needs good relations with the …Saudis openly hedge their bets.
Despite recent tensions, relations are high.
The Frontier Post, 9-9-2011 (King Abdullah sends message to Obama, p. www.thefrontierpost.com/?p=53417)
Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has ….Donilon’s description of Obama’s message to the king.
Relations good - Diplomacy has resolved previous tensions over the arab spring.
AFP 9-16-11 – US, Saudi relationship in good shape: top US official
WASHINGTON — The key diplomatic relationship between …relationship" between Obama and King Abdullah.
A2 Palestine
Link controls the direction of uniqueness—as long as the US has credibility with Saudi Arabia, interests in the alliance can outweigh and compensate for pressures on Palestine.
World Future Online 9-22-11 - Saudi Official: US Veto for Palestinian State Will Cost Saudi Alliance, http://wfol.tv/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=171:saudi-official-us-veto-for-palestinian-state-will-cost-saudi-alliance
The Saudi Arabian government will …Saudi's in their quest for a homeland!
Palestine dispute won’t escalate as long as Saudis believe the US is a credible ally.
Tobin 9-12-11 – Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine, Jonathan, Saudi Bluff on Palestenians Fools No One, Commentary, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/12/saudis-obama-bluff-veto/
Al-Faisal’s threats are patently absurd. The …for the sake of pique over the Palestinians.
Empirically Saudis aren’t willing to break the relationship over Palestine
Ottaway 9-23-11 – PhD, Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, David, Uncle Sam and the Saudi Split, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/uncle_sam_and_the_saudi_split
But Saudi Arabia and the United States ….their relations effectively froze anyway.
2nc Resiliency
Democracy assistance directly triggers Saudi prolif by destroying faith in the US security guarantee – other forms of relations are irrelevant.
Guzansky 7-1-11 – Research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, Yoel, “Tehran tests Saudis' nerve on nuclear weapons” , The Australian, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555
UNTIL recently it appeared that US security …that help guarantee the continuity of the regime.
Link overwhelms – plan undermines the strategic trust that is the foundation for all cooperation—causes abandonment of US security assurances.
Takeyh 11 – PhD is an Iranian-American Middle East scholar, former United States Department of State official, and a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.[1] He is also an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, Ray, “A Post-American Day Dawns in the Mideast”, 6-8, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/opinion/09iht-edtakeyh09.html?_r=2
For nearly 60 years, Saudi Arabia predicated its ….likely to be seriously contemplated in the House of Saud.
Emotional responses outweigh rational incentives for cooperation.
Molavi 11 – New American Foundation Middle East scholar, Afshin, “The state of the Saudi-U.S. relationship”, 3-22, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/22/the-state-of-the-saudi-u-s-relationship/
At the bureaucratic level, the Saudi-U.S. …to be loyal to Mubarak.
Yes Prolif
Loss of credible US security guarantees causes Saudi prolif.
Bowman 2008 (Bradley L. is a Military Academy Social Sciences Assistant Professor, term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, conducted his fellowship at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee., “Chain Reaction: Avoiding A Nuclear Arms Race In The Middle East,” Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/fact-book/documents/2008/080315-arms-race.pdf SRM)
Those who believe Saudi Arabia would not ….by pursuing an independent nuclear deterrent
NPT can’t stop saudi prolif
Crimi 11 – Frank, Saudi Up the Nuclear Ante, Front Page Magazine, 7-22, http://frontpagemag.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/
Fearful that he will soon face a nuclear-armed …step in the development of a nuclear weapons program.
Links
Plan collapses Saudi relations – they perceive US supported reform in Bahrain as an existential threat.
Ottaway 11 – Fellow @ Carnegie, Marina, Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Carnegie, 4-4, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43416#
Attempts to solve the current crisis in … should take precedence right now.
US action in Bahrain ends Saudi relations – it makes us look like a bad partner which shifts all previous calculations, overcomes resiliency
NPR 11 – Quoting Jon Alterman, Director of Middle East project @ CSIS, Response To Arab Uprisings Causes U.S.-Saudi Rift, 4-6, http://www.npr.org/2011/04/06/135183927/response-to-arab-uprisings-causes-u-s-saudi-rift
Bahrain is a particular concern, he says. "The Saudis saw ….environment, and it will act in its interest."
Bahrain overwhelms resiliency of Saudi relations
ICG 2011 - International Crisis Group, “Popular Protest In North Africa And The Middle East (Viii): Bahrain’s Rocky Road To Reform”, 7-28, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf
Following on the heels of the Tunisian and …movements in Libya and Syria, but not in Bahrain.
Saudis view any US backing of reform in Bahrain as an existential threat – nothing could repair the damage to relations. Backlash independently collapses the economy.
Cooper 11 - HELENE COOPER and MARK LANDLER, Interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran Collide, With the U.S. in the Middle, NYT, 3-17, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/18diplomacy.html
Relations between the United States and Saudi ….the path to Mubarak’s fate.”
**Case**
No Pullout
Saudi crackdown makes the Bahrain regime resilient – blocks any change.
Stratfor 6-30-11 - The Greater Game in Bahrain, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/06/30/the_greater_game_in_bahrain_99573.html
According to rumors cited by anonymous ….largest Shiite opposition group, Al Wefaq.
No 5th fleet kick out.
NYT 11 - Pentagon Watching Unrest in Bahrain, 2-17
And thus far, Navy officers are quick to …of the base or those piers,” she said.
No kickout.
Stimson 11 - Anchors Away: The Future Of The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet In Bahrain, July 21, stimson center, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/
As of mid-July, the situation in Bahrain …these scenarios from materializing.
No 5th fleet pullout.
Haass 11 – HuffPost Reporter, Samuel, Navy Staying in Bahrain, State Department Says, Huffington Post, 7-21, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/21/navy-bahrain-state-department_n_906193.html
WASHINGTON -- American officials are ….necessary reforms,” the State Department official said.
No risk of pullout – Agreement extended to 2016
Fifield and Dhabi, ’11 [Anna Fifield in Washington and Camilla Hall in Abu Dhabi, 9/1/11, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6bdc0118-d40b-11e0-b7eb-00144feab49a.html#axzz1XUbBP6OE]
The US and Bahrain secretly extended their …years in 2002, pushing it out until 2016.
Pentagon blocks US withdrawal.
European Phoenix 11 - US Fifth Fleet Unwilling to Move out of Bahrain, 7-21, http://europeanphoenix.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=278%3Aus-fifth-fleet-unwilling-to-move-out-of-bahrain&catid=35%3Apolitica&lang=en
Although a number of politicians in …already-damaged reputation.
Other places solve
Fifth fleet presence not necessary – alternatives solve.
Koplovsky 6 - Michael Koplovsky, Joint Military Operations Department at the US Naval War College, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”, October 23, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf
Despite adamant arguments outlining the ….operating base in the Persian Gulf.
Regional allies compensate loss of the 5th fleet.
Gresh 10 – research fellow and doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Geoffrey, Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz, the fletcher forum of world affairs, 34.1, http://ui04e.moit.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/34-1pdfs/34-1_Gresh.pdf
Instead of maintaining a strong naval …operational support.
NAVAL POWER DEFENSE
No impact to naval power
Rhodes 5 - Dr. Edward Rhodes is dean for the Social and Behavioral Sciences at Rutgers University.
A former International Affairs Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, he has
served in the Strategy and Concepts Branch of the Navy Staff, “. . . From the Sea” and Back Again
Naval Power in the Second American Century, Naval War College Review, Spring 1999, Vol. 52, No. 2, http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press/Newport-Papers/Documents/24-pdf.aspx, p. 172-6
The lack of evidence in support of a …..interests of either the nation or the Navy.
Short term shift is possible – gulf allies will adopt burden sharing to handle the fifth fleet.
Gundun 11 – political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst, James, Winds of Change Rocking Bahrains Fifth Fleet, The Trench (blog), 7-22, http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/winds-of-change-rocking-bahrains-fifth.html
Two sites under consideration in the ….sense logistically and geopolitically.
Alternative force postures quickly solve.
Koplovsky 6 - Michael Koplovsky, Joint Military Operations Department at the US Naval War College, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”, October 23, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf
Large, permanent, forward U.S. bases (MOBs) are ….place and at the right time to succeed.
Empirically proven—bahrain not key.
Jones 11 – Toby C. Jones is assistant professor of history at Rutgers University. He is author of Desert Kingdom: How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia and an editor at Middle East Report, Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet, The Atlantic, June 10, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/2/?single_page=true
There are a number of reasons why the Fifth Fleet may ….would be a good place to start.
Other gulf allies solve case.
Koplovsky 6 - Michael Koplovsky, Joint Military Operations Department at the US Naval War College, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”, October 23, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf
The United States has other forward presence ….inside the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
No Impact to Heg
Constraints on hegemony will force peaceful drawdown of commitments – solves great power wars.
MacDonald and Parent 11 – Asst Prof. of PoliSci @ Williams College and Parent, Asst Prof. PoliSci @ U of Miami, Paul and Joseph, “Graceful Decline?” International Security, 35.4, Project MUSE
Implications for Sino-U.S. Relations Our findings ….transitions and hegemonic change.
Our evidence uses the best data.
MacDonald and Parent 11 – Asst Prof. of PoliSci @ Williams College and Parent, Asst Prof. PoliSci @ U of Miami, Paul and Joseph, “Graceful Decline?” International Security, 35.4, Project MUSE
Paul and Joseph, “Graceful Decline?”, International Security, 35.4, Project MUSE
In this article, we question the logic and ….that failed to retrench recovered their relative position
No transition wars—Regional geography and co-operation checks.
Press et al 97 – Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press are doctoral candidates in the Department of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Harvey M. Sapolsky is Professor of Public Policy and Organization in the Department of Political Science at M.I.T. and Director of the M.I.T. Defense and Arms Control Studies (DACS) Program. This paper began as a project for the DACS Working Group on Defense Politics, “Come home, America”, International Security, Spring97, Vol. 21, Issue 4
The selective engagers' strategy is wrong for two ….someone else's faraway great power war.
***other cards (not extended) |
1nc can’t say substantial
A. you can’t say substantial in the plan – it’s unacceptable for policy debates
Nagin, 2004
(Stephen E., Attorney for Respondents before the Federal Trade Comission: Basic Research, A.G. Waterhouse, Klein-Becker USA, Nutrasport, SÖVAGE DERMALOGIC LABORATORIES, Ban, Dennis Gay, Daniel B. Mowrey, “United states of America Before Federal Trade Commission,” June 28, http://www.ftc.gov/os/adjpro/d9318/040628respmodefinitestmnt.pdf)
The Commission’s failure to define ….people and prosecutors alike.’”).
B. this is a voting issue
1. ground – it’s impossible to know what the plan means, that’s obviously the minimum requirement for our answers to it. Also kills education because they don’t know what the plan does.
2. no solvency – Nagin says the plan would be declared unconstitutional.
1nc t – democracy assistance
Democracy assistance is direct material and technical support to democratic institutions and initiatives. That is distinct from overseeing transition
Lappin 10 – Ph .D . candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium . Richard has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, Richard, What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratization, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 4.1, http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf
Democracy assistance can be most ….a broader democracy promotion paradigm
Prefer it
A. Limits – they cause a completely new topic: allowing sanctions, conditioning, diplomacy and military action. This makes in-depth neg research impossible because there are too many affs.
B. Precision – our interpretation is the only predictable one with intent to define democracy assistance.
Topicality is a voter, it tells people what to prepare for.
1NC fasching
Debate is fundamentally a choice about the creation of community. The Sacred order defines itself through fixity and confidence in the truth of one’s identities and of one’s national stories. The Sacred order necessitates domination and the eradication of the profane other. The Holy Community seeks self transcendence through the recognition of multiple truths and the affirmation of human dignity.
Fasching and deChant 2001(Darrell J., Professor of Religious Studies at the University of South Florida, Dell, Director of Religious Studies in the Department of Religious Studies at the University of South Florida, Comparative Religious Ethics: A Narrative Approach, Pp. 10)
Human religiousness is defined by two ….not share my identity and my stories.
Democracy assistance is the sacred order. The affirmative provides assistance only in so far as recipient countries can be of utility to the United States. This approach to democracy assistance guarantees domination and reification of sovereign violence
Ghannoushi 2011 (Soumaya, is a researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies. "Obama, hands off our spring" May 26 2011 www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring)
The US wants to turn the Arab revolutions…. while occupying and aiding occupation.
The apologetic theology of the sacred order embodied in the affirmatives Democracy Assistance accepts the other as a means of converting that other to sameness. This approach to the stranger guarantees extinction through nuclear apocalypse.
The alternative is alienated theology.
The alternative is key to bring about the Holy Community by rejecting our own version of truth and instead seeking truth through difference and the experience of the stranger.
Fasching1993(Darrell J. Fasching is a Professor of Religious Studies at the University of South Florida, The Ethical Challenge of Aushwitz and Hiroshima, Pp. 5-8)
The best way to describe the …. cloud of a nuclear apocalypse that such a path risks.
Fifth Fleet
Saudi crackdown makes the Bahrain regime resilient – blocks any change.
Stratfor 6-30-11 - The Greater Game in Bahrain, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/06/30/the_greater_game_in_bahrain_99573.html
According to rumors cited by anonymous Bahraini and Saudi government sources on Tuesday, the 1,000-plus Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) force, deployed to ….Shiite opposition group, Al Wefaq.
No 5th fleet kick out.
NYT 11 - Pentagon Watching Unrest in Bahrain, 2-17
And thus far, Navy officers are quick to point ….the base or those piers,” she said.
No kickout.
Stimson 11 - Anchors Away: The Future Of The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet In Bahrain, July 21, stimson center, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/
As of mid-July, the situation in Bahrain has ….scenarios from materializing.
Fifth fleet presence not necessary – alternatives solve.
Koplovsky 6 - Michael Koplovsky, Joint Military Operations Department at the US Naval War College, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”, October 23, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf
Despite adamant arguments outlining …forward operating base in the Persian Gulf.
Regional allies compensate loss of the 5th fleet.
Gresh 10 – research fellow and doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Geoffrey, Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz, the fletcher forum of world affairs, 34.1, http://ui04e.moit.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/34-1pdfs/34-1_Gresh.pdf
Instead of maintaining a strong naval ….Gulf with minimal U.S. operational support.
No impact to naval power
Rhodes 5 - Dr. Edward Rhodes is dean for the Social and Behavioral Sciences at Rutgers University.
A former International Affairs Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, he has
served in the Strategy and Concepts Branch of the Navy Staff, “. . . From the Sea” and Back Again
Naval Power in the Second American Century, Naval War College Review, Spring 1999, Vol. 52, No. 2, http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press/Newport-Papers/Documents/24-pdf.aspx, p. 172-6
The lack of evidence in support of a ….of either the nation or the Navy.
Iran’s regional hegemony is collapsing – they can’t influence Bahrain.
Khalaji 11 – Sr Fellow @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Mehdi, Iran's Policy Confusion About Bahrain, Real Clear World, 6-28, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/06/28/irans_policy_confusion_about_iran_99568.html
CONFUSION ABOUT BAHRAIN The protests ….event of confrontation with their governments.
Hegemony
Constraints on hegemony will force peaceful drawdown of commitments – solves great power wars.
MacDonald and Parent 11 – Asst Prof. of PoliSci @ Williams College and Parent, Asst Prof. PoliSci @ U of Miami, Paul and Joseph, “Graceful Decline?” International Security, 35.4, Project MUSE
Implications for Sino-U.S. Relations Our ….of power transitions and hegemonic change.
Retrenchment prevents extended deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war with Russia.
Bandow 2009 - Senior Fellow @ Cato Institute and Former Special Adviser to Reagan, Doug, “More Friends, More War”, Cato Institute, July 13, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10348
Today, however, Washington hands out security …would have to be on the United States.
Hegemony destroys effective institutions global public goods.
Ikenberry et al 9 - G. John Ikenberry is a professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, Michael Mastanduno is a professor of government and associate dean for social sciences at Dartmouth College, William C. Wohlforth is a professor of government at Dartmouth College, “Unipolarity, State Behavior, and Systemic Consequences”, World Politics, 61.1, Jan, MUSE
Unipolarity and Revisionism: Is the Unipole a ….attempts to mask the actual pursuit of private goods.
Extinction.
DC 4 – Magazine for Development and Cooperation, funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Where Markets Fail, March, http://www.inwent.org/E+Z/content/archive-eng/03-2004/edit_art1.html
There are also public goods at the global ….successful they might turn out.
Hegemony causes prolif, makes collapse and war inevitable.
Jervis 9 – Professor of international politics at Columbia University, Robert, World Politics, 61.1, Jan, MUSE
Failure would not mean that the …scholars and national leaders. [End Page 213]
Hegemonic decline causes a concert of power – solves instability.
Lind 2006 – JD, Guest Lecturer @ Harvard, President of the New America Foundation, Michael, The American Way of Strategy, p. 187-8
A concert of power strategy serves ….strength, not to encourage their weakness.
Concert of interests is probable—great powers have aligned interests.
Lind 7- JD, Guest Lecturer @ Harvard, Sr Fellow @ New America foundation, “Beyond American Hegemony”, New America Foundation, May, http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2007/beyond_american_hegemony_5381
A concert-of-power strategy would …terrorism, anarchy and aggression by lesser states.