The United States federal government should provide political organization training for the Syrian National Council.
Contention One is Credibility─
All time low-aggressive engagement is key to reverse it.
Hamid 10/1 Shadi Hamid, 10/1/11, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,0
Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers
AND
of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.
Rhetoric is insufficient, inaction over Syria destroys credibility and fuels rapid middle-East Adventurism
Gordon 8-20-11 J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ <http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB> //MG
With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called
AND
regimes to build up their own military arsenals.
Syria is the lynchpin of anti-Americanism in the Middle-East. Action is critical to maintain leadership, stabilize the region and break Iran’s influence.
Satloff ’11. Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Iran and Syria: Next Steps. ” Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives. Committee on Foreign Affairs
6-23-11.
Nowhere is this more the case than with
AND
and act—with similar clarity and determination.
Scenario A-Hegemony
Failure in the middle-east shatters hegemony globally─
Etzioni ’11. Amatai Etzioni is a Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. “The Coming Test of US Credibility.” Military Review April 2011. Available Online @ [http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf]
As of the beginning of 2011, these
AND
and live up to its commitments overseas. MR
Wars go nuclear─
Kagan 11 - Senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3
• American forces deployed in East Asia and
AND
those years powerful isolationists could not prevent it.
Collapse causes lash-out.
Goldstein ‘7 (Avery, Professor of
AND
Volume 30, Issue 4 & 5 August)
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical
AND
the period prior to the possible crossover.19
Scenario 2 is Asia─
Middle Easy credibility is critical to manage India-China competition in the region. Inaction destabilizes the region and erodes U.S. Asian leadership.
Alterman, 11 Jon Alterman, CSIS Middle East Senior Fellow, May 2011, The Middle East Turns East, csis.org/files/publication/0511_MENC.pdf
An increasing U.S. orientation toward
AND
maintaining a strong position in the Middle East.
Absence of U.S. influence leads to Asia War, Proliferation, and Nuclear terrorism
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-5
A third scenario, Asian Balance of Power
AND
of radicalism and proliferation—particularly nuclear terrorism.
Asian wars go nuclear
Landy, National Security Expert @ Knight Ridder, 3/10/’2K
(Jonathan, Knight Ridder, lexis)
Few if any experts think China and Taiwan
AND
last year, according to the Commerce Department.
Scenario 2 is Iran
Lack of US credibility in Middle-East is fueling their nuclear and military adventurism.
Segall 9-15-11 IDF Lt
AND
_%22Islamic_Awakening%22> //MG
According to Iran's appraisal, the power of
AND
power plant to the national electricity grid.4
Iranian adventurism destabilizes the middle east-wars will go nuclear.
Lindsay & Takeyh 10 (James M. Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “After Iran Gets the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb?page=show)
The dangers of Iran's entry into the nuclear
AND
challenge U.S. policies more aggressively.
Causes Iran/Israel War
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the
AND
defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Longer-Term Use Scenarios The preceding scenarios
AND
and also potentially killing large numbers of Muslims.
U.S. will get drawn in-extinction.
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the
AND
defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
In describing near-term regional scenarios that
AND
response – a potential “Armageddon” scenario.
Contention 2 is Civil War
It’s inevitable─
Dyer 10-8-11 Gwynne Dyer has worked as a freelance journalist, columnist, broadcaster and lecturer on international affairs for more than 20 years, but he was originally trained as an historian. Born in Newfoundland, he received degrees from Canadian, American and British universities, finishing with a Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London. “Civil war coming to Syria?” [http://www.straight.com/article-482171/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-civil-war-coming-syria] //MG
Now it’s Syria’s turn, and yet again
AND
, and it will be all but inevitable.
Causes fast Middle-East conflict and Iran/Saudi proxy wars.
Nasr 11 - Vali Nasr is professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future, If The Arab Spring Turns Ugly, NYT, 8-28, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html
THE Arab Spring is a hopeful chapter in
AND
to Iraq to the Persian Gulf and beyond.
Proxy wars escalate and draw in the U.S.
Jain ’11 Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to
AND
complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War─
Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East and Asia has
AND
minute if inhaled or absorbed through the skin.
Pressure means Obama intervenes directly-Conflict spills over quickly.
Dreyfuss 8-31-11 – contributing editor for The Nation, profiled as a leading investigative journalist by the Columbia Journalism Review (Robert, “Model Behavior? Libyan Ideas in Syria,” [http://www.npr.org/2011/08/31/140084052/the-nation-model-behavior-libyan-ideas-in-syria] //MGMeanwhile, the Washington Post reports that Syrian rebels, stymied by Assad's heavy-handed repression, are increasingly debating calls for taking up arms and asking the United States and NATO to intervene militarily on their behalf. In an article headlined, "Calls in Syria for weapons, NATO intervention," the Post tells us: "The success of Libya's rebels in toppling their dictator is prompting calls within the Syrian opposition for armed rebellion and NATO intervention after nearly six months of overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations that have failed to dislodge President Bashar Assad.... Protesters in recent days have carried banners calling for a no-fly zone over Syria akin to the one that facilitated the Libyan revolt." The Post accompanies that article with a scary piece warning that Assad has "weapons of mass destruction," i.e., chemical weapons. President Obama is not President Bush, and I don't think that for a moment that Obama is seeking excuses to bomb and invade Middle East countries, as Bush was. Not do I think that Obama, preoccupied with the dismal economic mess that threatens to elect Rick Perry, wants to make foreign policy adventures his chief concern, although the White House might welcome a war or two to take Americans' minds off unemployment and stagnation. But there's a kind of inexorability to these things. Just as Obama intervened reluctantly in Libya, only after he came under intense pressure from neoconservatives and humanitarian interventionists, it's all too possible that an intensified crisis in Syria, and even Iran, could lead Obama to seek NATO support for things like no-fly zones, blockades of shipping, and even air strikes. What if, say, one of Syria's major cities, say, Hama, was taken over by rebels, à la Benghazi? Or what if one of Iran's cities, say, Shiraz, was seized by anti-regime forces there? It's fair to say that Syria and Iran are far more difficult cases than Libya, a empty desert nation whose civil conflict was likely not to spread. By contrast, war in Syria could affect Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, and war in Iran could have incalculable consequences from Pakistan and Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf. Still, you can already imagine the drumbeat from neocons and liberal interventionists that the United States cannot allow Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred.
Syria will respond with Bioweapons
Dekker 7 - consultant to the NATO Defense Establishment in bio-warfare and counter terrorism, Jill, “Syria’s Bio-Warfare Threat: an interview with Dr. Jill Dekker”, Interviewed by Jerry Gordon in the New English Review, Dec, http://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm/frm/13108/sec_id/13108
Dekker: Contrary to how the US State
AND
be very concerned about that re-designation.
Pathogens spread globally─
Shamis and Shalem 2 - Diora Shamis and Shalem 2 is Chief Editor and CEO; Diane Shalem, English Editor and Head of Research. Both had long records as international correspondents with mainstream media before opening DEBKAfile, “Pandemic Potential in Mid East Bio Warfare”, DebkaFile, 12/23, http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=227
The danger of biological warfare turning into a
AND
across the borders would have the same effect.
Extinction─
Singer 1 (Clifford E., professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, “Will mankind survive the millennium?” Bulletin of the program in Arms Control Disarmament, and International Security, 13:1, Swords and Ploughshares, http://acdis.illinois.edu/assets/docs/312/WillMankindSurvivetheMillennium.pdf)
There are, however, two technologies currently
AND
in question when and if this is achieved.
Intervention causes war with Russia-The impact is extinction─
Kah ‘3. Gary H. Kah is former Europe and Middle East trade specialist. Government of Indiana. “War With Iraq: The Aftermath.” Available Online @ [http://www.crossroad.to/articles2/2003/kah/war-aftermath.htm]
North Korea has nuclear weapons - and the
AND
at any price would be the driving force.
Organization assistance is key to SNC credibility and minority inclusion. That’s critical to solve transition chaos.
Shaikh 10-12-11. Salman Shaikh is the director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “Preventing a Syrian Civil War.” [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html] //MG
The United States should also recognize the Syrian
AND
act quickly, Syria will descend into chaos.
Regime-led reform is out of the question. U.S. led transition and engagement is crucial to limit violence.
Doran and Shaikh 11 [Michael S.
AND
]
The question for Washington, then, is
AND
allowing a genuine process of transition to begin.
Organization training is feasible and critical to build confidence in regime post-Assad.
Karlin & Tabler 5-25-11. Mara Karlin, Instructor in Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Andrew Tabler, The Washington Institute. Obama's Push-Pull Strategy: How Washington Should Plan for a Post-Assad Syria. Available Online @ <http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1638>
As the United States works to push Assad
AND
of the United States' most problematic regional adversaries.
