Stability/Civil War Adv.
It’s inevitable
Dyer 10-8-11 Gwynne Dyer has worked as a freelance journalist, columnist, broadcaster and lecturer on international affairs for more than 20 years, but he was originally trained as an historian. Born in Newfoundland, he received degrees from Canadian, American and British universities, finishing with a Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London. “Civil war coming to Syria?” [http://www.straight.com/article-482171/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-civil-war-coming-syria] //MG
Now it’s Syria’s turn, and yet again
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, and it will be all but inevitable.
Reforms are cosmetic-They don’t solve─
Khalifa 10-27-11. Asif Khalifa Global Arab Network. “Syria: Assad Reform - Myths and Reality.” [http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/2011102712217/Syria-Politics/syria-bashar-assad-reform-myths-and-reality.html] //MG
5. Myth: President Assad is committed
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can no longer claim to lead the country.
Causes fast Middle-East conflict
Nasr 11 - Vali Nasr is professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future, If The Arab Spring Turns Ugly, NYT, 8-28, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html
THE Arab Spring is a hopeful chapter in
AND
to Iraq to the Persian Gulf and beyond.
Proxy wars escalate and draw in the U.S.
Jain ’11 Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to
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complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.
Civil War independently draws in every great power─
Bacik, 10-16-11[GÖKHAN, Columnist, Today’s Zaman, “Vying for Syria: Will the Cold War really end this time?”http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-260013--vying-for-syria-will-the-cold-war-really-end-this-time.html]
Russia and China recently vetoed a draft resolution
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Syria will generate existential outcomes for other states.
Nuclear and CBW War─
Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East and Asia has
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minute if inhaled or absorbed through the skin.
Pathogens spread globally─
Shamis and Shalem 2 - Diora Shamis and Shalem 2 is Chief Editor and CEO; Diane Shalem, English Editor and Head of Research. Both had long records as international correspondents with mainstream media before opening DEBKAfile, “Pandemic Potential in Mid East Bio Warfare”, DebkaFile, 12/23, http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=227
The danger of biological warfare turning into a
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across the borders would have the same effect.
Extinction─
Singer 1 (Clifford E., professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, “Will mankind survive the millennium?” Bulletin of the program in Arms Control Disarmament, and International Security, 13:1, Swords and Ploughshares, http://acdis.illinois.edu/assets/docs/312/WillMankindSurvivetheMillennium.pdf)
There are, however, two technologies currently
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in question when and if this is achieved.
Pressure overcomes policy of non-intervention
Dreyfuss 8-31-11 – contributing editor for The Nation, profiled as a leading investigative journalist by the Columbia Journalism Review (Robert, “Model Behavior? Libyan Ideas in Syria,” [http://www.npr.org/2011/08/31/140084052/the-nation-model-behavior-libyan-ideas-in-syria] //MGMeanwhile, the Washington Post reports that Syrian rebels, stymied by Assad's heavy-handed repression, are increasingly debating calls for taking
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to be massacred.
Ensures war with Russia-The impact is extinction─
Kah ‘3. Gary H. Kah is former Europe and Middle East trade specialist. Government of Indiana. “War With Iraq: The Aftermath.” Available Online @ [http://www.crossroad.to/articles2/2003/kah/war-aftermath.htm]
North Korea has nuclear weapons - and the
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at any price would be the driving force.
Iran is using Syria to lock in Middle East Hegemony-fast regime collapse means they influence the new government. US engagement is key.
Zirulnick ‘11 Ariel, Christian Science Monitor “US officials: Iran helping Syria's Assad put down protests.” Available Online @ http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0414/US-officials-Iran-helping-Syria-s-Assad-put-down-protests //MG
Iran is providing Syria
tensions in the region.
Syria is the lynchpin of anti-Americanism in the region. Only engagement with protests limits Iran’s influence and stabilizes the region.
Satloff ’11. Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Iran and Syria: Next Steps. ” Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives. Committee on Foreign Affairs
6-23-11.
Nowhere is this more the case than
with similar clarity and determination
Failure to limit Iran’s influence shatters hegemony globally.
Etzioni ’11. Amatai Etzioni is a Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. “The Coming Test of US Credibility.” Military Review April 2011. Available Online @ <http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf>
As of the beginning of 2011,
and live up to its commitments overseas
That prevents wars from going nuclear.
Kagan 11 - Senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3
• American forces deployed
isolationists could not prevent it.
Lack of US credibility in Middle-East is fueling their nuclear and military adventurism.
Segall 9-15-11 IDF Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall, an expert on strategic issues with a focus on Iran, terrorism, and the Middle East, is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. Vol. 11, No. 15“Iran Sees New Opportunity for Regional Domination Despite Turkish Competition.” <http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=8713&TTL=The_%22Arab_Spring%22:_An_Opportunity_for_Iran's_%22Islamic_Awakening%22> //MG
According to Iran's appraisal
power plant to the national electricity grid
Iranian adventurism destabilizes the middle east-wars will go nuclear.
Lindsay & Takeyh 10 (James M. Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “After Iran Gets the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb?page=show)
The dangers of Iran's
foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively.
Causes Iran/Israel War
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and held a variety of positions @ Office of the Asst. Secretary Defense for International Security, James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Proliferation Papers, IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring, http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Longer-Term Use Scenarios
potentially killing large numbers of Muslims.
U.S. will get drawn in-extinction.
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and held a variety of positions @ Office of the Asst. Secretary Defense for International Security, James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Proliferation Papers, IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring, http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
In describing near-term regional scenarios that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, three parties present themselves as principal candidates to cross the nuclear threshold: Israel, Iran and
– a potential “Armageddon” scenario
