1nc
Relations
Unique Link - pushing democracy assistance will collapse US-Saudi relations
Tarpley 2011 (Press TV interview with Webster Griffin Tarpley, author, journalist and lecturer from Washington, June 18, "Saudi Arabia alarmed by US intentions" http://www.presstv.com/detail/189582.html, SRM)
Webster Griffin Tarpley: Well, I think we have to start from the premise that the Saudi royal family is very afraid and they've been afraid of course for decades, … that the US has fomented the troubles in Bahrain both of those are means to destabilize the kingdom.
Relations decline over the Arab Spring will drive the Saudis to proliferate
Guzansky July 1st, 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council; "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)
UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees would be a preferred alternative to Riyadh's pursuit of a nuclear option. …The same week that the UN nuclear watchdog raised new concerns of ``undisclosed nuclear-related activities in Iran'' it was reported that Saudi Arabia was to build 16 nuclear reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.
Saudi prolif leads to fast regional prolif
Center for Contemporary Conflict 2004 (“Conference on WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century” http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/si/si_3_8/si_3_8_ruj01.pdf)
James Russell from the Naval Postgraduate School presented an argument that the strategic problems facing Saudi Arabia are causing it to consider acquisition of nuclear capabilities in the context of upgrading and/or replacing its CSS-2 missiles bought from China in the late 1980s. … Discussions of the issue raised the question, “Are Saudi nuclear noises used as a means to ensure U.S. engagement?
Rapid prolif causes pre-emptive nuclear war.
Heurlin 2005 (Jean Monnet Professor of European Security and Integration at the Department of Political Science of the University of Copenhagen, and Sten Rynning, "Missile defence", p 162-3)
Arms control and non-proliferation regimes have often been criticized for delaying but not preventing proliferation. … and a broad range of counter-proliferation measures are therefore to be preferred in addition to the cost-enhancing MD project.
Budget
North Korean NGOs are being funded now, but at risk of cuts.
Rogin 11 – Josh, State Department budget request may be dead on arrival on Capitol Hill, Foreign Policy (Cable Blog), 2-14, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/state_department_budget_request_may_be_dead_on_arrival_on_hill
"We had to make tradeoffs. …The funds allocated for North Korea which was being used to fund non-governmental organizations, not the North Korean government could still come out of general funds.
Plan trades off.
Carothers 5- VP @ Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace, Thomas, Critical mission: essays on democracy promotion, p. 45
It should be noted that the Republican-controlled Congress has done little to increase the place of democracy building in U.S. policy. … Only by taking money away from already lightly funded democracy-building activities in other countries was the administration able to create special initiatives in those two important transitions.
Democracy assistance solves North Korean democracy and proliferation.
Democracy Digest 10 – Quoting NED President Gershman, North Korea: regime change, collapse or resilience?, 10-25, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2010/10/north-korea-regime-change-collapse-or-resilience/
Ten years after calling for an end to the silence over the regime’s human rights abuses and atrocities, … He credited the NED with funding efforts to publicize conditions within North Korea and disseminate information within the closed state, including NKNet’s broadcasts of spontaneous protests that regularly occur.
Nuke war.
Cimbala 10 - Prof. of Political Science @ Penn State, (Stephen, Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century, p. 117-8)
Failure to contain proliferation in Pyongyang could spread nuclear fever throughout Asia. … thus triggering a mistaken preemption.
PTX
SKFTA will pass but political capital is key and increased spending will collapse the deal
ABC News September 8 ("Commerce Confident Trade Agreements Will Pass" http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/commerce-confident-trade-agreements-will-pass/)
As the battle of the job plans reaches its pinnacle tonight with President Obama’s speech to a joint session of Congress, … “At a time of fiscal austerity it passed muster on that score so on that basis we believe that there will be a significant number of votes in support of Trade Adjustment Systems.”
SKFTA solves Korean war
Wharton, 1-12-11. “U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?” Wharton – Knowledge (UPenn), http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671.
Last March, when President Obama announced his National Export Initiative, aimed at doubling U.S. exports by 2014, critics argued that this ambitious goal was unrealistic. …. The President has put his reputation on the line
Extinction
Hayes and Green 2009 (Peter Hayes & Michael Hamel-Green on December 14, 2009 (Professor of International Relations at RMIT University; Dean of and Professor in the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development at Victoria University, “Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia,” Asian Pacific Journal)
The international community is increasingly aware that cooperative diplomacy is the most productive way to tackle the multiple, interconnected global challenges facing humanity, not least of which is the increasing proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. …The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
CP
Text: The European Union should substantially increase support to strengthen capacity for Syrian political opposition groups.
The EU solves democracy promotion in the Arab world
Abboud 2010 (Noufal Abboud was Project Coordinator at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) project on Democracy in the Arab Word, focusing on elections, political parties and women’s participation in politics in Egypt, Yemen and Jordan. He has a MA in Human Rights from Mahidol University, Thailand, and a Licence en Droit (BA in Law) from University Hassan II in Casablanca, Morocco; "Regenerating the State in the Arab World: The Role Of the European Union in Democracy Building"; http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Abboud_low_1.pdf, SRM)
It is only with knowledge of the local and regional realities of the Arab world that the EU can play a role in regenerating the role of the state in democracy building in the region. … Conditionality, incentives and sanctions are still efficient but the specificities of the subregions of the Maghreb, the Middle East and the Gulf show that adjustment to the predisposition to accept changes towards democracy remains a factor which the EU can use to play the role of either catalyst or teacher.
The EU is comparatively more effective than the US at democracy promotion - Arab perception
Abboud 2010 (Noufal Abboud was Project Coordinator at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) project on Democracy in the Arab Word, focusing on elections, political parties and women’s participation in politics in Egypt, Yemen and Jordan. He has a MA in Human Rights from Mahidol University, Thailand, and a Licence en Droit (BA in Law) from University Hassan II in Casablanca, Morocco; "Regenerating the State in the Arab World: The Role Of the European Union in Democracy Building"; http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Abboud_low_1.pdf, SRM)
Finally, the Arab world desperately needs a positive political narrative for political change. … Democracy means that everyone can live in a country in which prejudice, insularity and fear are replaced by the great Arab and Islamic traditions of tolerance, diversity and justice.
Coercion
(A) Link:
Spending tax money is authoritarian and the moral equivalent of forced labor.
Marjorie E. Kornhauser, Professor of Law Tulane Law School, Fall 2002
Buffalo Law Review, Legitimacy and the Right of Revolution, The Role of Tax Protests and Anti-Tax Rhetoric in America, 50 Buffalo L. Rev. 819
This second view of taxation, under which the people grant the state only limited rights of taxation, emphasizes the split between "we" the people and "they" the government, which is so important to the American conception of sovereignty. …Taxation, in this view, can be an illegitimate use of power that ultimately can undermine the legitimacy of the state itself by abusing the authority granted to it by the people.
(B) Impact:
- Any coercion brings us one step closer to the genocidal nightmares of Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union
Browne, former Libertarian presidential candidate, 1995
(Harry, executive director of public policy at American Liberty Foundation, editor of Liberty Magazine, financial advisor and economist, Why Government Doesn’t Work, pg 66-67)
The reformers of the Cambodian revolution claimed to be building a better world. …, and to cover up the damage of all the failed government programs that came before.
2. Moral side constraint
Petro, Wake Forest Professor in Toledo Law Review, 1974
(Sylvester, Spring, page 480)
However, one may still insist, echoing Ernest Hemingway - "… every invasion of freedom must be emphatically identified and resisted with undying spirit.
Civil War
Assad will stay in power now.
Hesain 11 - Ed Husain, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies @ CFR, Why Assad Need Not Fear Qaddafi’s Fate, Council on Foreign Relations, August 23, 2011, http://www.cfr.org/syria/why-assad-need-not-fear-qaddafis-fate/p25702
The dramatic scenes in Tripoli are already being seized upon by those keen to depose other despotic regimes. … there have been no high-profile political or military defections, while Mr Assad remains relatively popular among senior military commanders, Syrian mosque clerics, the middle-classes and business leaders.
Regime collapse causes war with Israel and terrorism.
Saab 11 – Research Analyst at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, College Park, Bilal , Syria Goes to War, The National Interest, 4-4, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/syria-goes-war-5103
A new Syrian leadership might be more radical and militant: … This means that more extreme and militant elements of the Brotherhood could openly join ranks with al-Qaeda or allow it to set up shop in the country.
Assad survival key to a Syrian-Israeli peace deal.
Susser 11 - Quoting Moshe Ma'oz, professor emeritus of Hebrew University's Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies, Leslie, Conundrum in Damascus, Jerusalem Post, 4-25, ln
If Assad manages to survive and stabilize the situation, … which is important to him for strategic and emotional reasons," he declares.
Regime collapse causes civil war that spills over to the rest of the region.
Javedanfar 11 – Iranian - Israeli Middle East analyst and the co-author of 'The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran'. He runs the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis Company (meepas) from its offices in Tel Aviv, Israel, Meir, Why Iran Eyes a Syrian Civil War, The Diplomat, 9-2, http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/02/why-iran-eyes-syrian-civil-war/
It is, of course, possible that when the regime falls,…. A civil war might suit it better, as would the ensuing grief for Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Iran
Syria relations not key to Iranian hegemony.
Leverett 11 - Flynt Leverett teaches international affairs at Penn State and is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation. Hillary Mann Leverett teaches at American University and is CEO of Strategic Energy and Global Analysis (STRATEGA), a political risk consultancy, Iran and Syria: America's Middle East pundits get it wrong (again)CNN, 9-1, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/01/iran-and-syria-americas-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again/
One should also question the facile assumption of many American Iran “experts” that Tehran’s regional influence would be fatally damaged by the Assad government’s replacement… Washington needs, instead, to recognize the Islamic Republic’s importance in the regional balance and come to terms with it.
Iran-syria alliance collapse inevitable.
Afrasiabi 11 - Kaveh L, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy, Iran makes a u-turn on Syria, Asia Times, 9-1, http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MI01Ak01.html
According to various media reports in Iran, last week's Tehran visit by the Emir of Qatar, …Damascus would then look at Iran as a half-loyal friend that cannot be fully trusted.
Syria rejects US intervention.
Lesch 11 – Prof Mid East History @ Trinity U, David, The Conceptual Gap Between Syria and the U.S. Foreign Policy, 8-17, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/the_conceptual_gap_between_syria_and_the_us
Thus, there is not much the Obama administration can do. … the U.S. has to be careful about intervening more energetically to help the Syrian opposition for fear of discrediting them by attaching a made-in-USA label to it in addition to providing the regime the narrative of threat it has been propagandizing to legitimate the use of force.
Arms race would not be dangerous – states would take many years to build up arms
Gonzalez, founder of NationandState.org, Masters in political science from UCLA and holds awards for predictions on Iraq, 2007
(Nathan, Engaging Iran, Page(s) 137)
However, when it comes to an arms race, Barry R. Posen, a global secu¬rity expert with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), …It is also possible that Iran could accelerate the process of enrichment, achieving a weapon much sooner.
Squo solves
Sabotage and export controls
McManus, 1/16/2011 (Doyle, Washington columnist for the LA Times and winter of the National Press Club’s Edwin Hood Award for reporting on U.S. foreign policy four times, “A nuclear Iran? Not so fast,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-column-iran-20110116,0,2945702.column)
But the full story is more interesting than that. … the Iranians may be running out of maraging steel, a key material for making centrifuges.
No aggression
Walt, 2010 (Stephen M., genius and Harvard professor, “More hype about Iran?” Foreign Policy, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/20/more_hype_about_iran)
One of the more remarkable features about the endless drumbeat of alarm about Iran is that it pays virtually no attention to Iran's actual capabilities, …" If he's right, it suggests that Iran's neighbors might not follow suit even if Iran did "go nuclear" at some point in the future).
2nc
eu cp
The EU solves regional cooperation throughout the arab spring and middle east- prevents their Syria/Israel and iran impacts
Abboud 2010 (Noufal Abboud was Project Coordinator at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) project on Democracy in the Arab Word, focusing on elections, political parties and women’s participation in politics in Egypt, Yemen and Jordan. He has a MA in Human Rights from Mahidol University, Thailand, and a Licence en Droit (BA in Law) from University Hassan II in Casablanca, Morocco; "Regenerating the State in the Arab World: The Role Of the European Union in Democracy Building"; http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Abboud_low_1.pdf, SRM)
At the geopolitical level, the EU could be a platform for interstate relations at the subregional level. … This could bring societies and states in the Arab world much closer and reduce the negative impact of the rivalry between Arabism and Islam.
Civil War
Protests are failing now- this is their warrant to their new sheikh evidence
Cherian 9-7-11 – John Cherian, who was recently in Damascus and Hama, is Associate Editor of Frontline in India, John. Syria: Testing Time, Monthly Review, http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2011/cherian070911.html
Syria remains relatively calm as efforts to destabilise its government through orchestrated attacks by rebels fail. Life in the Syrian capital, Damascus, seems to be continuing as normal. … Government buildings, especially those housing the security forces, were specifically targeted.
External intervention keeps Assad in power.
Saab 11 - Research Analyst at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, Bilal, Long road to freedom: Seven reasons why Syrian protesters have so far failed to topple Assad, Christian Science Monitor, 6-10, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0610/Long-road-to-freedom-Seven-reasons-why-Syrian-protesters-have-so-far-failed-to-topple-Assad/Armed-insurgency
5. External invervention The history of modern Syria is replete with examples of external intervention in the country’s domestic affairs, often causing instability and political violence. … Another example of problematic external intervention is Iran’s alleged role in offering material assistance to the Syrian regime to crack down harder on the protesters.
Business community will stick with Assad – they are key.
Slim 11 - Randa Slim is an adjunct research fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East Institute, Where’s Syria’s Business Community, Foreign Policy, 8-5, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community
The decision by the U.S. Treasury to freeze the assets of Syrian businessman Mohammad Hamsho and his businesses has sent a strong message to a key part of the pro-Assad business community and opened up new possibilities for pressuring the Syrian regime. … But the Syrian business community is not a monolith, and has a variety of perspectives on the value of the current regime. What could change their course?
Their evidence is opposition propaganda.
Swami 8-26-11 – Praveen, Inside Syria's failed rebellion, The Hindu, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article2397096.ece
Ever since the spring uprising in Syria, the most serious challenge to the regime since it took power in 1970, …: Damascus, for example, is more alive with everyday civic life than New Delhi.
mb exists and is gaining power in opposition
WSJ 11 - Brotherhood Raises Syria Profile, 5-17, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576327212414590134.html
The exiled Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, the only antiretime group to ever seriously challenge the Assad government, … "We are supporters, and not creators. The voice of the street is a spokesperson for itself."
Ends Syrian alliance with Iran and militants.
Ben-Meir 10 - Alon Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow at NYU's Center for Global Affairs, An Opportunity for Syrian-Israeli Peace, Huffington Post, 8-5, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/an-opportunity-for-a-syri_b_672588.html
This new political configuration in Lebanon also suggests that, for the right price, Syria would align itself with the Arab world to blunt Iran's ambitions to become the regional hegemony. …Peace with Syria would effectively change the center of gravity of Syrian politics in the region, which is shaped by Damascus' strategic interests.
Negotiations boost US credibility.
Salem 8 – Director Carnegie Middle East Center, Paul, Syrian–Israeli Peace: A Possible Key to Regional Change, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dec, www.carnegieendowment.org/files/syrian_israeli_peace.pdf
Finally, if the United States plays an active role in securing peace between Syria and Israel, … significantly improving the U.S. image in the Arab and Islamic world.
Intensifying protests cause civil war.
Seale 8-24-11 – British journalist and author who specialises in the Middle East, as well as a literary agent and art dealer. He is a former correspondent for The Observer and has interviewed many of the Middle East's most prominent leaders and personalities, Patrick, Syria’s Assad on the Ropes?, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/article/162971/syrias-assad-ropes
All these many relationships—with friends as well as enemies—would risk unraveling if the Assad regime were to fall. … In this, its ruthlessness is no different from that of others.
Civil war causes an EU refugee crisis and a nativist backlash.
Landis 9-6-11 - Joshua Landis is the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor at the University of Oklahoma, Why Western officials don't want the Syrian opposition to take up arms, CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/06/why-western-officials-dont-want-the-syrian-opposition-to-take-up-arms/
Here are 7 reasons why Western officials do not want to encourage the Syrian opposition to take up arms: …Refugees are a major European fear, as most EU countries already feel overwhelmed by new Muslim immigrants who have caused the rise of Islamaphobia in the West.
Collapses the EU
Eggelletion 11 – Andre, The Economic Consequences of Revolutions in the Middle East, Real Deal Talk Blog, 4-16, http://realdealtalk.com/2011/04/16/the-economic-consequences-of-revolutions-in-the-middle-east/
Like hundreds of thousands of suffering Sudanese refugees have flooded into Chad, … the refugee crisis threatens European economic recovery, and poses deeper social problems with integrating a broadening Islamic demographic.
Extinction.
Bruton 01 (John, Former Irish Prime Minister, Report before the Joint Committee on European Affairs, Parliament of Ireland, October, http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm, from Samford University Institute File)
As the Laeken Declaration put it, "Europe needs to shoulder its responsibilities in the governance of globalisation" … Only by coming together in the European Union can we ensure that humanity, and the values which make us, as individuals, truly human, prevail over blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.
US can’t secure WMD fast enough– we don’t know where they are and couldn’t secure them all immediately.
JAY SOLOMON 8-27-11 Wall Street Journal “U.S.,Israel Monitor Suspected Syrian WMD.” <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904009304576532652538547620.html?mod=googlenews_wsj>
Current and former U.S. officials said Syria has at least five sites where it produces chemical-weapons agents, … But the officials said these facilities are difficult to track as they are spread across Syria and centered in such cities as Damascus, Hama, Latakia and Aleppo. Some production facilities are at military facilities that also store Syria's Scud missiles.
Iran
Egyptian and Iraqi cooperation makes Syria irrelevant to Iran.
Afrasiabi 11 - Kaveh L, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy, Iran makes a u-turn on Syria, Asia Times, 9-1, http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MI01Ak01.html
According to various media reports in Iran, last week's Tehran visit by the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, was an important catalyst in shifting Iran's policy away from a blind support for Assad and in favor of a more nuanced approach that emphasizes genuine political reforms. …."There has always been a nagging concern that Assad's regime would sell out Iran in no time if the price was right, but that never happened and Assad we may recall solidly supported Iran during the upheaval of 2009 following the presidential elections," says the Tehran professor.
