Trinity BC
Advantage 1 is Power Projection──
Delays over Syria are eroding U.S. credibility. Inaction to aid opposition will trigger
rapid Middle East adventurism.
Gordon 8-20-11 J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired
Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-
2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ <http://www.foxnews.com/
opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB> MG
With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called for strongman President Bashar Al-Assad to step down – only now that 2,000 pro-
democracy demonstrators have been killed in military assaults with tanks, infantry and naval bombardment.
Such a flawed foreign policy strategy – one that in essence rewards strong dictators and punishes weak
ones, regardless of the direct threat to us – harms our reputation as a world leader and encourages
rogue regimes to build up their own military arsenals.
Syria is the lynchpin of anti-Americanism in the Middle-East. Assad overthrow is
critical to maintain power projection.
Satloff ’11. Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Iran
and Syria: Next Steps. ” Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives. Committee on
Foreign Affairs
6-23-11.
Nowhere is this more the case than with Syria. While the U.S. military is engaged in an important humanitarian mission in Libya, the Middle East’s real
strategic drama is being played out in Syria. ... it is time for the United States to speak—and act—with
similar clarity and determination.
Specifically, Iran is using Syria to lock in Middle East influence and destabilize Arab
Spring movements.
Rettig 9-2-11. Jessica-Politics & Policy Reporter at U.S. News & World Report. Georgetown University.
Universidad de Buenos Aires. “Iran Has Much to Lose if Syria's Assad Falls.” U.S. News and World Report.
Article Available Online @ <http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/09/02/iran-has-much-to-lose-if-
syrias-assad-falls?PageNr=1> MG
The pressure on Syria's Bashar al-Assad continues to build as the international community watches for signs that he might finally be weakening. …So, anything
that undermines Iran's Mediterranean strategy would be seen as a great plus for the United States and its
friends."
Inability to check back Iranian influence in the Middle-East will shatter Hegemony
globally
Etzioni ’11. Amatai Etzioni is a Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. “The
Coming Test of US Credibility.” Military Review April 2011. Available Online @ <http://icps.gwu.edu/files/
2011/03/credibility.pdf>
As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and most others in the Middle East, … this in turn will significantly affect the
ability of the United States to discharge what it sees as its global responsibilities and live up to its
commitments overseas. MR
Hegemony prevents great power wars
Wohlforth ‘9. William C. Wohlforth is a professor of government at Dartmouth College. “Unipolarity,
Status Competition, and Great Power War.” World Politics 61.1. January. Accessed via Project Muse.
… the search for status
will cause people to behave in ways that directly contradict their material interest in security and/or
prosperity.
Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent of the distribution of capabilities.
Wars go nuclear without it
Kagan 11 - Senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”,
Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3
• American forces deployed in East Asia and the Western Pacific have for decades prevented the
outbreak of major war, provided stability, … Even the most determined and in those years powerful
isolationists could not prevent it.
Iranian nuclear adventurism destabilizes the entire Middle-East-triggers rapid prolif
and terrorism.
Lindsay & Takeyh 10 (James M. Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg
Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “After
Iran Gets the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/
james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb?page=show)
The dangers of Iran's entry into the nuclear club are well known: … Friends would respond by distancing
themselves from Washington; foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively.
Instability ensures wars go nuclear and leads to CBW Terrorism.
Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to
nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/
WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East and Asia has given rise to an escalating atomic arms and missiles race …
is believed to be developing chemical weapons using the lethal nerve agents sarin and VX, which shut down the nervous system in under a minute if inhaled or absorbed
through the skin.
Middle East bio-weapon use spreads globally.
Shamis and Shalem 2 - Diora Shamis and Shalem 2 is Chief Editor and CEO; Diane Shalem, English
Editor and Head of Research. Both had long records as international correspondents with mainstream media
before opening DEBKAfile, “Pandemic Potential in Mid East Bio Warfare”, DebkaFile, 12/23, http://
www.debka.com/article.php?aid=227
The danger of biological warfare turning into a pandemic is of particular concern in the Middle East, …
Smuggled goods across the borders would have the same effect.
Extinction.
Singer 1 (Clifford E., professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control,
Disarmament and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, “Will
mankind survive the millennium?” Bulletin of the program in Arms Control Disarmament, and
International Security, 13:1, Swords and Ploughshares, http://acdis.illinois.edu/assets/docs/312/
WillMankindSurvivetheMillennium.pdf)
There are, however, two technologies currently under development that may pose a more serious threat to human survival.
… and thus the survival of a globally connected human family may be in question when and if this is
achieved.
The U.S. will retaliate-goes nuclear.
Conley 3 (Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements,
Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air & Space Power Journal – Spring,
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html)
The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well be the most important
variable in determining the nature of the US reprisal. … nuclear retaliation would be more than just a
possibility, whatever promises had been made.”48
Middle-East adventurism ensures Iran/Israel Nuclear War.
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and held a variety of positions @ Office of the
Asst. Secretary Defense for International Security, James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for
Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Proliferation Papers, IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring,
http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Longer-Term Use Scenarios The preceding scenarios are all based on the premise that near-term systemic weaknesses in the coercive bargaining framework surrounding
Iran’s nuclear program could lead to war and conflict escalation.
it must conduct operations in pursuit of its broader political objective of unifying a purified ummah
and cannot afford to use tactics that may compromise its ability to achieve this objective by giving rise to global revulsion and also potentially killing large numbers of
Muslims.
U.S. will get drawn in-extinction.
…,
Russel 9 – Sr. Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and held a variety of positions @ Office of the
Asst. Secretary Defense for International Security, James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for
Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Proliferation Papers, IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring,
http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
In describing near-term regional scenarios that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, three parties present themselves as principal candidates to cross the nuclear
… In turn, such a nuclear strike would almost certainly prompt an Israeli
and U.S. massive response – a potential “Armageddon” scenario.
threshold: Israel, Iran and the United States.
Advantage Two is Soft Power
Changing American internet policy is at the center of soft power, the internet is a
new domain and battlefield to challenge terrorists like al-Qaeda.
Hallams 2010 – Ellen, King's College London, Joint Services Command and Staff College (DIGITAL
DIPLOMACY: THE INTERNET, THE BATTLE FOR IDEAS & US FOREIGN POLICY, Paper
presented to the Political Studies Association Annual Conference, Edinburgh, 30 March, 2010. http://
www.psa.ac.uk/journals/pdf/5/2010/347_874.pdf, MCL)
On 11 September 2001 (9/11), millions around the world watched, stunned, as al-Qaeda terrorists launched a spectacular attack on the United States, crashing airliners into
…the Bush Administration’s blind faith in the hard power instruments
of the American military has begun to be replaced by a more nuanced “smart power” approach that does not
highprofile targets in New York and Washington DC.
abandon the use of military power, but seeks to combine it with information strategies and public diplomacy.
Soft power & perception is key to effective leadership, solves terrorism and global proliferation
Jervis 9 (professor of international politics at Columbia University. (Robert, Unipolarity: A Structural
Perspective, World Politics Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009)
To say that the system is unipolar is not to argue that the unipole can get everything it wants or that it
has no need for others. .... Success requires that others share the American vision and believe that its
leadership is benign.
Prolif makes every conflict go nuclear.
Horowitz 9 – Dept. PoliSci @ U of Pennsylvania and Former NDT Winner for Emory, Michael, “The
Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?”, Journal of Conflict
Resolution, 53.2, 2/10, Sagepub
This section focuses on how acquiring nuclear weapons influences both the new nuclear state and potential
adversaries. … But their general lack of experience at leveraging their nuclear arsenal and effectively
communicating nuclear threats could mean new nuclear states will be more likely to select adversaries
poorly and to find themselves in disputes with resolved adversaries that will reciprocate militarized
challenges.
The end result is nuclear winter that destroys the vast majority of the world’s
population
Toon et al, 2007 (O. B., Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric
and Space Physics at the University of Colorado Boulder, R. P. Turco, A. Robock, C. Bardeen, L. Oman, and
G. L. Stenchikov, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts
of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/
acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)
To an increasing extent, people are congregating inthe world’s great urban centers, creating
megacities with populations exceeding 10 million individuals. … Such a study should be carried out as well
for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.
And the threat of al Qaeda is real
Clapper 2011 – James R., Director of National Intelligence in the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence for the United States Federal government (Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat
Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,
February 10, 2011, http://dni.gov/testimonies/20110210_testimony_clapper.pdf)
Terrorism will remain at the forefront of our national security threats over the coming year. Robust counterterrorism
(CT) and information sharing efforts continue worldwide, …. Ideologues and clerics in the movement
aggressively exploit issues, such as the presence of US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq and US support
for Israel, to fuel their narrative of a hostile West determined to undermine Islam.
Reaction to nuke terror causes nuclear superpower war.
Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies, Director of Strategic Studies: New Zealand, Senior
Research Associate with Oxford’s Centre for International Studies. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack:
Envisaging Catalytic Effects. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July 2010, pages 571-593)
Washington's early response to a terrorist nuclear attack on its own soil might also raise the
possibility of an unwanted (and nuclear aided) confrontation with Russia and/or China. …American
pressure on that part of the world would almost certainly raise alarms in Moscow that …might require a degree of advanced consultation from Washington that the latter
found itself unable or unwilling to provide.
And expanding internet access is critical to human rights
LA Times, June 3, 2011 – United Nations report: Internet Access is a human right, http://
latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/06/united-nations-report-internet-access-is-a-human-right.html,
MCL
"Given that the Internet has become an indispensable tool for realizing a range of human rights,
combating inequality, and accelerating development and human progress, ensuring universal access to
the Internet should be a priority for all states," …developed in consultation with individuals from all segments of society, including the private sector as well as
relevant Government ministries -– to make the Internet widely available, accessible and affordable to all.
Institutionalizing a human rights protectionism mechanism sends signals globally in
favor of human rights protection and decreases the risk of miscalc and war
Burke-White 4 – Lecturer in Public and International Affairs and Senior Special Assistant to the Dean, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University (William W.,
Spring, “U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND HUMAN RIGHTS: Human Rights and National Security: The Strategic Correlation”, 17 Harv. Hum. Rts. J. 249, Lexis Law)
A foreign policy which accounts for the linkage between human rights and interstate aggression would view a state's human rights record as a potential signaling device for
…institutionalization erodes the ability of the state to coerce its citizens into providing
the resources and human capital necessary for aggressive war.
its international intentions.
n122
Plan: The United States federal government should provide communication,
information exchange, and circumvention mass-media technologies for Syria.
Solvency
Protester resolve will remains strong but access to information technology is crucial
to success─
Vila 8-7-11. Susannah. “MID PROTEST, IS THE SYRIAN ONLINE SPACE REDEFINING
INTERNET FREEDOM?” POSTED IN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, CIVIL RESISTANCE
TACTICS
Accessed 8-7-11. Available Online @ <http://www.movements.org/blog/entry/Syria-Damascus-internet-
freedom-protest-online-activism-facebook-twitter> MG
Despite the challenges of reporting from Syria, a few recent articles have identified the ways that online activism in Syria right now consists
largely of risking one's security to broadcast information from the streets of protest. …. The result is
that the online space, in the context of Syrian protests, is a live battleground wherein the push and pull
between tech savvy dictators and tech savvy, activated citizens unfolds in real time.
Successful protests will exhaust Assad’s ability to lead-U.S. networking support is
critical
Ziadeh June 8, 2011 - Radwan Ziadeh is a former Reagan-Fascell fellow at the National Endowment
for Democracy. (Democracies must support ‘the most liberal and Western-friendly’ of Arab Spring uprisings,
Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/democracies-must-support-the-most-liberal-
and-western-friendly-of-arab-spring-uprisings/,)
The democratic West has provided substantial assistance to support transitions in Tunisia and Egypt,
intervened militarily in Libya and called for the ouster of Yemen’s President Saleh
together and searching for friends who might someday become allies.
Programs exist now and are effective-
Glanz and Markoff 6-12-2011 – James, Afghanistan expert and Baghdad bureau chief for NYT,
John, journalist best known for his work at The New York Times, and a book and series of articles about
the 1990s pursuit and capture of computer hacker Kevin Mitnick. ( U.S. Underwrites Internet Detour
Around Censors, June 12, 2011, NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/world/12internet.html?
pagewanted=4&_r=1&hp,)
…., a viable alternative to Assad’s death-squad regime is beginning to get its act
Obama administration is leading a global effort to deploy “shadow” Internet and mobile phone systems
that dissidents can use to undermine repressive governments that seek to silence them by censoring or shutting down
telecommunications networks. …“So we’re focused on helping them do that, on helping them talk to each other, to
their communities, to their governments and to the world.”
