Contention 1 is the Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood will takeover now.
Trager 11 [Eric Trager Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pennsylvania and Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood” Foreign Affairs. Vol 90. Issue 5. Sep/Oct 2011. EBSCO]
The political transition… cannot happen immediately.

The brotherhood will support Hamas and cause war with Israel – strengthening liberals is solves.
Byman 11 – Sr Fellow @ Saban Center for Middle East Policy and Prof @ Georgetown, Daniel, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power”, Brookings Institution, 2-4, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_protests_byman.aspx
In its rhetoric,… out of control. 

That causes war – economics doesn’t check.
Rubin 11 – Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, THE COMING CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, Middle East Review of International Affairs, March, http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/03/rubin.html
To put it simply… make this distinction.

Military and the US won’t check.
Glick 11 – Masters in Public Policy from Harvard, Jerusalem Post Reporter, Caroline, Our World: Lessons from the embassy takeover, Jerusalem Post, 9-12, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=237719
Since the weekend,… and the presidency.

Egyptian hostility causes Israeli lashout
Alterman 11 – ME Direccto @ CSIS, Jon, Events In Egypt, CSIS, 1-29, http://csis.org/publication/events-egypt
A1: The U.S…throughout the region.

That causes war with Hezbollah and Hamas.
Kelman 7 [Dr. Herbert C Kelman is Richard Clarke Cabot Professor of Social Ethics, emeritus, and co-chair of the Middle East Seminar at Harvard University. ““Israeli-Palestinian Peace: Inching Toward and Looking Beyond Negotiations”” Middle East Policy, Vol XIV. No 3. Fall 2007]
In Israel, recent events…the new reality.

Escalates regionally.
Berger 7 [Robert Berger. CBS News Radio Correspondent, Jerusalem. “War or Peace? The Middle East at the Crossroads” Los Angeles World Affairs Council. On July 19, 2007.]
What you have now…involved and ultimately Iran. 

War escalates to nuclear and bioweapon use – deterrence doesn’t check.
Ahmad 2k – Research Scholar in the Centre for International Politics, Organisation & Disarmament, Omair, The Israeli Nuclear Option, Matrix E-Journal of International Relations (Jawaharlal Nehru University of India), Volume 1 Issue 1, http://jnu-matrix.tripod.com/vol1.htm
So the Israelis…deal with them.

Bioweapons cause extinction.
Singer 1 (Clifford E., professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, “Will mankind survive the millennium?” Bulletin of the program in Arms Control Disarmament, and International Security, 13:1, Swords and Ploughshares, http://acdis.illinois.edu/assets/docs/312/WillMankindSurvivetheMillennium.pdf)
There are, however…this is achieved. 

Miscalculation is likely.
Leser 6
[Steven Leser. “Middle East Conflict - Israel, Syria and Iran Headed for Non-Conventional War likely to Destroy all Three plus Lebanon” OpEdNews. July 30, 2006. http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_060730_middle_east_conflict.htm]
A few years ago… criminal and genocidal.

Extinction
Morgan 9 - Dennis RayHankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea, Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693
Years later, in… in a nuclear winter.

Contention 2 Egypt Relations

Egyptian anti-Americanism is high due to a lack of US support for democracy.
Dayen 11 – Editor of FireDogLake, Egypt Poll Showing Strong Opposition to US Policy Stems from Confused Response to Arab Uprising, FireDogLake, 4-26, http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/04/26/egypt-poll-showing-strong-opposition-to-us-policy-stems-from-confused-response-to-arab-uprising/
David, The other…posture of extremism.

That ends military co-operation.
Byman 11 [Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “Democracy in Egypt: What Are the Risks to the United States?” Brookings Institute. Feb 9, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0209_egypt_democracy_byman.aspx?p=1]  
As the Obama any open support.  

Scenario I - Prolif

US relations prevent Egyptian proliferation.
Thies 7 – Major USAF, Douglas, INFLUENCE THROUGH AIRPOWER SECURITY  COOPERATION IN EGYPT AND PAKISTAN:    LESSONS FOR IRAQ, Naval Postgraduate School Thesis, Dec
On the surface,… of Egypt’s nuclear 

That causes fast prolif in the middle east.
Sokolski 11 [Henry Sokolski – He is the executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and editor of Nuclear Power’s Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks. “Egyptian revolution and nuclear proliferation…” JSS News. Feb 9, 2011. http://jssnews.com/2011/02/09/egyptian-revolution-and-nuclear-proliferation/]  
Even more dangerously…likely to collapse.

Prolif risks war – Egyptian –Algerian tensions are high.
Tetrais 10 - Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, France, AFTER IRAN: PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN NORTH AFRICA, Paper prepared for the Non‐Proliferation Education Center (NPEC), 8-30, http://128.177.28.81/files/After_Iran_Prospects_For_Nuclear_Proliferation_in_North_Africa_0.pdf
From a technical standpoint…inferiority complex” over Egypt.  

Goes nuclear.
Blank 9 (Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, “Prospects for Russo-American Cooperation in Halting Nuclear Proliferation,” March, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=892) Bankey
Thus one of the… of regional rivalries. 

Robust military presence is key to reassure allies and solve proliferation.
McInnis 5
[Kathleen J. McInnis is coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS. “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East” The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 Summer 2005]
Taking into consideration… as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. 

Scenario II – Hegemony
Egyptian military co-operation key to hegemony, regional stability and containing Iran.
Wood 11 – Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, David, AT RISK IN EGYPT'S TURMOIL: U.S. MILITARY ACCESS TO THE MIDDLE EAST, Center for a New American Security, 2-5, http://www.cnas.org/node/5654
February 5, 2011 — Three hundred combat-armed… as a cautionary tale.''

Collapses global power projection.
Copley 11 [Chairman of the International Strategic Studies Association’s Balkan & Eastern Mediterranean Policy Council, Editor of Global Information System Defense and Foreign Affairs, and Author of several books about Egypt, Gregory, Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis, Defense and Foreign Affairs Report, 1-30,http://www.dfaonline.net/Open%20Zone/Egypt%20Jan%2030%202011.htm]
U.S. interests: A stable… a charismatic leader. 

Iran aggression goes nuclear.
Ben-Meir 7 - Professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses in international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies, Alon, “Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance”, UPI, 2/6, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/
NEW YORK, Feb. 6 (UPI)  That Iran… its nuclear program. 

Lack of influence in Egypt destroys US credibility, collapses all alliances.
Etzioni 11 – Prof PoliSci @ George Washington U, Amatai, The Coming Test of US Credibility, Military Review, April, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As of the beginning… its commitments overseas. MR

Hegemony solves nuclear war—no alternative.
Kagan 7 – Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Robert “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html
National ambition drives… an easier path.

Contention III is solvency

Assistance for public consultation maintains US-Egypt relations and prevents radical Islamist takeover.
Kull 11 – Faculty member of the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland, and WorldPublicOpinion.org, an international research project involving public opinion research centers in 25 nations around the world, Steven, On Egypt: What Should America Do Now?, Harvard International Review, 3-9, http://hir.harvard.edu/on-egypt-what-should-america-do-now?page=0,0
A key driver… the Egyptian people.

Polling is critical to liberal victories
Jandura 6/24 [David Jandura. researcher at an international democracy assistance organization based in Washington, D.C. “The Implications of Egypt’s Proposed Electoral System (Long)” Ahwa Talk. June 24, 2011. http://ahwatalk.com/2011/06/24/the-implications-of-egypt%E2%80%99s-proposed-electoral-system-long/]
Because electors cast… non-Islamist party.

Solves alt causes – democracy assistance reframes the entire relationship.
Hamid 11 [Shadi Hamid director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “How Obama Got Egypt Wrong” Foreign Policy. Jan 28, 2011. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/28/pharaohs_end?page=full]
America was rightly… governments and organizations.

No alt causes – we have a window to improve relations.
Kull 9-9-11 - Steven Kull is director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes and author of the recently released book, Feeling Betrayed: The Roots of Muslim Anger at America, Why Muslims are still mad at America, World Public Opinion, 9-9, http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/691.php
As America begins… of being coerced.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer support to media, non-governmental organizations, universities, and government institutions in Egypt to strengthen their capacity to conduct citizen assemblies, citizen advisory panels, and public opinion polls on public policy issues in which the results are made publicly available. 

*AT: BACKLASH*

Current aid is causing the backlash
AP 11
[“As US-Egypt strains over funding grow, USAID boss quits the country” AP. 8/11/11 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/as-us-egypt-strains-over-funding-grow-usaid-boss-quits-the-country/2011/08/11/gIQA7E9G9I_story.html]
The USAID director ...from authoritarian rule.

This is because it goes to political groups
Allam 8/18
[Hannah Allam. “New U.S. ambassador faces cooler relations in Egypt” McClatchy Newspapers. The Sacramento Bee. August 18, 2011. http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/17/3844814/egypt-gives-new-us-ambassador.html]
The United States ...Middle East and North Africa. 

Promotion of democratic processes doesn’t link
Lust 11 – Prof PoliSci @ Yale, Ellen, “Enhancing Egypt’s democratic prospects: support the process, not the players”, Democracy Digest, 2-2, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/02/enhancing-egypt%E2%80%99s-democratic-prospects-support-the-process-not-the-players/
Interesting questions, but...allies to catch up.

Military backlash isn’t sustainable
The National 11 - Egyptian activists and army at odds over US aid, 8-17, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/egyptian-activists-and-army-at-odds-over-us-aid
Many, however, believed... a secret organisation.

Don’t evaluate any of their evidence – no one has done public opinion polls so it’s impossible to know that the plan would cause a backlash among the populace.
Bialik 11
[Carl Bialik. “The Middle East’s Pulse-Takers” The Wall Street Journal. Feb 26, 2011. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/the-middle-easts-pulse-takers-1041/]
Pechter said that ...rough, ballpark estimates.)

Link outweighs – public support is key to sustainable relations.
Singh 11 [Michael Singh. “Democracy is not all that different...” Foreign Policy. Jan 28, 2011.http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/28/democracy_is_not_all_that_different]
That the Obama administration...will eventually backfire.

*AT: ISRAEL RELATIONS*
Relations incredibly low
Rubin 7/11
[Jennifer Rubin. “It’s a fact: U.S.-Israel relations at low ebb” Right Turn. The Washington Post. July 11, 2011. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/its-a-fact-us-israel-relations-at-low-ebb/2011/03/29/gIQAtHov8H_blog.html]
There were perhaps worse moments ...   other in recent memory.”)

No risk of total relations collapse – issues won’t spill over to destroy the relationship
Jones 10
[Gen. (Ret.) James L. Jones, USMC, President Obama's national security advisor, delivered the Michael Stein Address  on U.S. Middle East Policy at The Washington Institute's 2010 Soref Symposium on April 21, 2010. The event honored the Institute's 25th anniversary. " Michael Stein Address on U.S. Middle East Policy” The Washington Institute. April 21, 2010. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=525]
And since there has been..., Israel must be secure., Israel must be secure.

*AT: ME WAR GOOD - RUSSIAN ECONOMY*

No impact to Russian economy.
World Policy Journal 3 – “Russia and America: How Close an Embrace?”, 1/22, http://www.worldpolicy.newschool.edu/journal/articles/wpj03-4/stent.html
Using extensive interviews... Russia's democratic development.

Russian economic collapse is inevitable – 10 reasons.
Moscow Times 9-3-2008 – “10 Reasons Why the Economy Will Falter”, http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/370643.htm

1. Internationally, one of the...expensive prime minister?

*AT: SKFTA*

Won’t pass -
A. Opposition parties are blocking ratification.
Yonhap News, 9-16-2011 (Heated KORUS FTA exchange, p. english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_entertainment/496618.html)
Nam Kyung-pil, lawmaker ...committee chairman’s seat.

B. TAA
Chicago Tribune, 9-17-2011 (www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-trade-20110917,0,7724148.story)
Free-trade agreements...of the unemployed.

C. Democrats
Chris Good, associate editor @ The Atlantic, 9-17-2011 (Republicans Support Obama's Trade Agenda. Do Democrats?, The Atlantic, p. www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/republicans-support-obamas-trade-agenda-do-democrats/245248/
Flash forward to 2011...among his Democratic allies.

Obama has no political capital.
Patrick J. Kiely, staff writer @ Journal Gazette, 9-5-2011 (Labor Day: The State of the Union, Journal Gazette, p. http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20110905/EDIT05/309059996/1021/EDIT)
The Rasmussen Reports ...to near junk status.

Jobs thumps the link
The Economic Times, 9-13-2011 (Obama wants tax breaks ended to pay for $447 billion jobs plan, p. articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-13/news/30149327_1_jobs-plan-support-job-growth-proposal-both-parties)
President Barack Obama ...U.S. credit downgrade.

Fights over democracy assistance now
Karmi 8/2
[Omar Karmi. “US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem” The National. August 2, 2011. http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem?pageCount=0]
With the same acrimony...how they view the Arab Spring.

Massive support for the plan
Richter et al 11
[Paul Richter. David Cloud, Kathleen Hennessey. “UNREST IN EGYPT;  U.S. lawmakers now back aid;  Consensus grows that a cutback could diminish Washington's leverage with Egypt's powerful military.” LA Times. Feb 9, 2011. Lexis]
Influential U.S. lawmakers ...mostly in military assistance.

Winners win
Green 10
[David Michael Green. professor of political science at Hofstra University in New York. “The Do-Nothing 44th President” OpEdNews.June 11, 2010. http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html]
Moreover, there is a ...what they did.

Politics disads are false
Larsen Price and Rutledge ’10, Assistant professors of political science at University of Memphis and West Georgia (Heather and Paul, “Public Priorities, News Stories, and Institutional Agendas: The Interplay between Public Concerns and Presidential, Congressional, and Media Policy Agendas”, January, Southern Political Science Association, Ebsco)
In this paper, we ...relations with Congress.

Trade is resilient
Ikenson, 2009 – Associate Director of Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute
Daniel, A Short-Lived Affair with the Protectionist Temptress, Real Clear Politics, March 10, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/03/a_shortlived_affair_with_the_p.html
Despite the apparent ...competition less applicable.

Relations are key to the straits of Hormuz
McMillan 3 –
Joseph McMillan is a distinguished research fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He formerly served in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy as country director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, country director for the former Soviet Union, principal director of the Office of Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs, and principal director of the Office of Near East and South Asian Affairs, US Interests and Objectives, The United States and the Persian Gulk,
Tankers are not ...can be taken lightly.

Key to trade
Brito and Jaffe 5
[DAGOBERT BRITO is the Peterkin Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Economics and a Baker ScSchool of Public Policy at Rice University. Received his BA, MA, and Ph.D. in Economics from Rice University. AMY MYERS JAFFE is the Wallace S. Wilson fellow for Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and associate director of the Rice University energy program. Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Reducing Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz” GETTING READY FOR A NUCLEAR-READY IRAN. October 2005.]
The Strait of Hormuz is ...Iran-  Iraq war in the 1980s.2

*AT: TURKEY CP*

US is key – technical experience
Schenker 11
[David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations” The Cutting Edge. July 25, 2011. http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=]
As with the revolution...country of 83 million people.

Turkey has an incentive to mess up – undercuts their regional hegemony
Santini and Alessandri 11
[Ruth Hanau Santini is a Visiting Fellow with  the Brookings Center on the United States   and Europe (CUSE). Her areas of expertise   are European foreign policy, international   security and Middle Eastern politics.   Emiliano Alessandri is Transatlantic Fellow   at the German Marshall Fund in D.C.   Previously, Dr. Alessandri was a Visiting   Fellow at CUSE. He works on the   Mediterranean, Turkish, and wider-Atlantic   security issues. “Iran and Turkey after Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?” Brookings Institute. 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0418_iran_turkey_alessandri_santini/0418_iran_turkey_alessandri_santini.pdf]
Under these circumstances...the Turkish   military.

CP can’t solve – Turkish model causes a backlash
Cook 8/1
[Steven A. Cook. “Istanbul on the Nile” Foreign Affairs. August 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68003/steven-a-cook/istanbul-on-the-nile?page=show]
For all of the political ...not even bother trying.

More ev – Muslim Brotherhood rejects the CP
Mayton 9/16
[Joseph Mayton. “Turkey’s Erdogan angers Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood” BikyaMasr. Sep 16, 2011. http://bikyamasr.com/42431/turkeys-erdogan-angers-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/]
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood ...reality to Egypt.

AT: TURKISH SOFTPOWER NB

Alt cause - Assad
Waldman ’11, lecturer in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies at King’s College London  (Simon, “Turkey and the Arab Spring: Strategic Depth becomes strategic abyss”, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-and-the-arab-spring-strategic-depth-becomes-strategic-abyss-2011-05-15)
Presently in Syria, where ...the Assad regime. 

Squo solves
RFERL 9/14
[“Turkey's Prime Minister Travels To Tunisia” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. Sep 14, 2011. http://www.rferl.org/content/turkey_erdogan_arab_tour/24327893.html]
Turkish Prime Minister ...Turkey's influence as a regional power.

Turkey can’t exercise any influence
Shadid ’11, Foreign correspondent for The New York Times based in Baghdad and Beirut and two time winner of the Pulitzer Prize  (Anthony, May 4, “Unrest Around the Arab World Endangers Turkey’s Newfound Influence”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/world/europe/05turkey.html)
Before the so-called ...support an act of betrayal.”

No risk of Pakistan impacts.
Innocent 9 – Foreign Policy Analyst at the Cato Institute. She is a member of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Malou, “Myth v. Fact: Afghanistan”, Cato, 9/4, http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/09/04/myth-v-fact-afghanistan/
The “Pakistan–is-imploding”...and encircling Pakistan.

Balkans conflict won’t escalate.
Bandow ’99 [Doug, Senior Fellow of the CATO Institute, Mar 10, “The U.S. Role in Kosovo,” http://www.cato.org/testimony/ct-db031099.html]
Most important, it would ...of setting priorities.  

*AT: SCHMITT*

democracy checks
O’Kane 97  (“Modernity, the Holocaust, and politics”, Economy and Society, February, ebsco)
Chosen policies cannot ...of modern genocides.

No root cause of war - studies
Sharp 8 – senior associate deputy general counsel for intelligence at the US Department of Defense, Dr. Walter, “Democracy and Deterrence”, Air Force University Press, May, http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/Books/sharp/Sharp.pdf
While classical liberals ...the cause of war.37

Structural changes in US politics solve preemption.
Shapiro et al 9 – Robert, professor of political science at Columbia University and acting director of Columbia’s Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Jack Snyder is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science and the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, Yaeli Bloch-Elkon is a lecturer/assistant professor of political science and communications at Bar Ilan University, Israel, and an associate research scholar at the university’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (besa) and at Columbia University’s Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, “Free Hand Abroad, Divide and Rule at Home”, World Politics, 61.1, Jan, MUSE
If our theoretical analyses ...democratic foreign policy. [End Page 187]

*AT: SPANOS*

Ontology is irrelevant
Owen 2 (university of Southampton, David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7)
Commenting on the ‘philosophical ...vicious circle arises.

Aff isn’t imperialist
Youngs 11 – Director of FRIDE and Asst Prof @ U of Warwick and Research Fellow @ Norwegian Institute for IR, Richard, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, FRIDE (European Think Tank), Working Paper, 2-18, http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/
Democracy promotion has ...their required improvement.

Middle East hegemony is based off exchange not coercion─
Peters and Yom 11 - Anne Mariel Peters Wesleyan University Sean L. Yom Temple University, US Hierarchy in the Middle East, APSA Meeting Paper, August, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1900426
It is not difficult ...for international hierarchy. 

These exchanges empirically increase prosperity.
Peters and Yom 11 - Anne Mariel Peters Wesleyan University Sean L. Yom Temple University, US Hierarchy in the Middle East, APSA Meeting Paper, August, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1900426
In the Middle East...its territorial jurisdiction

The plan is critical to open up spaces for local choices
Youngs 11 – Director of FRIDE and Asst Prof @ U of Warwick and Research Fellow @ Norwegian Institute for IR, Richard, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, FRIDE (European Think Tank), Working Paper, 2-18, http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/
The central thrust of ...descent into relativism?

Rethinking isn’t enough—lack of policy relevance dooms their alternative.
Carothers 99 – VP @ Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad, p.100-1
An overarching critique ...more enlight¬ened path."

No root cause of war - studies
Sharp 8 – senior associate deputy general counsel for intelligence at the US Department of Defense, Dr. Walter, “Democracy and Deterrence”, Air Force University Press, May, http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/Books/sharp/Sharp.pdf
While classical liberals ...the cause of war.37

Public consultation is distinct from liberal democracy – the plan is key to shift away from pure liberalism.
Hobson 9 - Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth University, Wales, Christopher, The Limits of Liberal-Democracy Promotion, Alternatives: Global, Local, Political 2009 34: 383
Exploring and debating different ...about contemporary democratization.

Polling is uniquely good –
A. Solves government manipulation
Beach 5/22
[Alastair Beach. “Opinion polling set to thrive in Egypt's new political climate” Al Masry Al Youm. 5/22/11 http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/447902]
“Political polling is ...might not be free,” he said.

B. Ensures governments are responsive to the people
Majumdar 4/5
[Shuvaloy Majumdar is a Visiting Scholar at the University of British Columbia with a focus on foreign policy and Middle East democratization. From UBC’s Liu Institute for Global Issues, he directs the Hurriya Initiative: Ending Tyranny through Freedom in 21st Century Statecraft and is a principal of Cloud to Street.   Shuvaloy led large-scale democracy initiatives in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2010 for the International Republican Institute (IRI).  “Democracy's Dawn in the Middle East” Canada’s Journal of Ideas. April 5, 2011. http://www.c2cjournal.ca/blog-articles/view/democracys-dawn-in-the-middle-east]
Today’s solutions result ...for the people.

*AT: BATAILLE

Existence outweighs value to life
Schwartz,Professor of Medicine, Dartmouth, 2002[Lisa, Medical Ethics, http://www.fleshandbones.com/readingroom/pdf/399.pdf]
This assertion suggests ...ends in themselves. 

You can't externally measure value to life of someone else.
Steven Schwartz, Vice-Chancellor of Brunel University, London, member of the Council of Academic Advisors of The Centre for Independent Studies, 2004.  A Value to Life:  Who Decides and How?  Medical Ethics, Ch. 6, p. 109,
Those who choose to ...ends in themselves.

Death outweighs.
Etzioni, 2009 (Amitai, Ph.D. in Sociology from Berkeley, professor of international affairs at The George Washington University, “The Obama Doctrine,” July 21, http://blog.amitaietzioni.org/2009/07/index.html)
Still, one should not overlook ...of promoting security first.

Util is key to prevent political biases – turns the K
Robert Goodin, prof of philosophy at the Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, ’95 (“Utilitarianism as a public Philosophy. p. 8-9)
The strength of ...not play favorites

*HORMUZ*
Relations are key to the straits of Hormuz
McMillan 3 –
Joseph McMillan is a distinguished research fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He formerly served in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy as country director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, country director for the former Soviet Union, principal director of the Office of Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs, and principal director of the Office of Near East and South Asian Affairs, US Interests and Objectives, The United States and the Persian Gulk,
Tankers are not ...can be taken lightly.

Key to trade
Brito and Jaffe 5
[DAGOBERT BRITO is the Peterkin Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Economics and a Baker ScSchool of Public Policy at Rice University. Received his BA, MA, and Ph.D. in Economics from Rice University. AMY MYERS JAFFE is the Wallace S. Wilson fellow for Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and associate director of the Rice University energy program. Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Reducing Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz” GETTING READY FOR A NUCLEAR-READY IRAN. October 2005.]
The Strait of Hormuz is ...Iran-  Iraq war in the 1980s.2

*SOMALIA*

US-Egypt relations are critical to stabilize Somalia
Taleb 9
[Hassan Abou Taleb vice president of the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “Bilateral and Regional Issues in U.S.–Egyptian Relations” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. June 2009. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2009/06/17/bilateral-and-regional-issues-in-u.s.-egyptian-relations/1rhq]
Finally, the situation...Cairo and Washington.

Nuclear war
Glick 7
[Caroline Glick. “Condi's African holiday” Jerusalem Post. Dec 11, 2007. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/]
The Horn of Africa...and global powers.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer support to media, non-governmental organizations, universities, and government institutions in Egypt to strengthen their capacity to conduct citizen assemblies, citizen advisory panels, and public opinion polls on public policy issues in which the results are made publicly available.

The plan is necessary to reconcile secular and islamist groups, enhance civic education, and provide people with a voice in their government.

Kull 11 – Faculty member of the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland, and WorldPublicOpinion.org, an international research project involving public opinion research centers in 25 nations around the world, Steven, On Egypt: What Should America Do Now?, Harvard International Review, 3-9, http://hir.harvard.edu/on-egypt-what-should-america-do-now?page=0,0

A key driver in America’s past AND the will of the Egyptian people.

In the context of Egypt, US democracy assistance is key. Cross-border networking has provided valuable skills to Egyptian activists

Hanley 11

[Charles J. Hanley. “US training quietly nurtured young Arab democrats” The Associated Press. RealClearPolitics. March 13, 2011. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2011/Mar/13/us_training_quietly_nurtured_young_arab_democrats.html]

The NDI, affiliated with the AND to advise counterparts there on policymaking.

US technical expertise is necessary to ensure credible reform occurs.

Schenker 11

[David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges--Policy Recommendations” The Cutting Edge. July 25, 2011. http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=]

As with the revolution, Egyptians AND a country of 83 million people.

Studies confirm this.

Finkel et al 8

[Steven E. Finkel, University of Pittsburgh and Hertie School of Governance (Berlin)   Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, University of Pittsburgh   Mitchell A. Seligson, Vanderbilt University   C. Neal Tate, Vanderbilt University. “Deepening Our Understanding of the Effects of US   Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building   Final Report” January 28, 2008. http://www.pitt.edu/~politics/democracy/FINAL_REPORT%20v18b.pdf]

What we find in this second AND impact   on democracy in recipient countries.

Contention I is Warming

Failure to reconcile secular and Islamist forces is causing instability

El-Hennawy 6/2

[Noha El-Henawwy. “Islamist-secular rift threatens Egypt's emerging democracy” Al Masry Al Youm. June 2, 2011. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/461596]

Friday’s protests represented a possible climax AND for not interfering in military affairs.

Instability collapses renewable energy cooperation which alleviate poverty and solve warming

Yee 6/26

[April Yee. “Wake-up call for energy dream” The National. June 26, 2011. http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/energy/wake-up-call-for-energy-dream?pageCount=0]

Nobody could accuse Desertec, an AND of the scenario in the future."

Warming will create new breeding grounds for disease spread

Nicholas Stern—Head of the British Government Economic Service—2007 (Former Head Economist for the World Bank, I.G. Patel Chair at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, The report of a team commissioned by the British Government to study the economics of climate change led by Siobhan Peters, Head of G8 and International Climate Change Policy Unit, Cambridge University Press, p. 74-76)

Climate change will increase worldwide deaths AND so-called “Katrina cough”.

Additionally, warming will cause massive famines

British Council, April 18 2008

(ChallengeEurope, a three year campaign that aspires to make a definite and lasting impact on the climate change debate, “Effects of Global Warming – Ecosystem”, http://challengeeurope.britishcouncil.org/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=18)

The earth's ecosystem is an incredibly AND to feed an ever growing population.

Positive feedbacks will make the Earth unlivable

Hansen ‘9, heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University (James, December, Storms of My Grandchildren, 236)

The paleoclimate record does not provide AND Venus syndrome is a dead certainty.

Education about federal policies is key to check special interests from causing warming, and it’s low now

Hansen ‘9, heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University (James, December, Storms of My Grandchildren, xi)

I believe the biggest obstacle to AND we are running out of time.

Put our predictions on a different level – they are based in fact and not politics.  Attempts to relegate science as mere opinion empower climate skeptics and cause warming.

Banning ‘9, Professor of Communication at the University of Colorado (Elisabeth, “When Poststructural Theory and Contemporary Politics Collide-The Vexed Case of Global Warming”, September)

While academic research practices and the AND deliberately obfuscate and mislead US publics.

Even if there is no objective truth, rationality can provide justified belief, and we should still act as if there were.

Sherry 96 – Suzanna, “The Sleep of Reason”, Georgetown Law Journal, Feb, lexis

In order to make even such AND only to give that epistemology content.

Contention II is Civic society

The plan’s civil society measures spillover and spread around the world

Dunne 10

[Michele Dunne was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and editor of the online journal, the Arab Reform Bulletin. A former specialist on Middle East affairs at the U.S. Department of State and White House, she served in assignments including the National Security Council staff, the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, the U.S. Consulate General in Jerusalem, and the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. . “U.S.–Egyptian Relations on the Eve of Egypt’s Elections” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Oct 12, 2010. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2010/10/12/u.s.-egyptian-relations-on-eve-of-egypt-s-elections/2yd#important]

Egypt has also played an important AND people continue to be quite influential.

Promoting engagement and civic education is necessary to increase political tolerance

Finkel 3

[Steven E. Finkel. professor of politics at the University of Virginia. “Can Democracy be Taught?” Journal of Democracy. 14.4. 2003. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v014/14.4finkel.html]

In contrast to this relatively static AND the sake of the group's agenda.

Engagement is necessary to counteract corporate, militaristic, and authoritarian forces. Failing to engage in these political processes gives them complete control which results in extinction.

Boggs 1997(Carl, Professor of Political Sience – National University, Theory & Society 26, December, p. 773-4)

The decline of the public spherein AND had vanished from civil society.75

And, the cultivation of political agency is necessary to counter totalitarianism.

Giroux 6

[Henry A. Giroux currently holds the Global TV Network Chair Professorship at McMaster University in the English and Cultural Studies Department. “Reading Hurricane Katrina: Race, Class, and the Biopolitics of Disposability” College Literature 33.3 (2006). Project Muse]

The promise of a better world AND indifferent in the face of death.

Making the government accountable and responsive to the demands of protesters is necessary to ensure those demands are met

Themba-Nixon, 2K(Makani, Executive Director of The Praxis Project, a policy advocacy nonprofit, COLORNESS: RACE, ACTION, CULTURE, July 31, v3, n2, ProQuest) 

"This is all about policyAND be committed to making it so.

This is the best method for ensuring demands are met – the State is the most structurally capable actor

Krause & Williams, 97Prof. Political Sci. at Geneva Graduate Institute ofInt' I Studies and Asst. Prof. Political Sci. at University of South em Main [Keith and Michael, Critical Security Studies. Pg, XV-XVI]

These (and other) critical AND capable actor in contemporary world politics.

This is especially true in the context of Egypt

International Crisis Group 11

[“POPULAR PROTEST INNORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (I):EGYPT VICTORIOUS?” International Crisis Group. February 24, 2011. http://www.cfr.org/egypt/international-crisis-group-egypt-victorious/p24627]

At this moment of ferment, AND , which will be more challenging.

Institutional change makes individual change sustainable.

Lester W. Milbrath, Professor Emeritus of Political Science and Sociology at SUNY-Buffalo, 1996, In Building Sustainable Societies, ed. Pirages, p. 289

In some respects personal change cannot AND to challenge mainstream society is the major

reason most efforts emphasizing education to AND is not likely to be effective.

Need political action to start environmental movements – without uniting utopian goals with analysis, nothing will happen

Robyn Eckersley 1992 (University of Tasmania Centre for Environmental Studies Australian Research Council Fellow, Environmentalism and Political Theory: Toward an Ecocentric Approach, p. 186)

One way in which emancipatory writers AND achieve its long-term aims.

Need policy recommendations and action before environmental philosophy can change things ***already read***

Eugene Hargrove, prof at UNT in environmental ethics, Ethics & the Environment; Fall2007, Vol. 12 Issue 2, p130-131, 2p

A work-around approach might AND scientists is still on the horizon.

Making environmentalism an individual issue destroys activism

Taylor, 1991

Bob Pepperman, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont. “Environmental Ethics & Political Theory”, Polity, Vol. 23, No. 4, (Summer, 1991), pp. 567-583

It is interesting to note that AND analysis, and ac- tivism.

MuRethinking isn’t enough—lack of policy relevance dooms their alternative.

Carothers 99 – VP @ Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad, p.100-1

An overarching critique of the model AND to adopting a more enlight­ened path."

plan is key to shift away from pure liberalism.

Hobson 9 - Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth University, Wales, Christopher, The Limits of Liberal-Democracy Promotion, Alternatives: Global, Local, Political 2009 34: 383

Exploring and debating different conceptions of AND assist in thinking about contemporary democratization.

Solves government manipulation

Beach 5/22

[Alastair Beach. “Opinion polling set to thrive in Egypt's new political climate” Al Masry Al Youm. 5/22/11 http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/447902]

“Political polling is very important AND not be free,” he said.

Ensures governments are responsive to the people

Majumdar 4/5

[Shuvaloy Majumdar is a Visiting Scholar at the University of British Columbia with a focus on foreign policy and Middle East democratization. From UBC’s Liu Institute for Global Issues, he directs the Hurriya Initiative: Ending Tyranny through Freedom in 21st Century Statecraft and is a principal of Cloud to Street.   Shuvaloy led large-scale democracy initiatives in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2010 for the International Republican Institute (IRI).  “Democracy's Dawn in the Middle East” Canada’s Journal of Ideas. April 5, 2011. http://www.c2cjournal.ca/blog-articles/view/democracys-dawn-in-the-middle-east]

Today’s solutions result from almost three AND that are priorities for the people.

Past atrocities do not justify inaction─

Roth, ‘9 [Kenneth Roth, exec. Director of human rights watch, Human Rights Watch World Report 2009, Introduction by Kenneth Roth, http://www.hrw.org/en/world-report-2009/taking-back-initiative-human-rights-spoilers]

The governments seeking to subvert human AND block that help for these victims.

Plan isn’t paternalistic but their alternative is.

Youngs 11 – Director of FRIDE and Asst Prof @ U of Warwick and Research Fellow @ Norwegian Institute for IR, Richard, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, FRIDE (European Think Tank), Working Paper, 2-18, http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/

In practice, what many critics AND the West’s defence of core liberalism.

Aff isn’t imperialist

Youngs 11 – Director of FRIDE and Asst Prof @ U of Warwick and Research Fellow @ Norwegian Institute for IR, Richard, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, FRIDE (European Think Tank), Working Paper, 2-18, http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/

Democracy promotion has lost traction around AND opposite direction to their required improvement.

The plan does not foreclose the possibility of alternative forms of engagement

Youngs 11 – Director of FRIDE and Asst Prof @ U of Warwick and Research Fellow @ Norwegian Institute for IR, Richard, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, FRIDE (European Think Tank), Working Paper, 2-18, http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/

A sixth point: the associated AND monitoring bodies overseeing municipal level budgets.

Turns the K – causes foreign intervention and fighting over resources

McKibben, 2009 (Bill, scholar in residence at Middlebury College, “Think Again: Climate Change,” Foreign Policy, January 1, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/01/05/think_again_climate_change)

"Climate Change Will Help as AND doesn’t seem like an even trade.

Institutional checks prevent the worst exercises of power

Ellermann 9

[Antje Ellermann. University of British Columbia. “Undocumented Migrants and Resistance in the State of Exception” Western Political Science Association 2009. 14-15]

While the treatment of “enemy AND its full arsenal of coercive powers.

Perm – use the plan as a way of actualizing Africana Womanism. The plan establishes citizen assemblies and advisory groups. That’s not the type of democracy assistance their links describe. Even if it is, the function of the plan allows Egyptians to do the alt.

Youngs 11 – Director of FRIDE and Asst Prof @ U of Warwick and Research Fellow @ Norwegian Institute for IR, Richard, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, FRIDE (European Think Tank), Working Paper, 2-18, http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/

The central thrust of Locke’s liberalism AND of values without descent into relativism?

Integrating norms into states is key – alternative is nuclear war

Shaw ‘01

(Martin, Prof of IR and Politics @ U of Sussex "The Unfinished Global Revolution: Intellectuals and the New Politics of International Relations" 10/3, http://www.martinshaw.org/unfinished.pdf)

From these political fundamentals, strategic AND relations and politics, are intertwined.

1arr

`Role-playing prepares us for effective activism, their approach is ineffective.

Coverstone 5 – masters in communication from Wake Forest and longtime debate coach

(Alan H., “Acting on Activism: Realizing the Vision of Debate with Pro-social Impact,” Paper presented at the National Communication Association Annual Conference, 11/17/05

However, contest debate teaches students AND and participatory abstention in America today.

Switch-side debate empirically encouraged progressive reforms that check neo-conservatism. 

Mitchell, et al. 7 – Associate Professor of Communication and Director of the William Pitt Debating Union at the University of Pittsburgh, Gordon R., Eric English, Stephen Llano, Gordon R. Mitchell, Catherine E. Morrison, John Rief & Carly Woods, “Debate as a Weapon of Mass Destruction” June 2007, Communication and Critical/Cultural Studies, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 221 – 225, http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/EnglishDAWG.pdf

It is our position, howeverAND ‘‘weapon of mass destruction.’’     

Relations are key to US naval presence in the Indian Ocean

McMillan 3 –

Joseph McMillan is a distinguished research fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He formerly served in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy as country director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, country director for the former Soviet Union, principal director of the Office of Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs, and principal director of the Office of Near East and South Asian Affairs, US Interests and Objectives, The United States and the Persian Gulk,

Tankers are not...not one that can be taken lightly.

itself continually useful.”

Naval competition sparks conflict

UPI 9

[“China's navy mulls push into Arabian Sea” United Press International. Dec 30, 2009. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2009/12/30/Chinas-navy-mulls-push-into-Arabian-Sea/UPI-24731262213319/]

A Chinese admiral's...monitor Chinese movements.

It’s reverse causal – decline of military presence sparks conflict

Kaplan 10

[Robert Kaplan. senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security “Power Plays in the Indian Ocean: The Maritime Commons of the 21^st Century” Contested Commons: The Future of American Power in a Multipolar World January 2010. ]

Without a strong ...keeping the peace.

Nuclear war

Newsweek 9 – “Why India Fears China”, 10-10, http://www.newsweek.com/2009/10/09/why-india-fears-china.html

The implications for India's security ... the two sides. 

US naval presence builds coalitions - critical to solve piracy

Kaplan 10

[Robert Kaplan. senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security “Power Plays in the Indian Ocean: The Maritime Commons of the 21^st Century” Contested Commons: The Future of American Power in a Multipolar World January 2010. ]

A Cooperative Strategy ...will quickly follow another.

Malaccan piracy collapses international trade

Pena 9

[Joyce Pena. “Maritime Crime in the Strait of Malacca:  Balancing Regional and Extra-Regional   Concerns” Stanford Journal of International Relations. Spring 2009.]

Much of the world’s ...over   this critical region. 

Multiple scenarios for great power war

Copeland 96 –PhD, Prof PoliSci @ U Virginia, Dale, "Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations," International Security, Vol. 20, no.4, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/copeland.htm

This article offers ... tragedy of war                 

Contention I – Terrorism

Terrorists have the means and motivation to go nuclear.

Joyner 9 – Prof Govt @ Georgetown, Christopher, “Nuclear terrorism in a globalizing world: assessing the threat and the emerging management regime”, Stanford Journal of International Law, 6-22, http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-216486733.html

The technologies and… with such acts.

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction.

Rhodes 9 – Richard, affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Former visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, and author of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” which won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, National Book Award, and National Book Critics Circle Award. “Reducing the nuclear threat: The argument for public safety” 12-14, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/reducing-the-nuclear-threat-the-argument-public-safety

The response was… sending a message.

Bioterrorism causes extinction—defense is wrong.

Posner 5 – Prof Law and Econ @ U Chicago, Richard, Catastrophe, Skeptic, 11.3, Jan

Bioterrorism is a… infectious incubation period.(FN133)

Agro-terrorism destroys genetic diversity

JP Dudley, Institute of Arctic Biology � U Alaska Fairbanks, and M.H. Wolford, Not Kurt, Chair � Office International des Epizooties Working Group on Wildlife Diseases, Portugal, Bioweapons, Bioterrorism, and Biodiversity, 2002, http://www.oie.int/e...P.%20DUDLEY.pdf

Military and terrorist… accidental bioweapon releases.

Genetic diversity prevents extinction

Cary Fowler and Pat Mooney, Rural Advancement Fund International, Shattering: Food, Politics, and the Loss of Genetic Diversity, 1990, p. ix

While many may… Latin America and Asia.

Cyber terrorism heightens risk of accidental launches

Blair, 03 (Bruce, World Security Institute President, Former ICBM Launch Control Officer, Brookings Fellow, PhD, “Hair-Trigger Missiles Risk Catastrophic Terrorism”, Center for Defense Information, 4/29, http://www.cdi.org/blair/hair-trigger-dangers.cfm)

Another specter concerns… heightens the risks.

Terrorist attacks on nuclear plants destroy the nuclear industry.

UCS 7 – Union of Concerned Scientists, Nuclear Power in a Warming World (2007), http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_and_global_warming/nuclearandclimate.html

Current security standards… stolen reactor materials.

Nuclear power solves extinction from warming.

James Lovelock, PhD Medicine – London School of Hygiene – Fellow of the Royal Society, Director of the Marine Biological Society, THE INDEPENDENT, May 24, 2004, p. http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article61727.ece

Sir David King, the… our outraged planet.

Contention 2 – Economy

Poverty causes Egyptian diversionary war against Israel.

Gordon 11 – reporter for Jerusalem post and haaretz, Evelyn, Egypt’s Renegotiation Threat, Commentary Magazine, 3-3, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/03/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-renegotiation-threat/

Still, would a democratic…as the only solution.

Nuke war

Eberhart 1 – Quoting Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour M. Hersh, David, Samson Option: Israel's Plan to Prevent Mass Destruction Attacks, Newsmax, 10-16, http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/10/15/112430.shtml

"Should war break… possibility." Pulitzer Prize-winning author ("My Lai 4") Seymour M. Hersh made this hypothesis in his 1991 best seller "The Samson Option."

This is the only scenario for war.

Al Rashed 11 – Abdul Rahman Al Rashed, a prolific columnist, is General Manager of Al Arabiya, Egypt, Israel and the prospects of war, Al Arabiya News, 5-19, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/19/149715.html

There are no prospects… of the supreme interests.

Diversionary theory is true.

McLaughlin and Tyne 10 – Sara McLaughlin Mitchell University of Iowa Department of Political Science,  Clayton L. Thyne University of Kentucky Department of Political Science, Contentious Issues as Opportunities for Diversionary Behavior, Forthcoming in Conflict Management and Peace Science, http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/mitchell_thyne_CMPS2010.pdf

We have a similar expectation… ends in stalemate (Leng 1983).

Economic hardship causes strikes that close the Suez.

McClatchy 7-7-11 - Unhappy workers threaten to shut down Egypt's Suez Canal, ln

SUEZ, Egypt — Last Saturday, someone… shut down operations.

Even a threat of closure triggers the impact.

Copley 11 –Chairman of the International Strategic Studies Association’s Balkan & Eastern Mediterranean Policy Council, Editor of Global Information System Defense and Foreign Affairs, and Author of several books about Egypt, Gregory, Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis, Defense and Foreign Affairs Report, 1-30, http://www.dfaonline.net/Open%20Zone/Egypt%20Jan%2030%202011.htm

• Security and stability…Cape of Good Hope seaway.

Suez closure collapses the global economy—resiliency doesn’t check in the short term.

Klein 11 – NYT Columnist, Ezra, Egypt and the Economy, NYT, 1-31

But there's a general point worth… momentum in many countries."

Economic collapse destabilizes the entire international system, causes multiple scenarios for nuclear war.

Burrows and Harris 9-  Mathew J. Burrows is a counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Jennifer Harris is a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, The Washington Quarterly, April, http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf

Increased Potential for… world turn negative.

Contention Three: Solvency

No muslim brotherhood takeover.

Fisher 11 – Associate Editor @ The Atlantic, Matt, Chart of the Day: Muslim Brotherhood Is Deeply Unpopular in Egypt, The Atlantic, 7-26, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/chart-of-the-day-muslim-brotherhood-is-deeply-unpopular-in-egypt/242539/

But does the… is on Fox News.

Party aid destroys moderate groups

Lust 11 – Prof PoliSci @ Yale, Ellen, “Enhancing Egypt’s democratic prospects: support the process, not the players”, Democracy Digest, 2-2, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/02/enhancing-egypt%E2%80%99s-democratic-prospects-support-the-process-not-the-players/

Interesting questions, but… be off the table.

US interference unifies the muslim brotherhood – key to their winning.

Right Web 11 - Fearmongering the Muslim Brotherhood, Militarist Monitor, 6-22, http://rightweb.irc-online.org/militarist_monitor/display/fearmongering_the_muslim_brotherhood

By advocating active… more mundane interferences.

Party aid to Egypt causes backlash and boosts islamist parties.

Kull 11 – Faculty member of the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland, and WorldPublicOpinion.org, an international research project involving public opinion research centers in 25 nations around the world, Steven, On Egypt: What Should America Do Now?, Harvard International Review, 3-9, http://hir.harvard.edu/on-egypt-what-should-america-do-now?page=0,0

The US government…Islam is stronger.

Muslim brotherhood takeover solves terrorism.

Riedel 11 - Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Al Qaeda's Odd Silence on Egypt, The Daily Beast, 2-7, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0207_egypt_alqaeda_riedel.aspx

Worse, their hated enemy… his homelands future.

Muslim brotherhood takeover prevents Egypt from becoming a hotspot for terrorism.

Byman 11 - Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy How Egypt Looks From Osama Bin Laden's Cave , Slate, 2-4, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_byman.aspx

Demonstrations in… better their lives.

Muslim brotherhood is key to poverty reduction. That prevents instability.

NYT 11 – DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and DINA SALAH AMER, Egypt's Economy Slows to a Crawl; Revolt Is Tested, NYT, 6-10, http://mobile.nytimes.com/article?a=801625&f=110&p=0

In a region where… problem we have."

The muslim brotherhood’s Islamic finance policies are key to Egypts economic recovery.

Hope 11 – Reporter for the National, Bradley, Egypt urged to manage finances by Sharia rules, The National, 7-4, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/finance/egypt-urged-to-manage-finances-by-sharia-rules

Egypt will encourage… are Sharia-compliant," he said.

Their reforms resolve social tensions

Darwish Et al 11 - Darwish, Adel; British journalist, author, historian, broadcaster and political commentator, specialising on Middle Eastern politics since the 1970s, Golia, Maria; writer who has lived in Cairo for over twenty years, Blanche, Ed; Writer for the Daily Star (Lebanon), Lancaster, Pat; Reporter for the middle east magazine, Smith, Pamela Ann; American writer and journalist based in London who has been covering the middle east since 1968, Nashashibi, Sharif Hikm, co-founder and chairman of the British based organization, Arab Media Watch, Egypt: is the party over?, The Middle East, 3-1, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Egypt%3A+is+the+party+over%3F-a0252289558

Policies and plans  … and employment opportunities.

Plan: The United States federal government should provide political party assistance to Egyptian political parties not affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

US democracy assistance will crush liberal groups

Strasser 7-22-11 – Staff Writer, Matt, Can USAID Be a Force for Good in Egypt?, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt

Suspicion of foreign… who oppose continuing protests.)

Islamist groups will use assistance to smear liberals

Strasser 7-22-11 – Staff Writer, Matt, Can USAID Be a Force for Good in Egypt?, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt

Washington’s participation… recourse for Egypt.

2ac-QPQ

C/I – democracy assistance is not conditioned: they have confused it with demo promo

Carothers 99 (Thomas, Vice President for Studies – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, p. 6)

When policy makers decide

 countries may sometimes view it as such).

Assad DA

Regime collapse is inevitable -- militarys overstretched, demonstrations growing, business class getting on board.

Olmert, 10-21-11 [Dr. Josef, Adjunct Professor, American University’s School of International Service, “Now Libya, But What About Syria?”http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/syria-revolution-assad-_b_1025060.html]

The Libya effect is causing ripples AND is likely to stay and intensify.

Regime collapse inevitable -- loss of support, and protest strength.

AFP, 10-3-11 [“Fall of Syrian regime a ‘matter of time’: US,” http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=12343]

It is “a matter of AND between army deserters and Syrian forces.

No syria-israel war

ICG 7 – International Crisis Group, RESTARTING ISRAELI-SYRIAN NEGOTIATIONS,  Middle East Report N°63 – 10 April 2007

Strikingly, in recent Crisis Group AND Syrian invitation to regroup there.147

Israel-Syria war won’t happen

Zisser 8-9-11. Professor Eyal Zisser is the Dean of the Faculty of Humanities, and former Head of the Department of Middle Eastern and African History and of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, both at Tel Aviv University. He is a leading expert on Syria and has written extensively on the history and modern politics of Syria, Lebanon, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Vol. 11, No. 12    9 August 2011 Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

[http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=8154&TTL=The_Syrian_Uprising:_Implications_for_Israel]

A New Syrian Regime Might Be AND for Israel than this current regime.

2. They prefer the benefits of breaking down the axis

Seale 4-11-11. Patrick Seale is the author of Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.  “If Assad falls, we will see all the region's alliances unravel.”<http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/patrick-seale>

If the Syrian regime of President AND threatening to its interests and security.

Turn-Regime collapse would solve peace negotiations squo won’t.

Segal 5-14-11. Arik Segal. Studied international politics and diplomacy studies at Tel Aviv University. political analyst, blogger, and conflict management professional. Middle East Post. “Syria after Assad – how should Israel ensure its security?” [http://www.middleastpost.com/2928/syria-assad-israel-ensure-security/] //MG

Israel has made it a priority AND Syrian revolt: poor economic conditions.

2AC – Payroll

No impact to the economy

Barnet, 2009 (Thomas P.M., senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing , “the new rules: security remains stable amid financial crisis,” APN, August 25, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial crisis struck AND and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq.)

Can’t solve the econ

ABC 9-8-11 - Payroll Tax Breaks: Will Obama’s Plan Create Jobs?, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/payroll-tax-breaks-will-obamas-plan-create-jobs/

But with Obama’s re-election AND payroll holiday is the wrong way.”

Won’t pass

Benen 12-31-11 - Steve Benen is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly, joining the publication in August, 2008 as chief blogger for the Washington Monthly blog, Political Animal., Enjoy the Payroll Tax Break While it Lasts, Political Animal

Last week, after a needlesslyAND easier to spread the blame around.

Muslim Brotherhood engagement thumps the link

Karon, 1-5 (Tony, staff writer @ Time, As U.S. Explores Dialogue with Muslim Brotherhood, Israelis Urge a Tougher Line Against Islamists' Rise, Time, p. http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2012/01/05/as-u-s-explores-dialogue-with-muslim-brotherhood-israelis-urge-a-tougher-line-against-islamists-rise/)

Unlike its predecessor, the Obama AND consensus Obama can only dream of.

Political Capital is squandered – new immigration law infuriates Congress

LA Times 1-6 (“Obama's immigration move may have political benefit on 2 fronts”, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-immigration-20120107,0,5923586.story)

President Obama moved to repair relations AND immigrants without a vote of Congress."

Influential groups support the plan

Melia 5

[Thomas O. Melia   Institute for the Study of Diplomacy   Walsh School of Foreign Service   Georgetown University. “The Democracy Bureaucracy   The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion” Princeton Project on National Security   Working Group on Global Institutions and Foreign Policy Infrastructure. September 2005.]

Whether the U.S. AND to remain engaged in the   effort.

Winners win

Green 10

[David Michael Green. professor of political science at Hofstra University in New York. “The Do-Nothing 44th President” OpEdNews.June 11, 2010. http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html]

Moreover, there is a continuously AND this is precisely what they did.

Politics disads are false

Larsen Price and Rutledge ’10, Assistant professors of political science at University of Memphis and West Georgia (Heather and Paul, “Public Priorities, News Stories, and Institutional Agendas: The Interplay between Public Concerns and Presidential, Congressional, and Media Policy Agendas”, January, Southern Political Science Association, Ebsco)

In this paper, we have AND president in his relations with Congress.

2AC – Credibility

Banning intervention - Collapses credibility

Schenker 10/25

[David Schenker is Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.   “A Fighting Chance: Why Obama’s Support For Syria’s Non-Violent Protests Isn’t Enough” The New Republic. 10/25/11. http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/96607/syria-bashar-al-assad-obama-ambassador-robert-ford]

To be sure, Libya is AND is doing to end the slaughter.

Aid won’t delegitimize movements, opposition is directed against Russia and Iran-The plan overcomes the kiss─

Weiss & Stuart ’11. Michael Weiss, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democratic geopolitics, and Hannah Stuart. The Henry Jackson Society. “The Syrian opposition: Political analysis with original testimony from key figures”. June 6, 2011 [http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/cms/harriercollectionitems/The+Syrian+opposition.pdf]

The Syrian opposition is the most AND be recognised by the international community.

Kiss of death is empirically denied

WSJ 12-6-11 - Clinton Meets With Syrian Opposition

Mrs. Clinton's meeting with MrAND the representatives of the Syrian people.

Western recognition increases legitimacy

Ross 12/21

[Dennis Ross, Counselor, Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Why Syria's Regime Is Doomed” Council on Foreign Relations. Dec 21, 2011. http://www.cfr.org/syria/why-syrias-regime-doomed/p26885]

The key for us and others AND , inclusion, and basically progress.

No impact-The plan is key to align the movements toward the West.

Tobin ’11. Jonathan S. Tobin, Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine. “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests.” [http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/]

U.S. Ambassador Robert AND now know they are not alone.

2AC – AT: Orientalism – FW

Advocating democracy assistance is key to divorce benign forms of assistance from military intervention.

Telhami 2005 (Shibley, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005)

I think we all agree thatAND the clash on the other side.

They must disprove our specific predictions.

Yudkowsky 6 – EliezerYudkowsky, Research Fellow at the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence that has published multiple peer-reviewed papers on risk assessment. Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic. August 31, 2006.

Every true idea which discomforts you AND take your eye off the ball.

Don’t essentialize our authors

Kramer 1

[Martin Kramer. editor of the Middle East Quarterly and past director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. “Ivory Towers on Sand The Failure of Middle Eastern Studies in America” THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. 2001.]

Said offered no evidence, no AND peoples of which Said complains.” 38

Neg impact claims confuse causation with correlation – our reps don’t motivate violence

Rotter 2k

[Andrew J. Rotter is a professor of history at Colgate University. “Saidism without Said: Orientalism and U.S. Diplomatic History” The American Historical Review. October 2000. Vol 105. No 4 http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ahr/105.4/ah001205.html]

A third and yet more troubling AND , on which more shortly.9

No root cause of war - studies

Sharp 8 – senior associate deputy general counsel for intelligence at the US Department of Defense, Dr. Walter, “Democracy and Deterrence”, Air Force University Press, May, http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/Books/sharp/Sharp.pdf

While classical liberals focused on political AND explaining the cause of war.37

No preemptive intervention

Kurth 6 – Prof. PoliSci @ Swarthmore College, James, “The Neoconservatives Are History”, Orbis, Fall,

Each of the three central neoconservative AND it probably won't even be tried.

Perm – do both

Rethinking isn’t enough—lack of policy relevance dooms their alternative.

Carothers 99 – VP @ Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad, p.100-1

An overarching critique of the model AND to adopting a more enlight­ened path."