Yemen on the road to stability – RTI assistance 

RTI 10 (RTI International is an independent, nonprofit research institute that provides research and technical services to government and commercial clients worldwide, “Responsive Governance for a more stable Yemen” http://www.rti.org/newsletters/witw/2010aug-sep/index.cfm?starting_up=2) 

Citizens around the world expect ...health, water, and economic growth.

Status quo solves Yemen intel coop- staying out of Yemeni politics is key  

LAT 9-15 – Los Angeles Times, “Yemen aids in terror fight,” September 15, 2011, online: http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/15/world/la-fg-yemen-intel-20110915

The embattled regime in Yemen has boosted ...Awlaki was targeted by a U.S. missile strike in Yemen.

Instability causes misinformation – turns case.

Hayward 11 (John Hayward, 06/09/11, Human Event "Bombs away in Yemen")

The no-longer-covert bombing campaign has enjoyed some ....  Hunting season in Yemen may be about to end.

Can’t solve Yemeni anti-Americanism

Terrill 11 (Andrew, Research Professor in National Security Affairs, "The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security," Defence Talk, February 15, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/)

The government of Yemen has often irritated U.S. policymakers,...to get the pronounced benefit of the doubt in any confrontation.

The status quo solves terrorism, plan makes it inevitable

Al-Ahram Weekly 2011 (“Out of the fry pan “ Yemen's Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1057/re9.htm)

After affirming a revolutionary transitional council...country from tyranny and foreign interference.

Aff leads to conflict and division among the opposition- turns the terrorism advantage

Zarate and Gordon 11 (Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. The Washington Quarterly, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Summer, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda”)

That salvo in the rhetorical battle for reform set the stage...reform-by-jihad in the Arab heartland.3

No AQAP

Said 9-21-2011 (Rajeh, analyst based in London, "Recent losses in ranks weaken al-Qaeda's capabilities" http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2011/09/21/feature-02)

During the past five months, al-Qaeda has lost several prominent ...turn al-Qaeda into a marginal group with no influence on events in the world. 

Al Qaeda is done - illiterate, can't organize, and massive resistance

Power 9-28-2011 (Jonathan Power is a veteran foreign affairs commentator based in London, "End game for Al Qaeda?" http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2011/September/opinion_September136.xml&section=opinion&col=)

If only the US and NATO could see it and understand...Qaeda is effectively all but finished as a major political force.

No risk of WMD terror -- no tech, expertise, and prefer conventional

Noah ‘9 /Timothy, senior writer at Slate, “The Burden-of-Success Theory,” Slate.com, 2-28 http://www.slate.com/id/2211997/?from=rss

In fact, the likelihood of nuclear terrorism isn't that ...casualties to 800. You'd be better off detonating a conventional bomb in a city square. 

Fragmentation obstructs plan – any assistance requires a new working government first

Stuster, 9/27/11 (Dana, Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security; “What Can the U.S. Really Do for Yemen?,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/what-can-the-us-really-do-for-yemen/245688/)

With all the focus on the unrest in Sanaa, ...and soon, before Yemen falls apart completely.

Yemen says no - they hate US intervention and the plan can't solve

Al-Ahram Weekly 2011 (“Out of the fry pan “ Yemen's Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1057/re9.htm)

Calling for honest support of Yemen's revolutionaries ...system based on justice, freedom and equality."

Assistance doesn’t work fast enough and can’t overcome overwhelming structural problems

Cordesman 10 (Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, "The True Lessons of Yemen and Detroit: How the US Must Expand and Redefine International Cooperation in Fighting Terrorism," Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 25, csis.org/files/publication/100125_Terrorism-USRoleIntCoopRev.pdf)

Yemen is a case in point. US officials have recently issued ...any practical combination of counter terrorism and aid.

Quick push for democracy causes violent backlash – prevents reform from working

International Crisis Group 2011 (POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST (II): YEMEN BETWEEN REFORM AND REVOLUTION Middle East/North Africa Report N°102 – 10 March 2011, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/102%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20_II_%20Yemen%20between%20Reform%20and%20Revolution.ashx)

The protesters, with the wind at their backs, ...to reform a failing social contract.

Peaceful transition now - newest evidence

Xinhua 9-29-2011 ("Yemeni vice president holds initial power-transfer negotiation with opposition" http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-09/29/c_131165832.htm)

Yemeni Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour...transfer after holding dialogue with the opposition.