UT

The Advantages

The United States federal government should provide political organization assistance for Syrian opposition groups.

Advantage One is Proxy War

Saudi Arabia is filling the void in Syria—that risks civil war

Mainen, 11 policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 7-25 

[Mathew, Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria, Mainen Middle East Analysis, July 25, 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]

While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing Bahrain’s

AND

 contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

Inaction by the U.S. drives militarization—that will collapse Syria and draw in Iran

WSJ 10/19

(Wall Street Journal, Nour Malas, “Violence Sharpens Syrian Conflict”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203658804576639081942444162.html)

The uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

AND

 threatening sectarian stability in neighboring Iraq and Lebanon. 

Lack of US leadership cedes hegemony to Saudi Arabia

Queenann, 11

[Gavriel, Analysis: Syria and the 'Saudi Dawn', Israeli National News, 8-14-2011, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717]

As the Obama Administration appears reticent and issues

AND

has given rise to what is being called “the Saudi Dawn.”

Saudi led assistance guarantees conflict escalation

Ghadry, 8-23 - a member of the Committee on the Present Danger

[Farid, Saudi Arabia: Keep Your Hands Off Syria, 8-23-2011, http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=53920&msgnum=442105&batchsize=10&batchtype=Next]

On August 18, after six months of the Assad regime

AND

well face far greater tragedies.

That engulfs the entire region

Safty, 10/10 Distinguished Professor at the Siberian Academy of Public Administration, 10-10-11

[Adel, “Civil war in Syria could ignite regional ethnic conflicts”, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/civil-war-in-syria-could-ignite-regional-ethnic-conflicts-1.888775, CMR]

The international community

AND

for the post-Al Assad Syria.

It goes nuclear, collapses the global economy and forces US intervention

Jain, 11 – visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, 11

[Ash, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf]

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways

AND

—though this could be complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

It also leads to chemical weapons use

Spector, 11 – Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, 8-23

[Leonard, Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance]

Let's start with the possibility of civil war

AND

 security measures at the chemical sites.

That causes Israel retaliation

Kalman, 07 [Matthew, “Israel to Syria: Use chem weapons & we'll wipe you off map”, Sept 20, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/israel-syria-chem-weapons-ll-wipe-map-article-1.245796, CMR]

Israeli officials vowed to wipe Syria

AND

member of the Israeli parliament, told the Daily News yesterday.

Nuclear war

Cordesman, 08 [Anthony H. Cordesman, holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, Aram Nerguizian, Ionut C. Popescu, “Israel and Syria: the military balance and prospects of war”, page number below, CMR]

The problem for both Israel and

AND

 is threatened or inflicted. [page 261]

Syria will use small pox

Corsi, 07 – PhD from Harvard, 7 [Jerome R. Corsi. PhD from Harvard, “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran”. World Net Daily. March 5, 2007. http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54542, CMR]

Bellamy-Decker currently directs the Public Health

AND

 outbreak back in 1972."

Extinction

Singer, 01 [Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001, Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?, p. http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm]

There are, however, two technologies currently under development

AND

may be in question when and if this is achieved.

The plan pressures other nations to isolate Syria

Young, 8-1

[Michael, Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West, The Daily Beast, August 1, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html]

Throughout, the White House has

AND

addressing the far larger community of nations.

Advantage Two is Obama Power

Obama failing to lead now—Syria’s key

Pletka and Gottlieb, 10/19 - *VP at the American Enterprise Institute AND **Professor at Columbia

 [Danielle Pletka is Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, AND Stuart, former Senate foreign policy adviser and speechwriter (1999-2003), and teaches U.S. foreign policy and national security at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, “Shrinking America's Role In the World Is the True Obama Doctrine”, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/10/19/shrinking-americas-role-in-world-is-true-obama-doctrine/, CMR]

After months of mixed messages, President Barack

AND

as an antiseptic remote control alternative to actual American leadership.

Lack of Syria policy jeopardizes Obama’s leadership

Smith, 11/7 [Lee, Senior Editor @ the Weekly Standard, “What Syria Policy?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/what-syria-policy_604182.html?page=1, CMR]

The threat against the life of the

AND

two poles. They are slower to realize that America is the other.

Failure to reverse current strategy surrenders GLOBAL leadership

Gardiner, 11 [Nile, Washington-based foreign affairs analyst and political commentator, “Barack Obama’s 'leading from behind' foreign policy”, April 26, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100085078/barack-obama%E2%80%99s-leading-from-behind-foreign-policy-no-wonder-the-us-president-looks-weak-and-confused/, CMR]

“Leading from behind” would normally

AND

 to restore its standing in the world.

This is not a soft power or credibility advantage—weak OBAMA influence from leading from behind destroys hegemony

Hulett, 9/3 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/highlight/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership, CMR)

We also know a bit more about

AND

behalf of promoting democracy and liberty.

Extinction

Barnett, 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans

AND

etting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Leading from behind causes an authoritarian counter-mobilization by Russia, China and Iran

Grygiel, 10/3 Jakub Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3, 2011, “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion,” online: http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Alas, reality is different. Democratization

AND

potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.

Successful authoritarian counterrevolution in MENA emboldens Russia and China

Puddington, 11 – Arch, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports, September 2011, “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3, online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

To be effective, this effort must be

AND

in its failure, it will, as well, set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

Russian resurgence causes global nuclear war

Blank, 09 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear states like China and

AND

 their neighbors or their own people.172

Chinese resurgence causes nuclear war

Walton, 07 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49

Obviously, it is of vital importance

AND

the greatest of the world's powers, while aiding in the creation of a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances.

Strong Obama solves Indo-Pak conflict and North Korea aggression

Hanson, 09 Victor Davis Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness to our foes and allies?

AND

quite knows whom it will bite or when.

Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Chaffin 11 Greg Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, “Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia,” online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia

The greatest threat to regional security

AND

war between the two that could quickly escalate.

North Korea conflict causes extinction  

Hayes, 10 [Peter & Michael Hamel-Green, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy, the Western partner of the Council on Foreign Relations; and the US Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia” Nautilus, Special Report, 10-001: January 5th, 2010, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf] 

The international community is

AND

how air-transported materials could similarly be intercepted.

Obama’s support for the opposition solves

Gordon, 11—foreign policy consultant and former Pentagon spokesman, 8-20

[J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB]

With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called for

AND

 and encourages rogue regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

Only Obama’s recalibration of Syria policy solves

Dorell 11 [Oren, “Syria, Libya merit different U.S. policies”, 5-15, http://www.usatoday.com/NEWS/usaedition/2011-05-16-Syria-Versus-Libya_ST_U.htm, CMR]

Some foreign policy experts say the White House is

AND

for the entire region has to be redone."

Solvency

Contention Three is Solvency

US action is inevitable it’s only a question

Rogin, 12-28

[Josh, Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition, Foreign Policy, 12-28-2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition]

As the violence in Syria spirals out of control, top officials

AND

you look at the possible ramifications, it's mindboggling."

Direct engagement with the opposition compresses the timeline and prevents a power vacuum

Doran, 11 senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 8-2

[Michael, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, 8 & Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Getting Serious in Syria, American Interest Online, August 2, 2011,  http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001]

The Syrian status quo, whatever is left of it

AND

a genuine process of transition to begin.

The plan crowds out regional competitors

Al-Assad, 11 Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria, 8-10

[Ribal, The struggle for Syria, Global Public Square, August 10, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/]

CAIRO – As the violence in Syria mounts, the international

AND

force for stability throughout the region.

It also counterbalances Islamist groups

London, 8-15 - President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University

[Herbert, U.S. Betrays Syria's Opposition, Hudson Institute, August 15, 2011, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=8223]

After the bloodshed made international headlines,

AND

 invariably opposes this political view.

Inaction makes civil war inevitable and is a bigger risk than the kiss of death

Shaikh, 10/12 director of the Brookings Doha Center, 10-12

[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=1]

The longer the current situation lasts,

AND

 and preparing for a post-Assad Syria.

US’s refusal to create a Syria policy will LOCK it out of influencing the direction of Syria’s future allowing Iran to either deter support or force regional allies to press ahead with armed resistance

Badran, 10/6 research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10-6

[Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Obama abandoning interest in Syria, Now Lebanon, 10-6-2011, http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=319001&MID=0&PID=0]

With the Syrian revolution on the verge of

AND

, the Obama administration may be wishing for someone else to carry the burden of leadership. However, that is simply not an option.

US support for democratic reform is CRITICAL to successful transition.

Badran, 9/22

[Tony, Research Fellow  Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Axis of Abuse:

U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II, Congressional Testimony, 9-22-2011, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf]

We have reached a potentially dangerous

AND

 review of the administration’s Syria policy.

Direct US support to broaden the current coalition is key to preventing violence – arguments that the US should sit it out ignore the increasing risk of civil war.

Shaikh, 10/12

[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=1]

The United States should also recognize the Syrian

AND

 do not act quickly, Syria will descend into chaos.

Support for secular groups key to gain support of military and business elites and prevent violent collapse of the Assad regime.

Yacoubian, 10/5 senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 10-5

[Mona, Saving Syria from civil war, FP, 10-5-2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war]

As Syria's uprising lurches

AND

commercial sector, rejuvenating the opposition without spurring further violence.

See UTD BM and KV

1AC

The United States federal government should provide political organization assistance for Syrian opposition groups.

Contention One is Warming—

Syria is critical to American credibility
Doran 8/22
(Michael, former senior director for the Middle East at the U.S. National Security Council/ Roger Hertog senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Policy, The Nexus and the Olive Tree, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full)
Pressing though these questions may be, they must not

AND

that it will produce a different result in the future. 

Resolute action in Syria is the key internal link—lack of action undermines global credibility
Singh 8/16
(Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council., The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1697)
When the story of the Arab Spring is written in Arabic, it 

AND

in Syria and the region that Washington despite its rhetoric will once again need to deal with him. 

Credibility solves climate change
Nye 11
(Joseph S. Nye Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, God of Soft Power “The Future of Power”, 2011, CMR)67
Today, power in the world is distributed in a pattern that 

AND

stimulating that broader narrative are the purposes of this book. [xvi-xvii]

It’s also unique—the plan’s revitalization of credibility spurs action to prevent warming
Hague, 10 – British Foreign Secretary and Secretary of State (William, 9/27/10, “The Diplomacy of Climate Change”, http://www.cfr.org/energy/russell-c-leffingwell-lecture-diplomacy-climate-change/p23037, KONTOPOULOS)
But I particularly wanted to make the point to 

AND

shape our world. And if we don't, the world will determine our destiny for us.

Next are the impacts—
Warming will hit developing and indefensible countries the hardest—inaction magnifies all their “injustice” arguments
Stern, 07- Nicholas, Head of the British Government Economic Service 2007 (Former Head Economist for the World Bank, I.G. Patel Chair at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, The report of a team commissioned by the British Government to study the economics of climate change led by Siobhan Peters, Head of G8 and International Climate Change Policy Unit, Cambridge University Press, p. 94-99)
Exposure: The geography of many developing 

AND

would help to manage and cope with the effects of climate change but receive weak support and attention in developing countries

By voting negative you perpetuate the double inequity of climate change whereby rich countries are responsible for emissions while poor countries bear the brunt of the consequences. Voting affirmative marks a line in the sand that demonstrates rich countries must be held accountable for their actions and prevent consequences before they emerge.
Stern, 07 – Nicholas,  Head of the British Government Economic Service, 2007 (Former Head Economist for the World Bank, I.G. Patel Chair at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, The report of a team commissioned by the British Government to study the economics of climate change led by Siobhan Peters, Head of G8 and International Climate Change Policy Unit, Cambridge University Press, p. 29)
The incremental impact of a tonne of GHG is independent 

AND

countries will be particularly badly hit.

Ethical obligation to vote aff
Sunstein, 07, Professor in the Department of Political Science and at the Law School of the University of Chicago, 2007 (Cass R., “Worst-Case Scenarios”, Harvard University Press)
Most worst-case scenarios appear to have an element of irreversibility. 

AND

with far more aggressive measures than would otherwise seem justified

Science proves—the earth will explode
Chalko, 04, Ph. D. and Professor of Geophysics at Mt. Best, 10/30/2004 (Thomas, http://nujournal.net/core.pdf)
Abstract: The heat generated inside our planet \

AND

 begun to melt. Do we have enough imagination, intelligence and integrity to comprehend the danger before the situation becomes irreversible?

Environmental catastrophe devastates value to life—we have an obligation to maintain the Earth so everyone can choose their lifestyle
Cerutti, 07, Professor of Political Philosophy at the University of Florence, 2007 (Furio, “Global Challenges for Leviathan: A Political Philosophy of Nuclear Weapons and Global Warming.” Lexington Books. p. 140-1)
In the light of those standards it is not difficult to see that teleological theories 

AND

 order to bring down greenhouse emissions.

Warming kills 160,000 a year
Ward, 08, Professor of Geological Sciences at University of Washington, 2008 (Peter, “Under a Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Tell Us About Our Future”, p. 186)
THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT HUMAN MORTALITY FROM 

AND

 double by the year 2020.

Next is the strongest defense of our methodology—
Consensus there is rapid human induced warming now—numerous and best studies prove
Rahmstorf, 08, Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, 2008 (Richard, Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto, ed. Ernesto Zedillo, Chapter 3, “Anthropogenic Climate Change?” p. 42-49)
It is time to turn to statement B: human activities are altering 

AND

(many of whom were initially quite skeptical, including myself) that anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal.

Peer reviewed studies prove our impacts truth claims
Davies, 08, Author and Geophysicist at the Australian National University, 6/11/2008 (Dr. Geoff, Science Alert, “Why listen to scientists?”, http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20081106-17474.html)
Professor Don Aitkin’s recent promotion (PDF 258KB) of 

AND

three decades ago are being broadly vindicated.

Contention Two: Solvency

US action is inevitable it’s only a question of scope
Rogin, 12-28
[Josh, Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition, Foreign Policy, 12-28-2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition]
As the violence in Syria spirals out of control, top 

AND

you look at the possible ramifications, it's mindboggling."

The alternative to the plan is military intervention
Saddy 9/28
(Fehmy, served as advisor to governments, corporations and international development insitutions - including the World Bank Group and Islamic Development Bank. He served as a diplomat in the Syrian Foreign Service and then pursued a career in academia, teaching at the American University of Washington, Beirut and Kuwait. He holds LLB and LLM degrees in International Law as well as a PhD in International Studies., Aljazeera, The Arab Spring and Syria’s Long Winter, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192395146840552.html)
If the Assad regime continues to be in a state of denial, 

AND

 Of course, Israel will not stand by and accept a drastic shift in the regional power structure.

Direct engagement with the opposition compresses the timeline and prevents a power vacuum
Doran, 11 senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 8-2
[Michael, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, 8 & Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Getting Serious in Syria, American Interest Online, August 2, 2011,  http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001]
The Syrian status quo, whatever is left of it

AND

crackdown and allowing a genuine process of transition to begin.

Inaction makes civil war inevitable and is a bigger risk than the kiss of death
Shaikh, 10/12 director of the Brookings Doha Center, 10-12
[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=1]
The longer the current situation lasts, the more likely 

AND

supporting the protests and preparing for a post-Assad Syria.

Email DR_Mott@hotmail.com

Advantages

The United States federal government should substantially increase political organization training to democratic opposition groups based in Syria.

Contention One is Proxy War

Saudi Arabia is filling the void in Syria—that risks civil war
Mainen, 11 policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 7-25  
[Mathew, Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria, Mainen Middle East Analysis, July 25, 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]
While Saudi Arabia’s involvement 

AND

 a Saudi proxy. 

Inaction by the U.S. drives militarization—that will collapse Syria and draw in Iran
WSJ 10/19
(Wall Street Journal, Nour Malas, “Violence Sharpens Syrian Conflict”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203658804576639081942444162.html)
The uprising against

AND

 neighboring Iraq and Lebanon.  

Lack of US leadership cedes hegemony to Saudi Arabia
Queenann, 11
[Gavriel, Analysis: Syria and the 'Saudi Dawn', Israeli National News, 8-14-2011, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717]
As the Obama Administration 

AND

called “the Saudi Dawn.” 

Saudi led assistance guarantees conflict escalation
Ghadry, 8-23 - a member of the Committee on the Present Danger
[Farid, Saudi Arabia: Keep Your Hands Off Syria, 8-23-2011, http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=53920&msgnum=442105&batchsize=10&batchtype=Next]
On August 18, after 

AND

 far greater tragedies. 

That engulfs the entire region
Safty, 10/10 Distinguished Professor at the Siberian Academy of Public Administration, 10-10-11
[Adel, “Civil war in Syria could ignite regional ethnic conflicts”, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/civil-war-in-syria-could-ignite-regional-ethnic-conflicts-1.888775, CMR]
The international community 

AND

post-Al Assad Syria.

It goes nuclear, collapses the global economy and forces US intervention
Jain, 11 – visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, 11
[Ash, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf]
As it looks 

AND

of a nuclear Iran. 

It also leads to chemical weapons use
Spector, 11 – Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, 8-23
[Leonard, Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance]
Let's start with 

AND

 at the chemical sites. 

That causes Israel retaliation
Kalman, 07 [Matthew, “Israel to Syria: Use chem weapons & we'll wipe you off map”, Sept 20, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/israel-syria-chem-weapons-ll-wipe-map-article-1.245796, CMR]
Israeli officials vowed 

AND

the Daily News yesterday.

Nuclear war
Cordesman, 08 [Anthony H. Cordesman, holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, Aram Nerguizian, Ionut C. Popescu, “Israel and Syria: the military balance and prospects of war”, page number below, CMR]
The problem for 

AND

threatened or inflicted. [page 261]

Syria will use small pox
Corsi, 07 – PhD from Harvard, 7 [Jerome R. Corsi. PhD from Harvard, “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran”. World Net Daily. March 5, 2007. http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54542, CMR]
Bellamy-Decker currently 

AND

back in 1972."

Extinction
Singer, 01 [Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001, Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?, p. http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm]
There are, however, 

AND

when and if this is achieved.

The plan pressures other nations to isolate Syria
Young, 8-1
[Michael, Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West, The Daily Beast, August 1, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html]
Throughout, the White House 

AND

larger community of nations.

Contention Two is Obama Power

Obama failing to lead now—Syria’s key
Pletka and Gottlieb, 10/19 - *VP at the American Enterprise Institute AND Professor at Columbia
 [Danielle Pletka is Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, AND Stuart, former Senate foreign policy adviser and speechwriter (1999-2003), and teaches U.S. foreign policy and national security at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, “Shrinking America's Role In the World Is the True Obama Doctrine”, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/10/19/shrinking-americas-role-in-world-is-true-obama-doctrine/, CMR]
After months of mixed 

AND

actual American leadership.

Lack of Syria policy jeopardizes Obama’s leadership
Smith, 11/7 [Lee, Senior Editor @ the Weekly Standard, “What Syria Policy?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/what-syria-policy_604182.html?page=1, CMR]
The threat against 

AND

that America is the other.

This policy abdicates US leadership—only US action can ensure successful transition and regional hegemony
Doran, 12-13 [Michael, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy The Brookings Institution, United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?, Brookings, 12-13-2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1213_syria_doran.aspx, SH]
If so, then 

AND

unlikely to win. 

This is not a soft power or credibility advantage—weak OBAMA influence from leading from behind destroys hegemony
Hulett, 9/3 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/highlight/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership, CMR)
We also know 

AND

promoting democracy and liberty. 

Hegemony is vital to preventing great power wars – it’s sustainable if the US maintains comparative military advantages
Kagan, 1-17-12 – Robert Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, “Not Fade Away: Against the Myth of American Decline,” Originally at TNR, Republished in Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0117_us_power_kagan.aspx.
Is the United 

AND

has not yet arrived. 

Obama’s weakness on Syria causes conflict with Iran, North Korea, China, and Venezuela
Meyers & Walter 1-11 (Jim & Kathleen, “Oliver North: Obama Has Made US a 'Hollow Threat'”, http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/North-Obama-Iran-Strike/2012/01/11/id/423818, CMR)
Decorated military veteran and 

AND

war to start demobilizing today.”

Chinese resurgence causes nuclear war
Walton, 07 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is 

AND

great power alliances.

US failure to check Iranian aggression makes Israeli strikes imminent—optimists are wrong
Maginnis 12-13 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Israel Rightly Mum About Iran Attack Plans”, [accessed 12-23-11], http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=48117

The Israelis will 

AND

President’s numerous misjudgments. 

Their window for opportunity is closing—timeframe is the next six months
Makovsky 11-26 (David, distinguished fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute, “Israel's Closing Window to Strike Iran”, [accessed 12-23-11], http://www.realclearworld.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/11/26/israels_closing_window_to_strike_iran_99772-full.html, CMR)

In a revealing interview 

AND

giving interviews on the subject. 

The impact is great power wars
Trabanco ‘9 – Independent researcher of geopoltical and military affairs [José Miguel Alonso Trabanco (Degree in international relations @ Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Studies, Mexico City & frequent contributor to Global Research), “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime,” Global Research, January 13, 2009, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762, CMR]
China has become 

AND

middle of a powder keg. 

Extinction
Hirsch 6 - Professor of physics @ University of California, San Diego. [Jorge Hirsch, “Israel, Iran and the US: Who Will be Blamed for Nuclear War?,” Global Research, July 24, 2006, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=2807, CMR]
In the end of course 

AND

Earth, comes to an end. 

The plan solves—OBAMA’s support for the opposition demonstrates strong Syria policy
Ajami 1-6 (senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and co-chair of Hoover's Working Group on Islamism and the International Order, Fouad, “America and the Solitude of the Syrians”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203462304577139434278336136.html, CMR)
The U.S. response 

AND

are on their own.

Solvency

Contention Three is Solvency

US action is inevitable it’s only a question of the scope
Rogin, 12-28
[Josh, Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition, Foreign Policy, 12-28-2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition]
As the violence in Syria 

AND

ramifications, it's mindboggling."

Focus on internal opposition is key – they are best situated to make a difference on the ground.
Chenoweth, 12-10
[Erica, Assistant Professor of Government at Wesleyan University, 13 Ways to Support the Syrian Opposition Right Now, Rational Insurgent, 12-10-2011, http://rationalinsurgent.wordpress.com/2011/12/10/13-ways-to-support-the-syrian-opposition-right-now/]
Support forums for 

AND

helpful down the road. 

US must reach out to secular community as well – sole support for the SNC hands the future of Syria to the MB.
Mauro, 9-27
[Ryan, the founder of WorldThreats.com, the national security adviser for the Christian Action Network, an analyst with Wikistrat and is a frequent contributor to Fox News, Helping Islamists Take Syria, Frontpage, 9-27-2011, http://frontpagemag.com/2011/09/27/helping-islamists-take-syria/]
Shockingly, the U.S. State 

AND

to the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Broad based support builds counterweight to Islamist groups.  
London, 8-15 - President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University
[Herbert, U.S. Betrays Syria's Opposition, Hudson Institute, August 15, 2011, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=8223]
After the bloodshed 

AND

this political view.

Support for secular groups key to gain support of military and business elites and prevent violent collapse of the Assad regime.
Yacoubian, 11
[Mona, senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Saving Syria from civil war, FP, 10-5-2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war]
As Syria's uprising 

AND

without spurring further violence.

US targeting aid to Islamist groups in Syria isolates minority groups and empowers radicals
Rubin, 10-22
[Barry, Director, SCOOP: Obama Administration Does it Again! Empowers Largely Islamist Leadership for Syrian Revolution, Rubin Reports, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/10/22/scoop-obama-administration-does-it-again/]
The leadership of 

AND

they are of a different composition. 

Establishing diplomatic boots on the ground vital to US influence with the next government, checking Iran and preventing CBW use.
Silverman, 12-7
[Michael, US Army (ret) served in the military for over 25 years including three combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of “Awakening Victory: How Iraqi Tribes and American Troops Reclaimed al Anbar Province and Defeated al Qaeda In Iraq, he currently serves as a consultant to the US Army and is recognized as an expert on counterinsurgency, Laissez-faire approach in Libya may not work at all in Syria, CSM, 12-7-2011, http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/laissez-faire-approach-libya-may-not-work-all-syria?page=full]
Syria is a different story. 

AND

to those principles. It must not lose the opportunity in Syria.