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Plan – The United States federal government should provide political organization assistance for Syrian opposition groups.
Saudi Arabia is filling the void in Syria, sparking sectarian conflict and risking full scale civil war in order to confront Iran.
Mainen, 7-25 - policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs
[Mathew, Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria, Mainen Middle East Analysis, July 25, 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]
While Saudi Arabia’s involvement...contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.
The opposition is remaining non-violent but militarization is inevitable and increases the risk of civil war daily
Ibish, 9-6 - senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine and a columnist for Now Lebanon
[Hussein, Is Civil War in Syria Inevitable?, Assyrian International News Agency, 9-6-2011, http://www.aina.org/news/20110906142551.htm]
The prospects for a full-blown...The stakes would simply be too high.
Lack of US leadership in Syria cedes hegemony to Saudi Arabia.
Queenann, 8-14
[Gavriel, Analysis: Syria and the 'Saudi Dawn', Israeli National News, 8-14-2011, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717]
As the Obama Administration appears reticent ...“the Saudi Dawn.”
Saudi led assistance guarantees Islamist government in Syria – broader support for democratic opposition is key to prevent escalation.
Ghadry, 8-23 - a member of the Committee on the Present Danger
[Farid, Saudi Arabia: Keep Your Hands Off Syria, Pajamas Media, 8-23-2011, http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/saudi-arabia-keep-your-hands-off-syria/2/]
On August 18, after six months of the Assad...may well face far greater tragedies.
Saudi Arabia must balance pressure against Assad – too much pressure risks internal backlash and friction with the US.
Saab, 8-31 - visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies
[Bilal, How Saudi Arabia Can Contain Iran -- and Other Benefits From Syria's Turmoil, Assyrian International News Agency, 8-31-2011, http://www.aina.org/news/2011083118589.htm]
But turning a blind eye...Egypt and rising Turkey. And then Tehran would rejoice.
AND, the impacts –
Saudi-Iran confrontation in Syria escalates to open conflict.
Hardy, 3-27
[Frank, Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?, Suite 101, March 27, 2011, http://www.suite101.com/content/will-cries-for-democracy-shift-to-sectarian-violence-in-syria-a362174]
The latest Arab uprising, on the...her greatest destruction.
Iran-Saudi war goes nuclear, collapses the global economy and guarantees US intervention.
Jain, 11 - , a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010
[Ash, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf]
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways...complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.
AND,
Iran – Saudi Proxy war leads to chemical weapons use.
Spector, 8-23 – Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies
[Leonard, Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance]
Let's start with...measures at the chemical sites.
That causes immediate nuclear retaliation by Israel.
Lindsey, 2k7
[Hal, “The Sampson Option” World Net Daily, July 14, 2007, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56663]
Syria recently test...nuking the Middle East.
And this guarantees nuclear use and ensures escalation and prolif.
Utgoff 2k1 (Victor A, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, “The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Deterring Chemical and Biological Attacks,” 10/10/2001, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/544343/posts)
This logic implies...large-scale CB attacks.
Even a limited nuclear war causes extinction
Hoffman 2k6
(Staffwriter, “'Nuclear winter' looms, experts say,” Inside Bay Area (California)
Researchers at the...blasts and radiation.
And, the plan solves - US must take a leadership role to pressure other nations to isolate Syria – the alternative is Arab led sectarian conflict.
Young, 8-1
[Michael, Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West, The Daily Beast, August 1, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html]
Throughout, the White House...larger community of nations.
Russia and the U.S. are engaged in a zero-sum battle for influence in Syria – there’s no chance for cooperation
LaFranchi, ‘11. Howard, “As West labors in Libya and Syria, Russia seizes an opportunity”, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0617/As-West-labors-in-Libya-and-Syria-Russia-seizes-an-opportunity, CMR
With the West, including the...calling for action against the Assad regime.
US-Russia competition over Syria is inevitable; it’s only a question of whether America can capitalize on pro-democracy movements to halt Syrian arms sales and naval basing
Nassar, ’11 – Galal, “Superpower checkmate”, 7/1/11, Al-Ahram, Egyptian newspaper, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1054/op2.htm, CMR
Since World War II...probably sooner than many expect.
Scenario One is the Nuclear Reset—
Arms sales unravel the nuclear “reset” and cause US-Russian conflict
Bogdanov, 8-15-11 – Konstantin, RIA Novosti, “U.S. Seeking to Deprive Syria of Russian Weapons,”
http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Defence_Arms_13/U-S-Seeking-to-Deprive-Syria-of-Russian-Weapons.shtml.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary...elections in the United States.
Failure to “reset” nuclear policy puts us 2 minutes away from the world’s most deadly extinction scenario
Hallam et al, ‘9 – John, Editor of Nuclear Flashpoints, John Burroughs and Marcy Fowler, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, 2009, NPT Preparatory Committee, Steps Toward a Safer World, http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/ngostatements/Steps.pdf.
Why did an article in...nuclear weapon systems.
Scenario Two is Unipolarity—
Syrian bases are part of a broader challenge to US leadership – it also wrecks the peace process
Tisdall, ‘7 – Simon, “Russia seeks its place in the sun” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldbriefing/story/0,,2150659,00.html]
President Vladimir Putin...US regional and global leadership.
Russian challenges to the US in Syria destroy unipolarity and regional stability
Cohen, and Blank, ’11 – Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Stephen J. Blank, Ph.D., is Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Army War College, “Reset Regret: Russian Global Strategy Undermines American Interests”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/08/Reset-Regret-Russian-Global-Strategy-Undermines-US-Interests, CMR.
Anti-American Partnerships Moscow...another ally in the Middle East.
Unipolarity makes great power war obsolete and establishes global peace
Jervis, ‘9 – Former Gov’t Prof @ Harvard & UCLA, “Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective,” March, World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009, pp.188-213, JSTOR.
At the extreme, then...be an enabling one.12
Independently, the Peace Process solves global nuclear war
Nawash, ‘9 – Kamal Nawash, Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), Founder, Free Muslims Coalition, Republican candidate for Virginia State Senate, "Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War," January 10, 2009, <online> http://www.freemuslims.org/news.php?id=4240
Surprise, surprise, once again...time is running out.
Coordinating communication and political training is vital to success of the post-Assad regime. US should take a supporting role in aiding the opposition.
Root, 7-17
[Tik, Moving Syria Forward, Mideast Reports, July 17, 2011, http://www.mideastreports.org/blog/2011/7/17/moving-syria-forward.html]
If Washington commits...formation of an alternative.
Direct engagement with the opposition compresses the timeline and prevents a power vacuum.
Doran & Shaikh, 8-2 – senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution & director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy
[Michael & Salman, Getting Serious in Syria, American Interest Online, August 2, 2011, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001]
The Syrian status quo...of transition to begin.
US support for national dialog prevents sectarian conflict and crowds out regional competitors.
Al-Assad, 8-10 - Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria
[Ribal, The struggle for Syria, Global Public Square, August 10, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/]
CAIRO – As the violence in Syria...stability throughout the region.