Russia Adv

ADVANTAGE THREE: RUSSIA

Russia and the U.S. are engaged in a zero-sum battle for influence in Syria – there’s no chance for cooperation 

LaFranchi, ‘11. Howard, “As West labors in Libya and Syria, Russia seizes an opportunity”, , CMR

With the West, including the United States, stuck in a military stalemate in Libya, … Syria, for example – would be if countries in the region begin calling for action against the Assad regime.

US-Russia competition over Syria is inevitable; it’s only a question of whether America can capitalize on pro-democracy movements to halt Syrian arms sales and naval basing

Nassar, ’11 – Galal, “Superpower checkmate”, 7/1/11, Al-Ahram, Egyptian newspaper, , CMR

Since World War II, the Middle East often seemed … . If they do not, the region will be headed for yet more dramatic changes -- probably sooner than many expect.

Arms sales unravel the nuclear “reset” and cause US-Russia conflict escalation by empowering hard-liners on missile defense

Bogdanov, 8-15-11 – Konstantin, RIA Novosti, “U.S. Seeking to Deprive Syria of Russian Weapons,”

. 

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has urged Russia to … of the Republican Party ahead of the 2012 elections in the United States.

Failure to “reset” nuclear policy puts us 2 minutes away from the world’s most deadly extinction scenario

Hallam et al, ‘9 – John, Editor of Nuclear Flashpoints, John Burroughs and Marcy Fowler, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, 2009, NPT Preparatory Committee, Steps Toward a Safer World, .

Why did an article in the September 2008 edition of the Bulletin of the … promises to negotiate with Russia to achieve lower operational status of nuclear weapon systems.

Syrian bases are part of a broader challenge to US regional and global leadership – it also wrecks the peace process

Tisdall, ‘7 – Simon, “Russia seeks its place in the sun” The Guardian, ]

President Vladimir Putin, involved in a bare-chested global …  a bigger, bolder bid to challenge US regional and global leadership

Russian challenges to the US in Syria destroy unipolarity and regional stability

Cohen, and Blank, ’11 – Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Stephen J. Blank, Ph.D., is Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Army War College, “Reset Regret: Russian Global Strategy Undermines American Interests”, , CMR.

Anti-American Partnerships Moscow has formed partnerships with China, Iran, and Venezuela to prevent the … Russian control. Therefore, Russia obstructs U.N. resolutions of censure against Syria. French diplomats who negotiated with Russia believe that Moscow most fears the loss of another ally in the Middle East.

Unipolarity makes great power war obsolete, puts a magnitude cap on all conflict and establishes global peace – bipolarity causes anarchy and rampant security concerns

Jervis, ‘9 – Former Gov’t Prof @ Harvard & UCLA, “Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective,” March, World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009, pp.188-213, JSTOR.

At the extreme, then, unipolarity takes states out of anarchy … conducive to peace throughout the world, but although structure would play a role here, it would at most be an enabling one.12

Independently, the Peace Process solves global nuclear war

Nawash, ‘9 – Kamal Nawash, Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), Founder, Free Muslims Coalition, Republican candidate for Virginia State Senate, "Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War," January 10, 2009, <online> http://www.freemuslims.org/news.php?id=4240

Surprise, surprise, once again the Palestinian/Israeli conflict spirals out of control. However, this particular … to end the conflict? The answer is YES but time is running out.

The Aff can effectively roll back a half decade’s worth of Russian progress – it’d bring arms sales and the Tartus base to a halt

Karasik, ’11 – Dr. Theodore, Director, R&D, INEGMA, “Russia’s Plight During The Arab Spring: Libya And Syria – Analysis”, 7/13/2011, , CMR

The recent burning of Russian flags, along with Iranian and Hizbollah flags, … by the lack of mutual understanding and the very cautious approach between Russia and the GCC states will need to be re- justified, as market conditions and political realities show a new landscape.

Unilateral US action sends a key signal that damages Russian status, prestige and influence in the Middle East

Blank, ’11 – Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College. Stephen, “Russia’s Anxieties About The Arab Revolution – Analysis”, , CMR

Another reason for Russian opposition to intervention lies in the fact that … of tactical flexibility that Moscow prides itself on possessing.

SAUDI/PROXY WAR

Recent defections put Syria on the brink of collapse- means high risk of proxy war 

Reuters 9/28

(Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent, “As Troops Defect, Syria Risks Civil War”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/28/us-syria-conflict-idUSTRE78R36J20110928)

As Syrian army defectors begin launching attacks on … unity within the Syrian people and building a realistic alternative."

RUSSIA

Scenario three is Shipping Lanes—

Tartus is critical to Russian regional posturing and their ability to disrupt key shipping lanes

Blanche 8
(Ed, a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, is a Beirut-based journalist who has covered Middle Eastern affairs for three decades. , The Russian are Coming, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2742/is_395/ai_n31874665/)
"What is clear is that the Russians are moving ahead rapidly …air strikes against targets in Syria, or even in Iran.

The impact is a cataclysmic oil crisis and great power wars.

Kimery 8
(Anthony L., Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor, Oil Disruptions Threaten National Security, August 18, http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/oil-disruptions-threaten-national-security/94c2f1e00a48f4dadf2cfb9734f72e88.html)
This past year, the Office of Director of National Intelligence presciently warned … could result in widespread economic dislocation and increased global instability. 

US assistance is currently focused on the Muslim Brotherhood to the exclusion of secular opposition.

Himelfarb, 6-6

[Joel, Ghadry: Assad Will Fall, But the Brotherhood May Follow, IPT News, June 6, 2011, http://www.investigativeproject.org/2944/ghadry-assad-will-fall-but-the-brotherhood-may]

The wave of unrest sweeping Syria will drive … revolutionaries aligned with the Ayatollah Khomeini. That scenario will repeat itself in Syria if the Brotherhood takes power, Ghadry warned. 

Unchecked MB in Syria leads to an attack against Israel.

NTEB, 4-29

[Muslim Brotherhood Urges Protests In Syria, Now the End Begins, 4-29-2011, ]

If you do a search on the site using the terms ‘muslim brotherhood’, …. President Bashar al Assad’s autocratic rule erupted six weeks ago.

Extinction

Moore, 7 – BA, political science from Wayne State

[Carol, U.S. AND ISRAELI THREATS AND PLANS  TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, Carolmoore.net, November 2007, http://carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/]

Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters ….  Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.

Plan is massively popular- both sides support regime change

Kim 11
 (Seung Min, Staff, Politco, Obama Almost Wins Over Hill on Syria, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61658.html)

President Barack Obama almost caught a break on … alarming and reflect a long history of anti-American hostility.”

Plan is popular – both sides want more direct and resolute action

Richter 11
 (Paul, LA Times, Tough Bipartisan Questioning by Congress on U.S. Policy Towards Syria, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/28/world/la-fg-us-syria-20110728)

Senior State Department officials came under … swept through the Middle East and North Africa this year.

Winners win 

Wagner, ‘11 [Alex, “Keeping Calm and Carrying On: Obama's Focused Style Brought Wins in the End”, , CMR]

"Keep Calm and Carry On" -- a British poster created at the …. has showed some real leadership."

Durbin loves the plan-

Global Newswire 8/23
(Syrian American Organization Applauds US and UN Actions Against Assad, http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=230263)
Arab Spring for Syria (ASFS) applauds President Obama's call for …… action against Assad. This support is required for the attainment of popular sovereignty and universal human rights in Syria.

He’s key to the agenda

Pearson ‘8 [Rick, “Friends in high places; If Obama wins presidency, fellow Illinoisans Durbin, Emanuel would be key allies on Hill”, Chicago Tribune, Aug 27, lexis]

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson likes to pay homage to Sen. Dick Durbin, …… in leadership, then [Obama] is going to have that momentum, particularly if Democrats make gains in Congress."

Middle East assistance is vital to replenishing capital

James Miller, ’11 – “Obama, the Middle East, and Domestic Politics,” Dissected News, 5-20, .

Despite the planned troop drawdown in Afghanistan, the American people are ….. accomplish any of his goals before a heated election campaign in 2012.

The turn is try or die – the GOP is feasting on Obama’s inaction

Washington Times, 8-22-11 – “GOP rivals say Obama faltered on Assad; Urge leadership in foreign policy,” Lexis.

Republican White House hopefuls are attacking President's ….. to realize that Syria is a threat to not just the region, but to its own people."

New Russia Scenerio-

Tartus is critical to Russian regional posturing and their ability to disrupt key shipping lanes

Blanche 8
 (Ed, a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, is a Beirut-based journalist who has covered Middle Eastern affairs for three decades. , The Russian are Coming, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2742/is_395/ai_n31874665/)
 "What is clear is that the Russians are …, or even in Iran.

The impact is a cataclysmic oil crisis and great power wars.

Kimery 8
(Anthony L., Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor, Oil Disruptions Threaten National Security, August 18, http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/oil-disruptions-threaten-national-security/94c2f1e00a48f4dadf2cfb9734f72e88.html)
This past year, the Office of Director of National Intelligence … increased global instability.

Refugee crisis triggers hardline Turkish nationalism

Cagaptay & Tabler 11
 (Soner Cagaptay is director of the  at The Washington Institute. Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Institute's , The Consequences of Syrian Refugees in Turkey, June 14, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1653)A flow of Syrian refugees into ... Alawite and Sunni populations.

Hardline nationalism will trigger Turkish proliferation.

Barkey 09
(Dr. Henri J. Barkey is a visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program and the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor at Lehigh University, “ Turkey’s Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Disarmament,” September, )

The second factor that could e... agreements to remain non-nuclear.

Causes cascading prolif and nuclear war

Sokolski 7
 (Henry, What Nuclear Challenges Might the EU Meet? The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, June 14,  )

One country that might disagree ... for nuclear terrorism and war.

Saudi Arabia is filling the void in Syria, sparking sectarian conflict and risking full scale civil war in order to confront Iran. 
Mainen, 7-25 - policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs
[Mathew, Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria, Mainen Middle East Analysis, July 25, 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]
While Saudi Arabia’s involvement...contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

The opposition is remaining non-violent but militarization is inevitable and increases the risk of civil war daily
Ibish, 9-6 - senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine and a columnist for Now Lebanon
[Hussein, Is Civil War in Syria Inevitable?, Assyrian International News Agency, 9-6-2011, http://www.aina.org/news/20110906142551.htm]
The prospects for a full-blown...The stakes would simply be too high.

Lack of US leadership in Syria cedes hegemony to Saudi Arabia. 
Queenann, 8-14
[Gavriel, Analysis: Syria and the 'Saudi Dawn', Israeli National News, 8-14-2011, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717]
As the Obama Administration appears reticent ...“the Saudi Dawn.”

Saudi led assistance guarantees Islamist government in Syria – broader support for democratic opposition is key to prevent escalation. 
Ghadry, 8-23 - a member of the Committee on the Present Danger
[Farid, Saudi Arabia: Keep Your Hands Off Syria, Pajamas Media, 8-23-2011, http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/saudi-arabia-keep-your-hands-off-syria/2/]
On August 18, after six months of the Assad...may well face far greater tragedies.

Saudi Arabia must balance pressure against Assad – too much pressure risks internal backlash and friction with the US. 
Saab, 8-31 - visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies
[Bilal, How Saudi Arabia Can Contain Iran -- and Other Benefits From Syria's Turmoil, Assyrian International News Agency, 8-31-2011, http://www.aina.org/news/2011083118589.htm]
But turning a blind eye...Egypt and rising Turkey. And then Tehran would rejoice.

AND, the impacts – 

Saudi-Iran confrontation in Syria escalates to open conflict. 
Hardy, 3-27
[Frank, Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?, Suite 101, March 27, 2011, http://www.suite101.com/content/will-cries-for-democracy-shift-to-sectarian-violence-in-syria-a362174]
 The latest Arab uprising, on the...her greatest destruction.

Iran-Saudi war goes nuclear, collapses the global economy and guarantees US intervention. 
Jain, 11 - , a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010
[Ash, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf]
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways...complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

AND,

Iran – Saudi Proxy war leads to chemical weapons use. 
Spector, 8-23 – Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies
[Leonard, Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance]
Let's start with...measures at the chemical sites.

That causes immediate nuclear retaliation by Israel. 
Lindsey, 2k7
[Hal, “The Sampson Option” World Net Daily, July 14, 2007, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56663]
 Syria recently test...nuking the Middle East.

Even a limited nuclear war causes extinction
Hoffman 2k6
(Staffwriter, “'Nuclear winter' looms, experts say,” Inside Bay Area (California)
Researchers at the...blasts and radiation.

Syria has stocks of small-pox – an attack would go global.

Corsi 7 [Jerome R. Corsi. PhD from Harvard, “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran”. World Net Daily. March 5, 2007. , CMR]

Bellamy-Decker currently directs … back in 1972."

That’s extinction
 Singer 01 Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001, Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?, p. http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm

There are… is achieved.

And, the plan solves - US must take a leadership role to pressure other nations to isolate Syria – the alternative is Arab led sectarian conflict. 
Young, 8-1
[Michael, Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West, The Daily Beast, August 1, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html]
Throughout, the White House...larger community of nations.

Credibility ADV

Syria is the key test for American credibility in the Middle East. Absent the plan regional adversaries will test the United States and trigger multiple scenarios for regional aggression

Doran 8-22    

[Michael, former senior director for the Middle East at the U.S. National Security Council/ Roger Hertog senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Policy, The Nexus and the Olive Tree, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full]

Pressing though these questions may be, they must not be permitted to drive out … is no reason to believe that it will produce a different result in the future.

Weak foreign policy leads to belligerence from adversaries

Bolton 9 - Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute [John R. Bolton (Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) “The danger of Obama's dithering,” Los Angeles Times, October 18, 2009, pg. http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18]

Weakness in American foreign policy in one region often … that "we live in the real world, not a virtual one."

Weak Obama risks global wars

Hanson 9 – Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University [Dr. Victor Davis Hanson, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, 2009 http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson121609.html)

BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness … back of the tiger and now no one quite knows whom it will bite or when.

There are multiple scenarios

Peters 8 – Former Foreign Area Officer, in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence. [Ralph Peters (Retired United States Army Lieutenant Colonel. Currently is a reporter who fouses on politics in troubled countries), “AMERICA THE WEAK: US RISKS TURMOIL UNDER PREZ O,” Last Updated: 4:51 AM, New York Post, October 20, 2008, pg. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_GS5vnNwCO6UjfBPf3uobyM.]

IF Sen. Barack Obama is elected president, our re public will survive, but our international … of Central and Eastern Europe will be gravely discouraged, while the appeasers in Western Europe will again have the upper hand. Putin will be allowed to do what he wants.

Weakening Pakistani government causes full collapse—the risk is high

Pauly 10

(Reid, Ploughshares Fund, 10/13/2010 Understanding Pakistan, http://www.ploughshares.org/news-analysis/news/understanding-pakistan)

Whether you are concerned with success in Afghanistan, … the full recognition that our success in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to our partnership with Pakistan.”

Most likely cause of nuclear terrorism

Zaidi 10
 (Syed Manzar Abbas, lecturer in Policing and Criminal Investigation at the University of Central. Lancashire, U.K, Negotiations and the Anti-Taliban Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, Asian Politics & Policy, Colume 2, Issue 2, April/June)

The Taliban insurgency in Pakistan has caused escalating … target al-Qaeda and Taliban in the Pakistani tribal theater.

--Extinction

Rhodes, ‘9 [Richard, affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Former visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, and author of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” which won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, National Book Award, and National Book Critics Circle Award. “Reducing the nuclear threat: The argument for public safety”, 12-14, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/reducing-the-nuclear-threat-the-argument-public-safety]

The response was very different among nuclear and national … do with those attacks in the name of sending a message.

Independently—unstable Pakistan causes nuclear war

Kagan 7
 (Frederick W. Kagan is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Pakistan’s Collapse, Our Problem,” NYT 11-18, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/18kagan.html.)

AS the government of Pakistan totters, we must … may be the next big test.

North Korea conflict triggers nuclear and biological war
Sossel ‘5 – Atlantic senior editor
 [Scott, “North Korea: The War Game”, July/August, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200507/stossel]
The North Korean situation is also ripe for war-game …  to a weapons-of-mass-destruction yard sale for smugglers.  

Resolute action in Syria is the key internal link. Lack of action undermines global credibility.

Singh 8-16
 [Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council., The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1697]

When the story of the Arab Spring is written in Arabic, it …, while on the other suggesting to foes in Syria and the region that Washington despite its rhetoric will once again need to deal with him.

US military leadership is inevitable – but credibility is key to solve transnational problems – terrorism, cybersecurity, disease, climate, war

Nye 11
 (Joseph S. Nye Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, God of Soft Power “The Future of Power”, 2011, CMR)
 Today, power in the world is distributed in a … broader narrative are the purposes of this book. [xvi-xvii]

--Cyber-conflict outweighs nuclear war

Rothkopf 11 – visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and President and CEO of Garten Rothkopf

[David, “Where Fukushima meets Stuxnet: The growing threat of cyber war”, 3-17, ] CMR

The Japanese nuclear crisis, though still unfolding, may, in a way, already be yesterday's news. …. than having been obscured by this week's news it should only have been amplified by it.

Pandemics cause extinction

Yu ‘9 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate]

In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. ….into a human-viable strain (10).

--C02 emissions cause extinction

Kristof 6

[NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, American journalist, author, op-ed columnist, and a winner of two Pulitzer Prizes, “Scandal Below the Surface”, Oct 31, 2006, http://select.nytimes.com/2006/10/31/opinion/31kristof.html?_r=1]

If you think of the earth’s surface as a great beaker, then it’s filled mostly with … fallen by more than half, after inflation, since 1979.

Only the plan can restore credibility- Obama needs to take the lead

Gordon 8-20-11 J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB

With Syria, Mr. Obama … military arsenals.

That causes nuke war --- now is key for Obama to show leadership

Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

The disease of a... simply not an option.

Solvency (UNLV)

Direct engagement with the opposition compresses the timeline and prevents a power vacuum.

Doran & Shaikh, 8-2 – senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution &  director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy

[Michael & Salman, Getting Serious in Syria, American Interest Online, August 2, 2011,  ]

The Syrian status quo, whatever is left of it, … process of transition to begin.

US support for national dialog prevents sectarian conflict and crowds out regional competitors.

Al-Assad, 8-10 - Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria

[Ribal, The struggle for Syria, Global Public Square, August 10, 2011, ]

CAIRO – As the violence in Syria mounts, the international community’s … would be a force for stability throughout the region.

Broad based support builds counterweight to Islamist groups. 

London, 8-15 - President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University

[Herbert, U.S. Betrays Syria's Opposition, Hudson Institute, August 15, 2011, ]

After the bloodshed made international headlines, the White House … invariably opposes this political view.

Lack of US support signals the opposition that we don’t care and makes civil war inevitable – inaction is a bigger risk than the kiss of death.

Shaikh, 10-12

[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, ]

The longer the current situation lasts, the more … not serious about supporting the protests and preparing for a post-Assad Syria.

US’s refusal to create a Syria policy will LOCK it out of influencing the direction of Syria’s future ceding allowing Iran to either deter support or force regional allies to press ahead with armed resistance. 

Badran, 10-6

[Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Obama abandoning interest in Syria, Now Lebanon, 10-6-2011, ]

With the Syrian revolution on the verge of formally calling for intervention …, that is simply not an option.

Calls to step down are rhetorical unless the US assists the larger opposition movements within Syria.

McCarthy, 8-18 - former federal prosecutor and a Contributing Editor with National Review Online

[Andrew, Annals of the Arab Spring: Obama Administration Backs Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, National Review, August 18, 2011, ]

Before running off on his latest vacation, at the conclusion of his three-day, … the real reformers, she’s in for more embarrassment — and we are in for worse.

US support for democratic reform is CRITICAL to successful transition.

Badran, 9-22

[Tony, Research Fellow  Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Axis of Abuse:

U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II, Congressional Testimony, 9-22-2011, ]

We have reached a potentially dangerous moment … devolve into a regional  proxy war – increases, there is a need for a review of the administration’s Syria policy.

Direct US support to broaden the current coalition is key to preventing violence – arguments that the US should sit it out ignore the increasing risk of civil war.

Shaikh, 10-12

[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, ]

The United States should also recognize the Syrian … will descend into chaos.

Support for secular groups key to gain support of military and business elites and prevent violent collapse of the Assad regime.

Yacoubian, 10-5

[Mona, senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Saving Syria from civil war, FP, 10-5-2011, ]

As Syria's uprising lurches toward its seventh …rejuvenating the opposition without spurring further violence.

--US withdrawl from Iraq means Iranian meddling is imminent—only US led-assistance for the opposition can check their influence

Leighton 10/24 [Col. Cedric Leighton, U.S.A.F. (retired), “Beyond Qaddafi: Our Middle East Mission Is Not Over Yet”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/col-cedric-leighton/qaddafi-dead_b_1029103.html, CMR]

As jubilant crowds gather in Tripoli and Benghazi to celebrate the demise of …re-kindle the fires of freedom we so carelessly extinguished in 2009.

--Iranian meddling causes civil breakdown and instability

AP 10-24 [“Iraq warns of meddling after U.S. pullout”, http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/10/24/20111024iraq-meddling-warning.html#ixzz1bkwPwCwS, CMR]

"Iraq now suffers from points of weakness… and disputes across the Mideast.

--Iraq instability causes global nuclear war

Corsi, 7 Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard & Staff Reporter for World Net Daily, 1-8 (Jerome, "War with Iran is Imminent, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq, Olmert will … lead into a third world war, much as World Wars I and II began.

--Collapse of Iraq due to Iranian meddling signals diminished leadership 

Pletka 10-19 [Danielle Pletka is vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI. Stuart Gottlieb is a former Senate foreign policy adviser and speechwriter and teaches US foreign policy and national security at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, http://www.aei.org/article/104308, CMR]

That brings us back to Iraq. While steady security and … as another step toward relinquishing U.S. global leadership. And that, it appears, is Barack Obama's goal.

--That collapses global hegemony

Kazemi ‘6 [Ali-Asghar Kazemi, Professor, International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, “A Worse Case Scenario,” March16, 2006. www.bitterlemons-international.org/previous.php?opt=1&id=124]

While the likelihood of an uncontained civil war in Iraq does not … the world who push for a quick withdrawal of American troops from Iraq are evidently not conscious of these and other catastrophic ramifications.

Collapse of US leadership causes global instability and major war --- no viable replacement

Knowles 9

(Robert, Assistant Professor – New York University School of Law, 2009 “American hegemony and the foreign affairs constitution” Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 41 Lexis )

First, the "hybrid" hegemonic model assumes that … formerly produced; as the largest consumer, it would suffer the most.

These conflicts go nuclear-leadership diffuses them

Kagan 7

(Robert, Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund, “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review, August & September 2007, pg. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html)

The jostling for status and influence among …, or it could simply make them more catastrophic.

--Iranian meddling disrupts oil supplies

Seale 10/21 [Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs, Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire, “Plot to destabilise Middle East?”, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/plot-to-destabilise-middle-east-1.910979, CMR]

A US-Iranian war would have potentially … the current economic crisis.

--Collapses the global economy

Clayson ‘6 [Stephen, “Civil War in Iraq Set to Send Oil Prices Into Orbit?”, 3-6, http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2006/3/Pages/Civil-War-in-Iraq-Set-to-Send-Oil-Prices-Into.aspx, CMR]

As Iraq seemingly teeters on the brink of civil war, … of trepidation, and hence it would be better if the adverse set of circumstances envisaged herein did not transpire.

--Extinction

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? … that coalesce into a big bang.

Iranian meddling makes Iraq sparks a wave of Iraqi terrorism

McCarthy 8/16

(Andrew C., former Assistant United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York. A Republican, he is most notable for leading the 1995 terrorism prosecution against Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman and eleven others., Iraq Backs Syria…at Irans Urging, 2011, http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/274790/iraq-backs-syria-irans-urging-andrew-c-mccarthy#)

The Bush administration repeatedly stated that our benchmark … and that means Iraq is no ally of the United States. But I think we already knew that.

That’s the biggest environmental threat. Collapses sustainability and freshwater.

Damkhi 10

(Ali Mohamed Al-Damkhi, Associate Professor of Environmental Sciences at  (PAAET). Rana Abdullah Al-Fares is an Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering at the College of Engineering & Petroluem, Kuwait University, “Terriorist Threats to The Enviroment in Iraq and Beyond”, Volume 10, Number 1, February 2010, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/global_environmental_politics/v010/10.1.al-damkhi.html)

The Danger of Environmental Terrorism in Iraq  … broader efforts toward social development, justice, and education. This final section outlines some initial directions and examples for consideration. 

This is the most important biological hotspot. Disruptions go global

Gardner 3

(Vice Dean and Professor of Law, Stetson University College of Law, Gulfport, Florida. The author is the Vice Chair of the U.S. National Ramsar Committee and was a member of the United States Delegation to the Eighth Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties to the Ramsar Convention, “Perspectives on Wetlands and Biodiversity: International Law, Iraqi Marshlands, and Incentives for Restoration,” Colorado Journal of International Environmental Law and Policy, pg nexis)

The Mesopotamian Marshlands are primarily … [he] could to restore what Saddam destroyed." n99 A local sheik described the renewed marsh as a "gift from God." n100

Multiple scenarios for extinction

Takacs 96

(Environmental Humanities Prof @ CSU Monteray Bay, 1996 (David, “The Idea of Biodiversity: Philosophies of Paradise” pg. 200-201)

So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and … appears that civili¬zation will disappear some time before the end of the next century - not with a bang but a whimper.14 

It’s also unique—the plan’s revitalization of credibility spurs action to prevent warming

Hague, 10 – British Foreign Secretary and Secretary of State (William, 9/27/10, “The Diplomacy of Climate Change”, )

But I particularly wanted to make the point to this audience and to circulate to a …the world will determine our destiny for us.

Warming will hit developing and indefensible countries the hardest—lack of geography, poor infrastructure and heavy dependence on agriculture ensures inaction will magnify all their “injustice” arguments and kill millions in the name of justice for the few

Stern, 07- Nicholas, Head of the British Government Economic Service 2007 (Former Head Economist for the World Bank, I.G. Patel Chair at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, The report of a team commissioned by the British Government to study the economics of climate change led by Siobhan Peters, Head of G8 and International Climate Change Policy Unit, Cambridge University Press, p. 94-99)

Exposure: The geography of many … for diseases spread by vectors or caused by poor nutrition are examples of public services that would help to manage and cope with the effects of climate change but receive weak support and attention in developing countries

Science proves—the earth will explode

Chalko, 04, Ph. D. and Professor of Geophysics at Mt. Best, 10/30/2004 (Thomas, http://nujournal.net/core.pdf)

Abstract: The heat generated inside our planet is … to comprehend the danger before the situation becomes irreversible?

Warming kills 160,000 a year

Ward, 08, Professor of Geological Sciences at University of Washington, 2008 (Peter, “Under a Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Tell Us About Our Future”, p. 186)

THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT HUMAN … most vulnerable. These numbers could almost double by the year 2020.

Next is the defense of our methodology—

Consensus there is rapid human induced warming now—numerous and best studies prove

Rahmstorf, 8, Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, 2008 (Richard, Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto, ed. Ernesto Zedillo, Chapter 3, “Anthropogenic Climate Change?” p. 42-49) 

It is time to turn to statement B: human activities are altering the climate. This can be broken into two parts. The first is as follows: global climate is warming. … warming is a reality with which we need to deal.

Peer reviewed studies prove our impacts truth claims

Davies, 08, Author and Geophysicist at the Australian National University, 6/11/2008 (Dr. Geoff, Science Alert, “Why listen to scientists?”, http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20081106-17474.html)

Professor Don Aitkin’s recent … ago are being broadly vindicated.

Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinburg? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago, and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

Middle Easterners are not in control of their own destiny- Russia will intervene to stop the spread of democracy.  Only western intervention can counter Russia influence and prevent the mid-east from slipping into war and dictatorship

Nyquist 11

(J.R.  Analyst and commentator on Russia’s geopolitical security and economic posturing, 9/11 and the Arab Spring, [10/8/11])

After the tenth anniversary of 9/11 we find a … or another round of despotism.

Critical theory is at the core of the Marxist strategy to divide and disillusion American youth- the space of the debate is a key site to resist this knowledge production in order to avert Soviet domination

Rogue 11

(This author is a political analyst and opinion-editorialist, with articles published at AmericanThinker. He holds a Master’s degree in Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies and is a PhD. student in Political Science, with specializations in International Relations and Comparative Politics. He speaks fluent Russian and worked in Moscow as a copy editor for the economic news agency Prime-Tass (prime-tass.com) and was International Programs Manager for Russia’s first liberal arts college [10/8/11])

Disappointment and disillusion among the … It is crucial that we do not join them.

It is impossible without rigorous discussion and education about Soviet totalitarian communism and geopolitics to combat the imperial expansionism of Putin’s Russia.  Failure to counter-act Putin will lead to the annihilation of America through biological and nuclear war.  The Russians are biologically hard wired to attack and already have a plan in place

Nyquist 2k5

(J.R.  4/29 Analyst and commentator on Russia’s geopolitical security and economic posturing, “Eternal Recurrence,” Financial Sense, http://www.financialsensearchive.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2005/0429.html [10/8/11])

I have warned my readers, again and again, about Russia. … likes it or not, this very fact leads us to a new Cold War.

The resurrection of the Soviet empire ensures mass slavery, genocide and the destruction of the value to life turning the aff/alt
 Kimball, 2k3

(Roger, 6/1 Writer for the New Criterion. “Malcolm Muggeridge’s Journey” [10/8/11]

Muggeridge’s great gift as a political commentator was a nose for spurious … Brown terror is worse than the Red Terror. They’re both horrible.”

--Iran-Saudi war collapses Saudi Arabia’s economy and draws in outside powers

Charney, intern at Foreign Policy in Focus, 10-16 [Scott, “What War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia Might Look Like”, , CMR]

Suspicion continues to swirl over the bizarre plot, allegedly by agents of the … even contest, one in which interested third parties might want to play a decisive role.

--Saudi Arabia collapse immediately tanks the global economy – key to market stability

Stewart 11 (Heather, Economics Editor for The Guardian "Still-fragile world economy braced for effects of another oil shock" February 27, 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/27/world-economy-braced-for-oil-shock)

In the west, meanwhile, where consumers and governments are still working off … much more bad news to turn it into a blowout.

Global war—strong statistical support proves—their defense doesn’t account for global crises

1) power transition 2) interdependence 3) internal instability 4) diversion

Royal 10 [Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,? in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of … be considered ancillary to those views.

Plan: The United States federal government should provide political organization assistance for Syrian Opposition groups.

Saudi Arabia ADV

ADVANTAGE ONE: PROXY-WAR

Saudi Arabia is filling the void in Syria, sparking sectarian conflict and risking full scale civil war in a bid to confront Iran.

Mainen, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 7-25 

[Mathew, Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria, Mainen Middle East Analysis, July 25, 2011, ]

While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing … will do the most to contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

--Inaction by the U.S. is driving militarization – puts Syria on the brink of full collapse that draws in Iran

WSJ 10/19

(Wall Street Journal, Nour Malas, “Violence Sharpens Syrian Conflict”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203658804576639081942444162.html)

The uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, … stability in neighboring Iraq and Lebanon. 

Lack of US leadership in Syria cedes hegemony to Saudi Arabia.

Queenann, 8-14

[Gavriel, Analysis: Syria and the 'Saudi Dawn', Israeli National News, 8-14-2011, ]

As the Obama Administration appears reticent and issues … to take decisive action has given rise to what is being called “the Saudi Dawn.”

Saudi led assistance guarantees Islamist government in Syria – broader support for democratic opposition is key to prevent escalation.

Ghadry, 8-23 - a member of the Committee on the Present Danger

[Farid, Saudi Arabia: Keep Your Hands Off Syria, 8-23-2011, http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=53920&msgnum=442105&batchsize=10&batchtype=Next]

On August 18, after six months of the Assad regime slaughtering its people, … may well face far greater tragedies.

Saudi Arabia has to balance pressure against Assad – too much pressure risk internal backlash and friction with the US.

Saab, 8-31 - visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies

[Bilal, How Saudi Arabia Can Contain Iran -- and Other Benefits From Syria's Turmoil, Assyrian International News Agency, 8-31-2011, ]

But turning a blind eye to Syria's mischief and connection to Iran is now all over.  Abdullah's recent statement suggests that Saudi Arabia is no longer viewing its relations with Syria in the same light. The House of Saud has finally decided instead to take … then Tehran would rejoice.

--The impact—civil war engulfs the entire region in conflict—US must take steps to organize the opposition

Safty, Distinguished Professor at the Siberian Academy of Public Administration, 10-10-11

[Adel, “Civil war in Syria could ignite regional ethnic conflicts”, , CMR]

The international community has rightly condemned the brutality of the Syrian … has decided that Al Assad must go. But it is not clear what plans there are, if any, for the post-Al Assad Syria.

Iran-Saudi war goes nuclear, collapses the global economy and guarantees US intervention.

Jain, visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, 11

[Ash, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, ]

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to intimidate  and subvert … could be complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

AND, Iran – Saudi Proxy war leads to chemical weapons use.

Spector, Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, 8-23

[Leonard, Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, ]

Let's start with the possibility of civil war. … able to maintain strict security measures at the chemical sites.

That causes Israeli retaliation

Lindsey, 7

[Hal, “The Sampson Option” World Net Daily, July 14, 2007, ]

 Syria recently test-fired two Scud-D surface-to-surface missiles that have a range of about 250 miles. This puts virtually all of Israel's population centers within range. Analysts say the … nuking the Middle East.

Extinction

Hoffman 6

[Staffwriter, “'Nuclear winter' looms, experts say,” Inside Bay Area (California]

Researchers at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting warned …. The hundreds of millions who would starve exceeded those who would die in the initial blasts and radiation.  

The plan solves. US must take a leadership role to pressure other nations to isolate Syria – the alternative is Arab led sectarian conflict.

Young, 8-1

[Michael, Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West, The Daily Beast, August 1, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html]

Throughout, the White House has painstakingly avoided demanding that …  well been addressing the far larger community of nations.

Credibility ADV

Obama is failing to lead on the Arab Spring ensuring weakness and collapse of foreign policy—Syria is the key test

Pletka, Vice President at the American Enterprise Institute, and Gottlieb, Professor @ Columbia, 10-19

[Danielle Pletka is Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, AND Stuart, former Senate foreign policy adviser and speechwriter (1999-2003), and teaches U.S. foreign policy and national security at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, “Shrinking America's Role In the World Is the True Obama Doctrine”, , CMR]

After months of mixed messages, President Barack Obama has chosen to … understands hard power -- can as easily be seen as an antiseptic remote control alternative to actual American leadership.

Resolute action in Syria is the key internal link. Lack of action undermines global credibility.

Singh, director of the Washington Institute, 8-16
[Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council., The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria, 2011, ]

When the story of the Arab Spring is written in Arabic, it … despite its rhetoric will once again need to deal with him.

Only the plan can restore credibility—Obama needs to take the lead supporting the opposition

Gordon, foreign policy consultant and former Pentagon spokesman, 8-20

[J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB]

With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called for strongman … our reputation as a world leader and encourages rogue regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

Weak foreign policy leads to aggression from adversaries

Bolton 9 - Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute [John R. Bolton (Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) “The danger of Obama's dithering,” Los Angeles Times, October 18, 2009, pg. http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18]

Weakness in American foreign policy in one region often … meeting that "we live in the real world, not a virtual one."

Weak Obama risks global wars—Russia, China, Indo-Pak, North Korea

Hanson 9 – Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University [Dr. Victor Davis Hanson, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, 2009 http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson121609.html)

BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness … quite knows whom it will bite or when.

There are multiple scenarios

Peters 8 – Former Foreign Area Officer, in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence. [Ralph Peters (Retired United States Army Lieutenant Colonel. Currently is a reporter who fouses on politics in troubled countries), “AMERICA THE WEAK: US RISKS TURMOIL UNDER PREZ O,” Last Updated: 4:51 AM, New York Post, October 20, 2008, pg. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_GS5vnNwCO6UjfBPf3uobyM.]

IF Sen. Barack Obama is elected president, our re public will survive, but our … and Eastern Europe will be gravely discouraged, while the appeasers in Western Europe will again have the upper hand. Putin will be allowed to do what he wants.

--Impact to North Korea is extinction 

Hayes, 10 [Peter & Michael Hamel-Green, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy, the Western partner of the Council on Foreign Relations; and the US Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia” Nautilus, Special Report, 10-001: January 5^th, 2010, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf] 

The international community is increasingly aware that cooperative … nuclear exports, but it is by no means clear how air-transported materials could similarly be intercepted.

Pakistan collapse causes pre-emptive nuclear conflict in South Asia

Rick ‘1 [Thomas Ricks is the author of Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2003-05, which was a no. 1 New York Times bestseller and a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in 2007. He is special military correspondent for The Washington Post, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a contributing editor for Foreign Policy magazine. Washington Post – October 21, 2001 – http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A27875-2001Oct20?language=printer]

The prospect of Pakistan being … Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner, an expert on strategic games. 

--Russia expansionism causes nuclear war

Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then … of their own, and perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172

US military leadership is inevitable – but credibility is key to solve transnational problems – terrorism, cybersecurity, disease, climate, war

Nye 11
 (Joseph S. Nye Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, God of Soft Power “The Future of Power”, 2011, CMR)
 Today, power in the world is distributed in a … broader narrative are the purposes of this book. [xvi-xvii]

Cyber-conflict outweighs nuclear war

Rothkopf 11 – visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and President and CEO of Garten Rothkopf

[David, “Where Fukushima meets Stuxnet: The growing threat of cyber war”, 3-17, ] CMR

The Japanese nuclear crisis, though still unfolding, may, in a way, already be yesterday's news. …. than having been obscured by this week's news it should only have been amplified by it.

Pandemics cause extinction

Yu ‘9 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, ]

In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. ….into a human-viable strain (10).

C02 emissions cause extinction

Kristof 6

[NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, American journalist, author, op-ed columnist, and a winner of two Pulitzer Prizes, “Scandal Below the Surface”, Oct 31, 2006, ]

If you think of the earth’s surface as a great beaker, then it’s filled mostly with … fallen by more than half, after inflation, since 1979.

US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda

Zarate and Gordon 11 [Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009), David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Summer, The Washington Quarterly, CMR]

If inadequate reform leads to disillusionment, … the organic movements in the region.

Nuclear terror inevitable now

Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment May 11

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf

ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.”

The expert community distinguishes pathways … not if, but when, where, and on what scale the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.

Extinction

Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a … preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

US action key to undermine al-Qaeda’s narrative, despite short-term backlash

Zarate and Gordon 11 [Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009), David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Summer, The Washington Quarterly, CMR]

Though the United States needs to be careful not to be the central … and its ideology. Combined with the killing of bin Laden, this could mark the beginning of the end of the long war.

Turkey 1AC

US has outsourced it’s Syria policy to Turkey exposing the limits of Ankara’s control – only US leadership now can prevent conflicts and realign regional policies.

Badran, 11

[Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Turkey’s foreign policy shift, Now Lebanon, 9-8-2011, ]

If there’s been - for regional stability.”

Lack of US leadership in Syria forces Turkey to take a hardline position to counter Iran.

Kabalan, 12-9

[Marwan, dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy, Kalamoon University, Turkey's bid to restore balance, Gulf News, 12-9-2011, ]

As the US - of this shift.

Scenario 1 is the Muslim Brotherhood -     

FIRST - Turkey is working to install the MB in Syria. 

Weiss, 9-15

[Michael, communications director of The Henry Jackson Society, Turkey's Neo-Ottoman Foreign Policy, Radio Free Europe, 9-15-2011, ]

The Israelis and - invitation to Syria."

Unchecked US and Turkish support for the Brotherhood will sweep away any hope of reformers or moderates.

IPT, 6-8

[Big Peace, Syria: Assad Will Fall; But Will The Muslim Brotherhood Follow?, 6-8-2011, ]

Ghadry, a Muslim, -Western, democratic world.

Collapses any hope of peace with Israel.

Helal, 11

[Feras Abu, former associate researcher for Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultation, THE ISRAELI POSITION TOWARDS THE SYRIAN INTIFADA, 11-5-2011, http://english.dohainstitute.org/Home/Details/5ea4b31b-155d-4a9f-8f4d-a5b428135cd5/284e36f8-7bd1-4d84-89a6-a1e9ee1b835a]

Fear that the -Syrian-Israeli peace.[24]

Conflict goes nuclear draws in Europe and Russia guaranteeing full scale nuclear conflict.

Moore, 7 – BA, political science from Wayne State

[Carol, U.S. AND ISRAELI THREATS AND PLANS  TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, Carolmoore.net, November 2007, http://carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/]

Israel is especially - movement can stop it.

Scenario 2 – Hormuz

US credibility prevents Turkish meddling and checks destabilization. 

Hudson, 9-1 - associate professor of Anthropology and History in the School of Middle Eastern and North African Studies and director of the Southwest Initiative for the Study of Middle East Conflicts (SISMEC) at the University of Arizona

[Leila, The Arab Spring: Anatomy of a tipping point, Aljazeera, 9-1-2011, ]

While the US -century Arab revolutions.

Any intervention by Turkey collapses regional stability and is the flashpoint for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Gilbert, 1-15

[Joseph, retired US Army Military Intelligence officer with tours in Germany and Korea and three combat tours in Iraq, Did Obama give Turkey the green light to intervene in Syria?, Examiner, 1-15-2012, ]

President Obama and -be the flashpoint.

Solvency –

The US stance on Syria vis-a-vis Turkey is the key internal link – supporting the opposition leads to rapprochement and peace with Israel.

Ottolenghi, 9-1

[Emanuelle, Analysis: Much to fear, much to hope with Arab Spring, The Jewish Chronicle Online, 9-1-2011, ]

There is, however, - much to hope.

Turkey rise can only come with US support – any unilateral or uncoordinated Syria policies will collapse the rise and risk regional alienation.

Golverdi, 9-19

[Issa, Syria: Convergence of US, Turkey Regional Interests, Payvand Iran News, 9-19-2011, ]

Meanwhile, despite historical -as a regional power.

Only the US can rally the needed support to coordinate Turkey’s Syria policy and prevent Gulf nations from intervening – unilateral Turkish action will enflame Iran and incite a Kurdish revolution.

Taheri, 8-26

[Amir, author of 11 books on the Middle East, Iran and Islam. He has been a syndicated columnist for American, British, and Middle Eastern publications since the 1980s, Syria: Turkey v. Iran, New York Post, 8-26-2011, ]

Now in its sixth month, - benefit -- and how. 

Only US leadership reigns in Turkey.

Badran, 8-16 - research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

[Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Foreign Affairs, August 16, 2011, ]

Since then, the - United States' alone.

Focus on internal opposition is key -

Chenoweth 12-11

Erica, 13 ways to support the syrian opposition right now, rational insurgent, 12-10-11

Support forums for civil resistance ... Very helpful down the road

US must reach out to secular community

Mauro, 9-27 helping Islamists take Syria, frontpage, 9-27-11

Shockingly, the u.s…. To the muslim bro’s

Broad based support builds counterweighs to islamists groups

London, 8-15. Herbert, U.S. Betrays syria’s opposition, Hudson institute, aug 15

After the bloodshed…Opposes this political view.

Support for secular groups key- prevents violent assad collapse

Yacoubian, 10-5 [Mona, saving Syria from civil war, fp, 10-5-11

As Syria’s uprising lurches toward…Spurring further violence

US targeting aid to Islamist groups in Syria isolate minority groups and further empowers radicals

Rubin 10-22 [Barry, Scoop:Obama administration does it again!  Empowers largely islamist leadership for Syrian revolution, rubin reports

The leadership of the Syrian….Are of a different comp

Establishing diplo boots on the ground vital to us influence key to iran and cbw’s

Silverman 12-7 [Michael, Laissez-faire approach in Libya may not work at all in Syria, CSM, 12-7-11]

Syria is a different story…. Opportunity in Syria

SNC has become the sole voice of the Syrian opposition – unfortunately this ignores increasing tensions between the internal opposition which reject military intervention to overthrow Assad.

Maalouf & Torbey , 12-15

[Marwan & Khattar, a human rights  lawyer focusing on the rule of law and  political reforms in the Middle East and  North African & s an international  lawyer and PhD candidate in  Regional Integration in the Middle East  at Kansas University,  Breaking the Stalemate in Syri, POMED Policy Brief, 12-16-2011, ]

Since its official establishment in September, …  now exposed to reputational liability for any future FSA military actions.

However, collapse of the unity agreement signals that the pro-intervention SNC is gaining the upper hand – SNC is on a bid to become the SOLE representation of the resistance.

Karouny, 1-10

[Mariam, Syria opposition split raises calls for foreign intervention, 1-10-2012, MoneyControl.com, ]

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The collapse of a deal between … to get recognition as the only opposition group representing the mass demonstrations. 

SNC and FAS are coordinating a council as a front for military action.

Spencer, 1-15

[Richard, Syria: growing Arab calls for military intervention as Assad announces amnesty, Telegraph, 1-15-2012, ]

Brigadier-General Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh, the most senior of his … position where it has to take action or lose whatever credibility it has on the world stage.

Intervention locks the military in on the regimes side – a non-violent consensus is key to successful defections.

Achcar, 11

[Gilbert, teaches political science at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, Militarization, military intervention and the absence of strategy, International Viewpoint, 11-18-2011, ]

Direct military intervention in Syria, would convince the … momentum is itself a decisive factor in inciting the soldiers to rebel against the regime.

The position of the opposition is KEY – the current restraint could end tomorrow if the calls for intervention increase.

Achcar, 11

[Gilbert, teaches political science at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, Militarization, military intervention and the absence of strategy, International Viewpoint, 11-18-2011, ]

I began my talk by stressing that the Syrian opposition must define a … have been sanctioned by the UN.

SNC primacy guarantees the movement takes a pro-interventionist stance.

Weiss, 1-10

[Michael, Director of Communications and Acting Research Director at the Henry Jackson Society, What will it take to intervene in Syria?, CNN World, 1-10-2012, ]

Without question, this is the dense thicket Juppe, Pillay, and Washington will have to navigate if they choose to protect the Syrian people and hasten the end of the Assad regime. Nevertheless, there are signs of progress. Now that the SNC has endorsed … ambivalent Arab governments. 

Arab League is meeting this weekend to consider intervention – they’ll forstall force for now but a dead end leave them no choice but to reconsider.

Washington Post, 1-17

[Syria’s carnage puts Arab leaders on horns of dilemma, 1-17-2012, ]

HERE’S ONE MEASURE of how much the … the bloodshed goes on should not be one of the options.

And, Turkey is weighing intervention.

Pfeffer, 11-24

[Anshel, Israeli Security Forces: Turkey Nearing Military Intervention in Syria to Create Secure Buffer Zone for Activists, ]

By Anshel Pfeffer – “Israeli security forces officials said Wednesday that … the first time the possibility of foreign intervention in Syria.”

Legal and political arguments in support of intervention guarantees that international opposition can be overcome.

Fehmy 9-28

[Fehmy, served as advisor to governments, corporations and international development insitutions - including the World Bank Group and Islamic Development Bank. He served as a diplomat in the Syrian Foreign Service and then pursued a career in academia, teaching at the American University of Washington, Beirut and Kuwait. He holds LLB and LLM degrees in International Law as well as a PhD in International Studies, Al Jazeera, 9-28-2011, ]

If the Assad regime continues to be in a state of denial, the … has already expressed itself on this matter. Of course, Israel will not stand by and accept a drastic shift in the regional power structure.

Military intervention sparks a full scale proxy war and conflict with Israel.

Weiss, 1-10

[Michael, Director of Communications and Acting Research Director at the Henry Jackson Society, What will it take to intervene in Syria?, CNN World, 1-10-2012, ]

The gravest challenge to intervening forces would come not from Assad’s conventional defenses but from groups allied to the regime, such as Hezbollah, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and Iraqi pro-Iranian forces and Iran’s … his country, and he might launch rockets at Israel should he feel further besieged.

Military intervention leads to violent regional spillover and ethnic cleansing – it’s reverse causal the scale of violence is proportional to the perceived degree of intervention.

Cordesman, 12-13

[Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, INSTABILITY IN SYRIA:

Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention, Working Draft, CSIS, 12-13-2011, ]

With growing external pressure on Syria, the Asad regime is likely to purse …  acrimony could inform how Iraq reacts to further instability in Syria. 

Plan is key to a soft landing – alternative is civil war.

Serwer, 12-22

[Daniel, lecturer at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Scholar at the Middle East Institute, 5 Ways the U.S. Can Help in Syria, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/5-ways-the-us-can-help-in-syria/250390/]

Former Middle East advisor to the Obama administration Dennis … democratic and unified Syria will be sharply reduced.

US support for SNC crows out any hope of a democratic alternative – only choice is between Assad and radical Islam.

Toameh, 11-4

[Khaled Abu, Syria's Choice: Murderous Secular Regime or Islamic Fundamentalists, Hudson Institute, 11-4-11, ]

As Syrian dictator Bashar Assad continues to slaughter his people, … as a catalyst for the Muslim Brotherhood to double its efforts to replace the Assad regime.

A2: Lashout

Supporting the opposition ends Iranian hegemony peacefully.

Alhomayed, 6/24
 [Tariq, editor in chief of Asharq Al Awsat, London, “Curbing Iranian influence without conflict,” 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/06/24/154651.html]
 Thus we could assume today, with the political earthquake …, exploit this opportunity? That is the question

Plan solves Iranian prolif-

May 11-21 [“The Impending Linkup of Syria and Iran”, , CMR]

President Barack Obama has done nothing to … though. If five of the missiles were armed with nuclear warheads, only one or two would need to get through to deliver a devastating blow to Israel.

--sanctions fail

Kahlili 10-27 [Reza, a pseudonym for a former CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,”, “KAHLILI: Iran already has nuclear weapons”, , CMR]

The pressure the United States and the West … the EMP Commission, and is now president of EMPact America.

Iran prolif inevitable

Kori Schake May 11, 2007 “Dealing with a Nuclear Iran” POLICY REVIEW

http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=28262

Lost in the debate about how to prevent … why they’re so intent on detection.

Unemployment 2AC

--WONT PASS

Unemployment and PTC = same fight and negotiations– it’ll fail due to offsets, GOP intransigence and Democrats arrogance

Washington Post, 1-18-12 – “Congress revisiting payroll tax cut, jobless benefits as round 2 of bruising battle begins,” .

Q: Can you remind me what’s at stake? A: After a bitter clash and just a week … and reduce the risk of another economic downturn that could hurt their election prospects.

No chance it fails and Obama isn’t key

Wong, 1-16-12 – Scott, “Payroll tax cut deal may come faster than expected,” POLITICO,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html#ixzz1jq82XPkF

The one-year payroll tax deal that eluded Congress last month … debate during a political year.”

a. FAA comes 1^st 

Goldman, 1-18-12 – “Congress Reconvenes With Transportation Deadlines Fast Approaching,” DC Streets Blog, .

Aviation policy isn’t usually something that gets mentioned on Streetsblog. It isn’t included in the federal surface transportation authorization bill (for obvious reasons) and airplanes only rarely wind up having to share our streets. However, the FAA authorization law ran out over 4 … an annual one — likely makes a retroactive extension problematic to the point of being unworkable.

b. Triggers the link

POLITICO, 1-16-11 – “Transportation bills abound as Congress returns,” .

The House returns Tuesday to a mountain of unresolved …  for leaders after 30 extensions over more than 2,400 days for the two laws.

AND—Solyndra will drain Obama’s capital – we control momentum

The Hill, 1-13 – Andrew Restuccia, E2 Wire, The Hill’s Energy and Environment Blog, .

House Republicans have signaled the Solyndra …  for additional Solyndra documents. The White House provided about 135 pages of documents in response to the committee’s subpoena. Republicans have called the response inadequate.

Keystone

Koss 1-19 (Geof, "For Obama, No Escape From Pipeline Rejection," CQ Today, public.cq.com/docs/news/news-000004013280.html)

For Obama, No Escape From …, timed to coincide with Obama’s Thursday visit to Florida and running on an Orlando website and elsewhere.

Iran signing statement

Broder 1-14 (Jonathan, "Tightening the Screws On Iran — and Obama," CQ Weekly, 1-14-12, public.cq.com/docs/weeklyreport/weeklyreport-000004011280.html)

Another Middle East war is the last thing Obama wants right now. … Rep. Ron Paul and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, every GOP presidential contender has threatened to bomb Iran if it develops a nuclear weapon.

--No spillover

Dickinson 9  (Matthew, previously taught at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D, professor of political science at Middlebury College, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation goes as follows: the … presidential power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

--Winners win- plan is key to Obama political power

Creamer 1-2, political organizer and strategist for four decades (Robert, he and his firm, Democracy Partners, work with many of the country’s most significant issue campaigns, one of the major architects and organizers of the successful campaign to defeat the privatization of Social Security, he has been a consultant to the campaigns to end the war in Iraq, pass universal health care, pass Wall Street reform, change America’s budget priorities and enact comprehensive immigration reform, he has also worked on hundreds of electoral campaigns at the local, state and national level, "Why GOP Collapse on the Payroll Tax Could be a Turning Point Moment," www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-gop-collapse-on-the-p_b_1167491.html, CMR)

Strength and victory are enormous … them on the run - that's the time to chase them.

--No economic collapse—their author says it would affect growth “.02” percent

--Econ resilient, especially their internal link

Wolverson 11 (Roya is a writer for TIME "Would a Slow Economic Recovery Be That Bad?" Sept 9 curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/09/09/would-a-slow-economic-recovery-be-that-bad/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+The+Curious+Capitalist%29, CMR)

The good news about President Obama's $447 billion jobs plan? … overhang in the housing market.

Unemployment benefits don’t produce growth – studies and empirics prove**

Washington, 12-6-11 – Emily, “Does unemployment insurance fuel economic growth?” .

**Mercatus =  libertarian think tank

Congress faces a year-end deadline on unemployment insurance. … incentives. Real reform would create improved incentives for all involved.

2AC Turkey Counterplan

Perm: Do Both

Solves best

Golverdi, 9-19

[Issa, Syria: Convergence of US, Turkey Regional Interests, Payvand Iran News, 9-19-2011, ]

Meanwhile, despite historical apprehension of Arabs, they will … on Syria by Turkish politicians is a sign of their readiness and haste in taking advantage of the existing conditions to establish themselves as a regional power.

Turkey has no credibility with the protesters – means can’t solve that part of the aff. 

Weiss 10/26 

 (Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad. “Turkey’s Hand in the Syrian Opposition”. October 26, 2011. The Atlantic.)

The trouble is, Turkey's credibility among … infamous mukhabarat secret police.

Turkey fails on purpose and can’t be trusted

Badran 8/16
 (Tony, Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, DC. He focuses on Lebanon, Syria and Hezbollah, Obama’s Options in Damascus, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show)

Obama failed, however, to realize that Davutoğlu's "zero problems with neighbors" policy did not simply mean outreach to Iran and Syria; it was also a strategy for managing U.S. power in the region. Davutoğlu and Erdoğan's policy of non-alignment …  problems with Obama's dependence on it.

Russia Relations 2AC

a. Plan is the best option for stability – the alternative is a military invasion  that links more

b. here’s comparative evidence

RT 11-8 [“Arab League ‘non-violent’ plan for Syria wins Russian support”, , CMR]

With images of NATO’s use of excessive … Gaddafi at the hands of a violent mob.

Even if Russia dislike the plan they will not link it to the overall relationship.

Kelemen 10/10

Michele Kelemen. “U.S. 'Reset' With Russia On Edge After Syria Vote’. October 10, 2011. http://www.npr.org/2011/10/09/141187527/u-s-reset-with-russia-on-edge-after-u-n-vote

The way Russia's ambassador to the U.N. Vitaly … because we really don't toward them."

Russia will cave – they don’t want to remain isolated.

Abdul-Hussain, 1-11

[Hussain, Russia has many reasons to defend Syria’s regime, The Daily Star, 1-11-2012,

]

Should the Arab mission be deemed …  in Syria would be “guaranteed.”

Russia interests with the West outweigh – they will back down over Syria.

Dergham 9/4

Raghida Dergham, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent, Al Hayat. “How Will Iran and Hezbollah Respond to the Syrian Regime's Predicament?”. September 4, 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/how-will-iran-and-hezboll_1_b_947499.html

Assad's Syria today has no allies other …. This will happen sooner than later, under one pretext or another. But Iran will not do the same.

Low probability of miscalculation and war

Lowther ‘9

Adam. Defense Analyst, Air Force Research Institute. Challenging Nuclear Abolition. August 2009. Online.

With more than 60 years of … in developing the sound practices that have led to six decades of American and Russian restraint.

Putin accusing US of interfering ins Duma protests.

Moscow Times, 12-27

[Alexander Bayer, Why Russia No Longer Emulates the United States. 12-27-2011, ]

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has … influence on U.S. foreign policy Russians tend to greatly overestimate.

--Russia won’t fight over the Middle East

Bhadrakumar 11-3 [MK, “Russia surges in the Middle East”, , CMR]

Russia is perturbed that the NATO intervention in Libya … world or the Palestinian problem - than they have with their closest traditional ally, the United States. 

2AC Ban US Intervention CP

--CP links to politics and can’t solve credibility

Rubin, 9-8 (Trudy, “Stop Syria? It’s not as easy as Libya”, , CMR)

Yet, given today’s deranged …  calling for reforms in their country.

Banning intervention ensures massive terror attacks and kills heg

Gaffney ‘2K (Frank J. Gaffney, President, Center for Secrity Policy, “American Power – For What?”. Commentary, 1-1-2000, Lexis

Fundamentally, we agree that the main threat arises not .. with which we will have to contend for years to come.

We meet—the plan provides funding for political opposition groups—they coordinate as a result, the mechanism isn’t a mandate of the plan.

Counter-interpretation---civil society, elections or political parties

Mitchell, Columbia University School of Intemational and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and Phillips, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director, 8 [Lincoln A. and David L.. Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar. Jan 08. "Enhancing Democracy Assistance" , , CMR]

A toolbox of approaches and methods has come to define democracy assistance since the Cold War. However successful, these efforts have tended to be applied in a mechanistic and boilerplate fashion. It is necessary to hone the most frequently used democracy assistance techniques. Strengthen Civil Society Democratizing countries often lack the necessary social capital for establishing trust and cooperation, nurturing civil society, and building democracy. Elite NGOs are largely, if not entirely, dependent upon foreign financial support. They can contribute meaningfully to a country’s political growth, but their presence and activities should not be mistaken for a strong, sustainable civil society. Civil society work supporting elite NGOs should be buttressed by a civil society development approach that is considerably more grass-roots in nature. These include, for example, local soccer clubs, dance and music associations, parent and student societies, as well as other communal organizations that tend to the everyday life and activities of citizens. Such associational groups need relatively little financial support and minimal guidance. In recent years, NGOs supported by the United States have been perceived with suspicion. They are harassed and, in some countries, new laws have been adopted restricting their ability to receive and use foreign assistance. Accordingly, to effectively promote the development of civil society, US officials must tone down rhetoric that links NGOs with regime change. Rethink Political Party Work For over a decade, campaign training and short-term election work has been the centerpiece of US efforts to strengthen political parties and the electoral process. While there is still some value in such assistance, helping parties become more competitive in election campaigns is only part of what needs to be done to foster multi-party democracies. Advisory and consultative work is critical to political party development. Such activities need to be fully understood by donors who are usually reluctant to become involved with politics. In many countries today, parties are able to engage in sophisticated campaign techniques and have the resources to hire Western political consultants. However, this does not mean that there is no role for democracy assistance organizations. The political party institutes and democracy assistance organizations can support political parties by helping them develop internal democracy, build coalitions for elections, and strengthen relations between party leaders and members. Parties should also be encouraged to think beyond politics and focus on governance and service delivery. Support Elections Because support for elections has become the most visible form of democracy assistance, elections have been conflated with democracy as a simplistic and often erroneous yardstick of democratization. To be sure, elections are integral to democratization but they do not necessarily represent the culmination or confirmation of a country’s democratic development. Free and fair elections start with an electoral law and a law on the formation of political parties. These are part of the institutional arrangements of the country, and should not be considered as stand-alone activities. Frequently, however, in transition processesparticularly in post-conflict contexts- negotiation of the electoral law precedes negotiation of the constitution. Therefore, special attention should be devoted to addressing the links between constitutionmaking and electoral assistance. The administrative framework for conducting elections- the Electoral Management Body (EMB)- is critical. It requires a voter registry, an elections commission to print and distribute ballots and count the votes, as well as mechanisms for adjudicating disputes and managing the conflicts that may arise around elections. Another important though often overlooked function of the EMB is the management of perceptions and the cultivation of trust among both elites and the citizenry. The EMB must also implement mechanisms that incorporate both civil and political elites in the preparation of the election and that educate and inform the populace of the scope, aims, and limits of elections. To ensure an election’s integrity, local and international election monitors should be allowed to work unhindered. Elections are just one step toward a sustainable democracy, and after the election, democracy assistance efforts should not be scaled down. No matter what the outcome, the need for assistance is just as great even if the nature of assistance changes to reflect the needs of the post-election environment. Elections are part of a larger process of institutionalization, liberalization and democratization. Therefore, event-driven election assistance should evolve into longer-term electoral assistance that may have the added benefit of catalyzing the capacity of democracies to run local services, building confidence in democratization.

We meet—the aff supports both political parties and elections.

Prefer our interpretation—

Predictable limits— any aff outside the three areas blows the lid off the topic.

Mutual ground—lots of aff and neg literature about these three areas.

Their definition crushes aff ground—no good solvency advocates, advantages or room to innovate—outweighs neg ground—substantially guarantees perception DAs as well as a litany of generics.

Doesn’t make it bidirectional – mixes questional of solvency with questions of topicality

They don’t solve limits—exclusive definitions open the flood gates for any aff and coordination affs don’t explode the topic—it’s just an extra mechanism.

Competing interpretations is a bad method to evaluate topicality debates – it encourages arbitrary definitions and justifies counter interpretation only our case  is topical

Obama-

Hegemony is sustainable—adaptation

Joffe, pol sci prof, 9—Senior Fellow of Stanford's Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies. Fellow in International Relations at the Hoover Institutionand. Associate of the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University (Josef, The Default Power: The False Prophecy of America's Decline, Foreign Affairs Sep/Oct 2009. Vol. 88, Iss. 5; pg. 21, 15 pgs, AMiles)

Gainsayers will still dramatize Chinas growth rates as a harbinger of a grand power shift. The facts and figures and the story of the resistible rise of previous contenders should give pause to those who either cheer or fear the United States' abdication. Linearity is not a good predictor. Imperial powers have regularly succumbed to the ebb and flow of power, although in the United Kingdom's case, that took 300 years. How long will the United States' luck last? Addicted to constant reinvention, it should not fall prey to the rigor mortis that overwhelmed the Ottoman, Austrian, Russian, and Soviet empires. As the twenty-first century unfolds, the United States will be younger and more dynamic than its competitors. And as a liberal empire, it can work the international system with fewer costs than yesterday's behemoths, which depended on territorial possessions and had to conduct endless wars against natives and rivals. A Tyrannosaurus rex faces costlier resistance than the bumbling bull that is the United States. A final point to ponder: Who would actually want to live in a world dominated by China, India, Japan, Russia, or even Europe, which for all its enormous appeal cannot take care of its own backyard? Not even those who have been trading in glee and gloom decade after decade would prefer any of them to take over as housekeeper of the world.

Group their country specific defense doesn’t assume the U.S. cedeing control of the Middle East, prefer our Huellet and Myers evidence, they’re in the context of Syria – withdrawl embolden adversaries causes multiple challenges.

North Korean aggression turns their impacts our hayes evidence says < INSERT>

Taiwan conflict draws in the U.S. causes extinction (turns their economy impact because China and the U.S. are the two largest economies and it would collapse the trading partnership, accesses a bigger internal link)

Generic heg defense is highly theoretical and doesn’t assume our scenario of opportunistic attacks – our brezenski and barnet evidence says multiple conflict go nuclear, cites historical data going back 2000 years and correlates global superpowers with a 99% reduction in violence, means we access the only internal link to an existential impact because hegemony could descalate their scenerios.

Primacy solves escalation is pour argument but not if countries don’t think we’ll sue it the reason it solves is because they think its credible.

Solvency

Group the assad collapse arguments

Assad’s collapse is inevitable – defections and weakened military.

Weiss, 1-13

[Michael, Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, War in Syria may now be inevitable, The Telegraph, 1-13-2012, ]

Of particular note, though, is what else my Washington …… counterpart, only leave the country feet first.

Assad is on the way out – reducing the timeline is key to preventing escalation of war and sectarian tensions.

Abrams, 12-11

[Elliott, The Syrian Civil War, CFR, 12-11-2011, ]

The revolt against the Assad regime is becoming a …… better—and every effort should be made to bring that day closer.

Syria has crossed into civil war. Violence is spreading and the government has lost control of several regions

NYT 1/12
 (Anthony Shadid, Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/world/middleeast/syria-in-deep-crisis-may-be-slipping-out-of-control.html?_r=2

The failure of an  mission to stanch …… him — and the coming days will bring more blood into the streets.”

Direct engagement with the opposition compresses the timeline and prevents a power vacuum.

Doran, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 8-2

[Michael, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, 8 & Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Getting Serious in Syria, American Interest Online, August 2, 2011,  ]

The Syrian status quo, whatever is left of it, …… and allowing a genuine process of transition to begin.

US support for democratic reform is CRITICAL to successful transition.

Badran, 9-22

[Tony, Research Fellow  Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Axis of Abuse:

U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II, Congressional Testimony, 9-22-2011, ]

We have reached a potentially dangerous …… for a review of the administration’s Syria policy.

PTC 2AC

Won’t pass – 5 reasons

Costs, Medicare, salaries, CTC, offsets

Weisman 1-17 (Jonathon, “Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html, CMR)

Yet finding more than $160 billion in …… reconcile the differences between House and Senate bills.

No chance it fails and Obama isn’t key

Wong, 1-16-12 – Scott, “Payroll tax cut deal may come faster than expected,” POLITICO,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html#ixzz1jq82XPkF

The one-year payroll tax deal that eluded Congress …… wants to revisit that debate during a political year.”

a. FAA comes before PTC

Goldman, 1-18-12 – “Congress Reconvenes With Transportation Deadlines Fast Approaching,” DC Streets Blog, .

Aviation policy isn’t usually something that gets mentioned on …… extension problematic to the point of being unworkable.

b. Triggers the link

POLITICO, 1-16-11 – “Transportation bills abound as Congress returns,” .

The House returns Tuesday …… over more than 2,400 days for the two laws.

Solyndra will drain Obama’s capital – we control momentum

The Hill, 1-13 – Andrew Restuccia, E2 Wire, The Hill’s Energy and Environment Blog, .

House Republicans have signaled the …… 135 pages of documents in response to the committee’s subpoena. Republicans have called the response inadequate.

Doesn’t solve growth

Louis Woodhill 12-21, columnist for Forbes, “Don't Extend The Ill-Conceived, Evil Payroll Tax Cut”,

It became clear before the financial markets opened in New York on December 20 …… Security System. If America is to thrive, the Stupid Party must become less stupid. Refusing to extend this ill-conceived tax cut would be a good place for the Republicans to start.

--Econ resilient, especially their internal link

Wolverson 11 (Roya is a writer for TIME "Would a Slow Economic Recovery Be That Bad?" Sept 9 curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/09/09/would-a-slow-economic-recovery-be-that-bad/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+The+Curious+Capitalist%29, CMR)

The good news about President Obama's $447 billion jobs plan? A lot of analysts …… the overhang in the housing market.

--Flexibility solves the link

McInerney 11 – Exec. Dir. of the Project on Middle East Democracy Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July , CMR)

The administration has wisely budgeted …… and opportunities.

Your evidence doesn’t say that its controversial just that Obama would have to do something.

--No spillover

Dickinson 9  (Matthew, previously taught at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D, professor of political science at Middlebury College, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation goes as follows: the …… be measured through legislative boxscores.

--Winners win- plan is key to Obama political power

Creamer 1-2, political organizer and strategist for four decades (Robert, he and his firm, Democracy Partners, work with many of the country’s most significant issue campaigns, one of the major architects and organizers of the successful campaign to defeat the privatization of Social Security, he has been a consultant to the campaigns to end the war in Iraq, pass universal health care, pass Wall Street reform, change America’s budget priorities and enact comprehensive immigration reform, he has also worked on hundreds of electoral campaigns at the local, state and national level, "Why GOP Collapse on the Payroll Tax Could be a Turning Point Moment," www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-gop-collapse-on-the-p_b_1167491.html, CMR)

Strength and victory are enormous political …… you have them on the run - that's the time to chase them.

Russia—2AC

a. Plan is the best option for stability – the alternative is a military invasion

Saddy 9/28 (Fehmy, served as advisor to governments, corporations and international development insitutions - including the World Bank Group and Islamic Development Bank. He served as a diplomat in the Syrian Foreign Service and then pursued a career in academia, teaching at the American University of Washington, Beirut and Kuwait. He holds LLB and LLM degrees in International Law as well as a PhD in International Studies., Aljazeera, The Arab Spring and Syria’s Long Winter, )

If the Assad regime continues to be in a state of denial, …… shift in the regional power structure.

b. That scares Russia more – they’ll support non-military solutions

RT 11-8 [“Arab League ‘non-violent’ plan for Syria wins Russian support”, , CMR]

With images of NATO’s use of excessive force in Libya …… the hands of a violent mob.

Even if Russia dislike the plan they will not link it to the overall relationship.

Kelemen 10/10

Michele Kelemen. “U.S. 'Reset' With Russia On Edge After Syria Vote’. October 10, 2011. http://www.npr.org/2011/10/09/141187527/u-s-reset-with-russia-on-edge-after-u-n-vote

The way Russia's ambassador to the U.N. Vitaly …… e really don't toward them."

Russia will cave – they don’t want to remain isolated.

Abdul-Hussain, 1-11

[Hussain, Russia has many reasons to defend Syria’s regime, The Daily Star, 1-11-2012,

]

Should the Arab mission be deemed a …… in mid-November that should Assad fall, Russian interests in Syria would be “guaranteed.”

Putin accusing US of interfering ins Duma protests.

Moscow Times, 12-27

[Alexander Bayer, Why Russia No Longer Emulates the United States. 12-27-2011, ]

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ……, whose influence on U.S. foreign policy Russians tend to greatly overestimate.

A2: EU CP

--Process is key—Obama he needs to buck the state department and recalibrate Syria policy

Dorell 11 [Oren, “Syria, Libya merit different U.S. policies”, 5-15, , CMR]

Some foreign policy experts say the White House is …… region has to be redone."

--Only the plan coordinates US Syria policy—key to deterrence

Jakub Grygiel 10-3, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3, 2011, “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion,” online: http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Whether we want it to or not, democratization …… consequences of their actions.

Only US action solves leadership and civil war

Kessler 12-12 (Oren, 'No substitute for US leadership on Syria', , CMR)

WASHINGTON – Syria is too important a …… Assad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are allies,” he said.

2AC Obama

--Obama can’t lead from behind on Syria—failure to reverse current strategy will surrender GLOBAL leadership

Gardiner 11 [Nile, Washington-based foreign affairs analyst and political commentator, “Barack Obama’s 'leading from behind' foreign policy”, April 26, , CMR]

“Leading from behind”-----restore its standing in the world.

--LFB on Syria spills over—even if the plan doesn’t shift doctrine

Boot ’11 (Max, CFR Senior Fellow, “Assad is Learning from Lesson of Libya”, 8-1, , CMR)

If there is one fact proven ----“lead from behind” foreign policy.

LFB Bad—Asia

--LFB doctrine assures asia wars

Kawamura ’11 H Ross Kawamura (Shah Alexander), Founder – New Global Initiatives with America, MSc (Int’l Political Econ - London School of Economics) September 20, 2011 http://newglobal-america.blogspot.com/2011/09/can-america-trust-president-obama-on.html Can America Trust President Obama on National Security?

Obama’s appeasement -------“America welcomes a strong China”.

--Extinction

Landay, 2k (Jonathan Landay, Knight-Ridder National Security and Intelligence senior correspondent, Knight Ridder Washington Bureau, “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts” March 10, lexis)

Few if any experts think China------- , according to the Commerce Department.

Solvency-

Group the collapse arguments he will go-

Assad’s collapse is inevitable – defections and weakened military.

Weiss, 1-13

[Michael, Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, War in Syria may now be inevitable, The Telegraph, 1-13-2012, ]

Of particular note, though, --------- only leave the country feet first.

Assad is on the way out – reducing the timeline is key to preventing escalation of war and sectarian tensions.

Abrams, 12-11

[Elliott, The Syrian Civil War, CFR, 12-11-2011, ]

The revolt against the Assad regime ----------made to bring that day closer.

They say unification is impossible  - about the SNC not the internal opposition which is who the plan affects-

Group their two turn cards- they like us and will accespt the plan-

Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, New Republic, 10-1, http://www.tnr.com/print/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak)

But in an ironic twist of ----------doing something would be most effective.

Russia—2AC

No link – their evidence assumes the UN resolution, not the US diversifying support – there’s no uniqueness for any of “aid” arguments since the US is already backing the Muslim Brotherhood – the status quo guarantees US influence and a puppet government aligned with the US but opposed to Russian influence

a. Plan is the best option for stability – the alternative is a military invasion

Saddy 9/28 (Fehmy, served as advisor to governments, corporations and international development insitutions - including the World Bank Group and Islamic Development Bank. He served as a diplomat in the Syrian Foreign Service and then pursued a career in academia, teaching at the American University of Washington, Beirut and Kuwait. He holds LLB and LLM degrees in International Law as well as a PhD in International Studies., Aljazeera, The Arab Spring and Syria’s Long Winter, )

If the Assad regime ------- the regional power structure.

b. That scares Russia more – they’ll support non-military solutions

RT 11-8 [“Arab League ‘non-violent’ plan for Syria wins Russian support”, , CMR]

With images of NATO’s use of ----------- Muammar Gaddafi at the hands of a violent mob.

--Empirically no escalation – deterrence has prevented conflict for 60 years

Kang 10 – professor of international relations and business and director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California (12/31/10, David C., “Korea’s New Cold War,” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653)

However, despite dueling artillery --------- expand the fighting into a general war.

Russia will cave – they don’t want to remain isolated.

Abdul-Hussain, 1-11

[Hussain, Russia has many reasons to defend Syria’s regime, The Daily Star, 1-11-2012,

]

Should the Arab mission -------- in Syria would be “guaranteed.”

Russia interests with the West outweigh – they will back down over Syria.

Dergham 9/4

Raghida Dergham, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent, Al Hayat. “How Will Iran and Hezbollah Respond to the Syrian Regime's Predicament?”. September 4, 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/how-will-iran-and-hezboll_1_b_947499.html

Assad's Syria today has no allies --------- But Iran will not do the same.

Low probability of miscalculation and war

Lowther ‘9

Adam. Defense Analyst, Air Force Research Institute. Challenging Nuclear Abolition. August 2009. Online.

With more than 60 years of nuclear weapons experience, ----------  six decades of American and Russian restraint.

No link – Russia fears the SNC but NOT the internal opposition.

Martin, 1-14

[Patrick, Russia stands shoulder-to-shoulder with besieged Syrian leader, The Globe and Mail, 1-14-2012, ]

Russia has its own plan ----------- be subject to a limit on his term.

--Russia won’t fight over the Middle East

Bhadrakumar 11-3 [MK, “Russia surges in the Middle East”, , CMR]

Russia is perturbed that the NATO intervention in Libya ---------- than they have with their closest traditional ally, the United States. 

PTC 2AC

Won’t pass – 5 reasons

Costs, Medicare, salaries, CTC, offsets

Weisman 1-17 (Jonathon, “Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html, CMR)

Yet finding more than $160 billion in ------------ reconcile the differences between House and Senate bills.

No chance it fails and Obama isn’t key

Wong, 1-16-12 – Scott, “Payroll tax cut deal may come faster than expected,” POLITICO,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html#ixzz1jq82XPkF

The one-year payroll tax deal that eluded Congress last month ------------- that debate during a political year.”

THUMPERS—

--Solyndra will drain Obama’s capital – we control momentum

The Hill, 1-13 – Andrew Restuccia, E2 Wire, The Hill’s Energy and Environment Blog, .

House Republicans have signaled the Solyndra controversy ------------ Republicans have called the response inadequate.

Keystone

Koss 1-19 (Geof, "For Obama, No Escape From Pipeline Rejection," CQ Today, public.cq.com/docs/news/news-000004013280.html)

For Obama, ----------- Orlando website and elsewhere.

Iran signing statement

Broder 1-14 (Jonathan, "Tightening the Screws On Iran — and Obama," CQ Weekly, 1-14-12, public.cq.com/docs/weeklyreport/weeklyreport-000004011280.html)

Another Middle East war is the last thing Obama wants right now. --------- has threatened to bomb Iran if it develops a nuclear weapon.

--Non-unique—Obama just pushed assistance to Egypt and Libya

--Flexibility solves the link

McInerney 11 – Exec. Dir. of the Project on Middle East Democracy Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July , CMR)

The administration has wisely budgeted ---------unexpected developments and opportunities.

--Not intrinsic – a logical policymaker can do the plan and pass payroll-tax cuts

--No spillover

Dickinson 9  (Matthew, previously taught at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D, professor of political science at Middlebury College, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation------------- power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

--Winners win- plan is key to Obama political power

Creamer 1-2, political organizer and strategist for four decades (Robert, he and his firm, Democracy Partners, work with many of the country’s most significant issue campaigns, one of the major architects and organizers of the successful campaign to defeat the privatization of Social Security, he has been a consultant to the campaigns to end the war in Iraq, pass universal health care, pass Wall Street reform, change America’s budget priorities and enact comprehensive immigration reform, he has also worked on hundreds of electoral campaigns at the local, state and national level, "Why GOP Collapse on the Payroll Tax Could be a Turning Point Moment," www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-gop-collapse-on-the-p_b_1167491.html, CMR)

Strength and victory are enormous political assets. -----------------------when you have them on the run - that's the time to chase them.

FS

Doesn’t solve growth

Louis Woodhill 12-21, columnist for Forbes, “Don't Extend The Ill-Conceived, Evil Payroll Tax Cut”,

It became clear before the financial markets opened in New York -------------for the Republicans to start.

--Their link is too small—

Wolverson 11 (Roya is a writer for TIME "Would a Slow Economic Recovery Be That Bad?" Sept 9 curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/09/09/would-a-slow-economic-recovery-be-that-bad/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+The+Curious+Capitalist%29, CMR)

The good news about President Obama's $-------------- working off the overhang in the housing market.

--Only a risk of a turn—there’s aid now but Obama is being criticized for too weak a response  

Rogin, 12-28 (Josh, covers national security and foreign policy and writes the daily Web column The Cable, graduate of George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, “Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition”, , CMR)

As the violence in Syria spirals out of control, ----------country's complex dynamics before getting more involved.

EU/NED CP—2AC

--Perm – Do the CP

--Can’t solve US signal – there is zero chance that a NGO funded by a foreign country generates the same perception as the plan – our Badrain and Sheikh Evidence say coherent US policy is key

--CP is seen as inconsistent since it would pit the NED against US support for the Muslim Brotherhood—kills foreign policy

Carothers 94 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment and Co-director of its Democracy Project. [Thomas Carothers, “The NED at 10,” Foreign Policy, No. 95 (Summer, 1994), pp. 123-138]

Nonetheless, inconsistencies between the NED's ------------only after activities are underway.

Extend Obama Power/resolve internals efficiently etc

--Doesn’t solve – they’re incompetent

Conry 93 (Barbara, Foreign Policy Analyst             was a public relations consultant at Hensley Segal Rentschler and an expert on security issues in the Middle East, Western Europe, and Central Asia @ Cato, “Loose Cannon: The National Endowment for Democracy”, , Wes)

In addition to the political problems, ---------------a problem at the level of the endowment itself just as it is at the recipient levels.

Perm — Do both.

--Only US lead checks violence—EU action undermines credibility and links to politics

Coghlan 11 [Jo, lecturer in Politics at the School of Social Sciences and International Studies at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, “Obama: Leading from behind on Syria”, , CMR] ***[ing] = correction by Collin

Obama has made America’s first explicit call for ------------------as children such as Hamza al-Khateeb die in Syrian jails.

International Fiat is a voting issue

1. Decision-making model – they’re not a coherent objection to the plan – it doesn’t correspond to any policy literature

2. Education – Eliminates whole categories of argument – we can no longer have IR discussions

3. The EU is uniquely abusive – allowing CP’s that fiat multiple countries justifies object fiat and kills our best offense 

Counter-interpretation – they get topic disads and CP’s that request foreign action

EU can’t fund the NED- if they could they wouldn’t be trying to create their own

Gershman their article ‘6 [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. ]

Indeed, the consensus on the -----------------European Parliament have been campaigning for a "European NED".

--Strong Obama leadership key to check miscalculation and war with Iran—causes shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz

Hannah 1-9 (senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, former national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, is, John, “The U.S.: MIA in the Mideast”, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-hannah-mideast-20120109,0,4362289.story, CMR)

The hardening conviction that the U.S. is … be a top priority for Obama.

--That collapses the global economy—overwhelms resiliency

Industry Week, 1-9 (“Despite Low Probability, an Iranian Blockade Would Have Enormous Consequences for Global Economy”, http://www.industryweek.com/articles/despite_low_probability_an_iranian_blockade_would_have_enormous_consequences_for_global_economy_26311.aspx?Page=2?ShowAll=1, CMR)

Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, … recession in the United States would follow."

--All checks will fail—perception alone triggers collapse—experts agree

Krauss 1-4 (Clifford, “Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/business/oil-price-would-skyrocket-if-iran-closed-the-strait.html, CMR)

Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, … no certainty in this kind of situation.”

--The impact is global war

Royal 10 – Director of CTR Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase … featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Harder line on Syria collapses the balance between Turkey, Russia and Iran.

Afrasiabi, 11

[Kaveh, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy,       

Misstep in Turkey's neighborly ties, Asia Times, 10-12-2011, ]

Further, its talk of sanctions on Syria over an ongoing bloody crackdown on protests … and theoretical framework in dire need of rethinking.

Balkans are on the brink of armed conflict – mediating EU and Russia is key.

MacDonald, 11

[Brad, Tension in the Balkans, Again, The Trumpet, 10-6-2011, ]

The Balkan Peninsula has been the convergence … Peninsula. … Europe has effectively conquered Yugoslavia!”

Turkish credibility is key maintain stability in the Balkans.

Werz & Duss, 11

[Michael and Caroline, Sr. Fellow with the National Security Team at the Center for American Progress & Policy analyst at the Middle East Center, After Turkey’s June Election, Center for American Progress, June 2011, ]

Turkey's ambition and capability to reinvent itself as a … on other parts of the world.            

Any conflict in the Balkans is likely to draw in great powers and lead to global war – history is on our side.

Paris, 2

[Roland, assistant professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Kosovo and the Metaphor War, Political Science Quarterly, 117:3, http://aix1.uottawa.ca/~rparis/Metaphor.pdf]

At this early stage in the Kosovo crisis, Clinton’s language was …  powderkeg, before it is too late.

That goes nuclear – draws in Russia.

Daily Herald, 5-9, 99'

[Dogs of War, Lexis]

We hear the grim rationale for sending in ground troops "to salvage the credibility … war and incalculable self-destruction.

 --Obama is failing to lead in the Middle East ensuring weakness and collapse of foreign policy—Syria is the key test

Pletka, Vice President at the American Enterprise Institute, and Gottlieb, Professor @ Columbia, 10-19 (Danielle Pletka is Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, AND Stuart, former Senate foreign policy adviser and speechwriter (1999-2003), and teaches U.S. foreign policy and national security at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, “Shrinking America's Role In the World Is the True Obama Doctrine”, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/10/19/shrinking-americas-role-in-world-is-true-obama-doctrine/, CMR)

After months of mixed messages, President … remote control alternative to actual American leadership.

--Lack of Syria policy jeopardizes Obama’s leadership – overwhelms every other gain

Smith 11-7 [Lee, Senior Editor @ the Weekly Standard, “What Syria Policy?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/what-syria-policy_604182.html?page=1, CMR]

The threat against the life of the American …  realize that America is the other.

--This policy abdicates US leadership—only US action can ensure successful transition and regional hegemony

Doran, 12-13 [Michael, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy The Brookings Institution, United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?, Brookings, 12-13-2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1213_syria_doran.aspx, SH]

If so, then why doesn’t President Obama put together … the game, it is unlikely to win.

--This is not a soft power or credibility advantage—weak OBAMA influence from leading from behind destroys hegemony – emboldens adversaries

Hulett ‘11 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 9/3/2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/highlight/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership, CMR)

We also know a bit more about Obama’s semi-idealist … promoting democracy and liberty.

--Heg decline results in global conflict—successors won’t fill in and multiple hotspots escalate

Brzezinski ’12—national security advisor under U.S. President Jimmy Carter (ZBIGNIEW, “After America How does the world look in an age of U.S. decline? Dangerously unstable”, December/January, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,1, CMR)

For if America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated … a new, timely strategic vision for its foreign policy -- or start bracing itself for a dangerous slide into global turmoil.

--Extinction

Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans … second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

--Obama’s weakness on Syria causes conflict with Iran, North Korea, China, and Venezuela

Meyers & Walter 1-11 (Jim & Kathleen, “Oliver North: Obama Has Made US a 'Hollow Threat'”, http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/North-Obama-Iran-Strike/2012/01/11/id/423818, CMR)

Decorated military veteran and best-selling author Oliver … in Iran, looks at that as a sign of weakness. It cannot bode well for America in the midst of a war to start demobilizing today.”

--North Korea conflict causes extinction  

Hayes, 10 [Peter & Michael Hamel-Green, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy, the Western partner of the Council on Foreign Relations; and the US Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia” Nautilus, Special Report, 10-001: January 5th, 2010, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf] 

The international community is increasingly aware that … in intercepting ship-borne nuclear exports, but it is by no means clear how air-transported materials could similarly be intercepted.

--China conflict causes great power nuclear war

Glaser 11—pol sci prof and dir. Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, George Wash. PhD, Harvard. (Charles, Will China's Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism, Foreign Affairs 90;2, Proquest)

The prospects for avoiding intense military competition … goals, granting them can lead not to further demands but rather to satisfaction with the new status quo and a reduction of tension.

--The plan solves—OBAMA’s support for the opposition demonstrates strong Syria policy

Ajami 1-6 (senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and co-chair of Hoover's Working Group on Islamism and the International Order, Fouad, “America and the Solitude of the Syrians”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203462304577139434278336136.html, CMR)

The U.S. response has been similarly shameful. From … this bondage, the Syrian people are determined to release themselves. As of now, they are on their own.