Plan Text: The United States federal government should provide political organization assistance for Syrian opposition groups
Advantage 1: Proxy War
First is the SQ -
Saudi Arabia is filling the void in Syria, sparking sectarian conflict and risking full scale civil war in a bid to confront Iran.
Mainen, 7-25 - policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs
[Mathew, Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria, Mainen Middle East Analysis, July 25, 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]
While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing
AND
Iran, not a Saudi proxy.
Syria is on the brink of collapse- means high risk of proxy war
Reuters 9/28
(Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent, “As Troops Defect, Syria Risks Civil War”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/28/us-syria-conflict-idUSTRE78R36J20110928)
As Syrian army defectors begin launching attacks
AND
Syrian people and building a realistic alternative."
Lack of US leadership in Syria cedes hegemony to Saudi Arabia.
Queenann, 8-14
[Gavriel, Analysis: Syria and the 'Saudi Dawn', Israeli National News, 8-14-2011, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717]
As the Obama Administration appears reticent
AND
is being called “the Saudi Dawn.”
Saudi led assistance guarantees Islamist government in Syria – broader support for democratic opposition prevents escalation.
Ghadry, 8-23 - a member of the Committee on the Present Danger
[Farid, Saudi Arabia: Keep Your Hands Off Syria, Pajamas Media, 8-23-2011, http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/saudi-arabia-keep-your-hands-off-syria/2/]
On August 18, after six months of the Assad
AND
face far greater tragedies.
Saudi Arabia must balance pressure against Assad – too much risks internal backlash and friction with the US.
Saab, 8-31 - visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies
[Bilal, How Saudi Arabia Can Contain Iran and Other Benefits From Syria's Turmoil, Assyrian International News Agency, 8-31-2011, http://www.aina.org/news/2011083118589.htm]
But turning a blind eye to Syria's mischief
AND
And then Tehran would rejoice.
AND, the impacts - First, Saudi Arabia-Iran confrontation in Syria escalates to open conflict.
Hardy, 3-27
[Frank, Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?, Suite 101, March 27, 2011, http://www.suite101.com/content/will-cries-for-democracy-shift-to-sectarian-violence-in-syria-a362174]
The latest Arab uprising, on the eastern shore of
AND
root of her greatest destruction.
Iran-Saudi war goes nuclear, collapses the global economy and guarantees US intervention.
Jain, 11 - , a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010
[Ash, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf]
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to
AND
complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.
AND, Iran – Saudi Proxy war leads to chemical weapons use.
Spector, 8-23 – Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies
[Leonard, Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance]
Let's start with the possibility of civil war.
AND
able to maintain strict security measures at the chemical sites.
Any Syrian CBW miscalculation leads to immediate nuclear retaliation by Israel.
Lindsey, 2k7
[Hal, “The Sampson Option” World Net Daily, July 14, 2007, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56663]
Syria recently test-fired two Scud-D
AND
process of nuking the Middle East.
And, the plan solves - US must take a leadership role to pressure other nations to isolate Syria – the alternative is Arab led sectarian conflict.
Young, 8-1
[Michael, Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West, The Daily Beast, August 1, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html]
Throughout, the White House has painstakingly avoided demanding
AND
just as well been addressing the far larger community of nations.
Advantage 2: Credability
Syria is the key test for American credibility in the Middle East. Absent the plan regional adversaries will test the United States and trigger multiple scenarios for regional aggression
Doran 8/22
(Michael, former senior director for the Middle East at the U.S. National Security Council/ Roger Hertog senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Policy, The Nexus and the Olive Tree, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full)
Pressing though these questions may be, they must not be permitted to drive out deep consideration
AND
produce a different result in the future.
Indecision signals weakness and leads belligerence from our adversaries. The process is more important than the decision
Bolton 9 - Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute [John R. Bolton (Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) “The danger of Obama's dithering,” Los Angeles Times, October 18, 2009, pg. http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18]
Weakness in American foreign policy in
AND
at a Sept. 24 U.N. Security Council meeting that "we live in the real world, not a virtual one."
And, weak Obama risks global wars. One test of resolve will open the floodgates
Hanson 9 – Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University [Dr. Victor Davis Hanson, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, 2009 http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson121609.html)
BC: Are we currently sending a message
AND
quite knows whom it will bite or when.
There are multiple scenarios
Peters 8 – Former Foreign Area Officer, in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence. [Ralph Peters (Retired United States Army Lieutenant Colonel. Currently is a reporter who fouses on politics in troubled countries), “AMERICA THE WEAK: US RISKS TURMOIL UNDER PREZ O,” Last Updated: 4:51 AM, New York Post, October 20, 2008, pg. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_GS5vnNwCO6UjfBPf3uobyM.]
IF Sen. Barack Obama is elected president, our re public will survive
AND
will again have the upper hand. Putin will be allowed to do what he wants.
Weakening Pakistani government causes full collapse- the risk is high
Pauly 10
(Reid, Ploughshares Fund, 10/13/2010 Understanding Pakistan, http://www.ploughshares.org/news-analysis/news/understanding-pakistan)
Whether you are concerned with
AND
Afghanistan is inextricably linked to our partnership with Pakistan.”
Unstable Pakistan causes nuclear war
Kagan 7
(Frederick W. Kagan is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Pakistan’s Collapse, Our Problem,” NYT 11-18, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/18kagan.html.)
AS the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact
AND
Pakistan may be the next big test.
North Korea conflict triggers nuclear and biological war
Sossel ‘5 – Atlantic senior editor
[Scott, “North Korea: The War Game”, July/August, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200507/stossel]
The North Korean situation is also ripe for
AND
weapons-of-mass-destruction yard sale for smugglers.
Resolute action in Syria is the key internal link. Lack of action undermines global credibility.
Singh 8/16
(Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council., The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1697)
When the story of the Arab Spring is written in Arabic, it is unlikely to reflect well on the United States
AND
Washington despite its rhetoric will once again need to deal with him.
US military leadership is inevitable – but credibility is key to solve transnational problems – terrorism, disease, climate, war
Nye 11
(Joseph S. Nye Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, God of Soft Power “The Future of Power”, 2011, CMR)
Today, power in the world is distributed in a pattern
AND
Thinking more clearly about power and stimulating that broader narrative are the purposes of this book. [xvi-xvii]
Pandemics cause extinction
Yu ‘9 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate]
In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim
AND
infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).
C02 emissions cause extinction
Kristof 6
[NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, American journalist, author, op-ed columnist, and a winner of two Pulitzer Prizes, “Scandal Below the Surface”, Oct 31, 2006, http://select.nytimes.com/2006/10/31/opinion/31kristof.html?_r=1]
If you think of the earth’s surface as a great beaker,
AND
research and development has fallen by more than half, after inflation, since 1979.
Solvency Contention
Direct engagement with the opposition compresses the timeline and prevents a power vacuum.
Doran & Shaikh, 8-2 – senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution & director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy
[Michael & Salman, Getting Serious in Syria, American Interest Online, August 2, 2011, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001]
The Syrian status quo, whatever is left of it, is not sustainable
AND
allowing a genuine process of transition to begin.
US support for national dialog prevents sectarian conflict and crowds out regional competitors.
Al-Assad, 8-10 - Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria
[Ribal, The struggle for Syria, Global Public Square, August 10, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/]
CAIRO – As the violence in Syria mounts, the international community’s
AND
would not only benefit Syrians, but would be a force for stability throughout the region.
US support for democratic reform is CRITICAL to successful transition.
Badran, 9-22
[Tony, Research Fellow Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Axis of Abuse:
U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II, Congressional Testimony, 9-22-2011, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf]
We have reached a potentially dangerous moment in the Syrian revolution.
AND
review of the administration’s Syria policy.
Lack of US support signals the opposition that we don’t care and makes civil war inevitable – inaction is a bigger risk than the kiss of death.
Shaikh, 10-12
[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=1]
The longer the current situation lasts, the more likely it is that
AND
for a post-Assad Syria.
Direct US support to broaden the current coalition is key to preventing violence – arguments that the US should sit it out ignore the increasing risk of civil war.
Shaikh, 10-12
[Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, New York Times, 10-12-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=1]
The United States should also recognize the Syrian National Council as the legitimate
AND
allies do not act quickly, Syria will descend into chaos.
Support for secular groups key to gain support of military and business elites and prevent violent collapse of the Assad regime.
Yacoubian,
[Mona, senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Saving Syria from civil war, FP, 10-5-2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war]
As Syria's uprising lurches toward its seventh month, fears that the country will descend into a sectarian
AND
target the Syrian government bureaucracy and commercial sector, rejuvenating the opposition without spurring further violence.
