Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase assistance to Shaykhs and political opposition parties for Yemen to foster political reform.  

Democracy assistance to tribal leaders and political parties is k
Green, 11 - Soref fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and
stability operations. (Daniel, “Yemen May Be Next Regime to Fall,” 3/23,
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/03/23/yemen_may_be_next_regime_to_fall_99453.html)

• Actively engage the political …. and tribal leaders. 

Regime collapse in Yemen is inevitable, it’s just a question of whether it will be peaceful or not. The plan is key to showing Saleh he no longer has US support which ensures a peaceful transition that avoids civil war and prevents popular support for AQAP—a  regional terrorist group, from growing .  The Obama administration has already called for the Saleh administration to step down to no avail—they now need to materially side themselves with the protestors
James R. King, a specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East and a former Fulbright Fellow in Jordan and he holds an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University and has conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi community through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, 3/21/11, “The end for President Salih in Yemen” http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen
The regime of Yemeni President ….bold assertion of core American values.

And, the US re-aligning its stance in Yemen to engage protestors is key to removing cover for AQAP by driving it out of its safe havens
The atlantic 11 (march 3, “how the us can best help yemen,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/)
How can the U.S. help chart an …., ultimately, cover for its actions.
And, cooperating with tribal leaders through the plan is key to creating the ties needed for effective intelligence gathering 

Peter Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil
While efforts to combat the long-term ….information without reciprocal assistance.

This cultural intelligence gathering is key to breaking terrorist cells and thwarting planned attacks
Peter Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil
The importance of …. proper main efforts.

And, finally, winning hearts and minds through democracy assistance is key to stopping AQAP
Novak 4 (Jane American journalist and political analyst specializing in middle eastern affairs, “yemen in the spring,” december 22, http://www.middleeasttransparent.com/old/texts/jane_novak_yemen_in_the_spring.htm)
That was also the year Freedom House ….and its tool, the judiciary.

Two reasons this is good—First is terrorism:
AQAP is the only terrorist threat —organizational structure, bomb-making capabilities, and global connections
Frank J. Cilluffo, the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and  Clinton Watts, a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 6/24/11, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm
AQAP is the only al Qaeda affiliate …. goals with those of Al Qaeda’s.

And, theyre looking to attack the US soon
Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 6/10/11, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php
Saleh's departure after three ….and dangerous technologies."

AQAP attack ends in extinction— The scenario is Nuclear Terrorism:
AQAP will acquire uranium and launch a nuclear terror attack
Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 6/10/11, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php
Attacks targeting the ….survived without injury.

This will cause extinction
Wright 7 – New America Foundation senior fellow (Robert, 4/28, Planet Of The Apes, http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html, AG)
(3) Terrorism. Alas, the …. our mishandling of it. 

And even an unsuccessful nuclear attack results in retaliation which leads to extinction
Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld)
But these two nuclear worlds—….or unwilling to provide.

And, even a small attack escalates due to fear based retaliation
Byman 7 – Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown (Daniel, September, US Counter-terrorism Options, http://cpass.georgetown.edu/Articles/August07/SurvivalArticle_DLB_Aug07.pdf, AG)
Yet terrorism scares people. …. a massive overreaction. 

Second is Yemeni Civil War—
Yemen on the brink of civil war – action now is key
Washington Post, 5/23/11, “A long goodbye, and a test for Mr. Obama, from Yemen’s president” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-long-goodbye-and-a-test-for-mr-obama-from-yemens-president/2011/05/23/AFRPh39G_story.html
AS PART OF HIS new pro-democracy …. accepts the transition agreement.

Scenario one:  Yemeni civil war causes  Saudi-Iran Proxy wars  
Bipartisan Policy Center 11 (Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of StateAdmiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3)
Were the situation to …. resultant lack of legitimacy.

Ends in extinction
London, professor emeritus of New York University, 6/23/10 [Herbert, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds]
The gathering storm …. lead to a nuclear exchange.

Scenario two:  Yemeni civil war spills over into a broader middle east conflict
Frederick W. Kagan, author of the 2007 report Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq, is one of the intellectual architects of the successful "surge" strategy in Iraq. He is the director of the AEI Critical Threats Project and a former professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. His books range from Lessons for a Long War (AEI Press, 2010), coauthored with Thomas Donnelly, to the End of the Old Order: Napoleon and Europe, 1801-1805, also Associate Professor of Military History, 2001-2005; Assistant Professor of Military History, 1995-2001; U.S. Military Academy at West Point, also Ph.D., Russian and Soviet military history; B.A., Soviet and East European studies, Yale University, 1/20/10, “Yemen: Confronting Al-Qaeda, Preventing State Failure” http://www.aei.org/speech/100119
The prospect of ….. al Qaeda safe-haven.

Extinction—checks against escalation don’t apply to the middle east  
Russell 9 (James, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East, in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)
Strategic stability in the ….. risk for the entire world.

Nuclear escalation guaranteed—
A. Iran strikes Israel
Cetron and Daniels 7 (Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, "Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)
Nuclear proliferation: A new arms …. has nukes of its own.

B. Pakistan
Cetron and Daniels 7 (Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, "Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)
The most ominous nuclear …. effort has yet to begin. 

US aid towards regime opposition groups key to prevent violent collapse
J. Dana Stuster, a former Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security and previously a Research Associate at Anacapa Sciences, is a writer living in Washington, DC, 5/23/11, “Should the U.S. Intervene in Yemen?” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/should-the-us-intervene-in-yemen/239235/1/
It is a dangerous ….which it could as time continues.

Same as aff under Texas GM

AC UNT= Plan = === The United States federal government should substantially increase assistance to Shaykhs and political opposition parties for Yemen to foster political reform. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Stability Advantage = **Yemen is on the brink of civil war** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Washington Post 11(%%), (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(5/23 “A long goodbye, and a test for Mr. Obama, from Yemen’s president” [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-long-goodbye-and-a-test-for-mr-obama-from-yemens-president/2011/05/23/AFRPh39G_story.html>>http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-long-goodbye-and-a-test-for-mr-obama-from-yemens-president/2011/05/23/AFRPh39G_story.html]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %)AS PART OF HIS new ….. the transition agreement. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Regime collapse in Yemen is inevitable – status quo US support of Saleh means it will be violent because he won’t back down easily. The plan prevents popular support for a local Al Qaeda affiliate and stops an escalating civil war.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)King 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(James R. a specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East and a former Fulbright Fellow in Jordan and he holds an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University and has conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi community through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, 3/21, “The end for President Salih in Yemen” [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen>>http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)**__The regime of __**(%%)**__….__**__ of core American values.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration:none" %)__ __ === Two impacts to Yemeni hard landing === === First is proxy wars~-~- === **Hard landing in yemen will cause a Saudi iran proxy war** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)Bipartisan Policy Center 11(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:10.0pt" %)((% style="font-size:10.0pt" %)Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of StateAdmiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; text-decoration: none" %) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)Were the situation (% class="underline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)….(% class="underline" style="font-size:8.0pt" %) resultant lack of legitimacy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **That independently causes extinction** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua;mso-bidi-font-style:italic" %)**London**(%%)** 10 **(% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style:italic" %)(professor emeritus of (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)NYU, 6/23,** **“The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds>>http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)**// //** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)__The__(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)gathering(%%) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__storm in the __(%%)__….__(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)**__could lead to a nuclear exchange__**(% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)**__.__** (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)**And, a proxy war in Yemen spills over into broader middle east conflict** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)**Brown 11**(%%) (Stephen, a contributing editor for the Front Page Magazine and has a graduate degree in Russian and Eastern European history,4/5, “Losing Yemen” [[http:~~/~~/frontpagemag.com/2011/04/05/losing-yemen/>>http://frontpagemag.com/2011/04/05/losing-yemen/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)But it is(%%)__ (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)in(%%)__(% style="font-size: 8.0pt" %) the(%%)__ (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)northern Saada (%%)__(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)….(% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__ risk for the entire world.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Second is oil shocks~-~- === **And, continued Yemeni instability will collapse Saudi Arabia – spill over violence in northern border and refugees** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.0pt" %)**Horton 11**(%%) (% style="font-size:10.0pt" %)(Michael Horton is a Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. He also writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Digest, Islamic Affairs Analyst, and the Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Horton studied Middle East History and Economics at the American University of Cairo and Arabic at the Center for Arabic Language and Eastern Studies in Yemen. Michael frequently travels to Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, The Jamestown Foundation, “The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen”, http:~/~/global-security-news.com/2011/04/07/the-unseen-hand-saudi-arabian-involvement-in-yemen/, April 7, 2011) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;border:none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt:none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %)The future of Yemen is inextricably …. certainly worth remembering. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) **Specifically, causes unrest in oil rich eastern province** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)**Stratfor 4/21**(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(2011, “Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen,” April 21, 2011 | 0859 GMT, pg. http:~/~/www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110420-islamist-militancy-pre-and-post-saleh-yemen) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %)The real heavyweight in …. efforts toward the al-Houthi threat. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.5pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"; color:black;background:white" %) **This causes a massive global oil shock and production outages ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)**Atuanya 3/10**(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(2011, Dennis U. Atuanya Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector with degrees in geology and geophysics, “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. 11-13, [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty>>http://seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %)There is the possibility of a global(% style="background:white" %)__ __(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)__…__(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime; border: solid windowtext 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext 0.5pt; padding: 0in" %)__** possibly the "mother of all**__(% style="border:solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime;mso-shading:white" %)**."** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **The impact is global energy wars that end in extinction ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)King 8(% style="font-size:10.0pt" %) (Neil King, Jr. is a columnist for the wall street journal and a Researcher at the Center for New American Security, “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, july, pg. [[(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt" %)www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf>>http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)Many(%%) __commentators in ….__(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) and avoid the rash ones. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Terrorism Advantage = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **AQAP is the only terrorist threat —organizational structure, bomb-making capabilities, and global connections** (% class="MsoNormal" %) Frank J. **__Cilluffo__**, the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, **__and__** Clinton **__Watts__**, a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, **__6/24__**/11, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” http:~/~/www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)__AQAP is the only __(%%)__…. those of Al Qaeda’s__. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Three reasons only the plan solves AQAP threat === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~1. Hearts and Minds—** **Plan is key to reversing anti Americanism which is key to fighting AQAP through local support and prevention of recruitment** (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:7.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align: none;text-autospace:none" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Green 11(% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"MS Mincho~";color:#3C3C3C; mso-fareast-language:JA" %) (%%)(april, Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, [[http:~~/~~/fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/>>http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __It is becoming ….. the United States.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **2. Cover—** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **US re-aligning its stance in Yemen to engage protestors is key to removing cover for AQAP by driving it out of its safe havens and current US saleh support is making squo counter terror efforts ineffective** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)The Atlantic 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(march 3, “how the us can best help yemen,” [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; color: blue" %)__http:~~/~~/www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/__>>http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)How can the U.S. help chart …..(% style="border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt; padding:0in;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)__cover for its actions__(% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **2. Intelligence—** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **a. Cooperating with tribal leaders through the plan is key to creating the ties needed for effective intelligence gathering **(% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Knoetgen 11(% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __(% style="font-size:8.0pt; color:black;background:white" %)(Peter(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (%%)Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (% class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: 8pt; color: black; background: white; color: rgb(0, 101, 204)" %)http:~/~/www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil(% style="font-size:8.0pt; color:black;background:white" %)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;color:black;background:white" %)While efforts to combat the ….(% style="color:black;background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua;mso-shading:white" %) reciprocal assistance(% style="color:black;background:white" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **B. This cultural intelligence gathering is key to defeating AQAP by breaking terrorist cells and thwarting planned attacks** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Knoetgen 11(% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __(% style="font-size:8.0pt; color:black;background:white" %)(Peter(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (%%)Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (% class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: 8pt; color: black; background: white; color: rgb(0, 101, 204)" %)http:~/~/www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil(% style="font-size:8.0pt; color:black;background:white" %)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="color:black;background:white" %)__The importance …. proper main efforts.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** **AQAP will launch a nuclear attack before November 2012 as a part of their “October surprise” strategy which result in escalation prompted by the US** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Malone 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-fareast-language:JA" %)(David, Nonprofit Defense Consulting Organizer, "Future Attacks on America? Al Qaeda’s Next October Surprise, [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA" %)http:~~/~~/www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)>>http://www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:9.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"; color:black;background:white" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime; mso-shading:white" %)__Al Qaeda's__(% style="background:white" %)__ 20__(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)__08__(% style="background:white" %)__ __(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)__surge__(% style="background:white" %)__ …..__(% style="font-size: 6.0pt;background:white" %) of October Surprises and time-scaled terrorism. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:white" %)**~*~*~*~*~*~*This alone causes extinction** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:white" %)**__Wright 7__**(% style="mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;background:white" %) (% style="font-size:6.0pt;background: white" %)– New America Foundation senior fellow (Robert, 4/28, Planet Of The Apes, (% style="font-size: 6pt; background: white; color: rgb(33, 88, 148)" %)__http:~/~/select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html__(% style="font-size:6.0pt;background: white" %), AG) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %)(3) Terrorism. Alas, …..(% class="apple-style-span" style="font-size: 6.0pt;color:black" %) executive and its tool, the judiciary. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **And even an unsuccessful nuclear attack results in retaliation, which leads to extinction** (% class="tag" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-family: Times; " %)Ayson 10(% style="font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; " %)(Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld) (% class="Cards" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="Cards" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)But these two nuclear …..(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)unwilling to provide. (% class="MsoNormal" %)

=== no political capital === (% style="margin-left:.25in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" %) === a.(% style="font:7.0pt ~"Times New Roman~"" %) (%%)re-election concerns === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)Chicago tribune 10/12(%%) (2011, “barack obamas lonely presidency,” [[http:~~/~~/www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ct-oped-1012-page-20111012,0,4347142.column>>http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ct-oped-1012-page-20111012,0,4347142.column]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)Sure, (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime;mso-fareast-language: JA" %)Obama(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)barnstormed …. and "pre-compromised." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.0pt" %)** ** === Link inevitable— === === First, all of our thumpers directly affect skfta’s ability to pass === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)Kim 11(%%) (9/6, Sukhan Kim senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP "Pushing the FTA to the finish line" koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:7.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align: none;text-autospace:none" %) (% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"ＭＳ 明朝~";mso-fareast-language:JA" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime; mso-fareast-language:JA" %)__There have been__(%%)__ (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)….(% style="background: lime; mso-highlight: lime; border: solid windowtext 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext 0.5pt; padding: 0in" %) further distract from the FTA.(%%)__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Laundry list of reasons the link is inevitable— === === a. Obama pushing democracy assistance now === (% class="MsoNormal" %) 
(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family:Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin" %)Sheridan 9/25 (%%)(Mary Beth,- diplomatic correspondent for The Washington Post “Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries”. [[(% style="text-decoration: none; " %)http:~~/~~/community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mobile/?type=story&id=2016319063&st_app=ip_news_lite&st_ver=1.2)>>http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mobile/?type=story&id=2016319063&st_app=ip_news_lite&st_ver=1.2)]](%%)
 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)The lawmakers' reluctance …. laying the groundwork for a broader effort. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"ＭＳ 明朝~";mso-fareast-language:JA" %) === c. will spend PC with republicans on Dream Act === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)Obama 9/28(%%) (2011, white house press briefing, http:~/~/m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/28/remarks-president-open-questions-roundtable) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)MR. SIADE: Ladies and gentlemen, …. in a way that is humane and just. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === f. Jobs === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)The Atlantic 9/20(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi" %)**(2011,** [[(% style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: ~"Times New Roman~"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; font-size: 10pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/obamas-deficit-reduction-a-campaign-document-not-a-policy-plan/245381/>>http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/obamas-deficit-reduction-a-campaign-document-not-a-policy-plan/245381/]](% style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi" %) **(Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and the Economist.)** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none" %)** ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)After a day, I think it's safe …. equipment manufacturers and $5 billion out of the owners of corporate jets. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"ＭＳ 明朝~";mso-fareast-language:JA" %) === h. Solyndra
 === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)The Hill 9/2(%%) (Andrew. Correspondent. The Hill. [[(% style="text-decoration: none; " %)http:~~/~~/thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay)>>http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay)]](%%)
 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)House(%%) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)__Republicans__(%%)__ have …. There’ll be more hearings.”__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"ＭＳ 明朝~";mso-fareast-language:JA" %) === i. China bashing—top of docket === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)Washington Post 9/29(%%) (Greg, The Washington Post Blog Writer, "The other big jobs fight", [[(% style="text-decoration: none; " %)http:~~/~~/www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-other-big-jobs-fight/2011/03/03/gIQArfTX7K_blog.html>>http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-other-big-jobs-fight/2011/03/03/gIQArfTX7K_blog.html]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)The battle over the ….(% style="font-size:10.0pt" %)Keep an eye on this one. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"ＭＳ 明朝~";mso-fareast-language:JA" %) === k. econ policy—even small steps require capital === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)Philadelphia inquirer 11(% style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %) (Philedelphia Inquirer, “POINT: Don't expect miracles on job growth: Some steps could help, but don't expect miracles”, 9/8, [[(% style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: JA" %)http:~~/~~/articles.philly.com/2011-09-08/news/30130709_1_jobs-plan-american-economy-rare-tax>>http://articles.philly.com/2011-09-08/news/30130709_1_jobs-plan-american-economy-rare-tax]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %)Yet (%%)__Republicans say ….__(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %) to privatize Social Security. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No link—no congressional backlash to plan—consensus that action to stop aqap must be taken === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin" %)CSM 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-fareast-language:JA" %)(6.15, Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer, Christian Science Monitor, “US covert attacks in Yemen: A better template for the war on terror?”) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __The new campaign …..__(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-language:JA" %) be quite different.” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) DA has wide bipartisan support (% class="tag" %) Democracy Digest 10 (July 21^^st^^ 2010, “Bipartisanship is dead? Vin Weber Award Affirms Consensus on Advancing Democracy”) (% class="card" %) (% class="card" %) Joining the ranks of such …. freedom and democracy,” he said. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No spill over – especially on unrelated issues === (% class="MsoNormal" %) George **Edwards**__,__ Distinguished PolSci Professor at Texas A&M and leading presidential scholar,** __2k__, "**Building Coalitions," Presidential Studies Quarterly 30.1, pg. 70-1, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Besides not considering …. the president turn (% class="MsoNormal" %)

=== counterplan links to politics—congress funds NED actions === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-bidi-font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";mso-bidi-theme-font:major-bidi" %)Anderson 11(% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";color:black;background:#FFF1E0" %) (Tim, “cuba: Australian workers union tips its hat to Washington,” January, [[http:~~/~~/links.org.au/node/2122>>http://links.org.au/node/2122]]) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";color:black;background:#FFF1E0" %) (% style="background:white" %)The CFTU includes …. Obama has made no changes to the plan. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === doesn’t solve—counterplan aid will be rechanneled to continue to support the regime—empirically proven === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Ron Paul 3 (national endowment of democracy: paying to make enemies for America, October 11) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:white" %)The misnamed National …(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %) around the world."

=== EU counter terror fails === === a. ineffective and slow === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.0pt" %)**Bures 10**(%%) (Oldrich, “EU counter terrorism policy: security versus justice,?” [[http:~~/~~/www.inter-disciplinary.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/burespaper.pdf>>http://www.inter-disciplinary.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/burespaper.pdf]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Abstract: The ....EU’s Third Pillar as such (% class="MsoNormal" %) === b. can’t effectively gather intelligence === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.0pt" %)**Bures 10**(%%) (Oldrich, “EU counter terrorism policy: security versus justice,?” [[http:~~/~~/www.inter-disciplinary.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/burespaper.pdf>>http://www.inter-disciplinary.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/burespaper.pdf]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Although the post-9/11 ....(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %)via the European Parliament. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) EU assistance fails in Yemen and Yemeni’s don’t like it (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" %)Burke 10(%%) (Edward, Researcher at FRIDE “//Assessing Democracy Assistance: //Yemen” Fride, http:~/~/www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: aqua; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; text-decoration: none" %) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="background- initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: aqua; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; " %)EU funding for democracy(% class="underline" %) ....(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)for democratic standards.

= Plan = (% class="MsoNormal" %) === The United States federal government should substantially increase assistance to Shaykhs and political opposition parties for Yemen to foster good governance. === (% class="tag" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Stability Advantage = (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Yemen is on the brink of civil war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Khaleej Times 10/10(%%) (11, will saleh step down this time, [[http:~~/~~/www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2011/October/editorial_October19.xml§ion=editorial>>http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2011/October/editorial_October19.xml§ion=editorial]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:white" %)In any case,....(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) situation (% style="font-family: ~"Cambria~",~"serif~";mso-ascii-font-family:~"Times New Roman~";mso-hansi-font-family: ~"Times New Roman~"" %)
(%%)deteriorates further. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Regime collapse in Yemen is inevitable – status quo US support of Saleh means it will be violent because he won’t back down easily. The plan prevents popular support for a local Al Qaeda affiliate and stops an escalating civil war.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)King 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(James R. a specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East and a former Fulbright Fellow in Jordan and he holds an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University and has conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi community through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, 3/21, “The end for President Salih in Yemen” [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen>>http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)**__The regime of ....__**(%%)__ core American values.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration:none" %)__ __ === Two impacts to Yemeni hard landing === === First is proxy wars~-~- === === Hard landing in yemen will cause a Saudi iran proxy war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)Bipartisan Policy Center 11(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:10.0pt" %)((% style="font-size:10.0pt" %)Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of StateAdmiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; text-decoration: none" %) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)Were the situation ....(% class="underline" style="font-size:8.0pt" %) resultant lack of legitimacy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **That independently causes extinction** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua;mso-bidi-font-style:italic" %)**London**(%%)** 10 **(% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style:italic" %)(professor emeritus of (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)NYU, 6/23,** **“The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds>>http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)**// //** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)__The__(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)gathering(%%) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__storm....** a nuclear exchange**__(% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight: aqua" %)__**.**__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration:none" %)__ __ === (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)And, a proxy war in Yemen spills over into broader middle east conflict(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Brown 11(%%) (Stephen, a contributing editor for the Front Page Magazine and has a graduate degree in Russian and Eastern European history,4/5, “Losing Yemen” [[http:~~/~~/frontpagemag.com/2011/04/05/losing-yemen/>>http://frontpagemag.com/2011/04/05/losing-yemen/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)But it is(%%)__ (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)in(%%)__(% style="font-size: 8.0pt" %) the(%%)__ ....__(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %)other countries depend. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Middle east war causes extinction—regional geopolitics ensures escalation ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="apple-style-span" style="font-size:13.0pt;color:black" %)**Russell 9**(% class="apple-style-span" style="font-size:10.0pt;color:black" %) (% class="apple-style-span" style="font-size:8.0pt;color:black" %)(James, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East, in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission,(% class="apple-converted-space" style="font-size:8.0pt;color:black" %) [[(% class="apple-converted-space apple-converted-space" style="font-size: 8pt; color: black; font-size: 8pt; color: black; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.nps.edu>>http://www.nps.edu/]](% class="apple-style-span" style="font-size:8.0pt;color:black" %) academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)Strategic (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__stability in ....__(% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__ for the entire world.__ === (% class="underline" style="mso-ansi-font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %)~*~*~*~*Nuclear escalation guaranteed—(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun" %)A. Iran strikes Israel (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun" %)Cetron and Daniels 7 (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt; " %)(Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, (%%)"Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http:~/~/www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html) (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) Nuclear proliferation:....(% style="font-size: 10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__ nukes of its own__(% style="font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)__.__ (% class="Shrink" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; text-decoration: none" %)__ __ (% class="tag" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt" %)B. Pakistan (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun" %)Cetron and Daniels 7(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt; " %)(Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, (%%)"Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http:~/~/www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html) (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none" %) (% class="Shrink" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size:12.0pt" %)The (% class="underline" style="font-size: 12pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)most (% class="underline" style="font-size: 12pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)ominous...(%%) has yet to begin. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Second is oil shocks~-~- === === And, continued Yemeni instability will collapse Saudi Arabia – spill over violence in northern border and refugees === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.0pt" %)**Horton 11**(%%) (% style="font-size:10.0pt" %)(Michael Horton is a Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. He also writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Digest, Islamic Affairs Analyst, and the Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Horton studied Middle East History and Economics at the American University of Cairo and Arabic at the Center for Arabic Language and Eastern Studies in Yemen. Michael frequently travels to Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, The Jamestown Foundation, “The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen”, http:~/~/global-security-news.com/2011/04/07/the-unseen-hand-saudi-arabian-involvement-in-yemen/, April 7, 2011) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;border:none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt:none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %)The future of Yemen ....(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %) certainly worth remembering. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) === Specifically, causes unrest in oil rich eastern province === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)STRATFOR 4/21(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(2011, “Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen,” April 21, 2011 | 0859 GMT, pg. http:~/~/www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110420-islamist-militancy-pre-and-post-saleh-yemen) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %)The real heavyweight ....(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %) the al-Houthi threat. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:13.5pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"; color:black;background:white" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) === This causes a massive global oil shock and production outages === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Atuanya 3/10(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(2011, Dennis U. Atuanya Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector with degrees in geology and geophysics, “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. 11-13, [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt" %)http:~~/~~/seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty>>http://seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %)There is the possibility ...(% style="border: solid windowtext 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext 0.5pt; padding: 0in; background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)__** the "mother of all**__(% style="border:solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime;mso-shading:white" %)**."** (% class="MsoNormal" %) === The impact is global energy wars that end in extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~";background: lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)King 8(% style="font-size:10.0pt" %) (Neil King, Jr. is a columnist for the wall street journal and a Researcher at the Center for New American Security, “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, july, pg. [[(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt; font-size: 10pt" %)www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf>>http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)Many(%%) __commentators in...__(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %) avoid the rash ones. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="border:none windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in;padding:0in" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Terrorism Advantage = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **AQAP is the only terrorist threat —organizational structure, bomb-making capabilities, and global connections** (% class="MsoNormal" %) Frank J. **__Cilluffo__**, the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, **__and__** Clinton **__Watts__**, a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, **__6/24__**/11, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” http:~/~/www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)__AQAP is the only....__(%%)__ those of Al Qaeda’s__. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Three reasons only the plan solves AQAP threat === (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~1. Hearts and Minds—** === Plan is key to reversing anti Americanism which is key to fighting AQAP through local support and prevention of recruitment === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:7.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align: none;text-autospace:none" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Green 11(% style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"MS Mincho~";color:#3C3C3C; mso-fareast-language:JA" %) (%%)(april, Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, [[http:~~/~~/fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/>>http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __It is becoming increasingly ... against the United States.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **2. Cover—** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **US re-aligning its stance in Yemen to engage protestors is key to removing cover for AQAP by driving it out of its safe havens and current US saleh support is making squo counter terror efforts ineffective** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)The Atlantic 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(march 3, “how the us can best help yemen,” [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; font-size: 8pt; color: blue" %)__http:~~/~~/www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/__>>http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)How can the U.S.....(% style="border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt; padding:0in;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)__ __(% style="border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt; padding:0in;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)__cover for its actions__(% style="background-color: aqua; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; " %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) **2. Intelligence—** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **a. Cooperating with tribal leaders through the plan is key to creating the ties needed for effective intelligence gathering **(% style="color:black;background: white" %)__ __(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Knoetgen 11(% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __(% style="font-size:8.0pt; color:black;background:white" %)(Peter(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (%%)Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”(% class="apple-converted-space" %) [[(% class="apple-converted-space apple-converted-space" style="font-size: 8pt; color: black; background: white; color: rgb(0, 101, 204)" %)http:~~/~~/www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil>>http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil||target="_blank"]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;color:black;background:white" %)While efforts to ....(% style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: aqua; background- initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; " %) without reciprocal assistance(% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); " %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **B. This cultural intelligence gathering is key to defeating AQAP by breaking terrorist cells and thwarting planned attacks** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Knoetgen 11(% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __(% style="font-size:8.0pt; color:black;background:white" %)(Peter(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (%%)Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”(% class="apple-converted-space" %) [[(% class="apple-converted-space apple-converted-space" style="font-size: 8pt; color: black; background: white; color: rgb(0, 101, 204)" %)http:~~/~~/www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil>>http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil||target="_blank"]](%%)) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="color:black;background:white" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="color:black;background:white" %)__The importance of ... proper main efforts.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** === AQAP will launch a nuclear attack before November 2012 as a part of their “October surprise” strategy which result in escalation prompted by the US === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Malone 11(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-fareast-language:JA" %)(David, Nonprofit Defense Consulting Organizer, "Future Attacks on America? Al Qaeda’s Next October Surprise, [[(% style="font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; font-size: 8pt; mso-fareast-language: JA" %)http:~~/~~/www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)>>http://www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:9.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"; color:black;background:white" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime; mso-shading:white" %)__Al Qaeda's__(% style="background:white" %)__ 20__(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)__08__(% style="background:white" %)__ __(% style="background: white; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)__surge__(% style="background:white" %)__ ....__(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 8px; line-height: 11px; " %) and time-scaled terrorism. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:white" %)**~*~*~*~*~*~*This alone causes extinction** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:white" %)**__Wright 7__**(% style="mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;background:white" %) (% style="font-size:6.0pt;background: white" %)– New America Foundation senior fellow (Robert, 4/28, Planet Of The Apes, [[(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: white; font-size: 6pt; background: white; font-size: 6pt; background: white; color: rgb(33,88,148)" %)__http:~~/~~/select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html__>>http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html||target="_blank"]](%%), AG) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;background:white" %)(3) Terrorism. Alas, the ....(% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8px; line-height: 11px; " %) its tool, the judiciary. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **And even an unsuccessful nuclear attack results in retaliation, which leads to extinction** (% class="tag" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-family: Times, serif; " %)Ayson 10(% style="font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; " %)(Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld) (% class="Cards" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% class="Cards" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)But these two nuclear ....(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)r unwilling to provide. (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Solvency = (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Assistance to strengthen local governing institutions through plans good governance cooperation with tribal leaders and civil society groups is key === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)Center for American Progress 10(%%) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)(1/14, Sustainable development in pemen is possible, [[http:~~/~~/www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html>>http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %)Local governance (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)U.S.(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) .....(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %) priorities and solutions. (% class="MsoNormal" %)

YAff: Texas BK

Round #  1 Tournament: Shirley

vs:West Georgia DF

Judge: Nick Burr

Plan Text

USFG should substantially increase democratic assistance to Shiaks and political opposition party for Yemen to support existing political reform efforts. 

1ac Advantages

Stability

Role of Ballot

2ac Offense

Realism

Cede political

1ar Strategy

2AC Order

2ar Strategy

Perm

Cede political net benefit

Aff outweighs 

Yemen 1AC UNT

The United States federal government should substantially increase assistance to Shaykhs and political opposition parties for Yemen to foster political reform.

Stability Advantage

Despite signing the GCC deal in November, Saleh has not relinquished power which will propel the country into civil war unless the United States assists protestors

The Palestine Chronicle 12/29 (James Gundun is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst, editor of The Trench, White House Still Playing Saleh's Game, http://technorati.com/people/jamesgundun/#ixzz1iMU6M0pL)

Christmas weekend in Yemen … on the end of a grassroots campaign to remove him.

Regime collapse in Yemen is inevitable – status quo US support of Saleh means it will be violent because he won’t back down easily. The plan prevents popular support for a local Al Qaeda affiliate and stops an escalating civil war.

King 11 (James R. a specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East and a former Fulbright Fellow in Jordan and he holds an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University and has conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi community through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, 3/21, “The end for President Salih in Yemen” http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen)

The regime of Yemeni … American values.

Two impacts to Yemeni hard landing

First is proxy wars—

Hard landing in yemen fuels Saudi-Iran proxy war

Bipartisan Policy Center 11 (Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of StateAdmiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3)

Were the situation … lack of legitimacy.

This spills over into broader middle east conflict

Brown 11 (Stephen, a contributing editor for the Front Page Magazine and has a graduate degree in Russian and Eastern European history,4/5, “Losing Yemen” http://frontpagemag.com/2011/04/05/losing-yemen/)

But it is in the northern … countries depend.

Middle east war causes extinction—regional geopolitics ensures escalation

Russell 9 (James, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East, in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)

Strategic stability in … entire world.

****Nuclear escalation guaranteed—

A. Iran strikes Israel

Cetron and Daniels 7 (Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, "Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)

Nuclear proliferation: A … has nukes of its own.

B. Pakistan

Cetron and Daniels 7 (Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, "Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)

The most ominous nuclear … yet to begin.

Second is oil shocks--

Yemeni instability causes Saudi collapse—spill over violence and refugees

Horton 11 (Michael Horton is a Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. He also writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Digest, Islamic Affairs Analyst, and the Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Horton studied Middle East History and Economics at the American University of Cairo and Arabic at the Center for Arabic Language and Eastern Studies in Yemen. Michael frequently travels to Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, The Jamestown Foundation, “The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen”, http://global-security-news.com/2011/04/07/the-unseen-hand-saudi-arabian-involvement-in-yemen/, April 7, 2011)

Outwardly, Saudi … remembering.

Spills over into the oil rich east

STRATFOR 4/21(2011, “Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen,” April 21, 2011 | 0859 GMT, pg. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110420-islamist-militancy-pre-and-post-saleh-yemen)

The real heavyweight … al-Houthi threat.

Causes production outages and the mother of all oil shocks

Atuanya 3/10 (2011, Dennis U. Atuanya Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector with degrees in geology and geophysics, “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. 11-13, http://seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty)

There is the possibility …, possibly the "mother of all."

The impact is global energy wars that end in extinction

King 8 (Neil King, Jr. is a columnist for the wall street journal and a Researcher at the  Center for New American Security, “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, july, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf)

Many commentators in the …leaders take the wise steps and avoid the rash ones.

Saudi collapse tanks global economy

Gartenstein-Ross 11 (Daveed, Directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, May 23, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession)

Bin Laden long believed that … place that they could reach that they didn't think about."

Economic collapse causes extinction  

Brookings Institute 11 (Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe, chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome, expert in transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology, April–May 2011, “A Post-Secular World?,” Survival, vol. 53 no. 2, pp. 124, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2011/04_international_relations_merlini/04_international_relations_merlini.pdf)

Two neatly opposed scenarios … unbridled nationalism.

The plan’s material assistance geared towards political change sends a key signal to Saleh he doesn’t have US backing

Dorsey 11 (James, Senior Researcher at the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute, "Yemen's Saleh plays cat and mouse with Saudis and US," Al Arabiya, May 22, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/22/150075.html)

Its immediate prospects are … Yemen will be soft rather than hard power.

Terrorism Advantage

AQAP is the only terrorist threat —organizational structure, bomb-making capabilities, and global connections

Frank J. Cilluffo, the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and  Clinton Watts, a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 6/24/11, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm

AQAP is the only al … complete alignment of their goals with those of Al Qaeda’s.

Three reasons only the plan solves AQAP threat

1. Hearts and Minds—

Plan stops AQAP by building local support and decreasing recruitment but reversing anti Americanism

Green 11 (april, Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)

It is becoming increasingly … against the United States.

2. Cover—

Engaging protestors removes AQAP cover by driving it out of its safe havens

The Atlantic 11 (march 3, “how the us can best help yemen,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/)

How can the U.S. help chart … support and, ultimately, cover for its actions.

3. Intelligence—

Plan allows cultural intelligence gathering which is key to stop AQAP through local cooperation   
 Knoetgen 11 (Peter Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)

While efforts to combat the long-term …. assistance.

AQAP will carry out a bioterror attack

Daily mail 11 (wall street warned to step up security as al qaeda plans fresh wave of terror attacks on us,” 2/1, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1352683/Terrorismm-Wall-Street-warned-step-security-al-Qaeda-plans-US-attacks.html)

Wall Street bosses have been warned …, according to NBC.

Bioterrorism leads to extinction

Kellman 08 (Barry, Professor of Law, Director, International Weapons Control Center, International Human Rights Law Institute @ DePaul U., Futurist, May 2008, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat,”  http://www.britannica.com/bps/additionalcontent/18/31535413/Bioviolence-A-Growing-Threat)

Some experts … ignored said potential.

Retaliation ensures escalation

Wright 7 – New America Foundation senior fellow (Robert, 4/28, Planet Of The Apes, http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html, AG)

(3) Terrorism. Alas, the … tool, the judiciary.

And, AQAP will attack with a nuke in the next year

Malone 11 (David, Nonprofit Defense Consulting Organizer, "Future Attacks on America? Al Qaeda’s Next October Surprise, http://www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)

Al Qaeda's 2008 …and time-scaled terrorism. 

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction through retaliation

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld)

But these two … to provide.

Solvency

Democracy assistance to tribal leaders and political parties is k

Green, 11 - Soref fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and

stability operations. (Daniel, “Yemen May Be Next Regime to Fall,” 3/23,

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/03/23/yemen_may_be_next_regime_to_fall_99453.html)

* Actively engage … Houthis and tribal leaders.

.

AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful

Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]

It is clear that notwithstanding …. exercise the requisite caution.

This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war

Zarate 11 [Juan C. Zarate is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism from 2005 to 2009, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated … threat we face from terrorism.