Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase assistance to Shaykhs and political opposition parties for Yemen to foster political reform.
Democracy assistance to tribal leaders and political parties is k
Green, 11 - Soref fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and
stability operations. (Daniel, “Yemen May Be Next Regime to Fall,” 3/23,
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/03/23/yemen_may_be_next_regime_to_fall_99453.html)
Regime collapse in Yemen is inevitable, it’s just a question of whether it will be peaceful or not. The plan is key to showing Saleh he no longer has US support which ensures a peaceful transition that avoids civil war and prevents popular support for AQAP—a regional terrorist group, from growing . The Obama administration has already called for the Saleh administration to step down to no avail—they now need to materially side themselves with the protestors
James R. King, a specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East and a former Fulbright Fellow in Jordan and he holds an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University and has conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi community through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, 3/21/11, “The end for President Salih in Yemen” http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen
The regime of Yemeni President ….bold assertion of core American values.
And, the US re-aligning its stance in Yemen to engage protestors is key to removing cover for AQAP by driving it out of its safe havens
The atlantic 11 (march 3, “how the us can best help yemen,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/)
How can the U.S. help chart an …., ultimately, cover for its actions.
And, cooperating with tribal leaders through the plan is key to creating the ties needed for effective intelligence gathering
Peter Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil
While efforts to combat the long-term ….information without reciprocal assistance.
This cultural intelligence gathering is key to breaking terrorist cells and thwarting planned attacks
Peter Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil
The importance of …. proper main efforts.
And, finally, winning hearts and minds through democracy assistance is key to stopping AQAP
Novak 4 (Jane American journalist and political analyst specializing in middle eastern affairs, “yemen in the spring,” december 22,http://www.middleeasttransparent.com/old/texts/jane_novak_yemen_in_the_spring.htm)
That was also the year Freedom House ….and its tool, the judiciary.
Two reasons this is good—First is terrorism:
AQAP is the only terrorist threat —organizational structure, bomb-making capabilities, and global connections
Frank J. Cilluffo, the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and Clinton Watts, a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 6/24/11, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm
AQAP is the only al Qaeda affiliate …. goals with those of Al Qaeda’s.
And, theyre looking to attack the US soon
Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 6/10/11, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability”http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php
Saleh's departure after three ….and dangerous technologies."
AQAP attack ends in extinction— The scenario is Nuclear Terrorism:
AQAP will acquire uranium and launch a nuclear terror attack
Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 6/10/11, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability”http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php
Attacks targeting the ….survived without injury.
This will cause extinction
Wright 7 – New America Foundation senior fellow (Robert, 4/28, Planet Of The Apes, http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html, AG)
(3) Terrorism. Alas, the …. our mishandling of it.
And even an unsuccessful nuclear attack results in retaliation which leads to extinction
Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld)
But these two nuclear worlds—….or unwilling to provide.
And, even a small attack escalates due to fear based retaliation
Byman 7 – Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown (Daniel, September, US Counter-terrorism Options,http://cpass.georgetown.edu/Articles/August07/SurvivalArticle_DLB_Aug07.pdf, AG)
Yet terrorism scares people. …. a massive overreaction.
Second is Yemeni Civil War—
Yemen on the brink of civil war – action now is key
Washington Post, 5/23/11, “A long goodbye, and a test for Mr. Obama, from Yemen’s president” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-long-goodbye-and-a-test-for-mr-obama-from-yemens-president/2011/05/23/AFRPh39G_story.html
AS PART OF HIS new pro-democracy …. accepts the transition agreement.
Scenario one: Yemeni civil war causes Saudi-Iran Proxy wars
Bipartisan Policy Center 11 (Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of StateAdmiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3)
Were the situation to …. resultant lack of legitimacy.
Ends in extinction
London, professor emeritus of New York University, 6/23/10 [Herbert, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds]
The gathering storm …. lead to a nuclear exchange.
Scenario two: Yemeni civil war spills over into a broader middle east conflict
Frederick W. Kagan, author of the 2007 report Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq, is one of the intellectual architects of the successful "surge" strategy in Iraq. He is the director of the AEI Critical Threats Project and a former professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. His books range from Lessons for a Long War (AEI Press, 2010), coauthored with Thomas Donnelly, to the End of the Old Order: Napoleon and Europe, 1801-1805, also Associate Professor of Military History, 2001-2005; Assistant Professor of Military History, 1995-2001; U.S. Military Academy at West Point, also Ph.D., Russian and Soviet military history; B.A., Soviet and East European studies, Yale University, 1/20/10, “Yemen: Confronting Al-Qaeda, Preventing State Failure”http://www.aei.org/speech/100119
The prospect of ….. al Qaeda safe-haven.
Extinction—checks against escalation don’t apply to the middle east
Russell 9 (James, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East, in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)
Strategic stability in the ….. risk for the entire world.
Nuclear escalation guaranteed—
A. Iran strikes Israel
Cetron and Daniels 7 (Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, "Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)
Nuclear proliferation: A new arms …. has nukes of its own.
B. Pakistan
Cetron and Daniels 7 (Marvin J, President of Forecasting International and, Owen, Former Senior Editor of Omni Magazine, "Worst-Case Scenario: the Middle East", The Futurist, 9/1, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)
The most ominous nuclear …. effort has yet to begin.
US aid towards regime opposition groups key to prevent violent collapse
J. Dana Stuster, a former Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security and previously a Research Associate at Anacapa Sciences, is a writer living in Washington, DC, 5/23/11, “Should the U.S. Intervene in Yemen?” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/should-the-us-intervene-in-yemen/239235/1/
It is a dangerous ….which it could as time continues.
US aid towards regime opposition groups key to prevent violent collapse
J. Dana Stuster, a former Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security and previously a Research Associate at Anacapa Sciences, is a writer living in Washington, DC, 5/23/11, “Should the U.S. Intervene in Yemen?” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/should-the-us-intervene-in-yemen/239235/1/
It is a dangerous time .... could as time continues.