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UNLV 1AC
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Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf – failure to aid Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention
Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs, http://www.gulfinstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=148:blunder-in-bahrain-&catid=26:articles&Itemid=23
There is no …
negating Iranian propaganda.
Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization
WP 9/9, Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html
BAHRAIN HAS BECOME …
the crisis resumes.
That’s key to maintaining the 5th fleet
Cooley and Nexon 11—Alexander, associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, member of Columbia University's Institute for War and Peace Studies, Daniel Nexon, associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University, "Bahrain's Base Politics", Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#
Until the recent …after it is under way.
5th Fleet presence key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism
Goodspeed 11—Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/
The tiny oil-producing …engulfs the emirate.
And perception of credible Iranian deterrence key to international security alliances and US power
Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As of the … its commitments overseas.
5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony
Cropsey 10 – Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf
American maritime … slowly over decades.
Naval power independently solves great power wars
Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf]
No other …campaigns ashore.
Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace
Barnett 11 - Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
Events in Libya … Century now unfolding.
Advantage Two is Credibility—
Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements
Levine 11 – Mark, professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, "Here we go again: Egypt to Bahrain", Al Jazeera, Feb 18, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201121882356449949.html
It took … immediate past ?
Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war
Guardiano 11, John, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring
There is, … elsewhere. Now.
That’s key to solve global problems—builds coalitions for leadership and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars
Stanley 7—Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report,http://www.prod.sandia.gov/cgi-bin/techlib/access-control.pl/2007/070903.pdf
How important … threats effectively.
US credibility key to prevent Middle Eastern prolif
McInnis 5 (Kathleen, Coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, The Washington Quarterly, Summer, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East”, http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf)
Taking into … of their stability.
Nuclear Armageddon
The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html
Any Third … Biblical Armageddon.
Thus, the plan: The United States Executive should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain
Solvency
US explicit diplomacy key to constitutional monarchy and negotiated solutions—solves conflict and Sectarian war
Indyk & Stork 11 - Ambassador & Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution, Stork is a Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division @ Human Rights Watch
Official Transcript of a Project on Middle East Democracy Panel with Indyk & Stork: “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” Project on Middle East Democracy, U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 212-10, June 29, 2011, 9:00-11:00am, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf
Finally, Ambassador … it fails.
Constitutional Monarchy is a key avenue for reconciliation between the monarchy and protestors—American mediation spurs a middle ground solution
Abrams 11—Elliot, Senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush Administration, "The Situation in Bahrain is a Disaster and it may be too late for a compromise", March 17, Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/what-comes-next-in-bahrain-2011-3
So instead … usually are.
Plan key to quell sectarianism and shut out Iranian influence
Diwan 11—Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question?page=show
The rival … hard-line message.
Focus on language and discourse doesn’t shape the material world
Taft-Kaufman, 95 (Jill, professor, Department of Speech Communication And Dramatic Arts, at Central Michigan University, Southern Communication Journal, Spring, proquest)
The postmodern … fuel them.
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| 11/11/11 |
