Thus, the plan: The United States Executive should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain.
Bahrain’s deadlocked – National Dialogue failed due to one-sided US support of the Crown Prince. Continued stalemate will erupt in widespread sectarian violence
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
The few promising measures announced by the government have failed … for its decision to dismantle al-Wefaq, the Bahrain government swiftly reversed course.
Further radicalization entails full scale civil war
Shaikh, 11 - Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy (Salman, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” 3/23, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers)
While US and international attention is focused largely … a full blown civil war.
Must act now—It’s already beginning to escalate.
Kerr, 9/23/11 (Simon, Financial Times, “Clashes erupt in Bahrain ahead of by-elections,” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47e1bf48-e601-11e0-b196-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ZRcw1zs0
Clashes erupted across the outskirts of the … capital,which could mark a dangerous escalation.
ADVANTAGE ONE IS THE FIFTH FLEET
Escalation jeopardizes the Fifth Fleet even without civil war
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
Of the Arab countries in which political unrest … but it may be left with no choice given the current turmoil.
Naval power independently solves great power wars
Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf]
No other disruption is as … enable extended campaigns ashore.
5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony
Cropsey 10 – Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf
American maritime strategy has played a major role … sea power surrendered slowly over decades.
Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace.
Barnett 11 –
Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
Events in Libya are a further reminder for … setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.
5th Fleet presence key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism
Goodspeed 11—Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/
The tiny oil-producing state … if the political storm raging elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.
That goes nuclear, credible deterrence is vital
Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance, http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/
Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, … American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iran, which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.
Perception of credible deterrence in relation to Iran solidifies alliances and US power
Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As of the beginning of 2011, …live up to its commitments overseas.
US failure to mediate dialogue on reform will expand Iranian influence and radicalize Shia regionally
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
While it may be possible for the US … and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis
Expanding Iranian intrusion will destabilize Saudi Arabia – causes oil shocks and war
Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912
First, Iran would use a Bahrain platform … the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass.
Prices would hit $300 immediately
Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg. http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.
And still: in 2011, … for products containing oil derivatives.
Oil shocks risk extinction
Roberts 04 (Paul, Regular Contributor to Harpers and NYT Magazine, “The End of Oil: On The Edge of a Perilous New World”, p. 93-94)
The obsessive focus on oil … survival than terrorism or even war.
ADVANTAGE TWO IS CREDIBILITY
Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements
Levine 11 – Mark, professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, "Here we go again: Egypt to Bahrain", Al Jazeera, Feb 18, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201121882356449949.html
It took until Hosni Mubarak … from mistakes in the immediate past ?
Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war
Guardiano 11, John, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring
There is, after all, a democratic … in Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. Now.
That’s key to solve global problems—builds coalitions for leadership and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars
Stanley 7—Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report,http://www.prod.sandia.gov/cgi-bin/techlib/access-control.pl/2007/070903.pdf
How important is soft power, anyway? … will be necessary to address such threats effectively.
US credibility key to prevent Middle Eastern prolif
McInnis 5 (Kathleen, Coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, The Washington Quarterly, Summer, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East”, http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf)
Taking into consideration the potential … in these countries because of their stability.
Nuclear Armageddon
The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html
Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War … fought with 21st Century weaponry will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.
SOLVENCY:
Supporting genuine dialogue between the family and al-Wefaq creates space for reform and breaks from prior divide and conquer moves
Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)
Notwithstanding this intervention, … it is in the united states’ national interest.
US influence can create a useful roadmap—they will say yes if the US leads the process
POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf
Joe Stork spoke first, … with Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.
