Stanford » Khamphoune-Sonnenberg Aff

Khamphoune-Sonnenberg Aff

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  • Coast 1AC

    • Tournament: USC/Fullerton | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Thus, the plan: The United States Executive should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain.

       

      Bahrain’s deadlocked – National Dialogue failed due to one-sided US support of the Crown Prince.  Continued stalemate will erupt in widespread sectarian violence

      Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

       

      The few promising measures announced by the government have failed … for its decision to dismantle al-Wefaq, the Bahrain government swiftly reversed course.

       

      Further radicalization entails full scale civil war

      Shaikh, 11 - Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy (Salman, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” 3/23, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers)

       

      While US and international attention is focused largely … a full blown civil war.

       

      Must act now—It’s already beginning to escalate.

      Kerr, 9/23/11 (Simon, Financial Times, “Clashes erupt in Bahrain ahead of by-elections,” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47e1bf48-e601-11e0-b196-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ZRcw1zs0

       

      Clashes erupted across the outskirts of the … capital,which could mark a dangerous escalation.

       

       

      ADVANTAGE ONE IS THE FIFTH FLEET

       

      Escalation jeopardizes the Fifth Fleet even without civil war

      Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

       

      Of the Arab countries in which political unrest … but it may be left with no choice given the current turmoil.

       

      Naval power independently solves great power wars


      Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf]

       

      No other disruption is as … enable extended campaigns ashore.

       

      5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony 


      Cropsey 10 – Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

       

      American maritime strategy has played a major role … sea power surrendered slowly over decades.

       

      Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace.

      Barnett 11 –

      Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads


       

      Events in Libya are a further reminder for … setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

       

      5th Fleet presence key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism 


      Goodspeed 11—Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/

       

      The tiny oil-producing state … if the political storm raging elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

       

      That goes nuclear, credible deterrence is vital

      Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance, http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/

       

      Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, … American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iran, which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.

       

      Perception of credible deterrence in relation to Iran solidifies alliances and US power

      Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf



       

      As of the beginning of 2011, …live up to its commitments overseas.

       

      US failure to mediate dialogue on reform will expand Iranian influence and radicalize Shia regionally

      Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)

      While it may be possible for the US … and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis

       

      Expanding Iranian intrusion will destabilize Saudi Arabia – causes oil shocks and war

       

      Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912

       

      First, Iran would use a Bahrain platform … the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass. 


       

      Prices would hit $300 immediately

      Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]  * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

       

      And still: in 2011, … for products containing oil derivatives.

       

      Oil shocks risk extinction

      Roberts 04 (Paul, Regular Contributor to Harpers and NYT Magazine, “The End of Oil: On The Edge of a Perilous New World”, p. 93-94)

       

      The obsessive focus on oil … survival than terrorism or even war.

       

      ADVANTAGE TWO IS CREDIBILITY

       

      Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements 


      Levine 11 – Mark, professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, "Here we go again: Egypt to Bahrain", Al Jazeera, Feb 18, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201121882356449949.html

       

      It took until Hosni Mubarak … from mistakes in the immediate past ?

       

      Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war 


      Guardiano 11, John, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring

       

      There is, after all, a democratic … in Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. Now.

       

       

      That’s key to solve global problems—builds coalitions for leadership and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars


      Stanley 7—Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report,http://www.prod.sandia.gov/cgi-bin/techlib/access-control.pl/2007/070903.pdf 



       

      How important is soft power, anyway? … will be necessary to address such threats effectively.

       

       

      US credibility key to prevent Middle Eastern prolif


      McInnis 5 (Kathleen, Coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, The Washington Quarterly, Summer, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East”, http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf)


       

      Taking into consideration the potential … in these countries because of their stability.

       

       

      Nuclear Armageddon 


      The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html

       

      Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War … fought with 21st Century weaponry will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.

       

       

      SOLVENCY:

       

      Supporting genuine dialogue between the family and al-Wefaq creates space for reform and breaks from prior divide and conquer moves

      Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

      Notwithstanding this intervention, … it is in the united states’ national interest.

       

      US influence can create a useful roadmap—they will say yes if the US leads the process

      POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

       

      Joe Stork spoke first, … with Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.

       

       

       




01/11/12
  • UNLV - 1AC

    • Tournament: UNLV | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Cal PP | Judge:

    •  

      Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf – failure to aid Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention

      Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs,  

       

      There is no 

      negating Iranian propaganda.

       

       

      Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization

      WP 9/9, Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now,


       

      BAHRAIN HAS BECOME …

      the crisis resumes.

       

      That’s key to maintaining the 5th fleet  


      Cooley and Nexon 11—Alexander, associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, member of Columbia University's Institute for War and Peace Studies, Daniel Nexon, associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University, "Bahrain's Base Politics", Foreign Affairs, April 5,

       

      Until the recent …after it is under way.

       

      5th Fleet presence key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism 


      Goodspeed 11—Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post,

       

      The tiny oil-producing …engulfs the emirate.

       

      And perception of credible Iranian deterrence key to international security alliances and US power


      Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, 



       

      As of the … its commitments overseas.

      5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony 


      Cropsey 10 – Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January,

       

      American maritime  slowly over decades.

      Naval power independently solves great power wars


      Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, ]

       

      No other …campaigns ashore.

       


      Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace


      Barnett 11 - Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 

       

      Events in Libya … Century now unfolding.

       

       

      Advantage Two is Credibility—

      Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements 


      Levine 11 – Mark, professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, "Here we go again: Egypt to Bahrain", Al Jazeera, Feb 18,

       

      It took … immediate past ?

       

       

       

       

       

      Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war 


      Guardiano 11, John, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18,

       

      There is, … elsewhere. Now.

       


      That’s key to solve global problems—builds coalitions for leadership and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars


      Stanley 7—Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report, 



       

      How important … threats effectively. 

       


      US credibility key to prevent Middle Eastern prolif


      McInnis 5 (Kathleen, Coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, The Washington Quarterly, Summer, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East”, 

       

      Taking into … of their stability.

       


      Nuclear Armageddon 


      The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”,

       

      Any Third … Biblical Armageddon.

       

       


      Thus, the plan: The United States Executive should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain

       

       

      Solvency

      US explicit diplomacy key to constitutional monarchy and negotiated solutions—solves conflict and Sectarian war  
       
      Indyk & Stork 11 - Ambassador & Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution, Stork is a Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division @ Human Rights Watch
Official Transcript of a Project on Middle East Democracy Panel with Indyk & Stork: “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” Project on Middle East Democracy, U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 212-10, June 29, 2011, 9:00-11:00am, 

       

      Finally, Ambassador … it fails.


      Constitutional Monarchy is a key avenue for reconciliation between the monarchy and protestors—American mediation spurs a middle ground solution   


      Abrams 11—Elliot, Senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush Administration, "The Situation in Bahrain is a Disaster and it may be too late for a compromise", March 17, Business Insider, 

       

      So instead … usually are.

       

       

       


      Plan key to quell sectarianism and shut out Iranian influence  


      Diwan 11—Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd,

       

      The rival … hard-line message.

       

       

      Focus on language and discourse doesn’t shape the material world

      Taft-Kaufman, 95  (Jill, professor, Department of Speech Communication And Dramatic Arts, at Central Michigan University, Southern Communication Journal, Spring, proquest)

       

       The postmodern … fuel them.

       

       

       




01/11/12
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01/11/12

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