Observation 1 is Inherency:
The post-Saleh transition in Yemen is still uncertain- US assistance to Yemen is primarily security and economic
Glaser 7-27
[John, Assistant Editor at Antiwar.com and former Government Affairs, Foreign Policy Intern at Cato Institute, "Yemen’s Saleh Resilient as US Aid Flows Continue,” http://news.antiwar.com/2011/07/27/saleh-resilient-as-us-aid-flows-continue/]
Yemen’s embattled President Ali … doubt they were actually al-Qaeda.
The status quo guarantees extremist takeover at top levels of Yemen government- civil society reform has a net stabilizing effect for all aspects of regional stability
Makovsky et al ‘11
[Dr. Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director, Blaise Misztal, Foreign Policy Associate Director, Jonathan Ruhe, Policy Analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Fragility and Extremism in Yemen,” January, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf]
As the government’s policies …and its extremist narrative.
Advantage 1 is Al-Qaeda-
Yemen has become the new center of al-Qaeda operations which controls global networks- solving extremist takeover in Yemen now prevents further spread
Carafano 8-7
[James Jay Carafano is a senior research fellow for national security at the Heritage Foundation, “Yemen looks like al Qaeda's new heartland,” http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2011/08/yemen-looks-al-qaedas-new-heartland]
When al Qaeda was just a startup terrorist enterprise, … the Moammar Gadhafi problem in Libya.
AQAP, or al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, influence in Yemen is the only venue for international attacks
Brahimi 1-28
[Alia, Research Fellow at LSE Global Governance and a Senior Research Associate of the Changing Character of War programme at the University of Oxford, “Al Qaeda’s renewed focus on inflicting terrorist atrocities on British soil reflects a pervasive weakness in their strategy as their legitimating logic threatens to unravel,” http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/31985/1/blogs.lse.ac.uk-Al_Qaedas_renewed_focus_on_inflicting_terrorist_atrocities_on_British_soil_reflects_a_pervasive_weakn-323718.pdf]
In Yemen, Al-Qaeda in …himself has spoken out against.
Leaked classified documents prove that Al-Qaeda has advanced nuclear and CBW capabilities and are preparing for an attack- the impacts are devastating
Blake and Hope 2-2-11 [Heidi Blake is a reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards and was named Journalist of the Year, Feature Writer of the Year and Diversity Writer of the Year in the 2007 Guardian Student Media Awards and Christopher Hope is Business Correspondent, Industry Editor, Home Affairs Correspondent, Home Affairs Editor and is now Whitehall Editor at The Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb',” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html]
A leading atomic regulator has privately …to cause "extraordinary loss of life".
Disregard their generic impact defense- AQAP is the only legitimate threat- they’re uniquely sophisticated and organized, can make WMDs and is the epicenter of global connections
Cilluffo 6-24-11 [Frank J., the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and Clinton Watts, a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 6/24/11, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm]
AQAP is the only al Qaeda affiliate … goals with those of Al Qaeda’s.
Bio-weapons represent the single greatest risk of extinction
Ochs, 2
[Richard, BS in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University, with honors, BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE IMMEDIATELY ABOLISHED, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, …EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
A major attack draws in great powers and goes nuclear
Ayson ‘10 [Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld]
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons … chances of nuclear restraint.
The strike causes extinction- several reasons
Wright ‘07 [Robert, New America Foundation senior fellow, 4-28-07, “Planet Of The Apes,” http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/opinion/28wright.html]
(3) Terrorism. Alas, the negative-feedback loop … along with our mishandling of it.
Yemen unrest magnifies the impact- even if terrorism is generally unlikely, risk of a state collapse uniquely risks broad global nuclear crises
Makovsky et al ‘11 [Dr. Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director, Blaise Misztal, Foreign Policy Associate Director, Jonathan Ruhe, Policy Analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Fragility and Extremism in Yemen,” January, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf]
A s the events of 9/11 horrifically demonstrated… a preventive civilian-led response might be.
Combating AQAP gives US diplomatic credibility to stop broader terrorism
Smith et al ’11
[Adam, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Advisor, along with Task Force members Alexander Bezovics Joseph Corigliano Gillian Frackelton Linn Gracey Jonathan Humphrey Joelle Jackson Alexander Jeffers Juliana Mendel Grasilda Mincin Peter Muller Arya Nazari Matthew Paulhus Vanja Radunovic Allison Stone Matthew Wright Kristen Zipperer, “Countering al-Qaeda’s Ideology: Re-Asessing U.S. Policy Ten Years After 9/11,” https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1]
Total U.S. economic aid has increased from $12 billion …policies that are implemented.
Broad international cooperation is the best solution to global terrorism- US-led efforts are key to mobilize support
Millar and Rosand ‘07 [Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in Washington, DC and teaches graduate level courses on counterterrorism and foreign policy at The Johns Hopkins University and George Washington University. Eric Rosand is a senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight Against Terrorism,” http://www.cfr.org/content/thinktank/Building_Global_CT_Alliances.pdf]
Today’s terror networks typically …must be maintained and enhanced.
The plan is key to cripple al-Qaeda- they’ve invested in Yemen as their site of recovery and will gain influence now
Terrill ‘11
[W. Andrew, Middle East specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute, former Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East), “the Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security,” January, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536229&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%5Djap]
Additionally, Yemen’s government has waged … to an emerging insurgent movement.
Advantage 2 is Piracy:
Yemen is the focal point of piracy- lack of a stable transition allows pirates to take over Socotra, which is a key base for Gulf of Aden control-
Assl 7-8
-11 [Nima Khorrami Assl, security analyst at Transnational Crisis Project, London. His areas of interest and expertise include the Middle East, Political Islam and De-radicalisation, China, Caucuses, Energy Security and Geopolitics, “The Out of Towner,” http://www.al-majalla.com/en/Blogs/The_Out_of_Towner/article468603.ece?service=print]
That the current instability in Yemen can lead to a bloody …current crisis in Yemen is so puzzling.
Yemen is the last straw of regional shipping insecurity
BMI 3-23
-11 [Business Monitor International, “Yemen Crisis: The Issues At Stake,” http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2011/03/23/yemen-crisis-the-issues-at-stake/]
Global shipping route: Much of Asia-Europe … probably increase. The stakes are high.
Unchecked piracy in the Gulf of Aden threatens Armageddon- disrupts global trade, economic stability, causes extremism and international conflict
Hagilonian Investment ‘10
[Limited liability company, “Danger on the High Seas,” http://www.eadestination.com/danger-on-the-high-seas]
In the last decade piracy off the east …that they inflict on the world economy.
Global trade sustainability solves great power wars and collapse leads to more of them- empirical research is on our side
Hillebrand ‘10 [Evan E., Senior Economist for the Central Intelligence Agency and Professor of Diplomacy at the University of Kentucky, Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?, Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2]
A long line of writers from Cruce (1623) to Kant (1797) …for interstate war rises.
They will go nuclear
Friedberg and Schoenfeld ‘08 [Aaron, Professor of politics and international relations @ Princeton University & Visiting scholar @ Witherspoon Institute [AARON FRIEDBERG and GABRIEL SCHOENFELD, ?The Dangers of a Diminished America: In the 1930s, isolationism and protectionism spurred the rise of fascism.?, Wall Street Journal, ?The Dangers of a Diminished America?, OCTOBER 21, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]
In such a scenario there are shades …as the one we now face.
Unchecked instability and piracy in Yemen risks militarization of the region- risks great power conflicts
Gundun 7-7
-11 [James Gundun is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst, editor of The Trench, and member of Octopus Mountain. The Trench proliferates foreign policy information, providing quick reaction and deep analysis to the latest conflicts, “US-Chinese Hegemony Chokes Yemen’s Revolution,” http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-chinese-hegemony-chokes-yemens.html]
Although America hasn’t learned many … willingness to exploit it internationally.
Guarantees US involvement- military interests in Yemen threaten to draw in major nuclear players
Nazemroaya 1-10
-11 [Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is a Research Associate at the Centre for Research on Globalization Centre for Research on Globalisation, an independent non-profit research and media organization based in Montreal “The Next World War: The “Great Game” and the Threat of Nuclear War,” http://www.thetotalcollapse.com/the-next-world-war-the-great-game-and-the-threat-of-nuclear-war/]
According to the Christian Science Monitor… footsteps of Megiddo and Yathrib.
Thus the plan:
The United States Federal Government should provide substantial civil society support for the purpose of political party development of the Yemen youth movement.
Observation 3 is Solvency:
Yes, we have a solvency advocate- US support for the youth movement enables a stable transition and self-sufficiency to combat regional threats
Al-Shamahi 8-8
[Abubakr, British-Yemeni freelance journalist and is the editor of Comment Middle East commentmideast.com, “Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011847134790380.html]
The youth movement presents …for the country or the region.
A successful youth movement solves the Yemen economy, corruption and generates regional cooperation to solve resource crises
Al-Shamahi 8-8
-11 [Abubakr, British-Yemeni freelance journalist and is the editor of Comment Middle East commentmideast.com, “Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011847134790380.html]
A Yemen without the endemic corruption …AQAP and extremist ideology in general.
The youth movement is verifiable and is the best hope for a stable transition- further support from outside actors is key to successful organization
Omholt 7-21-11 [Mariann Markseth Omholt, London-based writer for The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, a nonprofit organization that trains journalists in areas of conflict, “Yemeni Youth Key To Real Change,” http://www.currentintelligence.net/news/2011/7/21/yemeni-youth-key-to-real-change.html]
Emerging protest groups predicted to become political … too unstable, to take this next step.
US is key- perceived as the most flexible donor and has unique ties to civil society networks
Burke ’10
[Edward, researcher at FRIDE, a European think tank for global action, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf]
Reflecting international optimism, USAID introduced a new ‘… activists in Yemen than European donors.
Increasing political party development is key to youth mobilization
Al-Akhali 7-7-11 [Rafat, co-founder of Resonate! Yemen initiative, “Youth in post-revolution Yemen: A view from the ground,” http://www.yementimes.com/DefaultDET.aspx?SUB_ID=36304]
Given these realities, there are several ways …advocacy and grassroots mobilization.[1]
Lack of productive channels for civic engagement will splinter youth organizations and make conflict inevitable- the plan is key to coordination and positive reform
Haddad 2-2
-11 [Salem, Yemen editor and a researcher and consultant on the Middle East and Horn of Africa for Muftah, an international affairs publication, holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Development Studies from Queen’s University in Canada and a Master’s of Science degree in Development Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, “Yemen’s Disaffected Youth & Vibrant Civil Society: Creating Avenues for Positive Social Change,” http://muftah.org/?p=718]
Unlike many of its neighbours, … young populations of the Maghreb.
The post-Saleh transition makes now a key time- the signal of strong US support builds governmental legitimacy and solves the alliance and terrorism
Green 4-18
-11 [Daniel Green is a Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/]
It is becoming increasingly clear that the departure of … central government institutions and make them more representative.
Status quo political turmoil causes Saudi Arabian exploitation- Gulf states won’t stabilize Yemen themselves, outside influence is key
Whitaker ’10
[Brian, seven-year Middle East editor for The Guardian, “Can Gulf states really help Yemen?” 2-10-11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/10/can-gulf-states-help-yemen]
Following last month's international …rulers are weighted against it.
