1AC
Observation 1 is Inherency:
The post-Saleh transition in Yemen is still uncertain- US assistance to Yemen is primarily security and economic
Glaser 7-27
[John, Assistant Editor at Antiwar.com and former Government Affairs, Foreign Policy Intern at Cato Institute, "Yemen’s Saleh Resilient as US Aid Flows Continue,” http://news.antiwar.com/2011/07/27/saleh-resilient-as-us-aid-flows-continue/]
Yemen’s embattled President Ali ………although some experts doubt they were actually al-Qaeda.
The status quo guarantees extremist takeover at top levels of Yemen government- civil society reform has a net stabilizing effect for all aspects of regional stability
Makovsky et al ‘11
[Dr. Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director, Blaise Misztal, Foreign Policy Associate Director, Jonathan Ruhe, Policy Analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Fragility and Extremism in Yemen,” January, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf]
As the government’s policies ….for al-Qaida and its extremist narrative.
Advantage 1 is AQAP-
Yemen has become the new center of al-Qaeda operations which controls global networks- solving extremist takeover in Yemen now prevents further spread
Carafano 8-7
[James Jay Carafano is a senior research fellow for national security at the Heritage Foundation, “Yemen looks like al Qaeda's new heartland,” http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2011/08/yemen-looks-al-qaedas-new-heartland]
When al Qaeda was just a startup …….. air-power "solution" to the Moammar Gadhafi problem in Libya.
AQAP influence in Yemen is the only venue for international attacks
Brahimi 1-28
[Alia, Research Fellow at LSE Global Governance and a Senior Research Associate of the Changing Character of War programme at the University of Oxford, “Al Qaeda’s renewed focus on inflicting terrorist atrocities on British soil reflects a pervasive weakness in their strategy as their legitimating logic threatens to unravel,” http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/31985/1/blogs.lse.ac.uk-Al_Qaedas_renewed_focus_on_inflicting_terrorist_atrocities_on_British_soil_reflects_a_pervasive_weakn-323718.pdf]
In Yemen, Al-Qaeda in ….himself has spoken out against.
Experts agree- another major WMD attack is coming soon- the magnitude of our impacts outweighs questions of probability
Mowatt-Larssen 4-19
[Rolph, Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and former Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, “A Career U.S. Intelligence Officer on Al Qaeda, Nuclear Terrorism and the Nuclear Threat,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rahim-kanani/a-career-us-intelligence-_b_850627.html]
Rahim Kanani: In assessing and analyzing the nuclear terrorist threat……. hands on sufficient fissile material.
CBWs are easy to acquire and Obama will retaliate- ineffective response capabilities kill deterrence
Graham and Talent ‘10
[Bob, Senator and chair of the Graham-Talent WMD Commission and James, Senator and vice chair of the Graham-Talent WMD Commission, “Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card, An Assessment of the U.S. Government’s Progress in Protecting the United States from Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism,” http://www.preventwmd.gov/publications/]
In December 2008, the Commission ……towards the threat of a large-scale biological weapons attack.
Bio-weapons represent the single greatest risk of extinction
Ochs, 2
[Richard, BS in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University, with honors, BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE IMMEDIATELY ABOLISHED, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, …..HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
Another major strike causes nuclear extinction
Sid-Ahmed ‘04 [Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
A nuclear attack by terrorists …..whole planet, we will all be losers.
Their impact defense doesn’t assume AQAP- the Yemen network has learned from Iraq and are becoming much more sophisticated
Terrill ‘11
[W. Andrew, Middle East specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute, former Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East), “the Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security,” January, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536229&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%5Djap]
There are also questions …..thereby strengthening the radicals.
Combating AQAP gives US diplomatic credibility to stop broader terrorism
Smith et al ’11
[Adam, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Advisor, along with Task Force members Alexander Bezovics Joseph Corigliano Gillian Frackelton Linn Gracey Jonathan Humphrey Joelle Jackson Alexander Jeffers Juliana Mendel Grasilda Mincin Peter Muller Arya Nazari Matthew Paulhus Vanja Radunovic Allison Stone Matthew Wright Kristen Zipperer, “Countering al-Qaeda’s Ideology: Re-Asessing U.S. Policy Ten Years After 9/11,” https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1]
Total U.S. economic aid has …….within the policies that are implemented.
The plan is key to cripple al-Qaeda- they’ve invested in Yemen as their site of recovery and will gain influence now
Terrill ‘11
[W. Andrew, Middle East specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute, former Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East), “the Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security,” January, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536229&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%5Djap]
Additionally, Yemen’s government has waged …….to an emerging insurgent movement.
Advantage 2 is Instability:
Further Yemen instability destabilizes Saudi Arabia, disrupts oil supplies, undermines global shipping lanes and causes terrorism
Lister 6-3
[Tim, Executive Editor at CNN, “Why we should care about Yemen,” http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-03/world/yemen.matters_1_houthis-president-ali-abdullah-saleh-aden?_s=PM:WORLD]
Yemen's oil potential has turned …..a month, from now is an open question.
Oil shocks cause nuclear war amongst the great powers
Qasem ‘07
[Islam Yasin Qasem, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Politics and Social Sciences at the University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF) in Barcelona, MA in International Affairs from Columbia, July 9, 2007, “The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage,” online: http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm]
If the conflict-ridden and oil-rich ……which is already in the making.
Saudi Arabian instability independently causes Iran to ramp up aggression
Friedman 3-8
[George, founder, chief intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor, “The Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/03/08/bahrain_and_the_battle_between_iran_and_saudi_arabia_99429.html]
The largest target of all is…… Saudis clearly are uneasy in the extreme.
That causes nuclear war
UPI ‘09 [United Press International, “Saudi-Yemen conflict sharpens region's rivalries” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/12/01/Saudi-Yemen-conflict-sharpens-regions-rivalries/UPI-23441259705297/]
If the U.S. initiative to solve …..fighting in Yemen gets worse and drags in others.
Continued Yemen civil war makes all impacts worse- encourages regional interventions
Boucek ’10
[Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on regional security challenges, “Yemen: On the Brink,” April, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/war_in_saada.pdf]
The fighting in Saada ………..and the difficulty in delivering supplies to those most affected.
Thus the plan:
The United States Federal Government should provide all necessary civil society support for the Yemen youth movement.
Observation 3 is Solvency:
Yes, we have a solvency advocate- US support for the youth movement enables a stable transition and self-sufficiency to combat regional threats
Al-Shamahi 8-8
[Abubakr, British-Yemeni freelance journalist and is the editor of Comment Middle East commentmideast.com, “Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011847134790380.html]
The youth movement presents ……….not bode well for the country or the region.
A successful youth movement solves the Yemen economy, corruption and generates regional cooperation to solve resource crises
Al-Shamahi 8-8-11 [Abubakr, British-Yemeni freelance journalist and is the editor of Comment Middle East commentmideast.com, “Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011847134790380.html]
A Yemen without the endemic …………i economy would also severely limit support for AQAP and extremist ideology in general.
US is key- perceived as the most flexible donor and has unique ties to civil society networks
Burke ’10 [Edward, researcher at FRIDE, a European think tank for global action, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf]
Reflecting international optimism, USAID ……………activists in Yemen than European donors.
Lack of productive channels for civic engagement will splinter youth organizations and make conflict inevitable- the plan is key to coordination and positive reform
Haddad 2-2-11 [Salem, Yemen editor and a researcher and consultant on the Middle East and Horn of Africa for Muftah, an international affairs publication, holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Development Studies from Queen’s University in Canada and a Master’s of Science degree in Development Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, “Yemen’s Disaffected Youth & Vibrant Civil Society: Creating Avenues for Positive Social Change,” http://muftah.org/?p=718]
Unlike many of its neighbours, …………amongst the young populations of the Maghreb.
The post-Saleh transition makes now a key time- the signal of strong US support builds governmental legitimacy and solves the alliance and terrorism
Green 4-18-11 [Daniel Green is a Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/]
It is becoming increasingly clear that the ……….strengthen central government institutions and make them more representative.
Status quo political turmoil causes Saudi Arabian exploitation- Gulf states won’t stabilize Yemen themselves, outside influence is key
Whitaker ’10 [Brian, seven-year Middle East editor for The Guardian, “Can Gulf states really help Yemen?” 2-10-11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/10/can-gulf-states-help-yemen]
Following last month's international……….., though, the interests of their rulers are weighted against it.
