2NR
CP
Politics
Case
2nc
T
Tradeoff
China - percption
CP
Solvency
Adv2
Adv1
1NR – Kick K, ans theory, Politics
Disease risks extinction and the impact is quick
Yu ‘09 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate]
In the past, humans have indeed fallen
AND
into a human-viable strain (10).
CP avoids the kiss of death takeouts:
Troy Stangarone & Greg Scarlatoiu, 2011 (Director of Congressional Affairs for the Korea Economic Institute & Director of Public Affairs and Business Issues for the institute, June 2011, “After the Arab Spring: A Role for Northeast Asia?”
http://www.globalasia.org/V6N2_Summer_2011/Troy_Stangarone&Greg_Scarlatoiu.html)
With the United States’ and Europe’s resources stretched
AND
play an important role in the region’s transition.
(--) US soft power trades-off with South Korean soft power:
Byambakhand Luguusharav, 2011 (MA @ Central European University Department of International Relations and European Studies, Soft Power in the Context of South Korea, www.etd.ceu.hu/2011/luguusharav_byambakhand.pdf)
In the early twenty-first century,
AND
others through its culture, especially popular culture.
(--) US soft power trades off with other East Asian nations’ soft power:
Byambakhand Luguusharav, 2011 (MA @ Central European University Department of International Relations
and European Studies, Soft Power in the Context of South Korea, www.etd.ceu.hu/2011/luguusharav_byambakhand.pdf)
The United States is the most important player
AND
to the United States to finish their studies.”
AT: US cred
No country will ever turn away from US commitment – even if they are tempted, they know they need a superpower
Alterman 11
(Jon, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf
Beneath the surface, however, is an
AND
at the same time no alternative to it.
No credibility spillover- each area is specific, lack of commitment in one area doesn’t affect others
Paul K. MacDonald 11, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College, and Joseph M. Parent, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, Spring 2011, “Graceful Decline?: The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4, p. 7-44
Second, pessimists overstate the extent to whicha
AND
the strength of a commitment in another area.
South Korea uniquely suited to solve for Egypt:
Troy Stangarone, 10/21/2011 ( Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “South Korea’s Arab Spring Role?” http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/21/south-korea%E2%80%99s-arab-spring-role/)
At the same time, much like Egypt
AND
could share its lessons from this difficult process.
South Korea has experience in institution-building and governance:
Troy Stangarone & Greg Scarlatoiu, 2011 (Director of Congressional Affairs for the Korea Economic Institute & Director of Public Affairs and Business Issues for the institute, June 2011, “After the Arab Spring: A Role for Northeast Asia?”
http://www.globalasia.org/V6N2_Summer_2011/Troy_Stangarone&Greg_Scarlatoiu.html)
With Seoul’s G-20 effort to become
AND
from the perspective of the G-20.
2NC Reunification
A. CP is key to effective Korean reunification
Troy Stangarone, 10/21/2011 ( Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “South Korea’s Arab Spring Role?” http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/21/south-korea%E2%80%99s-arab-spring-role/)
A successful transition and stability in the Middle
AND
Middle East for when reunification finally takes place.
Key to peace in the region
Youngho Kim, 2003 (Department of Political Science, Sungshin Women’s University, July 12, 2003, The Great Powers in Peaceful Korean Reunification, web.sungshin.ac.kr/~youngho/data/pub-GreatPowers.doc)
Despite the striking reversal of the historical
AND
great powers as well as the two Koreas.
Impact is nuclear extinction
Peter Hayes and Michael Hamel-Green, 2009 ( Professor of International Relations, RMIT University, "The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia," The Asia-Pacific Journal, 50-1-09, December 14, 2009, http://www.japanfocus.org/-Michael-Hamel_Green/3267)
At worst, there is the possibility of
AND
a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.
SCAF corruption prevents solvency- they want to control the economy and block civil society groups
Mahmood 9-1-11 [Hina, development economist and freelance journalist in New York, “Revolution in reverse,” http://www.dawn.com/2011/11/01/revolution-in-reverse.html]
THE international community has hailed Tunisia’s recent elections
AND
would have a large advantage over their opponents.
There is no SCAF honor system- they’ll just circumvent the new government even in the face of instability
Nisman 12-11-11 [Daniel Nisman works for Max Security Solutions, a risk consulting company based in the Middle East, “Egypt elections: The SCAF's Window of Opportunity?” http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=49449]
With more than one month to go before
AND
in the balance- who will blink first?
USAID can’t solve- legal constraints kill solvency
Strasser 5-7-11 [Max, News Editor at Al Masry Al Youm, “Egypt warns of foreign meddling as US pushes on with democracy programs,” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/474767]
The cable, which was released in June
AND
of some at the Ministry of International Cooperation.
More evidence-
A. They don’t trust the US because of Mubarak flip flops and question our motives
Bill Lindner, writing for the Islam Times, “Seeking Independence From American Influence, Egyptians overwhelmingly Reject U.S. Aid,” 7/12/2011, http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcaayna.49nym1gtk4.html
After activists complained that seeking loans from the
AND
. aid a sign of things to come?
B) They know the SCAF will target them
Leila Fadel and Ernesto Londono, staff writers for the Washington Post, “Military stokes xenophobia in Egypt,” 7/30/2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/military-stokes-xenophobia-in-egypt/2011/07/28/gIQAFnGjjI_story.html
Facing mounting challenges and spreading unrest, Egypt’s
AND
there’s a risk of being treated as suspect.
Pitt RR Round 1 Block Dem
Alternate cause to instability- religious infighting
Berman 6-13-11 [Ilan, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, “BERMAN: High cost of stability in Egypt,” http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/13/high-cost-of-stability-in-egypt/]
Religious frictions, for example, are on
AND
putting it among the world’s worst religious violators.
Sudanese instability makes Egyptian unrest inevitable
Borkan 8-2-11 [Brett, Daily News Egypt, “Egypt's own instability worsens its blow from creation of South Sudan,” http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/egypt/egypts-own-instability-worsens-its-blow-from-creation-of-south-sudan.html]
For Egypt, the recent creation of the
AND
, long-term impacts on the country.
No Indo Pak No escalation
Khan, staff writer for Indian Muslims, 2009
(M Shamsur Rabb, “Price of an Indo-Pak War,” Indian Muslims, http://indianmuslims.in/india-pakistan-war-price/) JBA
Let us turn to unprecedented casualty in case
AND
via cooperation, or persecution of terror culprits.
No risk of war, regardless of who gains power- fears of international backlash
Walt 1-31-11 [Stephen, Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University, “A realist policy for Egypt,” http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/31/a_realist_policy_for_egypt]
In fact, change in Cairo might not
AND
.S. military aid was cut off.
Egypt will never attack Israel- they know their limitations
Friedman 2-14-11 [George, Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR, “Egypt: The Distance Between Enthusiasm and Reality,” http://afgazad.com/Zabanhaye-Eropaei/021811-Egypt-The-Distance-Between-Enthisiasm-and-Reality%5B1%5D.pdf]
The Egyptian government is hardly in a position
AND
as with Israel — will remain in effect.
No risk of escalation, even from Hamas
Harel and Isaacharoff 10-30-11 [Amos Harel is one of Israel's leading media experts on military and defense issues. He has been the military correspondent and defense analyst for Haaretz for the last 12 years, Avi Issacharoff has been the Palestinian and Arab Affairs Correspondent for Haaretz since 2005, “Hamas seems wary of escalation with Israel, despite increased rocket fire,” http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/hamas-seems-wary-of-escalation-with-israel-despite-increased-rocket-fire-1.392660]
Let's start with the conspiracy theories: The
AND
rockets, but only for a limited period.
No escalation impact- empirics
Yglesias, 2007
[Matthew Yglesias is an Associate Editor of The Atlantic Monthly, “Containing Iraq,” The Atlantic, 12 Sep 2007, http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/containing_iraq.php]
Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on
AND
the desert hunting a possibly mythical terrorist organization.
1nr
Aid now
FY 2012 budget cut overall foreign assistance
MFAN 12/19
(Modernizing Foreign Assistance Network. “MFAN Statement: Congress Avoids Catastrophic Aid Cuts, Advances Reform in FY12 Budget” http://www.modernizeaid.net/2011/12/19/mfan-statement-congress-avoids-catastrophic-aid-cuts-advances-reform-in-fy12-budget/)
We are pleased that Congress avoided making catastrophic
AND
House Committee-passed version of the bill.
Previous aid increases were popular because they were part of an Omnibus bill—the plan is stand alone and hence more contentious:
Kemal Derviş, 1/6/2012 (Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development, “ Better than Expected U.S. Support for Global Development,” http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0106_us_global_ development_dervis_kharas.aspx)
It probably also helped that the foreign
AND
spending issues in the bill loomed much larger.
OV
Backlash against the plan turns solvency- causes recipients will look elsewhere
Laksmana ’10 [Evan, Researcher, CSIS in Jakarta and Visiting Associate Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, Sept. 17, “Thinking beyond Kopassus: Why US Security Assistance to Indonesia Needs Recalibrating,”http://cogitasia.com/thinking-beyond-kopassus-why-us-security-assistance-to-indonesia-needs-recalibrating/]
Secondly, domestic politics in Washington has traditionally
AND
Russia, the Netherlands, and South Korea.
Turns middle east stability
Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE), Мarch 2011, “analytical report by the russian Group of the Valdai international discussion club”, http://vid-1.rian.ru/ig/valdai/US-Russia%20relations_eng.pdf
Without close friendly • cooperation with Russia (
AND
wars will look like an even heavier defeat.
Resource depletion risks extinction:
Michael T. Klare, 2008 (professor of peace and security studies @ Hampshire College, 5/1/2008, http://www.thenation.com/article/new-geopolitics-energy, “ The New Geopolitics of Energy,”)
These and other efforts by Russia and China
AND
and a better chance at overcoming global warming.
Uniqueness Wall
Congress will lift Jackson-Vanik now:
Tom Barkley, 1/19/2012
(“US Seen Lifting Trade Restrictions On Russia,” http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-seen-lifting-trade-restrictions-on-russia-20120119-01370)
WASHINGTON -- A senior World Trade Organization official
AND
," Osakwe told the Washington International Trade Association.
Despite resistance—Congress will lift Jackson-Vanik—prefer our evidence it takes their resistance into account:
Tom Barkley, 1/19/2012
(“US Seen Lifting Trade Restrictions On Russia,”
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-seen-lifting-trade-restrictions-on-russia-20120119-01370)
In 1974, the U.S.
AND
expressed confidence that Congress will back the move.
Jackson-Vanik will be lifted now:
RIA Novosti, 1/20/2012
(“U.S. Likely to Lift Russia Trade Restrictions,” http://en.ria.ru/business/20120120/170860103.html)
The United States Congress is considered likely to
AND
relations,” with Russia, Dow Jones said.
(--) Russia will graduate from Jackson-Vanik this year:
William J. Burns, 1/16/2012 (Deputy Secretary, US State Department http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1201/S00293/interview-with-kommersants-elena-chernenko.htm)
We want to strengthen relations not just between
AND
Russia’s graduation from Jackson-Vanik this year.
Top of the docket
Obama will push for PNTR with Russia during the first quarter of this year:
Tom Barkley, 1/19/2012 (“US Seen Lifting Trade Restrictions On Russia,”
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-seen-lifting-trade-restrictions-on-russia-20120119-01370)
On the day WTO members accepted Russia's bid
AND
and protections as competitors in trade with Russia.
Obama will push to end Jackson-Vanik:
Natalya Kovalenko, 1/18/2012 (staff writer, “Sergei Lavrov answers reporters' questions,”
http://english.ruvr.ru/2012/01/18/64111459.html)
"The lifting of the Jackson-Vanik
AND
initiate congressional proceedings aimed at repealing this anachronism."
Hold all of their link UQ to a very high threshold---issues don’t cost PC until they’re at the finish line---if they can’t cite a bill discount them
Kevin Drum, 3/30/2010 (political blogger, Mother Jones, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner, “Immigration Coming Off the Back Burner?”)
Not to pick on Ezra or anything,
AND
Maybe not. But they will be soon.
(--) Obama has much more political capital than Congress:
Frank James, 1/18/2012 (staff writer, “Keystone: Dead Pipeline Lives On As Election-Year Issue,”
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/01/18/145410841/keystone-dead-pipeline-lives-on-as-election-year-issue)
Obama may have reason for optimism since he
AND
45 percent while Congress is at 11 percent.
Despite holding himself out as a moderate--Graham has produced zero legislative triumphs:
Rhiannon Fionn-Bowman, 7/6/2010 (staff writer, “The powerful Sen. Graham”
http://clclt.com/theclog/archives/2010/07/06/the-powerful-sen-graham)
Sunday, in a five-page spread
AND
bipartisan bend has produced no "legislative triumph."
More evidence…Graham’s deal-making efforts have produced zero legislative successes:
Robert Draper, 7/4/2010 (“ Lindsey Graham, This Year’s Maverick,” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/magazine/04graham-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all)
Two weeks ago, I found Graham
AND
ideology and not enough practical problem-solving.”
Environmental issues prove—Graham is weak:
States News Service, 1/6/2012 (“OUT OF GAS: THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMEMENT IS RUNNING ON EMPTY,” http://www.power-eng.com/news/2012/01/1576680305/out-of-gas-the-environmental-movemement-is-running-on-empty.html)
In late 2010 Al Gore offered three reasons
AND
preceding five years had floundered in the Senate.
(--) No link turns: scaling back democracy assistance has cost Obama no political capital:
Tara McKelvey, 2009 (December 7, “Is Democracy a Dirty Word?”
http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=is_democracy_a_dirty_word)
Obama’s scaled-back approach to democracy promotion
AND
United States should help establish democracies in other countries
(--) Aid to Egypt is controversial—politicians have tolerated small amounts but lawmakers want to trim the deficit:
Jeremy Sharp 8/23/2011 (Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs for the Congressional Research Service, "Egypt in Transition" http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)
Although the Egyptian government has expressed its gratitude
AND
the private sector in Egypt and Tunisia).11
(--) Democracy assistance to Egypt now kills political capital:
Democracy Digest, 8/17/2011 (“‘Concerted effort’ by Egypt’s military to deny democrats assistance,”
http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/concerted-effort-by-egypts-military-to-deny-democrats-assistance/)
The current controversy over democracy assistance in Egypt
AND
to discourage the American government from giving it.”
(--) And demonization – aid will be billed as assistance to terrorists by conservatives:
James Miller, 2011 (May 20, 2011, “Obama, the Middle East, and Domestic Politics,”
http://www.dissectednews.com/2011/05/obama-the-middle-east-and-domestic-politics.html)
And the President tried to quell fears about
AND
a strengthening of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
A2: Rels Resilient
(--) Ending Jackson-Vanik necessary for a full re-set in relations—it has a massive symbolic effect and is the litmus test for relations:
Finlay Lewis, 8/10/2008 (Congressional Quarterly Weekly, http://www.ncsj.org/AuxPages/081009CQ_Jackson-Vanik.shtml, “Russia Longs to Graduate At the Top of Trade Class”)
President Obama has repeatedly stressed that he intends
AND
.S.-Russia relationship,” he said.
(--) US-Russian relations remain fragile and prone to risks:
Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE), Мarch 2011, “analytical report by the russian Group of the Valdai international discussion club”, http://vid-1.rian.ru/ig/valdai/US-Russia%20relations_eng.pdf
1.2. However, the U
AND
on the political positions of the Obama administration.
(--) US-Russian relations are fragile—new events can cause them to downgrade:
Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE), Мarch 2011, “analytical report by the russian Group of the Valdai international discussion club”, http://vid-1.rian.ru/ig/valdai/US-Russia%20relations_eng.pdf
3.2.8. Therefore,
AND
new-old» foreign-policy course.
Reallocations still cause a budget fight
Stone ‘11. [Andrea, senior correspondent Huffington Post, “Obama Middle East Speech: President Will Announce Billions in Economic Aid to Egypt, Tunisia” Huffintton Post -- 5/18 -- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html]
The president’s speech will focus largely on the
AND
surface with similar objections to erasing Egypt's debt.
