First is Inherency
Democracy in Yemen collapsing. The security situation is deteriorating and elections are being postponed
Hill 10 [Ginny, Chatham House Briefing Paper, “Yemen: Fear of Failure”, January 2010, http://www.nrc.ch/8025708F004CE90B/(httpDocuments)/E39C81E78847A37FC12576F500684B52/$file/CHATHAM_Yemen_FearOfFailure_January2010.pdf]
In the 14 months since the first edition
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spotlight on al Qaeda’s latest ‘safe haven’.
Current US policy focus of anti-terrorism needs to shift to government and democracy assistance
Boucek 11 [Dr. Christopher, Congressional Testimony “U.S. Policy in Yemen”, The Carnegie Endowment, July 19, 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0719_testimony_boucek.pdf]
In large part, U.S.
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security will come when conditions in Yemen improve.
This leads to the plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its assistance for local governance training programs, civil society groups, and the judicial system.
Second, here's how we'll solve:
First, we'll solve by teaching the Yeminis to help themselves
Boucek 11 [Dr. Christopher, Congressional Testimony “U.S. Policy in Yemen”, The Carnegie Endowment, July 19, 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0719_testimony_boucek.pdf]
Developments in Yemen are of critical importance to
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.S. security and bolster Yemeni stability.
Second, our plan changes the military-centric focus that has failed for over a decade
Clark 11 [Ashley, Press Secretary Bipartisan Policy Center, Calls on U.S. to Give Yemen Governance Assistance Not Just Military Aid, BPC Releases Case Study on Yemen’s Security Risks and Recommendations for U.S. Policy
March 3, 2011http:www.bipartisanpolicy.org/news/press-releases/2011/03/bipartisan-policy-center-calls-us-give-yemen-governance-assistance-not-j]
Washington, DC—The Bipartisan Policy Center’s
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should fall, the future is wide open.”
Third, we solve for internal conflict by reforming Yemen's government
Campbell 10 [Leslie, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute, “Yemen on the Brink: Implications for U.S. Policy,” U.S. House of Representatives, http://www.ndi.org/files/Les_Campbell_Yemen_Testimony_HFAC.pdf, Feb 3]
While democratic institutions in Yemen must be part
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should include allowances for verifiable, independent audits.
The first advantage is beating AQAP
We are on the tipping point – a successful Arab spring will crush Al-Qaeda, failure will lead to Al-Qaeda take over
Zarate & Gordon 11
(Juan – Senior Adviser CSIS; David – Program Manager CSIS; The Battle for Reform with
Al-Qaeda; Washington Quarterly; 34:3 pp. 103122)
That salvo in the rhetorical battle for reform
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do all that it can to seize it.
AQAP has become the most active terrorist cell and biggest threat to the United States and is rapidly gaining a foothold in Yemen.
Boucek 11 [Dr. Christopher, Congressional Testimony “U.S. Policy in Yemen”, The Carnegie Endowment, July 19, 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0719_testimony_boucek.pdf]
Since its creation in January 2009, the
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ability to fully establish control is not known.
AQAP intent on attacking US targets and escalating violence into spectacular attacks
Boucek 11 [Christopher, writing for The Hill, “Alarming Reality in Yemen”, March 9, 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/09/alarming-reality-in-yemen/6s7]
Because of the government’s inability to control its own territory, the local al-Qaeda affiliate—al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)—has found in Yemen the space it craves to plot and plan attacks.
Indeed, as I testified last week before the House Homeland Security Committee, AQAP is now the greatest single terrorist threat to the United States.
Just look at the evidence of the last
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cycles this knowledge back into its operational planning.
And, such an attack would lead to a horrible US invasion
Terrill 11 [Andrew, Phd. Fellow for the Strategic Studies Institute. Retired U.S. Army Reserve Liutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer. The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security. www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=1040]
The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should
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radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.
He furthers:
The United States must not seek to Americanize
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limiting its public cooperation with the United States.
Also, Terrorists can easily obtain nuclear weapons
National Terror Alert 10 [April 18, 2010, http://www.nationalterroralert.com/updates/2010/04/18/threat-of-terrorists-obtaining-nuclear-weapons-a-reality/, “Threat of Terrorists Obtaining Nuclear Materials is a Reality,” National Terror Alert, DA: 7/14/10]
The United States again reasserted itself as the
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lasting radiation effects at the point of detonation.
And, Yemen terrorists can acquire nuclear material
AFP 10 [12/19/2010; Yemen nuclear material 'easy target for terrorists': cable; http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101220/wl_mideast_afp/usdiplomacywikileaksyemen]
A Yemen government official warned US diplomats that
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website WikiLeaks and revealed in Britain's Guardian newspaper.
A massive nuclear terrorist attack is inevitable by 2013
Allison 10 [Graham, Douglas Dillon professor of government and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, “A Failure to Imagine the Worst,” Foreign Policy, January 25th, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/25/a_failure_to_imagine_the_worst?page=0,0]
In his first speech to the U.
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action, and relentless determination to pursue it.
Nuclear terrorism is an existential threat—it escalates to nuclear war with Russia and China.
Ayson 10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the
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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
Advantage 2 is Yemen's Stability
Al Qaeda remaining in power in Yemen causes 2 scenarios. First is Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda operations in Yemen kills Saudi Stability
Al-Watan 10 [March 26, 2010, http://www.lexisnexis.com.floyd.lib.umn.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9748500170&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9748500173&cisb=22_T9748500172&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=2, “Saudi editorial says biggest security threat to kingdom comes from Yemen”, lexis, DA: 7/15/10]
The detailed statement which the Interior Ministry released
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mercenaries and Janissary groups stationed in Yemen's mountains.
Yemen instability risks destabilizing Saudi Arabia, undermining global shipping lanes and increasing global terrorism
Lister, 11 - CNN (Tim, “Why we should care about Yemen,” CNN, 6/3, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06- 03/world/yemen.matters_1_houthis-president-ali-abdullah-saleh-aden?_s=PM:WORLD)
Yemen's oil potential has turned out (so
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a spectacular jail break in 2006 In recent years
Saudi oil production is the biggest internal link to the global economy
Hinds 10 [Matthew, project manager of RBS Global Banking & Markets, March 12, 2010, http://lse-ideas.blogspot.com/2010/03/saudi-arabia-what-are-effects-of-global.html, “Saudi Arabia : What are the Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Saudi Arabia’s Economic Prospects?”, LSE Ideas, DA: 7/15/10, Project Manager of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Senior Project Manager at WestLB European commercial bank, Regional Project Manager at CitiGroup]
Overall, the lack of urgency shown by
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but in the future expect them to dominate.
Economic collapse causes extinction
Bearden 2000, [T.E., director of Association of Distinguished American Scientists, June 12, 2000, http://www.cheniere.org/techpapers/, “Unnecessary Engery Crisis : How to Solve it Quickly,” The Tom Bearden Website, DA: 7/15/10]
History bears out that desperate nations take desperate
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the biosphere, at least for many decades.
Second is Iran. Al Qaeda violence in Yemen will draw US into war with Iran
Telegraph 9 [Richard Spencer, writing for The Telegraph, “US risks being sucked into Yemen civil war”, September 10, 2009, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/6162617/US-risks-being-sucked-into-Yemen-civil-war.html]
TENS of thousands of refugees are fleeing a
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of the United States,'' he said.
That war goes nuclear
Burleigh 7 [Michael, Research Professor in Modern History, Jan 5, 2007, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3635933/The-Iranian-who-wants-an-apocalypse.html, “The Iranian Who Wants an Apocalypse,” Telegraph, DA: 7/15/10, Awarded a first class honours degree in Medieval and Modern History from University College London, winning the Pollard, Dolley and Sir William Mayer prizes. Ph.D in medieval history, was a professor at New College, Oxford, the London School of Economics, and University of Cardiff]
According to today's Spectator, Ahmadinejad may actually
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nuclear cycle needed to produce weapons grade uranium.
Failure to form a state is the root cause of Yemen's problems
Harris & Page 9 [Alistair, Director of the research consultancy Pursue Ltd, Michael, “The State of Yemen,”The Royal United Services Institute Journal, 54:6, 2009, p. 68-72]
Yemen is increasingly caricatured as a failed state
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), as a significant obstacle to Yemeni development.
