First is Inherency
Democracy in Yemen collapsing. The security situation is deteriorating and elections are being postponed
Hill 10 [Ginny, Chatham House Briefing Paper, “Yemen: Fear of Failure”, January 2010, http://www.nrc.ch/8025708F004CE90B/(httpDocuments)/E39C81E78847A37FC12576F500684B52/$file/CHATHAM_Yemen_FearOfFailure_January2010.pdf]
In the 14 months … latest ‘safe haven’.
Current US policy focus of anti-terrorism needs to shift to government and democracy assistance
Boucek 11 [Dr. Christopher, Congressional Testimony “U.S. Policy in Yemen”, The Carnegie Endowment, July 19, 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0719_testimony_boucek.pdf]
In large part, … conditions in Yemen improve.
PLAN
The United States Federal Government should provide assistance for local governance training programs and assistance for civil society groups.
Advantage 1 is AQAP
We are on the tipping point – a successful Arab spring will crush Al-Qaeda, failure will lead to Al-Qaeda take over
Zarate & Gordon 11
(Juan – Senior Adviser CSIS; David – Program Manager CSIS; The Battle for Reform with
Al-Qaeda; Washington Quarterly; 34:3 pp. 103122)
That salvo in the rhetorical battle …. all that it can to seize it.
AQAP has become the most active terrorist cell and biggest threat to the United States and is rapidly gaining a foothold in Yemen.
Boucek 11 [Dr. Christopher, Congressional Testimony “U.S. Policy in Yemen”, The Carnegie Endowment, July 19, 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0719_testimony_boucek.pdf]
Since its creation in January … control is not known.
AQAP presence undermines US leadership and security
Boucek 11 [Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, “Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland – Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” The Carnegie Endowment, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=42811&solr_hilite=AQAP, March 2]
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian … American domestic security.”
AQAP intent on attacking US targets and escalating violence into spectacular attacks
Boucek 11 [Christopher, writing for The Hill, “Alarming Reality in Yemen”, March 9, 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/09/alarming-reality-in-yemen/6s7]
Because of the government’s inability to control its own territory, the local al-Qaeda affiliate—al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)—has found in Yemen …. back into its operational planning.
Terrorists can easily obtain nuclear weapons
National Terror Alert 10 [April 18, 2010, http://www.nationalterroralert.com/updates/2010/04/18/threat-of-terrorists-obtaining-nuclear-weapons-a-reality/, “Threat of Terrorists Obtaining Nuclear Materials is a Reality,” National Terror Alert, DA: 7/14/10]
The United States again reasserted … at the point of detonation.
Yemen terrorists can acquire nuclear material
AFP 10 [12/19/2010; Yemen nuclear material 'easy target for terrorists': cable; http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101220/wl_mideast_afp/usdiplomacywikileaksyemen]
A Yemen government official … revealed in Britain's Guardian newspaper.
A massive nuclear terrorist attack is inevitable by 2013
Allison 10 [Graham, Douglas Dillon professor of government and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, “A Failure to Imagine the Worst,” Foreign Policy, January 25th, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/25/a_failure_to_imagine_the_worst?page=0,0]
In his first speech to the U.N. … relentless determination to pursue it.
Terrorism causes extinction
Boyle 9 [Francis, professor of international law at Illinois University of Law, August 20, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2009/08/20_boyle_criminality_deterrence.php, “The Criminality of Nuclear Deterrence,” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, DA: 7/14/10]
The human race … conspiracy as soon as possible.
Nuclear terrorism is an existential threat—it escalates to nuclear war with Russia and China.
Ayson 10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]
A terrorist nuclear attack, …chances of nuclear restraint.
Advantage 2 is Yemen stability
Yemen is on the brink – collapse by 2013 that escalates and destabilizes the Middle East
Boucek 9
(Christopher Boucek; September 2009; “Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East Program Number 102)
Yemen faces a great ….inaction has simply grown too great.
Yemen currently can’t fight back against Al Qaeda – needs better U.S. assistance
RNW 9 [Radio Netherlands Worldwide, December 30, http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/yemen-wants-more-help-counter-terrorism, DA: 7/14/10]
The Yemeni government has said …hide-outs earlier this month.
Al Qaeda remaining in power in Yemen causes 2 scenarios. First is Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda operations in Yemen kills Saudi Stability
Al-Watan 10 [March 26, 2010, http://www.lexisnexis.com.floyd.lib.umn.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9748500170&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9748500173&cisb=22_T9748500172&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=2, “Saudi editorial says biggest security threat to kingdom comes from Yemen”, lexis, DA: 7/15/10]
The detailed statement … stationed in Yemen's mountains.
Yemen instability risks destabilizing Saudi Arabia, undermining global shipping lanes and increasing global terrorism
Lister, 11 - CNN (Tim, “Why we should care about Yemen,” CNN, 6/3, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06- 03/world/yemen.matters_1_houthis-president-ali-abdullah-saleh-aden?_s=PM:WORLD)
Yemen's oil potential has turned …now is an open question.
Failure to control Al Qaeda in Yemen kills Middle Eastern oil production and causes both Yemeni war and regional instability
Al-Arabi 9 [May 14, 2009, http://www.lexisnexis.com.floyd.lib.umn.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9748748199&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9748755202&cisb=22_T9748755201&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=7, “Yemeni president "has the right to be concerned" about Al-Qa'idah - Arabic paper”, lexis, DA: 7/15/10]
In other words, … industries to a great danger.
Saudi oil production is the biggest internal link to the global economy
Hinds 10 [Matthew, project manager of RBS Global Banking & Markets, March 12, 2010, http://lse-ideas.blogspot.com/2010/03/saudi-arabia-what-are-effects-of-global.html, “Saudi Arabia : What are the Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Saudi Arabia’s Economic Prospects?”, LSE Ideas, DA: 7/15/10, Project Manager of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Senior Project Manager at WestLB European commercial bank, Regional Project Manager at CitiGroup]
Overall, the lack of urgency … them to dominate.
Economic collapse causes extinction
Bearden 2k, [T.E., director of Association of Distinguished American Scientists, June 12, 2000, http://www.cheniere.org/techpapers/, “Unnecessary Engery Crisis : How to Solve it Quickly,” The Tom Bearden Website, DA: 7/15/10]
History bears out that desperate nations …, at least for many decades.
Second is Iran. Al Qaeda violence in Yemen will draw US into war with Iran
Telegraph 9 [Richard Spencer, writing for The Telegraph, “US risks being sucked into Yemen civil war”, September 10, 2009, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/6162617/US-risks-being-sucked-into-Yemen-civil-war.html]
TENS of thousands … security of the United States,'' he said.
That war goes nuclear
Burleigh 7 [Michael, Research Professor in Modern History, Jan 5, 2007, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3635933/The-Iranian-who-wants-an-apocalypse.html, “The Iranian Who Wants an Apocalypse,” Telegraph, DA: 7/15/10, Awarded a first class honours degree in Medieval and Modern History from University College London, winning the Pollard, Dolley and Sir William Mayer prizes. Ph.D in medieval history, was a professor at New College, Oxford, the London School of Economics, and University of Cardiff]
According to today's Spectator, … produce weapons grade uranium.
Failure to form a state is the root cause of Yemen's problems
Harris & Page 9 [Alistair, Director of the research consultancy Pursue Ltd, Michael, “The State of Yemen,”The Royal United Services Institute Journal, 54:6, 2009, p. 68-72]
Yemen is increasingly caricatured …as a significant obstacle to Yemeni development.
No risk of a turn. If Yemen is unstable, so is Saudi Arabia, and vice versa
Al-Arabi, Arabic newspaper, 9 [May 14, 2009, http://www.lexisnexis.com.floyd.lib.umn.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9748748199&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9748755202&cisb=22_T9748755201&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=7, “Yemeni president "has the right to be concerned" about Al-Qa'idah - Arabic paper”, lexis, DA: 7/15/10]
This realization was evident … stability in the kingdom."
Solvency
US should reform political institutions, solves for internal conflict
Campbell 10 [Leslie, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute, “Yemen on the Brink: Implications for U.S. Policy,” U.S. House of Representatives, http://www.ndi.org/files/Les_Campbell_Yemen_Testimony_HFAC.pdf, Feb 3]
While democratic institutions in Yemen … verifiable, independent audits.
Building government legitimacy is key to solving terrorism
Bipartisan Policy Institute 11 [Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe A Stitch Time: Strategizing Fragile State, May 2011 Bipartisan Policy Institute, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FS_Final.pdf pg 22]
Consider Yemen. While the state … institutions or societal acceptance.
Guaranteeing success of Democratic reforms key to preventing terrorism from regaining relevance.
Zarate and Gordon 11 [Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf]
What if the aspirations … and regain its relevance.
