Contention 1 is sectarianism
Syrian regime collapse is inevitable
Allen 11-14 Michael Allen, editor
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-closer-to-libyan-scenario/
Syria today “came under fresh pressure to
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campaign of suppression,” the Financial Times reports.
However, failure to successfully organize is prolonging Assad’s reign
Allen 9-2 Michael Allen, editor of Democracy Digest and Visiting Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy, “Can Syria’s opposition unite?” Democracy Digest, 9/2/2011, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/category/mena/
Syrian security forces killed at least 23 people
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of activist unity around a common political platform.
In the interim, crackdown risks generating regional sectarianism that boils over into conflict outbreak, drawing in all regional powers
Nasr 8-27 Vali Nasr, professor at Tufts University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” New York Times, 8/27/2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
THE Arab Spring is a hopeful chapter in
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great cost to the region and the world.
High propensity for Saudi-Iran conflict now—causes oil shocks and regional prolif
Spindle and Coker ’11 Bill Spindle, Vice Chancellor for Administrative Services for the University of Alaska Anchorage, and Margaret Coker, journalist for the WSJ, “The New Cold War,” Wall Street Journal, 4/16/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html
But comparison to the short-lived flowering
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the Shiites while the Saudis backed Sunni militias.
Iran is getting desperate—assassination plot proves
Klein 10-12 Joe Klein, longtime Washington, D.C. and New York journalist and columnist, member of the CFR, and formerGuggenheim Fellow, “Iranamok Redux,” Time, 10/12/11, http://swampland.time.com/2011/10/12/iranamok-redux/#ixzz1absMtGVe
But it would be careless to merely write
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of a long shot in the Middle East.
Goes global and nuclear
Primakov ’10 Yevgeny Primakov, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and member of the editorial board of Russia in Global Affairs, “The Fundamental Conflict,” New Eastern Outlook, 1/2/2010, http://www.journal-neo.com/?q=node/102
The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms
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does not completely rule out such a possibility.
Escalation uniquely likely
Russell ‘9 James Russell, editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer at the Department of National Security Affairs, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, 2009, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
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, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Oil supply disruption causes global energy wars
King ‘8 Neil King Jr., columnist for the Wall Street Journal, “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” Center for a new American Security, July 2008, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf
Many commentators in the United States and abroad
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who are to blame for the country’s travails.
Contention 2 is credibility
Increasing telecommunications assistance to Arab spring movements reinvigorates American soft power and democratic credibility
AP ’11 Jonathan M. Katz, “Internet freedom key to Arab revolts, says Amnesty,” AP, 5/13/2011, http://www.arabnews.com/middleeast/article399566.ece
NEW YORK: The United States should promote
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AP at Amnesty’ International USA’s New York headquarters.
Syria is key—it’s a critical point of US failure to act
Werz et al. ’11 Michael Werz Senior Fellow at American Progress where his work focuses on climate migration and security and transatlantic foreign policy including Turkey, Matthew Duss, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress, and Tyler Evans, intern with the National Security team, “Syrian Violence Requires U.S. Response,” Center for American Progress, 6/17/11, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/syria_response.html
While the options to resolve the crisis are
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in the complicated world of diplomatic double standards.
Soft power’s key to heg and solves their offense—strengthens coalitions, discourages opposition, and ensures public support
Jervis ‘9 Robert Jervis, professor of international politics at Columbia University, “Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective,” World Politics, Vol. 61, No. 1, January 2009
To say that the system is unipolar is
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vision and believe that its leadership is benign.
Maintaining US dominance is key to ensuring continued global peace—transition will be violent absent credible leadership now
Barnett ’11 Thomas P. M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” World Politics Review, 3/7/2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture
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your history, that should make you nervous.
Heg solves great power war
Zhang and Shi ’11 Yuhan Zhang, Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Lin Shi, Professor at Columbia, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” East Asia Forum, 1/22/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry
Over the past two decades, no other
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will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.
The United States federal government should provide substantial information and communication technology to Syrian opposition groups.
Communication tech catalyzes political movements—increases transparency and accountability, and fosters social pluralism which makes democracy work
Fontaine and Rogers ’11 Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and Will Rogers, Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security, “Internet Freedom: A Foreign Policy Imperative in the Digital Age,” Center for a New American Security, June 2011, http://cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_InternetFreedom_FontaineRogers_0.pdf
In a sense, the Internet represents just
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the protests had been confined only to cyberspace.
Also creates a boomerang effect causing democratization to build on itself—spills over regionally
Ritter & Trechsel ’11 Daniel P. Ritter, and Alexander H. Trechsel, “Revolutionary Cells: On the Role of Texts, Tweets, and Status Updates in Nonviolent Revolutions” European University Institute, Florence, Italy. Paper presented at the conference on “Internet, Voting and Democracy” 5/14/11
Due to the vast on- and offline
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virtually all MENA countries now experiencing revolutionary activities.
But the crucial difference between new and old
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a domestic struggle had become and international affair.
Democratic engagement is key to recalibrate imperialist discourses towards emancipation—engagement bad Ks are racist and holds back emancipation
Sadiki ’11 Larbi Sadiki, Senior Lecturer in Middle Eastern Politics at the University of Exeter, “The mathematics of the Arab Spring, Al-Jazeera, 6/6/2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html
Egypt and Tunisia are now officially on the
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innovations for the purpose of self-empowerment.
Consequentialism is key – their absolutism destroys political responsibility
Isaac ‘2
Jeffrey Isaac, James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life at Indiana University-Bloomington, Dissent, Vol. 49 No. 2, Spring 2002
As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max … it should never be mistaken for a serious political commitment.
Heg can be progressive—engagement recalibrates it to encourage critical discussion and emancipation—totalizing rejection recreates the worst violence, like Iraq
Thompson ‘3 Michael J. Thompson, founder and editor of Logos and professor of political theory at Hunter College, CUNY, “Iraq, Hegemony and the Question of American Empire ,” Logos 2.4, Fall 2003, http://www.logosjournal.com/thompson_iraq.htm
It is rare that political debates typically confined
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and which cannot be thought of without enthusiasm."
Individual level strategies fail and make global violence inevitable
George Monbiot, journalist, academic, and political and environmental activist, 2004, Manifesto for a New World Order, p. 11-13
The quest for global solutions is difficult and
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destroying the conditions it requires for its survival.
Policy analysis should precede discourse – most effective way to challenge power
Jill Taft-Kaufman, Speech prof @ CMU, 1995, Southern Comm. Journal, Spring, v. 60, Iss. 3, “Other Ways”, p pq
The postmodern passwords of "polyvocality," "
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agencies, and the budgets that fuel them.
Value to life inevitable – existence key to maximize it
David Pizer 2001“Argument that life has inherent value”, July 8, http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/dsp.cgi?msg=16930
Argument that life has inherent value 1.
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is life - and life has inherent value.
We should employ state sovereignty when the particulars of a situation demands it
Jacques Derrida, Directeur d’Etudes at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris, and Professor of Philosophy, French and Comparative Literature at the University of California, Irvine, 2004, For What Tomorrow? A Dialogue With Elisabeth Roudinesco, p. 91-92
J.D.: A moment ago you
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not sovereignty, even when it seems possible.
Conflict and violence at unprecedented lows now
Pinker ’11 Steven Pinker, experimental psychologist, cognitive scientist, linguist, and popular science author, and Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard, “Violence Vanquished,” Wall Street Journal, 9/24/2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Believe it or not, the world of
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success in reducing hate crimes against gay people.
Disregard root causes—prefer normative geopolitics—most flexible
Moore ‘4 John Moore, chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, “Beyond the Democratic Peace,” 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, 2004, lexis
If major interstate war is predominantly a product
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levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?
Policy analysis based on facts and objective evaluation of data avoids a slide into violent and undemocratic politics – the postpositivist alternative is suppression and hierarchy
Laurence Linn, Sid Richardson Research Professor in the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas-Austin, “A Place at the Table: Policy Analysis, Its Postpositive Critics, and the Future of Practice,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 18:3, 1999
In contrast, traditional policy analysts would view
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on practice, and practice will evolve accordingly.
Heg solves violence and ensures great power peace
Owen ’11 John Owen, associate professor in the University of Virginia’s Department of Politics, recipient of fellowships from the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford, and the Center of International Studies at Princeton, “DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY,” Cato Institute, 2/11/2011, http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/
Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the Human
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and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.