Inherency
The military is not going to give up power to the civilian authority – political, economic, and geopolitical factors lock the military in. Even when a civilian government is elected, it will not have oversight regarding the most important issues.
Masoud, 2011 (Tarek, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard’s JFK school of Government, “The Road to (and from) Liberation Square,” Journal of Democracy, Vol 22, no 3, July 2011, pg. 25-26)
It may, of course, be premature
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civilian government punctuated by numerous “corrective coups.”
The biggest short-term problem for Egypt is the education of the generals.
Fisher, 2011 (William, managed economic development for US State Dept and USAID in the Middle East, Latin America and elsewhere for 25 years, “Egypt: The Education of the Generals,” The Public Record, August 12, 2011)
Now, all this should come as no
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the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.
Plan: The United States federal government should increase its funding for the Expanded International Military Education and Training program.
Advantage 1: Egyptian Democracy
Egyptian revolution on the brink of failure because of widespread rights violations by the military and their refusal to cede power.
Super, August 23 (David A., professor of Law at Georgetown University, “Time for the U.S. to use its influence in Egypt,” LA Times, August 23, 2011)
So too today is the fate of the
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and arresting demonstrators and forcibly ending the protest.
And, they’re working on a new constitution which cements the military as the supreme authority within Egyptian politics.
New York Times, July 16 (David D. Kirkpatrick, “Egypt Military Aims to Cement Muscular Role in Government,”
The military council governing Egypt is moving to
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by shielding the military from full civilian control.
The military is also resorting to Mubarak-era torture and military tribunals to try civilians who oppose military rule. Probably undermines the rule of law and judicial independence.
AP, July 17 (“Egyptians fear army rulers acting as new Mubaraks,”
To the youth who led the protests and
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who are the real masters of this country."
Failure to establish civilian rule over the government and military in post-autocratic societies prevents the consolidation of democracy – this is the key internal link.
Croissant et al., 2011 (Aurel, professor and director at Institute of Political Science, Puprecht-Karls-University, Heidelberg; David Kuehn, research fellow at Institute of Political Science, Heidelberg University; Paul Chambers, sr. research fellow at Institute of Political Science at Heidelberg University; Siegfried Wolf, lecturer at South Asia Institute and sr. research fellow at Institute of Political Science at Heidelberg University. “Conceptualising civil-military relations in emerging democracies,” European Political Science 10.2, June 2011, pg. 141-142)
Democracy is a form of government in which
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all four partial regimes of ‘embedded democracy’.
Successful transition to democracy will spillover to other Middle Eastern countries
Kagan and Dunne 2011 (Robert, senior fellow at Brookings, Michele, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, , “Why Egypt has to be the U.S. priority in the Middle East”)
With the horrific carnage in Libya, the
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Arab Spring will live or die in Egypt.
Democracy key to peace in the Middle East
Kirkup 2011 (James Kirkup, Democracy is route to peace in Middle East, says David Cameron, The Telegraph, Feb 21, 2011, 8339054/Democracy-is-route-to-peace-in-Middle-East-says-David-Cameron.html)
Freedom and democracy are the best way to
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to a free press and healthy political parties.
The Middle East is on the brink of a nuclear war
Blake 2011 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, 8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East and Asia has
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minute if inhaled or absorbed through the skin.
Middle East war goes Global
London 2010 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10,
The coming storm in the Middle East is
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if one, falls, the tent collapses.
Advantage 2: Egyptian Economy
Egyptian military is an economic powerhouse making all important decisions about pricing and production, and forcing out politicians who advocate market reforms.
New York Times, 2011 (David D. Kirkpatrick, “Egyptians Say Military Discourages an Open Economy,” February 17, 2011)
The Egyptian military defends the country, but
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no one in the opposition is criticizing it.
Their economy is on the brink – future credit rating depends upon election of officials who will open up the Egyptian markets and promote consistency.
Namatalla and Shahune, August 24, 2011
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consistency in risk management. That’s the key.”
Stabilizing Egypt’s economy is key to prevent food wars
Goldman 2011 (David P., economist, 5/10, “The Hunger to Come in Egypt”
Egypt is running out of food, and
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a catastrophe of, well, biblical proportions.
Conflict over food leads to World War III
Calvin 1998 (William H.; Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences – University of Washington) January “The Great Climate Flip-Flop” Atlantic Monthly 281:1 EBSCO)
The population-crash scenario is surely the
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lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic.
Solvency
Expanding IMET aid is key to teach the Egyptian military governance and electoral skills
Cook 2009 (Stephen, Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action “Political Instability in Egypt” Contingency Planning memorandum no. 4, August) www.i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
A different strategy would be necessary if U
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and independent observers to monitor Egypt’s presidential elections.
To maintain stability, the Egyptian military must follow the Tunisia’s lead: getting professional schooling on civil-military relations from the United States.
Henry and Springborg, 2011 (Clement M., Professor Emeritus of Government and Middle East Studies at the University of Texas, Austin and Robert, Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Why Egypt’s Military Will Not Be Able to Govern,” Foreign Affairs, February 21, 2011)
The popular uprisings that swept Egypt and Tunisia
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relationship with Tunisia may serve as a model.
