What’s going down in democracy assistance town
MEPI funding is limited to a particular range of NGO’s, not to the full range of civil society actors
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Brookings Inst., http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2010/10_middle_east_hamid.aspx)
Civil society played a critical role in democratic transitions in Eastern Europe and Latin America.
…
democratization do not do anything that can be construed as supporting a change in regime. This is in contrast to the experience of the colored revolutions where the objective of NGOs and political movements alike was to replace the prevailing regime with something else. Very few NGOs in the Arab world are organizing for street protest and nonviolent civil disobedience.
Contention one is instability –
Sectarian tensions are escalating in Bahrain.
Murphy 9-2 [Brian, editor at the Associated Press and former foreign correspondent, “Bahrain tensions beginning to grow again,” http://articles.boston.com/2011-09-02/news/30106679_1_security-forces-bahrain-united-arab-emirates]
It has become a nightly duel in Bahrain: Security forces and antigovernment protesters waging hit-and-run clashes in one of the simmering conflicts of the Arab Spring. So far, the skirmishes have failed to jell into another serious challenge to the Gulf nation’s Western-backed monarchy after crushing a reform
….
key Arab military relationships on Iran’s doorstep.
National Dialogue failure has exacerbated these tensions.
Ulrichsen 9-6 [Kristian, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “Dark Clouds Over Bahrain,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain]
The killing of a 14-year-old boy by police on the island of Sitra on Aug. 31 has reignited simmering tensions in Bahrain. Ali Jawad Ahmad died while attending an Eid al-Fitr demonstration, one of numerous flashpoints in the daily confrontations between anti-government protesters and the security services. His death triggered widespread protests that rapidly spread to most
…..
the flawed process reinforced existing divisions and demonstrated very clearly that critical issues of political contention are simply not up for debate.
This will embolden Iran, extremists, and cause oil tensions.
Pearson ’11 [Peter, Deputy Commander of NATO’s Southern Command in Italy, Aug 4, “Bahrain and the Arab Spring: time for some realism,” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8681885/Bahrain-and-the-Arab-Spring-time-for-some-realism.html]
In recent years, it has become fashionable to downgrade the merits of stability. The benign outcome from the fall of Communism across Eastern Europe in 1989 was a product of a unique set of circumstances in nations that had previously been more democratically advanced than their Soviet oppressors. Moreover, the newly liberated countries had as their model ……
and turn a new page. A stable Bahrain with laws and practices that are fair and acceptable to all bar the extremists would not only be in the interests of all the Bahraini citizens but, clearly, of the wider region and beyond.
Iran will gain regional hegemony and attack other targets using Bahrain as its test case.
Friedman ’11 [George, founder and CEO of Stratfor, Mar 8, “Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110307-bahrain-and-battle-between-iran-and-saudi-arabia]
Bahrain is the perfect example and test case. An island off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are linked by a causeway. For most purposes, Bahrain is part of Saudi Arabia. Unlike Saudi Arabia, it is not a major oil
……
dangerous choices, beginning with the question of how to resist Iran while keeping the price of oil manageable.
Nuclearization and proliferation breaks loose
Ben-Meir ‘7 [Alon, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Feb 7, “Ending Iran’s defiance,” http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html]
The fact that Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every sphere of American influence in the Middle East attests to the dismal failure of the Bush administration’s policy toward it during the last six years. Feeling
….
political weapon to blackmail the West, and instigate regional proliferation of nuclear weapons’ programs. In short, if unchecked, Iran could plunge the Middle East into a deliberate or inadvertent nuclear conflagration.
Iranian nuclearization ignites Middle Eastern war- 28 million dead in 21 days, 33 million to follow, global economy destroyed- extinction
Walker 7 [Martin Senior Director of the Global Business Policy Council November 22 Middle East Times http://www.metimes.com/Opinion/2007/11/22/analysis_a_mideast_nuclear_war/4411/ ] KLS
He has now turned his laser-like research and forensic intelligence skills to studying the real implication of the endless diplomatic minuet at the United Nations over Iran's nuclear ambitions. In
….
growth and prosperity that are hauling hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians and others out of poverty.
Crackdowns independently create a new urban extremist risk – even a small attack incites a massive response – Hezbollah will get drawn in.
Ibish ’11 [Hussein, Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, Apr 14, “Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/is_bahrain_creating_a_new_terrorist_threat]
Since then, the government of Bahrain has instituted a total crackdown, beating teenagers in the streets, clamping down on press freedoms, and hauling online activists in for questioning. The daily demonstrations, overwhelmingly
….
is it that they would react in a more rational and prudent manner to a violent security threat, however limited and symbolic?
Hezbollah involvement in Bahrain will obliterate Bahraini-Lebanese ties – this will independently realign the Lebanese political landscape and destabilize the country.
Alami ’11 [Mona, Beirut-based journalist for IPS, Apr 21, “Hezbollah Challenges Bahrain Govt,” http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55335]
Hezbollah’s hardening stance in the Bahraini crisis has sowed discord between Lebanon and the Gulf island, currently home to about 5,000 Lebanese expatriates. As the situation escalates, many fear that the
…..
…
"Hezbollah is militarily in control of Lebanon; Lebanese are thus helpless," says Khashan. If local factions allow regional powers to come into play, the local political crisis in Lebanon could take a turn for the worse.
Extinction.
Stuart ‘6 [James, Principle Consultant at Hedra PLC, “Lebanon – The Struggle Continues,” http://alt3.co.uk/Library/Lebanon.htm]
Why is this important? Why is Lebanon, which is a small country, so important to the rest of the world? Why should the world pay attention to the undeniable plight of Lebanon? The world should pay attention because Lebanon is so crucially placed. It is also a democracy in a region infamous for its extremist inspired instability. The murderous extremists who inspire such instability are doing everything in their
….
only be a wider destruction – and will be too much to stop.
Contention 2 is instability
Window for dialogue is closing – civil war will erupt
Shaikh 11 (Salmin, Brookings Inst., Mar 21, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/ the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers?wpisrc=obinsite)
While US and international attention is focused largely elsewhere in the region, especially Libya, the violent crackdown against protestors in the tiny island kingdom of Bahrain may well pose a bigger threat to the entire region's stability. The Bahrain situation is exposing long simmering tensions and
….
these specters. The result may be the transformation of the existing Saudi-Iranian "Cold War" to direct confrontations and the intensification of "proxy conflicts," already prevalent in the region.
Inaction on Bahrain guts US credibility – actions don’t back up words.
Danin ’11 [Robert, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at Council on Foreign Relations, Jul 27, “U.S. Priorities in a Changing Middle East,” http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/us-priorities-changing-middle-east/p25544]
The United States should not try to come up with a one-size-fits-all policy for the region. Our interests are too diverse and our influence too uneven. That said, on May 19, President Obama tried to articulate an American vision for its
….
president of producing great speeches but poorly formulated or executed policies.
US policy in Bahrain has undermined US credibility throughout the Middle East.
Hudson ’11 [Michael, Seif Ghobash Professor of Government and International Relations at Georgetown University, Aug 17, “Middle East Policy: A zero-sum game?” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181681017137387.html]
Then there is the so-called "Arab Spring". In a speech last June, Obama declared that the US was going to get on "the right side of history" by supporting the popular uprisings across the Arab world, instead of propping up dictators in hopes of containing Islamist radicalism. The US moved fairly quickly to
….
history". The issue here was Saudi Arabia, which dispatched troops to help crush the Bahrain popular protests. King Abdullah - already furious that Washington had "betrayed" Ben Ali and Mubarak - did not conceal his displeasure over US dithering on Bahrain.
Bahrain is the litmus test for US credibility in the region – the next few months are key.
Dorsey ’11 [James, senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University School of International Relations, Aug 13, “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/]
For both Mr. Obama and Mr. Blatter, the issue is what is the price of postponing the inevitable? The widespread sense of discontent remains with a deeper than ever sectarian divide that makes the status quo in Bahrain unsustainable. The crackdown has pushed the uprising
….
Hillary Clinton get on the right side of history.
This allows China to fill the void.
Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]
The decline in U.S. standing in the Middle East following the Iraq War created opportunities for other extraregional actors to expand their influence in regional affairs, notably China and Russia.
…..
strengthened eco- nomic ties. However, should the U.S. “brand” continue to suffer, Chinese and Russian engagement could spread into the security portfolio.
The impact is linear.
Heydarian ’10 [Richard Javad, FPIF contributor with focus on developments in the Middle East, May 10, “China and America Jostle in Middle East,” http://www.fpif.org/articles/china_and_america_jostle_in_middle_east]
A testament to China's growing diplomatic sophistication is how it has endorsed alternative
…..
As anti-U.S. sentiment grew in the Middle East, China found it easier to expand ties with all relevant regional powers, including America's Arab allies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. China's strategic maneuverings have been a savvy fusion of mercantilist foreign policy and security-focused diplomacy.
Competition will cause US-Sino war.
Luft & Korin ‘4 [Gal (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) & Anne (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS), Mar, “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm]
The Chinese also have at their disposal immense reserves of manpower, which they can deploy to
…..
most unstable region can once again become an omnipresent danger. At that point, as Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.
Extinction.
Straits Times 2k [Jun 25, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” Lexis]
The Doomsday Scenario – The high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-
…..
While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.
Contention 3 is solvency
SQ Middle East Partnership Initiative funds are directed toward economic and technical assistance for governments with limited pilot programming for civil society programs – This undermines US credibility and limits US relations with opposition groups
Yerkes & Wittes 4 (Sarah & Tamara, Brookings Inst., http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2004/1129middleeast_wittes.aspx)
One of MEPI's distinguishing features at its founding was its determination to reject large, government-to-government aid programs in favor of direct assistance to Arab civil society groups.
….
Sadly, then, MEPI's own actions have led very few Arab reformers to take the program seriously as a tool they could use to enhance their efforts—the avowed purpose of the program from its inception.
US is key.
Nasr ’11 [Vali, professor at Tufts University and senior fellow at Brookings Institution, Aug 27, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html]
Beyond Syria, the two countries most at risk are Bahrain and Lebanon, and here we can have an impact. The United States should urge Bahrain’s monarchy to end its crackdown, start talking seriously with the opposition, and agree to meaningful power sharing. Washington has strong military ties with Bahrain and should use this leverage to argue for a peaceful resolution there. In
…..
would likely run their destructive course at great cost to the region and the world.
US is key – must act in the next few months.
Human Rights First ’11 [Jul, “Bahrain: A Tortruous Process,” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/Bahrain_A-Tortuous-Process_July-2011.pdf]
The events of recent months have strained workplace relations to the breaking point between Sunnis and Shi’as.
…..
human rights defender. “That’s when they’ll decide what concessions to make. But we can’t wait that long, people are too angry.”
MEPI engages with NGO groups to increase political coordination
DoS 5/20 [Department of State, 2011, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/05/163822.htm
State Department has a long history of supporting reform efforts in Bahrain, through direct diplomatic engagement and projects of the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). * During the past eight years
…..
Ministry of Justice and local bar associations to increase judicial capacity, improve legislative drafting, and promote professionalism among Ministry officials.
The plan makes peaceful reconciliation and dialogue possible, preventing violent collapse and ensuring strong relations between the U.S. and the Bahraini opposition
Fisher 10 (Max, editor@The Atlantic, http://www.vob.org/en/index.php?show=news&action=article&id=590)
However, a small nudge to Bahrain from a mid-level U.S. official, even after weeks or more of letting Middle East groups build pressure, could strengthen the liberal Arab movement while minimizing backlash.
…..
or extremism. It promotes from within the Middle East we want but have been unable to force into being.
US involvement deters Iran
Anderson ’11 [Sulome, Columbia University School of Journalism, Apr 11, “Unrest in Bahrain: An Opportunity for Iran?” http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2011/04/26/irans-opportunity-after-bahraini-crackdown]
But area specialists say there is little evidence to confirm allegations of Iranian involvement in the protests themselves, which were
….
but to turn to Iran for guidance or even perhaps something more serious.”
Solves credibility
Brynen 7 [Professor of Security and Development PhD, University of Calgary, 4/5, http://www.mcgill.ca/files/icames/MaghrebDemocratization.pdf]
Despite this, it is undoubtedly true
…
exceeds the levels that would be found in other regions undergoing democratization.
Shi’ite protestors want visible U.S. support
AP 3/7 (http://washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/2011/03/shiite-protesters-bahrain-protest-us-policy)
Hundreds of members of Bahrain's Shiite Muslim majority protested outside the U.S. Embassy on Monday to appeal for Washington to back their campaign for greater political freedom.
…..
successful if they will "lead to concrete actions and reforms," the embassy said.
Plan: The United States federal government should expand the Middle East Partnership Initiative to enable civil society engagement in Bahrain.
