Contention one is instability –
Sectarian tensions are escalating in Bahrain.
Murphy 9-2 [Brian, editor at the Associated Press and former foreign correspondent, “Bahrain tensions beginning to grow again,” http://articles.boston.com/2011-09-02/news/30106679_1_security-forces-bahrain-united-arab-emirates]
It has become a nightly… relationships on Iran’s doorstep.
National Dialogue failure has exacerbated these tensions.
Ulrichsen 9-6 [Kristian, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “Dark Clouds Over Bahrain,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain]
The killing of a… not up for debate.
This will embolden Iran, extremists, and cause oil tensions.
Pearson ’11 [Peter, Deputy Commander of NATO’s Southern Command in Italy, Aug 4, “Bahrain and the Arab Spring: time for some realism,” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8681885/Bahrain-and-the-Arab-Spring-time-for-some-realism.html]
In recent years, it… wider region and beyond.
Iran will gain regional hegemony and attack other targets using Bahrain as its test case.
Friedman ’11 [George, founder and CEO of Stratfor, Mar 8, “Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110307-bahrain-and-battle-between-iran-and-saudi-arabia]
Bahrain is the perfect… price of oil manageable.
Global nuclear war.
Ben-Meir ‘7 [Alon, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Feb 7, “Ending Iran’s defiance,” http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html]
The fact that Iran… or inadvertent nuclear conflagration.
Oil tensions also escalate.
Qasem ‘7 [Islam Yasin, Masters in International Relations from Columbia, Jul 9, “The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage,” http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm%5D]
Recognizing the strategic value… national interests are high.
Bahrain will be a proxy for Pakistani nuclear weapons use.
Strategy Page ’11 [Aug 9, “Bahrain Hires Pakistani Nukes,” http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20110809.aspx]
Bahrain hopes to halt… expense and diplomatic hassle.
Crackdowns independently create a new urban extremist risk – even a small attack incites a massive response – Hezbollah will get drawn in.
Ibish ’11 [Hussein, Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, Apr 14, “Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/is_bahrain_creating_a_new_terrorist_threat]
Since then, the government… however limited and symbolic?
Hezbollah involvement in Bahrain will obliterate Bahraini-Lebanese ties – this will independently realign the Lebanese political landscape and destabilize the country.
Alami ’11 [Mona, Beirut-based journalist for IPS, Apr 21, “Hezbollah Challenges Bahrain Govt,” http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55335]
Hezbollah’s hardening stance in… turn for the worse.
Extinction.
Stuart ‘6 [James, Principle Consultant at Hedra PLC, “Lebanon – The Struggle Continues,” http://alt3.co.uk/Library/Lebanon.htm]
Why is this important… too much to stop.
Contention two is the Fifth Fleet –
Crisis in Bahrain has caused the US to look to relocate the Fifth Fleet.
Dunnigan ’11 [James, Strategy Page, Aug 5, “U.S. Base In Bahrain In Danger,” http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/US-Base-In-Bahrain-In-Danger-8-5-2011.asp]
The United States is quietly… warships operating in the area.
No offense – shifting the base to another country is destabilizing.
Dietz ’11 [David, Journalist for the Mideaster, Apr 21, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/]
With the approximately 70… would be to Saudi.
Fifth Fleet is key to defeat terrorists – Afghan basing.
Knickerbocker ’11 [Brad, Staff writer for Christian Science Monitor, Feb 19, “US faces difficult situation in Bahrain, home to US Fifth Fleet,” http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0219/US-faces-difficult-situation-in-Bahrain-home-to-US-Fifth-Fleet]
Perhaps more critical, Bahrain… of world oil markets."
Terrorism would go nuclear.
Brookes ‘9 [Peter, Heritage Foundation senior fellow and former deputy assistant secretary of defense, Nov, “Why we can’t walk away,” http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2009/11/4318450/]
Losing in Afghanistan to… result across the border.
And escalate to global nuclear war.
Speice ‘6 [Patrick, JD Candidate at Marshall-Wythe School Law at College of William and Mary, Feb, “Note: Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation,” Lexis]
The potential consequences of… the use of nuclear weapons.
Even if the US doesn’t move the base by itself, continued violence makes keeping the base untenable.
Lippman ’11 [Thomas, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, Aug 4, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html]
Last month Human Rights… quest and hope for success.
Contention three is Iraq –
Failure to take action on Bahrain will undermine US-Iraq relations – reignites sectarian tensions in Iraq.
Habibi ’11 [Nader, Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East at Brandeis, Apr 25, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm]
Current U.S. policy toward… Iraq's Sunnis and Shiites.
That causes a global sectarian conflict.
Montero ‘7 [David, Correspondent for Christian Science Monitor, Feb 2, “Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan,” http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0202/p01s02-wosc.html]
In this Punjabi city… York, in an e-mail.
Nuclear war.
CNN ‘7 [Aneesh Raman, Correspondent, Jan 24, “Opposing the Surge,” http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0701/24/cnr.05.html]
RAMAN: For years, Sunnis… are bracing for anything.
US-Iraq relations are key to solve Kurdish tensions.
Cordesman ’10 [Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, Jun, “Iraq and the United States Creating a Strategic Partnership,” http://csis.org/files/publication/100622_Cordesman_IraqUSStrategicPartner_WEB.pdf]
Such support will have… direct importer of Gulf oil.
Kurdish tensions in Iraq escalate regionally.
Palka ’11 [Eugene, PhD and Professor of Geography and a Colonel in the United States Army, May 27, “Kurd-Arab tensions along the Green Line,” http://www0.sun.ac.za/sdorm/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=171&Itemid=26]
I submit that the… impacts of neighbouring countries.
That causes Turkish-Syrian conflict.
Mert ’11 [Nuray, Hurriyet Daily News, Aug 14, “The Turkey-Syria saga,” http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=the-turkey-syria-saga-2011-08-14]
It is not only… parties in the conflict.
World War 3 – draws in Iran, Russia, and China.
Snyder ’11 [Michael, DC-based lawyer, Jun 28, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?” http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey]
What makes things even… out some place else.
Contention four is credibility –
Inaction on Bahrain guts US credibility – actions don’t back up words.
Danin ’11 [Robert, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at Council on Foreign Relations, Jul 27, “U.S. Priorities in a Changing Middle East,” http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/us-priorities-changing-middle-east/p25544]
The United States should… formulated or executed policies.
US policy in Bahrain has undermined US credibility throughout the Middle East.
Hudson ’11 [Michael, Seif Ghobash Professor of Government and International Relations at Georgetown University, Aug 17, “Middle East Policy: A zero-sum game?” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181681017137387.html]
Then there is the… over US dithering on Bahrain.
Bahrain is the litmus test for US credibility in the region – the next few months are key.
Dorsey ’11 [James, senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University School of International Relations, Aug 13, “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/]
For both Mr. Obama… right side of history.
This allows China to fill the void.
Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]
The decline in U.S… into the security portfolio.
The impact is linear.
Heydarian ’10 [Richard Javad, FPIF contributor with focus on developments in the Middle East, May 10, “China and America Jostle in Middle East,” http://www.fpif.org/articles/china_and_america_jostle_in_middle_east]
A testament to China's… and security-focused diplomacy.
Competition will cause US-Sino war.
Luft & Korin ‘4 [Gal (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) & Anne (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS), Mar, “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm]
The Chinese also have… world will surely tremble.
Extinction.
Straits Times 2k [Jun 25, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” Lexis]
The Doomsday Scenario… sovereignty above everything else.
Contention five is solvency –
US-led mediation solves.
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs ’11 [Ali (Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs) & Jacob (Gulf Policy Analyst), May, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9]
While it may be… the wake of the crisis.
Absent US action, Iran will gain influence.
Anderson ’11 [Sulome, Columbia University School of Journalism, Apr 11, “Unrest in Bahrain: An Opportunity for Iran?” http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2011/04/26/irans-opportunity-after-bahraini-crackdown]
But area specialists say… perhaps something more serious.”
US is key – must act in the next few months.
Human Rights First ’11 [Jul, “Bahrain: A Tortruous Process,” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/Bahrain_A-Tortuous-Process_July-2011.pdf]
The events of recent months… long, people are too angry.”
US is key.
Nasr ’11 [Vali, professor at Tufts University and senior fellow at Brookings Institution, Aug 27, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html]
Beyond Syria, the two… region and the world.
PLAN: The United States federal government should enter into and mediate policy dialogue with the government of Bahrain and opposition group leaders.
