1. Bahrain rejects democracy assistance.
Democracy Digest ’11 [“Bahrain invasion ‘a turning point in Arab Spring’,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/03/bahrain-invasion-a-turning-point-in-arab-spring/]
The US has “long sought… auspices of a local NGO.
2. US has no influence or leverage in Bahrain.
Reuters ’11 [Feb 18, “Obama calls on Bahrain’s king for restraint,” http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/18/obama-calls-on-bahrains-king-for-restraint/]
Middle East experts said… for Near East Policy.
3. US action irrelevant – Saudi Arabia will circumvent reform.
Ottaway ’11 [Marina, analyst of political transformation in the Middle East and Gulf security for Carnegie Endowment, Apr 4, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states-and-saudi-arabia/t8#]
But U.S. concerns in… autocratic regime.
4. Alt cause – lack of jobs.
Murphy ’11 [Brian, AP, Sep 8, “Bahrain job purges linger as protest flashpoint,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jLC14m3iLPzF9w9T37W-MFeHde5A?docId=f4682d700bb44391920c92034a8dd25c]
The broadest aim of the… rage of the dismissed."
5. Iran won’t escalate Bahrain war.
Spinner ’11 [Jack, Christian Science Monitor, Mar 15, “Why Bahrain is Unlikely to turn into an Iran-Saudi battleground,”http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0315/Why-Bahrain-is-unlikely-to-turn-into-an-Iran-Saudi-battleground]
“Saudi Arabia, all… Bahrain's monarchy.”
6. No Iran/Saudi war over Bahrain – multiple reasons.
Javedanfar ’11 [Meir, Middle East Analyst for the Guardian, Mar 24, “Iran and Saudi Arabia cold war has entered a new era,”http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/24/iran-saudi-arabia-bahrain-cold-war]
The question is: what is Iran… angry with the Saudis.
7. US won’t move the Fifth Fleet – the pact was renewed.
AFP 8-5 [“US-Bahrain defense pact renewed,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i2bp6IG_k4Yle2lKlPux76Qz1BAA?docId=CNG.b36a715ab130ce2bbcf6408109ec0b93.241]
US officials and their… of October 2011.
8. Fifth fleet is obsolete – undermines US ability to solve regional crises and encourages destabilizing actions.
Jones ’11 [Toby, Assistant Professor of History at Rutgers, Jun 10, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet,”http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/?single_page=true]
It is widely believed… much of a success.
9. Fifth Fleet isn’t key to oil access.
Jones ’11 [Toby, Assistant Professor of History at Rutgers, Jun 10, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet,”http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/?single_page=true]
But the Gulf, after… reliance on -- the latter.
2NC Cards
US has no leverage in Bahrain.
McManus ’11 [Doyle, LA Times, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220]
The United States has less leverage… and harsh repression.
US can do absolutely nothing.
Al-Tamimi ’11 [Aymenn, Intern at Middle East Forum, Jun 19, “Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?” http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html]
But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia… Saudis and the GCC.
US can’t do anything about Bahrain – too many regional factors.
Knigge ’11 [Michael, Deutsche Welle, Mar 25, “Washington has vested interest but little leverage in Bahrain,” http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14941531,00.html]
For all those reasons, Washington… here in the region."
Solving unemployment is a prerequisite to the aff.
Ghezali ’11 [Rabah, CNN, Sep 13, “Bahrain at the heart of Middle East tensions,” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/bahrain-at-the-heart-of-middle-east-tensions/]
On both sides of… may overwhelm the region.
Iran won’t escalate any time soon.
Barzegar ’11 [Kayhan, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, Apr 20, “Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring,” http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html]
Iran will not initiate… presence in the Persian Gulf.
No war – not in Iran’s interests.
Stratfor ’11 [Apr 20, “Saudi Arabia's Iran Conundrum,” http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/20/saudi_arabias_iran_conundrum_99487.html]
“The key problem for… bellicose rhetoric.
US isn’t looking to move the fleet now.
Haass 7-21 [Samuel, Huffington Post, “Navy Staying in Bahrain, State Department Says,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/21/navy-bahrain-state-department_n_906193.html]
American officials are…for the fleet.
Pentagon won’t move it.
European Phoenix 7-21 [“US Fifth Fleet Unwilling to Move out of Bahrain,” http://europeanphoenix.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=278%3Aus-fifth-fleet-unwilling-to-move-out-of-bahrain&catid=35%3Apolitica&lang=en]
Although a number of politicians… already-damaged reputation.
Fifth Fleet is useless, especially due to new types of warfare.
Gresh ’10 [Geoffrey, research fellow and doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” Lexis]
The United States relies on a large… through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran (or al-Qaeda) won’t harm Hormuz – Fifth Fleet isn’t key – only a risk that removing it helps the US military and improves its image with Iran.
Gresh ’10 [Geoffrey, research fellow and doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” Lexis]
Drawing down U.S. naval forces… home and abroad.
