1NC T

Military assistance isn’t T

Daniela Huber 11 PhD IR Candidate @ Hebrew U, MA in International Relations from the Free University of Berlin, email exchange on August 1 2011, full exchange can be found at nudebate.blogspot.com

I think that democracy assistance is financial aid 

AND 

promotion by example, or even military invasion. 

1NC K

The plan is justification for American cooptation of the Arab Spring – this fuels a narrative of orientalism that results in regional blowback – turns the aff

Ghannoushi 11

Soumaya Ghannoushi is a researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies. "Obama, hands off our spring" May 26 2011 www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring

The US wants to turn the Arab revolutions 

AND 

preach democracy, while occupying and aiding occupation.

The impact is mass war and genocide that turn solvency and threatens extinction

Batur 7

Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, “The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7

At the turn of the 20th century, 

AND 

century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

Our Alternative is to position yourself as a critical intellectual in order to re-think security---representation of the Middle East can be changed but only by rejecting calls to action like the affirmative that are grounded in Orientalism

Bilgin 5 

Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p12-

Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its position 

AND 

be sought in this part of the world.

Turkey CP

The Republic of Turkey should substantially increase its democracy assistance to Egypt targeted at increasing civilian control over the government, including but not limited to modeling the United States’ International Military Education and Training Program. 

Counterplan solves the aff

Thomas 11—grad of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Intl Studies. NYT writer (Landon, In Turkey’s Example, Some See Map for Egypt, www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06turkey.html?_r=1)

As Egypt struggles to reinvent itself, many 

AND 

is due to the military,” he said.

SKFTA---1NC 

SKFTA will pass but PC is key 

Palmer 9/2 Doug, Reuters Reporter, " Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall," 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902

After a slow start that has frustrated U

AND 

in the Senate to approve the trade pacts.

Plan is hugely controversial – drains pol cap

Nathan Guttman 11 Jewish Daily "Congress Wielding Foreign Aid Budget in Effort to Influence Shape of New Middle East" May 27 www.forward.com/articles/137826/

Congress’s power of the purse is emerging as 

AND 

W. Bush and Ariel Sharon in 2002.

Pol cap necessary and the bill saves the alliance

Kim 9/6 Sukhan Kim senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP "Pushing the FTA to the finish line" koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157

Despite these hurdles, the time has come 

AND 

finally get on with ratification of Korus FTA. 

That’s key to the economy, the alliance, global trade, hegemony, democracy, and solving warming

Daniel Twining 9 is Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). He is also a consultant to the U.S. government on international security affairs “The U.S.-ROK Alliance  in the 21st Century,” Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century - The Role of Korean-American Partnership  in Shaping Asia’s Emerging Order” www.kinu.or.kr/upload/neoboard/DATA05/korus09.pdf

Bilateral and regional trade liberalization Expanding U.

AND 

Japan,  China, and Russia—meet.

Relations deters North Korean belligerence

Gerwin 10 (Edward F., Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy – Third Way, “5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal”, Wall Street Journal, 12-16, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/)

5. China is Not a Fan. 

AND 

other “beefy” benefits for American trade. 

And, Korean crisis escalates to great power conflict

Stares and Wit 9 (Paul, Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention – Council on Foreign Relations and, Joel, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow – Weatherhead East Asia Institute at Columbia University, “Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea”, January, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/North_Korea_CSR42.pdf)

These various scenarios would present the United States 

AND 

South Korean and American intervention in the North. 

Warming causes extinction --- outweighs everything

The New York End Times 6 The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp

We rate Global Climate Change as a greater 

AND 

we also need to incorporate the dangers here.

Case

Support for military broad---constituency against them are small---aff can’t do anything 

Rosen 11—freelance writer; has written a lot for the Atlantic. Columbia grad (Armin, Cairo Dispatch: Can Egypt’s Liberals Challenge the Military’s Hegemony?, http://www.tnr.com/article/93642/egypt-liberals-military-cairo?page=0,0)

FEP has a broadly pro-trade and 

AND 

Tahrir, shopkeepers and passersby cheered them on.

Military will hand over power now----they don’t want power 

O’Sullivan 8/25—award winning journalist on Mid East affairs (8/25/11, Arieh, Egypt’s Reluctant Rulers, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:oQ9knLwQiHwJ:www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp%3FNewsID%3D33081+scaf+egypt+turkey+model&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (

AND 

for Middle East Studies at Ben Gurion University.

Egypt will reject American democracy assistance – they’re wary of U.S. meddling in internal politics

Shepard 11

Desmond Shepard, 6/14/11, “Egypt says no to US democracy funding”, <http://bikyamasr.com/34746/egypt-says-no-to-us-democracy-funding/>

CAIRO: Egypt’s ruling military council has told 

AND 

the revolution, told The Wall Street Journal.

And, that proves no solvency for the aff – local level is key

Salem 11

Paul Salem, 7/21/11, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, “Consolidating Egyptian Democracy”, <http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=45146&lang=en>

A second very important level of democratisation is 

AND 

to a deep and sustainable democracy in Egypt.

Iran War

No risk of Iran aggression - Prefer our ev 

Kaye 10—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Nora Bensahel—adjunct prof of IR at Georgetown. PhD in pol sci from Stanford—AND—Jerrold D. Green—research professor, USC. PhD in pol sci from U Chicago—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton (Dalia Dassa, Dangerous But Not Omnipotent, Report by RAND for the Airforce and DOD, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.pdf)

Guided by these observations, this study aims 

AND 

to anticipate patterns and variations in Iranian behavior.

No Iran threat---their evidence is blinded by special interests 

Zarrabi 11—conducted lectures and seminars on international affairs, particularly in relation to Iran, with focus on US/Iran issues. President, regional chapter of World Affairs Council of San Diego. Author of 2 books about Iran. (Kam, CRYING WOLF, AGAIN?, 9 June 2011, www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1118.html)

Another round of the annual Israel lobby shindig 

AND 

a compromise with regard to its Palestinian dilemmas.

Iranian influence won’t expand---the plan just causes backlash against the US 

Kaye & Wehrey 11 – Dalia Dassa Kay, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, Senior Policy Analyst at RAND, July-August 2011, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4

Still, although Iran and its allies will 

AND 

jeopardizing their nationalist legitimacy by turning to Iran.

Iran’s too focused on domestic problems and won’t gain influence across the region 

Kaye & Wehrey 11 – Dalia Dassa Kay, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, Senior Policy Analyst at RAND, July-August 2011, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4

Finally, Iran's ability to reap benefits from 

AND 

of the region's people or their new governments.

No Iranian CBWs 

Fitzpatrick 11—Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme The International Institute for Strategic Studies (Mark, Iran's Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Capabilities, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/irans-nuclear-chemical-and-biological-capabilities/press-statement/)

Claims about Iranian strategic-weapons programmes should 

AND 

available public information and may have been exaggerated. 

Heg

U.S. support for further democratization collapses regional hegemony---signals abandonment of allies and refusal to defend status-quo powers---causes Iranian rise  

Bar 11

Shmuel Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, April 2011, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161

The Middle East has gone through eras of 

AND 

of radical ideologies, and Iranian strategic hegemony.

U.S. primacy does nothing to solve global conflicts – even heg good hacks agree. 

Robert Kagan, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund, August/September 2007, The Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html, accessed August 17, 2007

The current order, of course, is 

AND 

other great powers, including the United States.

Their evidence is wrong – three reasons: it hugely overestimates U.S. ability to prevent conflict, underestimates the costs of hegemony (i.e. war) and relies on threat inflation to justify an activist grand strategy 

Christopher Layne, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A & M University, 2006, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present, p. 176-177

A second contention advanced by proponents of American 

AND 

U.S. military intervention in Eurasia.

Econ

Revolution and economic stagnation has sparked an unfettered rejection of capital – no risk of economic growth

Jeremy M. Sharp, 6/17/11, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Egypt in Transition”, <http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/167872.pdf>

Egypt’s economy has contracted since unrest began in 

AND 

disentangling liberalizing reforms from Mubarak-era corruption. 

Alt cause to economic stagnation - subsidies

David Schenker, 7/5/11, senior fellow in Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges: The Economic Priority”, < http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52336&pageid=13&pagename=Analysis>

Egypt’s perennial subsidies are also a significant drag 

AND 

, a practice that has promoted extensive corruption.

Stability

U.S. Funding hurts liberal parties – Islamists use it as a political method to prevent electoral victories

Mohamed Abdelbaky, 8/25/11, Expert for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Egyptian journalist who specializes in democracy and human rights, “The Crisis of External Funding of Egyptian Civil Society”, <http://fikraforum.org/2011/08/the-crisis-of-external-funding-of-egyptian-civil-society/>

So, Egyptian civil society, which is 

AND 

has received, to a much bewildered public.

No constitution means instability inev.

Cairo Institute, 6/9/11, “In the footsteps of the Tunisian revolution: A Constitution first”, <http://www.cihrs.org/English/NewsSystem/Articles/2891.aspx>

The undersigned human rights organizations call on the 

AND 

worker and farmer’s quota in the new constitution.

Now key time to establish Turkey model---their army is subordinate now  

Fishman 11—assistant professor of history at Brooklyn College (Loius, The region’s only real democracy?, 5/8/11 http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/the-region-s-only-real-democracy-1.377104?localLinksEnabled=false)

The Turkish military elite, known for decades 

AND 

and denial of basic rights to the Palestinians.

Turkey model good --- squo solves military control 

Siegel 11—NPR Reporter (Robert, Turkish Democracy: A Model For Other Countries?, 14 April 2011, www.npr.org/2011/04/14/135407687/turkish-democracy-a-model-for-other-countries)

Turkey is an overwhelmingly Muslim country of 73 million people, and an increasingly active power in the Middle East. It occupies a unique position in the region: political, historical, even geographic.

Everyday, thousands of Turks pass through the 

AND 

of becoming a member of the European Union."

Revolutionaries like the counterplan 

TGT 11 (The Gulf Today, No solution in sight, 29 July 2011, gulftoday.ae/portal/fa26d13e-fe2d-4a2c-acd3-ebeed2c6e95f.aspx)

Egypt’s revolutionaries are also looking to a “

AND 

that this must also happen in their country.

Turkey model/leadership solves extinction 

Faulk 11—former emeritus prof of IR at Princeton. (Richard, Global Leadership: American Retreat, BRIC Ambivalence, and Turkey’s Rise, 20 May 2011, www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/20/global-leadership-american-retreat-bric-ambivalence-and-turkeys-rise/)

Note --- Davutoglu = Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey after being the chief advisor to the Prime Minister of Republic of Turkey.

The personal achievements of Davutoglu’s diplomacy have been 

AND 

the peoples of the region and the world.

1NR

AT Iran Sphere of Influence Addon

Iranian influence won’t expand---the plan just causes backlash against the US 

Kaye & Wehrey 11 – Dalia Dassa Kay, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, Senior Policy Analyst at RAND, July-August 2011, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4

Still, although Iran and its allies will 

AND 

jeopardizing their nationalist legitimacy by turning to Iran.

Iran’s too focused on domestic problems and won’t gain influence across the region 

Kaye & Wehrey 11 – Dalia Dassa Kay, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, Senior Policy Analyst at RAND, July-August 2011, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4

Finally, Iran's ability to reap benefits from 

AND 

of the region's people or their new governments.

Signal of weakness inevitable on 6 other issues  

Bar 11---Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy. PhD in the history of the Mid East from Tel-Aviv U (Shmuel, America’s Fading Middle East Influence, 1 April 2011, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161)

The policies of the United States under the 

AND 

for these regimes therefore has been dramatically degraded.

1NR Case

Alt cause to economic stagnation - subsidies

David Schenker, 7/5/11, senior fellow in Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges: The Economic Priority”, < http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52336&pageid=13&pagename=Analysis>

Egypt’s perennial subsidies are also a significant drag 

AND 

, a practice that has promoted extensive corruption.

Deterrence works against bioterrorism now, the impact doesn’t equal nuclear war, and multiple checks prevent spread 

Richard Danzig, Former Secretary of the Navy and Senior Fellow at The CNA Corporation, April 2003, Cardozo Law Review, 24 Cardozo L. Rev. 1497, p. 1510-1511

One of the striking differences (though it 

AND 

world from the traditional 1950's civil defense paradigm.

Their evidence is wrong – three reasons: it hugely overestimates U.S. ability to prevent conflict, underestimates the costs of hegemony (i.e. war) and relies on threat inflation to justify an activist grand strategy 

Christopher Layne, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A & M University, 2006, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present, p. 176-177

A second contention advanced by proponents of American 

AND 

U.S. military intervention in Eurasia.

MENA heg fails --- too many structural barriers to its success --- the transition is stable and regional powers fill in 

Hadar 7/1---former prof of IR at American U and Mount Vernon-College. PhD in IR from American U (1 July 2011, Leon, Saving U.S. Mideast Policy, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556)

You don't have to be a strategic analyst 

AND 

interest in stabilizing Afghanistan and containing the rivalries.

Signal of weakness inevitable on 6 other issues  

Bar 11---Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy. PhD in the history of the Mid East from Tel-Aviv U (Shmuel, America’s Fading Middle East Influence, 1 April 2011, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161)

The policies of the United States under the 

AND 

for these regimes therefore has been dramatically degraded.

2NC

DA

Warming exists

Overwhelming scientific consensus for warming 

Zachary Shahan, holds both a BA in Environmental Studies and Sociology from New College of Florida and a masters degree in City and Regional Planning from UNC at Chapel Hill, Writer for Clean Technica, 2/26/10, Climate Change: What Percentage of Scientists, Climate Scientists and the General Public Believe in It?, http://cleantechnica.com/2010/02/26/climate-change-what-percentage-of-scientists-climate-scientists-and-the-general-public-believe-in-it/

One issue that keeps arising lately is if 

AND 

say the same for the general public yet.

Impact Calc---High Risk of Asia War/AT: Defense---2NC 

Brink of Korean war now---fast timeframe and high probability

SHANNON DOYNE 10 and HOLLY EPSTEIN OJALVO NYT Blog Writers, "On the Brink: Teaching About Tension in North and South Korea" Dec 3 learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/on-the-brink-teaching-about-tension-in-north-and-south-korea/?src=twrhp

On the Brink: Teaching About Tension in 

AND 

North Korea has a new uranium enriching program.

War on the Korean peninsula = extinction

Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

At worst, there is the possibility of 

AND 

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

Failure to pass SKFTA will wreck the alliance—seen as a major betrayal

Lee 8-29, Chi Dong, YonHap News Agency, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap) 

AND 

commitment to Korea and Northeast Asia is declining."

Turns case Failure to pass the deal annihilates US credibility

Palmer 9/6  Doug Palmer "UPDATE 2-PREVIEW-U.S. trade deals face tricky approval path" Sept 6 www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/06/usa-trade-congress-idUSN1E7851P420110906

Failure to pass the trade deals would hurt 

AND 

but in other international negotiations," Schwab said. 

And, failure destroys overall leadership---collapses relations with all our allies

Seth Mandel 10 12/29 www.weeklyblitz.net/1192/what-obama-refusal-to-enact-the-colombia-trade

If Obama is unable to do that, 

AND 

then we can't be counted on, period.

Hard power decline inevitable---the US has to compensate w/soft power---SKFTA is key

Doug Bandow 10 is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute "South Korea Free Trade Agreement Key to Prosperity and Security" Oct 19 2010 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12488

Expanding trade ties offers geopolitical advantages as well

AND 

make it easier for its people to trade.

AT: U

Votes coming now---it’s only a question of administration leverage and maintaining bipart 

Garza 9/4 Antonio O. Garza is the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico "Time to act on free-trade agreements" www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Time-to-act-on-free-trade-agreements-2153301.php

The long-pending free trade agreements with 

AND 

effort that trade liberalization measures have invariably required.

Momentum should be the filter---their evidence is all just a snapshot---60 votes will be there for TAA and the FTA---any opposition just proves why PC is key

Barkley 9/7 Tom, WSJ, "GOP Hopes Tariff Bill Pressures Obama" online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576557302254955170.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

House Republicans sought Wednesday to kick-start 

AND 

and submit the FTAs as soon as possible."

Votes coming now---it’s only a question of administration leverage and maintaining bipart 

Garza 9/4 Antonio O. Garza is the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico "Time to act on free-trade agreements" www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Time-to-act-on-free-trade-agreements-2153301.php

The long-pending free trade agreements with 

AND 

effort that trade liberalization measures have invariably required.

TAA and SKFTA will both pass within the next month---it’s top of the agenda

DN 9/9 Donga News "US Congress takes first step toward FTA ratification" english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=020000&biid=2011090955668

The U.S. Congress unanimously extended 

AND 

the earliest or next month at the latest.

AT: no link

1. a. Congress has to authorize reallocations and they backlash 

Josh Rogin 11 “Lugar holding up State Department funds for Tunisian democracy” April 6 thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/06/lugar_holding_up_state_department_funds_for_tunisian_democracy

The State Department wants to shift resources toward 

AND 

another source of the money could be found.

1. b. Congress still backlashes

Stone & Bendery 11 Andrea Stone is senior national correspondent for The Huffington Post AND Jennifer Bendery is Roll Call's White House correspondent "Obama Middle East Speech: President Will Announce Billions In Economic Aid to Egypt, Tunisia" 5/18 www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html

None of the money requires new spending from 

AND 

surface with similar objections to erasing Egypt's debt.

Plan unpopular 

Adams 11—Professor in the US Foreign Policy Program at the School of International Service, American University. Was Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget, the senior White House budget official for national security—and—Rebecca Williams—Research Associate for the Henry L. Stimson Center's Budgeting for Foreign Affairs and Defense program. (Gordon, A New Way Forward, March 2011, www.stimson.org/images/uploads/A_New_Way_Forward_Final.pdf)

The need for flexibility and agility: A 

AND 

have lengthy bureaucratic processes for developing such plans.   

Capital is key to TAA and passage 

Kim 7/6 Sukhan Kim, senior partner at the law firm of Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in Washington, D.C., KOREA JOONGANG DAILY, “[Viewpoint] Endgame for Korus”, http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2938477

Four years after striking an initial deal with 

AND 

- and job growth from exports - strategy. 

PC key

McLarty & Cunningham 1/24  chief of staff to Clinton in 1993-94 and helped bring Bill Daley into the White House to lead the 1993 Nafta ratification effort, AND Cunningham was an aide to President Clinton and to then-Sen. Joseph Biden 1/24/11, Thomas "Mack" McLarty III and Nelson W. Cunningham, “Obama's Free Trade Opportunity” 

Much has been written about Bill Daley's selection 

AND 

enough to remain the global economy's True North.

Cred

U

Diplomacy and multilat high now 

Brimmer 11---Assistant Secretary, International Organization Affairs, US State Dept. PhD in IR, Oxford  (Esther, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation: The Obama Administration's Progress, 1 Feb. 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 

Two years into President Obama’s first term, 

AND 

place upon it in the decades to come. 

Link---General---2NC *

All our links are unique---the key question is whether the U.S. is perceived as further supporting revolutions 

Bar 11 – Shmuel Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, April 2011, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161

If the impression of American support for popular 

AND 

for the Jihadi-Salafi movement in Iraq.

The plan creates audience costs that force the U.S. into supporting revolution broadly throughout the Arab world 

Gause 11 – F. Gregory Gause III, Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont, July/August 2011, “Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4

In recent decades, Arab leaders, most 

AND 

such as Bahrain, crush peaceful democratic protests.

The perception of the plan destroys regional leadership: 

The plan turns the U.S. into a revisionist power---it’s perceived as subverting the regional security architecture 

Smith 11 – Lee Smith, senior editor at The Weekly Standard, Summer 2011, “Weakening Washington's Middle East Influence,” Middle East Quarterly, p. 3-10 

For more than half a century, Washington 

AND 

confirmed the Iranian view of the Middle East.

Even the fear of greater popular influence on policy will collapse U.S. grand strategy in the region 

Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, March 15, 2011, “A Short-Lived Arab Spring?,” online: http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/15/a_short_lived_arab_spring

So if you believed that the events in 

AND 

is going to be needed -- and soon. 

2NC - CP

Only the CP solves, not the plan---good will alone gets pocketed

Mowbray 11 Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow

AND

on-the-nile/?page=all

One idea being discussed is ensuring that Egypt

AND

to the West - and closed to Iran.

With freer and increased trade on the table

AND

, but also Iran and other terrorist entities.

What’s clear is that Egypt cannot be trusted

AND

, the urge to pander will be strong.

One of the first major actions of the

AND

. hopes for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

That move could be seen as simultaneously playing

AND

effective leverage won’t come through good will alone.

Egypt’s future contains many question marks, but

AND

won’t let Egypt slip away without a fight.

The CP avoids politics and solves the case better---the plan and perm kill US cred by making it look like the US is cow-towing to the new Egyptian government---explicit conditions are key to preventing Israel war

Elman 11 Arik Elman is an Israeli political

AND

-israeli-conflict-be-avoided/

Probably the most shocking development following the Egyptian

AND

its case for a good relationship with Egypt”.

Since then, in the writings of the

AND

America must force them to see the light.

In his recent opus, former Ambassador Daniel

AND

must become aggressive in its dealings with Israel.

To be sure, the pro-Israeli

AND

with Ambassador Glaspie on July 25, 1990.

What is apparent from the whole inane liberal

AND

” or “revise” its provisions unilaterally.

As for the Palestinian issue, the language

AND

governing authority”, not unlike the current PA.

The often-brandished “Egyptian pride”,

AND

airfields, is simply too preposterous to discuss.

As for the containment of Hamas, Article

AND

Sinai border, they should consider the costs.

So should Obama. Perhaps this would be

AND

international order will be put on the line.

Of course, it is not as if

AND

refrain from inciting hostility against Israel and Jews.

Dan Kurtzer’s disastrous advice notwithstanding, President Obama

AND

war, which he will otherwise own completely.

The MB will say yes because of international perception concerns---foreign investors will look to the QPQ to guage the MB’s legitimacy, and the MB will say yes because they don’t want to isolate themselves---this is better than friendly gestures

Byman 11 Daniel is a Professor in the

AND

-brotherhood-comes-to-power/

But the Brotherhood also has behaved peacefully.

AND

ElBaradei, fearing to alienate the international community.

To encourage future moderation, the U.

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encouraging them to adopt even more radical policies.

The plan is predicated on mollifying which is only reactive to their degree of pragmatism---the CP is a policy of carrots and sticks that solves better

Wickham 11 Carrie Rosefsky Wickham is associate professor

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brotherhood-after-mubarak?page=show

The Brotherhood has demonstrated that it is capable

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. No democratic transition can succeed without it.

Solves the Brotherhood advantage---their Duss evidence is about whether the U.S. recognizes the Brotherhood, not the plan---middle of their card

Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Recognizing Reality in the Middle East”, Center for American Progress Report, 7-1, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html)

It’s quite true that Islamist parties base much

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the legitimate resistance to Western-backed authoritarianism.

Increasing engagement with Islamist political actors is clearly

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in his historic Cairo speech in June 2009.

 “America respects the right of all

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they govern with respect for all their people.”

But, President Obama continued, “government

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workings of the political process above your party.”

Secretary Clinton reiterated these conditions on Thursday,

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the full inclusion of women in any democracy.”

Secretary Clinton’s comments recognize that Islamist parties such

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revert to their most extreme positions once elected.

Iraq is the first Arab country where Islamist

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the constituencies to which they were now accountable.

Iraq is still bedeviled by enormous problems.

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do not appear to be among those problems.

While the United States must support principles of

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on selecting the people who should run them.

Any genuine commitment to the development of legitimate

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sometimes even hostile to, the United States.

But if we’re serious about democracy, there’s

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Secretary Clinton’s comments were a step in that direction

Their other Duss card explicitly supports the CP and makes zero mention of the plan

Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)

I agree that U.S. has

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is a great way not to achieve that.

While it’s true that Hamas considers itself the

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Friedersdorf took a deeper look at this yesterday.)

As for whether Gaza today provides a good

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might come to look like Gaza under Hamas.

I think a better example of how the

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the establishment of an Islamic caliphate isn’t one.

In a new Foreign Affairs piece analyzing the

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Brotherhood, Emory University’s Carrie Rosefsky Wickham writes:

Those who emphasize the risk of “Islamic

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to which the group has changed over time.

Wickham concludes, “The Brotherhood has demonstrated

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citizens are guaranteed certain freedoms under the law”:

In the foreign policy domain, the Brotherhood

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. No democratic transition can succeed without it.

We obviously shouldn’t be sanguine about what the

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We should start getting used to that idea.

CP solves credibility

Super 11 David A. Super, a

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its influence in Egypt" Aug 23  LA Times

The U.S. role in Egypt

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been committed to the nation since Mubarak fell.

We can't allow Egyptian leaders to hide behind

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words about freedom and human rights were hollow.

To date, the U.S.

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Syrians as they risked their lives for democracy.

The Arab media have mocked the Obama administration's

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Saudi troops to savagely crush peaceful democracy demonstrations.

This month's brutal crackdown in Tahrir Square came

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appropriators overrode concerns about Egypt's human rights record.

But it is not too late. The

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democracy in the heart of the Arab world.

Congress explicitly wants the CP over the plan---they hate aid, the support using assistance to extract Egyptian concessions but want to cut aid

Francis 11 David Francis is a reporter based

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on-our-Dole.aspx#page1

As violence rages in Libya and antigovernment protests

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Bahrain – that are now targets of protesters.

There is growing pressure on Capitol Hill to

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governments to adopt reforms in this explosive region.

“We’ve been slow, a day late

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convinced we’ll be doing that,” Volker said.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex

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total $1.6 trillion this year.

“Borrowing money from China — or printing

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increasingly feeling the pain of our economic crisis.”

Plan triggers politics but CP avoids it

Mowbray 11 Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow

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on-the-nile/?page=all

For the first time in a generation,

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Islamist axis with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Recent events show how quickly the pendulum can

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the Rafah border with Hamas-controlled Gaza.

The timing was as significant as the action

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extract additional concessions in exchange for continued loyalty.

While the administration remains silent for now, Congress is looking to push back.

No one has formally introduced legislation yet,

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over billions without applying significant pressure on Cairo.

“We must do all we can to

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explains Sen. Mark Kirk, Illinois Republican.

Mr. Kirk, who has a long

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to stem the flow of weapons into Gaza.”

Rep. Steven R. Rothman, New

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our national interests [being] addressed properly.”

Perception of US interference will taint recipients and destroy Egyptian relations

Cook 11 Steven A. Cook is the

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us-cant-hijack-egypts-revolution

Policy analysts and democracy-promotion specialists are

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incentives for foreign investment and increased bilateral trade.

Sounds wonderful — in theory. But it's

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lighter touch and a certain amount of humility.

The main reason is that Egyptians remain distrustful

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new Egypt that President Barack Obama's administration wants.