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Northwestern Lee Vellayappan Aff

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09/17/11

  • GSU Doubles 2AC

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Wichitaw BM | Judge:


    • 2AC Oil
      Probability—China is highest risk for great power war
      Bisley 7 [Nick Bisley is Senior Lecturer in the Faculty of Business and Economics at Monash University, “The Cold War” in An Introduction to International Relations: Australian Perspectives, Ed. Richard Devetak, Anthony Burke and Jim George, pp 233]
      Three of the … the international system.

      AT: Dedev

      We’re on the verge of a global consciousness shift towards biospheric empathy-makes growth environmentally sustainable and solves every impact-collapse now destroys the transition
      Rifkin 10 – Jeremy Rifkin, President of the Foundation on Economic Trends, January 11, 2010, “'The Empathic Civilization': Rethinking Human Nature in the Biosphere Era,” online: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeremy-rifkin/the-empathic-civilization_b_416589.html
      The pivotal turning …countries and continents.

      Environmental benefits from economic decline are short-term and small-downturn massively increases overall environmental damage  
      Bauer and Anbumozhi 10 – Armin Bauer, Senior Economist at the Asian Development Bank, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Capacity-Building Specialist at the Asian Development Bank Institute, July 2010, “Impact of Global Recession on Sustainable Development and Poverty Linkages,” online: http://www.adbi.org/files/2010.07.08.wp227.impact.global.recession.dev.poverty.linkages.pdf
      The global financial …. of the poor.

      Growth key to solve disease
      Mahmoud et al 6 – Adel Mahmoud, Senior Molecular Biologist in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, former President of Merck Vaccines, et al., 2006, THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON INFECTIOUS DISEASE EMERGENCE AND CONTROL: Exploring the Consequences and Opportunities,” online: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11588&page=80
      Changes in travel … medicine in particular.

      Collapse is worse for all their impacts-causes extinction of every other species and then humans
      Monbiot 9 – George Monbiot, columnist for The Guardian, has held visiting fellowships or professorships at the universities of Oxford (environmental policy), Bristol (philosophy), Keele (politics), Oxford Brookes (planning), and East London (environmental science, August 17, 2009, “Is there any point in fighting to stave off industrial apocalypse?,” online: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2009/aug/17/environment-climate-change
      The interesting question, … of political restraint.

      Even dedev hacks concede the transition causes multiple regional nuclear wars
      Lewis 98 – Chris H. Lewis, Professor of American Studies at the University of Colorado-Boulder, 1998, in The Coming Age of Scarcity, ed Dobkowski and Wallimann, p 56-57
      Most critics would …of global civilization.

      Sino-Indian War Impact
      Absent Libyan oil buffering shocks cause Sino-Indian war
      UPI 9 – United Press International, December 30, 2009, “China’s navy mulls push into Arabian Sea,” online: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2009/12/30/Chinas-navy-mulls-push-into-Arabian-Sea/UPI-24731262213319/
      China's growing naval … long-distance operations.

      Goes global and nuclear
      Kahn 9 – Jeremy Kahn, writer for Newsweek, October 19, 2009, “Why India Fears China,” online: http://www.newsweek.com/id/217088
      The implications for …repeat of 1962."

      2AC Credibility
      Heg deters terrorism – the LOSS of heg is the only scenario in which non-state groups could seriously threaten U.S. security
      Stephen Walt, the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Spring 2002, Naval War College Review, Vol. LV, No. 2, p. 11-12
      Perhaps the most … to live without.

      The U.S. won’t mess with China to retain primacy
      Robert J. Lieber, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown University, 2005, The American Era: Power and Strategy for the 21st Century, p. 47
      Ultimately, however, the … the U.S. militarily.

      2AC ASPEC
      1) Federal government is central government
      Websters 76 – New International Dictionary Unabridged, 1976, p. 833.
      Federal government. Of … states or provinces).

      That’s true for foreign policy
      Kegley and Wittkopf 1 – World Politics, 8th Ed. 2001 Chapter 3, Foreign Policy Decision Making, pp. 53 – 83 Charles W. Kegley, Jr., is a founding partner of Kegley International, Secretary of the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. Research Associate at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University, he also is Distinguished Pearce Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of South Carolina. Recipient of the Distinguished Scholar Award in Foreign Policy of the International Studies Association, Pew Faculty Fellow at Harvard University. Eugene R. Wittkopf was the R. Downs Poindexter Professor Emeritus at Louisiana State University. In 2002 he received the Distinguished Scholar Award of the Foreign Policy Section of the International Studies Association.
      Rational Actor Decision… makes rational choices.

      2AC T – Governance (Long)
      We meet – “democratic governance” is democracy assistance
      Atlantic Council 8 (Non-partisan network of leaders who stimulate dialogue and discussion about critical international issues with a view to enriching public debate and promoting consensus on appropriate responses in the Administration, the Congress, the corporate and nonprofit sectors, and the media in the United States and among leaders in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”, Jan 5, http://www.acus.org/publication/enhancing-democracy-assistance)
      This report offers …specific recommendations for each.

      Counter-interpretation – Democracy assistance includes rule of law, civil society, elections, and governance-this is the most precise
      Edward R. McMahon 2 Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science, Binghamton University "Assessing USAID’s Assistance for Democratic Development: Quantity Versus Quality?" cdp.binghamton.edu/papers/usaid-apsa-full.html
      III. Defining Democracy Assistance
      The concept of assistance for democratic development has become increasingly accepted over the years by the international community. Key actors, in addition to USAID, have included major bilateral donor organizations, such as DFID in the U.K; the German political party foundations, or Stiftung; the European Union; Nordic donors; and the United Nations Development Program. Even the World Bank, which for a long time interpreted its articles of association to bar it from being engaged in "political" activities, has come a long way towards toward accepting the inter-related nature of political and economic reform. No longer does it, for example, have to use obscuring economics terminology such as "rent-seeking" when discussing anti-corruption activities. To cite just one example, a recent World Bank-sponsored report notes that democratically elected governments were successful in implementing adjustment programs in 52% of the cases studied, and failed in only 29% of the cases. v
      Donor agencies may differ somewhat in their definition of democracy assistance, and some may direct their resources towards one or two sub-categories. The model developed by USAID (as expressed in the Agency Objectives found at http://www.usaid.gov/democracy/dgso.html) covers many of the areas addressed by donors. It is divided into 4 main sub-categories. These areas of focus include rule of law, civil society, elections and political processes, and governance.

      b. Education – governance assistance is the crucial question in Libya
      Vandewalle 11 (Dirk, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College, USA, and author of A History of Modern Libya, Cambridge University Press, July 11, “Transition toward Democracy in Libya: a Cautionary Tale”, http://www.ispionline.it/it/documents/Commentary_Vandewalle_11.07.2011.pdf)
      As the civil … any alternative take hold.
      2AC Nayar K
      Democratic engagement is key to recalibrate imperialist representations
      Sadiki 11 is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004). "The mathematics of the Arab Spring" Jun 6 2011 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html
      Egypt and Tunisia…… of self-empowerment.

      Perm do the plan and all non-competitive parts of the alt

      Framing around institutional action creates the space for effective localism-but not the other way around
      George Monbiot, journalist, academic, and political activist, 2004, Manifesto for a New World Order, p. 11-13
      The quest for global … it requires for its survival.

      Purely local critique strengthens the powerful-doesn’t spill over
      Carl Boggs, Professor of Social Sciences and Film Studies at National University, Los Angeles, 1997, Theory & Society, Vol. 27, p. 760-761
      Grassroots politics, of …. of power.40
      2AC NED CP
      Libya is unique – no backlash because of successful Qaddafi overthrow
      Negus 8/22 (Steve, freelance journalist based in Cairo, 2011, “Can Libya Win the Peace?”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/can_libya_win_the_peace?page=full)
      The combination of … fighters on the ground. 

      Backlash argument is empirically disproven
      Haas 9/8 (Lawrence J, 2011, “The stakes are far too high for America to sit on the sidelines”, http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/09/08/2174850/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html)
      Critics often caution … surely should try.

      Plan key to solve terror – USFG signal key
      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122
      Admittedly, in many … the long war.

      NATO Add-On
      US failure to lead in democracy assistance destroys NATO
      Bolton 8/1 (John R. Bolton is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, “Obama's Libya Missteps Imperil NATO's Future”, August 1, 2011, http://www.aei.org/article/103935)
      The collapse of … Libya has ended.

      NATO cred key to solve war
      BASIC 10 – British American Security Information Council  (British American Security Information Council, January 2010, http://www.basicint.org/pubs/BASIC-MindtheGapNATOnuclear.pdf, 6/29/10, TW)
      Assurance exists alongside …to ignore this.



09/18/11

  • Economy Advantage

    • Tournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: Loyola | Judge: Spring


    • Plan solves US growth
      Schenkel 8/22 (Andrew, political reporter for MNN, 2011, “Stability in Libya could be economic stimulus for United States”, http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/energy/blogs/stability-in-libya-could-be-economic-stimulus-for-united-states)
      Moammar Gadhafi's time ... "Gadhafi's Gone" party.

      Best studies prove decline causes war
      Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
      Less intuitive is ... to those views.

      That eliminates the only rational incentives for war
      Gartzke 11 Erik Gartzke is an associate Professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF "SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD" www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/
      Almost as informative...stabilization and reconstruction.



10/03/11
10/03/11
10/03/11

  • Islamophobia Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Racialized hatred drives American cultural attitudes towards Islam-Islamophobia is based on preconceived notions of the Middle East that authorize epistemic violence and essentialization of Muslims-global cultural engagement is key to solving
      Garrett 11 Dr. Greg Garrett, professor of English at Baylor University Ph.D. in English from Oklahoma State University "Fighting Islamophobia with Information" Aug 17 www.patheos.com/Resources/Additional-Resources/Fighting-Islamophobia-with-Information-Greg-Garrett-08-18-2011.html?print=1
      Earlier this year, …an essential need.

      Islamophobia isn’t an unified idea-rather, it has synthetized differing conceptions of Islam into a variety of strategies for hatred and demonization
      Poynting and Mason 7 Scott Poynting is Senior Lecturer in Sociology of Education at University of Western Sydney and Director of Centre West AND Victoria Mason is a Fellow at the Australian Centre, University of Melbourne. "The resistible rise of Islamophobia : Anti-Muslim racism in the UK and Australia before 11 September 2001" Journal of Sociology 2007 43: 61 SAGE
      Like all ideology, …. (O'Brien, 2000: 1).

      This form of racialized hatred will manifest itself in mass violence cultural protectionism
      Hermann 9/10 Lynn Hermann Digital Journal"Report: Islamophobia ‘echoes past witch hunts’ in US history" Sept 10 2011 www.digitaljournal.com/article/311358
      Wealthy donors …. values of religious liberty.

      American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down the clash of civilization discourse that causes Islamophobia-empirics prove that effective democracy promotion disaggregated from hard-line Iraq-style invasion has a positive effect-and, even if it doesn’t succeed it’s productive to advocate and debate
      SHIBLEY TELHAMI 5, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley
      I think we all agree that, …on the other side.

      Student debates over MENA policy need to use empirical evidence to assess likelihood of policy success-this spills over to better policymaking-failure to embrace this framework creates a policy vacuum that’s filled with conservative ideology which causes the Iraq war and torture of terror suspects
      Anderson 3 – Lisa Anderson, Dean of the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, former President of the Middle East Studies Association, November 2003, online: http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/871
      Yet, there is far more that … the United States.

      This has to take place in the policy realm-government responses to Middle East democratization are a crucial driver of cultural attitudes towards Islam and people of the MENA region-now is a key time to engage the discussion
      Brookings 11 “What Does the American Public Think of the Arab Awakening?” May 22 www.brookings.edu/events/2011/0522_arab_awakening.aspx
      In light of the divisive …for the uprisings.

      Academic debates can affect policy
      David Bukay 7 is a lecturer in the school of political science at the University of Haifa. “Can There Be an Islamic Democracy?” Middle East QuarterlySpring 2007, pp. 71-79 www.meforum.org/1680/can-there-be-an-islamic-democracy
      While time has … 2003 interview.[41]

      Democratic engagement is vital to recalibrate racist representations-the aff’s politics of goodwill and disavowal of authoritarianism through unconditional aid is crucial to break down cultural protectionism and create avenues for cultural hybridity-the alt alone reinscribes orientalism by presuming that the Arab world can’t accept aid without being manipulated.  
      Dr Larbi Sadiki 11 is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004). "The mathematics of the Arab Spring" Jun 6 2011 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html
      Egypt and Tunisia …of self-empowerment.

      And, the presumption that exporting democracy is dangerous is only political blackmail to prevent genuine political reforms-the aff facilitates an exchange of political values that can synthesize commensurable relationships
      Dr. Larbi Sadiki 9 Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, Rethinking Arab Democratization: Elections Without Democracy, p. 279
      Arab states and …. and external dynamics.



10/03/11

  • Credibility Adv New Version

    • Tournament: Clay | Round: Octafinals | Opponent: Gonzaga | Judge:

    •  

      US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya’s key

      Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, ) …

      Libya is perhaps the first of such “…of the Egyptian people. It seemed to work.

       

      Transparent governance aid is vital – it reinvigorates our credibility by aligning foreign policy with American ideals

      Allen 11 (Michael, Democracy Digest, January 30, “Reconciling ideals and interests in promoting Arab democracy”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/reconciling-ideals-and-interests-in-promoting-arab-democracy)

      “The best guarantee of stability is …democracy are now, finally, aligned.”

       

      Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – inaction symbolizes US impotence and hurts other movements

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, )

      The future of Libya was never terribly important … to mention friendly to the West.

       

      US leadership’s key to effective regional democracy --- solves war

      John Guardiano 11, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring

      There is, after all, a democratic revolution underway …in Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. Now.

       

      Restrains aggression and adventurism

      Ray Takeyh 11 is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “What Democracy Could Bring”, 2-4, http://www.usmep.us/usmep/2011/02/14/what-democracy-could-bring/

      What is unfolding in Arab streets is not an assertion of …toward arresting impetuous impulses.

       

      The impact’s nuclear and biological war in every global hotspot

      Ziad Asali 9, President and Founder of the American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16

      Improving relations with Muslim majority …home or other critical challenges abroad.

       

      WWIII

      The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html

      Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War is apt …will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.

       

      Obama must take the lead in Libya – status quo exacerbates perceptions of his weakness

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, )

      As revolutionary movements steamroll across …remembered for during this historical moment.

       

      That causes nuke war --- now is key for Obama to show leadership

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

      The disease of a weak president usually begins with the Achilles’ heel all …The status quo is simply not an option.

       

      Solves Russia lashout, China war, Indo-Pak conflict, Latin American instability

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness …the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows whom it will bite or when.

       

      Russia expansionism causes nuke war

      Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then …on their neighbors or their own people.172

       

      Latin American war draws in great powers

      James Francis Rochlin, 1994. Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College. “Discovering the Americas: the evolution of Canadian foreign policy towards Latin America,” p. 130-131.

      While there were economic motivations …resolution, such as Contadora, as will be discussed in the next chapter.

       

      China war causes extinction

      Strait Times 2K (The Straits Times (Singapore), “No one gains in war over Taiwan”, June 25, 2000, L/N)

      The doomsday scenario THE high-intensity scenario …entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

       

      Indo-Pak war causes nuclear Armageddon

      Praful Bidwai 8, International The News, 12-26-08, http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=153861

      Any India-Pakistan conflict is liable to …India, with consequences too horrifying even to contemplate. 




10/10/11

  • Terrorism Adv

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    •  

      al-Qaeda will attack with WMD by 2013 – they have the means and motive now

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

      We should be especially worried …when they put their minds to it.”

                                                                                                                                           

      Plan’s democratic signal key – destroys the global AQAM movement

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Another immediate counterterrorism challenge … movement over time to those who have yet to be radicalized.

       

      Extinction

      Hellman 8 [Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf]

      The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much …World War III is a necessity—not an option.

       

      Independently, US inaction collapses Libyan goodwill

      Lamen 11 (Fadel, President, American-Libyan Council, 7/14, “LIBYA: THINKING AHEAD TO THE TRANSITION”, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/071411_transcript_LibyaTransition.pdf)

      And so while the TNC, with all the …, who cannot be creative, who cannot lead so he can lead them.

       

      That triggers massive AQIM spread in Libya

      Pelham 11 (Nicolas, author of A New Muslim Order: Iraq and the Revival of Shia Islam. He has reported on the Arab world for twenty years and currently writes for The Economist, “ Bogged Down in Libya,” April 14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/may/12/bogged-down-libya/?page=3)

      For much of the twentieth century, the people of Darna revived this clash with the outside …Libyan Islamic Fighting Group on its terrorist blacklist.

       

      Ensures bioterror attack on the US

      Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Al-Qaeda and The Plague,” )

      The report that some forty al-Qaeda terrorists died after the bubonic …must eliminate threats before they mature.

       

      Extinction

      Ochs 2 (Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately” 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)

      Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the …hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.  




11/11/11

  • 2AC Econ K

    • Tournament: KY | Round: Octas | Opponent: CSU Fullerton | Judge:


    • Every credible measure of study shows violence is down because of trade and democracy -it’s only a question of sustaining current dynamics and preventing shocks to the system
      Pinker 11 Steven Pinker is Professor of psychology at Harvard University "Violence Vanquished" Sept 24 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html
      On the day … electronic global village.

      Economic justifications are inevitable - rejecting them destroys public support and viability of the alt
      Thomas Assheuer  2k Editor of Die Zeit and Jacques Derrida Professor of Humanities, UC Irvine, Founder and President, International College of Philosophy (CIPH) and Director of Studies, School of Advanced Study in the Social Sciences (EHESS), Paris 2000 “Intellectual Courage: An Interview” Culture Machine, Vol 2
      Q: In your … to my publications.

      Economic methodology is good - it’s key to making accurate and progressive predictions in policy debates - any alt fails
      Gregory R. Beabout 2008 is an adjunct fellow of the Center for Economic Personalism and Associate Professor of Philosophy at Saint Louis University Challenges to Using the Principle of Subsidiarity for Environmental Policy;  5 U. St. Thomas L.J. 210 (2008)
      Economics offers many… attention to them.

      Economics is good and key to solving multiple scenarios for extinction - the alt is debilitating, won’t get off the ground, and the K doesn’t access a root cause or turn the case
      DANIEL M. HAUSMAN 2006 Prof @ University of Wisconsin MICHAEL S. McPHERSON @ The Spencer Foundation, Economic Analysis, Moral Philosophy, and Public Policy, accessed online p279]
      There are many… economics and ethics.



10/18/11

  • 2AC Orientalism

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to improve policymaking-the K’s abstractions cedes the political
      Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/
      Academics can make…it might wish.

      Our impacts are real and the K isn’t the root cause of them-the K essentializes the east/west binary and reinscribes orientalism by stripping the region of agency
      Ray Kiely 95 Lecturer in Development Studies, University of East London. “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism” Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 25 No. 2
      Nevertheless, the point…Brenner 1991: 134).

      Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action – heterosexism doesn’t cause violence
      John Moore 4 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace,  44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis
      If major interstate … increased or decreased? 

      The alt’s all-or-nothing choice fails - small reforms like the plan are key to institutional change and getting others to sign on to the alt
      Erik Olin Wright 7, Vilas Distinguished Professor of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin, “Guidelines for Envisioning Real Utopias”, Soundings, April, www.ssc.wisc.edu/wright/Published%20writing/Guidelines-soundings.pdf
      5. Waystations
      The final guideline…in the future.

      No risk of lash-out – institutional safeguards check
      Allen Buchanan 7, Professor of Philosophy and Public Policy at Duke, 2007 (Preemption: military action and moral justification, pg. 128)
      The intuitively plausible … preventive-war justification. 

      Libya’s calling for the plan – no backlash
      Hamid 10/1 (Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 2011, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1)
      This same logic … would be most effective.

      US engagement is effective and key to democratic consolidation-the K results in disengagement and isolation that triggers their backlash DA  
      David J. Kramer 11 is president of Freedom House, a nonprofit democracy watchdog organization, and Arch Puddington is the director of research at the Freedom House. "Cold War shows American isolationism not the answer in 2011" Aug 04 2011 www.alaskadispatch.com/article/cold-war-shows-american-isolationism-not-answer-2011
      The debate about … should “come home.”

      Democracy assistance is effective and rejection causes political atrophy that turns the K-be skeptical of their method-democracy promotion needs to be made better and more responsive to local conditions, not rejected out of hand
      Youngs 11 – Richard Youngs, President, Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior, a think tank based in Madrid; Assistant Professor of Politics & International Studies at the University of Warwick, January 2011, “Misunderstanding the Maladies of Liberal Democracy Promotion,” online: http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf
      Democracy promotion has… their required improvement.

      The US has a necessary and positive role to play in global democratization-assistance can resolve historical US hypocrisy and break down authoritarianism
      James Traub 9 is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author The Freedom Agenda p6-8
      Democracy does not…our deepest principles.



10/18/11
0

  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Aff: Northwestern LV

      Round # 4  Tournament: Wake

      vs:Michigan AL

      Judge: Alex Parkinson

       

       

      Plan Text

       

       

      1ac Advantages

      Same Stability and credibility

      New France Adv

       

      2ac Offense

      New Terrorism Add-On

       

      1ar Strategy

       

       

      2ar Strategy

      Top of the 2ar was terrorism outweighs

      Aid now

      Aff: Northwestern LV

      Round #1   Tournament: Wake Forest Shirley

      vs: UNT KP

      Judge: Seungwon Chung

       

       

      Plan Text

      Same as Wiki

       

       

      1ac Advantages

      Stability

      Terrorism

      Credibility

       

       

      2ac Offense

      Failed States Add-on

       

      1ar Strategy

      Conditionality extended

       

      2ar Strategy

      Went for Permutation on the K




11/11/11

  • Shirley 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1AC – NU LV

      The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya

       

      Contention 1: Stability

       

      US just gave aid to Libya – more to come

      Sorcher 10/18 (Sarah, Covers national security and foreign policy as a staff reporter for National Journal, 10/18/2011, “Clinton Arrives in Libya, Pledges More Aid to Secure Weapons and Help Wounded”, http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/clinton-arrives-in-libya-pledges-more-aid-to-secure-weapons-and-help-wounded-20111018)

      Secretary of State… planning terrorist attacks.

       

      It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not cash

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said … and peaceful democracy.

       

      Civil war likely in Libya now

      Halpern 11/4 (Micah, 2011, “Muammar Gaddafi void opens civil war threat”, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/muammar-gaddafi-void-opens-civil-war-threat/story-e6frg6ux-1226185048998)

      MUAMMAR Gaddafi is…do it quickly.

       

      Plan prevents Libya from civil war and warlordism

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall …long and rocky.

       

      Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )

      Scott told Progressive … seemed in early 1914.

       

      Contention 2: Terrorism

       

      al-Qaeda will attack with WMD by 2013

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

      We should be … minds to it.”

                                                                                                         

      Plan’s democratic signal key – prevents global terrorism

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Another immediate … to be radicalized.

       

      Extinction

      Hellman 8 [Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf]

      The threat of …not an option.

       

      Independently, causes a bioterror attack on the US

      Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Al-Qaeda and The Plague,” )

      The report that … before they mature.

       

      Extinction

      Ochs 2 (Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately” 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)

      Of all the … IS NOW POSSIBLE. 

      Contention 3: Credibility

       

      US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya’s key

      Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)

      Libya is perhaps…seemed to work.

       

      Transparent governance aid is vital – it reinvigorates our credibility by aligning foreign policy with American ideals

      Allen 11 (Michael, Democracy Digest, January 30, “Reconciling ideals and interests in promoting Arab democracy”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/reconciling-ideals-and-interests-in-promoting-arab-democracy)

      “The best guarantee …now, finally, aligned.”

       

      That’s key to effective hegemony

      Finnemore 9 – Martha Finnemore, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, January 2009, “Legitimacy, Hypocrisy, and the Social Structure of Unipolarity: Why Being a Unipole Isn’t All It’s Cracked Up to Be,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1

      The strength of …or bank accounts.

       

      That solves nuclear war and extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

      Events in Libya … Century now unfolding.

       

      Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – inaction symbolizes US impotence and hurts other movements

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, )

      The future of … to the West.

       

      Now key to restore credibility – plan does it

      May 10/21 (Donald R, BS, with High Honors and Distinction in Microbiology, in 1968 from the University of Illinois, Champaign, and his MD from the University of Illinois College of Medicine, Chicago, was an intern at the Northwestern University Memorial Hospitals in Chicago, was a Major in the United States Air Force and was on active duty at the Wilford Hall USAF Medical Center, San Antonio, received the Air Force Commendation Medal,  has been on the faculties of the University of Illinois, the University of Texas, the University of California, Tulane University, and Texas Tech  and taught MBA students, “We Need to Help Libya Now”, 2011, http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2011-10-21/we-need-help-libya-now#.TqY_pLJcCnc)

      The death of Moammar …peace in the Middle East.

       

      Obama must take the lead in Libya – status quo exacerbates perceptions of his weakness

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, )

      As revolutionary movements… this historical moment.

       

      That causes nuclear war --- now key

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

      The disease of a weak …not an option.

       

      Solves Indo-Pak conflict, Russia lash-out, China war, and Latin American instability

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we currently … bite or when.

       

      Indo-Pak war causes extinction

      Greg Chaffin 11, Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, “Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia,” online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia

      The greatest threat…could quickly escalate.

       

      Russia expansionism causes nuclear war

      Blank 9 (Dr. Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf)

      Proliferators or nuclear … their own people.172

       

      China war causes extinction

      Strait Times 2K (The Straits Times (Singapore), “No one gains in war over Taiwan”, June 25, 2000, L/N)

      The doomsday scenario …above everything else.

       

      [  ] US leadership’s key to effective regional democracy --- solves war

      John Guardiano 11, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring

      There is, after … and elsewhere. Now.

       

      [  ] Restrains aggression and adventurism

      Ray Takeyh 11 is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “What Democracy Could Bring”, 2-4, http://www.usmep.us/usmep/2011/02/14/what-democracy-could-bring/

      What is unfolding in…arresting impetuous impulses.

       

      [  ] Middle East war goes global

      The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html

      Any Third Lebanon …Biblical Armageddon.

       

       

      Latin American war draws in great powers

      Rochlin 94 (James Francis, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College, “Discovering the Americas: the evolution of Canadian foreign policy towards Latin America,” p. 130-131)

      While there were …in the next chapter.

       

      Contention 4: Solvency

       

      The US should play a leading role in Libyan governance aid– allows for effective governance

      Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 2011, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)

      Muammar Gaddafi’s 42… stabilization and reconstruction.

       

      Plan solves – aid makes a decisive impact

      Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, )

      Qaddafi’s fall is…and allied blood.

       




11/12/11

  • Shirley Rd. 1 - 2AC vs. UNT KP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 2AC Terrorism Cards

      al-Qaeda is actively seeking nuclear weapons – they have the means and motive now due to lack of safeguards and Libyan material – they’ll attack by 2013 – that’s Kanani. Prefer our ev, it cites Mowatt-Larssen and he’s the most qualified

      Allison 10 (Graham, Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, and Professor of Government, Harvard University, former Special Adviser to the Secretary of Defense, Ph.D. Political Science, Harvard University, M.A., B.A. Philosophy, Politics, and Economics, Oxford University, B.A. History, Harvard College, Forward to “Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype or Reality?” January, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/al-qaeda-wmd-threat.pdf)

      Skeptics, however, abound… bale of marijuana.

       

      Libyan material solves means – greatest risk for a nuclear attack

      Regan 8/25 (George, Chair at Nuclear Free Local Authorities, The Guardian, 2011, Picking up the pieces in Libya, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/25/picking-up-pieces-in-libya)

      But we also hear … to campaign against.

       

      Prefer experts – attack will happen

      Lieber 9 (Robert J, Professor of Government at Georgetown University, “Persistent primacy and the future of the American era”, International Politics (2009) 46, 119–139. doi:10.1057/ip.2008.44 )

      It is also …CBRN event (Senate, 2005).

       

      Material still loose despite increased foreign aid

      AP 11/3 (Karin Laub and Rami Al-Shaheibi, 2011, “Libya struggles to secure loose weapons”, http://articles.boston.com/2011-11-03/news/30356111_1_chemical-weapons-mustafa-abdul-jalil-libyan-authorities)

      More than two …weapons chaos persists.

       

      2AC AT: Palestine Veto

      No short-term impact on cred --- no Palestine push or US veto

      Reuters 11/10 (Louis Charbonneau, 2011, “Q+A - Palestinian U.N. bid appears headed for failure”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/us-palestinians-israel-un-idUSTRE7A97B020111110)

      WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?...have eight supporters.

       

      Doesn’t impact Arab Spring cred --- separate issues

      Charles Cogan 9-14, Associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School & former chief of the Near East South Asia Division in the Directorate of Operations of the CIA & CIA Chief in Paris, “Be Careful What You Wish For”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-charles-g-cogan/be-careful-what-you-wish-_3_b_960932.html

      If the U.S… things to come.

       

      2AC EU Fund NED CP

      The CP independently kills heg---back-seat weakness emboldens enemies

      Hulett 9/3 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, )

      We also know…democracy and liberty. 

       

      2AC China DA

      Plan counters Chinese influence – prevents failed states

      Brookes 6 (Peter, Director of the Asian Studies Center, and Ji Hye Shin is a Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center, at The Heritage Foundation, “China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States”, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states)

      In recent years, … the African continent.

       

      Failed states spill over --- cause WMD wars

      Krasner 4 (Stephen D, Graham H. Stuart Professor of IR at Stanford, Fall 2004 International Security 28(4))

      Many countries suffer …list of policy options.

       

      Increased Chinese influence causes terrorism and African instability

      Giry 4 (Stéphanie, “China’s Africa Strategy”, The New Republic, November 15, )

      Beijing’s tactics … that can lead.

       

      2AC Iran Dip Cap DA

      Obama can do everything – no tradeoff

      Burns 11 – Nicholas Burns, The Sultan of Oman Professor of the Practice of International Relations, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Middle East Initiative, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, May 31, 2011, “CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE MEETING ON "MIDDLE EAST UPRISINGS: OPTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES" PANEL II: OPTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES,” Federal News Service, p. lexis

      I'd say to…think remarkably well.

       

      Winners win with international clout

      Mason 10—Jeff, covers the White House for Reuters, covering Barack Obama 26 March, “Obama's health win could boost foreign policy”,

      WASHINGTON, March 26 … you have going."

       

      Russia and China will block any efforts at fifth wave of UN sanctions.

      Bloomberg 11/9 (Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and Jonathan Tirone, "U.S., EU Press Iran Sanctions After UN Shows Atom-Bomb Work," www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/11/bloomberg_articlesLUEGHV6JIJUO.DTL)

      UN Sanctions Since June … Iran's oil inustry.

       

      The plan independently solves Iran – US action is key

      Singh 8/31 (Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, 8/31/11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1706)

      The disadvantages, however,… deeply troubling implications.

       

      IAEA provides no nuclearization

      Vancouver Sun 11/8 (JONATHAN MANTHORPE, VANCOUVER SUN, "Opinion: Iran’s worst-kept nuclear secret unlikely to prompt pre-emptive strike," )

      Despite the electric … does not change the situation.

       

      2AC K

      Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to improve policymaking---the K’s abstractions cedes the political

      Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

      Academics can make … it might wish.

       

      This is specifically true for Libya – it concretely influences changes on the ground

      BYU Political Review 11 – Libya, Qaddafi, and the Postmodern Revolution, Bryce Johnson, August 4, 2011, http://www.byupoliticalreview.com/?p=100573

      Few pundits have … a revolution underway.

       

      Perm do the plan and all noncompetitive parts of the alt

       

      Democratic engagement is key to recalibrate imperialist representations

      Sadiki 11 is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004). "The mathematics of the Arab Spring" Jun 6 2011 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html

      Egypt and Tunisia … of self-empowerment.

       

      Case outweighs – prefer the specificity of our internal links – heg solves war empirically and social science proves stability and terror

       

      The K essentializes the east/west binary and reinscribes orientalism by stripping the region of agency---justifies violence

      Ray Kiely 95 Lecturer in Development Studies, University of East London. “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism” Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 25 No. 2 (1995)

      Nevertheless, the point … 1991; Brenner 1991: 134).

       

      The alt’s all-or-nothing approach to American engagement cedes politics and causes a right wing backlash that turns the alt---the perm resolves this

      Kamiya 6 Gary Kamiya, M.A. from U.C. Berkeley, founder of Salon, political analyst and writer @ Salon, "How Edward Said took intellectuals for a ride" Dec 6 2006 www.salon.com/books/feature/2006/12/06/orientalism

      There is no … Orientalism, not less.

       

      Prior questions fail and paralyze politics

      Owen 2 (David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7)

      Commenting on … vicious circle arises.

       

      Prediction is possible and accurate even if not perfect---game theory and political modeling can account for complex social systems by aggregating expertism---forecasting can provide an accurate basis for scenario planning especially for MENA revolutions

      de Mesquita  11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/

      Given what we… toward better prediction.




11/12/11

  • Shirley - Rd 4 - France Adv

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Sarkozy has taken a leading role in Libyan aid now

      Arnold 9/9 (David, VOA News, 2011, “France, Not US, Takes Lead in Libya Democracy Building”, )

      As the conflict in Libya narrowed to …has begun in earnest already.

       

      French democratic influence in Libya uniquely important to Sarkozy

      Mikail 10/11 (Senior researcher at FRIDE. Prior to joining the organisation, he was senior researcher on Middle East and North Africa and on Water Issues at the Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques (IRIS),  http://www.eurasiareview.com/11102011-france-and-the-arab-spring-an-opportunistic-quest-for-influence-analysis/)

      All this demonstrates that France will only be able to achieve …as one of the key architects of EU foreign policy.

       

      Sarkozy has banked his re-election on Libya---a foreign policy victory is crucial to rebuild his popularity

      Schofield 11 (3/25, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12863616)

      If the art of politics is about seizing …will be hailed as the liberator.

       

      Plan trades off with Sarkozy’s influence – means he can’t claim credit

      Wittes & Youngs 9 – Tamara Coffman Wittes, Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and directs the Center’s Project on Middle East Democracy and Development; Richard Youngs, Coordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, associate professor at the University of Warwick, January 2009, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” online:

      The balance between bilateral and …focus through new Neighborhood Action Plans.

       

      Sarkozy loss key to Turkish EU entry

      Simsek 10 (Columnist-Southeast European Times, 4/20, http://setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/mobile/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2010/04/20/feature-02)

      Sarkozy stands between Turkey, EU

      The French president has become the personification of European opposition …, stressing its geo-strategic importance as a bridge to the Muslim world.

       

      That stabilizes the entire region and solves terrorism

      Gordon and Taspinar 6 (Omer Taspinar, Nonresident Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe and Philip H. Gordon, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy, )

      The stakes involved in “losing Turkey” … European vocation alive, at least in the long term.

       

      Middle East war goes global

      The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html

      Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East …anything but the Biblical Armageddon.

       

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

      To an increasing extent, people are congregating in …be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

       

      Accession’s critical to Russian democracy

      Katik 2 (Mevlut, London-Based Journalist and Analyst, Former BBC Correspondent and Reporter – The Economist, “A Changing Turkey Awaits European Recognition”, EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav121802.shtml)

      It is unclear that Turkey can tailor itself to EU requirements in two …Turkey may become harder to ignore.

       

      Global nuclear war

      Goodby 2 (James E., Former Fellow – US Institute of Peace, and Piet Buwalda and Dmitriĭ Trenin, A Strategy for Stable Peace: Toward a Euroatlantic Security Community, p. 27-29)

      A decade after the Cold war was solemnly buried; there is …of authoritarian and paternalistic rule.

       

      Accession solves Balkan backsliding

      Bildt 5 (Carl, Former Swedish Prime Minister, and Former UN Envoy to the Balkans, Centre for European Reform Board Member, 6/1, "Europe must keep its 'soft power'," http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/bildt_ft_1june05.html)

      The debate is mainly about Turkey. …commitment to European values and stability.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

      That goes nuclear

      Glaser 93 (Charles, University of Chicago assistant policy studies professor, International Security, “Why NATO is Still the Best,” Summer)

      However, although the lack of an imminent Soviet threat … not be unconcerned about Europe’s future.




11/12/11

  • Shirley - 2AC vs. Michigan AL

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 2AC Stability

      No link U – transparency now

      Faucon et al 10-28, Benoit Faucon & Iman Dawoud and Sarah Kent, Fox Business, http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/10/28/libyas-national-oil-co-takes-rare-step-disclosing-oil-deals/

      -()- Libya's National… their own payments."

       

      No net impact on production

      Hamdan 9-21-11, Sara, “OPEC Says Producers Will Cut Back Once Libya Output Recovers”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/22/world/middleeast/opec-says-producers-will-cut-back-once-libya-output-recovers.html?_r=1

      DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones) -- Gulf oil …in their benefits."

       

      Plan doesn’t collapse Russian oil – doesn’t get close to the $13 threshold

      IHT 4 (1/7, Lexis)

      Given its dependence on … a barrel this year.

       

      Oil no longer key to Russian econ

      Devyatov 11 – URALSIB Capital's chief economist (15 June 2011, Alexey, Reduced Impact of Oil on Russian Economic Growth, http://www.bne.eu/story2735/Reduced_Impact_of_Oil_on_Russian_Economic_Growth)

      The recent rally … the same concerns.

       

      Stabilized Libya solves the economy

      Schenkel 11 (Andrew, political reporter for MNN, 8/22, “Stability in Libya could be economic stimulus for United States”, )

      Moammar Gadhafi's time …Gadhafi's Gone" party.

      2AC France

      Accession solves Balkan backsliding

      Bildt 5 (Carl, Former Swedish Prime Minister, and Former UN Envoy to the Balkans, Centre for European Reform Board Member, 6/1, "Europe must keep its 'soft power'," http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/bildt_ft_1june05.html)

      The debate is mainly … values and stability.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

      That goes nuclear

      Glaser 93 (Charles, University of Chicago assistant policy studies professor, International Security, “Why NATO is Still the Best,” Summer)

      However, although … about Europe’s future.

      2AC Credibility

      Cred works – empirically restrains conflict and here’s ev

      Tang 5 (Shiping, associate research fellow and deputy director of the Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, January-March, “Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict,” Security Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, p. 34-62)

      The problem, of course, is … specified otherwise).

       

      AT: Palestine

       

      No short-term impact on cred --- no Palestine push or US veto

      Reuters 11/10 (Louis Charbonneau, 2011, “Q+A - Palestinian U.N. bid appears headed for failure”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/us-palestinians-israel-un-idUSTRE7A97B020111110)

      WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?… it if Palestinians only have eight supporters.

       

      Doesn’t impact Arab Spring cred --- separate issues

      Charles Cogan 9-14, Associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School & former chief of the Near East South Asia Division in the Directorate of Operations of the CIA & CIA Chief in Paris, “Be Careful What You Wish For”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-charles-g-cogan/be-careful-what-you-wish-_3_b_960932.html

      If the U.S. veto … things to come.

       

      2AC Turkey CP

      Turkish democracy assistance fails

      Shirinian 8/14--Razming, "Arab spring and the Turkish Model", 2011, Open Democracy,

      It is an irony of …inspiration” for the region. 

       

      Only US signal solves terrorism

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Admittedly, in many quarters, … end of the long war.

       

      2AC K

      Role of the ballot is political engagement in democracy policy


      Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to improve policymaking---the K’s abstractions cedes the political

      Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

      Academics can make at … who produce it might wish.

      The K essentializes the east/west binary and reinscribes orientalism by stripping the region of agency---justifies violence

      Ray Kiely 95 Lecturer in Development Studies, University of East London. “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism” Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 25 No. 2 (1995)

      Nevertheless, the point … 1991; Brenner 1991: 134).

       

      The alt’s all-or-nothing approach to American engagement cedes politics and causes a right wing backlash that turns the alt---the perm resolves this

      Kamiya 6 Gary Kamiya, M.A. from U.C. Berkeley, founder of Salon, political analyst and writer @ Salon, "How Edward Said took intellectuals for a ride" Dec 6 2006 www.salon.com/books/feature/2006/12/06/orientalism

      There is no doubt …, we need more Orientalism, not less.

       

      2AC Saudi DA

      Aid Now takes this out – Clinton gave $40 million last week for security aid to Libya

       

      Saudi Arabia only cares about Bahrain – they gave up on Libya

      Wischenkamper 11 (Kristina, March, "Arab spring: Saudi Arabia calls the tune," www.humaniteinenglish.com/spip.php?article1725)

      Saudi Arabia has … intervention in Libya.

       

      Relations unshakable—defense and military ties, private assurances

      Teitelbaum 7/17—Joshua, Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv U. Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan U.  PhD, Tel Aviv U, 17 July 2011, Joshua, Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives147.html

      The Saudis are … of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

       

      No Saudi prolif

      Lippman 11—Thomas W., senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, August 5th, "Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Policy", Saudi-US Relations Information Service, 2011,

      It is highly unlikely, …weapons of mass destruction.

      2AC Payroll Tax Cut DA

      Won’t pass due to widespread opposition and no vote scheduled

      Sullivan 11/7 (Andy, 2011, “Top Republican opposes extending U.S. payroll tax cut”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/07/us-washington-summit-tax-payroll-idUSTRE7A66W420111107)

      President Barack Obama's job-… payroll tax provisions.

       

      Plan saves capital –

      A. New bipartisanship transcends spending debates

      McCain Graham Rubio & Kirk 10/7 – John, Lindsay, Marco, and Mark, GOP Senators, October 7, 2011, “The Promise of a Pro-American Libya,” The Wall Street Journal

      American support is also … help them succeed.’

       

      B. Plan happens through the NED which ensures support

      McInerney 11 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has more than six years experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. His writing on Middle East affairs and U.S. policy has been published by The Washington Post, the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin, The Daily Star and The New Republic. He also holds an M.S. in Mathematics from Stanford University "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012" Project on Middle East Democracy, July 2011 pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      The National Endowment …Arab countries soon).

       

      C. Libya will pay us back – that’s 1AC Wolfowitz and plan’s reprogrammed funding anyway

      Waterman 10/18 (Shaun, 2011, “Clinton pledges more U.S. help on surprise visit”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/18/clinton-pledges-more-us-help-on-surprise-visit/?page=all#pagebreak)

      Officials said the … the secretary said.

      Winner’s win

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily … at home (Fordham 2002).

       

      Asia trip costs PC

      AP 11-11, “Obama is off for big nine-day Asia-Pacific trip _ with an eye on budget and politics at home”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/obama-administration-pours-time-and-capital-into-asia-pacific-ties-eyeing-jobs-and-security/2011/11/11/gIQAiBYBBN_story.html

      The subtext of the trip agenda is Obama’s intention to keep the United States as a viable counterweight to a rising China, particularly in the eyes of other leaders in the region.

      The element Obama …. domestic concerns for Obama.

       

      Solyndra pounds agenda

      Dana Hull 11-10, Mercury News, “House Republicans and Democrats skirmish over Solyndra”,    

      The highly partisan … additional documents related to Solyndra's $535 million loan guarantee and application for a second Energy Department loan guarantee.

       

      Jackson Vanik tanks agenda

      Doug Palmer 11-10, Reuters, “U.S. wants quick vote on normal trade with Russia”, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/idINIndia-60458720111110?type=economicNews

      U.S. President Barack Obama on Thursday hailed … to human rights and democracy.

       

      PTC doesn’t solve

      Bartlett 8-30, Bruce, held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/

      However, there is no … cited the cost of labor.

       




11/12/11

  • Shirley - Rd 5 - Lead From Behind Bad Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • US needs to take the lead in Libya—anything less is seen weakness and turning away from democracy

      Hamid 10/1 (Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 2011, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1)

      The reasons for … need to do it.”

       

      Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – reverses lead from behind and boosts US influence

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, )

      The future of … friendly to the West.

       

      Weak influence from lead from behind destroys heg – emboldens adversaries

      Hulett 9/3 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, )

      We also know a …democracy and liberty. 

       

      Extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

      Events in Libya … for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

       

      Leading from behind on Libya causes an authoritarian counter-mobilization by Russia, China and Iran---triggers geopolitical jockeying and great-power war---only overt U.S. influence deters

      Jakub Grygiel 10-3, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3, 2011, “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion,” online: http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

      Alas, reality is… of their actions.

       

      Successful authoritarian counterrevolution in MENA emboldens Russian and Chinese expansionist aggression globally

      Arch Puddington 11, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports, September 2011, “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3, online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

      To be effective… of freedom everywhere else.

       

      Russian resurgence causes global nuclear war

      Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear … their own people.172

       

      Chinese resurgence causes nuclear great power war

      Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49

      Obviously, it is … great power alliances.

       

      Transparent governance aid is vital – it reinvigorates our credibility by aligning foreign policy with American ideals

      Allen 11 (Michael, Democracy Digest, January 30, “Reconciling ideals and interests in promoting Arab democracy”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/reconciling-ideals-and-interests-in-promoting-arab-democracy)

      “The best guarantee … now, finally, aligned.”

       

      Independently, Obama must take the lead in Libya

      May 10/21 (Donald R, BS, with High Honors and Distinction in Microbiology, in 1968 from the University of Illinois, Champaign, and his MD from the University of Illinois College of Medicine, Chicago, was an intern at the Northwestern University Memorial Hospitals in Chicago, was a Major in the United States Air Force and was on active duty at the Wilford Hall USAF Medical Center, San Antonio, received the Air Force Commendation Medal,  has been on the faculties of the University of Illinois, the University of Texas, the University of California, Tulane University, and Texas Tech  and taught MBA students, “We Need to Help Libya Now”, 2011, http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2011-10-21/we-need-help-libya-now#.TqY_pLJcCnc)

      The death of …in the Middle East.

       

      That causes nuclear war --- now key

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

      The disease of a … not an option.

       

      Solves Indo-Pak conflict, Russia lash-out and China war

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we currently … will bite or when.

       

      Indo-Pak war causes extinction

      Greg Chaffin 11, Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, “Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia,” online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia

      The greatest threat … could quickly escalate.

       

      China war causes extinction

      Strait Times 2K (The Straits Times (Singapore), “No one gains in war over Taiwan”, June 25, 2000, L/N)

      The doomsday scenario …above everything else.




11/12/11

  • Shirley - 2AC vs. Georgia LL

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 2AC UN CP

      Doesn’t solve cred – Obama signal key

      Lina Khatib 11, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, “The Arab Spring Casts Obama as United States Public Diplomacy Messenger”, August 25, http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/newswire/cpdblog_detail/the_arab_spring_
      casts_obama_as_united_states_public_diplomacy_messenger/

      Why is it… the Arab world.

       

      CP fails – empirics prove it causes disaster

      Carafano and Phillips 11 (James Jay Carafano, Ph.D. , is Deputy Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Davis Institute, and James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center at The Heritage Foundation, March 31, “Aiding Libya More Than Arming Rebels”, http:~/~/www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/aiding-libya-more-than-arming-rebels)

      Regardless of what…have disastrous consequences.

       

      2AC Conditions

      Overt influence destabilizes the new regime --- transparency support alone is comparatively better

      Lacher 8/29 (Wolfgang, Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2011, “The International Role in Post-Qadhafi Libya? Withdraw”, http://mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/international-role-post-qadhafi-libya-withdraw)

      As Libya enters … process to come.

       

      Conditions destroy US cred

      White 11—Journalist @ New York Observer – Jeremy B. White, Journalist @ New York Observer, International Business Times "Arab Spring: In Foreign Aid to Egypt and Tunisia, Questions Loom" June 17 2011, www.ibtimes.com/articles/164845/20110617/arab-spring-egypt-tunisia-foreign-aid-foreign-assistance.htm

      Most of that aid …place after place."

       

      2AC APEC

      The APEC part of the trip does nothing

      Villanueva 11/10—Former Press Secretary. (Hector, Off to Honolulu for A.P.E.C., http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/340851/off-honolulu-apec)

      The APEC meeting…which opportunity APEC provides.

       

      Normal means = Obama doesn’t push the plan --- won’t abandon the trip

      Carrie Budoff Brown 11-11, Politico, “Obama spurns Congress for overseas”, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68168.html

      President Barack Obama … not that complicated.”

       

      Middle East diplomatic focus inevitable

      Gvosdev 10/28 – Nikolas K. Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, 10/28/11, The Realist Prism: U.S. Must Put Words Into Action in Asia-Pacific, http:~/~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10490/the-realist-prism-u-s-must-put-words-into-action-in-asia-pacific

      Although it is … other military accounts are threatened.”

       

      Trip not sufficient---tangible commitment is key

      Lohman 11/10—Director of Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. (Walter, President Obama’s Pacific Swing: Commitment Means More Than Just Showing the Flag, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/11/President-Obamas-Pacific-Swing-Commitment-Means-More-Than-Just-Showing-the-Flag)

      On November 11–19, … visits and in the follow-up.

       

      Winners win with international clout

      Mason 10—Jeff, covers the White House for Reuters, covering Barack Obama 26 March, “Obama's health win could boost foreign policy”, http:~/~/www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26180856.htm

      WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - …deal you have going."

       

      Uniqueness overwhelms--US maintaining its force posture in Asia

      Bumiller 10/23 – Elisabeth Bumiller, NY Times, 10/23/11,

      Defense Secretary Leon …South Korea and Japan.

       

      US leadership in Asia high---countries will inevitably bandwagon with the US

      Richardson 10/31—visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South-East Asian Studies in Singapore (Michael, US shift its focus on China, 10/31/11, maritimesecurity.asia/free-2/maritime-security-asia/us-shifts-its-focus-on-china/)

      As China’s power, … an overweening China.

      Plan happens through the NED which ensures support

      McInerney 11 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has more than six years experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. His writing on Middle East affairs and U.S. policy has been published by The Washington Post, the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin, The Daily Star and The New Republic. He also holds an M.S. in Mathematics from Stanford University "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012" Project on Middle East Democracy, July 2011 pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      The National Endowment … Arab countries soon).

       

      Libya will pay us back – that’s 1AC Wolfowitz and plan’s reprogrammed funding anyway

      Waterman 10/18 (Shaun, 2011, “Clinton pledges more U.S. help on surprise visit”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/18/clinton-pledges-more-us-help-on-surprise-visit/?page=all#pagebreak)

      Officials said the…the secretary said.




11/13/11

  • USC 1AC - Round 1

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1AC – Plan

      The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya

      1AC – Stability

      Contention 1: Stability

       

      US just gave aid to Libya – more to come

      Sorcher 10/18 (Sarah, Covers national security and foreign policy as a staff reporter for National Journal, 10/18/2011, “Clinton Arrives in Libya, Pledges More Aid to Secure Weapons and Help Wounded”, http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/clinton-arrives-in-libya-pledges-more-aid-to-secure-weapons-and-help-wounded-20111018)

      Secretary of State …planning terrorist attacks.

       

      It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not cash

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said … and peaceful democracy.

       

      Civil war likely in Libya now

      Vatutin 12/13 (Alexander, Voice of Russia Correspondent, 2011, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/12/62092662.html)

      Warnings from many … break up into parts.

       

      Plan prevents Libya from civil war and warlordism

      Dobbins and Wehrey 11 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 8/23, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall … long and rocky.

       

      Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )

      Scott told Progressive …in early 1914.

       

      1AC – Terrorism

      Contention 2: Terrorism

       

      al-Qaeda will attack with WMD by 2013

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

      We should be …minds to it.”

                                                                                                                                           

      Plan’s democratic signal key – prevents global terrorism

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Another immediate…to be radicalized.

       

      Extinction

      Hellman 8 [Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf]

      The threat of …—not an option.

       

      Independently, causes a bioterror attack on the US

      Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Al-Qaeda and The Plague,” )

      The report that some … before they mature.

       

      Extinction

      Ochs 2 (Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately” 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)

      Of all the … IS NOW POSSIBLE. 

      1AC – Credibility

      Contention 3: Credibility

       

      US needs to take the lead in Libya—anything less is seen weakness and turning away from democracy

      Hamid 11 (Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 10/1, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1)

      The reasons for…to do it.”

       

      Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – reverses lead from behind and boosts US influence

      Ghitis 11 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 8/25, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, )

      The future of … friendly to the West.

       

      Weak influence from lead from behind destroys heg – emboldens adversaries

      Hulett 11 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 9/3, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, )

      We also know…democracy and liberty. 

       

      Extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

      Events in Libya … Century now unfolding.

       

      Leading from behind causes an authoritarian counter-mobilization by Russia, China and Iran

      Grygiel 11 (Jakub, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3 , “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”, http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319)

      Alas, reality is … of their actions.

       

      That emboldens Russian and Chinese expansionism globally

      Puddington 11 (Arch, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports, September 2011, “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3, http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf)

      To be effective… freedom everywhere else.

       

      Russian resurgence causes global nuclear war

      Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear… or their own people.172

       

      Chinese resurgence causes nuclear great power war

      Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49

      Obviously, it is…great power alliances.

       

      Independently, Obama must take the lead in Libya

      May 11 (Donald R, BS, with High Honors and Distinction in Microbiology, in 1968 from the University of Illinois, Champaign, and his MD from the University of Illinois College of Medicine, Chicago, was an intern at the Northwestern University Memorial Hospitals in Chicago, was a Major in the United States Air Force and was on active duty at the Wilford Hall USAF Medical Center, San Antonio, received the Air Force Commendation Medal,  has been on the faculties of the University of Illinois, the University of Texas, the University of California, Tulane University, and Texas Tech  and taught MBA students, “We Need to Help Libya Now”, 10/21, http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2011-10-21/we-need-help-libya-now#.TqY_pLJcCnc)

      The death of …the Middle East.

       

      That causes nuclear war --- now key

      Coes 11 (Ben, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, 9/30, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/)

      The disease of …not an option.

       

      Solves Indo-Pak conflict, Korean accidents and China war

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we … bite or when.

       

      Indo-Pak war causes extinction

      Greg Chaffin 11, Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, “Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia,” online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia

      The greatest threat … could quickly escalate.

       

      China war causes extinction

      Strait Times 2K (The Straits Times (Singapore), “No one gains in war over Taiwan”, June 25, 2000, L/N)

      The doomsday scenario …above everything else.

       

      Korean war goes nuclear

      STRATFOR 10 5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,”

      So the real … escalates much further.

      1AC – Solvency

      Contention 4: Solvency

       

      Governance assistance strengthens the NTC and cements US leadership

      Engel 11 (Former Research Assistant-The Washington Institute & Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya, 11/2, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417)

      Libya's challenges are…with Islamic values.

       

      Governance support solves – US leadership key and they’ll pay us back

      Wolfowitz 11 (Paul, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has served as deputy U.S. secretary of defense and U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, 11/3, “America's Opportunity in Libya”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011721031265512.html)

      Those who opposed…we do nothing.

       

      Plan solves – aid makes a decisive impact

      Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, )

      Qaddafi’s fall is … and allied blood.




01/03/12

  • USC - China Advantage Octos

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • China looking to expand its influence in Africa

      Junbo 11 (Dr Jiao, an assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China, is currently an academic visitor at London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom, 8/31, “China's second coming in Libya”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MH31Ad01.html)

      With Libyan rebels taking over Tripoli and authoritarian leader Muammar Gaddafi on the run, the rebellion aided by North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led air strikes to overthrow the Gaddafi regime will come to the … expand economic interests.

       

      And they’ll be successful now

      Brautigam 11 (Deborah, 8/28, “China, Libya, and Oil: Update”, http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/2011/08/china-libya-and-oil-update.html)

      China is positioning … company officials said....

       

      That means they develop a military presence

      Corn 11 (Tony, European Studies Professor at the U.S. Foreign Service Institute and worked in public diplomacy in Brussels and Washington, 6/30, The Atlantic Alliance and the Sino-Islamic Nexus: From the Hindu Kush to the Shores of Tripoli, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-atlantic-alliance-and-the-sino-islamic-nexus)

      The ―Chinafrica …self-fulfilling prophecy.

       

      Libya’s the key – the US can evict China from all of North Africa

      Roberts 11 – Paul Craig Roberts, Former Assistant Secretary to the US Treasury, 5/15/11, in PressTV, 5/16/11, 'Libya is US, China's battleground' , hamsayeh.net/society/703-libya-is-us-chinas-battleground.html

      Roberts: I don't think … also have oil investments.

       

      Plan counters Chinese influence – prevents African instability

      Brookes 6 (Peter, Director of the Asian Studies Center, and Ji Hye Shin is a Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center, at The Heritage Foundation, “China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States”, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states)

      Amid growing concerns … the African continent.

       

      Africa instability draws in global powers

      Glick 7 (Caroline, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs of the Center for Security Policy, “Condi's African holiday”, December 11, http://www.rightsidenews.com/20071211309/editorial/us-opinion-and-editorial/our-world-condis-african-holiday.html)

      The Horn of Africa … global powers.

       

      Increased Chinese influence causes terrorism

      Giry 4 (Stéphanie, “China’s Africa Strategy”, The New Republic, November 15, )

      Beijing’s tactics should … where that can lead.

       

      Al Qaeda seeking WMD and will launch a nuclear attack

      GSN 10 – Global Security Newswire, August 6, 2010, “WMD terrorism remains grave threat, U.S. says,” online:  http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100806_6521.php]

      The possibility that … and scientific expertise."

       

      Extinction

      Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

      To an increasing extent, …and physical outcomes.

       

      Chinese influence destroys the environment and causes resource wars

      Kurlantzick 6 (Joshua, visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program, 2006, “Beijing’s Safari: China’s Move into Africa and Its Implications for Aid, Development, and Governance”, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE )

      But in some respects, … businesses and citizens.

       

      African resource wars are the most likely scenario for extinction

      Okunlola 9 (Paul, Writer on human settlements issues for The Guardian in Lagos, Nigeria, 7/27, “The African monsoon, global climate change and our concerns, by scientists,” )

      IF current thinking … 3rd AMMA conference.

       

      Environmental destruction causes extinction

      Charles W. Fowler 8, National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries, Maximizing biodiversity, information and sustainability, Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:841–855 853

      This study responds … cannot be ignored.




01/05/12

  • USC - New Plan Octos

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The United States federal government should provide increased support for democratic governance in Libya




01/05/12

  • USC - 2AC vs. Harvard KT Octos

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 2AC Stability

       

      2AC Harvard’s Airpower DA

      Obama’s unveiling a new military shift toward airpower TODAY

      AFP 1-4 (Obama to unveil strategy for leaner US military, www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jLbdzB6o_UBOzAn4XGNQ6etGUX6g?docId=CNG.d51c8f72e4f271b23c418b2f3b7a68e4.d1

      President Barack Obama … to defense firms.

       

      Airpower solves global nuclear war

      Tellis 98 (Ashley, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century, http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR897/MR897.chap3.pdf)

      This subsection attempts … examined in this report.

       

      Investment DA---2AC

       

      No escalation to Iraq conflict --- major powers will prevent civil war

      Hadar 7/1—former prof of IR at American U and Mount Vernon-College. PhD in IR from American U (1 July 2011, Leon, Saving U.S. Mideast Policy, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556)

      Indeed, contrary to …Sunnis, and Kurds.

       

      Plan solves the impact

      Badran 11 (Tony, Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), March 11, “Dragging in Libya's Neighbors”, )

      The brewing civil war … to what’s at stake.

       

      Oil DA---2AC Top Shelf

      Libya has already reached pre-war levels

      Neuhof 1/3 (Florian, The National, 2012, “Libyan oil production rises to near prewar levels”, http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/libyan-oil-production-rises-to-near-prewar-levels)

      Libya's oil production capacity is soaring towards prewar levels.

      The state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) yesterday said its Arabian Gulf Oil Company unit would resume prewar output of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the month. It currently pumps 305,000 bpd, the company said on its website.

      At a meeting of the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries on December 24, Nuri Berruien, the chairman of the NOC, said overall Libyan production had passed the 1 million bpd landmark.

      Wells in Africa's largest crude producer pumped 1.6 million bpd before the civil war last year. Libya aims to raise production capacity to 2 million bpd within five years, Abdul Rahman Ben Yezza, the oil minister, said at the last Opec meeting on December 14.

      The scale of the recovery in Libya was not anticipated by many observers, who feared the hasty shutting down of wells would preclude a speedy return to production. The waxy nature of Libyan oil was also thought to be damaging to idle production infrastructure.

       

      High oil prices now and into 2012

      Kahn 12/30 (Chris, AP, 2011, “Oil prices rise in 2011 for third year in a row; prices expected to keep climbing in 2012”, http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/63850--oil-prices-rise-in-2011-for-third-year-in-a-row-prices-expected-to-keep-climbing-in-2012)

      NEW YORK, N.Y. - The price of …US$98 a barrel.

       

      Alt cause – Iran Hormuz threat

      Mostafavi 1/2 (Ramin, Reuters, 2012, “Iran test-fires missiles in Gulf exercise”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/02/us-iran-missile-idUSTRE80007E20120102)

      (Reuters) - Iran said … pressure on Tehran.

       

      No net impact on prices

      Hamdan 11 (Sara, “OPEC Says Producers Will Cut Back Once Libya Output Recovers”, 9/22, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/22/world/middleeast/opec-says-producers-will-cut-back-once-libya-output-recovers.html?_r=1)

      DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones) -- Gulf oil …their benefits."

       

      AT: Alt Energy---2AC

      No renewables – the price threshold is too high

      Kho 11 – Jennifer, Renewable Energy World, “What High Gas Prices Mean for Renewable Energy,” 5-31, online: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/05/what-high-gas-prices-mean-for-renewable-energy

      The question remains: Why is this … likely hope to prove him wrong.

       

      No renewable source is close to viability

      Clifford J. Wirth, Professor of Political Science at the University of New Hampshire, October 28, 2007, “PEAK OIL: ALTERNATIVES, RENEWABLES, AND IMPACTS,” online: http://www.greatchange.org/ov-clifford,PeakOilAnalysisOctober6-2007.pdf

      Solar energy (defined here … vast areas of fragile land.

       

      High prices help fossil fuels, not renewables

      Tyler Hamilton 11, business columnist for the Toronto Star, “Higher Oil Prices Not Leading to Higher Clean Energy Investments -- Sadly, It’s the Opposite”, May 29,

      There’s been a lot of … of the world’s surface.”

       

      No impact to warming

      Hsu 10 (Jeremy, Live Science Staff, July 19, pg. )

      His views deviate … result remains uncertain."

       

      EU Add-On

      Libyan instability causes refugee flow that destroys the EU

      Economist 11 (4/11, )

      FOR THE past year excessive …great integration projects.  

       

      Extinction

      Dunnis 11 (James, former Australian consul in East Timor who wrote the definitive book on East Timor’s history and UNTAET Expert on Crimes Against Humanity in East Timor, 8/16/11, “A financial storm gathers: one we can weather,” http://lawcrimepolitics.com/financial-storm-gathers-weather)

      We surely would not … prevented at all cost.

      2AC Cred

      No short-term impact on cred --- no Palestine push or US veto

      Reuters 11/10 (Louis Charbonneau, 2011, “Q+A - Palestinian U.N. bid appears headed for failure”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/us-palestinians-israel-un-idUSTRE7A97B020111110)

      WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

      … only have eight supporters.

       

      Libya is key – post conflict situation makes it unique

      Danin 11 (Robert, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR, 8/22/11, Council on Foreign Relations, “Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya,” )

      But Libya is …in that country.

       

      Even if credibility is impossible to objectively measure, policymakers behave as though it influences state behavior

      Tang 5 (Shiping, associate research fellow and deputy director of the Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, January-March, “Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict,” Security Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, p. 34-62)

      The problem, of … specified otherwise).

      2AC China

      Terror by 2013

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

      We should be … their minds to it.”

       

      AT: Russia Oil---2AC

      Plan doesn’t collapse Russian oil – doesn’t get close to the $13 threshold

      IHT 4 (1/7, Lexis)

      Given its dependence …to $23 a barrel this year.

       

      Oil no longer key to Russian econ

      Devyatov 11 – URALSIB Capital's chief economist (15 June 2011, Alexey, Reduced Impact of Oil on Russian Economic Growth, http://www.bne.eu/story2735/Reduced_Impact_of_Oil_on_Russian_Economic_Growth)

      The recent rally … the same concerns.

       

      No impact – won’t alter their foreign policy

      Blackwill 9 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning (Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf)

      Now on to Russia. … the economic crisis.

      2AC Turkey CP

      Only US signal solves terrorism

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Admittedly, in many … the long war.

       

      Turkey’s assistance fails

      Cook 11 (Steven Cook, May 5, “Arab Spring, Turkish fall”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/05/arab_spring_turkish_fall)

      The Arab uprisings … the Arab upheavals.  

      2AC “Libya” PIC

      Libya is an accepted name

      Millership 11 (Peter Millership, writer for Reuters, “Libyan rebels vow fight, even without no-fly zone”, March 10, 2011, )

      "If they implement a … Council representatives) did.

       

      Isolated instances of renaming fail to create change

      Schram 95 (Sanford F., Associate Professor of Political Science at Macalester College, former Visiting Professor at the La Follette Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin and Visiting Affiliate at the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin, “Discourses of Dependency: The Politics of Euphemism,” Words of Welfare: The Poverty of Social Science and The Social Science of Poverty, Published by The University of Minnesota Press, ISBN 0816625778, p. 21-23)

      The deconstruction of …renaming can accomplish.

      2AC Unemployment DA

      Won’t pass---Republicans want conditions that Democrats won’t agree to

      Litvan 1/4—reporter for Bloomberg News (Laura, 1/4/12, Payroll Tax-Cut Extension Sets Up 2012 Fight Over Longer Plan, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-04/payroll-tax-cut-extension-sets-up-2012-fight-over-longer-plan.html)

      The agreement capped … high school diploma.

       

      PTC pounds the DA

      Lee 12/31 (Carol E, 2011, “White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda”, Factiva)

      HONOLULU—President Barack Obama …of low taxes.

       

      A. GOP loves the plan and it doesn’t spend money

      FoxNews 11 (10/21, “Republicans Push for U.S. Role in Rebuilding Libya”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/21/republicans-push-for-us-role-in-rebuilding-libya/)

      With Muammar Qaddafi … in that direction.”

       

      B. Aid just appropriated for Libya triggers the link and funds the plan with no Congressional involvement

      POMED 12/16 (Todd, 2011, “Deal Reached on FY2012 Omnibus Appropriations Bill”, pomed.org/blog/2011/12/deal-reached-on-fy2012-omnibus-appropriations-bill.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+(Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog)#.TvAO5tVe_ZA)

      The recently-passed … Fund at $114m.

       

      Low PC inevitable and not key

      Schier 12/1 Steven E. Schier is the Dorothy H. and Edward C. Congdon professor of political science at Carleton College, The contemporary presidency: the presidential authority problem and the political power trap. Presidential Studies Quarterly December 1, 2011 lexis

      Implications of the Evidence

      The evidence presented … presidencies demonstrate.

       

      Winners win

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily …at home (Fordham 2002).

       

      Cordray nomination tanks the agenda

      AP 1/4 (BEN FELLER and JIM KUHNHENN, 2012, “AP sources: Obama bucks GOP, OKs consumer watchdog”, http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OBAMA?SITE=FLPEJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

      WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a defiant display … the length of the Senate's session.

       

      Unemployment benefits not key to economy

      Campbell 8—Ph.D, economics, Temple U. Policy Analyst, Macroecomomics, Heritage—AND—James Sherk (Karen Extended Unemployment Insurance -- No Economic Stimulus, 18 November 2008, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2008/11/Extended-Unemployment-Insurance-No-Economic-Stimulus, AMiles)

      UI=unemployed insurance

      The theory is that …promote economic growth.

       

      No econ impact

      Barnett 9—senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC (Thomas, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, 25 August 2009, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

      When the global … liberal trade order.




01/05/12

  • USC - 1AC Quarters

    • Tournament: USC | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Cal GW | Judge:

    • ADV 1: Libya

      Aid now and more to come

      Blanchard 12/8 (Christopher M, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”, )

      Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of

      AND

      Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9 

       

      It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not cash

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the

      AND

      Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.

       

      Civil war likely in Libya now

      Vatutin 12/13 (Alexander, Voice of Russia Correspondent, 2011, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/12/62092662.html)

      Warnings from many experts are coming true:

      AND

      believe that it could break up into parts.

       

      Plan prevents Libya from civil war and warlordism

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar

      AND

      the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.

       

      Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )

      Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that

      AND

      now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      US must lead from behind in Libya --- encouraging cooperative action with allies solves strategic overstretch --- collapses overall hegemony

      Erik Jones 11, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, September 30, 2011, “Power, Leadership and US Foreign Policy,” in US Power and the Transatlantic Relationship, online:

      The redistribution of resources makes for a more

      AND

      has little choice but to go it alone.

       

      Extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

      Events in Libya are a further reminder for

      AND

      globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather

       

      ADV 2: COOPERATION

      US-South Korea relations will inevitably collapse

      Steven Borowiec 11-9 is a freelance journalist based in Seoul., “U.S.-South Korea Ties Could Face Strains”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10608/u-s-south-korea-ties-could-face-strains

      South Korean President Lee Myung-bak arrived

      AND

      countries’ shared military, political and commercial interests.

       

      US cooperation with South Korean civil society solves inevitable tensions [including NK, trade, and USFK]--- common values sustain the alliance

      Andrew Yeo 10, Assistant Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America, “Is Enough at Stake? U.S. Civil Society and the U.S.-ROK Alliance”, Center for U.S.-Korea Policy and the East Asia Institute, December,  http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/YeoUSCivilSociety.pdf

      What impact does U.S. civil

      AND

      S. and South Korean civil societal sectors.

       

      Increasing US support now is key --- current South Korean support of overseas democracy’s too cautious

      Ted Piccone 11, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution., “Do New Democracies Support Democracy?”, Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 4 October 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2011/1026_democracy_piccone/1026_democracy_piccone.pdf

      South Korea. After emerging from three decades

      AND

      to offer cautious support for democratic transitions abroad.

       

      Coordinating technical assistance through the South Korean Knowledge Sharing Program’s key to effective Libyan transition --- provides unique leadership and expertise

      Troy Stangarone 10-19, Senior Director for Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “Korea Can Do More in the Middle East”, http://blog.keia.org/2011/10/korea-can-do-more-in-the-middle-east/

      In the aftermath of the Korean War,

      AND

      to share its experiences with other developing countries.

       

       

      That solves G20 policy coordination and legitimacy, South Korea energy access, and makes inevitable reunification with North Korea effective

      Troy Stangarone 10-21, the Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, October 21, 2011, “South Korea’s Arab Spring Role?,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/21/south-korea’s-arab-spring-role/

      With the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya

      AND

      Middle East for when reunification finally takes place.

       

      SCENARIO 1 --- NORTH KOREA

       

      Reunification’s inevitable --- Kim Jong-un

      Lee 12/25 --David S., graduate student at the London School of Economics and a James A Kelly Fellow at the Pacfic forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Window of Opportunity", Korea Times, 2011,

      First, Kim Jong-il’s death has

      AND

      have the courage to envision a new Korea. 

       

      But --- South Korean NGOs are key to make it effective

      Victor Cha 11 is a senior adviser at CSIS and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. David Kang is a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California (USC) and director of USC's Korean Studies Institute. Funding for this report was provided by the Korea Foundation, CSIS, the University of Southern California, Poongsan Corporation, and the Academy of Korean Studies, “Challenges for Korean Unification Planning”, An Interim Report of the USC-CSIS Joint Study, The Korea Project: Planning for the Long Term, December,

      Are NGOs doing the work of propping up

      AND

      order to stay there for a long time.

       

      Ensuring a stable reunification’s key to preventing war on the peninsula that draws-in the US and China --- risks nuclear escalation

      Bennett and Lind 11 (Bruce W. Bennett, Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation, and Jennifer Lind, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements,” International Security, Volume 36, Number 2, Fall 2011)

      A government collapse in North Korea could unleash

      AND

      risk of escalation to the nuclear level.7

       

      SCENARIO 2 --- G-20

       

      Increased South Korean leadership role through the G20’s key to the entire G20 policy agenda---solves the global economy and green tech

      Maria Monica Wihardja 10-21, Visiting Fellow in the Indonesia Project, the Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Australian National University; Associate Member, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, October 21, 2011, “2011-2012 difficult years for G20,” online: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/10/21/2011-2012-difficult-years-g20.html

      These problems make global policy coordination much harder

      AND

      more proactive role in leadership, perhaps collectively.

                                                                                                                                                                                 

      South Korea is on the fence between bilateral and coordinated approaches to assistance – the plan resolves their internal debate in South Korea in favor multilateralism.

      Chun 10 (Hong-Min Chun, Elijah N. Munyi, Korea Institute for Development Studies, 10, Dilemmas facing an emerging donor: Challenges and changes in South Korea’s ODA, http://www.devstud.org.uk/aqadmin/media/uploads/4ab794a073393_SA1-heejinlee-dsa09.pdf)

      Emerging donors pose new challenges to the international

      AND

      own ‘strategic’ objectives by increasing its visibility.

       

      South Korea’s spearheading the African green growth initiative in the G-20 – commitment to a multilateral assistance approach is key to success.

      BAD 10 (Groupe Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD) / African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Tunisia, November 2010

      Achieving Strong, Sustained and Shared Growth in Africa in the Post-crisis Global Economy

      http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/KOAFEC%20paper%20on%20Achieving%20Growth%20in%20Africa%20final%20version%20November%202010%20_2_.pdf)

       

      Given the gravity of the issue in the

      AND

      green technology in support of sustainable economic growth.

       

      That causes a shift to no-till farming – preserves soil and massively decreases fertilizer use.

      Gwata 11 (Feri Gwata, Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Enviro Africa Unit, 3/2/11, Low carbon farming: benefits and opportunities for smallholder farmers in Africa, Consultancy Africa Intelligence, http://www.consultancyafrica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=699:low-carbon-farming-benefits-and-opportunities-for-smallholder-farmers-in-africa-&catid=92:enviro-africa&Itemid=297)

       

      It is widely acknowledged that agricultural production in

      AND

      results in them having relatively high discount rates.

       

      Peak phosphorous is coming --- only the move to non-fertilizer farming solves inevitable resource conflicts

      Elser 10 (James Elser is Regents' professor of Ecology in the School of Life Sciences at Arizona State University and co-organizer of ASU's Sustainable Phosphorus Initiative. Stuart White is director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia, and co-organizer of the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative. April 20, 2010, Peak Phosphorus, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/20/peak_phosphorus?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)

      From Kansas to China's Sichuan province, farmers

      AND

      with cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans.

       

      Extinction

      Heinberg 4 (Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, 2004, Richard, Book Excerpt: Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World, )

       

      Last One Standing – The path of competition

      AND

      for diminishing resources typically leads to aggressive behaviour.

       

       

      SCENARIO 3 --- ALLIANCE

       

      Expanding democracy cooperation outside Asia’s key to the sustainability of alliance

      Dr. Victor D. Cha 9, Director of Asian Studies and the D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair at Georgetown University as well as a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council. He was the Director of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007 and Deputy Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Six-Party Talks, “Outperforming Expectations : The U.S.-ROK Alliance”,  February 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf

      The U.S.-South Korean alliance

      AND

      challenge of North Korea for Washington and Seoul.

       

      Key to contain a rising China

      Doug Bandow 10 is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington "A Free Trade Agreement withSouth Korea Would Promote BothProsperity and Security" Oct 20 www.cato.org/pubs/tbp/tbp-031.pdf

      The United States remains the globe’s sole superpower

      AND

      —symbolizes the geopolitical challenge now facing Washington.

       

      Causes short-term great power war --- interdependence doesn’t check

      Medcalf & Heinrichs 11 - Rory Medcalf is Director of the International Security Programme at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Raoul Heinrichs is Sir Arthur Tange Scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, and editor of the Lowy Institute Strategic Snapshot series, June 27, 2011, “Asia’s Maritime Confidence Crisis,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/27/asia%E2%80%99s-maritime-confidence-crisis/?print=yes

      To the casual observer, recent security tensions

      AND

      with dangerous implications for regional peace and stability.

       

      Goes nuclear

      Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49

      Obviously, it is of vital importance to

      AND

      is not marked by close great power alliances.

       

      The United States Federal Government should increase support for democratic governance for Libya through a coordinated program with the Republic of Korea’s Knowledge Sharing Program.

      SOLVENCY

      Libyan transition to democracy’s starting but increased assistance is key to effective governance in the short-term

      Flanagan 11/1 (Stephen, Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Diplomacy and National Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C, 2011, “International Assistance to the New Libya”, http://csis.org/publication/international-assistance-new-libya)

      Maintaining civil order and establishing the rule of

      AND

      just governance, and the rule of law.

       

      Providing assistance through foreign NGOs stabilizes Libya but preserves neutrality --- avoids backlash

      William Bauer 11, Studied in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic at the University Exeter, with a specialisation in North-African politics, 8-24, “America Must Be A Back Seat Driver”,

      So, what is next for Libya?

      AND

      the U.S. has to offer.

       

      Plan solves – aid makes a decisive impacts

      Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, )

      Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by

      AND

      eventually be paid in US and allied blood.




01/05/12

  • USC - 2AC vs. Cal GW Quarters

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 2AC Libya

      Experts agree – this civil war will be worse

      Newman 11/10 (Alex, The New American, 2011, “Libya: Now What?”, http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/africa-mainmenu-27/9658-libya-now-what)

      Libya’s Future: More …the new regime.

      2AC Cooperation

      Gwata says it prevents soil erosion globally - extinction

      Hourne 1 (James E. Horne and Maura McDermott, PhD and President Kerr Center for Sustainable Agriculture, and Communications Director at the Kerr Center, the next green revolution, 2001, http://www.kerrcenter.com/HTML/green_excerpt1.html)

      Topsoil is crucial … of the above.

       

      Warming add-on

      US-ROK cooperation is key to global clean tech development.

      Snyder 9 director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy and senior associate of Washington programs in the International Relations Program of the Asia Foundation CSIS, April, “Pursuing a Comprehensive Vision for the U.S.–South Korea Alliance.” Google Scholar

      An emerging area … in December 2009.

       

      Warming causes extinction --- outweighs everything

      The New York End Times 6 The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp

      We rate Global …. dangers here .

       

      Solves Econ

      South Korean leadership key to the global economy

      Troy Stangarone 11-9, Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, November 9, 2011, The Seoul G-20 One Year On,” online: http://blog.keia.org/2011/11/the-seoul-g-20-one-year-on/

      In light of … true G-20 legacy.

       

      2AC T

      2) Counter- interpretation –

      Its means “Belonging to or associated with a thing previously mentioned or easily identified: "turn the camera on its side".” that’s Google 11 (https://encrypted.google.com/search?q=define%3A+its&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a)

                                                 

      For is “used as a function word to indicate the object or recipient of a perception, desire, or activity <now for a good rest> <run for your life> <an eye for” that’s Merriam-Webster 11 (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/for)

       

      3) Prefer our interpretation –

      A – Precision – democracy assistance can be funding through 3rd parties

      Richard Lappin 10, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin

       

      Democracy assistance can … and political parties.

       

      AND – This is how aid works – their topic is unpredictable and has no literature

      Goldstone et al, 2008

      Committee on the Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs: Jack A. Goldstone, Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Jr. Professor at the George Mason School of Public Policy and a senior research scholar at the Mercatus Institute, senior member of the Political Instability Task Force and is director of the Center for Global Policy at George Mason; Larry Garber, New Israel Fund; John Gerring, Boston Universit; Clark C. Gibson, University of California; Mitchell A. Seligson, Vanderbilt University; Jeremy Weinstein, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 2008, “Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research,” http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12164

       

      USAID’s DG efforts … for their activities.

       

      C – They overlimit – direct assistance is a tiny part of DA

      Newberg and Carothers 96 (Paula R. and Thomas, senior associates at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, World Policy Journal, Vol. 13, No. 1, “Aiding--and Defining: Democracy”, http://www.jstor.org/stable/40209465)

      The first problem concerns…U.S. assistance effort.

      2AC Private CP

      Privatized aid fails and undermines US credibility

      Dobransky 11 (Adjunct Professor-Poli Sci-Cleveland State University, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html)

      The argument against … contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

       

      Companies don’t want to get involved in Libya – too risky

      Carbonara 12/13 (Peter Carbonara is a senior writer in finance for BusinessWeek and a writer for CNN Money, “Investing after the Arab Spring: Unfinished business”, December 13, 2011, http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/12/13/investing-middle-east-north-africa/)

      FORTUNE -- A few investors … dropped by 68%.

      2AC Qatar DA

      Qatar will use its influence to bolster the Islamists

      WSJ 11 (10/17, Tiny Kingdom's Huge Role in Libya Draws Concern, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576627000922764650.html)

      The foreign military … the Islamists' favor.

       

      Libya key to prevent radical Islam regionally

      WSJ 11 (10/17, Tiny Kingdom's Huge Role in Libya Draws Concern, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576627000922764650.html)

      Libya presents the … take it step by step."

       

      Extremists will cause all-out war in the Middle East

      Jones 11 (Ryan, Israel Today Magazine, 10/24, “Islamic Winter: Tunisian and Libyan 'liberation' leads to Sharia”, http://www.israeltoday.co.il/tabid/178/nid/22989/language/en-US/Default.aspx)

      The "Arab Spring" … Islamic golden age.

       

      Extinction

      Stirling 11 (The Earl of, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html)

      Any Third Lebanon War/… the Biblical Armageddon.

       

      Independently, Qatari influence ensures they seize control of Libyan natural gas

      Roberts 11 (David, Deputy Director of the Royal United Services Institute in Qatar, 9/28, “Behind Qatar’s Intervention in Libya”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68302/david-roberts/behind-qatars-intervention-in-libya?page=show)

      Similarly, Qatar recognizes …, Paris, and Washington.

       

      That causes an OPEC-like gas cartel

      O’Sullivan 11 (Meghan, 10/3, “Tiny Qatar’s Big Plans May Change Mideast: Meghan L. O’Sullivan”, http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/tiny-qatar-s-big-plans-may-change-u-s-mideast-policy-meghan-o-sullivan)

      Qatar seems committed … high strategic importance.

       

      Gas cartel causes Chinese resource competition, Russian geopolitical manipulation, and LNG accidents

      Jim DiPeso 11, is the policy director for Republicans for Environmental Protection, July 26, 2011, “Could a Natural Gas Cartel Emerge?,” online: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/republican/natural-gas-cartel-0722

      Still, a global … regasification plants, tankers.

      LNG accidents cause extinction

      Lovins 1 (Lovins and Lovins, “Brittle Power,” 2001 http://www.rmi.org/images/other/EnergySecurity/S82-03_BrPwrParts123.pdf)

      LNG is less …five Hiroshima bombs.

      2AC PTC DA

      Won’t pass

      Bensen 12/31--Steve, "Enjoy the payroll tax break while it lasts", 2011, The Washington Monthly, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_12/enjoy_the_payroll_tax_break_wh034436.php

      Last week, after a .. reach an agreement.

       

      Plan saves capital –

      A. GOP loves the plan and it doesn’t spend money

      FoxNews 11 (10/21, “Republicans Push for U.S. Role in Rebuilding Libya”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/21/republicans-push-for-us-role-in-rebuilding-libya/)

      With Muammar Qaddafi … in that direction.”

       

      B. Korea lobby’s powerful --- ensures support for the plan

      Freeman 11 (BEN FREEMAN, et all, ‘11(LYDIA DENNETT, and DAHNA BLACK, 10/6, Ben Freeman is the POGO National Security Fellow. Lydia Dennett is a POGO Intern. Dahna Black is a POGO Policy Fellow,

      http://pogoblog.typepad.com/pogo/2011/10/super-committee-under-the-foreign-influence.html)

      Super Committee: Under … the Pakistani government.”

       

      Bader 10 (Max, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer – Geschwister School Institute for Political Science, Against All Odds. Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine, p. 25)

       

      Being not as visible … in party internationals.

       

      Aid just appropriated for Libya triggers the link and funds the plan with no Congressional involvement

      POMED 12/16 (Todd, 2011, “Deal Reached on FY2012 Omnibus Appropriations Bill”, pomed.org/blog/2011/12/deal-reached-on-fy2012-omnibus-appropriations-bill.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+(Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog)#.TvAO5tVe_ZA)

      The recently-passed … Fund at $114m.

       

      Low PC inevitable and not key

      Schier 12/1 Steven E. Schier is the Dorothy H. and Edward C. Congdon professor of political science at Carleton College, The contemporary presidency: the presidential authority problem and the political power trap. Presidential Studies Quarterly December 1, 2011 lexis

      Implications of the Evidence….Bush presidencies demonstrate.

       

      Winners win

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily….capital at home (Fordham 2002).

       

      Obama’s engaging the MB --- triggers GOP backlash

      NYT 1/3 (DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and STEVEN LEE MYERS, New York Times, 2012, “Overtures to Egypt’s Islamists Reverse Longtime U.S. Policy”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/middleeast/us-reverses-policy-in-reaching-out-to-muslim-brotherhood.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all)

      CAIRO — With the Muslim …. Islamist opposition long ago.

       

      Cordray nomination tanks the agenda

      AP 1/4 (BEN FELLER and JIM KUHNHENN, 2012, “AP sources: Obama bucks GOP, OKs consumer watchdog”, http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OBAMA?SITE=FLPEJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

      WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a defiant …. the length of the Senate's session.

       

      Drains PC

      TPM 1-3 – Talking Points Memo, January 3, 2012, “Obama Misses Key Window For Empowering Top Consumer Watchdog,” online: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/obama-bypasses-key-window-to-recess-appoint-director-of-consumer-watchdog.php

      The official declined to … end of this Congress.

       

      Keystone pounds the agenda

      Daly 1/2 (Matthew, 2012, “Obama, Congress begin 2012 in oil pipeline dispute”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j2vVocFY-ndIevcd6F81jGCZw2eQ?docId=231c59bb24ca4f43a0398129a6681ee2)

      WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama … environmentalists over jobs.

       

      PTC doesn’t solve

      Bartlett 11 (Bruce, held senior policy roles in the Reagan and HW Bush administrations, 8/30, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/)

      However, there is … the cost of labor.

       

      No econ impact

      Barnett 9—senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC (Thomas, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, 25 August 2009, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

      When the global … liberal trade order.

       




01/06/12

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