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1nc
Democracy assistance is a strategy to turn the non-west into a hub for American imperialism-orientalist narratives frame US engagement and result in using MENA as a strategic chess piece to recruit allies in the construction of the next enemy-inevitable blowback turns the aff
Soumaya Ghannoushi 11 is a researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies. "Obama, hands off our spring" May 26 2011 www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring
The US wants to turn … and aiding occupation.

The aff’s attempt to manipulate the Muslim Brotherhood to ensure Israeli security is rooted in perverted presumptions about Islam’s inherent danger-orientalism drives a strategy of pacifying Islamist groups-this is empirically used to justify militaristic violence and turns case
Abu-Nimer 11 Mohammed Abu-Nimer is a Professor at American University in the International Peace and Conflict Resolution program at the School of International Service and Director of the Peacebuilding and Development Institute, “Non-violent Resistance in the Arab World: The Demythologizing of Essentialist Myths about Arab Societies” Arab World Geographer Vol 14 No 2 pp153-159
Since the late 1950s, the ….
 exporting models of social and political change through their funding of certain approaches or individuals.4

Extinction
Pinar Batur 7, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, “The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7
At the turn of the 20th century, the “….. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

Position yourself as a critical intellectual-reprogramming systems of representation is key to preventing imperialism and serial policy failure that turns the case
Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p12-
Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its …ferent object(s), and how they think security should be sought in this part of the world.

RC of terror
Mouffe 7 Chantal Mouffe, Professor of Political Theory at the Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster, 2007, “Carl Schmitt’s warning on the dangers of a unipolar world,” in The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt, Edited by: Odysseos and Petito, p. 152
I submit that it is high …. discourse is, in fact, contributing.

No motivation for nuclear terror
Francis J. Gavin 10, Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, “Same As It Ever Was,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Winter 2009/10), pp. 7–37

A recent study …, and that popular wisdom on the topic is significantly flawed.”59

Be skeptical of their impacts
Nir Rosen 11, former fellow at the Center on Law and Security at the New York University School of Law, fellow at the New America Foundation, and Distinguished Visitor at The American Academy in Berlin, he is a widely accalimed journalist and writer @ Jadaliyya, he has written extensively on Iraq and Afghanistan, "A Critique of Reporting on the Middle East" May 19 2011 www.jadaliyya.com/pages/contributors/2834
Too often consumers … in New York and Washington.

OV card
Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p
Chapter 6 began by …realistic’ approaches to regional security in theory and practice.

framework
Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p54-
The point is that a broader security … of constituting ‘threats to the future’ (Kubálková 1998: 193–201).

The plan wrecks US credibility because of regime manipulation
Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
Though the spectacular …. elections and other features of democracy in Eastern Europe. Such a change in policy would have been seen as much too little, much too late.

perm
Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p4-
Stephen Walt’s study, The Origins of …. approach to security in theory and practice.

Alt solvency
Noel Kaplowitz 90 is a research associate at the Institute of Governmental Affairs, University of California at Davis in International Relations National Self-Images, Perception of Enemies, and Conflict Strategies: Psychopolitical Dimensions of International Relations Political Psychology Vol. 11, No. 1 (Mar., 1990), pp. 39-82 JSTOR
Conceptions of national interest …. design policies more  likely to make for constructive outcomes.

Risk calc
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB 11 is Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. MARK BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University. "The Black Swan of Cairo: how suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous." Foreign Affairs 90.3 (May-June 2011): p33 Gale
Why is surprise the permanent …. is to always promise a better outcome than the other guy, regardless of the actual, delayed cost.

T

The aff isn’t democracy assistance
Thomas Carothers 9 is vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and and has written extensively on democratic issues Critical mission: essays on democracy promotion p16
Those involved in police aid …. They insist, however, thai the assistance they give is specifically designed not to strengthen existing operational patterns, but rather to train police to commit fewer human rights abuses, both by teaching human rights directly and by training police in investigative techniques that will steer them away from abusive interrogations and other wrongdoing.

Explodes the topic
Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin

Problems Resulting From Definitional Uncertainty
Establishing the definitional …. in the recipient countries. It does not therefore include economic and social aid programmes.’ As it stands though, the lack of consistency in defining democracy assistance means that there is no precise baseline data in which meaningful evaluations of post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn.

Independently, they aren’t aid for Libya-jacks neg ground
Christina M. Finello 3, JD, PhD is the Policy and Criminal Court Coordinator for the Philadelphia Department of Behavioral Health "ISSUES IN THE THIRD CIRCUIT: ONE WORD CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE: AN EXAMINATION OF THE THIRD CIRCUIT'S HANDLING OF HEALTH CARE INSURANCE POLICY EXCLUSION CLAUSES FOR PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS" Villanova Law Review200348 Vill. L. Rev. 1355 lexis
On appeal, the Third Circuit in Lawson affirmed the district court's decision and held that treatment received for an unsuspected or misdiagnosed illness did not constitute a pre-existing condition under the language of the policy.n40 The court stated that "the central issue ... is whether receiving treatment for the symptoms of an unsuspected or misdiagnosed condition prior to the effective date of coverage makes the condition a pre-existing one under the terms of the insurance policy." n41 Whether a policyholder could receive treatment for a condition unknown at the time of the alleged treatment concerned the court. n42 The Third Circuit began its analysis by looking at the language of the exclusion clause in the Lawsons' insurance policy. n43 The district court felt that the language in the clause was ambiguous. n44 The court of appeals agreed, explaining that … had an "implicit intent requirement."n65 On October 7, before the effective date on the policy, no one - Elena, her parents or her physician - knew that Elena was suffering from leukemia; therefore, no one intended or thought that Elena received treatment "for" leukemia on that day. n66

Voting issue- - explodes the topic and undermines in depth research 

T
Lack of specification makes debating the merits of the plan impossible and tanks solvency because of bureaucratic confusion
Spence 4 – Matthew Spence, Co-Founder and Director of the Truman National Security Project, formerly Lecturer in IR at Oxford, Ph.D. in IR from Oxford, October 4, 2004, “Policy Coherence and Incoherence: The Domestic Politics of American Democracy Promotion,” online: http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf
Comparing American and …. to change their behavior, or send weak and disorganized signals that realized little of America’s potential for influence.

Voting issue for limits and ground-hundreds of sub-agencies from the USAID to DOD to NED to NERD all conduct different democracy assistance programs with different funding streams that affect disad links-overstretches our research burden and wrecks 1NC strategy.  

k

The plan’s based on orientalist ideologies that re-enforce imperialism and turns case-all their args are epistemologically suspect
Fred M. Shelley 11 is assistant professor of geography @ University of Oklahoma, "Orientalism, Idealism, and Realism: The United States and the "Arab Spring"" The Arab World Geographer Volume 14, Number 2 / Summer 2011 July 18
Americans following the events in …relationships between these governments and the West. 

Try or die
Pinar Batur 7, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, “The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7
At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible Turk” was the image that summarized the enemy …. take place with compliant efficiency to serve the global racist ideology with dizzying frequency. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

Vote neg to take a step back and investigate the violent underpinnings of the 1ac
Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p12-
Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its position as the dominant representation, alternative ….in this part of the world.

CP
Text: The European Union should make available police training assistance to the United Nations for Libya using funding already allocated for Middle East and North African political reforms.

Solves the case and avoids their deficits
Allen 9/2 (Michael Allen, SpecialAssistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the NationalEndowment for Democracy, Democracy Digest, "A European approach to developing democracy’s ‘hardware and software’," www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/a-european-approach-to-developing-democracys-hardware-and-software/)
In the absence of a “standard …. sustain transitions in the Arab world.

DA

SKFTA will pass, PC key, and it’s key to the alliance
Kim 9/6 Sukhan Kim senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP "Pushing the FTA to the finish line" koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157
Despite these hurdles, the time … Korus FTA. 

The link to the aff is massive
Theo Emery 11 Boston Globe Staff "Congress could resist additional aid to Libya" 8/23 www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html
Foreign policy experts say the immediate ….- for reasons that I cannot fathom  to stand up a new government?” he asked. “Be supportive – yes, but how many new nations are we going to build in any one time?”

That’s key to the economy, the alliance, global trade, hegemony, democracy, and solving warming-turns the whole case
Daniel Twining 9 is Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). He is also a consultant to the U.S. government on international security affairs “The U.S.-ROK Alliance  in the 21st Century,” Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century - The Role of Korean-American Partnership  in Shaping Asia’s Emerging Order” www.kinu.or.kr/upload/neoboard/DATA05/korus09.pdf
Bilateral and …—South Korea, Japan,  China, and Russia—meet.

Trade solves global nuclear war
Michael, Panzner 2008 faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks
Continuing calls for curbs on the …. jets, cruise missiles, and bunker-busting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.  

SKFTA key to checking China expansionism
Edward F. Gerwin 10 , Jr., Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy "Guest Contribution: 5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal" Dec 16  blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/
5. China is Not … market.  So, while Fords and fillets are certainly important, the Korea FTA also includes other “beefy” benefits for American trade.

Nuke war
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it …. system that is not marked by close great power alliances.

1nc Libya
Structural advantages means Libya won’t fail.
Whitaker 8-22, Brian, Guardian Correspondent, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/22/gaddafi-hope-libya?CMP=twt_gu
The next few months in …. destruction of Gaddafi's army does at least open up the possibility of politicians, rather than the military, gaining the upper hand.

No escalation
Cook 7—CFR senior fellow for Mid East Studies. BA in international studies from Vassar College, an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and both an MA and PhD in political science from the University of Pennsylvania(Steven, Ray Takeyh, CFR fellow, and Suzanne Maloney, Brookings fellow, 6 /28, Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast, http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6383265, AG)

Underlying this anxiety was a scenario in which Iraq's sectarian …. an intuitive ability to contain its civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East. 

No great power intervention
Kaye 10—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton—AND—Jeffrey Martini—Middle East research project associate at RAND. Master’s in Arab studies at Georgetown (Dalia Dassa, The Iraq Effect, Report Prepared for the Air Force, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf)

Continue the policy of encouraging … case of Russia than China.

EU disintegration inevitable
Walt 9/18—IR, Harvard (9/18/11, Stephen, The coming erosion of the European Union, walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/18/the_coming_erosion_of_the_european_union)

I gave a talk in Washington the other day … likely. Hence my belief that the heyday of European political integration is behind us.

Global economy resilient
Zakaria 9—PhD in pol sci from Harvard. Editor of Newsweek, BA from Yale, PhD in pol sci, Harvard. He serves on the board of Yale University, The Council on Foreign Relations, The Trilateral Commission, and Shakespeare and Company. Named "one of the 21 most important people of the 21st Century" (Fareed, The Secrets of Stability, 12 December 2009, http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/articles.html)

One year ago, the world … the tech-bubble collapse of 2000. The current global economic system is inherently more resilient than we think. The world today is characterized by three major forces for stability, each reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.

Econ decline doesn’t cause war
Barnett 9—senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC (Thomas, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, 25 August 2009, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial crisis …. it on  please! Add it all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order.

1nc multilat

Squo solves
Rothkopf 7/27-visiting scholar at Carnegie. Columbia grad (27 July 2011, David, Good news: American political leadership at work ... far from the beltway, http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/27/good_news_american_political_leadership_at_work_far_from_the_beltway)

In this moment of national confusion and public despair …. close and I have high regard for many of them."

Multilat fails
Holmes 10-VP, foreign policy and defense studies, Heritage. Frmr Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs. While at the State Department, Holmes was responsible for developing policy and coordinating U.S. engagement at the United Nations and 46 other international organizations. Member of the CFR. Frmr adjunct prof of history, Georgetown. PhD in history, Georgetown (Kim, Smart Multilateralism and the United Nations, 21 Sept. 2010, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/09/smart-multilateralism-when-and-when-not-to-rely-on-the-united-nations)

The need for multilateralism …. in which the U.S. will be isolated and which places America alongside pariah states such as Zimbabwe or Sudan, even if those countries voted with the United States for starkly different reasons.

Disease inevitable—multiple global hotspots and always a risk of mutations—the aff doesn’t solve world wide 

No extinction
Posner 5—Senior Lecturer, U  Chicago Law. Judge on the US Court of Appeals 7th Circuit. AB from Yale and LLB from Harvard. (Richard, Catastrophe, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html)

Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has … would cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. 

Co-evolution prevents spread  
Achenbach 3 (Joel, Washington Post Staff Writer, "Our Friend, the Plague," Nov, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0311/resources_who.html, AD: 6/30/09) jl

Whenever a new disease … in-laws, a little annoying but tolerable. If a friend sees us sniffling, we'll just say, Oh, it's nothing—just a touch of plague.  

No impact to warming - KABOOOOM  
Taylor 7/27—senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News (27 July 2011, James, New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/)

NASA satellite data from the … take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

Prefer our ev
Stossel 7 - John Stossel, Award-winning ABC News correspondent, 2007 The Global Warming Myth?, http://abcnews.go.com/2020/Story?id=3061015&page=1
Dr. John Christy, professor of …. coming out releasing reports that global warming has little to do with man, and most to do with just how the planet works, there wouldn't be as much money to study it."

No warming
Green 9 - John E. Greer Jr., Science contributor to the Delaware Online, Bachelor’s in Chemical Engineering. 9/14/09, Global cooling found in satellite measurements, http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20090914/OPINION10/90913015/1004/OPINION/Global+cooling+found+in+satellite+measurements
NASA satellites provide the …naturally occurred for thousands of years, long before significant use of fossil fuels. There was a Roman Warm period followed by a cooler Dark Ages, then The Medieval Warm Period followed by The Little Ice Age.

Ocean cycles solve
Beisner 10—former associate professor of interdisciplinary studies in economics, government, and public policy, Covenant. PhD, University of St. Andrews (Calvin, Forget Global Warming Mini Ice Age May Be on Its Way, 12 January 2010, http://www.rightsidenews.com/201001128144/energy-and-environment/forget-global-warming-mini-ice-age-may-be-on-its-way.html)
Note – graph omitted 

The UK's MailOnline did just that this …. of the computer climate models on which the IPCC and other alarmists rely.

Solvency
U.S. lack of credibility means the plan does nothing-it’s impossible for the U.S. to play a constructive role
Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
Though the spectacular …. elections and other features of democracy in Eastern Europe. Such a change in policy would have been seen as much too little, much too late.

USAID implementation fails for tons of structural reasons the plan can’t overcome  
Thomas Carothers 9 is vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and and has written extensively on democratic issues "Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance" www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf
At the same time, however, it is …. evident lessons from past  efforts; that produce “good numbers” but have little real impact; and that  end just as important relationships have been solidified and crucial local  knowledge gained.

 
Congress is explicitly avoiding controversial democracy aid to MENA
Daragahi 9/14 By Borzou Daragahi in Tripoli and Anna Fifield in Washington for FT "US vows to take back seat in Libya rebuilding" www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a04f3b72-deec-11e0-9af3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XzTJnZxx
The US is set to take a low-key role in the reconstruction of Libya, saying that the task of rebuilding the country following the demise of Colonel Muammer Gaddafi’s regime must be led by the Libyan people.
In keeping with the back-seat role the US took in the military campaign to overthrow Col Gaddafi, Washington sees mainly an advisory capacity for itself in the new Libya.
“We’re going to be guided by what Libyans themselves think is appropriate,” Jeffrey Feltman, Washington’s top Middle East envoy, said on Wednesday when he visited the Libyan capital to highlight the US’s critical but behind-the-scenes support for the armed revolt that toppled the regime.
Mr Feltman was the highest-ranking western official to publicly visit the Libyan capital since armed militias inspired by uprisings across the Arab world swept through the country and drove Col Gaddafi from power and into hiding.
“I am deeply moved to witness the efforts, courage and admirable resolve of the Libyan people paying off, as together they build a new and democratic Libya,” Mr Feltman told reporters at a press conference, the newly resurrected tricoloured flag of Libya and that of the US standing side by side behind him.
But officials warned that Washington would play a dramatically different role in Libya than it had in other countries in the region.
“We’re not going to be engaged in nation building in the traditional sense of what we did in Afghanistan and Iraq, there are not going to be millions or billions of US taxpayer dollars going out there,” a senior administration official in Washington said.
Instead, Libya’s reconstruction would be guided by a UN framework, with input from a range of countries and multilateral organisations, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
“There is ample opportunity for everyone to help, starting with policing and helping get the oil resources back on tap,” the official said.
The World Bank on Tuesday recognised the National Transitional Council, Libya’s interim leadership, and said it would examine the need for repairs to Libya’s water, energy and transportation sectors, and also help the IMF in overhauling the country’s banking sector.
Libya desperately needs international help to rebuild both its infrastructure and its civil society after 42 years of neglect under Col Gaddafi, and is urging international donors to make good on their pledges.
But the US, having spent $1,280bn on the wars and reconstruction of Afghanistan and Iraq, according to the US Congressional Research Service, has run out of both the money and the will to provide significant financial help to other countries at a time of spiralling deficits and deepening economic malaise at home.

Support is only rhetorical-nothing substantive
McInerney 9/16 stephen mcinerney, head of POMED "More than Rhetorical Support Needed for Democracy " pomed.org/blog/2011/09/more-than-rhetorical-support-needed-for-democracy.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29
Yesterday, on the occasion of International … has failed to even get out of committee in the House.  Rather than advance new initiatives to support the Arab spring, Congress has instead interfered with administration efforts to do so.

The distinction is crucial.
Peter Burnell 2k is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author or editor of thirteen books, and has authored over 35 articles and many book chapters on democratisation, the political economy of foreign aid, and politics in Zambia. He is founding editor of the journal Democratization., Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization 17-8
In principle democracy assistance … take place on financial terms that do not qualify as 'assistance* in the Development Assistance Committee's terms.

Debating democracy assistance requires agent specification-there is no single monolithic USFG approach
Thomas Carothers 9 vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and has written extensively on democratic issues, “Democracy Assistance: Political or Developmental?,” January 2009, Journal of Democracy, Vol20 No1
Identifying the essential elements of … approach" to democracy assistance. As Andre Gerrits argues:

The deal is key to deterring North Korea
Edward F. Gerwin 10 , Jr., Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy "Guest Contribution: 5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal" Dec 16  blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/
5. China is Not a Fan. The … Fords and fillets are certainly important, the Korea FTA also includes other “beefy” benefits for American trade.

Brink of Korean war now-fast timeframe and high probability-causes nuclear escalation and extinction
Chol 11 Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il's Strategy for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's Academy of Social Sciences "Dangerous games" Aug 20 www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MH20Dg01.html
The divided and heavily armed Korean …, San Francisco and major cities should be torched by ICBMs streaking from North Korea with scores of nuclear power stations exploding, each spewing as much radioactive fallout as 150-180 H-bombs. 

Turns the case—

1) US multilateral leadership 

Doug Bandow 10 is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington "A Free Trade Agreement withSouth Korea Would Promote BothProsperity and Security" Oct 20 www.cato.org/pubs/tbp/tbp-031.pdf
Nevertheless, South Koreans still desire to strengthen economic ties with America. Wrote Lee Ho-jin of Myongji University: such an accord would help the South “position itself earlier than other regional competing countries as not only an economic hub … Asia. But the United States need not yield the playing field; instead, it should actively engage friendly nations. The most profitable and least dangerous means to do so is through private commerce.

Key to overall trade and economic leadership
WSJ 12/6 "A Korea-U.S. Trade Deal, At Last" online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704767804576000542290721476.html
The Korea pact is a step … to mention the cost to U.S. growth.

US economic leadership accesses every impact-warming, heg, poverty, econ, trade, and global war and disesase
Posen 9 - deputy director and senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Adam, “Economic leadership beyond the crisis,” http://clients.squareeye.com/uploads/foresight/documents/PN%20USA_FINAL_LR_1.pdf)
Thus, the US faces a challenging but not … like controlling climate change  or managing migration and demographic shifts. If the  US is to rise to the challenge, it should concentrate  on the following priority measures. 

SKFTA key to drug innovation-turns the case because only way to solve disease
Pharma Letter 12/7 "Long awaited South Korea-US Free Trade Agreement deal concluded" www.thepharmaletter.com/file/100442/long-awaited-south-korea-us-free-trade-agreement-deal-concluded.html
Accord welcomed by PhRMA  … highly skilled, well paying jobs here.”

Coceded it turns warming—key to US clean tech dispersal and Doha climate negotiations which are the only way to solve warming 

SKFTA recharges Obama leadership and Doha negotiations—1NC evidence—turns multilat
James Bacchus 10, Chairman, Global Trade and Investment Practice Group, Greenberg Traurig "Reviving U.S. Power Abroad From Within" www.cfr.org/publication/23701/reviving_us_power_abroad_from_within.html
President Barack Obama … success in the new year.

THEY Say no China war –their evidence is old and assumes interdependence is the reason—skfta collapses the reliability of the US as a trading partner
Risk of Taiwan war is high and will go nuclear
Charles L. Glaser 11 is Professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science, and Director of the Elliott School's Institute for Security and Conflict Studies @ George Washington University, “Will China's Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs; Mar/Apr2011, Vol. 90 Issue 2, p80-91, 12p EBSCO
THE PROSPECTS … poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.

Momentum for passage-votes coming now on TAA
Palmer 9/13 Reuters "Momentum builds for U.S. action on trade deals" Sept 13 www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE78C7QW20110913?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews [ ]=edit
Momentum builds … go to the House, where it is expected to be passed in tandem with the trade pacts.

Momentum should be the filter-their evidence is all just a snapshot-60 votes will be there for TAA and the FTA-any opposition just proves why PC is key
Barkley 9/7 Tom, WSJ, "GOP Hopes Tariff Bill Pressures Obama" online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576557302254955170.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
House Republicans sought … there to pass the joint bill and send it back to the House, so "the administration needs to uphold their end of the deal and submit the FTAs as soon as possible."

TPA and TAA passage mean they’ll pass
Goudie 9/16 Doug Goudie is director of international trade policy, National Association of Manufacturers. "Senate Cloture Vote Scheduled on Tariff Bill" sept 16 shopfloor.org/2011/09/senate-cloture-vote-scheduled-on-tariff-bill/22477
Senate Majority Leader Reid filed cloture … long-stalled trade agenda, we’ll have some good news for America’s manufacturers and their workers. Pass the Colombia, Korea and Panama trade agreements, open those markets to American exports, and reap the benefits.

Hold all of their link UQ to a very high threshold-issues don’t cost PC until they’re at the finish line-especially because Reid will NOT take up taxes as legislation—if they can’t cite a bill discount them-this also proves you should be skeptical of their link turns
Drum 10 Kevin Drum is a political blogger for MOTHER JONES magazine. Prior to that he was a contributing writer for the WASHINGTON MONTHLY, “Immigration Coming Off the Back Burner?,” 3/10 http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner
Not to pick on Ezra or anything, but … in 2007, and I'll be very surprised if it's possible to make any serious progress on immigration reform. "Love 'em or hate 'em," says Ezra, illegal immigrants "aren't at the forefront of people's minds." Maybe not. But they will be soon.

Taxes cannot be separated from jobs bill—not even close to top of the agenda
Daily Caller 9/14 "Reid in no rush to pass Obama jobs billRead more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/14/reid-in-no-rush-to-pass-obama-jobs-bill/#ixzz1Y5sMuPWZ" dailycaller.com/2011/09/14/reid-in-no-rush-to-pass-obama-jobs-bill/
Despite President Barack …, Reid told reporters that when it comes to specific pieces of legislation, he has other priorities before he gets to the jobs bill. They include the FEMA bill, several trade bills, and a bill on the Chinese currency.

SKFTA key to boost the alliance, prevent Korean conflict and solidify U.S. leadership
Hubbard 11 Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea 4/7, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”
The United States-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (…economic interests into the future.

Failure to pass the deal shatters the alliance-Korean ratification is irrelevant
Kang 8/30 Kang Seok-ho, Arirang News. "US Think Tank: Failure or Delay in KOR-US FTA Approval Can Hurt Alliance" www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=119809&code=Ne3&category=4
According to a non-… for the Korean legislature to ratify the FTA before the US Congress.

More bilateralism is key-Lamy agrees-otherwise Doha died
Bridges 11 WTO General Council: Lamy Calls for “Major Acceleration” in Doha Talks, Bridges Weekly Trade News Digest • Volume 15 • Number 6 • 24th February 2011
“A major acceleration” in the Doha Round …instructions on how to proceed, or could take more time before acting, Lamy argued “the window of opportunity is still there, but it is narrowing every day.”

PC is key and zero sum
Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Profs Department of Political Science, @ University of California Irvine "How Presidents Push, When Presidents Win" Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3 SAGE
Before developing presidents’ lobbying options…systematically influence them.

note-we read a lot of the aff fw cards we read rd 5 v OU that are on the wiki under aff

First, effective deliberation requires a forum of discussion that facilitates political agonism and the capacity to substantively engage the topic at hand-in short, a forum of switch side debate where the negative can predict and respond to the aff is the most intellectually effective-this is crucial to affecting productive change in all facets of life-the process in this instance is more important than the substance of their advocacy
Amy Gutmann 96 is the president of Penn and former prof @ Princeton, AND Dennis Thompson is Alfred North Whitehead Professor of Political Philosophy at Harvard University, Democracy and Disagreement, pp 1
OF THE CHALLENGES that … for deciding what means are morally required to pursue our common ends.

Effective deliberation is crucial to the activation of personal agency and is only possible in a switch-side debate format where debaters divorce themselves from ideology to engage in political contestation-this activation of agency is vital to preventing mass violence and genocide and overcoming politically debilitating self-obsession
Patricia Roberts-Miller 3 is Associate Professor of Rhetoric at the University of Texas "Fighting Without Hatred:Hannah Ar endt ' s Agonistic Rhetoric" JAC 22.2 2003
Totalitarianism and the Competitive Space of Agonism
Arendt is probably most…/., independent but not expressivist rhetoric.

Democratic agonism can only successfully operate in a limited forum-it’s not a limitation on the content of argument, but on the form in which it is presented-this is not an appeal to exclusion, but to maximizing the deliberative potential of debate
Robert W. Glover 10 Prof of Poli Sci @ UConn "Games without Frontiers?: Democratic Engagement, Agonistic Pluralism, and the Question of Exclusion" Philosophy and Social Criticism Vol. 36
Recent democratic …. with limits and frontiers.

Agreement is a precondition for contestation
Ruth Lessl Shively 2k, associate professor of political science at Texas A&M, 2000 Political Theory and Partisan Politics p. 181-2
The requirements given thus far are p…agreements are simply implicit in the act of argumentation. 

Effective deliberative discourse is the lynchpin to solving all existential social and political problems-a switch-side debate format that sets appropriate limits on argument to foster a targeted discussion is most effective-our K turns the whole case
Christian O. Lundberg 10 Professor of Communications @ University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, “Tradition of Debate in North Carolina” in Navigating Opportunity: Policy Debate in the 21st Century By Allan D. Louden, p311
The second major problem ….with the existential challenges to democracy [in an] increasingly complex world. 

And, student engagement on this topic is especially important to break down the cultural dichotomy between Islam and democracy
Dr. Larbi Sadiki 9 Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, Rethinking Arab Democratization: Elections Without Democracy, p. 279
Arab states and societies…and external dynamics.

American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down the clash of civilization discourse that causes Islamophobia and orientalism-empirics prove that effective democracy promotion disaggregated from hard-line Iraq-style invasion has a positive effect-and, even if it doesn’t succeed it’s productive to advocate
SHIBLEY TELHAMI 5, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley
I think we all agree ….of the clash on the other side.

DA
SKFTA will pass, PC key, and it’s key to the alliance
Kim 9/6 Sukhan Kim senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP "Pushing the FTA to the finish line" koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157
Despite these hurdles, the … than for both countries to finally get on with ratification of Korus FTA. 

Plan unpopular-Spending, Iran fears, and Israel lobby
Jim Lobe 11 is the Washington bureau chief of the Inter Press Service and a contributor to IPS Right Web “Arab Spring Stalls as U.S. Defers to Saudi ‘Counter-revolution’” April 25 rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/arab_spring_stalls_as_us_defers_to_saudi_counter_revolution
Their eagerness to charge .. such a good investment.

That’s key to the economy, the alliance, global trade, hegemony, democracy, and solving warming
Daniel Twining 9 is Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). He is also a consultant to the U.S. government on international security affairs “The U.S.-ROK Alliance  in the 21st Century,” Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century - The Role of Korean-American Partnership  in Shaping Asia’s Emerging Order” www.kinu.or.kr/upload/neoboard/DATA05/korus09.pdf
Bilateral and regional trade liberalization
Expanding U.S.-ROK economic …,  China, and Russia—meet.

Warming causes extinction - outweighs everything
The New York End Times 6 The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp
We rate Global Climate …. need to incorporate the dangers here . 

Trade solves nuclear war
Michael, Panzner 2008 faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks
Continuing calls for curbs … a new world war.  

MB Advantage
Brotherhood will inevitably be pragmatic and won’t provoke war with Israel-they won’t even dominate the government
Guttman 11 Nathan Guttman is the Washington correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. "Muslim Brotherhood: In Egypt, a Pragmatic Player, but Less Likely To Rule" Feb 09 www.forward.com/articles/135318/
Although proponents of …. groups in Egypt.

Even if it opposes the peace treaty it won’t provoke war because they’re not idiots
Guttman 11 Nathan Guttman is the Washington correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. "Muslim Brotherhood: In Egypt, a Pragmatic Player, but Less Likely To Rule" Feb 09 www.forward.com/articles/135318/
Indeed, the group is clear in its …-defeating assumption,” he said. “In fact, the peace with Israel reflects the consensus in Egypt.”

And, even if they’re virally anti-semitic pragmatism will prevail in their foreign policy-their rise to power will temper them and draw them closer to the United States which means they won’t renege on the peace treaty
Fiore 11 Massimiliano Fiore is a Fellow at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, where he teaches on the BA and MA programs “How Israel Can Turn the Unrest in the Middle East into an Opportunity for Peacemaking”  IAI WORKING PAPERS 11 | 05 – March 2011 www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1105.pdf
Although the Brotherhood is …, its approach would not fundamentally differ from that of Turkey's Justice and Development Party. 

The military will keep a hold on power-it’ll control the direction of Egypt’s foreign policy
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
MANY OF the iconic …displeasure.

Perception of US manipulation will causes the SCAF to backlash-that radicalizes their foreign policy and causes them to move away from the US-it also short-circuits solvency
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
Yet the United States' …little to change.

They’ll be moderate and maintain peace with Israel
NPR 11 “Egypt Military Promises To Abide By Peace Deal” Feb 12 www.wbur.org/2011/02/12/egypt-14
Egypt’s ruling military … free nation,” he said.

They can push the brotherhood any way they want
Rosen 11 Armin Rosen The New Republic “Cairo Dispatch: Can Egypt’s Liberals Challenge the Military’s Hegemony?” Aug 15 www.tnr.com/print/article/93642/egypt-liberals-military-cairo [ ] = edit
It’s unsurprising, then, …, and the military knows how to deal with them.”

And, they’ll ensure political pluralism-that cements their power and limits the civilian government’s
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
Yet the break between the … magnate and former leader of the NDP who gained from Mubarak's privatization campaign and has threatened the military's political position.

The public and people love the military-it can hold onto power without resistance
Rosen 11 Armin Rosen The New Republic “Cairo Dispatch: Can Egypt’s Liberals Challenge the Military’s Hegemony?” Aug 15 www.tnr.com/print/article/93642/egypt-liberals-military-cairo [ ] = edit
Meanwhile, Shahira … below him is worse than him.”

And, even if people hate the military they won’t confront them
Rosen 11 Armin Rosen The New Republic “Cairo Dispatch: Can Egypt’s Liberals Challenge the Military’s Hegemony?” Aug 15 www.tnr.com/print/article/93642/egypt-liberals-military-cairo [ ] = edit
Other liberal groups and …passersby cheered them on.

Cred Advantage
Squo solves democratic cred
Young 8/25-opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut. Master’s in IR from Johns Hopkins (25 August 2011, Michael, Arab Spring gives US a new chance in the Middle East, www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/arab-spring-gives-us-a-new-chance-in-the-middle-east?pageCount=0)

Mr Obama has been lucky - … of the past decades, in which American authority rested on leaders who had largely lost their legitimacy by stifling liberty and economic development.

MENA heg fails - too many structural barriers to its success - the transition is stable and regional powers fill in
Hadar 7/1-former prof of IR at American U and Mount Vernon-College. PhD in IR from American U (1 July 2011, Leon, Saving U.S. Mideast Policy, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556)

You don't have to be a strategic analyst … and tribal groups in that country and now have a common interest in stabilizing Afghanistan and containing the rivalries.

Plan doesn’t boost democratic cred or soft power-alt causes overwhelm
Kudryashov 11 - Roman Kudryashov, Researcher: Applied Politics & Economics, the New School, May 17, 2011, “Democracy Promotion in between Domestic and International Needs,” online: http://whataretheseideas.wordpress.com/2011/05/17/democracy-promotion-in-between-domestic-and-international-needs/
Additionally, America must … Arabic civil society responds to what America does, not what it says, so a strategic planning approach concerning how America is perceived would argue for repairing America’s reputation through policy changes, before embarking on noble goals of democracy promotion.

Too many alt causes to cred in the Middle East
Hudson 11-chaired prof of IR. Director of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore (Michael, Middle East Policy: A zero-sum game?, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181681017137387.html)

Public opinion towards Congress … Benjamin Netanyahu, in 2010, Hillary has worked overtime to soothe Bibi."

No Iranian aggression
Kaye 10—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Nora Bensahel—adjunct prof of IR at Georgetown. PhD in pol sci from Stanford—AND—Jerrold D. Green—research professor, USC. PhD in pol sci from U Chicago—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton (Dalia Dassa, Dangerous But Not Omnipotent, Report by RAND for the Airforce and DOD, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.pdf)

To accurately gauge the … military, ties to  Islamist groups, and ability to influence Arab public opinion.

No Iranian hegemony or adventurism
Tisdall 11—assistant editor of the Guardian and a foreign affairs columnist. (Simon ,Iran has been isolated by the Arab spring, 17 May 2011, www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/17/iran-arab-spring)

Nerves are fraying … parliamentary polls. At their latest demonstration in February, broken up like all the others, Tehran protesters hit on a slogan the terrible twins might do well to ponder: "Whether Cairo or Tehran, death to tyrants!"

U.S. lack of credibility means the plan does nothing-it’s impossible for the U.S. to play a constructive role
Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
Though the spectacular events … Europe. Such a change in policy would have been seen as much too little, much too late.

The U.S. has zero leverage to affect positive outcomes and there’s no impact to anything in the region
Bandow 11 - Doug Bandow, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to Ronald Reagan, he is the author of Foreign Follies "Revolution in Middle East: Time for US to Step Back" Feb 25 https://store.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12822
However, the process in Egypt and …important, to do so positively.

Exporting a democratic model is impossible-claims that the plan’s tailored to local conditions fall through in implementation  
Lazarus 10 – Joel Lazarus, Ph.D. candidate in Politics and International Relations at Oxford, December 14, 2010, “Western Democracy Promotion: A Counter-Narrative,” online: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/projects/orthodoxies/papers/101117_lazarus_j.docx
At a rhetorical level, democracy … potential for new forms of interventions to secure significantly more positive outcomes

1nr case

Rhetoric will subside
Wickham 11 Carrie Rosefsky Wickham is associate professor of political science at Emory University “The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak” Feb 3 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67348/carrie-rosefsky-wickham/the-muslim-brotherhood-after-mubarak?page=show
With the end of the ...These members will likely play a key role in drafting Egypt's new constitution.

And, it has a 40 year history of non-violence-it won’t provoke wars
Fiore 11 Massimiliano Fiore is a Fellow at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, where he teaches on the BA and MA programs “How Israel Can Turn the Unrest in the Middle East into an Opportunity for Peacemaking”  IAI WORKING PAPERS 11 | 05 – March 2011 www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1105.pdf
While an outright majority win for ...and economic development, than to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran. 

No impact to prolif - states won’t use them offensively
John Mueller 10, professor of political science at Ohio State University, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science & Technology, Winter2010, Vol. 26, Issue 2
The fearsome destructive..estimates of the Iraq war have put total deaths there at about the Hiroshima-Nagasaki levels, or higher.)

The military will pander to civilian officials to create the façade of democracy-but, they’ll stay in control because Egyptians want stability more than democracy now
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
The generals understand...beholden to its interests, betting that in a desire for stability, many Egyptians will accept this compromise.

It will disproportionately empower farmers who will inevitably support the military
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
The military is also working to secure...further diluting what little civilian oversight there was.

And, they’ll control the governors
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
Since the revolution, the generals...to be directly elected, but it has yet to make a final decision.

Too many structural restraints to leadership
Faulk 11-former emeritus prof of IR at Princeton. (Richard, Global Leadership: American Retreat, BRIC Ambivalence, and Turkey’s Rise, 20 May 2011, www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/20/global-leadership-american-retreat-bric-ambivalence-and-turkeys-rise/)

As the American president... the world needs or wants in the early 21st century.

No impact to heg
Maher 11-adjunct prof of pol sci, Brown. PhD expected in 2011 in pol sci, Brown (Richard, The Paradox of American Unipolarity: Why the United States May Be Better Off in a Post-Unipolar World, Orbis 55;1)

At the same time, preeminence creates .... in global terms, and defending all of them simultaneously is beyond the pale 

No impact—instability will cause reforms, not military conflict
Perez-Linan, prof @ Pitt, 7 [Aníbal Pérez-Liñán is associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, “Presidential Impeachment and
the New Political Instability
in Latin America,” http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521178495&ss=fro]

The 1990s were ... along the way.

CP

The United States federal government should issue a diplomatic statement promising the recognition of the outcome of the Egyptian elections as legitimate regardless of participation by the Freedom and Justice party.  The statement should promise a policy of peaceful relations and non-intervention but should threaten coercive retaliation, including a reduction of aid, if the Egyptian government participates in conflicts beyond Egypt’s borders, including but not limited to it instigating conflicts with Israel.  The United States should not require Egypt to uphold the Camp David Accords but should require and issue a statement of support for a peaceful relationship with Israel.  

The CP is a key middle ground between carrots and sticks-it recognizes their legitimacy but promises retaliation in the case of aggression-that moderates the Brotherhood and solves the whole case-this is their 1AC card
Trager 11 Eric, Washington Institute, September/October, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt” Foreign Affairs, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704
Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the elections this fall is likely to push Egyptian ... of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Democracy assistance can’t be exclusively governance assistance-must provide explicit aid for democracy
Peter Burnell 2k is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author or editor of thirteen books, and has authored over 35 articles and many book chapters on democratisation, the political economy of foreign aid, and politics in Zambia. He is founding editor of the journal Democratization., Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization 17-8
In principle democracy
do not qualify as 'assistance* in the Development Assistance Committee's terms.

Security assistance and anti-terrorism programs aren’t T
Thomas Carothers 9 is vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and and has written extensively on democratic issues Critical mission: essays on democracy promotion p16
Those involved in police aid programs
techniques that will steer them away from abusive interrogations and other wrongdoing.

SKFTA will pass within the next month-top of the agenda
Donga 9/26 "`US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month`" english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=060000&biid=2011092668408
The U.S. is expected to submit a bill to ratify the free trade deal with Korea to Congress early next month that could be passed quickly, said Korean Ambassador
approval of the Korea-U.S. deal before President Lee`s visit to Washington will reaffirm the solid bilateral alliance.

PC key, and it’s key to the alliance
Kim 9/6 Sukhan Kim senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP "Pushing the FTA to the finish line" koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157
Despite these hurdles, the time has come
better way to enhance the bilateral relationship at this time - and for Korea to help itself - than for both countries to finally get on with ratification of Korus FTA. 

Congress will backlash to the plan-none of their distinctions apply
Nathan Guttman 11 Jewish Daily "Congress Wielding Foreign Aid Budget in Effort to Influence Shape of New Middle East" May 27 www.forward.com/articles/137826/
Congress’s power of the purse is emerging
between George W. Bush and Ariel Sharon in 2002.

The deal is key to deterring North Korea
Edward F. Gerwin 10 , Jr., Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy "Guest Contribution: 5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal" Dec 16  blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/
5. China is Not a Fan. The Korea FTA would solidify 

Extinction
Hayes 10 Peter Hayes, *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND, Michael Hamel-Green,  Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf
At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack 1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions.
much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions 

American Arab Spring policies have put Saudi Arabia and relations on edge—additional support for democracy ensures backlash
Hanna 11—fellow and program officer at The Century Foundation, former senior fellow at the International Human Rights Law Institute, term-member of the Council on Foreign Relations (Michael Wahid, Saudi Arabia: Royal Succession, Regional Turmoil, 3/8/11 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8120/saudi-arabia-royal-succession-regional-turmoil)

The kingdom’s current defensive posture with regard to the wave of
are at a peak. The royal family’s reaction to external drivers of instability to date suggests that it will be unwilling to engage in serious political reform and unlikely to accept any near-term reform efforts that would affect its authority to determine royal succession.  

And, the plan collapses the alliance
Avni 11—New York Post op-ed contributor. Has covered Middle East and US fopo for years (Benny, O's Saudi scramble, 15 April 2011, www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/saudi_scramble_yyAcmLIzBUwiXJkAjyzzwL)

The Obama administration is scrambling to repair damaged
shows more readiness to confront Iran, perhaps Obama won't need to bow to the king again just to get on the Saudi's good side.

That causes Saudi nuclearization
Rozen 11 – the chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University (Laura, Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance, 4/18/11, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance)

Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's failure
demands for political rights, they are accused of being Iranian agents."

Extinction
Edelman 11—Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense—AND—Andrew Krepinevich—President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—AND—Evan Montgomery—Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric, The dangers of a nuclear Iran, FA 90;1, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.27-The-Dangers-of-a-Nuclear-Iran.pdf)

There is, however, at least one state that could receive
intelligence compromise could leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

CP 1
The United States Department of Defense should provide support for community-based policing exclusively to Yemeni recipients who agree to cooperate with the United States in relevant anti-terrorism initiatives, including the sharing of counter-terror information 

CP solves the case better and they say yes
Terrill 11 – W. Andrew Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2, 2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2
There are also special problems regarding terrorism. As
and its offshoots as much, if not more, than most Americans. Their efforts will be indispensible.

Plan triggers politics but CP avoids it
Francis 11 David Francis is a reporter based in Berlin and Washington, DC. In addition to repoting for the Fiscal Times, David is a correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle., The Fiscal Times, 3/16 2011, “Foreign Aid Dilemma: Dictators on our Dole,” http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/03/16/Foreign-Aid-Dilemma-Dictators-on-our-Dole.aspx#page1
As violence rages in Libya and antigovernment protests
but we cannot justify lavish gifts to foreign leaders when American taxpayers are increasingly feeling the pain of our economic crisis.”

Presumption flips neg-the CP is less change because there’s a world in which the plan doesn’t happen-proves it’s competitive and legitimate-if they prove it’s not kick the CP for us because a logical decision-maker always considers the SQ a logical option 

The Office of the United States Treasury Secretary should advise the senior management of the World Bank to establish a World Bank Community Driven Development project for support for community-based policing in Yemen, contracting and collaborating with the United States Agency for International Development when appropriate. The United States Agency for International Development should fully cooperate with any requests for consultation or joint project implementation from the World Bank. 

Avoids politics-doesn’t require spending or involve Congress. 

Solves the case-the U.S. is the largest World Bank donor and can determine its policy priorities-Community Driven Development projects should be expanded to focus on democratic governance
Astengo & Oh 11 – Michelle Astengo and Grace Oh, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force, March 10, 2011, “Improving U.S. Democracy Aid: Sustainability through Community Driven Development,” in The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, online: https://digital.lib.washington.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1773/16487/Task%20Force%20C%202011%20Web.pdf?sequence=1
The U.S. Government can
the U.S.'s position in the UNHRC.

The CP’s precise mechanism ensures effective assistance that solves the whole case-implicit internal negotiation with recipients ensures aid is effective
Astengo & Oh 11 – Michelle Astengo and Grace Oh, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force, March 10, 2011, “Improving U.S. Democracy Aid: Sustainability through Community Driven Development,” in The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, online: https://digital.lib.washington.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1773/16487/Task%20Force%20C%202011%20Web.pdf?sequence=1
Community Driven Development embodies the same
which facilitates operations, accountability, and sustainability.

Avoids politics and Saudi because it doesn’t increase US democracy assistance-it uses our leverage to make the world bank give development aid
No Central Asian war
Collins 3—pol sci, Notre Dame. PhD—AND—William Wohlforth—government, Dartmouth (Kathleen, Defying “Great Game” Expectations, http://www.dartmouth.edu/~govt/docs/15-Central%20Asia-press.pdf)

While cautious realism must remain the watchword
stability in Central Asia. 

No escalation  
Collins 3—pol sci, Notre Dame. PhD—AND—William Wohlforth—government, Dartmouth (Kathleen, Defying “Great Game” Expectations, http://www.dartmouth.edu/~govt/docs/15-Central%20Asia-press.pdf)

Although Central Asia’s strategic salience has been on the rise, the major
country’s core security. 

The Taliban is giving up
Rubin 11—Former fellow at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard and the East-West Center. Foreign affairs columnist for The Philadelphia Inquirer, (Trudy, Is it really that bleak in Afghanistan?, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/right-turn/2011/03/is_it_really_that_bleak_in_afg.html) 

A colleague pointed to a very different picture painted
government has the upper hand now" in and around Kandahar, the Taliban member said. A midlevel commander who has been with the movement since its founding in 1994 and knows it well, he was interviewed by telephone on the condition that his name not be used. 

Afghanistan is stabilizing
Marshall 8/4—Army Sgt. 1st Class (Tyrone, Commander Notes Progress in Southern Afghanistan, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=64928)

Coalition forces in southern Afghanistan
stability operations, Afghan local police sites, in Regional Command South, within 17 validated districts,” he said. “That's about 2,200 Afghan local policemen supporting communities and denying Taliban access back into their villages.”

Major powers won’t fight over Afghanistan - cooperation is more likely and investments check
Panda 8/12—Associate Professor at the premier Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. PhD from the School of International Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. (12 August 2011, Jagannath, China or the SCO: Who will supervise Afghanistan?, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38320&cHash=afaeb1ed23f08164135f71c2b41ba0aa)

In Afghanistan, most powers’ strategic interests
the construction of a freight railway, a power plant, housing, a mosque and a hospital. (Defensestudies.org, May 14, 2010; Xinhua, May 22).

Solvency
Aid efforts will fail in Yemen - absence of expertise and their solvency data is hypothetical and utopian
Robert E. Mitchell 11, earned degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program, and Columbia (Sociology), has been an academic in the US and overseas, a Foreign Service Officer with USAID (including a tour in Yemen in the late 1980s), consultant on various international challenges, and published widely on a variety of topics (most recently in MIT's Journal of Interdisciplinary History). “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, 8-1-11, smallwarsjournal.com
The current country strategy lists numerous “illustrative activities” that might help achieve program
in the USAID and DoD programs in Yemen. These are well-intentioned hypothetical aspirations.

No solvency - the plan doesn’t address corruption, economic, or central government reforms - all of which are necessary to solve - 1ac author:
Greenfield 10 (Danya, Program officer with the Middle East and North Africa division at the Center for International Private Enterprise, "Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen," Center for American Progress, January 14,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html)
The way forward: Prioritizing U.S. assistance
Military-to-military assistance may be effective in the short
community, but rather with the Yemenis themselves.

Plan doesn’t do close to enough to solve crisis1ac author
Bodine 10 (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html)
A sustained, comprehensive, and coordinated
employment and government revenues, and help integrate the south and the north as more equal partners.

AQAP Advantage
No retaliation
Ruwe 8 (Daniel, 5/27, http://danielruwe.blogspot.com/2008/05/barack-obama-gaffe-machine.html)

Another revealing Obama quote is his answer
seems to think that war in general is almost always unacceptable. This quote is revealing because he rarely enunciates this idea so openly.   

No motivation for nuclear terror
Francis J. Gavin 10, Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, “Same As It Ever Was,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Winter 2009/10), pp. 7–37

A recent study contends that al-Qaida’s interest
powered by nuclear fission, is overstated, and that popular wisdom on the topic is significantly flawed.”59

Any supposed historical interest in nuclear weapons is bullshit – they will stick to conventional attacks
Mueller 10—Professor of Political Science and International Relations @ Ohio State. Widely-recognized expert on terrorism threats in foreign policy. AB from U Chicago,  MA  in pol sci from UCLA and PhD in pol sci from UCLA (John, “Calming Our Nuclear Jitters”, Issues in Science & Technology, 07485492, Winter 2010, Vol. 26, Issue 2, EBSCO)

The al Qaeda factor The degree to which al Qaeda, the
demonstrates that terrorists prefer weapons that they know and understand, not new, exotic ones.

No impact to econ
Barnett 9—senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC (Thomas, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, 25 August 2009, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago
crisis has proven the great resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order.

Instability inevitable
David Carment, 3/30/11, Professor of Int'l Affairs, Norman Patterson School of Int'l Affairs, Carleton University, “Troubled Yemen, the world's next failed state?”, <http://www.cdfai.org/PDF/Troubled%20Yemen-the%20worlds%20next%20failed%20state.pdf>
Yemen's underlying sources of conflict and instability
band of very capable Shiite rebels in the Sa'ada region on the border with Saudi Arabia.  

Instability causes misinformation – turns case.
Hayward 11 (John Hayward, 06/09/11, Human Event "Bombs away in Yemen")
The no-longer-covert bombing campaign has enjoyed some successes.  On Friday, American pilots bagged Abu Ali al-Harithi, a midlevel al-Qaeda operative.  A strike in early May barely
season in Yemen may be about to end.  

Local population won’t support US efforts – sees AQ as legitimate.
Terrill 11 (W. Andrew Terrill – SSI ME specialist, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East), Ph.D. in International Relations, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security,” Strategic Studies Institute, January 2011)
Yemeni leaders, including the president, publicly
insufficiently concerned about civilian collateral damage in its struggle against al-Qaeda throughout the Islamic World.

Status quo solves Yemen intel coop- staying out of Yemeni politics is key  
LAT 9-15 – Los Angeles Times, “Yemen aids in terror fight,” September 15, 2011, online: http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/15/world/la-fg-yemen-intel-20110915
The embattled regime in Yemen has boosted
is avoiding becoming entangled in Yemen's internal political strife.
America's role clearly is growing, however. In May, the radical Yemeni-based cleric Anwar Awlaki was targeted by a U.S. missile strike in Yemen.

Saudi efforts solves Human Intell in Yemen
Hegghammer 10 (NPR – interview Thomas Hegghammer is a research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment. He is also a researcher at New York University in the United States. November 2, 2010 "Saudi Intelligence Key In Detecting Bomb Plot," www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130993646)
Americans found out about bombs headed for
Hegghammer is a research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment. He is also a researcher at New York University in the United States.
Thanks very much.
Mr. HEGGHAMMER: Thank you.

Youth unemployment makes Yemeni extremism inevitable
Joseph Natividad 11, staff writer at Prospect - graduate from UCSD, where he majored in History and International Studies–Political Science, “BEYOND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL: YEMEN’S LOOMING ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS,” Prospect Journal of International Affairs at UCSD, August, http://prospectjournal.ucsd.edu/index.php/2011/08/beyond-political-upheaval-yemens-looming-economic-and-demographic-problems/
Yemen’s Demographic and Economic Troubles
The most pressing driver of future
persistence of youth unemployment marks a dangerous source for future crises in the country.

Zero chance they solve Yemen security -most qualified Yemen analysts agree
Sharp 11 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Yemen: Background and US Relations," Congressional Research, March 22, fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf)
Whether terrorist groups in Yemen, such as
security problems emanating from Yemen may persist in spite of increased U.S. or international efforts to combat them.

We’re winning the WOT in Yemen – AQ lost second in command
Winkler 9-2-11 [Amanda, Christian Post contributor, “Al-Qaida 'On the Ropes,' Says Counterterrorism Chief,” http://www.christianpost.com/news/al-qaeda-on-the-ropes-says-counterterrorism-chief-54932/]
Al-Qaida is “on a steady slide,” according to
Rahman out there."

Tribal leaders are already ousting Al Qaeda.
Terrill 11 (W. Andrew Terrill – SSI ME specialist, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East), Ph.D. in International Relations, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security,” Strategic Studies Institute, January 2011)
There are also some positive signs within
developments, although the extent to which they are to be honored remains uncertain.

AQAP can’t strike beyond Yemen
Sharp 11 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Yemen: Background and US Relations," Congressional Research, March 22, fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf)
Furthermore, some analysts reject outright
would matter—and significantly—would be innocent casualties resulting from counterterrorism operations, which could well set off a tribal response.37

Yemen is only a tiny part of US CT – threats elsewhere are greater
Scheuer, 8/24 (Michael - Adjunct Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University, 8/24/11, “The Zawahiri Era,” The National Interest, September/October, http://nationalinterest.org/article/zawahiri-era-5732)
For all the Obama-administration rhetoric
the English-speaking world, especially in the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, South Africa and India.

Many alt causes – US counterterrorism in one country solves nothing
Khalilzad, 9/9 (Zalmay, “The Next Ten Years of Al-Qaeda,” 9/9/11, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-next-ten-years-al-qaeda-5864?page=1)
Overall, the future of al-Qaeda depends on
creating opportunities for al Qaeda.

Zero risk of AQAP affecting Saudi oil production-qualified study
Emirates 24-7 11 – Emirates 24-7 Business, UAE Newspaper, April 9, 2011, “Saudi oil disruption is unlikely: Credit Agricole” online: http://www.emirates247.com/business/economy-finance/saudi-oil-disruption-is-unlikely-credit-agricole-2011-04-09-1.378813
The current unrest in Yemen and other parts
offset any additional oil lost.”

No impact to oil shocks and they won’t happen-newest data obliterates their offense
Kahn 11 Jeremy Kahn, writer for Newsweek, IHT, and NYT, previous editor of the New Republic, Masters in IR from LSE and B.S. in History from Penn, "Crude reality" 2/13 www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full
Will a Middle Eastern oil disruption crush the economy?
US economy, meanwhile, has become less dependent on Persian Gulf oil and less sensitive to changes in crude prices overall than it was in 1973.

No AQ capability to carry out oil attacks, despite intentions
Tim Pippard 10, is a Senior Consultant in the Security and Military Intelligence Practice of IHS Jane's, 2010, “‘Oil-Qaeda’: Jihadist Threats to the Energy Sector,” online: http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/103/html
Given this strategic grounding, how does Al-Qaeda's
outside of the Iraq theater, to date Al-Qaeda's campaign against energy targets has been remarkably limited to a handful high-profile incidents in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

2NC

Limited definition of democracy assistance is key
Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin
Problems Resulting From Definitional Uncertainty
Establishing the definitional clarity
the lack of consistency in defining democracy assistance means that there is no precise baseline data in which meaningful evaluations of post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn.

The distinction
Peter Burnell 2k is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author or editor of thirteen books, and has authored over 35 articles and many book chapters on democratisation, the political economy of foreign aid, and politics in Zambia. He is founding editor of the journal Democratization., Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization 17-8
That said, democracy intervention is far from being one of the most potent threats to sovereignty, even at the dawn of the twenty-first century. Moreover, it is worth noting that many kinds of democracy assistance actually
democracy assistance) will be additional.

Only Burnell’s definitions limits the topic
Edward Newman 1 Peace and Governance Programme United Nations University "Democracy Assistance: Motives, Impacts, and Limitations" ECRD Volume 4, Number 2 (September 2001) REVIEWING: Peter BURNELL (ed.), Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization www.incore.ulst.ac.uk/services/ecrd/digests/ECRD8.pdf
Democracy Assistance - global perspectives
The volume by Cox, Ikenberry and Inoguchi is fairly theoretical
Westminster Foundation for Democracy, and the OSCE.

Restricting affs to assistance with the sole purpose of expanding democracy’s a key limit-their interp legitimizes a flood of affs with a tangential relation to democracy at best
Melia 5 – Thomas O. Melia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Director of Research at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown, September 2005, “The Democracy Bureaucracy: The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion,” http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf
It is impossible to arrive at a precise number, due to
administered by USAID).

Military involvement isn’t T-the distinction is paramount
Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin
In defining democracy assistance, it is
Carothers 2007b: 22). Democracy assistance is therefore a very precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.
Agroterror is a joke
Cameron 1—lecturer of terrorism and nonproliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons at the Department of Politics and Contemporary History at the University of Salford. PhD—AND—Jason Pate—senior research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies (Gavin, Covert biological weapons attacks against agricultural targets: Assessing the impact against US agriculture, Terrorism Polit. Viol. 13:61-82, August 2001, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/covert_biological_weapons_attacks_against_agricultural_targets.pdf)

It would be extremely
evidence of terrorist groups with the motivation to carry out a catastrophic attack against U.S. agriculture. It is clear however that more research is required before an accurate assessment can be made of the threat terrorism poses to the U.S. agricultural economy. 

The CP important for policy-making and academic debates
Ranaweera 3 Thilak Ranaweera is a consultant at the World Bank "Foreign Aid, Conditionality and Ghost of the Financing Gap: A Forgotten Aspect ofthe Aid Debate" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3019, April 2003 www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2003/09/06/000094946_03042204042890/additional/111511322_20041117164524.pdf
The World Bank publication
Guillaumont  and Chauvet (2001), Hermes and Lensink (2001), Hoeven (2001), Hansen and Tarp  (2000), Lensink and White (2000).    

Doing the CP is impossible-it applies the condition on a future government that isn’t in power yet-topical action has to be immediate
Summers 94 - Justice, Supreme Court of Oklahoma, 11-8-1994, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant,” online: http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14
The legal question to be resolved
neither call for nor bear the approval of the parties' counsel nor the judge's signature. To reject out of hand the view that in this context "should" is impliedly followed by the customary, "and the same hereby is", makes the court once again revert to medieval notions of ritualistic formalism now so thoroughly condemned in national jurisprudence and long abandoned by the statutory policy of this State.

And, that requires certainty-the CP is indefinite
Judge Henry Nieto, Colorado Court of Appeals, 8-20-2009 People v. Munoz, 240 P.3d 311 (Colo. Ct. App. 2009)
"Should" is "used . . . to express duty, obligation
or obligation. McNutt v. McNutt, 203 Ariz. 28, 49 P.3d 300, 306 (Ariz. Ct. App. 2002) (finding a statute stating that child support expenditures "should" be allocated for the purpose of parents' federal tax exemption to be mandatory).

Democracy assistance can’t be conditioned on external quos-the exclusive aim has to be democratization
Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin
On the positive side, there is the implicit instrument
actors achieve what they have already decided they want for themselves’ (Carothers 2007b: 22). Democracy assistance is therefore a very precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

SQ assistance is conditioned-the plan obviates that-SQ proves they’ll say yes to get the aid
Glaser 11 John Glaser "Yemen’s Saleh Resilient as US Aid Flows Continue" July 27 news.antiwar.com/2011/07/27/saleh-resilient-as-us-aid-flows-continue/
Despite official U.S. calls for Saleh to step down, Yemen is set
killed 10 al-Qaeda militants, although some experts doubt they were actually al-Qaeda.  

Plan freaks out Saudi Arabia-kills relations and causes war with Israel-all their link-uniqueness arguments are uniqueness for us because Saudi Arabia is in line with Obama’s current policy - but, relations are on the brink
MacFarquhar 11—was bureau chief for the NYT in Egypt. Bureau chief for the NYT at the UN. BA in IPE from Stanford (Neil, Saudi Arabia Scrambles to Limit Region’s Upheaval, 27 May 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/world/middleeast/28saudi.html)

The Arab Spring began to
demands for democracy, noticeably did not mention Saudi Arabia. The Saudi ambassador, Adel al-Jubeir, sat prominently in the front row.

The magnitude of the link outweighs-just because the veto pisses the Saudi’s off doesn’t mean that it kills the alliance-only the plan is seen as an existential challenge to the regime that challenges the foundation of the alliance
Aanna Fifield, '11 (6/16, Financial Times US Correspondent, "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship", http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1U6GSp8Bu)
Indeed, the fact that Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president, is
founded on the core understanding that the US will provide security for Saudi Arabia, which in return will do its part to keep oil prices stable. It has come under strain from the outset, notably when the US recognised the state of Israel in 1948.

Strategic cooperation will occur despite the veto, but the plan ends it
Mutter 11—contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and The Arabist (Paul, THE U.S.-SAUDI “SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP” AND THE ARAB SPRING, 28 June 2011, http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/6/28/the-us-saudi-special-relationship-and-the-arab-spring.html)

The “Arab Spring” is clearly an unsettling
UN this fall, though, the counterrevolution in the Gulf will continue. Neither the U.S. nor the Kingdom is truly willing to risk upsetting the Persian Gulf over the Palestinians.

1NR POLITICS

Turns case—

Terrorism
Campbell et al 9 Assistant Secretary of State
AND
Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf 

America will not be able to neutralize terrorists
AND
, trade agreements, and civil society partnerships.

SKFTA key to spread of democracy and preventing failed states-especially Afghanistan
Anthony B. Kim 10 Heritage Fellow "
AND
blog.heritage.org/?p=31189
An April 12 article in the Washington Post
AND
be friends. But will America say yes?”
At the center of this challenging question lies
AND
as “an agreement for the 21st century.”
Unfortunately, the final step for the agreement
AND
not moved the pact forward for Congressional ratification.
It would be easy to dismiss the hesitation
AND
usual suspects are raising all the protectionist arguments.
Yet this FTA is about much more than
AND
-interest politics to limit such an opportunity?”
2010 marks the 60th anniversary of the Korean
AND
future of lasting alliance for the two nations.

SKFTA key to US exports and correcting the trade deficit-key to the economy
Edward F. Gerwin 10 , Jr.,
AND
-korea-free-trade-deal/
Based on the headlines, Americans could be
AND 

would two-thirds of American farm exports.

SKFTA key to boost the alliance, prevent Korean conflict and solidify U.S. leadership
Hubbard 11 Senior Director for Asia, McLarty
AND
Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”
The United States-South Korea Free Trade 

The alliance is irrelevant-it’s about NoKo and Chinese perception
Douglas H. Paal 10 is vice president
AND
, Now More Than Ever" Dec 2 2010
In this case, failure diminishes public support 

but with the larger stakes clearly in mind.

SKFTA key to containing Korea-that’s key to preventing Korean prolif-risk is high and it will escalate
Kurt M. Campbell 11 Assistant Secretary,
AND
Toward North Korea" March 1 Testimony Before SFRC
The primary strategic objective for U.S

are a testament to the ROK’s global leadership.
NoKo risk is high-causes global prolif and miscal-escalates to nuke war
Bruce Klingner 11 Senior Research Fellow for Northeast
AND
Threat-to-Peace-and-Stability
North Korea – a Multi-Faceted Threat to Peace and Stability

AND
pharmaceuticals, and engaging in illicit financial activities.

It’ll pass quickly in both countries-top of the agenda and on the finish line
Kim 9/26 Kim Tae-gyu
AND
2011/09/123_95505.html
The head of the nation’s trade agency predicts
AND
brought to a vote,’’ Schott said. 

The stage is set-the FTAs will pass
TFB 9/27 Texas Farm Bureau “
AND
newsradio/newsMaker.asp?storyID=26346
The stage is set for establishing free trade 

be signed into law by mid-October.”

China bill won’t cost capital-it’s only a procedural vote and Obama isn’t pushing
Needham 9/27 Vicki Needham "Senate
AND
vote-on-china-currency-legislation
The Senate is poised to take a procedural 

which means American jobs are disappearing every day.”

China bill’s being pushed without Obama’s support.
Politico 9/27 (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64571.html)

When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D
AND
ailing industries from what they consider unfair competition.

Their GOP sequencing evidence doesn’t make any sense—just says the House is going to pass TAA and trade deals together—

Will pass-enough dems and GOP support-only a Q of TAA and domestic politics
Griswold 9/27 Daniel Griswold is director
AND
-no-to-taa-stimulus/
With federal debt piling up by the trillions 

have for a program few believe is effective.

Hold all of their link UQ to a very high threshold-issues don’t cost PC until they’re at the finish line-if they can’t cite a bill discount them-this also proves you should be skeptical of their link turns
Drum 10 Kevin Drum is a political blogger
AND
03/immigration-coming-back-burner
Not to pick on Ezra or anything,
AND
Maybe not. But they will be soon.

Obama not spending PC on Palestine-his views are eye-to-eye with Congress and powerful voters-and, international capital only takes out the aff, but not the DA
Guardian 9/16 "Barack Obama caught
AND
sep/16/barack-obama-usforeignpolicy

Yet the president is expending considerable diplomatic capital 

any political capital over Israel," he said.

BUT, it proves the link only goes in 1 direction because spending controversies are paramount.  BUT, this doesn’t prove the thumper b/c it was only a stop-gap measure-no PC was required because they just delayed the debate
Altman 9/27 Alex Altman TIME "
AND
-be-a-bigger-one/
The Senate’s deal to sidestep a government shutdown 

to take up the offset question again soon.

a. Congress has to authorize reallocations and they backlash because of pet-project favoritism
Josh Rogin 11 “Lugar holding up State
AND
department_funds_for_tunisian_democracy
The State Department wants to shift resources toward 

another source of the money could be found.

PC is key and zero sum
Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11
AND
Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3 SAGE
Before developing presidents’ lobbying options for building winning 

and show how presidents may systematically influence them.

Wins dissipate too fast-doesn’t generate sustainable capital-especially on MidEast issues
Farmer 9/25 John Farmer The Star
AND
republican_politics_in_washing.html
In a 2007 Fox News interview, when 

Perhaps something like: "Hey, guys, the water’s up to your knees."

Even if Casey wants action on Yemen, he doesn’t like the plan-he thinks the opposition is too fragmented and we don’t know enough about it
Casey 11 – Bob, Senator, August 3, 2011, “U.S. Sen. Bob Casey: U.S. policies must curb terrorism in Yemen,” online: http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110804/OPINION08/308049991/0/RSS
Counterterrorism in Yemen must be a central tenet
AND
must be part of a comprehensive policy approach.
First, we need a better understanding of
AND
, leader of the powerful Al Ahmar family.

Casey just wants TAA passed before Obama submits SKFTA to Congress
Casey 11 – Bob, Senator, May 23, 2011, “Casey to Obama: Hold Firm on Halting Free Trade Agreements Until Trade Adjustment Assistance is Extended,” online: http://casey.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/?id=581beb9a-4183-4f5e-b69b-3e4c790fa3c6
Forty-one U.S. Senators
AND 

trade-affected workers afford private health insurance.

Casey will drop his opposition to SKFTA now as long as TAA passes first
Morning Call 11 – “Sen. Bob Casey wants help for U.S. workers, companies in trade deals,” June 20, 2011, online: http://articles.mcall.com/2011-06-20/news/mc-pa-bob-casey-trade-agreement-20110620_1_trade-agreements-casey-trade-adjustment-assistance
But with the White House moving forward, 

it sends its formal trade proposal to Congress.

Plan is only part of Casey’s package for stabilizing Yemen- not a big enough concessions.  (bottom paragraph of their internal link card)
Edgerton 11 (Jared, "Unrest in Yemen Could Have "Significant Impact" on US National Security, Casey Says at Hearing and in Op-Ed," Politics PA, August 1, http://www.politicspa.com/unrest-in-yemen-could-have-significant-impact-on-u-s-national-security-casey-says-at-hearing-and-in-op-ed/26578/)
In an accompanying op-ed that ran 

our core national security goals,” he wrote.
No clout- seniority matters—conclustion of their link article.  (their article again)
Zito 10 (Salena, "State's heavyweight political clout growing thin," Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 21, http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_668267.html)
Seniority is much more significant in the U

 as Murtha did.
Casey’s been mollified by TAA-means SKFTA will move forward
Parsons 9-23 – Renee Parsons, September 23, 2011, “Free Trade Agreements to Move Forward,” online: http://trueblueprogressivereport.blogspot.com/2011/09/free-trade-agreements-to-move-forward.html
With Senate Republicans in strong support of free 

but has that ever really been the problem?    

SKFTA will pass within the next month-top of the agenda
Donga 9/26 "`US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month`" english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=060000&biid=2011092668408
The U.S. is expected to submit a bill to ratify the free trade deal with Korea to Congress early next month that could be passed quickly, said Korean Ambassador to Washington Han Duck-soo Friday
that the approval of the Korea-U.S. deal before President Lee`s visit to Washington will reaffirm the solid bilateral alliance.

PC key, and it’s key to the alliance
Kim 9/6 Sukhan Kim senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP "Pushing the FTA to the finish line" koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157
Despite these hurdles
relationship at this time - and for Korea to help itself - than for both countries to finally get on with ratification of Korus FTA. 

Plan unpopular-Spending, Iran fears, and Israel lobby
Jim Lobe 11 is the Washington bureau chief of the Inter Press Service and a contributor to IPS Right Web “Arab Spring Stalls as U.S. Defers to Saudi ‘Counter-revolution’” April 25 rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/arab_spring_stalls_as_us_defers_to_saudi_counter_revolution
Their eagerness to charge Tehran
democratic Egypt may not be such a good investment.

That’s key to the economy, the alliance, global trade, hegemony, democracy, and solving warming
Daniel Twining 9 is Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). He is also a consultant to the U.S. government on international security affairs “The U.S.-ROK Alliance  in the 21st Century,” Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century - The Role of Korean-American Partnership  in Shaping Asia’s Emerging Order” www.kinu.or.kr/upload/neoboard/DATA05/korus09.pdf
Bilateral and regional trade liberalization
Expanding U.S.-ROK economic ties i
Pacific powers—South Korea, Japan,  China, and Russia—meet.

Warming causes extinction - outweighs everything
The New York End Times 6 The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp
We rate Global Climate Change as
only be possible if other threats were present, such as disease and climate change. We monitor war separately. However we also need to incorporate the dangers here . 

Trade and growth solve global nuclear war
Michael, Panzner 2008 faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United States and other nations to spew forth protectionist legislation like the notorious Smoot-Hawley bill. Introduced at the start of the Great Depression, it triggered a series of tit-for-tat economic
Many will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.  

DA 2
US assistance to the brotherhood collapses Israeli relations
Weitzen 11 Shana Weitzen, American Journalism Center, a training program run by Accuracy in Media and Accuracy in Academia July 8 www.aim.org/on-target-blog/obama-administrations-risky-outreach-to-muslim-brotherhood/
There is no doubt that Egyptians and
as its stated goal is not in America’s best interest and is essentially trading an ally for an adversary: Israel for the Muslim Brotherhood.

The plan’s perception of US non-commitment radicalizes Israeli foreign policy and causes greater self-reliance
Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf
More broadly, U.S. indecision
and the United States.

That ensures miscalc and triggers biological and nuclear war
Beres 11 Louis René Beres is a professor of Political Science at Purdue University, an expert on Israeli security matters and the author of 10 major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. "The unforeseen risks of Palestinian statehood" 6/9/11www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-unforeseen-risks-of-palestinian-statehood-1.382766
In turn, such self-reliance would demand
nuclear counterstrikes.

CP
The United States federal government should issue a diplomatic statement promising the recognition of the outcome of the Egyptian elections as legitimate regardless of participation by the Freedom and Justice party.  The statement should promise a policy of peaceful relations and non-intervention but should threaten coercive retaliation, including a reduction of aid, if the Egyptian government participates in conflicts beyond Egypt’s borders, including but not limited to it instigating conflicts with Israel, or participates in religious discrimination.  The United States should require and issue a statement of support for a peaceful relationship with Israel.  

CP solves the case-diplomatic signal is all that’s needed
Trager 11 Eric, Washington Institute, September/October, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt” Foreign Affairs, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704
Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's
liberal vision for which the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Brotherhood is pragmatic and won’t provoke war with Israel
Guttman 11 Nathan Guttman is the Washington correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. "Muslim Brotherhood: In Egypt, a Pragmatic Player, but Less Likely To Rule" Feb 09 www.forward.com/articles/135318/
Although proponents of democracy
including the Muslim Brotherhood in talks between the outgoing leadership and the opposition groups in Egypt.

Perception of US strength means they’ll support Israeli peace
Guttman 11 Nathan Guttman is the Washington correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. "Muslim Brotherhood: In Egypt, a Pragmatic Player, but Less Likely To Rule" Feb 09 www.forward.com/articles/135318/
Indeed, the group is clear in its rejection
reflects the consensus in Egypt.”

And, even if they’re virally anti-semitic pragmatism will prevail in their foreign policy-their rise to power will temper them and draw them closer to the United States which means they won’t renege on the peace treaty
Fiore 11 Massimiliano Fiore is a Fellow at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, where he teaches on the BA and MA programs “How Israel Can Turn the Unrest in the Middle East into an Opportunity for Peacemaking”  IAI WORKING PAPERS 11 | 05 – March 2011 www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1105.pdf
Although the Brotherhood is strongly
democratically elected government, its approach would not fundamentally differ from that of Turkey's Justice and Development Party. 

US support for democratic groups signals weakness
Bar 11 – Shmuel Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, April 2011, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161
The chances of democracy in Tunisia are
that the U.S. sees Iran as the future power in the region.

That radicalizes the brotherhood and causes aggression
Richard Cohen 11 is a weekly columnist for The Post "Obama should just shut up on Egypt" 2/3/11 voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2011/02/obama_should_just_shut_up_on_e.html
When it comes to crises like the
man  and we may not be able or want to  then we at least ought to shut up.

The aff can’t mollify them-only a risk we turn case
Richard Cohen 11 is a weekly columnist for The Post "Obama should just shut up on Egypt" 2/3/11 voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2011/02/obama_should_just_shut_up_on_e.html
The fact is that history cannot be undone
contained. It's best to just get out of the way and, in the process, just shut up.

Engagement is already unlikely; breakthroughs are impossible
Vidino 11 Lorenzo Vidino is a Senior Fellow in International Security Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University and a visiting fellow @ RAND J.D. from U Milan Law School, and M.A. in IR from Tufts, "Five myths about the Muslim Brotherhood" March 6 www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/04/AR2011030406231.html
U.S. and Brotherhood
Brotherhood more pragmatic, but opposition to U.S. policy in the region is the cornerstone of its agenda - and that probably won't change.

The military will keep a hold on power-it’ll control the direction of Egypt’s foreign policy
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
MANY OF the iconic images
retain the final say over the country's foreign policy and avoid civilian oversight. The elected government, in their vision, would carry the burden of day-to-day ruleand bear the brunt of any public displeasure.

They’ll be moderate and maintain peace with Israel
NPR 11 “Egypt Military Promises To Abide By Peace Deal” Feb 12 www.wbur.org/2011/02/12/egypt-14
Egypt’s ruling military reassured its
forward to a peaceful transition, for a free democratic system, to permit an elected civil authority to be in charge of the country, to build a democratic free nation,” he said.

They can push the brotherhood any way they want
Rosen 11 Armin Rosen The New Republic “Cairo Dispatch: Can Egypt’s Liberals Challenge the Military’s Hegemony?” Aug 15 www.tnr.com/print/article/93642/egypt-liberals-military-cairo [ ] = edit
It’s unsurprising, then, that
authority of the president. And the majority of the parliament will be from the Muslim Brotherhood, and the military knows how to deal with them.”

Plan causes SCAF backlash-that radicalizes their foreign policy and turns case-causes rejection of US assistance and expulsion of the military
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
Yet the United States' capacity
that the United States can do little to change.

Relations high now but backlash crushes overall hegemony, causes Israel war, and prevents Iranian containment-it’s a bigger and faster internal link to the case
WOOD 11 DAVID WOOD Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/
Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers
Center for a New American Strategy, an independent Washington think tank. "My guess is that friendly relations between the [U.S. and Egyptian] services will continue.''

Sustainable military control contains their impacts and means we control uniqueness-they’ll preserve a rickety SQ
Zarpli 11—worked at Carnegie and prepared research for Human Rights Agenda Association. (Omer, US-Egypt Relations After the Mubarak Government: What’s Next?, 4 May 2011, http://www.bilgesam.org/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=353:us-egypt-relations-after-the-mubarak-government-whats-next&catid=77:ortadogu-analizler&Itemid=147)
During the protests, the army
peace treaty. This signifies that the US-Egypt relations won’t change radically in the foreseeable future. 

Our UQ means they can’t overcome SCAF control, but if they do they undermine Egypt relations
Zarpli 11—worked at Carnegie and prepared research for Human Rights Agenda Association. (Omer, US-Egypt Relations After the Mubarak Government: What’s Next?, 4 May 2011, http://www.bilgesam.org/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=353:us-egypt-relations-after-the-mubarak-government-whats-next&catid=77:ortadogu-analizler&Itemid=147)
Another view is that Egypt will
Egypt will likely deviate from Mubarak’s foreign policy. Egyptian revolution is a message to the US that its policies in the region (i.e. exerting control through puppet dictators) are no longer sustainable. If the United States wants to be a strong actor in the region and form alliances with the regional players, it needs to be prepared to take into account the demands and sentiments of the people in the region. 

That also turns cred and flips solvency
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
Such tactics, of course, are risky for the United States
between the two countries.

They can’t solve SCAF control-they’ll go down swinging-the population is pro-SCAF and against the revolution-they’ll acquiesce to military dominance because of perceived security and because they oppose foreign involvement
Al Malky 9/23 Rania Al Malky is the Chief Editor of Daily News Egypt. "What have we achieved?" Sept 23 thedailynewsegypt.com/editorial/what-have-we-achieved.html
As news emerges of the sudden retur
n
having received “revolution training” abroad.

No motivation for nuclear terror
Francis J. Gavin 10, Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, “Same As It Ever Was,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Winter 2009/10), pp. 7–37

A recent study
powered by nuclear fission, is overstated, and that popular wisdom on the topic is significantly flawed.”59

Any supposed historical interest in nuclear weapons is bullshit – they will stick to conventional attacks
Mueller 10—Professor of Political Science and International Relations @ Ohio State. Widely-recognized expert on terrorism threats in foreign policy. AB from U Chicago,  MA  in pol sci from UCLA and PhD in pol sci from UCLA (John, “Calming Our Nuclear Jitters”, Issues in Science & Technology, 07485492, Winter 2010, Vol. 26, Issue 2, EBSCO)

The al Qaeda factor The degree to which
history consistently demonstrates that terrorists prefer weapons that they know and understand, not new, exotic ones.

No lashout – CCP knows it would be suicide and PLA wouldn’t support it
Gilley 4 [Bruce, former contributing editor at the Far Eastern Economic Review, M.A. Oxford, 2004, China’s Democratic Future, p. 114]

Yet the risks, even to a dying regime,
thinking about its future, the resort to nuclear confrontation would not make sense.

No Chinese democracy and CCP is resilient
Kurlantzick 11— Fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy. Frmr visiting scholar in the China program at Carnegie.  (Joshua, Beijing has bought itself a respite from middle class revolt, 7 March 2011, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/beijing-has-bought-itself-a-respite-from-middle-class-revolt?pageCount=0)

As governments across North Africa have
future is going to come from domestic events, not from external pressure. But don't expect that change to happen anytime soon.

Social unrest can’t collapse the regime and the impact’s empirically denied by 100 thousand riots a year
Pei 9—Minxin Pei is a senior associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3-12-09, “Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis?” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinese-communist-party-survive-the-crisis

With no end to the global crisis in sight, many are wondering how long China's economic
lack of ideological disputes, the creation of standardized procedures for the promotion and retirement of high officials, and the relatively smooth leadership succession from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao.

The plan is the kiss of death for everyone it tries to support
Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
U.S. policymakers understandably want to see secular, democratic
-profile role during these turbulent days.

The plan gives legitimacy to illiberal groups-perception of foreign interference causes a public backlash to the US
Max Strasser 11 is a freelance journalist and writer in Istanbul who covers Turkey, Egypt and the Middle East. “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?” Middle East Online 7/26 http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47350
Suspicion of foreign interference
uncomfortable about working with a country that was once a pillar of support for the now-deposed dictator. Still, with its civil society crushed for more than 30 years, there may be little other recourse for Egypt.

Lack of credibility eviscerates the aff-it means recipients will be skeptical and will smear liberal groups
Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
Though the spectacular events in Cairo
had belatedly backed free elections and other features of democracy in Eastern Europe. Such a change in policy would have been seen as much too little, much too late

2NC

Brotherhood won’t take over
Vidino 11 Lorenzo Vidino is a Senior Fellow in International Security Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University and a visiting fellow @ RAND J.D. from U Milan Law School, and M.A. in IR from Tufts, "Five myths about the Muslim Brotherhood" March 6 www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/04/AR2011030406231.html
The Brotherhood will dominate the new Egypt.
With most political forces
role of the Brotherhood in Egyptian politics.

Naval power independently solves great power war
Conway et al 7 James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf
No other disruption is
power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Timeframe and probability-US has just enough influence to keep Israeli peace and access to military ties-this is their schenker evidence-any power change will trigger our impacts
Schenker 9/15 David Schenker is Aufizen fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy “Washington’s Limited Influence in Egypt”September 15 www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html?nopager=1
Notwithstanding devoting more
best advised to prioritize judiciously.

a. that’s a bigger i/l than the aff
Adelman 11—Master’s and PhD from Georgetown’s School. Frmr director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, former Ambassador to the UN, and former member of Pentagon's Defense Policy Board (6/18/11, Ken, Not-So-Smart Power, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power)

I didn't hear of similar activities from
altogether squishy.

DA turns case more than the case solves-this card cites their 1AC author-giving credibility to liberal groups won’t solve anything-it’s all about the SCAF
Kurtz 11 Stanley Kurtz is a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center graduated from Haverford College and holds a Ph.D. in social anthropology from Harvard University. "Inside Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood" Sept 6 www.nationalreview.com/corner/276382/inside-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-stanley-kurtz#
Trager wants the United States to help
the liberal renaissance the revolution itself could not.

SCAF backlash causes an anti-american campaign that destroys US cred and turns case
Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811
Reporting from Washington and Cairo
administration, according to a July survey by Zogby International.

That means they won’t even accept the aid
Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811
Gen. Hassan Roweini
be accused of being a spy."
That turns terrorism-AQ will capitalize on perception of US hijacking the revolution
Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811
Nongovernmental groups are
America of usurping the revolution to protect its interests.

It also proves low cred takes out the case but not our DA
Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811
Egypt's reform advocates
did not influence the revolution."

And, military relations key to stabilizing the transition and the economy
Schenker 7/25 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute "Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations" July 25 2011 www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=
Given the uncertainties related
the $250 million appropriated last year.

Afghan instability causes nuke war
Carafano 10 James Jay is a senior research fellow for national security at The Heritage Foundation and directs its Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, “Con: Obama must win fast in Afghanistan or risk new wars across the globe,” Jan 2 http://gazettextra.com/news/2010/jan/02/con-obama-must-win-fast-afghanistan-or-risk-new-wa/
We can expect similar
puny EU military force incapable of defending the interests of its nations.

Resiliency not responsive
Schenker 11 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute "Egypt’s Enduring Challenges as it Faces the United States" July 18 www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52417&pageid=&pagename=
In an effort to reinvigorate Egypt’s regional
with the United States.

Military aid doesn’t buy resiliency-SCAF decisions are based on pragmatism and self-preservation-our links prove the aff alters their calculations of prudence-and, if they cause the military to return to the barracks that collapses influence
Schenker 9/15 David Schenker is Aufizen fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy “Washington’s Limited Influence in Egypt”September 15 www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html?nopager=1
Putting aside White House claims
eventually returns to the barracks. 

No chance of a terrorist attack
Mueller 8/2—IR prof at Ohio State. PhD in pol sci from UCLA (2 August 2011, John, The Truth about Al Qaeda, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show)

As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, "
at one in 3.5 million per year, even with 9/11 included.
They have no new recruits and are internally divided
Byman 11—Prof in the Security Studies Program at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown. Research Director at the Saban Center for M.E. Policy at Brookings (24 May 2011, Daniel, Al Qaeda’s Terrible Spring, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67864/daniel-byman/al-qaedas-terrible-spring)

Still, bin Laden’s demise could
focused internally rather than externally.

No extinction
Posner 5—Senior Lecturer, U  Chicago Law. Judge on the US Court of Appeals 7th Circuit. AB from Yale and LLB from Harvard. (Richard, Catastrophe, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html)

Yet the fact that Homo sapiens
contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. 

Israel will resort to aggressive military campaigns-history proves, and their campaigns will become more violent to shore up its deterrent-it collapses relations and turns case
Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf
To restore its image
U.S.-Israeli crisis or external pressure on the United States, will fuel the international campaign to delegitimize Israel.

Timeframe and probability-it collapses SQ deterrence and is perception based, which means the threshold for escalation is extremely low-it makes mid-east war far more likely and results in biological warfare
Beres 11 Louis René Beres is a professor of Political Science at Purdue University, an expert on Israeli security matters and the author of 10 major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. "The unforeseen risks of Palestinian statehood" 6/9/11www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-unforeseen-risks-of-palestinian-statehood-1.382766
Why should Israel need
of chemical and biological weapons stocks in the region. Depending upon where these dangerous materials would wind up, in the Middle East and North Africa, or even in North America, they could exacerbate the already-expected harms of any UN-declared state of Palestine.
 

The plan is blatantly not topical-it says provide “material assistance”-that could include military aid, development aid, etc-none of these are topical-democracy assistance requires liberal governance as a primary purpose
Steven E. Finkel et al 7, Daniel H. Wallace Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh (formerly, University of Virginia) AND Anibal Perez-Linan, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh AND Mitchell A. Seligson, Centennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University," The Effects of U.S. Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2003" World Politics 59.3 (2007) 404-440, MUSE
Based on existing theories of democratization
Endowment for Democracy and of usaid's Democracy and Governance Office.

Their untopical plantext is impresice and destroys policy-making-voting issue
Steven E. Finkel et al 7, Daniel H. Wallace Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh (formerly, University of Virginia) AND Anibal Perez-Linan, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh AND Mitchell A. Seligson, Centennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University,"The Effects of U.S. Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2003" World Politics 59.3 (2007) 404-440, MUSE
To be sure, there is a growing
general causal mechanisms driving the processes of democratization.

SKFTA, K, conditions CP, world bank CP - all under other headers 

Posner 5—Senior Lecturer, U  Chicago Law. Judge on the US Court of Appeals 7th Circuit. AB from Yale and LLB from Harvard. (Richard, Catastrophe, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html)

Yet the fact that Homo sapiens
extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. 

Kahn 11 Jeremy Kahn, writer for Newsweek, IHT, and NYT, previous editor of the New Republic, Masters in IR from LSE and B.S. in History from Penn, "Crude reality" 2/13 www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full
Will a Middle Eastern oil
prices overall than it was in 1973.

No war – the reset’s working
NSN 10 (12 July 2010, National Security Network, “A 21st Century U.S.-Russian Relationship,” http://www.nsnetwork.org/node/1658)
U.S.-Russian reset has facilitated
critical ground and air transit for U.S. troops and supplies headed to Afghanistan. [Samuel Charap, Center for American Progress, 4/10]

Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.
Ivashov 7-Colonel General Leonid, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “Will America Fight Russia”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN  

Ivashov: Numerous scenarios and options
into motion.
 

No bioweapons
Mueller 6 - John Mueller, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Ohio State, 06, Overblown p. 20-22
Properly developed and deployed, biological weapons
biological warfare the easier he seems to think the task is."

Prefer our ev
Reynolds 5—Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. Formerly Director of Economic Research at the Hudson Institute. AB in economics from UCLA. (Alan, The Fear Industry, 6 May 2007, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8234)

Neither gentleman has been at all apologetic about his role
five people with them.   

No Middle East war
Salem 11—Director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. PhD from Harvard (Paul, 'Arab Spring' Has Yet to Alter Region's Strategic Balance, carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43907)

Despite their sweeping repercussions for both domestic and international
pattern of regional relations.

Empirically proven
Cook 7—CFR senior fellow for Mid East Studies. BA in international studies from Vassar College, an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and both an MA and PhD in political science from the University of Pennsylvania(Steven, Ray Takeyh, CFR fellow, and Suzanne Maloney, Brookings fellow, 6 /28, Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast, http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6383265, AG)

Underlying this anxiety was a scenario in which Iraq's sectarian and
prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East. 

No china rise
Goldstein 9/1—professor emeritus of IR, American U. PhD in pol sci from MIT. Former visiting professor emeritus at Yale (Sept 2011, Joshua, Think Again: War, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/think_again_war)

What about China, the most ballyhooed rising military threat of the current
though being hostile and actually going to war are quite different things).

Provision of aviation equipment
PLP No date www.policylaundering.org/keyplayers/ICAO-29th-Session.html
In addition, working paper 27 (A29-WP/27) constitutes a 'Progress Report on the Implementation of the Mechanism for Financial, Technical and Material Assistance to States with regard to Aviation Security and its overall future requirements'. This represents a good summary to the background and envisaged format of the mechanism. Notably:
• The objective
• aviation security;
Here’s a card from the GAO that describes what “material assistance is”
GAO 6 www.gao.gov/htext/d07147.html
[8] An unsolicited proposal
equipment and supplies.  

Ohio US Code No date
http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/2909.21

(H) “Material assistance
and other physical assets, except medicine or religious materials.

Daniela Huber 11 PhD IR Candidate @ Hebrew U, MA in International Relations from the Free University of Berlin, email exchange on August 1 2011, full exchange can be found at nudebate.blogspot.com
I think that democracy assistance
military invasion.

Precise definitions are key
Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies U of Leuven. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin
By the end of the 1990s, the term ‘democracy
the approach, both in theory and in practice, will ultimately be undermined.

Lack of specification makes debating the merits of the plan impossible and tanks solvency-bureaucratic confusion results in failed democracy assistance
Spence 4 – Matthew Spence, Co-Founder and Director of the Truman National Security Project, formerly Lecturer in IR at Oxford, Ph.D. in IR from Oxford, October 4, 2004, “Policy Coherence and Incoherence: The Domestic Politics of American Democracy Promotion,” online: http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf
Comparing American and European approaches
signals that realized little of America’s potential for influence.

ptx 1nr is under other headers - no new cards (they just said thumpers, winners win, and an impact turn)

1NC cites besides K and ptx

The United States federal government should threaten to suspend Bahrain’s designation as a Major Non-Nato Ally, including accompanying assistance, and threaten to rebase the Navy’s Fifth Fleet unless the Bahraini government meets benchmarks of human rights and democratization consistent with a constitutional monarchy, including but not limited to the release of political prisoners who have not committed recognizable criminal defenses 

Solves case and avoids politics
David Dietz 11 freelance journalist for The Mideaster, "Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?" 4/21/11 http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/
Nevertheless America must
such a decision would be a clear message that America is willing to stand up for human rights even if it is not always convenient.

DA 2
The US and Saudi Arabia are on the same page about Bahrain, but relations are on the brink-the plan collapses the alliance
Hanna 11—fellow and program officer at The Century Foundation, former senior fellow at the International Human Rights Law Institute, term-member of the Council on Foreign Relations (Michael Wahid, Saudi Arabia: Royal Succession, Regional Turmoil, 3/8/11 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8120/saudi-arabia-royal-succession-regional-turmoil)

The kingdom’s current defensive posture with regard to the wave of
peak. The royal family’s reaction to external drivers of instability to date suggests that it will be unwilling to engage in serious political reform and unlikely to accept any near-term reform efforts that would affect its authority to determine royal succession.  

Bahrain is the key issue for relations-the plan marks the end of the alliance
ICG 11 (The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving global conflicts "POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII):BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM" July 28 www.crisisgroup.org//media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf)
Following on the heels of the Tunisian and Egyptian
weight behind  the crown prince’s efforts to jump-start a substantive reform dialogue with the opposition. It also held to the view  that the key was to back a gradual process that, over time,  would lead to a constitutional monarchy. 

That causes Saudi nuclearization
Rozen 11 – the chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University (Laura, Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance, 4/18/11, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance)

Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's failure
demands for political rights, they are accused of being Iranian agents."

Extinction
Edelman 11—Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense—AND—Andrew Krepinevich—President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—AND—Evan Montgomery—Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric, The dangers of a nuclear Iran, FA 90;1, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.27-The-Dangers-of-a-Nuclear-Iran.pdf)

There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant
nonstate actors could gain access to these items. Some states might seek to mitigate threats to their nuclear arsenals; for instance, they might hide their weapons. In that case, however, a single intelligence compromise could leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

The opposition won’t accept anything the monarchy can offer-the only alt is regime change
MinnPost 11 Bahrain's crackdown is pushing both sides to extremes, Kristen Chick, Apr 20 2011
http://www.minnpost.com/worldcsm/2011/04/20/27631/bahrains_crackdown_is_pushing_both_sides_to_extremes
While there’s been no mention of dialogue from the ruling family since then, in a recent speech the crown prince emphasized reform. But it’s not clear what Bahrain’s rulers
the edge, where if they do anything else it's going to start looking like real democracy.”

Zero risk of regime collapse-no military defections
Micah N. Levinson 11 is a Junior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C. "What Makes Jordan and Bahrain Different" 3/7 spectator.org/archives/2011/03/07/what-makes-jordan-and-bahrain#
The good news is that the
economy and military, a development the armed forces are not eager to contemplate.

Empirics go neg-this also means Bahrain says no
Micah N. Levinson 11 is a Junior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C. "What Makes Jordan and Bahrain Different" 3/7 spectator.org/archives/2011/03/07/what-makes-jordan-and-bahrain#
History teaches that few minority-run
Tunisia, Egypt or Libya circa 2011.

Concessions by the King trigger massive blow-back from the hardliners – impact is milita violence and escalation that turn the whole case-also short-circuits solvency
Gengler 11 PhD in Political Science from the University of Michigan – Bahrain Expert A Parliament Without Opposition, http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/
The ultimate question, however, is what al-Wifaq's b
Correcting Some of the Slogans!!" So this is a heartening development.

Bahrain will ignore US aid-they’ll stay tethered to the Saudis who will wreck any US involvement
Salman Shaikh 11 is Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, "The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers" March 23 mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers
The Bahrain crisis is also showing the limits of
are in unchartered territory.

US credibility is already shot and it can’t influence the region-even if it does results won’t help US cred
Dov Zakheim 11 is a senior fellow at the CNA Corporation, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, vice chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and a member of the Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan "The politics of stability in Bahrain" March 14 shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/14/the_importance_of_stability_in_bahrain
It should come as no surprise
Middle East than those it has experienced in the past few years.

It’s too late-the aff is screwed
James Traub 11 is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and acclaimed author, magna cum laude graduate of Harvard University "The Myth of the Useful Dictator" 3/18 jmhinternational.com/news/news/selectednews/files/2011/03/20110318_ForeignPolicy_TheMythOfTheUsefulDictator.pdf
The administration argues that the United
would be a disaster for U.S. policy.

And, the only scenarios for gulf conflict are either impossible, solved by fill-in from outside forces, or aren’t solved by US presence
Kahn 11 Jeremy Kahn, writer for Newsweek, IHT, and NYT, previous editor of the New Republic, Masters in IR from LSE and B.S. in History from Penn, "Crude reality" 2/13 www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full
In their Security Studies paper, Gholz
States,” said Auerswald. “Having people wait in line for five days for gas in one part of the US is not an existential threat.”

No impact to oil shocks and they won’t happen-newest data obliterates their offense
Kahn 11 Jeremy Kahn, writer for Newsweek, IHT, and NYT, previous editor of the New Republic, Masters in IR from LSE and B.S. in History from Penn, "Crude reality" 2/13 www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full
Will a Middle Eastern oil disruption
has become less dependent on Persian Gulf oil and less sensitive to changes in crude prices overall than it was in 1973.

Iran/Shias Advantage
The aff is irrelevant-there’s no risk of Iranian influence or radicalization, regime change won’t undermine US grand strategy, and dialogue will inevitable crumble because moderate parties have died and the Prime Minister won’t negotiate
BARAK BARFI 11, Research Fellow, New America Foundation "The Arab Uprisings and U.S. Policy: What Is the American National Interest?" Middle East Policy Volume 18, Issue 2 April 28 www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/arab-uprisings-and-us-policy?print
I was also able to spend some time in Bahrain
happened during the protests following the Israeli incursion into the West Bank in April 2002.

T/Obama support of Bahraini Shia causes Saudi Shia uprising
Bhadrakumar 11  Career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service
Asia Times Online, Decoding Obama's Bahrain puzzle, M K Bhadrakumar,
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
Obama's approach is diametrically opposite
Saudi Arabia, which would be the mother of all reforms.

Plan causes massive backlash from protestors-and, they can’t win UQ-Shias aren’t radicalized, all radicalization is a product of perceived US involvement
Justin Gengler 11 is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain "The other side of radicalization in Bahrain" July15 mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain
In a July 6 interview with Egyptian journalists carried in the Al-Ahram daily, a leading Bahraini revealed that his country's February uprising was "by all measures a conspiracy involving Iran with
message: "Bahrain of the Al Khalifa: God Save Bahrain from the Traitors."

Failure to extend unequivocal support to the ruling family collapses the relationship and causes Iranian takeover-flips the whole case
S. Rob Sobhani 11, Ph.D. is President of Caspian Energy Consulting "Bahrain: Standing by an ally" 3/3/11 thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/147337-bahrain-standing-by-an-ally
This tiny island nation of one million has been a strategic ally of the US for more than 60 years. As the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Crowe once noted: “Pound for pound Bahrain has
Bahrain remains stable, prosperous and not fall into the hands of Iran or its proxies.

And, it causes allied insecurity
Thomas Fuller 11 Bahrainis Fear the U.S. Isn’t Behind Their Fight for Democracy, THReuters, March 4, 2011, James Lawler Duggan/Reuters, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/world/middleeast/05bahrain.html
Justin Gengler, a former Fulbright scholar in Bahrain
idea of monarchies in the gulf.”

That causes regional wars and nuclear proliferation-only a strong commitment checks escalation and deters Iran
Nick Ottens 10 is an historian from the Netherlands who researched Muslim revivalist movements and terrorism in nineteenth century Arabia, British India and the Sudan for his Master's thesis. He also studied the history of transatlantic relations and is currently a contributing analyst with Wikistrat, "How To Contain Iran" Oct 2 2010 atlanticsentinel.com/2010/10/how-to-contain-iran/
Writing for The Daily Star, Ramzy Mardini offers similar advice
commitment, to signal to Tehran that it’s serious about it and in order to prepare for the unthinkable.

No Iran threat-their evidence is blinded by special interests
Zarrabi 11—conducted lectures and seminars on international affairs, particularly in relation to Iran, with focus on US/Iran issues. President, regional chapter of World Affairs Council of San Diego. Author of 2 books about Iran. (Kam, CRYING WOLF, AGAIN?, 9 June 2011, www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1118.html)

Another round of the annual Israel lobby shindig
regard to its Palestinian dilemmas.

Multiple factors constrain Iranian aggression or adventurism-they’re evidence conflates motivation and capability
Kaye 10—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Nora Bensahel—adjunct prof of IR at Georgetown. PhD in pol sci from Stanford—AND—Jerrold D. Green—research professor, USC. PhD in pol sci from U Chicago—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton (Dalia Dassa, Dangerous But Not Omnipotent, Report by RAND for the Airforce and DOD, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.pdf)

To accurately gauge the strategic challenges from Iran over a ten- to fifteen
following insights for U.S. planners and strategists concerning Iran’s strategic culture, conventional military, ties to  Islamist groups, and ability to influence Arab public opinion.

Lack of economic reforms screw the aff
Rabah Ghezali 11 — Special to CNN "Bahrain: the heart of Middle Eastern tensions" 8/27 webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:DBLTx7iw1rsJ:favit.com/d/56FlM/bahrain-the-heart-of-middle-eastern-tensions+"Bahrain+is+ruled+by+a+Sunni+regime+and+Saudi+Arabia+wants+to+ensure"&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com
Saudi Arabia, which witnessed the political rise
outpouring of protest may overwhelm the region.

Reforms won’t resolve protests or instability-they’ll call for monarchy overthrow
Daily Star 11 Bahrain could become proxy battleground for regional powers, March 16, 2011, (Last updated: May 05, 2011 06:21 PM), Lin Noueihed, Reuters, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Mar/16/Bahrain-could-become-proxy-battleground-for-regional-powers.ashx#ixzz1WYnX8FNz
Even if talks succeed
too close to the regime while Shiite protesters are beaten by the police.”

Pakistan will help them even if they don’t necessarily give them nukes
Edelman 11—Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense—AND—Andrew Krepinevich—President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—AND—Evan Montgomery—Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric, The dangers of a nuclear Iran, FA 90;1, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.27-The-Dangers-of-a-Nuclear-Iran.pdf)

There is, however, at least one state that could receive
depth against its chief rival, India.

Causes war-we’re turning the only reason case turns the DA

Their resiliency args assume low level diplomacy - people in charge aren’t rational and will backlash to the plan
Bakshi 11, interviewing Molavi-Mid East Scholar at the New American Foundation (C., The state of the Saudi-U.S. relationship, globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/22/the-state-of-the-saudi-u-s-relationship/)

I talked with Afshin Molavi, Middle East scholar at the New
differences. Will this cause a dramatic break in relations? Probably not. But there is this tension right now.

Their resiliency arguments don’t assume the magnitude of the link- the plan undermines the foundation of the oil-for-security compact, which is the security of the regime and its legitimacy  
Aanna Fifield, '11 (6/16, Financial Times US Correspondent, "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship", http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1U6GSp8Bu)
Indeed, the fact that Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president, is now in
come under strain from the outset, notably when the US recognised the state of Israel in 1948.

The magnitude of the link outweighs-just because the veto pisses the Saudi’s off doesn’t mean that it kills the alliance-only the plan is seen as an existential challenge to the regime that challenges the foundation of the alliance
Aanna Fifield, '11 (6/16, Financial Times US Correspondent, "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship", http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1U6GSp8Bu)
Indeed, the fact that Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president, is now in Riyadh
under strain from the outset, notably when the US recognised the state of Israel in 1948.

Saudi’s jack the plan-they’re way more powerful than the US
Al-Tamimi 11 Oxford and Middle East Forum June 19, 2011, Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html
The result of the Bahraini government's approach has been
lies in the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

They have massive control
Ali Al Ahmed 11 is the director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs in Washington D.C. "How Saudi Arabia Thwarted Uprisings in Yemen and Bahrain" July 19 fikraforum.org/2011/07/how-saudi-arabia-thwarted-uprisings-in-yemen-and-bahrain/
Give the Saudi monarchy their dues. They are experts when
water, but also has continued to actively shape the region to fit its needs.

The Saudis will intervene and crush the plan-turns case and causes Iran/Saudi war
Doug Bandow 11 is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and the author of several books “Riyadh Scores One for Tehran” National Interest March 21 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12915
Unfortunately, Riyadh also is essentially a totalitarian theocracy. A handful of feeble gerontocrats rule and 7,000 princes
likely will be the result.

Fleet Adv-Defense
No impact to oil shocks and they won’t happen-newest data obliterates their offense
Kahn 11 Jeremy Kahn, writer for Newsweek, IHT, and NYT, previous editor of the New Republic, Masters in IR from LSE and B.S. in History from Penn, "Crude reality" 2/13 www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full
Will a Middle Eastern oil disruption crush
become less dependent on Persian Gulf oil and less sensitive to changes in crude prices overall than it was in 1973.

No country can take over the Gulf - US presence not key
Eugene Gholz 10 Associate Professor of Public Affairs, UT. PhD in pol sci from MIT—and—Daryl Press—Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth. PhD in pol sci from MIT, Footprints in the Sand, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article-bd.cfm?piece=788
For decades, the cornerstone of U.S. military planning
regional adversaries, this would not be a significant factor.

No conflict
No army defection = no risk of civil war

Prefer our model of state collapse-army defections make or break state collapse-odds of breakdown in Bahrain are functionally zero
Barry Rubin 11 professor @ Israel IDC, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, “How And Why Most Middle East Regimes Will Survive the Current Turmoil” April 9 http://www.crethiplethi.com/how-and-why-most-middle-east-regimes-will-survive-the-current-turmoil/islamic-countries/saudi-arabia/2011/
In discussing recent developments in the Middle East
going to happen elsewhere.

Protestors and government supporters are viscerally backlashing to US involvement-any support or pressure will get outright rejected  
Justin Gengler 11 is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain "The other side of radicalization in Bahrain" July15 mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain
Rising Sunni cleric Sheikh ‘Abd al-Latif Al Mahmud
worked so steadfastly to preserve.

Protestors are explicitly rejecting US involvement-they want a hands off approach
Winegards 11 Cortne  Jai Winegard has a Master’s Degree in community development and urban planning , and Ben, graduate student studying evolutionary and developmental psychology at the University of Missouri, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies,” March 11
The future of Bahrain remains uncertain, while
representatives, urging that the US not participate in squelching any incipient democratic movements; and we should get busy organizing. This much is our responsibility.

Iranian and radicalization fears are only justifications for the regime to irrationally hold onto power-there’s nothing the US can do to influence events
Jonathan Guyer 11 Program Associate for the Middle East Task Force and assistance editor of The Middle East Channel "In Bahrain: A Gulf Between U.S. Interests and Values" May 26 middleeast.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/in_bahrain_a_gulf_between_us_interests_and_values_52035
Indeed, Obama delivered
leadership will stick to its sectarian guns rather than commit to a new era of political cooperation with Shiites.

Obama can’t influence Bahraini events
BARAK BARFI 11, Research Fellow, New America Foundation "The Arab Uprisings and U.S. Policy: What Is the American National Interest?" Middle East Policy Volume 18, Issue 2 April 28 www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/arab-uprisings-and-us-policy?print
I want to finish by talking a little bit about the
what people think on the ground is somewhat limited.

Aff -Shia uprising
Bahrain constitutional monarchy causes shia uprisings everywhere
Atul Aneja 11 is currently posted as the West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu” newspaper "Protest Movements in West Asia: Some Impressions" Strategic Analysis Volume 35, Issue 4, 2011 June 21, ebsco
However, in Libya, where a full-fledged rebellion against the 41 year old rule of Muammar Qaddafi began on 15
powerful precedent, encouraging similar uprisings in other parts of the Gulf.

Bahraini concessions will snowball to Saudi Shia population
Daily Star 11 Bahrain could become proxy battleground for regional powers, March 16, 2011, (Last updated: May 05, 2011 06:21 PM), Lin Noueihed, Reuters, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Mar/16/Bahrain-could-become-proxy-battleground-for-regional-powers.ashx#ixzz1WYnX8FNz
Analysts saw the troop movement as a mark of concern in Saudi Arabia that
risks of contagion are lost on no one.

No iran
The Shia in Bahrain are explicitly distancing themselves from Iran-they don’t want any Iranian involvement
Ali & Abdo 11 Dr Jasim Husain Ali is member of the parliament of Bahrain and the Wefaq, the leading Shia opposition group. Geneive Abdo is the director of the Iran programme for The Century Foundation and the National Security Network "Misunderstanding Bahrain's Shia protesters" Apr 3 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/201132982742988712.html
The Shia in Bahrain have recently been distancing themselves
Vilayat-e Faqih, the concept of supreme clerical rule.

US promotion of reforms will just leave the US with no allies and no credible regional strategy-causes US kickout, Iranian influence, and turns case
George Friedman 11 chief intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor B.A. at the City College of New York and a Ph.D. in government at Cornell University "Obama and the Arab Spring" May 24 www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/05/24/obama_and_the_arab_spring_99530.html
Obama appears to have reached three
risks the coalition he has by alienating regimes in places like Bahrain or Saudi Arabia without gaining either democracy or friends.

1NC was same as RR went for:

Best scientific models show economic decline is key to solving anthropogenic run-away warming that will cause total extinction
Dr. Minqi Li 10, Assistant Professor Department of Economics, University of Utah, “The 21st Century Crisis: Climate Catastrophe or Socialism” Paper prepared for the David Gordon Memorial Lecture at URPE Summer Conference 2010
The global average surface temperature
social ownership of the means of production and society-wide planning (Section 6).

Economic growth fuels fast power transitions and democratic revolutions that undermine global political stability
Dani Rodrik 11 is Professor of political economy at Harvard University "Economic growth is not enough" Feb 13 www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/937726economic-growth-is-not-enough
Perhaps the most striking finding in the United Nations’ recent 20th
progress to keep you in power forever.

Econ decline doesn’t cause war
Barnett 9—senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC (Thomas, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, 25 August 2009, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial crisis struck
all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order.

Growth causes war
Trainer 2 Senior Lecturer of School of Social Work @ University of New South Wales (Ted, If You Want Affluence, Prepare for War, Democracy & Nature, Vol. 8, No. 2, EBSCO)
If this limits-to-growth analysis is at all valid, the implications for
without global justice, and that is not possible unless rich countries move to ‘The Simpler Way’. 

Economic collapse inevitable - now’s better than later
MacKenzie 8 [Debora, Are We Doomed, New Scientist, Vol. 197 Issue 2650, p32-35, 4p, 4 May 2005, EBSCO)
DOOMSDAY. The end of civilisation. Literature and film abound with tales of plague, famine and wars which ravage the planet, leaving a few survivors scratching out a primitive existence amid the ruins. Every civilisation in history has collapsed, after all. Why should ours be any different? Doomsday scenarios typically feature a knockout blow: a
stagnation or collapse, and in the long run this cannot be sustainable.

Growth causes diseases mutations - escalates to spread rampantly  
Hamburg 8—FDA Commissioner. Senior Scientist Nuclear Threat Initiative. MD (Margaret, Germs Go Global: Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America, http://healthyamericans.org/assets/files/GermsGoGlobal.pdf)
Globalization, the worldwide movement toward economic, financial, trade
drop in tourism in 2003.53 

Extinction
Yu 9—Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past
original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).

Complexity means quick collapse is net-better for human welfare even if they win their offense-delay magnifies environmental and human impacts
Vail 5 – Jeff Vail, attorney at Davis Graham & Stubbs LLP in Denver, Colorado specializing in litigation and energy issues, former intelligence officer with the US Air Force and energy infrastructure counterterrorism specialist with the US Department of the Interior, April 28, 2005, “The Logic of Collapse,” online: http://www.jeffvail.net/2005/04/logic-of-collapse.html
But despite the declining marginal returns
to the tired mantra that “this time, in our civilization, things will be different”?

Only collapse now ensures there’s enough natural resources and ecosystem resilience left to create sustainable societies-delay means extinction
Barry 8 – Glen Barry, Ph.D. in Land Resources from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, MS in Conservation Biology and Sustainable Development from Madison, Founder and President of Ecological Internet, January 14, 2008, “Economic Collapse and Global Ecology,” online: http://www.countercurrents.org/barry140108.htm
Humanity and the Earth are faced with an enormous conundrum  sufficient
fails. Humanity can take the bitter medicine now, and recover while emerging better for it; or our total collapse can be a final, fatal death swoon.
Growth kills agricultural diversity
Chen 2k Professor of Law and Vance K. Opperman Research Scholar, University of Minnesota Law School (Jim, Globalization and Its Losers, Winter 2000, 9 Minn. J. Global Trade 157, Lexis)
Like America, the impulse toward species conservation "was
diversity continues to decline. 301

Extinction
Mulvany 1 senior policy adviser at Practical Action. Chair of the UK Food Group. Has been a trustee of Oxfam, Action Aid and CIIR and adviser to many other international NGOs. He was a founder editorial board member of Development in Practice journal. Masters degree from Oxford University and is a chartered member of the Institute of Biology AND Rachel Berger climate change Policy Advisor with Practical Action (Patrick, Agricultural Biodiversity: Farmers Sustaining the Web of Life, http://practicalaction.org/docs/advocacy/fwn_bio-div_briefing.pdf)
Agricultural biodiversity embraces the living matter
useful in confronting future challenges.

Tech fails-this card = facecrush
Martenson, PhD Economist, 9 [Dr. Chris Martenson is an independent economist and author of a popular website, ChrisMartenson.com. Chris earned a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. A fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Chris's work has appeared on PBS and been cited by the Washington Post. He is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com and FinancialSense.com, and former VP of Pfizer and SAIC “Copenhagen & Economic Growth - You Can't Have Both,” Dec 24 http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51229]
I want to point out that a massive discrepancy
line is this:  There is no possible way to both have economic growth (as we've known it in the past) and cut carbon emissions.  At least not without doing things very differently. 

The political is defined by relationships of enmity and the inevitability of violence-the goal of politics must be to limit but not eradicate war-liberalism’s attempt to supersede this inevitability collapses in on itself and denies an unequivocal truth about human nature, dissolving the political  
Rasch 5 – William Rasch, Professor of Germanic Studies at the University of Indiana, Spring 2005, “Lines in the Sand: Enmity as a Structuring Principle,” The South Atlantic Quarterly, Vol. 104, No. 2, p. 253-262 [  ] = modified
In The Concept of the Political, Schmitt concludes that ‘‘all genuine
imperfection manifests itself as violence and the guilt associated with it.

Democracy inevitably collapses into perverted presumptions of humanism that generate absolute enmity and recourse to total war
Prozorov 6 – Sergei Prozorov, collegium fellow at the Helsinki Collegium for Advanced Studies, University of Helsinki, Professor of International Relations in the Department of International Relations, Faculty of Politics and Social Sciences, Petrozavodsk State University, Russia, 2006, “Liberal Enmity: The Figure of the Foe in the Political Ontology of Liberalism,” Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 35, No. 1, p. 75-99
This Foucauldian thesis parallels Schmitt’s critique
politics of the foe is impossible unless it passes through the stage of an ontological critique of liberalism, hence the present importance of Schmitt.

That generates total war through paranoia and genocidal conflicts of all against all
Reinhard 4 – Kenneth Reinhard, Professor of Jewish Studies at UCLA, 2004, “Towards a Political Theology- Of the Neighbor,” online: http://www.cjs.ucla.edu/Mellon/Towards_Political_Theology.pdf
If the concept of the political is defined, as Carl Schmitt
cruelty, even hatred, would regain reassuring and ultimately appeasing contours, because they would be identifiable” (PF 83). 

Vote negative to reject democratic universalism in favor of a relationship of properly political enmity with Islam-we agree with nearly every part of the 1AC with the exception of the plan
Rasch 5 – William Rasch, Professor of Germanic Studies at the University of Indiana, Spring 2005, “Lines in the Sand: Enmity as a Structuring Principle,” The South Atlantic Quarterly, Vol. 104, No. 2, p. 253-262
How is this possible? Despite its internal self-differentiation, Europe still saw
nightmares of absolute exclusion.

Corporate Tax Reform DA

Will pass
AP 10-13 – Associated Press Financial Wire, October 13, 2011, “Boehner, Obama talk jobs as Senate GOP offers plan,” p. lexis
White House spokesman Josh

with the White House and Democrats controlling the Senate.

Plan drains capital

L.A. Times 11 Paul Richter, April 12, 2011, “U.S. aid Arabs: Debt worries stymie U.S. aid to Arab nations in transition”, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413
The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid to help Middle East and North African nations undergoing democratic transitions have been stopped short

justify nation-building in foreign countries."

Political capital’s key-reform’s key to competitiveness and preventing offshoring

Curtis Dubay 11, Senior Analyst in Tax Policy in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, February 11, 2011, “CORPORATE TAX REFORM SHOULD FOCUS ON RATE REDUCTION,” States News Service, p. lexis
President Barack Obama called

par with the current OECD average.

Competitiveness prevents balance of power transitions that cause great power war - now is key to reverse shifts

Sanjaya Baru 2009 is a Visiting Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168

Hence, economic policies

America remains to be seen.

T—

Lack of specification makes debating the merits of the plan impossible and tanks solvency-bureaucratic confusion results in failed democracy assistance

Spence 4 – Matthew Spence, Co-Founder and Director of the Truman National Security Project, formerly Lecturer in IR at Oxford, Ph.D. in IR from Oxford, October 4, 2004, “Policy Coherence and Incoherence: The Domestic Politics of American Democracy Promotion,” online: http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf
Comparing American and

send weak and disorganized signals that realized little of America’s potential for influence.

VI for limits and ground-hundreds of sub-agencies from the USAID to DOD to NED to NERD all conduct different DA programs with different funding streams that change DA links-overstretches our research burden and wrecks 1NC strategy. 

CP

The European Union should propose to the United States Federal Government a high-level transatlantic strategic forum for coordinating policies toward democratic reform in the Middle East and North Africa, modeled on the U.S.-EU strategic dialogue on Asia. The European Union should inform the United States of its intention to take a lead donor role on Rule of Law assistance to the National Transitional Council in Libya. The European Union should provide Rule of Law assistance to the National Transitional Council in Libya. The European Union should propose that the forum release a joint diplomatic statement of high-level transatlantic support for the European initiative.

Funding should be provided by increasing the percentage of the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument that is devoted to democracy.

EU-driven democracy promotion solves the whole case better-it’s key to EU soft power and transatlantic strategic partnership-the perm undermines it

Richard Youngs 4, President, Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior, a think tank based in Madrid; Assistant Professor of Politics & International Studies at the University of Warwick, November 2004, “Trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Mis-judgment?,” online: http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/352.pdf
Europeans risk becoming so fixated with disassociating

broadening of ongoing EU programmes.

The CP triggers U.S. support-and the precise mechanism of high-level dialogue driven by the EU is key to integrated international response to the Arab Spring and EU leadership

Stefano Silvestri 11, president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, an Italian think-tank, founded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, does research in the fields of foreign policy, political economy and international security, May 9 2011, “A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean,” online: http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1110.pdf
The crisis of the Arab regimes

better at the local level if the larger context is not overlooked.

European initiative’s key to EU leadership and transatlantic strategic partnership-the perm triggers EU backlash against US ownership which destroys the forum

Richard Youngs 4, President, Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior, a think tank based in Madrid; Assistant Professor of Politics & International Studies at the University of Warwick, November 2004, “Trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Mis-judgment?,” online: http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/352.pdf
 

If this would be good both for Europe and the

depend on the convergence and effectiveness of European and American approaches to democracy promotion.

EU relations are at a key turning point-cementing strategic partnership’s key to solve every global impact-including the case

Dr. Yannis A. Stivachtis 10, Director, International Studies Program, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, 2010, “THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” online: http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html
There is no doubt that US-European

publics on both sides of the Atlantic.

US has renewed commitment to Pakistani economic assistance

AFP 11
(“US renews commitment to economic support for Pakistan”, July 15, Business Recorder, http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/business-a-economy.html)
WASHINGTON: The United States

opportunity to touch base with Pakistan to ensure that this civilian assistance continues and to look at our priorities and make sure that they match Pakistan’s

The plan forces a tradeoff within the ESF budget

POMED 11
(Project on Middle East Democracy, “Summary and Highlights of FY11 Appropriations Act”, April 17, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/04/summary-and-highlights-of-fy11-appropriations-act.html/)
Speaking on the wave of democratic

Economic Support Funds intended for other programming.

ESF funding is key to Pakistani economic growth and stability

Kronstadt and Epstein 11
(Susan B., Specialist in Foreign Policy, Alan K., Specialist in South Asian Affairs, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance”, June 7, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41856.pdf)
The Economic Support Fund (ESF), $1,360 million

Assistance—ESF is used directly or is transferred to other accounts to assist Pakistan during humanitarian crises. (FY2010—$10.0 million; FY2012 request—$20.0 million)

Pakistani econ decline causes regional instability, terror, economic collapse, and global conflict

Walayat 10
(Nadeem, Editor – Market Oracle, “Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III”, The Market Oracle, 1-16, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html)
Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global

War much as the 1930's Great Deflationary Depression ultimately resulted in the Second World War.

Solvency

U.S. lack of credibility means the plan does nothing-it’s impossible for the U.S. to play a constructive role

Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
Though the spectacular events in Cairo have ended with Hosni

Europe. Such a change in policy would have been seen as much too little, much too late.

US involvement only generates backlash against the government.

Applebaum 8/2 (Legatum Institute's Director of Political Studies, 23 August 2011, Anne, In Praise of Leading From Behind, http://www.slate.com/id/2302129/)
The Libyan revolution needn't end in civil war. At

because it had so few public advocates in the West. That's not a good sign for the future. But then, that's our problem, not Libya's.

US involvement increases chances of failure

Brenner 11 (Michael Brenner - Senior Fellow, the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Professor of International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, "Libya through the Looking Glass," August 29, 2011, Huffington Post, www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/libya-through-the-looking_b_940151.html)
The talk  now rife  of what the United States

where most peoples are fed up with being pushed around by 'superior' Westerners  above all, know-it-all Americans.

Terrorism

No motivation for nuclear terror

Francis J. Gavin 10, Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, “Same As It Ever Was,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Winter 2009/10), pp. 7–37

A recent study contends that al-Qaida’s interest in acquiring

powered by nuclear fission, is overstated, and that popular wisdom on the topic is significantly flawed.”59

No chance of a terrorist attack

Mueller 8/2—IR prof at Ohio State. PhD in pol sci from UCLA (2 August 2011, John, The Truth about Al Qaeda, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show)

As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, "If your enemy be an ant, imagine him to be an elephant." The new information unearthed in Osama bin Laden's hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, suggests that the United States has
million per year, even with 9/11 included.

No risk of Al Qaeda attack – multiple factors.

Jenkins 10 (Brian Michael Jenkins – Senior Advisor to president at RAND, Research focus in Terrorism; counterinsurgency; homeland security, M.A. and B.A. in history, University of California, Los Angeles “Would-Be Warriors Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001,” RAND, 2010, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2010/RAND_OP292.pdf)
While radicalization and recruitment to jihadist

imminent attack, citizens became more watchful and reported suspicious activity, which in at least a few of the cases yielded real results, adding further to a deterrent effect.

Soft power fails-no coordination between US diplomatic agencies and it’s not key to influence

Adelman 11-Master’s and PhD from Georgetown’s School. Frmr director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, former Ambassador to the UN, and former member of Pentagon's Defense Policy Board (6/18/11, Ken, Not-So-Smart Power, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power)

I didn't hear of similar

fashionable thinking seem soft, if not altogether squishy.

Soft power doesn’t solve anything

Rachman 9 [Gideon Rachman is the Economist's bureau chief in Brussels, June 1 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e608b556-4ee0-11de-8c10-00144feabdc0.html]  

Barack Obama is a soft power president. But the world

obvious that soft power also has its limits.

Squo solves democratic cred

Young 8/25-opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut. Master’s in IR from Johns Hopkins (25 August 2011, Michael, Arab Spring gives US a new chance in the Middle East, www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/arab-spring-gives-us-a-new-chance-in-the-middle-east?pageCount=0)

Mr Obama has been lucky - not a bad thing

invariably supports authoritarianism in Arab states, Washington will have greater latitude to assist in bringing about democratic outcomes. This will permit it to end the unhealthy relationships of the past decades, in which American authority rested on leaders who had largely lost their legitimacy by stifling liberty and economic development.

Diplomacy high - Obama’s international agenda and effective multilateralism will be implemented even if he isn’t directly involved

Rothkopf 7/27-visiting scholar at Carnegie. Columbia grad (27 July 2011, David, Good news: American political leadership at work ... far from the beltway, http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/27/good_news_american_political_leadership_at_work_far_from_the_beltway)

In this moment of national confusion and public despair with officials in Washington

comes close and I have high regard for many of them."

 Strategic coordination on MENA democracy policy spills over and solves alt-causes-remedies European refusal to support U.S. policy priorities on Afghanistan, stimulus spending, and EU defense budgets

Will Inboden 11, Non-Resident Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, September 16, 2011, “Transatlantic trends: Weather change or climate change?,” online: http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/15/transatlantic_trends_weather_change_or_climate_change
Transatlantic Trends finds continued high approval ratings of 75 percent for President Obama among European publics  certainly much higher than his cratered approval ratings in the Middle East,

and good for the Arab world as well.

Independently-strategic partnership solves extinction

Maria João Rodrigues 11, Professor at the European Studies Institute-Université Libre de Bruxelles and at the Lisbon University Institute, Special Advisor on European Economic Policies, 2011, “Transatlantic cooperation for jobs and a new growth model,” in The Agenda for the EU-US strategic partnership, online: http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Transatlantic2011.pdf
The strategic priorities

transatlantic cooperation.

We’ll impact the laundry list individually:

 Russia

Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks either by denial or by threat of retaliation.168 Given a multipolar world structure with little ideological rivalry among major powers, it is unlikely that they will go to war with each other. Rather, like Russia, they will strive for exclusive hegemony in their own “sphere of influence” and use nuclear instruments towards that end. However, wars may well break out between major powers and weaker “peripheral” states or between peripheral and semiperipheral states given their lack of domestic legitimacy, the absence of the means of crisis prevention, the visible absence of crisis management mechanisms, and their strategic calculation that asymmetric wars might give them the victory or respite they need.169 Simultaneously,

The states of periphery and semiperiphery have far more opportunities for political maneuvering. Since war remains a political option, these states may find it convenient to exercise their military power as a means for achieving political objectives. Thus international crises may increase in number. This has two important implications for the use of WMD. First, they may be used deliberately to offer a decisive victory (or in Russia’s case, to achieve “intra-war escalation control”—author170) to the striker, or for defensive purposes when imbalances in military capabilities are significant; and second, crises increase the possibilities of inadvertent or accidental wars involving WMD.171

Obviously nuclear proliferators or states that are expanding their nuclear arsenals like Russia can exercise a great influence upon world politics if they chose to defy the prevailing consensus and use their weapons not as defensive weapons, as has been commonly thought, but as offensive weapons to threaten other states and deter nuclear powers. Their decision to go either for cooperative security and strengthened international military-political norms of action, or for individual national “egotism” will critically affect world politics. For, as Roberts observes,

But if they drift away from those efforts [to bring about more cooperative security], the consequences could be profound. At the very least, the effective functioning of inherited mechanisms of world order, such as the special responsibility of the “great powers” in the management of the interstate system, especially problems of armed aggression, under the aegis of collective security, could be significantly impaired. Armed with the ability to defeat an intervention, or impose substantial costs in blood or money on an intervening force or the populaces of the nations marshaling that force, the newly empowered tier could bring an end to collective security operations, undermine the credibility of alliance commitments by the great powers, [undermine guarantees of extended deterrence by them to threatened nations and states] extend alliances of their own, and perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172

 China

Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to the United States that the PRC does not become the hegemon of Eastern Eurasia. As noted above, however, regardless of what Washington does, China's success in such an endeavor is not as easily attainable as pessimists might assume. The PRC appears to be on track to be a very great power indeed, but geopolitical conditions are not favorable for any Chinese effort to establish sole hegemony; a robust multipolar system should suffice to keep China in check, even with only minimal American intervention in local squabbles. The more worrisome danger is that Beijing will cooperate with a great power partner, establishing a very muscular axis. Such an entity would present a critical danger to the balance of power, thus both necessitating very active American intervention in Eastern Eurasia and creating the underlying conditions for a massive, and probably nuclear, great power war. Absent such a "super-threat," however, the demands on American leaders will be far more subtle: creating the conditions for Washington's gentle decline from playing the role of unipolar quasi-hegemon to being "merely" the greatest of the world's powers, while aiding in the creation of a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances.

 North Korea

Hayes 10 Peter Hayes, *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND, Michael Hamel-Green,  Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf
At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack 1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westberg’s view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow…The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger…To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.4 These, of course, are not the only consequences. Reactors might also be targeted, causing further mayhem and downwind radiation effects, superimposed on a smoking, radiating ruin left by nuclear next-use. Millions of refugees would flee the affected regions. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by comparison. How the great powers, especially the nuclear weapons states respond to such a crisis, and in particular, whether nuclear weapons are used in response to nuclear first-use, could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes. There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear breakout and geopolitical turbulence, including possible loss-of-control over fissile material or warheads in the chaos of nuclear war, and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states. The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community. 

Response to the Arab Spring determines the future of all EU strategic foreign policy

Ian Lesser 11 is executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s Transatlantic Center in Brussels, October 4, 2011, "Strategic Europe Revisited: A Transatlantic View," online: carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45660&lang=en
Assuming that Europe (including

strategic approach to Mexico. Perhaps Europe can do better in its near abroad?

The plan and perm undermine U.S. commitments to the Paris Declaration which obligates parties to coordinate aid projects and avoid duplication with other donors

Gregory Adams et al 8, Associate Director for Policy and Advocacy, Oxfam America, 2008, “A New Roadmap for U.S. Engagement with the World,” online: http://www.connectusfund.org/files/AFSCRoadmap.pdf
The U.S. can improve the effectiveness

involve low-income country governments as well as civil society organizations, in the creation of an inclusive framework for international aid effectiveness beyond 2010.

U.S.-EU cooperation on democracy assistance is a key test case for Paris Declaration principles-the CP’s application spills over to bolster aid effectiveness and shape future perceptions of aid

Vidar Helgesen 11, Secretary-General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, March 2011, “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US,” online: http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf
Despite often being referred to at a rhetorical level,

actors in this process and could have a real impact in this area through more coordinated transatlantic action.

Improved aid effectiveness solves North-South disparity-prevents global nuclear wars

Joshua S. Goldstein 10, Professor Emeritus, School of International Service, American University , 2010, “Changing World Order - Engaging the South,” online: http://wps.ablongman.com/long_goldstein_ir_7/35/8977/2298242.cw/index.html
In the last chapter’s “Changing World Order” section

Congo fall apart without upsetting the rest of the world? Could all of Latin America or all of Africa? Will the emerging world order bring together the North and South in new ways?

The CP’s Joint Forum and diplomatic statement solve the case better-the process creates a framework for overall democracy promotion that outweighs small solvency deficits-and the EU doing the plan is key
Wittes & Youngs 9 – Tamara Coffman Wittes, Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and directs the Center’s Project on Middle East Democracy and Development; Richard Youngs, Coordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, associate professor at the University of Warwick, January 2009, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” online: http://www.fride.org/download/OP_Europe_USA_Middle_Demo3_ENG_enero09.pdf
Challenges to greater policy coordination and effectiveness derive not only, or even primarily, from the invasion of Iraq. They also result from the more prosaic fact that the European Union and

new beginning on joint support for democratic reform in the Middle East is both possible and well worth pursuing.

1NC

The European Union should propose to the United States Federal Government a high-level transatlantic strategic forum for coordinating policies toward democratic reform in the Middle East and North Africa, modeled on the U.S.-EU strategic dialogue on Asia. The European Union should inform the United States of its intention to take a lead donor role on Rule of Law assistance to the National Transitional Council in Libya. The European Union should provide Rule of Law assistance to the National Transitional Council in Libya. The European Union should propose that the forum release a joint diplomatic statement of high-level transatlantic support for the European initiative.

Funding should be provided by increasing the percentage of the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument that is devoted to democracy.

EU-driven democracy promotion solves the whole case better-it’s key to EU soft power and transatlantic strategic partnership-the perm undermines it

Richard Youngs 4, President, Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior, a think tank based in Madrid; Assistant Professor of Politics & International Studies at the University of Warwick, November 2004, “Trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Mis-judgment?,” online:
Europeans risk becoming so fixated with disassociating

broadening of ongoing EU programmes.

The CP triggers U.S. support-and the precise mechanism of high-level dialogue driven by the EU is key to integrated international response to the Arab Spring and EU leadership

Stefano Silvestri 11, president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, an Italian think-tank, founded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, does research in the fields of foreign policy, political economy and international security, May 9 2011, “A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean,” online:
The crisis of the Arab regimes

better at the local level if the larger context is not overlooked.

European initiative’s key to EU leadership and transatlantic strategic partnership-the perm triggers EU backlash against US ownership which destroys the forum

Richard Youngs 4, President, Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior, a think tank based in Madrid; Assistant Professor of Politics & International Studies at the University of Warwick, November 2004, “Trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Mis-judgment?,” online:
 

If this would be good both for Europe and the

depend on the convergence and effectiveness of European and American approaches to democracy promotion.

EU relations are at a key turning point-cementing strategic partnership’s key to solve every global impact-including the case

Dr. Yannis A. Stivachtis 10, Director, International Studies Program, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, 2010, “THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” online:
There is no doubt that US-European

publics on both sides of the Atlantic.

2NC

 Strategic coordination on MENA democracy policy spills over and solves alt-causes-remedies European refusal to support U.S. policy priorities on Afghanistan, stimulus spending, and EU defense budgets

Will Inboden 11, Non-Resident Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, September 16, 2011, “Transatlantic trends: Weather change or climate change?,” online:
Transatlantic Trends finds continued high approval ratings of 75 percent for President Obama among European publics  certainly much higher than his cratered approval ratings in the Middle East,

and good for the Arab world as well.

Independently-strategic partnership solves extinction

Maria João Rodrigues 11, Professor at the European Studies Institute-Université Libre de Bruxelles and at the Lisbon University Institute, Special Advisor on European Economic Policies, 2011, “Transatlantic cooperation for jobs and a new growth model,” in The Agenda for the EU-US strategic partnership, online:
The strategic priorities

transatlantic cooperation.

We’ll impact the laundry list individually:

 Russia

Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online:
Proliferators or nuclear states...their neighbors or their own people.172

 China

Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance... close great power alliances.

 North Korea

Hayes 10 Peter Hayes, *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND, Michael Hamel-Green,  Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,”
At worst, there is the possibility ... from the international community. 

Response to the Arab Spring determines the future of all EU strategic foreign policy

Ian Lesser 11 is executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s Transatlantic Center in Brussels, October 4, 2011, "Strategic Europe Revisited: A Transatlantic View," online: carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45660&lang=en
Assuming that Europe (including

strategic approach to Mexico. Perhaps Europe can do better in its near abroad?

The plan and perm undermine U.S. commitments to the Paris Declaration which obligates parties to coordinate aid projects and avoid duplication with other donors

Gregory Adams et al 8, Associate Director for Policy and Advocacy, Oxfam America, 2008, “A New Roadmap for U.S. Engagement with the World,” online:
The U.S. can improve the effectiveness

involve low-income country governments as well as civil society organizations, in the creation of an inclusive framework for international aid effectiveness beyond 2010.

U.S.-EU cooperation on democracy assistance is a key test case for Paris Declaration principles-the CP’s application spills over to bolster aid effectiveness and shape future perceptions of aid

Vidar Helgesen 11, Secretary-General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, March 2011, “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US,” online:
Despite often being referred to at a rhetorical level,

actors in this process and could have a real impact in this area through more coordinated transatlantic action.

Improved aid effectiveness solves North-South disparity-prevents global nuclear wars

Joshua S. Goldstein 10, Professor Emeritus, School of International Service, American University , 2010, “Changing World Order - Engaging the South,” online:
In the last chapter’s “Changing World Order” section

Congo fall apart without upsetting the rest of the world? Could all of Latin America or all of Africa? Will the emerging world order bring together the North and South in new ways?

The CP’s Joint Forum and diplomatic statement solve the case better-the process creates a framework for overall democracy promotion that outweighs small solvency deficits-and the EU doing the plan is key
Wittes & Youngs 9 – Tamara Coffman Wittes, Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and directs the Center’s Project on Middle East Democracy and Development; Richard Youngs, Coordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, associate professor at the University of Warwick, January 2009, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” online:
Challenges to greater policy coordination and ... is both possible and well worth pursuing.

US has renewed commitment to Pakistani economic assistance

AFP 11
(“US renews commitment to economic support for Pakistan”, July 15, Business Recorder, http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/business-a-economy.html)
WASHINGTON: The United States

opportunity to touch base with Pakistan to ensure that this civilian assistance continues and to look at our priorities and make sure that they match Pakistan’s

The plan forces a tradeoff within the ESF budget

POMED 11
(Project on Middle East Democracy, “Summary and Highlights of FY11 Appropriations Act”, April 17, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/04/summary-and-highlights-of-fy11-appropriations-act.html/)
Speaking on the wave of democratic

Economic Support Funds intended for other programming.

ESF funding is key to Pakistani economic growth and stability

Kronstadt and Epstein 11
(Susan B., Specialist in Foreign Policy, Alan K., Specialist in South Asian Affairs, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance”, June 7, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41856.pdf)
The Economic Support Fund (ESF), $1,360 million

Assistance—ESF is used directly or is transferred to other accounts to assist Pakistan during humanitarian crises. (FY2010—$10.0 million; FY2012 request—$20.0 million)

Pakistani econ decline causes regional instability, terror, economic collapse, and global conflict

Walayat 10
(Nadeem, Editor – Market Oracle, “Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III”, The Market Oracle, 1-16, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html)
Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global

War much as the 1930's Great Deflationary Depression ultimately resulted in the Second World War.

1NC K, EU CP w/internal NB, Corporate Tax DA, case

Short run instability won’t cause middle east conflict and there’s nothing the US can do to solve it-lack of cred takes out the case
Traub 11 James Traub is a contributing writer for The Times Magazine and a weekly columnist for ForeignPolicy.com "Is There Light At The End of Egypt's Tunnel?" Sept 23 www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/the_storm_before_the_calm
The most hopeful
short run  and certainly harmful to Israel's  in the end it will produce a more stable and more peaceful Middle East.

The plan triggers a backlash by the SCAF-it’s perceived as interference
Sharp 11 – Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, August 23, 2011, “Egypt in Transition,” online: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/171381.pdf

Controversy over U.S. Democracy Aid to Egypt and Growing Anti
operated inside Egypt in the past, clearly the SCAF has made an issue of their presence in the current charged political climate.

That causes them to radicalize their foreign policy and collapses relations
Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO
Yet the United States' capacity to advance democratization
maintaining peace with Israel, an attitude that the United States can do little to change.

Relations high now but backlash crushes overall hegemony, causes Israel war, and prevents Iranian containment-it’s a bigger and faster internal link to the case
WOOD 11 DAVID WOOD Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/
Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne
services will continue.''

Egyptian democracy assistance fails
a. They only appeal to people who are already liberal-they don’t change opinions
Anne Mariel Peters 11 is an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt” February 14, 2011 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt
One of the most enduring critiques of the Obama administration's
funding can do.

Internal stability now
 Wisner 9/13 Interviewed By: Frank G. Wisner, External Affairs, AIG Inc. AND Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor www.cfr.org/egypt/repairing-egypt-israel-breach/p25841
Are you concerned about Mubarak's trial or the growing anti-Israel sentiment in Egypt?
The issue is where is Egypt headed
is its history over thousands of years.

Polls prove-there’s massive support for the current government direction-no one cares about the election, only the economy
Tessler & Robbins 9/20 Mark Tessler is Samuel J. Eldersveld Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Vice-Provost for International Affairs at the University of Michigan. AND Michael Robbins is a Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan and a former Dubai Initiative Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School.  "What Egyptians mean by democracy" Sept 20 mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/20/what_egyptians_mean_by_democracy
Egyptian activists took to the streets on September 9 calling to "correct the path" of a revolution
respondents agreed that the revolution would achieve the objective.

The CP’s key to foreign direct investment in recipient states-U.S. aid is seen as geostrategically motivated which deters investors
Ana Carolina Garriga 11, Professor of Political Studies at the Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico), and Brian J. Phillips, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh, June 2011, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies,” online: http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf
These characteristics of post-conflict countries
different effects than aid provided by other states.

No internal link—this adv is a special breed of construed—Egyptian civil society assistance doesn’t spill over to change Russia’s domestic policies
No modeling
Pillar 8/15—28 year veteran of CIA and prof at Georgetown of security studies. PhD from Princeton (8/15/11, Paul, The Neocons' Undemocratic Domino, nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/the-neocons-undemocratic-domino-5766)

The hoped-for democratic
themselves. Political change is not being imposed by an outside power, much less injected through the barrel of a gun.

No war – the reset’s working
NSN 10 (12 July 2010, National Security Network, “A 21st Century U.S.-Russian Relationship,” http://www.nsnetwork.org/node/1658)
U.S.-Russian reset has facilitated several
Afghanistan. [Samuel Charap, Center for American Progress, 4/10]

Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.
Ivashov 7-Colonel General Leonid, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “Will America Fight Russia”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN  

Ivashov: Numerous scenarios and options are possible. Everything may
aggression will trigger retaliation with the use of all weapons in nuclear arsenals. It will stop the war and put negotiations into motion.

Stable deterrence – no risk of nuclear conflict.
Blair et al. 10 (Bruce Blair Ph.D., Col.-Gen. (Ret.) Victor Esin Ph.D., Matthew McKinzie Ph.D., Col. (Ret.) Valery Yarynich Ph.D., and Maj.-Gen. (Ret.) Pavel Zolotarev Ph.D., “One Hundred Nuclear Wars: Stable Deterrence between the United States and Russia at Reduced Nuclear Force Levels Off Alert in the Presence of Limited Missile Defenses  Technical Appendix to “Smaller and Safer: A New Plan for Nuclear Postures,”” Foreign Affairs, Volume 89, No. 5 A GLOBAL ZERO WORKING PAPER: VERSION 09/02/2010, http://www.globalzero.org/files/FA_appendix.pdf)
Deterrence in our view is the possibility of keeping a sufficient
readiness (i.e., different generation times to launch-ready status). By “echeloning” the forces, a stable nuclear deterrent whole is constructed from more vulnerable, de-alerted parts.

2NC/1NR

Epistemic presuppositions taint their authors’ predictions-you should discount their impacts
Nir Rosen 11, former fellow at the Center on Law and Security at the New York University School of Law, fellow at the New America Foundation, and Distinguished Visitor at The American Academy in Berlin, he is a widely accalimed journalist and writer @ Jadaliyya, he has written extensively on Iraq and Afghanistan, "A Critique of Reporting on the Middle East" May 19 2011 www.jadaliyya.com/pages/contributors/2834
Too often consumers of mainstream media are victims of
This is not just the journalists’ fault. It is driven by American discourse, which drives the editors back in New York and Washington.

Alt solves the case better
Mouffe 7 Chantal Mouffe, Professor of Political Theory at the Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster, 2007, “Carl Schmitt’s warning on the dangers of a unipolar world,” in The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt, Edited by: Odysseos and Petito, p. 152
I submit that it is high time to acknowledge the pluralist
intentions, the universalist discourse is, in fact, contributing.

Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p
Chapter 6 began by presenting a critical security perspective on thinking about the future. Here I utilised Beck’s argument regarding ‘threats to the future’ to make two interrelated points. First, it was argued
it was argued, it could be concluded that there is a need for more ‘realistic’ approaches to regional security in theory and practice.

Extinction
Pinar Bilgin 5 Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, Regional Security in the Middle East: A Critical Perspective, P164-5
Thinking about the future
regional insecurity in the Middle East.

The aff’s environmental apocalypticism causes the worst acts violence under the guise of security—turns the case and makes environmental collapse inevitable
Buell 3 [Frederick—cultural critic on the environmental crisis and a Professor of English at Queens College and the author of five books,  From Apocalypse To Way of Life, pages 185-186]

Looked at critically, then, crisis discourse
more severe deformations of nature,  temptation increased to refute it, or give up, or even cut off ties to clearly  terminal “nature.”

Russia links
Øyvind Jæger 2k @ Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Copenhagen Peace Research Institute. Peace and Conflict Studies 7.2 “Securitizing Russia: Discursive Practice of the Baltic States” shss.nova.edu/pcs/journalsPDF/V7N2.pdf”
Security is a field of practice into which subject matters can be inserted as well as exempted. Security is a code for going about a particular business in very particular ways. By labeling an issue
subjugation" (see quotation below), whereby Russia is depicted and installed as the first link in the discursive chain that follows.

First, beginning discussions at the intellectual level is more productive-it causes better social changes, takes the ideological blinders off of policy-makers, and reclaims the political-this is a reason why they don’t get their aff
Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p54-
The point is that a broader security
are theorising about security. Otherwise, they run the risk of constituting ‘threats to the future’ (Kubálková 1998: 193–201).

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB 11 is Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. MARK BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University. "The Black Swan of Cairo: how suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous." Foreign Affairs 90.3 (May-June 2011): p33 Gale
Why is surprise the permanent condition
hard to justify inaction in a democracy where the incentive is to always promise a better outcome than the other guy, regardless of the actual, delayed cost.

Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p4-
Stephen Walt’s study, The Origins of Alliances (1987) is a good
normative (for some, emancipation-oriented) approach to security in theory and practice.

Asia DA

Obama focused on committing capital to Asian summit---the plan forces a tradeoff---impact is the global economy, heg, and preventing Chinese expansionism that causes Asian war

Bower 10/27 Ernest Z. Bower is Senior Adviser and Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies "Why November Matters for Obama" Oct 27 2011 the-diplomat.com/2011/10/27/why-november-matters-for-obama/2/

The poisonous atmosphere in Washington will put pressure on Barack Obama to cut short his

scenario, but one that would threaten stability in the Asia-Pacific.

Plan’s tradeoff causes nuke war

Colby 11 – Elbridge Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, August 10, 2011, “Why the U.S. Needs its Liberal Empire,” The Diplomat, online:

But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed to swing too far toward an incautious retrenchment. For our problem hasn’t been

expenditure on those challenges and regions that don’t touch so directly on the future of US security and prosperity.

CP

Plan triggers politics but CP avoids it

Mowbray 11 Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "MOWBRAY: Deceit on the Nile" June 2 www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/2/deceit-on-the-nile/?page=all

For the first time in a generation, Egypt

Democrat, who sits on the House foreign aid panel, supports Egyptian aid, but stresses that it must be contingent on “our national interests [being] addressed properly.”

They say yes empirically---and, conditioning all assistance is key so the perm doesn’t solve

Mowbray 11 Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "MOWBRAY: Deceit on the Nile" June 2 www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/2/deceit-on-the-nile/?page=all

Congress has been down this road before

assistance will contain other conditions to help keep Egypt in the U.S. orbit.

And, ONLY the CP solves the case---they’ll pocket the plan and perm without changing their foreign policy

Mowbray 11 Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "MOWBRAY: Deceit on the Nile" June 2 www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/2/deceit-on-the-nile/?page=all

One idea being discussed is ensuring that Egypt

marks, but one certainty is that Congress won’t let Egypt slip away without a fight.

The military doesn’t perceive the threat of a cutoff now---the CP actualizes the leverage the military doesn’t think we have

Tobin 9/10 Jonathan S. Tobin is Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine "Suspend Aid to Egypt Immediately" 9/10/11www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/10/obama-aid-to-egypt-suspend/

Although the Egyptian

them to account.

Israel lobby backlashes to the plan

Jim Lobe 11 is the Washington bureau chief of the Inter Press Service and a contributor to IPS Right Web “Arab Spring Stalls as U.S. Defers to Saudi ‘Counter-revolution’” April 25 rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/arab_spring_stalls_as_us_defers_to_saudi_counter_revolution

Their eagerness to charge Tehran with foreign interference

such a good investment.

That destroys American credibility and causes Netanyahu to distance himself from the US---causes radicalization and turns case

Farmer 9/25 John Farmer The Star-Ledger "Republican politics in Washington could place Israel at risk" 9/25/11 blog.nj.com/njv_john_farmer/2011/09/republican_politics_in_washing.html

The latest example involves the Obama administration’s

neither American nor Israeli interests.

That causes Mideast conflict from Israeli self-reliance

Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

More broadly, U.S. indecision and passivity

The consequences could be destabilizing for both Israel and the United States.

That ensures miscalc and triggers biological and nuclear war

Beres 11 Louis René Beres is a professor of Political Science at Purdue University, an expert on Israeli security matters and the author of 10 major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. "The unforeseen risks of Palestinian statehood" 6/9/11www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-unforeseen-risks-of-palestinian-statehood-1.382766

In turn, such self-reliance would demand: (1) a more comprehensive

Jerusalem's conventional reprisals might still be met, in the uncertain strategic future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.

No turns --- Israeli leftists oppose Obama’s

Michael Doran 9, senior fellow in the Saban Center at Brookings, “Obama’s opening gambit,” MESH Blog - Middle East Strategy at Harvard (MESH) is a project of the National Security Studies Program at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, 7-16-09,

If Obama found Netanyahu difficult to coerce, he failed to

for the Israeli Left to trumpet the Obama agenda.

Congress is explicitly avoiding controversial democracy aid to MENA

Daragahi 9/14 By Borzou Daragahi in Tripoli and Anna Fifield in Washington for FT "US vows to take back seat in Libya rebuilding" www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a04f3b72-deec-11e0-9af3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XzTJnZxx

The US is set to take a low-key role in th

deepening economic malaise at home.

The CP avoids politics and solves the case better---the plan and perm kill US cred by making it look like the US is cow-towing to the new Egyptian government---explicit conditions are key to preventing Israel war

Elman 11 Arik Elman is an Israeli political and PR consultant and commentator "Can Another Arab-Israeli Conflict Be Avoided?" 3/3/2011 www.algemeiner.com/2011/03/03/can-another-arab-israeli-conflict-be-avoided/

Probably the most shocking development

Israeli war, which he will otherwise own completely.

Timeframe and probability---it collapses SQ deterrence and is perception based, which means the threshold for escalation is extremely low---it makes mid-east war far more likely and results in biological warfare

Beres 11 Louis René Beres is a professor of Political Science at Purdue University, an expert on Israeli security matters and the author of 10 major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. "The unforeseen risks of Palestinian statehood" 6/9/11www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-unforeseen-risks-of-palestinian-statehood-1.382766

Why should Israel need a conventional deterrent

East and North Africa, or even in North America, they could exacerbate the already-expected harms of any UN-declared state of Palestine.

Israel will resort to aggressive military campaigns---history proves, and their campaigns will become more violent to shore up its deterrent---it collapses relations and turns case

Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

To restore its image as a dominant

international campaign to delegitimize Israel.

Relations high now but credible US commitment is key to preventing Israeli radicalization---this is the key distinction between relations and perception

Singh 9/27 MICHAEL SINGH is a Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy "Obama and Israel: Hot or cold?" Sept 27  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/27/obama_and_israel_hot_or_cold

Is the Obama administration's relationship

rare point of cooperation, even if implicit, among them and improve the regional political atmosphere.

US yanked all aid that would trigger DAs

Abdel-Baky 8/18/11

al-ahram staff

"With regard to this kind of anti-Americanism

democratic system," Feltman said.

1NC SCAF

The plan triggers a backlash by the SCAF---it’s perceived as interference

Sharp 11 – Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, August 23, 2011, “Egypt in Transition,” online:

Controversy over U.S. Democracy Aid to Egypt

current charged political climate.

That causes them to radicalize their foreign policy and collapses relations

Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO

Yet the United States' capacity

maintaining peace with Israel, an attitude that the United States can do little to change.

Relations high now but backlash crushes overall hegemony, causes Israel war, and prevents Iranian containment---it’s a bigger and faster internal link to the case

WOOD 11 DAVID WOOD Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/

Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne

Egyptian] services will continue.''

Naval power independently solves great power war

Conway et al 7 James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October,

No other disruption is as potentially

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Timeframe and probability---US has just enough influence to keep Israeli peace and access to military ties---this is their schenker evidence---any power change will trigger our impacts

Schenker 9/15 David Schenker is Aufizen fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy “Washington’s Limited Influence in Egypt”September 15 www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html?nopager=1

Notwithstanding devoting more than 30 years

advised to prioritize judiciously.

DA turns case more than the case solves---this card cites their 1AC author---giving credibility to liberal groups won’t solve anything---it’s all about the SCAF

Kurtz 11 Stanley Kurtz is a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center graduated from Haverford College and holds a Ph.D. in social anthropology from Harvard University. "Inside Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood" Sept 6 www.nationalreview.com/corner/276382/inside-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-stanley-kurtz#

Trager wants the United States

revolution itself could not.

SCAF backlash causes an anti-american campaign that destroys US cred and turns case

Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811

Reporting from Washington and Cairo

lower than during the George W. Bush administration, according to a July survey by Zogby International.

That turns terrorism---AQ will capitalize on perception of US hijacking the revolution

Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811

[Card continues from above for context]

Nongovernmental groups are increasingly

usurping the revolution to protect its interests.

It also proves low cred takes out the case but not our DA

Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811

Egypt's reform advocates are split on whether

influence the revolution."

And, military relations key to stabilizing the transition and the economy

Schenker 7/25 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute "Egypt’s Enduring Challenges--Policy Recommendations" July 25 2011 www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=

Given the uncertainties related to

immediate humanitarian and economic assistance for the people of Egypt that exceeds the $250 million appropriated last year.

Egyptian military relations and basing access is key to solving Iran war, preventing Iraqi civil war, Afghanistan presence, and shoring up US conventional deterrence

WOOD 11 DAVID WOOD Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/

But in contingencies or crises, American

And longer missions mean fewer daily sorties.

Afghan instability causes nuke war

Carafano 10 James Jay is a senior research fellow for national security at The Heritage Foundation and directs its Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, “Con: Obama must win fast in Afghanistan or risk new wars across the globe,” Jan 2

We can expect similar results if Obama’s

force incapable of defending the interests of its nations.

Perception of US military weakness from Iraq failure and decline in conventional deterrence causes Israeli strikes, terrorism, Chinese grabs for Taiwan, Russia war, and biological attacks---all escalate and cause extinction

Gardner 7 – Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department of the American University of Paris (Hall, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)

Or, by contrast, should the United States withdraw its forces too precipitously

develop¬ment of "swarming" techniques using rapid speed boats permits lesser states and antistate actors to attack large naval vessels.

Relations key to sustainable transition---turns internal stability

Djerejian 11 Interviewee: Edward P. Djerejian, Director of the James A. Baker III Institute of Public Policy, Rice University, Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org "Assessing U.S. Leadership in Mideast" Sept 22 www.cfr.org/middle-east/assessing-us-leadership-mideast/

The Obama administration has tactically

better path.

Joshua Stacher 10-11, Assistant Professor of Political Science in the Department of Political Science at Kent State University, October 11, 2011, “Blame the SCAF for Egypt's problems,” online:

The SCAF's actions over the

seeking to keep their budget exempt from parliamentary scrutiny, and more. The record is clear.

Case Cards/Kiss of Death

Alt causes – Beijing, Iran, Afghanistan

Karl 10 (David J. Karl is president of the Asia Strategy Initiative, a consultancy based in Los Angeles. He served as project director of the Task Force on Enhancing India-US Cooperation in the Global Innovation Economy, august 31, US-India relations: Problems posed by Afghanistan and Iran

After much criticism for appearing

articulate the next chapter in the bilateral partnership could well spell out its limits.

No impact – Co-op doesn’t spill-over

Haass 8 (Richard, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, jan 2,

The Palmerstonian Moment,

The bad news for the United States is that support

permanent interests.

US Indian relations resilient – high now.

Hindustan Times 10 (Hindustantimes - Indo-Asian News Service, “Visa law will not hurt India ties” August 14, 2010,

The United States hopes that a new law to

President Barack Obama Friday signed the controversial bill into law ignoring Indian and American corporate concerns.

The plan is the kiss of death for everyone it tries to support

Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780

U.S. policymakers understandably want

movements. Like it or not, the United States needs to adopt a low-profile role during these turbulent days.

Egyptian democracy assistance fails

a.      They only appeal to people who are already liberal---they don’t change opinions

Anne Mariel Peters 11 is an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt” February 14, 2011

One of the most enduring critiques

and governance funding can do.

b.      Empirical evidence proves they don’t give cred to democratic groups

Anne Mariel Peters 11 is an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt” February 14, 2011

Most of the debate around these programs

assisted courts with better case management.

c.       Mechanics and bureaucratic implementation

Anne Mariel Peters 11 is an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt” February 14, 2011

Returning to the big picture, the most fundamental

organizations to do their work.

--

Finals vs MSU LR

1NC

Framework---this debate is a question of competing intellectual strategies---the question you should ask yourself is the benefit of endorsing their scholarship---students can be agents of political change

Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p54-

The point is that a broader security…practice when they themselves are theorising about security. Otherwise, they run the risk of constituting ‘threats to the future’ (Kubálková 1998: 193–201).

The Links---

1.     The aff is a strategy to turn the non-west into a hub for American imperialism---epistemologically suspect narratives frame US engagement and result in using Egypt as a strategic chess piece to recruit allies in the construction of the next enemy---inevitable blowback turns the aff

Soumaya Ghannoushi 11 is a researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies. "Obama, hands off our spring" May 26 2011 www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring

The US wants to turn the…preach democracy, while occupying and aiding occupation.

2.     The aff presumes that democratizing nations requires American nurturing to be effective---this naturalizes imperialism and causes a backlash that turns the case

Fred M. Shelley 11 is assistant professor of geography @ University of Oklahoma, "Orientalism, Idealism, and Realism: The United States and the "Arab Spring"" The Arab World Geographer Volume 14, Number 2 / Summer 2011 July 18

Americans following the events in…well as relationships between these governments and the West.

3.     The bifurcation of liberal “non-violent” groups and the brotherhood attempts to eliminate violence from politics---the result is a distorted equivocation of “non-violence” to being consistent with American norms---this causes a legitimization of total war in the name of liberalism

Prozorov 6 – Sergei Prozorov, collegium fellow at the Helsinki Collegium for Advanced Studies, University of Helsinki, Professor of International Relations in the Department of International Relations, Faculty of Politics and Social Sciences, Petrozavodsk State University, Russia, 2006, “Liberal Enmity: The Figure of the Foe in the Political Ontology of Liberalism,” Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 35, No. 1, p. 75-99

The Savage and the Barbarian: Natural Liberty and Supplementary Violence

Schmitt’s prophecy about the infinite plasticity…escape from the murderous ultra-politics of the foe is impossible unless it passes through the stage of an ontological critique of liberalism, hence the present importance of Schmitt.

The impacts---

1.     Their advantages are built from a starting point that presumes the necessity of the plan---this obfuscates the historical US role in the region that taints the aff and turns solvency

Carpenter 11 – Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America. "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little" Feb 11 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780

Though the spectacular events…movements. Like it or not, the United States needs to adopt a low-profile role during these turbulent days.

2.     Mass war and genocide that turn solvency and threaten extinction

Pinar Batur 7, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, “The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7

At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible Turk” was the image that summarized the enemy of Europe and the antagonism toward the hegemony of the Ottoman Empire, stretching from Europe to…global racist ideology with dizzying frequency. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

3.     The affirmative’s claims to how China will act and react to certain policies like the plan depends on a rationalization of China—this flawed positivist epistemology seeks to render all of the international arena knowable and predictable—the result is the inevitable emergence of a ‘China threat’ based on orientalization

Chengxin Pan 4 prof school of international and political studies, Deakin U. PhD in pol sci and IR, “The "China threat" in American self-imagination: the discursive construction of other as power politics,” 1 June 2004,

Having examined how the "China threat" literature…dimension of this discursive strategy in the containment perspectives and hegemonic ambitions of U.S. foreign policy.

4.     Their method turns debate into a catastrophic prediction market---the ballot becomes the currency awarded to the most catastrophic and inevitable impact---we define down the standards for evidence by elevating extinction risks as the central criteria for evaluation---this orients society towards permanent war and evacuates critical public spheres which means the aff becomes anti-political

Greg Elmer and Opel 6, Bell Globemedia Research Chair in the School of Radio TV Arts at Ryerson University, and Andy Opel, assistant professor in the Department of Communication at Florida State University, July-September 2006, Cultural Studies, Vol. 20, No. 4-5, p. 488-490

Throughout the media discourse over…or ethical lapses because the fraud may be our very own.

The alternative---

The ballot should answer the question of the value of the scholarship produced by teams---it should acknowledge that the process by which we form knowledge constitutes us as subjects---in the face of this, you should position yourself as a critical intellectual to rebuild our knowledge of the middle east from the ground up.

1.     American strategic intentions ensure that engagement fails---taking a step back and investigating the discursive security practices of US engagement is key

Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p12-

Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its position…this part of the world.

2.     The history of American strategic engagement is so thoroughly bankrupt that ultimately doing nothing is better than doing something

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB 11 is Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. MARK BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University. "The Black Swan of Cairo: how suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous." Foreign Affairs 90.3 (May-June 2011): p33 Gale

Why is surprise the permanent…regardless of the actual, delayed cost.

Block

The aff’s environmental apocalypticism causes the worst acts violence under the guise of security—turns the case and makes environmental collapse inevitable

Buell 3 [Frederick—cultural critic on the environmental crisis and a Professor of English at Queens College and the author of five books,  From Apocalypse To Way of Life, pages 185-186]

Looked at critically, then, crisis discourse thus suffers

more severe deformations of nature,  temptation increased to refute it, or give up, or even cut off ties to clearly  terminal “nature.”

And, it constructs a patriarchal relationship to nature where the environment must be controlled and domesticated—it advances the ultimate gendered enframing of the world that turns case

Nhanenge 7 [Jytte Masters @ U South Africa, paper submitted in part fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of master of arts in the subject Development Studies, “ECOFEMINSM: TOWARDS INTEGRATING THE CONCERNS OF WOMEN, POOR PEOPLE AND NATURE INTO DEVELOPMENT]

At the end of the organic era, there was uncertainty

society.   (Merchant 1980: 132, 134, 138, 140). 

No impact to warming

Taylor 7/27—senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News (27 July 2011, James, New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism,

NASA satellite data from the years

purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

And, economic threat predictions will cause the US to manipulate regimes in a non-democratic fashion---link turns the whole case and empirically kills millions

Neocleous, Prof of Gov, 8 [Mark Neocleous, Prof. of Government @ Brunel, Critique of Security, p95-]

In other words, the new international

success’ based on ‘political and economic liberty’,  with whole sections devoted to the security benefits of ‘economic  liberty’, and the benefits to liberty of the security strategy proposed.111

Epistemic presuppositions taint their authors’ predictions---you should discount their impacts

Nir Rosen 11, former fellow at the Center on Law and Security at the New York University School of Law, fellow at the New America Foundation, and Distinguished Visitor at The American Academy in Berlin, he is a widely accalimed journalist and writer @ Jadaliyya, he has written extensively on Iraq and Afghanistan, "A Critique of Reporting on the Middle East" May 19 2011 www.jadaliyya.com/pages/contributors/2834

Too often consumers of mainstream

and Washington.

Global conflict can only emerge in a world of unipolarity---hegemony monopolizes all legitimate forms of expression, which requires that suppressed antagonisms use radical tactics to negate the universalization of American norms---this is the root cause of terrorism and threats to global stability

Mouffe 7 Chantal Mouffe, Professor of Political Theory at the Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster, 2007, “Carl Schmitt’s warning on the dangers of a unipolar world,” in The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt, Edited by: Odysseos and Petito, p. 152

I submit that it is high time to acknowledge

the universalist discourse is, in fact, contributing.

This also means if we win a link they don’t solve but we turn the case---if their scholarship is tainted it drives a counter-productive approach to academia that wrecks engagement with the middle east

Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p164-5

Although Beck’s thesis is about the environment

of its emancipatory potential.

Jarvis is a K of post-modernism…

He’s an idiot

Michael J Shapiro 1, Professor of Politial Science at the University of Hawaii. International Studies Association review of Books 2001 p. 126-128

D. S. L. Jarvis's International Relations

uninformed—like the rest of the book.

This Bilgin card is about to wreck their link answers and the permutation

Bilgin 5 Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, p4-

Stephen Walt’s study, The Origins of Alliances (1987) is a good example of how

normative (for some, emancipation-oriented) approach to security in theory and practice.

Their authors misread our scholars---they aren’t writing an essentialist or anti-western diatribe---they’re identifying an inherently essentializing discourse that the aff deploys to describe the middle east---winning their offense to our scholarship requires them also to win “no link”

Macfie 2k Alexander Lyon Macfie is a historian who has written widely on the history of the modern Middle East, “Introduction” in Orientalism: A Reader pp5-6

 What divides Said from many of his critics

theatre of ancient Greece, was radically anti-Foucauldian.

they don’t deny that US manipulation of the region is doomed more often than not and that representations of the regime authorize violence against it

Eagleton 6 Terry Eagleton is Distinguished Professor of English Literature at Lancaster University, “Eastern Block” Feb 13 2006 www.newstatesman.com/200602130032

Edward Said Got Many Things Wrong, But His Central Argument Was Basically Right.

every exception noted, stage one was pretty much true all along.

Indicts of Said don’t apply

Zachary Lockman 4 is professor of modern Middle East history at New York University, PhD Harvard, Behind the Battles Over US Middle East Studies January

Overall, Kramer’s approach is deeply flawed

receptive to critiques of the field’s hitherto dominant paradigms is shallow and tendentious.

We’ll straight turn---voting aff cedes the political---

a.      Bureaucratic role-playing without prior intellectual questioning causes cooption

Shampa Biswas 7 Prof of Politics @ Whitman “Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist” Millennium 36 (1) p. 117-125

The recent resuscitation of the project of Empire should give International Relations scholars particular pause

offering of recipes and solutions, that is about politics (rather than techno-expertise) in the most fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21

b.     security crisis representations pacify resistance and concretize the right

Neocleous 8 Mark Neocleous, Prof. of Government @ Brunel, Critique of Security, p117-

Eliding the distinction between military practice and

cultural  ‘tradition’ would thereby be placed in a different moral universe from  the‘slavery’ of the Communist system.54

Boggs votes neg---the contemporary liberal-democratic state is the overwhelming cause of anti-politics---embracing reformism as usual is the opposite of the revitalized public sphere necessary to prevent global destruction

Carl Boggs, Professor of Social Sciences and Film Studies at National University, Los Angeles, 2000, The End of Politics, p. 275

There can be little doubt

machine veering out of control that levels everything in its path, leaving behind a socially dislocated and atomized mass public bereft of political moorings.

CP – 1NC

The United States Department of State should no longer condition democracy assistance on maintenance of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty but should not increase democracy assistance.

A substantial increase in assistance requires doubling---the CP is a PIC out of that

James P. Grant 79 is Executive Director of UNICEF "Perspectives on Development Aid: World War II to Today and Beyond" The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science

flow of aid resources to the poor majorities in the low income countries.

CP solves the whole case but avoids politics

1NC Israel DA

Israel lobby backlashes to the plan

Jim Lobe 11 is the Washington bureau chief of the Inter Press Service and a contributor to IPS Right Web “Arab Spring Stalls as U.S. Defers to Saudi ‘Counter-revolution’” April 25 rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/arab_spring_stalls_as_us_defers_to_saudi_counter_revolution

Their eagerness to charge Tehran with foreign interference in the Arab world's

normalising ties with Tehran will bolster those who believe that a democratic Egypt may not be such a good investment.

That destroys American credibility and causes Netanyahu to distance himself from the US---causes radicalization and turns case

Farmer 9/25 John Farmer The Star-Ledger "Republican politics in Washington could place Israel at risk" 9/25/11 blog.nj.com/njv_john_farmer/2011/09/republican_politics_in_washing.html

The latest example involves the Obama administration’s

American nor Israeli interests.

That causes Mideast conflict from Israeli self-reliance

Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

More broadly, U.S. indecision and passivity

interests. The consequences could be destabilizing for both Israel and the United States.

That ensures miscalc and triggers biological and nuclear war

Beres 11 Louis René Beres is a professor of Political Science at Purdue University, an expert on Israeli security matters and the author of 10 major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. "The unforeseen risks of Palestinian statehood" 6/9/11www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-unforeseen-risks-of-palestinian-statehood-1.382766

In turn, such self-reliance would demand: (1)

Jerusalem's conventional reprisals might still be met, in the uncertain strategic future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.

Politics

Obama’s fighting hard to convince Congress to allow civilian terror trials – capital’s key to trigger a workable compromise

A.P. 10-5, 2011

Obama, Congress divided over terror suspects, by DONNA CASSATA, Associated Press – Oct 5, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration has tracked down and killed Osama bin Laden, Anwar al-Awlaki and other al-Qaida leaders. Yet, in spite of those successes, Republicans and some Democrats

compromise to deal with the detainee provision problems.

Plan drains capital even if it doesn’t net increase money

L.A. Times 11 Paul Richter, April 12, 2011, “U.S. aid Arabs: Debt worries stymie U.S. aid to Arab nations in transition”,

The Obama administration's efforts to use

building in foreign countries."

Detainee provisions crush US legitimacy and soft power

Hafetz 11 (Jonathan Hafetz, professor at Seton Hall University School of Law, 10/24/11, Don't extend 'war on terrorism,'

More than a decade after Sept. 11, 2001,

fateful first step in that direction.

Soft power’s key to hegemony and solving a laundry list of crises

Stanley, 7 (Elizabeth Stanley, Assistant Professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report,

How important is soft power, anyway? Given its vast

necessary to address such threats effectively.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction---multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7

It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time

East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

SCAF DA

Plan causes SCAF backlash

Martini & Taylor 11 JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO

Yet the United States' capacity to advance

reward for maintaining peace with Israel, an attitude that the United States can do little to change.

That causes middle east war and crushes hegemony

WOOD 11 DAVID WOOD Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/

Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the

Egyptian] services will continue.''

CASE

Realism inevitable and good to solve war

Robert Kaplan 11 senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and author "Libya, Obama and the triumph of realism" Aug 28 www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a76d2ab4-cf2d-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1WPqHMjK3&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Realism is dead, clamour the cheerleaders

– will once again prove to be the only credible belief system for those who, like Mr Obama, seek to wield power.

Deterrence as source of onto-security’s key to acting against aggressive foreign policy

Amir Lupovici 8, Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto, Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse

Since deterrence can become part of the actors’ identity, it is also

expectations of avoiding violence.

Democratic peace + deterrence = solves war

John Moore 4 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace,  44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis

We will start with what we generally

relations ... [when we consider that] democracies have almost never fought each other."

No risk of their heg bad turns---US engagement and reintervention are inevitable---it’s only a question of making it effective---the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns

Robert Kagan 11 is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. "The Price of Power" Jan 24 Vol 16 No18 www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3

In theory, the United States could

power has built and defended.

Focus on epistemology is bad

Owen 2 [David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7]

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that

feeds back into IR exacerbating the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

(Ontology/Epistemology) focus irrelevant—doesn’t affect our ability to make claims about the world—and, it cripples the alt by devolving into reductionism

Hellmann, Prof of Poli Sci, 9 [Gunther Hellmann is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at AICGS and a professor of political science at Goethe University, “Beliefs as Rules for Action: Pragmatism as a Theory of Thought and Action” International Studies Review, Volume 11, Issue 3, Pages 638-662]

While this is not the place for an in-depth analysis of

unhitches" human beings from "a useless structure of bad abstractions about thought" (Menand 1997:xi).

Their (epistemology/ontology) arguments don’t disprove our advantages—pragmatic reasoning and specificity prove our aff is good—the alt devolves into crippling political paralysis

Kratochwil, IR Prof @ Columbia, 8 [Friedrich Kratochwil is Assistant Professor of International Relations at Columbia University, Pragmatism in International Relations “Ten points to ponder about pragmatism” p11-25]

First, a pragmatic approach does not begin

phenomenon under investigation.

Ontological/epistemological questions don’t deny the truth of our advantages

SØRENSEN, Prof of IR, 98  [GEORG SØRENSEN, Professor of International Politics and Economics @ Aarhus Univ. “IR Theory after the cold war” Review of International Studies (1998), 24 : 83-100 Cambridge University Press]

What, then, are the more general problems

project.28

Extinction outweighs ontology

Jonas 96 [Hans, Former Alvin Johnson Prof. Phil. At the New School for Social Research & Former Eric Voegelin Visiting Prof. at U. Munich, *do not agree with gendered language,  Mortality and Morality: A Search for the Good after Auschwitz, pg 111-2

With this look ahead at an

determining what action to take. With this confession of faith we come to the end of our essay ontology.

Israel is moderating their foreign policy vis-à-vis Egypt---SCAF control is crucial

Cook 9/2 Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eatern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations "What Can Israel Do About Tensions With Post-Mubarak Egypt?” Sept 2 www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/what-can-israel-do-about-tensions-with-post-mubarak-egypt/244434/

There is not much Israelis

Israel physically.

Relations high now but credible US commitment is key to preventing Israeli radicalization

Singh 9/27 MICHAEL SINGH is a Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy "Obama and Israel: Hot or cold?" Sept 27  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/27/obama_and_israel_hot_or_cold

Is the Obama administration's relationship

risks for peace; second, to the extent Israel and its neighbors are focused on similar threats, such as Iran and terrorism, our efforts to counter those threats can serve as a rare point of cooperation, even if implicit, among them and improve the regional political atmosphere.

Shocks to the democratic system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves

JOHN HORGAN 9 is Director of the Center for Science at Stevens Institute of Technology, former senior writer at Scientific American, B.A. from Columbia and an M.S. from Columbia “The End of the Age of War,” Dec 7

The economic crisis was supposed

positive. If they continue, who knows? World peace—the dream of countless visionaries and -beauty--pageant -contestants—or something like it may finally come to pass.

Every credible measure of study shows violence is down because of everything consistent with the aff---heg, democracy, liberal trade---it’s only a question of sustaining current dynamics and preventing shocks to the system

Pinker 11 Steven Pinker is Professor of psychology at Harvard University "Violence Vanquished" Sept 24 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html

On the day this article appears,

coincided with the electronic global village.

They’ve also conceded Garzke—trade eliminates rational incentives for conflict

Free trade reduces the likelihood of conflict --- studies prove

Griswold, 7 (Daniel T., Associate director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Trade Policy Studies, Trade, Democracy and Peace: The Virtuous Cycle, Peace through Trade Conference, April 20,

A little-noticed headline on an Associated

greater the likelihood of peace. 

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang & Shi 11 – Yuhan Zhang, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Lin Shi, Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and consultant for the World Bank, January 22, 2011, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” East Asia Forum, online:

Over the past two decades, no

devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Trade eliminates the only rational incentives for war

Gartzke 11 Erik Gartzke is an associate Professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF "SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD" www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/

Almost as informative as the decline in warfare has

that war becomes a durable anachronism.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen 11 John M. Owen Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/

Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the Human Security

material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.

--

Obama’s fighting hard to convince Congress to allow civilian terror trials – capital’s key to trigger a workable compromise

A.P. 10-5, 2011

Obama, Congress divided over terror suspects, by DONNA CASSATA, Associated Press – Oct 5, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration has tracked down and killed Osama bin Laden, Anwar al-Awlaki and other al-Qaida leaders. Yet, in spite of those successes, Republicans and some Democrats

compromise to deal with the detainee provision problems.

Plan drains capital even if it doesn’t net increase money

L.A. Times 11 Paul Richter, April 12, 2011, “U.S. aid Arabs: Debt worries stymie U.S. aid to Arab nations in transition”,

The Obama administration's efforts to use

building in foreign countries."

Detainee provisions crush US legitimacy and soft power

Hafetz 11 (Jonathan Hafetz, professor at Seton Hall University School of Law, 10/24/11, Don't extend 'war on terrorism,'

More than a decade after Sept. 11, 2001,

fateful first step in that direction.

Soft power’s key to hegemony and solving a laundry list of crises

Stanley, 7 (Elizabeth Stanley, Assistant Professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report,

How important is soft power, anyway? Given its vast

necessary to address such threats effectively.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction---multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7

It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time

East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

--

Asia DA

Obama focused on committing capital to Asian summit---the plan forces a tradeoff---impact is the global economy, heg, and preventing Chinese expansionism that causes Asian war

Bower 10/27 Ernest Z. Bower is Senior Adviser and Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies "Why November Matters for Obama" Oct 27 2011 the-diplomat.com/2011/10/27/why-november-matters-for-obama/2/

The poisonous atmosphere in Washington will put pressure on Barack Obama to cut short his

scenario, but one that would threaten stability in the Asia-Pacific.

Plan’s tradeoff causes nuke war

Colby 11 – Elbridge Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, August 10, 2011, “Why the U.S. Needs its Liberal Empire,” The Diplomat, online:

But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed to swing too far toward an incautious retrenchment. For our problem hasn’t been

expenditure on those challenges and regions that don’t touch so directly on the future of US security and prosperity.

== 1NC OFF CASE: Israel DA, Asia Meeting Focus DA, Imperialism K, Condition CP == == 1NC == (% class="MsoNormal" %) The United States federal government should offer substantial technical training for political organization in Egypt through official Egyptian channels if === and only if recipients agree to cooperate with the United States on counter-terrorism initiatives and agree to work with the United States on relevant issues related to Egyptian-Israeli peace === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Plan triggers politics but CP avoids it === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Mowbray 11(%%) Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "MOWBRAY: Deceit on the Nile" June 2 www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/2/deceit-on-the-nile/?page=all (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)For the first time in a generation, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Egypt(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) is in strategic play. It (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)could either .…………(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) panel, (%%)//supports Egyptian (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)aid//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)but stresses that it (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)must be contingent on “our (% class="Box" %)national (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)interests(%%)// [being] addressed properly//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %).” (% class="MsoNormal" %) === They say yes empirically~-~--and, conditioning all assistance is key so the perm doesn’t solve === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Mowbray 11(%%) Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "MOWBRAY: Deceit on the Nile" June 2 www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/2/deceit-on-the-nile/?page=all (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Congress has been down this road before.(% style="font-size: 7pt;" %) For the first couple …………(%%)// keep Egypt in the U.S. orbit//. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === And, ONLY the CP solves the case~-~--they’ll pocket the plan and perm without changing their foreign policy === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Mowbray 11(%%) Joel Mowbray is an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "MOWBRAY: Deceit on the Nile" June 2 www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/2/deceit-on-the-nile/?page=all (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)One idea(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) being discussed (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)is ensuring(%%) that Egypt ………… that (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Congress won’t let Egypt slip away without a fight. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Religious Freedom Adv == === 1. Their Farr evidence describes HR 1856, which would amend the IFRA to enhance overall US policy on the promotion of religious freedom. That resolution hasn’t passed. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Govtrack 11(%%) (H.R. 1856: International Religious Freedom Act Amendments of 2011, http:~/~/www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1856) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)112th Congress: 2011-2012 (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)To amend the(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)I(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)nternational (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)R(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)eligious (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)F(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)reedom (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)A(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)ct of ……….(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) them before they go to general debate. (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)**The majority**(%%)** of bills and resolutions (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)never make it out of committee(%%)**.(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) [Last Updated: Aug 10, 2011 6:11AM] (% class="MsoNormal" %) === AND – that guarantees the aff doesn’t solve – lack of status, staff, and funding ensure the State Department can’t effectively promote religious freedom. [MSU 1AC author] === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Farr 11(%%) (Thomas F., Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Fortunately (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)amendments(%%) in HR 1856 (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)address(%%) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)these three (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)critical (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)………….** t**(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)oluntary. Moreover, it did not focus on US international religious freedom policy so much as it did the idea of "religious engagement." The two are of course related but they are not the same thing. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Sri Lanka impact is ludicrous—Hogg evidence says that political devolution due to bad state composition causes war— === === === === === === Turkish leadership can’t affect the Middle East === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Cook 11(%%)—fellow for Mid-Eastern studies at the CFR. PhD from UPenn (5 May 2011, Steven, Arab Spring, Turkish Fall, http:~/~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/05/arab_spring_turkish_fall?page=0,0) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The Arab uprisings seemed tailor-made for the "new Turkey" ………….(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the Turks look (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)timorous, maladroit, and (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)diminished ~-~- not at all the regional leader to which Ankara has aspired. === === === === === (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)**No war in Indo Pak**(%%) === (% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Turkish Weekly 6/28(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) (28 July 2011, India and Pakistan Pledge 'New Spirit of Cooperation', http:~/~/www.turkishweekly.net/news/120330/india-and-pakistan-pledge-39-new-spirit-of-cooperation-39-.html) (% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 6pt;" %)The(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) foreign ministers of (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)India and Pakistan(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) have (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)called for(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) a new spirit ………….. in an attempt (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)to find ways to (%%)build trust and (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)promote peace(%%). (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Last month, the foreign secretaries of (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the two(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) countries held two days of talks where they (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)agreed to(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) discuss new (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)nuclear c(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)onfidence-(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)b(%%)uilding (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)m(%%)easure(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)s(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Multiple factors prove === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Mutti 9(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)— Master’s degree in International Studies with a focus on South Asia, U Washington. BA in History, Knox College. over a decade of expertise covering on South Asia geopolitics, Contributing Editor to Demockracy journal (James, 1/5, Mumbai Misperceptions: War is Not Imminent, http:~/~/demockracy.com/four-reasons-why-the-mumbai-attacks-wont-result-in-a-nuclear-war/, AG) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Fearful of imminent war, the media has indulged in frantic hand wringing about Indian and Pakistani nuclear ………. how they respond to the terrible events, it also means that they will feel international pressure to resolve the situation without resorting to war. India and Pakistan have been warned by the US, Russia, and others not to let the situation end in war. India has been actively recruiting Pakistan’s closest allies – China and Saudi Arabia – to pressure Pakistan to act against militants, and the US has been in the forefront of pressing Pakistan for action. Iran too has expressed solidarity with India in the face of the attacks and is using its regional influence to bring more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. === === = SCAF Adv = === the U.S. is preserving relations through a hands-off approach === (% class="MsoNormal" %) David D. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kirkpatrick 10-14(%%) is a correspondent in the Washington bureau of The New York Times "Egypt’s Military Expands Power, Raising Alarms" Oct 14 www.nytimes.com/2011/10/15/world/middleeast/egypts-military-expands-power-raising-alarms.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=print (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Egypt’s(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) military (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)rulers are moving to(%%) //assert and (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)extend their (%%)own (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)……… bring unfriendly Islamists to power and(%%) further (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)strain relations with Israel//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %), (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)has(%%) so far (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)signaled approval of the military(% class="Box" %)’s slower approach(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) to handing over authority(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). In an appearance this week with the Egyptian foreign minister, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged an early end to the emergency law but called the plan for elections “an appropriate timetable.” === === === “Aid now” is irrelevant~-~--the U.S. __backed off__ from plans to fund NGOs directly~-~--that’s all that matters for the link === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)De Los Reyes 8/16(%%)/11(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) As a senior staff writer, Che focuses on international development breaking news coverage as well as interviews and features. Prior to joining Devex, Che handled communications for local and international development NGOs and government institutions in the Philippines. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)http:~/~/www.devex.com/en/blogs/development-assistance-under-obama/in-egypt-compromise-on-us-funds-for-ngos-raises-fears-of-government-control-2 (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)After months of standing its ground on its decision to channel ………….,(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) which has been simmering for months. (%%)In May, the (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Egypt(%%)ian government has (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)rejected(% class="Box" %) an (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)aid(%%) package(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) being (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)offered by the U.S(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %).(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) The country, however, has been accepting assitance from other countries and institutions, such as loans from the World Bank and the African Development Bank. The German government has also cancelled some €240 million ($344 million) in debt for Egypt’s development. === === === No Iranian aggression === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kaye 10(%%)—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Nora Bensahel—adjunct prof of IR at Georgetown. PhD in pol sci from Stanford—AND—Jerrold D. Green—research professor, USC. PhD in pol sci from U Chicago—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton (Dalia Dassa, Dangerous But Not Omnipotent, Report by RAND for the Airforce and DOD, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Guided by these observations, this study aims to prepare the USAF leadership and the U.S. defense community ………. of nuclear-armed states, and U.S. strategies for dealing with a post-nuclear Iran. 11 Based on a thorough examination of these sources, (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//we present an//(%%)// (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)empiricall(%%)y rooted (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)analysis//(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) to inform U.S. decisionmakers who need to anticipate patterns and variations in Iranian behavior. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Israel won’t be aggressive~-~--multiple constraints === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ravid 8/23(%%)—diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz newspaper (Barak, Netanyahu tells cabinet, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)The cabinet voted(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) Monday (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)to refrain from any action that could lead to(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) an …………orces (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)do not yet have enough Iron Dome batteries to defend the home front. (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)"If we had even one more battery, we could defend another medium-sized city," (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)one aide said(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %). "That's precisely why (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//we need to prepare instead of rushing into war."// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No escalation to Iraq conflict ~-~-- major powers will __prevent__ civil war === (% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Hadar 7/1(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)—former prof of IR at American U and Mount Vernon-College. PhD in IR from American U (1 July 2011, Leon, Saving U.S. Mideast Policy, http:~/~/nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Indeed, contrary to the warning proponents of U.S. military intervention typically express, the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)withdrawal(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) of ……………, together with (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Saudi Arabia and Iran(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %), has (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)played a critical role toward forming a government (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)in Baghdad (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)that recognizes (%%)the interests of (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No escalation to Israel/Palestine~-~--other countries don’t care === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Satloff 11(%%)—executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. PhD from Oxford (Robert, Obama's Delicate Middle East Pivot, 19 May 2011, http:~/~/www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/05/19/obamas_delicate_mideast_pivot_99524.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)The reality is that (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the "Palestine issue(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %),"(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) as it is widely called, may be an emotive topic for many …………..(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) the Syrian and Lebanese borders more as desperate stunts in the Asad regime's shrinking arsenal than as manifestations of some new Palestinian strategy to challenge Israel. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Israel/Palestine conflict __inevitable__ ~-~-- __zero chance__ of their internal link solving === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Coleman 7/1(%%)—PhD. Prof at Columbia; Director of the International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution (1 July 201~,~, Peter, The Mathematics of Middle East Conflict and Peace, http:~/~/www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-t-coleman-phd/the-mathematics-of-middle_b_887723.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Israel's (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)mired peace talks(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %),(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) expanding (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)settlements and renewed ………………, and the resulting closed, non-adaptive, self-organizing system(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %). In other words, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)**we are confronted with an intractable conflict attractor.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Solvency = === The plan undermines the Egyptian democratic opposition~-~--inspires __Egyptian nationalism__~-~--__recent changes__ in public opinion mean their defense doesn’t apply === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Mai (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Choucri 11(%%), Project Coordinator at the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, Researcher at the Social Research Centre at The American University in Cairo, September 2011, “Egypt's civil society organisations: Between a rock and a hard place,” online: http:~/~/www.palestine.rosalux.org/publication/37815/egypts-civil-society-organisations-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place.html (% class="cardtext" %) In an article of 14 August 2011, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)an Egyptian journalist (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)…………… (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)foundation for an effective struggle for freedom(%%) and independence. (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="cardtext" %) === Perception of U.S. meddling drives an alliance between the SCAF and the Islamists __against__ liberal parties === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Mohamed (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Abdelbaky 11(%%), Egyptian democracy and human rights researcher/journalist, August 25, 2011, “The Crisis of External Funding of Egyptian Civil Society,” online: (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The real surprise was not(%%) so much (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the position taken by the ………(%%) tailored conditions for Gamal Mubarak, son of the former president, with a view to paving a smooth succession of power to him. (% class="cardtext" %) === It’s unique~-~--liberal parties are holding on now but a successful smear campaign by an Islamist-SCAF alliance destroys them === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Andrea (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Teti 11(%%), Lecturer in Strategic Studies, University of Aberdeen and Senior Fellow, European Centre for International Affairs, October 2011, “Political Parties and Movements in Post-Revolutionary Egypt,” online: http:~/~/www.ispionline.it/it/documents/WP42_2011ok.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) The overall picture of (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Egyptian politics is likely to …………(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)// influence on Egyptian politics//(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Liberal groups are effective now but the plan causes __over-funding__ and __donor-driven agendas__ which crush them === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Amira (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Maaty 11(%%), Program Officer on the MENA Team of the National Endowment for Democracy, April 29, 2011, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization,” online: http:~/~/www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/ (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Egypt’s civil society(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)overcame the (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Mubarak(%%) regime’s ………(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) //encumber NGOs//(%%)// lacking capacity// (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)and(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) (% class="Box" %)stifle the most (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)innovative and creative groups(%%). (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC === The condition has to be explicit to avoid politics~-~--and, it has to be on all forms of engagement from aid to trade === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Axelrod 11(%%) Matthew Craig Axelrod The Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania A RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Master of Arts April 2011 Faculty Advisor: Dr. John Neiva “Aid as Leverage? Understanding the U.S.-Egypt Military Relationship” http:~/~/lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/pages/pdf/Axelrod.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Democracy advocates who challenged military assistance on ……..(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) elections, a genuine drive against corruption and the lifting of continued restrictions on freedom of expression.""3 (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Ana Carolina (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Garriga 11(%%), Professor of Political Studies at the Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico), and Brian J. Phillips, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh, June 2011, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies,” online: http:~/~/www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)These characteristics of post-conflict countries suggest that information provision should be especially valuable. In brief, before investing in these countries, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)firms look at a variety of data sources(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). Given the heightened need for financing, sources affiliated with the ……….(% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) by geostrategic reasons(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)and therefore (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)we expect it to have(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//different effects//(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)than aid provided by other states(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). === === (% class="tag" %) The US dominates global clean tech~-~--mass expansion coming now (% class="MsoNormal" %) Teryn (% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Norris & Shenai 10(%%) is a leading young policy strategist and serves as president and founder of Americans for Energy Leadership. He studies public policy at Stanford University. Neil K. Shenai is a PhD Candidate at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) studying the political economy of financial crises., Dynamic Balances: American Power in the Age of Innovation, SAIS Review, Volume 30, Number 2, Summer-Fall 2010, pp. 149-164 (Article) leadenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/SAISReview-AmericanPower-NorrisShenai-Nov2010.pdf (% class="card" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Case Study: Clean Energy Technology Innovation (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" lang="X-NONE" %)Clean energy technology provides a useful case study for (% class="underline" %)………..(% lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 8pt;" %) Massachusetts ($356 million in twenty-seven deals) and Texas ($170 million in nineteen deals). (% class="MsoNormal" %) === === === The perm links~-~--inclusion of the plan overwhelms the CP’s signal~-~--results in zero net FDI === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Ana Carolina (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Garriga 11(%%), Professor of Political Studies at the Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico), and Brian J. Phillips, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh, June 2011, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies,” online: http:~/~/www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) In models 6 to 10, we divide aid into non-U.S. and U.S. aid. …..(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) predictor of FDI in developing countries(%%): a one standard deviation-increase in Market size is associated with only a .44 percentage point increase in FDI/GDP. === Conditioning aid is popular, they empirically say yes, and Obama also won’t push it so doesn’t cost capital === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Axelrod 11(%%) Matthew Craig Axelrod The Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania A RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Master of Arts April 2011 Faculty Advisor: Dr. John Neiva “Aid as Leverage? Understanding the U.S.-Egypt Military Relationship” http:~/~/lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/pages/pdf/Axelrod.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)In 2007, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Congressional appropriators coalesced into an ad-…….(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) to reduce funding, but (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//the Administration defended the status quo.// (% class="MsoNormal" %) === The CP avoids politics and solves the case better~-~--the plan and perm kill US cred by making it look like the US is cow-towing to the new Egyptian government~-~--explicit conditions are key to preventing Israel war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Elman 11(%%) Arik Elman is an Israeli political and PR consultant and commentator "Can Another Arab-Israeli Conflict Be Avoided?" 3/3/2011 www.algemeiner.com/2011/03/03/can-another-arab-israeli-conflict-be-avoided/ (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Probably (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the most shocking development(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) following the Egyptian ………(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) stage, (%%)//t(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)he better are the odds of avoiding another, devastating(%%), bloody and utterly pointless (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Arab-Israeli war//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), which he will otherwise own completely. == Solves Cred/Say Yes == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Byman 11(%%) Daniel is a (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Prof(%%)essor in the security studies program (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)at Georgetown(%%) University and the research director of the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution "Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?" Feb 4 2011 blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/02/04/egypt-2012-what-if-the-muslim-brotherhood-comes-to-power/ (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)But (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the Brotherhood(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) also (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)has (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//behaved peacefully//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %). In Jordan it …………(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) would strengthen the hard-liners within the Brotherhood, proving to its members that the world rejects anything that smacks of Islam and encouraging them to adopt even more radical policies. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === The plan is predicated on mollifying which is only reactive to their degree of pragmatism~-~--the CP is a policy of carrots and sticks that solves better === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Wickham 11(%%) Carrie Rosefsky Wickham is associate professor of political science at Emory University “The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak” Feb 3 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67348/carrie-rosefsky-wickham/the-muslim-brotherhood-after-mubarak?page=show (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)The Brotherhood(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) has (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)demonstrated(%%) that (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)it is capable of (%%)………(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (if not rhetoric) and a strong base of support, the Muslim Brotherhood has earned a place at the table in the post-Mubarak era. No democratic transition can succeed without it. === The US has incredible leverage over the SCAF and they will retain the final say over Egyptian foreign policy === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Rosen 11(%%) Armin Rosen The New Republic “Cairo Dispatch: Can Egypt’s Liberals Challenge the Military’s Hegemony?” Aug 15 (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)IF EGYPTIAN LIBERALS (%%)//can’t do much to influence the ……….//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) words, Egypt will find itself in a place similar to where it was before January 25: beholden to the self-interest of those in power. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Any reason why aid isn’t leverage just proves SCAF backlash, but the explicit condition of the CP makes generals concerned about their __image__, which solves the case and means they say yes because they fear __losing legitimacy__ === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Martini & Taylor 11(%%) JEFF MARTINI is a Project Associate at the RAND Corporation. AND JULIE TAYLOR is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Commanding Democracy in Egypt” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90, Issue 5 EBSCO (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)That said, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the U(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)nited States (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)can(%%) still promote democratization in …..(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) really set itself apart as sort of a paragon of professionalism during the events of Tahrir Square . . . and it is incumbent on them now to carry that spirit forward in a transparent manner to adhere to rule of law." This subdued response was a missed opportunity. === === === The CP important for policy-making and academic debates === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ranaweera 3(%%) Thilak Ranaweera is a consultant at the World Bank "Foreign Aid, Conditionality and Ghost of the Financing Gap: A Forgotten Aspect ofthe Aid Debate" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3019, April 2003 www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2003/09/06/000094946_03042204042890/additional/111511322_20041117164524.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)The(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) World Bank (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)publication(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) “Assessing Aid: What Works, ……….), Hansen and Tarp (2000), Lensink and White (2000). (% class="MsoNormal" %) === And, it’s a core debate in the literature === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)McCoskey 9(%%) Suzanne McCoskey is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics @ GWU, and the Coordinator of the Globalization, Economics, and Business Women’s Leadership Program, "NGOs in the Aid Community: Do Funding Source or Economic Conditioning Matter to Decisions of Country or Activity Involvement?" Feb 23 2009 sites.tufts.edu/jha/archives/381 (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The rise of NGOs has occurred simultaneous to, and was ……… progress, and top down donor self motives. While economic and political goals can benefit target countries and their populations, it can also be used to further integrate countries into the world economic and political system, a goal often of great interest to donor countries. === === === Doing the CP is impossible~-~--it applies the condition on a __future government__ that isn’t in power yet~-~--topical action has to be immediate === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Summers 94(%%) - Justice, Supreme Court of Oklahoma, 11-8-1994, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant,” online: http:~/~/www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.2in 0.0001pt;" %) (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)The(% class="underline" %) legal (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)question(%%) to be resolved by the court (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)is whether (% class="underline" %)………..(% style="font-size: 7pt;" %) formalism now so thoroughly condemned in national jurisprudence and long abandoned by the statutory policy of this State. (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.2in 0.0001pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === Democracy assistance can’t be conditioned on external quos~-~--the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)**exclusive**(%%) aim has to be democratization === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Richard (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Lappin 10(%%) is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)**On the positive side**, there is(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) the implicit instrument of (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)……… for themselves’(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (Carothers 2007b: 22). (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Democracy assistance is(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) therefore (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)**a very precise instrument**(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) within a broader democracy promotion paradigm. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === High threshold for their thumpers~-~--rhetoric v reality === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Norris 11(%%) John Norris is the executive director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center for American Progress "No Easy Fix for U.S. Foreign Aid" Sept 23 2011 (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Rhetoric versus Reality (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Since taking office, (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)both(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//Obama//(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)and(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) Secretary of State Hillary (%%)//……….//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) the diplomatic corps is notorious for wanting to use aid dollars to curry short-term favor and influence with host countries, rather than focusing on long-haul development efforts. (% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) === Outweighs on timeframe~-~--it’s perception based and overwhelms resiliency === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Feller 11/11(%%) BEN FELLER The Associated Press "Eye on home, Obama heads for Asia-Pacific summit" Nov 11 www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/eye-on-home-obama-1222574.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The White House hopes (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the world will see Obama's trip as a (% class="Box" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)…………(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) trip would be (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)seen as a (% class="Box" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)slap to Asian allies(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), (%%)//and the Australian leg has //(% class="Box" %)already been postponed twice(%%)// because of //(% class="Box" %)higher-ranking domestic concerns(%%)// for Obama.// === === === U.S. heg in Asia prevents a massive great power nuclear war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Walton 7(%%) – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49 (% class="card" %) (% lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 7pt;" %)Obviously, (% lang="X-NONE" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__it is of vital importance__(% lang="X-NONE" %)__ to the U__(% lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 7pt;" %)nited (% lang="X-NONE" %)__S__(% lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 7pt;" %)tates (%%)__………..__(% lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 7pt;" %) marked by close great power alliances. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~"Segoe Print~";" %) === Key to US green tech expansion === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Palmer 10/26(%%) Doug "U.S. eyes "green growth" trade deal at APEC" www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/27/us-usa-apec-trade-idUSTRE79P8I220111027 (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The U(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)nited (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)S(%%)tates (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//hopes to persuade China//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) and other Asia-Pacific ……….(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) Partnership(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) with eight other APEC members ~-~- Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~"Segoe Print~";" %) === Suppercommitte is AFTER the summit === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)VOA 11/9(%%) Dan Robinson "Obama Asia-Pacific Trip Part of US 'Refocus' on Region" www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Asia-Pacific-Trip-Part-of-US-Refocus-on-Region-133572823.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)"What a lot of the members of the East Asia summit will want is for us ……. during a time of tight federal budgets. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) ~*~**Also in generic AT: thumpers === And, he’s completely not involved === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Reuters 11/4(%%) Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour, www.waynebrownministries.com/b2evolution/blogs/blog6.php/budget-battles-to-shadow-obama (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)White House officials are(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) also (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)expected to //engage ……….//(% class="Box" %) removed himself this time around(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)," said Brendan Buck, a spokesman for Republican House Speaker John Boehner. === === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Brown 11/11(%%) Carrie Budoff Brown Politico Writer "Obama spurns Congress for overseas" dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=6DC0643C-28DE-43C7-8423-79902470E3C9 (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)President Barack (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Obama left on a nine-day trip(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) Friday (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)just …..(%%), director of the Center for Northeast Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. === Asia trip is underway~-~--domestic pressure will cause him to cut it === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Clark 11/10(%%) Lesley Clark McClatchy Newspapers "Obama's trip aims to bolster Asia-Pacific ties" Nov 10 www.sacbee.com/2011/11/10/4043523/obamas-trip-aims-to-bolster-asia.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)President Barack (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Obama will leave Friday(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) on a(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) nine-……… when he is abroad and that the trip is aimed at ensuring that the United States "remains the pre-eminent economic and security power in the Asia-Pacific." (% class="cardtext" %) "(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Increasingly the center of gravity in the 21st century is going to make Asia-Pacific critical to all of our interests," Rhodes said. "If you want America to be a world leader in this century, that leadership is going to have to include the Asia-Pacific." (% class="cardtext" %) === Everything is playing out~-~--but, healthcare empirically proves he’ll cut the trip~-~--thumpers also don’t apply because it’s only about the next week~-~--the trip is about jobs and the budget is after he returns === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Washington Post 11/9(%%) "White House emphasizes US jobs as Obama prepares to visit Asia" www.washingtonpost.com/business/white-house-emphasizes-us-jobs-as-obama-prepares-to-visit-asia/2011/11/09/gIQAYPzn5M_story.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)President Barack (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Obama is about to embark on a(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) nine-day ….. trade with burgeoning Asia will pay economic dividends back home(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) as Obama seeks to make good on plans to double U.S. exports. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === The deal is key to boosting US military presence in Australia~-~--that’s key to power projection~-~--the visit is key === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Washington Post 11/9(%%) "White House emphasizes US jobs as Obama prepares to visit Asia" www.washingtonpost.com/business/white-house-emphasizes-us-jobs-as-obama-prepares-to-visit-asia/2011/11/09/gIQAYPzn5M_story.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)“(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)American people want to know(%%) that (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)the U(%%)nited (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)S(%%)tates (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)is (%%)…… geographic location (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)is(%%) becoming (% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)increasingly important to the U.S.” (% class="MsoNormal" %) === That’s a massive internal link to overall alliance commitments and preventing Chinese expansionism~-~--solves heg collapse and Asian wars === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Meckler 11/10(%%) Laura Meckler is a staff reporter for The Wall Street Journal "U.S. to Build Up Military in Australia" Nov 10 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203537304577028490161890480.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)President Barack (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Obama will announce(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) an accord for a (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)new(%%) ….// presence is still strong//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) in the 21st century as China develops its force," said Ernie Bower, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. == Impact~-~--Economic Model~-~--2NC == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Asian summit is key to the US economic model (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Quinn(%%) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)& Mohammed 11/7(%%) Andrew Quinn & Arshad Mohammed, Writers @ Reuters, "U.S. seeks to manage global economic shift to China" www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/07/us-washington-summit-china-idUSTRE7A655G20111107 (% class="cardtext" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The United States must develop new transpacific trade and ………..(%%)// around the world//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~-~- whether it's wise for other countries to adopt it is another matter," Hormats said. "(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)When you realize you're competing against the country in the world with the deepest pockets it may not be such an attractive model(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)." (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === US economic model gets to (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)**every impact**(%%)~-~-~-~-trade, heg, and warming~-~--it’s also the only internal link to the economy because it’s key to global __resiliency__ === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Posen 9(%%) Adam, deputy director and senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics “Economic leadership beyond the crisis,” http:~/~/clients.squareeye.com/uploads/foresight/documents/PN%20USA_FINAL_LR_1.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)If this assessment is correct, the policy challenge is to deal with relative …………….(%%)__ and demographic shifts__(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). If the US is to rise to the challenge, it should concentrate on the following priority measures(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Impact~-~--China~-~--2NC == === Chinese rise to unchallenged Asian hegemony causes massive great-power nuke war~-~--that’s Walton above === (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Risk is high and it happens fast~-~--focusing resources on Asia’s necessary to prevent inevitable defense cuts from devastating U.S. leadership~-~--regional states are looking to the U.S. for leadership~-~--blinking causes Chinese rise === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Friedberg 11(%%) – Aaron Friedberg, Professor at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Government, August 23, 2011, “America’s Real China Threat,” online: http:~/~/www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/23/america-s-china-threat-u-s-must-retain-asia-pacific-clout-despite-debt-woes.print.html (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 5pt;" %)As I describe in my new book A Contest for Supremacy: China, America and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, since …………..(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)-time (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)friends will(% style="font-size: 5pt;" %) have to (%%)//consider (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)appeas(%%)ing (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)their(%%) increasingly powerful (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)neighbor//(% style="font-size: 5pt;" %). (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 5pt;" %)Preserving America’s leading role in the world’s most dynamic region is one more reason to get on with the business of putting our house in order. (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 7pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 10pt; line-height: 115%;" %) (% style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: Calibri;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NR CARDS === Obama would get involved in democracy assistance~-~--it’s the only way initiatives would pass~-~--their thumpers just prove they won’t and their ev isn’t about DA === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Carothers 9 (%%)is vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and and has written extensively on democratic issues "Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance" www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)In any event, the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Obama(%%) administration (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)has so far not signaled an ………….(% style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)** interests**(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)** in **(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in;" %)**many quarters**(% style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in;" %)**.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) === The transfer of funds will still drain capital even if there’s no legislation === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Nathan (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Guttman 11(%%) Jewish Daily "Congress Wielding Foreign Aid Budget in Effort to Influence Shape of New Middle East" May 27 www.forward.com/articles/137826/ (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//Congress’s //(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in;" %)//power of the purse//(% class="MsoIntenseEmphasis" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) is(% class="MsoIntenseEmphasis" %) emerging as a (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//key//(%%)// factor ……….//(% class="MsoIntenseEmphasis" %) aid (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)to meet urgent needs such as housing. (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="cardtext" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)

Neg: NU BK

Round # 7 Tournament:

Vs Team: Loyola EM

Judge: Jacob Polin

Off Case Args:

Economic Rationality Good 

Framework 

Case Args:

Hermeutics Not So bad 

Block Strategy:

Econ K 

Framework 

2nr Strategy:

Econ K  Northwestern BK Neg  Round # 4  Vs Team: Wake BC  Judge: Andrew Baker 

 Case Args: 

 Backlash DA 

 Defense 

 Off Case Args: 

 EU Economic Forum CP 

 EU Soft Power DA 

 Corporate Tax Reform Politics DA 

 Orientalism K 

 Block Strategy: 

 Orientalism 

 EU CP/DA 

 Case 

 2nr Strategy: 

 Orientalism

1NC

First—the Econ K—

You should position yourself as an economist to explain the phenomenon of suicide terrorism-the aff’s claim to unknowability of the suicide bomber closes off the possibility of economic investigation to explain and respond to terrorism’s legitimate political grievances-only economics resolves presumptions of irrationality that cause violent political responses

Harrison 6 Mark Harrison is a professor of economics at the University of Warwick and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University &#34;An Economist Looks at Suicide Terrorism&#34; World Economics 7:4 (2006), pp. 1-15 Sept 13 2006 www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/harrison/public/we06postprint.pdf  Suicide terrorism has an economic aspect. …………………. is the outcome of a transaction between two parties, a militant faction and the young volunteer. I will explore the problem of the credibility of the resulting contract and describe how it is achieved. Finally I will draw some implications for countering suicide terrorist threats, but no magic solution will present itself.  

The impact is global wars

Mouffe 7 Chantal Mouffe, Professor of Political Theory at the Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster, 2007, “Carl Schmitt’s warning on the dangers of a unipolar world,” in The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt, Edited by: Odysseos and Petito, p. 152  I submit that it is high time to acknowledge ……….. ‘clash of civilizations’ announced by Huntington (1996) and to which, despite its intentions, the universalist discourse is, in fact, contributing. 

Only economic investigation breaks the cycle of violence-political grievances like the Israeli-Palestine dispute can be resolved but only if actors understand suicide terrorism as a product of explicit political choices 

Foldvary 4 Fred E. Foldvary is a lecturer in economics at Santa Clara University, California, and a research fellow at The Independent Institute &#34;The Economics of Suicide Bombing&#34; www.progress.org/2004/fold353.htm  Can we apply economic theory to suicide bombers? …………… demand, then we gain a better understanding of how to change bad outcomes.   

Rationality is good and argumentation should start from empirical and political problem-solving - any alt fails and devolves into crippling relativism - all their arguments will become offense for us

 Robert C. Rowland 1995 is a Professor of Communication at the University of Kansas, “In Defense of Rational Argument: A Pragmatic Justification of Argumentation Theory and Response to the Postmodern Critique” Philosophy &#38; Rhetoric Vol. 28, No. 4Oct 1, 1995, EBSCO  A pragmatic theory of argument  The first step in developing a justifiable theory of ……….. of rationality that can be used to protect society from the nihilistic excesses of a purely instrumental reason. 

2NC

a. We don’t have to win that economics explains every or *even any* aspect of suicide terrorism, only that it is a useful heuristic when formulating solutions in face of violence

Caplan 6 Bryan Caplan is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University &#34;Terrorism: The relevance of the rational choice model&#34; Public Choice (2006) 128:91-107  4. Conclusion  To discard the rational choice model because of a …….. throwing out rational choice models and starting anew. 

RCT eschews meaning based explanations in favor of a model of economic effect—it does not evaluate mental states as much as it presumes that they happen, and then evaluates the economy of effects. 

Kopl and Whitman, economics, Farliegh Dickinson and CSUN, 2004 (Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, www.csun.edu/dgw61315/RCHfinal.pdf) 

The first typical difference between hermeneutics ………… as agents act as if those mental states actually occurred. To the hermeneutic analyst, the actual mental state of the actor is primary; to the rational choice theorist, the actual mental state of the actor is secondary to the construction of a model with testable predictions. 

 Our alt seeks a rational choice framework as a mode of conceptualizing the suicide terrorist and its effects, as opposed to their implicit call for “understanding” the singularity of the event. This argument also proves that their calls for what you should do with, think about, or employ an ethic of singularity internal link turn their case by secretly avowing a conception of meaning. 

Von Mises, Founder of the Austrian School, 2003 (Ludwig, Epistemological Problems of Economics, 140-2) 

Today, when understanding is discussed in ……. only the sharp imprint of the concept ensures unequivocalness; it is to a concept alone that words can be made to fit precisely. 

In this respect, understanding suffers from the same insufficiency as all other efforts—artistic, metaphysical, or mystical—to reproduce the intuition of a whole. 

Hermeneutics

Their approach to hermeneutics collapses into relativism-that eviscerates political deliberation and causes ideological fill-in-focusing on provisional consensus-building has to be the foundation of political thought

Hoppe 99 Robert Hoppe is Professor of Policy and knowledge in the Faculty of Management and Governance at Twente University, the Netherlands. &#34;Argumentative Turn&#34; Science and Public Policy, volume 26, number 3, June 1999, pages 201–210 works.bepress.com  Until 1980, Lindblom and Wildavsky defended an ……………. discursive pluralism with an eye to the quality of decision-making and the authenticity of consensus formation.    

Rational consensus politics key to bridging political stalemates-their method makes action and judgment impossible 

Hoppe 99 Robert Hoppe is Professor of Policy and knowledge in the Faculty of Management and Governance at Twente University, the Netherlands. &#34;Argumentative Turn&#34; Science and Public Policy, volume 26, number 3, June 1999, pages 201–210 works.bepress.com  In other words, in all collective decision-making ……………. (Schon, 1983), analysts marry frame-reflection and frame-criticism in an optimal mix of hermeneutic and critical moments in policy analysis.   

Root Cause-2NC 

Alt solves root cause

Harrison 6 Mark Harrison is a professor of economics at the University of Warwick and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University &#34;An Economist Looks at Suicide Terrorism&#34; World Economics 7:4 (2006), pp. 1-15 Sept 13 2006 www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/harrison/public/we06postprint.pdf  Breaking the Cycle  Suicide terrorism is the outcome of a voluntary ……….. being more recently when a terrorist faction and a recruit first devised the terms of a voluntary but enforceable agreement to trade life for identity. This contract is an invention with its own place in the history of technology.   

VTL-2NC 

The K turns and disproves value to life arguments-we’re the only team with a method that can explain why certain people sacrifice life for identity or a larger cause-this effectuates a more productive relationship to both life and death by causing social reforms so that life becomes more valuable

Harrison 6 Mark Harrison is a professor of economics at the University of Warwick and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University &#34;An Economist Looks at Suicide Terrorism&#34; World Economics 7:4 (2006), pp. 1-15 Sept 13 2006 www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/harrison/public/we06postprint.pdf  The Economics of Suicide  Why do some people choose to die? Economists have ……………… is young people, who have not yet begun to build the living alternative and whose lifetime of effort is therefore still in front of them. 

VTL/Death First

Life has intrinsic and objective value achieved through subjective pleasures-its preservation should be an a priori goal 

 Amien Kacou 8 WHY EVEN MIND? On The A Priori Value Of “Life”, Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy, Vol 4, No 1-2 (2008) cosmosandhistory.org/index.php/journal/article/view/92/184  Furthermore, that manner of finding things good that is in …………—for all we have really done is highlight the correspondence between value and desire. Perhaps, our inquiry should be a bit more complex.  

death’s symbolic value does not deny the value of life-the option to continue living should always be available 

 Amien Kacou 8 WHY EVEN MIND?On The A Priori Value Of “Life” Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy, Vol 4, No 1-2 (2008) cosmosandhistory.org/index.php/journal/article/view/92/184  I. What we mean (in more detail)  Regardless of whether or not we find that it is the “fundamental ……………..seppuku is honorable or how end-of-life decisions should be made. (The subjective question, the question of circumstances and the a posteriori answer coincide.)     

AT: You Essentialize/Not Everyone

 Selfish-2NC 

Rational choice theory explains terrorism without essentializing what it means to be “rational”-our method starts from the premise that every act is rational and that there are multiple rubrics to evaluate ends and means-this is a way to force empathy to cause better approaches to terrorism

Shughart 6 William F. Shughart II F. A. P. Barnard Distinguished Professor of Economics The University of Mississippi, &#34;Terrorism in rational choice perspective&#34; No date listed, latest citation from 2006 home.olemiss.edu/shughart/Terrorism%20in%20rational%20choice%20perspective.pdf  In the economist&#39;s model of rational human behavior, all individuals ……………………….. Many of the causes and consequences of terrorism are, in short, amenable to explanation by the economist&#39;s model of demand and supply. 

 Economic collapse inevitable - now’s better than later 

MacKenzie 8 [Debora, Are We Doomed, New Scientist, Vol. 197 Issue 2650, p32-35, 4p, 4 May 2005, EBSCO)  DOOMSDAY. The end of civilisation. …in the long run this cannot be sustainable.   Economic collapse prevents extinction from environmental destruction 

Speth 2008 Served as President Jimmy Carter’s White House environmental adviser and as head of the United Nations’ largest agency for international development Prof at Vermont law school. Former dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University . Former Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center, teaching environmental and constitutional law. .Former Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality in the Executive Office of the President. Co-founder of the Natural Resources Defense Council. Was law clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Hugo L. Black JD, Yale. (James Gustave, The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability, Gigapedia, 6-9)  But the much larger and more threatening …the transformative changes needed. 

 And, that’s uniquely true for warming 

Siegel 9 (Lee, Is Global Warming Unstoppable? Theory Also Says Energy Conservation Doesn&#39;t Help, 22 November 2009, %%))   In a provocative new study, …change the future course of civilization.&#34;   That causes extinction-de-growth key to solving 

 Dr. Minqi Li 10, Assistant Professor Department of Economics, University of Utah, “The 21st Century Crisis: Climate Catastrophe or Socialism” Paper prepared for the David Gordon Memorial Lecture at URPE Summer Conference 2010  The global average surface temperature …of production and society-wide planning (Section 6).   Warming outweighs everything  The New York End Times 6 The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction.   We rate Global Climate …incorporate the dangers here . 

 De-growth solves better than tech-tipping point coming soon but collapse avoids it 

 Patrick Moriarty 10 Ph.D.1, Department of Design, Monash University and Damon Honnery Ph.D.2, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Monash University &#34;Why Technical Fixes Won’t Mitigate Climate Change&#34; Journal of Cosmology, 2010, Vol 8, 1921-1927. journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange107.html  4. Discussion We have argued so far that none  …a just and sustainable future. 

 Growth causes war 

Trainer 2 Senior Lecturer of School of Social Work @ University of New South Wales (Ted, If You Want Affluence, Prepare for War, Democracy &#38; Nature, Vol. 8, No. 2, EBSCO)  If this limits-to-growth analysis is …countries move to ‘The Simpler Way’. 

 Extinction 

Chase-Dunn 96 Distinguished Professor of Sociology and Director of the Institute for Research on World-Systems at the University of (Christopher, Conflict Among Core States: World-System Cycles and Trends, 23 January 1996, %%)) 

Note-figure omitted  Late in the K-wave upswing (i.e. in the 2020s), the …the &#34;resource theory of war.&#34;    Economic growth fuels fast power transitions and democratic revolutions that undermine global political stability 

 Dani Rodrik 11 is Professor of political economy at Harvard University &#34;Economic growth is not enough&#34; Feb 13 www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/937726economic-growth-is-not-enough  Perhaps the most striking finding in the United Nations’ …keep you in power forever.   Growth causes terrorism 

Cronin 3 Senior Associate at the Oxford Leverhulme Programme on the Changing Character of War (Audrey Kurth, “Behind the Curve: Globalization and International Terrorism”, Project MUSE)  The objectives of international terrorism have also …diverse network of financial and information resources.   Growth causes diseases mutations - escalates to spread rampantly 

Hamburg 8—FDA Commissioner. Senior Scientist Nuclear Threat Initiative. MD (Margaret, Germs Go Global: Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America, %%))  Globalization, the worldwide movement toward …experienced a 13.4 percent drop in tourism in 2003.53 

 Extinction 

Yu 9—Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, %%)) A pandemic will kill off all humans …into a human-viable strain (10). 

 Complexity means quick collapse is net-better for human welfare even if they win their offense-delay magnifies environmental and human impacts 

Vail 5 – Jeff Vail, attorney at Davis Graham &#38; Stubbs LLP in Denver, Colorado specializing in litigation and energy issues, former intelligence officer with the US Air Force and energy infrastructure counterterrorism specialist with the US Department of the Interior, April 28, 2005, “The Logic of Collapse,” online:  But despite the declining marginal returns, …civilization, things will be different”?    Only collapse now ensures there’s enough natural resources and ecosystem resilience left to create sustainable societies-delay means extinction 

Barry 8 – Glen Barry, Ph.D. in Land Resources from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, MS in Conservation Biology and Sustainable Development from Madison, Founder and President of Ecological Internet, January 14, 2008, “Economic Collapse and Global Ecology,” online:  Humanity and the Earth are faced with an enormous …a final, fatal death swoon.

Transition succeeds now

 Thomas P.M. Barnett 12-1, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis &#38; Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, December 1, 2011, “So, How&#39;s That Egyptian Revolution Coming Along?,” online:  All of this is happening too slowly!  …we imagine it to be. 

The SCAF won’t make any further concessions

 Ashraf Khalil 12-20, is a journalist and author of the forthcoming Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation, December 20, 2011, “Egypt’s Rodney King Moment,” Foreign Policy, online:  Perhaps the surest way for the …than offer concessions.  

SCAF refusal to transition is driven by their material interests-plan doesn’t change those 

 Khalil al-Anani 10-20, Researcher at the School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University, October 20, 2011, “Egypt’s Souring Transition,” online:  For the junta, the transition is …  towards a sustainable democracy.  

The SCAF will never submit to civilian authority

 Tarek Masoud 11, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and a Carnegie Scholar, Fall 2011, “Liberty, Democracy, and Discord in Egypt,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 4, p. 117-129  The contention between liberals and Islamists …to the armed forces. 28

The aff isn’t inherent-they have failed to meet an aff burden which means vote negative on presumption 

IMET cooperation high and will continue

 Major General Kenneth F. Mckenzie 11, Jr., USMC, the Director of the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate at U.S. Central Command; and Elizabeth C. Packard, Strategic Analyst in the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate, December 2011, “Enduring Interests and Partnerships: Military-to-Military Relationships in the Arab Spring,” PRISM 3, No. 1, online:  Making up for lost time in relationship-building …open and honest exchanges. 

CMR cooperation now specifically over democratic issues

 Major General Kenneth F. Mckenzie 11, Jr., USMC, the Director of the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate at U.S. Central Command; and Elizabeth C. Packard, Strategic Analyst in the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate, December 2011, “Enduring Interests and Partnerships: Military-to-Military Relationships in the Arab Spring,” PRISM 3, No. 1, online:  The complexity of the USCENTCOM AOR is reflected in our …  during the recent events there.&#34;8 

This is especially true considering their plan doesn’t say “increase” it says “offer”, which means even if there’s insufficient IMET now the plan doesn’t increase, it only advocates the SQ

2NC

FY2012 budget includes IMET

 USGLC 12-21 – U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, December 21, 2011, “International Affairs Budget Update,” online: INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROGRAM (IMET) BASE FUNDING   CHANGE 11-12 $0 

Squo IMET solves

 Thompson 11—Pulitzer Prize winner. National security correspondent, TIME (Mark, Sharing Democracy With the Egyptian Military, ) 

But ever since the Camp David military for decades,&#34; he said. &#34;I certainly look to that to continue.&#34; 

IMET cooperation high and will continue

 Major General Kenneth F. Mckenzie 11, Jr., USMC, the Director of the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate at U.S. Central Command; and Elizabeth C. Packard, Strategic Analyst in the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate, December 2011, “Enduring Interests and Partnerships: Military-to-Military Relationships in the Arab Spring,” PRISM 3, No. 1, online:  

 Making up for lost time in  of open and honest exchanges. 

CMR cooperation now specifically over democratic issues

 Major General Kenneth F. Mckenzie 11, Jr., USMC, the Director of the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate at U.S. Central Command; and Elizabeth C. Packard, Strategic Analyst in the Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate, December 2011, “Enduring Interests and Partnerships: Military-to-Military Relationships in the Arab Spring,” PRISM 3, No. 1, online:  

 The complexity of the USCENTCOM 

during the recent events there.&#34;8 

The United States Federal Executive branch should communicate to the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that it will not invoke the “national security” waiver for conditions placed on fiscal year 2012 military aid to Egypt, and that the Secretary of State will only certify compliance with such conditions if, at a minimum, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces ceases efforts to preserve a political role for the military in a new Egyptian constitution, implements its promise to hold Presidential elections by June 2012, allows parliamentary elections to conclude without substantial interference, ends the use of military trials for civilian defendants, ends the application of Egypt’s emergency law, and permanently ceases intimidation of nongovernmental organizations.

Solves the case-military aid has already been conditioned-but communicating intent to follow through and not use the waiver is key to the transition

HRF 12-19 – Human Rights First, December 19, 2011, “U.S. Government Must Use Aid Leverage to Prevent Further Human Rights Violations in Egypt,” online:  Human Rights First …democracy in Egypt and the broader region,” noted Hicks.  

Only commitment to conditioning military aid solves U.S. credibility-otherwise we’ll inevitably be perceived as enablers of repression 

 Cynthia P. Schneider 12-23, Professor of Diplomacy and Culture at Georgetown, head of the Arts and Culture Initiative within the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, December 23, 2011, “Hard Power Trumps Soft In U.S. Policy Towards Egypt,” online:  On Monday Secretary of State Hillary Clinton … weapons pouring down on them.  

Transition Adv

Transition succeeds now

Thomas P.M. Barnett 12-1, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, December 1, 2011, “So, How's That Egyptian Revolution Coming Along?,” online: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/egyptian-elections-2011-6604670

All of this is happening …problem we imagine it to be.

The SCAF won’t make any further concessions

Ashraf Khalil 12-20, is a journalist and author of the forthcoming Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation, December 20, 2011, “Egypt’s Rodney King Moment,” Foreign Policy, online: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/20/egypt_s_rodney_king_moment?page=full

Perhaps the surest way …lashing out than offer concessions.

SCAF refusal to transition is driven by their material interests---plan doesn’t change those

Khalil al-Anani 10-20, Researcher at the School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University, October 20, 2011, “Egypt’s Souring Transition,” online: http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/egypts-souring-transition-4506

For the junta, the …towards a sustainable democracy.

The SCAF will never submit to civilian authority

Tarek Masoud 11, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and a Carnegie Scholar, Fall 2011, “Liberty, Democracy, and Discord in Egypt,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 4, p. 117-129

The contention between liberals…specific to the armed forces. 28

No Middle East war

Salem 11—Director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. PhD from Harvard (Paul, 'Arab Spring' Has Yet to Alter Region's Strategic Balance, carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43907)

Despite their sweeping repercussions for both …pattern of regional relations.

Empirically proven

Cook 7—CFR senior fellow for Mid East Studies. BA in international studies from Vassar College, an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and both an MA and PhD in political science from the University of Pennsylvania(Steven, Ray Takeyh, CFR fellow, and Suzanne Maloney, Brookings fellow, 6 /28, Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast, http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6383265, AG)

Underlying this anxiety was a …ts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Israel won’t be aggressive---multiple constraints

Ravid 8/23—diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz newspaper (Barak, Netanyahu tells cabinet, )

The cabinet voted …instead of rushing into war."

No Israeli aggression or overreaction to attacks---they will show restraint

Korski 11—senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Former Stat Dept. official (Daniel, The government should acknowledge Israeli restraint, 27 March 2011, http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/6818828/the-government-should-acknowledge-israeli-restraint.thtml)

With NATO planes circling above Libya,…. Not necessarily publicly, but in private messages. 

Suez irrelevant---not key to the economy or hegemony

Stapf 11 Ray A. Stapf, Captain, U.S. Navy "A MATURE MARITIME STRATEGY FOR AFRICA TO MEET NATIONALSECURITY GOALS" 7/23 www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA545430&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

In contrast, the U.S. shipments…no risk to U.S. economic security and stability.  

No heg impact

Parent 11—assistant for of pol sci, U Miami. PhD in pol sci, Columbia—and—Paul MacDonald—assistant prof of pol sci, Williams (Joseph, Graceful Decline?;The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment, Intl. Security, Spring 1, p. 7)

Some observers might dispute our conclusions…engage in foreign policy adventurism. 94

No impact to heg---decline doesn’t cause conflict, lashout, or draw-in---all their studies are wrong

Paul K. MacDonald 11, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College, and Joseph M. Parent, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, Spring 2011, “Graceful Decline?: The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4, p. 7-44

How do great powers respond …failed to retrench recovered their relative position.

No Pakistani collapse

AP 10 (Pakistan's stability, leadership under spotlight after floods and double dealing accusations, 6 August 2010, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/08/06/pakistans-stability-leadership-spotlight-floods-double-dealing-accusations/, AMiles)

Not for the first time, Pakistan appears …20 million of the country's 175 million people.

Multiple factors prove no indo pak war

Mutti 9— Master’s degree in International Studies with a focus on South Asia, U Washington. BA in History, Knox College.  over a decade of expertise covering on South Asia geopolitics, Contributing Editor to Demockracy journal (James, 1/5, Mumbai Misperceptions: War is Not Imminent, http://demockracy.com/four-reasons-why-the-mumbai-attacks-wont-result-in-a-nuclear-war/, AG)

Fearful of imminent war, the …regional influence to bring more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. 

1nc

CP

TEXT: The United States federal government should offer sufficient lines of long-term and low-interest credit to Libya exclusively for the purpose of contracting democratic government support from the United States federal government.

CP is definitively competitive---affs have to be unconditional and not for profit---no topical reading of the plan could be extension of credit

Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin

By the end of the 1990s, the term ‘democracy AND  Democracy assistance is therefore a very precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

CP solves the case better---

First, it’s key to tempering capital inflows---the plan causes exchange-rate overvaluation which crushes their economy

Lahiri et al 10/23 Sajal Lahiri is a Professor of Economics at the University of Essex, AND Subhayu Bandyopadhyay is a research officer in the Research Division of the. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, AND Javed Younas is assistant professor of economics at the American University of Sharjah, "Should Easier Access to International Credit Replace Foreign Aid?" IZA Discussion Paper No. 6024 Oct 23 2011 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1948020

Much has been written about the AND both theoretically and empirically.

That turns the whole case

Ben-Meir 11/1 Alon Ben-Meir Senior Fellow, NYU's Center for Global Affairs www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/the-arab-springpolitical_b_1069665.html

Whereas political reforms are AND pretext of maintaining order and stability.

Second, only the CP forces local ownership---that’s key to credibility and aid legitimacy---turns case

Thomas Carothers 9 is vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and and has written extensively on democratic issues "Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance" www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf

This systematic externality of the AND will be  questioned.

Third, The plan is funded through immoral taxation---that’s tantamount to involuntary servitude---decision-rule comes before aid effectiveness---the CP is a business contract which avoids it

Vance 2k Laurence M. Vance is a policy adviser to The Future of Freedom Foundation "The Foreign Aid Debacle" Dec 2000 v18 No12 mises.org/freemarket_detail.aspx?control=334

One of the pillars of an interventionist AND that it is foreign but rather that their money is being taken without their consent.

Fourth, it avoids politics

Magan 11/4 Michael Magan, Writer @ Foreign Policy "Robin Hood Tax is not a feather in Sarkozy's cap" Nov 4 2011  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/blog/69521

Gone are the days when world AND where we know it will make a difference.

CP is indefinite and doesn’t provide concessionary aid so it’s a PIC out of functional mandates of the resolution---that means it’s plan-minus so presumption flips neg and tie goes to the runner

Theory/Competition---2NC

There are two differences between the plan and CP that make it both functionally and textually competitive---if we win it is competitive it’s de facto legitimate because it’s a relevant opportunity cost to providing assistance---we only have to win one.

The CP is for profit---democracy assistance by definition has to be concessionary and can’t require reimbursement---the CP only offers a loan it doesn’t provide assistance---it is agency contracting which is a distinct mechanism---that’s Lappin

Democracy assistance has to be concessionary

Burnell 7 Peter Burnell, Department of International Studies, University of Warwick, From Evaluating Democracy Assistance to Appraising Democracy Promotion‖ Political Studies, (Vol 56, 414–434), p. 420-1

Democracy assistance, which AND early and cannot be reversed.

Assistance can’t be a loan or contract---this card is specific to the plan mechanism

USAID 9/23/2011 "ADS Chapter 303 Grants and Cooperative Agreementsto Non-Governmental Organizations"

Grants and Cooperative Agreements to Non-Governmental Organizations

Assistance

Financial support to accomplish a public purpose, AND  under  procurement laws and regulations. (Chapter 303, 304) 

The CP is positive conditionality---that’s distinct from democracy assistance because it can’t be a carrot or stick---assistance has to be provided irrespective of reciprocation by the recipients---that’s Lappin

This is a core question in policy-making---our solvency evidence proves there’s a congressional debate about using aid as leverage---they artificially insulate the aff from core policy questions which destroys comprehensive debate over US democracy policy

The CP important for policy-making and academic debates

Ranaweera 3 Thilak Ranaweera is a consultant at the World Bank "Foreign Aid, Conditionality and Ghost of the Financing Gap: A Forgotten Aspect ofthe Aid Debate" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3019, April 2003 www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2003/09/06/000094946_03042204042890/additional/111511322_20041117164524.pdf

The World Bank publication “AND (2001), Hermes and Lensink (2001), Hoeven (2001), Hansen and Tarp  (2000), Lensink and White (2000).   

And, that requires certainty---the CP is indefinite

Judge Henry Nieto, Colorado Court of Appeals, 8-20-2009 People v. Munoz, 240 P.3d 311 (Colo. Ct. App. 2009)

"Should" is "used . . . to express duty, AND support expenditures "should" be allocated for the purpose of parents' federal tax exemption to be mandatory).

CP solves cred and signal---they say yes and are willing to reimburse the US

Wolfowitz 11/3 Paul, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has served as deputy U.S. secretary of defense and U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, 2011, “America's Opportunity in Libya”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011721031265512.html

Those who opposed NATO action to liberate AND the U.S. can afford. In the end, we will pay a higher price if we do nothing.

The CP is key to accountability and financial ownership---Iraq proves plan causes diversion

Graham Press Release 10/31/2011 "American Assistance to Libya Should be Loans, Not Grants" lgraham.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=5ac8faf8-802a-23ad-4ac2-c90dd319d193

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-AND more expensive than they needed to be.  I hope our nation will not make the same mistake twice."

Do both doesn’t solve any net benefit

Choice---They’ll obviously pick the plan over the CP---providing aid creates a disincentive for loan repayment---that means it doesn’t solve politics or economy

Bjørnskov & Schröder 10 Christian Bjørnskov and Philipp J.H. Schröder *Department of Economics, Aarhus University "Are Debt Repayment Incentives Undermined by Foreign Aid?" November 24, 2010 www.hha.dk/nat/wper/10-20_chbjpsc.pdf

One can nevertheless question the AND conspicuously  unpromising government investment projects and capital flight”. 

Confusion---multiple programs with the same purpose mean people say no to the plan and the perm

Ranis 11 Gustav Ranis is the Frank Altschul Professor Emeritus of International Economics at Yale University "Giving Up on Foreign Aid" Cato Journal, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Winter 2011) www.relooney.info/SI_Expeditionary/Aid_18.pdf

A second source of the skepticism on AND by itself can't do the job, in Haiti or in any of the poor Sub-Saharan countries.

No credibility

Ranis 11 Gustav Ranis is the Frank Altschul Professor Emeritus of International Economics at Yale University "Giving Up on Foreign Aid" Cato Journal, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Winter 2011) www.relooney.info/SI_Expeditionary/Aid_18.pdf

The critical element of restored AND to be radically altered.

Aid triggers Dutch Disease & Rent Seeking – inflation will crush the economy & governance reforms – only loans solve

Ramiarison ’10 – Researcher @ Institute of Developing Economies

V.R.F. Series, no.462, http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Vrf/pdf/462.pdf

Another persistent critic of foreign AND, further damaging their absorptive capacity.

Dutch Disease triggers rent seeking – impact is Libyan coups and civil war -and Only the CP solves oil induced Dutch Disease

C.I.C. ‘11

Canadian International Council, Designing Institutions for a New Libya, November 2, 2011

http://www.opencanada.org/features/designing-institutions-for-a-new-libya/

Oil and accountable government rarely mix. AND and natural resource rents.

That turns leadership

Walt 10/25—IR at Harvard (Stephen, Coming Up Empty, 10/25/11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/25/obama_foreign_policy_coming_up_empty?page=full)

7. Libya: Nobody is mourning Muammar al-Qaddafi's ouster or his death, and AND "Obama Doctrine" will fade faster than watercolors in the Libyan sun.

Dutch disease exacerbates food inflation

Lustig 9 (nora, Shapiro Visiting Professor of International Affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs,

George Washington University, Visiting Fellow at the Center for Global Development and Research Associate at El

Colegio de Mexico.The Curse of Volatile Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the DevelopingWorld1, depot.gdnet.org/cms/conference/papers/Nora Lustig_Paper_Plenary 1.pdf)

When confronted with rising AND rest of the world is made worse off.

Plan triggers politics---cp avoids it

Pollack 11 Kenneth M. Pollack is Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and a former Director for Persian Gulf Affairs at the National Security Council., 11/17/2011The Arab Awakening ed: Pollack pp238

Reconciling Ends and Means

Today, the United AND  total U.S. budget—to become the difference between success and failure.

Link turns cred

McFaul 6 David Adesnik is a member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Michael McFaul is the Helen and Peter Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law at Stanford University; and a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington Quarterly, Spring

Second, words mattered, especially AND credibility, including that of the president.

And, it turns substantive solvency

Norris 11 John Norris is the Executive Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative. 3/18,

The question is: What do our leaders AND are few and far between.

Wins dissipate too fast---doesn’t generate sustainable capital---especially on MidEast issues

Farmer 9/25 John Farmer The Star-Ledger "Republican politics in Washington could place Israel at risk" 9/25/11 blog.nj.com/njv_john_farmer/2011/09/republican_politics_in_washing.html

In a 2007 Fox News interview,…, the water’s up to your knees."

Obama’s Velcro---only blame stick to him---means winners lose---healthcare proves

Nicholas & Hook 10 Peter and Janet, Staff Writers – LA Times, “Obama the Velcro president”, LA Times, 7-30, http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730/3

If Ronald Reagan was the classic …translated into dinner table conversations."

Winners lose---PC’s not renewable, is zero-sum, and diminishes fast

Ryan 9 Selwyn, Professor Emeritus and former Director, Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of the West Indies, “Obama and political capital,” 1/18 http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=161426968

Like many, I expect much from Obama, …the latent "Obama Party").

PC is key and zero sum

Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Profs Department of Political Science, @ University of California Irvine "How Presidents Push, When Presidents Win" Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3 SAGE

Before developing presidents’ lobbying …may systematically influence them.

This is a voting issue
Increase must be a net increase
Rogers 5 Judge, STATE OF NEW YORK, ET AL., PETITIONERS v. U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, RESPONDENT, NSR MANUFACTURERS ROUNDTABLE, ET AL., INTERVENORS, 2005 U.S. App. LEXIS 12378, ; 60 ERC (BNA) 1791, 6/24, lexis
 [48]  Statutory Interpretation. HN16While the CAA defines a "modification" …the engine was in perfect condition.  

Democracy assistance must be financial transfers
Daniela Huber 11 PhD IR Candidate @ Hebrew U, MA in International Relations from the Free University of Berlin, email exchange on August 1 2011, full exchange can be found at nudebate.blogspot.com
I think that democracy assistance is financial aid …promotion by example, or even military invasion. 

That’s key to neg ground-it’s impossible to quantify a substantial increase otherwise
Jeremy M. Sharp 10 Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs "U.S. Foreign Assistance to the Middle East: Historical Background, Recent Trends, and the FY2011 Request" June 15 www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32260.pdf
U.S. Programs
U.S. officials promote reform …therefore a target for  critics.

Voting issue and reject the team-time-investment in theory means we have to fight an uphill battle just to get back to square 1-and, topicality is a yes/no question, so shifting aff mechanism radically alters our strategy and means they’re vague and conditional 

No aid now because of opposition-even reallocations cost capital
L.A. Times 11
Paul Richter, April 12, 2011, “U.S. aid Arabs: Debt worries stymie U.S. aid to Arab nations in transition”, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413
The Obama administration's efforts to use …nation-building in foreign countries."

And, even internal reappropriations link-
Congress has to authorize reallocations and they backlash because of pet-project favoritism
Josh Rogin 11 “Lugar holding up State Department funds for Tunisian democracy” April 6 thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/06/lugar_holding_up_state_department_funds_for_tunisian_democracy
The State Department wants to …source of the money could be found.

Even if it’s secret reprogramming Congress will still backlash
Stone & Bendery 11 Andrea Stone is senior national correspondent for The Huffington Post AND Jennifer Bendery is Roll Call's White House correspondent "Obama Middle East Speech: President Will Announce Billions In Economic Aid to Egypt, Tunisia" 5/18 www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html
President Barack Obama will announce …objections to erasing Egypt's debt.

And, if they don’t get Congressional authority that just magnifies the link
Josh Rogin 11 “Lugar holding up State Department funds for Tunisian democracy” April 6 thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/06/lugar_holding_up_state_department_funds_for_tunisian_democracy
"Senator Lugar continues to have a …only add to Lugar's concerns."

The affirmative’s reading of Bouazizi’s self-immolation is wrong. 

Bouazizi’s suicide had beneficial effects as an act of rebellion that could not have been accomplished if he had approached his life in the way that the 1AC demands, by rejecting suicide altogether. 

Self-immolation in the context of a repressive state like Tunisia is the ultimate act of solidarity-the burning body generates understanding of our common humanity and a collective political response to oppression that no other symbol can achieve. Embracing his suicide as the proper response trains us in nonviolent resistance.
Costica Bradatan 11, assistant professor in the Honors College at Texas Tech University, May 23, 2011, “A Light for the Future: On the Political Uses of a Dying Body,” Dissent Magazine, online: http://dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=479
ORDINARILY, POLITICS is very much about …into a tool for other, higher purposes.

It’s good to ascribe a positive political meaning to Bouazizi’s suicide-the receptive embrace of his suicide as a positive gesture is the key act that breaks down the web of repression throughout MENA-it causes a shift away from political passivity towards the active rebellion the 1AC valorizes
Costica Bradatan 11, assistant professor in the Honors College at Texas Tech University, May 23, 2011, “A Light for the Future: On the Political Uses of a Dying Body,” Dissent Magazine, online: http://dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=479
FOR A self-immolation to become …redeems them of anything, it is of this oppressive feeling.

Whether or not Bouazizi intended his act to be explicitly political is irrelevant to our argument-our point is that we should respond by concluding it was the correct choice in the situation he was faced with-this stance is the most life-affirming way to relate to Bouazizi
Costica Bradatan 11, assistant professor in the Honors College at Texas Tech University, May 23, 2011, “A Light for the Future: On the Political Uses of a Dying Body,” Dissent Magazine, online: http://dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=479
The Bouazizi case is remarkable also …be taught how to live.”

Second -the unique nature of the Tunisian state justifies Bouazizi’s act as the correct response

The Tunisian dictatorship reduced citizens like Bouazizi to the status of bare life-their lives were treated as though they were valueless and could be destroyed with impunity. The act of self-immolation is the one thing that could reverse these power relations by reclaiming the power over the individual’s life-Bouazizi rendered Ben Ali’s sovereignty inoperative the moment he lit the match
Sari Hanafi 11, associate professor of sociology at the American University of Beirut, February 15, 2011, “The Jasmine and the Nile Revolutions: A Sociological Reading,” online: http://www.transeuropeennes.org/en/articles/voir_pdf/245
Political earthquakes have shaken …bricks, knives and sticks.

Third-our affirmation of Bouazizi’s self-immolation as a model strategy of rebellion is key to an emerging global consciousness necessary to prevent endless cycles of war and planetary environmental collapse
Trevor Malkinson 11, MA in Philosophy from Brock University, student at the Vancouver School of Theology, March 9, 2011, “What’s Wrong With Martyrdom? – Lessons from Mohamed Bouazizi, Socrates, and Obi-Wan Kenobi,” Center for World Spirituality, online: http://www.ievolve.org/2011/03/what%E2%80%99s-wrong-with-martyrdom-%E2%80%93-lessons-from-mohamed-bouazizi-socrates-and-obi-wan-kenobi/
On December 17, 2010, a Tunisian street vendor named …the testimonies of our own lives. The time is at hand.

Fourth -this all disproves their reading of Camus. 

Camus’ rejection of suicide is decontextualized and divorced from the lived reality of oppressed individuals-this makes it fundamentally unethical for them to conclude Bouazizi’s self-immolation was the wrong response based on Camus’ critique of suicide-it shuts down our solidarity with him and those like him
Kathleen O'Dwyer 11, lecturer in English Language and Literature at Mary Immaculate College, University of Limerick, Ireland, 2011, “Camus’s Challenge: The Question of Suicide,” Journal of Humanistic Psychology, Vol. XX(X), p. 1-13
In the introduction to his essays, Camus puts …and a serious human problem.

Specifically-you should reject general philosophical prohibitions on suicide in the context of Bouazizi’s self-immolation
Torbjörn Tännsjö 11, the Kristian Claëson Professor of Practical Philosophy at Stockholm University, 2011, “Shalt Thou Sometimes Murder? On the Ethics of Killing,” online: http://people.su.se/~jolso/HS-texter/shaltthou.pdf
Up to now I have conducted the …is enough to cast doubt upon it.