The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform in Bahrain. 

Advantage One—the Fleet: 

Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf-failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention-also crushes US credibility
Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs, http://www.gulfinstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=148:blunder-in-bahrain-&catid=26:articles&Itemid=23 

There is no country affected 

in negating Iranian propaganda.

Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization
WP 9/9Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now", 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html
BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story 

the crisis resumes.

That’s key to maintaining the 5th fleet-solves piracy, checks Iran, guards the SLOCS, and boosts US cred-it’s now or never-inevitable radicalization and Iranian involvement will boot US presence
Cooley and Nexon 11—Alexander, associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, member of Columbia University's Institute for War and Peace Studies, Daniel Nexon, associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University, "Bahrain's Base Politics", Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#

Until the recent 

after it is under way.

5th Fleet presence key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism
Goodspeed 11—Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/

The tiny oil-producing state 

the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

Adventurism goes nuclear - credible deterrence’s key to solve
Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance, http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained

 which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.

That causes oil shocks, Saudi instability, and Iranian aggression
Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912

First, Iran would use a Bahrain 

seaborne oil shipments pass.

That collapses the economy
Blanche 9—Ed, The Middle East, August-September, "Flashpoint Hormuz: US and allies brace for trouble in the choke-point Strait of Hormuz, gateway to the gulf, as regional tension escalates", http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2742/is_403/ai_n35578767/?tag=mantle_skin;content
The strait is a 180km-long horseshoe-shaped waterway 

a mid-2008 assessment of the Iranian threat. 

Causes resource wars, democratic backsliding, and terrorism - all go nuclear
Harris & Burrows 9 Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf
Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes 

increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world. 

5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony
Cropsey 10Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

American maritime strategy has played a 

recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Naval power independently solves great power wars
Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf]

No other disruption is 

projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

And perception of credible Iranian deterrence key to international security alliances and US power
Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

As of the beginning of 2011, 

to its commitments overseas. 

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace
Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture

 Pacific Century now unfolding. 

Fleet presence key to counter piracy
Weitz 11—Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, PhD from Harvard, "The US Military and Bahrain", 2/24, The Second Line of Defense, http://www.sldinfo.com/the-u-s-military-and-bahrain/

The Bahrain base also supports security missions 

then return to the more secure mother ship.

Piracy collapses global trade, causes devastating oil spills, and finances terror networks  
Middleton 8—Roger, consultant reseacher in the Africa Programme at the Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Economic Affairs, "Piracy in Somalia", October, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf
What piracy does to international trade 

solve the problem once it has escalated. 

Ocean collapse causes extinction
Craig 3— Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155, Lexis
Biodiversity and 

few fishers go out of business as a result. 

Piracy enables terrorist use of WMD
Luft and Korin 4—Foreign Affairs, executive director of the Institute for Analysis of Global Security, Korin is the director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS and editor of Energy Security, "Terrorism Goes to Sea", November/December, http://www.iags.org/fa2004.html

Pirates and Islamist terrorist groups 

multi-billion-dollar damage on the world economy.

Extinction
Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

To an increasing extent, 

the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Advantage Two is Credibility—

Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements
Levine 11Mark, professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, "Here we go again: Egypt to Bahrain", Al Jazeera, Feb 18, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201121882356449949.html

It took until Hosni Mubarak was safely 

incapable of learning from mistakes in the immediate past ?

Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war
John Guardiano 11, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring

There is, after all, a 

Egypt and elsewhere. Now.

That’s key to solve global problems—builds coalitions for leadership and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars
Stanley 7—Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report,http://www.prod.sandia.gov/cgi-bin/techlib/access-control.pl/2007/070903.pdf

How important is soft power, 

necessary to address such threats effectively. 

US credibility key to prevent Middle Eastern prolif
McInnis 5 (Kathleen, Coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, The Washington Quarterly, Summer, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East”, http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf)
Taking into 

U.S. nuclear weapons in these countries because of their stability.

Nuclear Armageddon
The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html

Any Third Lebanon War/

 anything but the Biblical Armageddon.

Solvency

US explicit diplomacy key to constitutional monarchy and negotiated solutions—solves conflict and Sectarian war  
Indyk & Stork 11 - Ambassador & Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution, Stork is a Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division @ Human Rights Watch
Official Transcript of a Project on Middle East Democracy Panel with Indyk & Stork: “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” Project on Middle East Democracy, U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 212-10, June 29, 2011, 9:00-11:00am, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf
Finally, Ambassador Martin Indyk discussed

, and should quickly condemn it as a “sham” if it fails. 

Constitutional Monarchy is a key avenue for reconciliation between the monarchy and protestors—American mediation spurs a middle ground solution   
Abrams 11—Elliot, Senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush Administration, "The Situation in Bahrain is a Disaster and it may be too late for a compromise", March 17, Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/what-comes-next-in-bahrain-2011-3
So instead of progress toward 

the Emiratis are more sensible; they usually are.

Plan key to quell sectarianism and shut out Iranian influence  
Diwan 11—Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question?page=show

The rival rallies held on February 21 

Arabia for its hard-line message.

\\

AT: Condition on Security Assistance CP 

Pressure causes massive hardliner backlash and jacks the navy base—only moderate nudging solves
Ottaway 11 Analyst @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Marina Ottaway Commentary, April 4, 2011
http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43416

But U.S. concerns in dealing with the Bahrain crisis

Extreme demands strengthen the hard-liners
King 11Assoc. Prof of Government & Georgetown University
Constitutional Monarchy Option In Morocco And Bahrain – Analysis, MEI, May 10, 2011
http://www.eurasiareview.com/constitutional-monarchy-option-in-morocco-and-bahrain-analysis-10052011/

The Iran factor also adds to the…

region’s authoritarian republics.

Prince key to economic reform
Ulrichsen 9Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009

 These results confirmed the findings of an 

to the reform process. 

Bahrain is modeled—key to GCC financial cred—that’s Aziz—prevents structural collapse
Janardhan 11—N, PhD, UAE=based political analyst, "Wither the Gulf? Toward Economic Diversification", May 29, Al Arabiya News, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/29/151035.html

And herein lie some 

is considered important. 

Bahrain key to renewable transition
Tamminen 11Cullman Senior Fellow for Climate Change and Director of the Climate Policy Program at the New America Foundation, The Next China?, Terry Tamminen, May 18, 2009

Two weeks ago I visited Bahrain

 a very special place for doing business or taking your next vacation.

Warming causes extinction -
The New York End Times 6-The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp

We rate Global Climate Change
need to incorporate the dangers here . 

FLEET ADV: RR Plan triggers concessions on both sides The Nation 6/11—The Nation (Thailand), June 11, 2011 Saturday, Clan leaders are to blame for Bahrain's crisis Although the emergency law was lifted last week AND years is long enough for the prime minister. CREDIBILITY ADV: The plan gives meaning to Obama’s rhetoric on Bahrain & operates at the level of low policy to encourage democratization Carothers 7~-~- VP for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard. The Clinton Record on Democracy Promotion, November 16th, 2000, Democracy and Rule of Law Project ~-~- The most substantial element of this process of AND Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and elsewhere. AT: SAUDI INFLUENCE US leverage key—Saudis can’t prevent Terrill 6/27—Andrew, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic International Studies Institute US Army War College, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf”, 6/27, One of the most significant Arab Spring concerns AND more possible in a more stable domestic environment.

~\~\

1AC—CP ANSWERS
US key and internal politics section

American engagement with Bahraini civil society prevents violent crackdowns that turn the Middle East into a powder keg—US involvement in democratic dialogue is key  
Aziz & Musalem 11—Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan &  Social Researcher in Bahrain
Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement, Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011
http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf
The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one
AND
it is in the United States’ national interest. 

Unconditional US support for democratic reforms in Bahrain necessary to bolster the Crown Prince, bring the opposition to the table, and trigger genuine democratic reform
Leigh 6-8-11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times
The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html

The U.S. government's aim this
AND
and tear gas stops raining down on Manama.

The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible; the power struggle between the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister is critical to solidify US security interests in the Gulf and economic reform in Bahrain
Ulrichsen 11 – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E.
OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.  
http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/bahrain-evolution-or-revolution

The security services’ takeover of Pearl Roundabout –
AND
firmly on the world map in recent years.

Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal that results in democratic reform sufficient to block Iranian influence in the Gulf
Aneja 11—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu”
Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope
http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2808/stories/20110422280802400.htm

The blazing Bahraini revolt for democracy has apparently
AND
the most serious threat to the conservative royalty.

2AC—CP ANSWERS 

Plan triggers concessions on both sides
The Nation 6/11—The Nation (Thailand), June 11, 2011 Saturday, Clan leaders are to blame for Bahrain's crisis

Although the emergency law was lifted last week
AND
years is long enough for the prime minister.

King willing to pull Prime Minister support
WT 11—Top Sunni: P.M. should mull quitting after crisis, May ask king’s uncle to step aside for ‘fresh face’ after 40 years in office
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/18/leading-bahraini-sunni-prime-minister-should-resig/

Sheik Abdullatif al-Mahmoud told The Washington
AND
key to any long-term political settlement.

Pressure triggers it
Ottaway 11 Analyst @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Marina Ottaway Commentary, April 4, 2011

But U.S. concerns in dealing
AND
States once again siding with an autocratic regime. 

Prince agenda key to economic reform
Ulrichsen 9Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009

 These results confirmed the findings of an
AND
margin for future delays to the reform process. 

Bahrain economic policy is modeled—key to GCC financial cred—that’s Aziz—prevents structural collapse
Makes instability inevitable
Janardhan 11—N, PhD, UAE=based political analyst, "Wither the Gulf? Toward Economic Diversification", May 29, Al Arabiya News,

And herein lie some pointers to why the
AND
this, a diverse economy is considered important. 

Bahrain key to renewable transition
Tamminen 11Cullman Senior Fellow for Climate Change and Director of the Climate Policy Program at the New America Foundation, The Next China?, Terry Tamminen, May 18, 2009

Two weeks ago I visited Bahrain, an
AND
for doing business or taking your next vacation.

Warming causes extinction -
The New York End Times 6-The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction.

We rate Global Climate Change as a greater
AND
we also need to incorporate the dangers here . 

Permutation do both—this links to PTX—would cause massive Pentagon backlash

Conditionality is a voting issue—destroys 2AC strategic flexibility which is the arc of clash and education In debate—magnified by multiple worlds—depth is key to debate’s political value—reject the team to set a precedent 

Reform without US mediation jacks democracy—refuels the crisis
Mohamoud 5 - Founding Director of Sahan Consultancy, Researcher in Postconflict Development
THE ROLE OF CONSTITUTION-BUILDING PROCESSES IN DEMOCRATIZATION, Case Study, Bahrain, Dr. A. A. Mohamoud, 2005,

The foremost challenge to be addressed is the
AND
organisations like IDEA can play a significant role.

Prisoner release radicalizes the opposition
L.A. Times 11
Bahrain prisoner release might actually intensify demands, February 24, 2011|By Ned Parker, Los Angeles Times

At least 300 people were freed early Wednesday
AND
they were jailed by the island's security services.

New 1ac cards

 -

And perception of credible deterrence key to US power—fleet kick out collapses 

Etzioni 11

—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, 

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and most others

...live up to 

its commitments

 overseas

.  

 -Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf-failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention-also crushes US credibility 

Jacobs 11—

June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs, 

There is no country affected by the Arab 

...reaching of a political settlement, and in negating Iranian propaganda. 

 -Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization 

WP 9/9

Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now", 2011, 

BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the Arab Spring. While the popular

...blows up, vital U.S. interests will be at risk. The administration should use 

its 

influence 

now

 — 

before the crisis

resumes. 

 -Civil war makes the base untenable 

Lippman

8-6

-

11

 - Adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute 

 Why Bahrain is a U.S. ally, and why it needs to stay one, Thomas W. Lippman, August 06. 2011, Special to The Washington Post 

The U.S. position could become untenable

...interests of

 both 

Washington

 and Manama 

to 

encourage his quest

 and hope for success. 

 -5^th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony 

Cropsey 10

Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, 

American 

maritime strategy 

has...has sought for over a century

, seapower

. The consequences of a

 much diminished US fleet are complemented by the American public’s ignorance of them, the slow yet steady pace of naval deterioration, and the increasing time and dismayingly large resources needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades. 

-

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction 

 Thomas P.M. 

Barnett 11

 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7  

It is worth first examining the larger picture: 

We 

...globalization

 further 

in East Asia

 over the second half of the 20th century, 

setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding. 

 -U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism 

Zhang & Shi 11

 – Yuhan Zhang, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Lin Shi, Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and consultant for the World Bank, January 22, 2011, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” East Asia Forum, online:  

Over the past two decades, no...inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy. 

 -Trade eliminates the only rational incentives for war 

Gartzke 11

 Erik Gartzke is an associate 

Prof

essor of political science 

at 

the 

U

niversity of 

C

alifornia, 

S

an 

D

iego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF "SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD" www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/ 

Almost as informative as the decline ...that 

war becomes a durable anachronism

. 

 -War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy-best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable-it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war 

Owen 11

 John M. Owen 

Prof

essor of Politics 

at

 University of 

Virginia 

PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/ 

Andrew 

Mack and his colleagues

 at

...general U.S. material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong. 

 -Absolute decline means the US will become uncooperative and desperate-hegemonic wars will ensue 

Goldstein 7

 Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 & 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682 

Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical...

possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 

 -The rise of the rest is inevitable, but absolute US power makes the transition safe-the alt is transition wars 

Walton 7

 Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in Reading, England, 07 [Dale C, “geopolitics and the great powers in the twenty-first century”, #38;source=gbs_navlinks_s#v=onepage&q=&f=false 

Although international political con

...maximize its security over the long term and 

minimize the probability of a great power war

.

 -Every credible measure of study shows violence is down because of everything consistent with the aff-heg, democracy, liberal trade-it’s only a question of sustaining current dynamics and preventing shocks to the system 

Pinker 11

 Steven Pinker is 

Prof

essor of psychology 

at Harvard

 University "Violence Vanquished" Sept 24 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html 

On the day this article appears, you will

...coincidence that the Humanitarian Revolution came on the heels of the Age of Reason and the Enlightenment, that the Long Peace and rights revolutions coincided with the electronic global village. 

 -Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action 

 John 

Moore 4

 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis 

If

major interstate war is predominantly a product of 

...dramatically increased or decreased? 

 -

Shocks to the democratic system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves 

 JOHN 

HORGAN 9

 is Director of the Center for Science at Stevens Institute of Technology, former senior writer at Scientific American, B.A. from Columbia and an M.S. from Columbia “The End of the Age of War,” Dec 7  

The economic crisis was supposed to increase 

...positive

. If they continue

, who knows? 

World peace

—the dream of countless visionaries and -beautypageant -contestants—or something like it 

may finally come to pass

. 

 -Bahrain is CALLING for US mediation for democratic solutions—solves violence that turns the ME into a powder keg 

Aziz & Musalem 11

—

Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan & Social Researcher in Bahrain 

 Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement, Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011 

 The Saudi monarchy watched in...supporting reform in Bahrain and democracy in the Middle East is no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest. 

 -Unconditional US support bolsters the Crown Prince and brings the opposition to the table 

Leigh 6-8-11

—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times 

 The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time 

,8599,2076559,00.html 

The 

U.S. government's 

aim

 this week 

was to emphasize....

long as promises of talks are kept, and tear gas stops raining down on Manama. 

 -Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal 

Aneja 11

—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu” 

 Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope 

The 

blazing Bahraini 

revolt 

for democracy 

has

apparently 

generated 

...hardliners hope to marginalise the Haq and Wa'ad movements, the two organisations that pose the most serious threat to the conservative royalty. 

 -Constitutional reform in Bahrain critical to reduce the 

risk of sectarian conflict throughout the Middle East 

Diwan 11—

Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd, 

The

 rival 

rallies

 held on February 21 by the opposition in Pearl

...across Arabia 

for its hard-line message

.

~\~\

Unconditional US support for democratic reforms in Bahrain necessary to bolster the Crown Prince, bring the opposition to the table, and trigger genuine democratic reform
Leigh 6-8-11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times
The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html

The U.S. government's aim
Prince largely private — as long as promises of talks are kept, and tear gas stops raining down on Manama.

The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible; the power struggle between the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister is critical to solidify US security interests in the Gulf and economic reform in Bahrain
Ulrichsen 11 – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E.
OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.  
http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/bahrain-evolution-or-revolution

The security services’ takeover
map in recent years.

Strengthening the Crown Prince is key to Bahrain’s economic diversification
Ulrichsen 9Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009

 These results confirmed the findings of an earlier study commissioned in
magnitude of socio-economic challenges facing Bahrain reduces the margin for future delays to the reform process. 

Bahrain is the lynchpin of Gulf economic diversification—modeled by the GCC
Marone 9—David Paul Jr., Captain in the United States Army, BS James Madison University, Naval Postgraduate School Thesis, submitted for a Master of Arts in National Security Affairs, "The US Footprint on the Arabian Peninsula: Can We avoid a repeat of the pullout from Saudi Arabia?", http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA514375

On the verge of expiring oil reserves
and political liberalization. The notion that remains in question, however, is whether the trade programs can be tailored to specific countries and their needs.67

Rentier mentality guarantees resource/water wars
Ulrichsen 9Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009

Issues of infrastructure security
lead to domestic tensions and instability between ethnic, tribal or sectarian groups within society. 

Especially likely in the Middle East.
Arsenault 11 (Chris Arsenault, Al-Jazeera-English, Common Dreams.org, “Water Wars: 21st Century Conflict,” 6-30-11, http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2011/06/30-9)

After droughts ravaged his parents'
skirmishes over the Euphrates River.

Escalates internationally
Postel 1  – Sr. Fellow @ Worldwatch & Wolf – Prof @ Oregon State – 2001, Dehydrating Conflict, Sandra L. Postel* and Aaron T. Wolf, Foreign Policy, September 18, 2001

Others argue, however, that when it comes
questions: What are the early signs and likely locations of water-related disputes, and what can governments and international agents do to prevent the eruption of violence and political instability?

Spreads nuclear wars across Asia
Morgan 7 - Labour Political Analyst – 2007
"Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan!?", Stephen J. Morgan, 06/03/2007

Strong centrifugal forces have always bedevilled
possibility, as well as the acquisition of nuclear and other deadly weapons secrets by Al Qaeda.

Civil instability in Bahrain undermines investment cred of GCC economies  
Ulrichsen 11—Kirstain Coates, "Bahrain" evolution or revolution?", Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Open Democracy, March 1, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/bahrain-evolution-or-revolution

Finally, developments in
world map in recent years.

Gulf economic stability key to emerging market trade
MFR 11MENA Fund Review, bi-monthly print and online publication covering Middle East and North african asset management industries, August 4th, "The Emerging New Order", 2011, http://www.menafundreview.com/the-emerging-new-order/

ENORMOUS growth
could be a problem. There will be competition going forward,” she adds.

That’s key to Chinese growth and preventing world economic collapse
Bloomberg 10"Rising intra-emerging market trade and investment creating new momentum", SImon Kennedy and Matthew Bristow, August 8, http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/rising-intra-emerging-market-trade-and-investment-creating-new-momentum-2010-08-13

The high-speed rail link China
Middle East in 2008.

Global economic crisis causes nuclear great-power war
Mead 9 – Walter Russell Mead, the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2-4, 2009, “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2
If current market turmoil seriously damaged
yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

China’s economic collapse causes CCP instability and lashout -
Mead 9 Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, 2/4/9, http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8
The greatest danger both to U.S
Weimar Germany, 

Chinese lashout goes nuclear
The Epoch Times, Renxing San, 8/4/2004, 8/4, http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-4/30931.html
Since the Party’s
people and who now plans to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives. 

~\~\

AT: Fleet Bad

Kickout causes Iran emboldening
Smith 11Sr. Editor @ Weekly Standard—The Bahrain Crack-Up, Aug 8, 2011, LEE SMITH, Sr. Editor @ Weekly Standard
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/bahrain-bust_582134.html

There have 

going gets tough.

The only warrant in Jones is Saudi emboldening—but kickout causes worse brutality
Trombly 11—Daniel, GWU International Affairs student, "The unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet", June 11, Slouching Towards Columbia, http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

Arabia’s oil-rich 

offshore balancing works. 

SEABASING
Designs for seabasing capabilities don’t even exist-and can’t support full combat operations
Amol M Sabnis 4, Lt Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo -US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online: http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada520272.pdf
Sea Basing as a 

full-fledged system.

Seabasing collapses heg-causes counter-balancing coalitions
Amol M Sabnis 4, Lt Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo -US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online: http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada520272.pdf
Sea basing will 

 elements of national power.

Seabasing collapses U.S.-India relations-impacts are trade, terrorism, Asian stability, China war, prolif, and energy security  
Amol M Sabnis 4, Lt Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo -US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online: http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada520272.pdf

With one of the strongest militaries 

by conducting joint naval exercises. 

2AC—Israel Add On

Naval BMD in the Gulf key to deter Iranian missiles—prevents Israel strikes
Goure and Grant 9—Daniel, PhD, former Deputy Director of the International Security Program at the CSIS, and Rebecca, PhD, "US Naval Options for Influencing Iran", Lexington Institute, Report under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf

Iran also is seeking 

BMDS-capable ships armed with an insufficient quantity of missiles. 

Israel strikes cause nuclear WWIII
Reuveny 10—Rafael, PhD, Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University, "Unilateral Strike on Iran could trigger world Depression",op-ed distributed through McClatchy Newspaper Co, http://www.indiana.edu/~spea/news/speaking_out/reuveny_on_unilateral_strike_Iran.shtml

A unilateral Israeli 

spark World War III.

Bahrain-based BMD key to stabilize the entire Middle East—deters and de-escalates all conflicts
Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire, http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unstable-momentum-in-middle-east-causes-more-us-need-for-missile-defense-116674494.html

Today, for the first time 

defense makes our world safer.

 Democratic reform in Bahrain triggers democratization in Iran 

 Bhadrakumar 5-23-11  Career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service 

 Asia Times Online, Decoding Obama's Bahrain puzzle, M K Bhadrakumar, May 23, 2011 

 Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey. 

 The US sees the alchemy of Shi'ite… West in the present era of globalization. 

 Iranian democratization solves the nuclear program 

 Gerecht 10—Sr. Fellow @ the Foundation for Defense of Democracies 

 Iran, Beacon of Liberty?, New York Times, February 10, 2010 

 The impact of all this on Muslims everywhere….

 likely to earn as much

. 

 Iran is on the brink of nuclearization – risks global nuclear war and hegemony collapse 

 Kahlili 9-18—Former U.S. Intelligence Officer 

 Reza Kahlili, Must America Accept a Nuclear Iran?, September 18, 2011,  

 The dictators in Iran have been calling for the removal… the ensuing 

nuclear exchange

. 

 Bahrain is the litmus test for Obama credibility on Middle East diplomacy 

 Dorsey 11 Sr. Fellow @ Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies 

 What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter 

 So far, Messrs. 

Obama

 and Blatter have essentially… the right side of history. 

 Credibility is essential for successful smart power strategy 

 Armitage and Nye 7 (Richard L., Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power, The Tennessean, “Time for Smart Power”,  

 The world is dissatisfied with American… global challenges. We call this smart power. 

 Smart power is critical to stop cyber attacks 

 Barnett et al 9 (Roger, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island; Author, Asymmetrical Warfare: Today’s Challenge to U.S. Military Power, along with 30+ other specialists on smart power and asymmetric threats including over 10 PHD’s, “Employing Smart Power,” ) 

There is no better example

…. tools applicable to cybersecurity. 

 And, their defense doesn’t apply – a global coordinated is attack is coming in 2012 

 Daily Mail 11(“'Perfect storm' of cyber attacks could lead to global catastrophe on the scale of a pandemic, world leaders warned”, 1/17, ) 

Coordinated attacks

 on critical computer… nation states in future warfare.' 

 The threat of cyber warfare is real – multiple countries and terrorists are acquiring capabilities – increases the risk of nuclear major power wars and collapses agriculture and the power grid 

 Habiger 10 (Eugue, Retired Air Force General, Cyberwarfare and Cyberterrorism, The Cyber Security Institute, 2/1, p. 11-19) 

 However, there are reasons to believe that what…

 at risk of a major war

. 

 Cyber warfare ensures accidental nuclear war 

 Fritz 9 (Jason, Former Captain of the U.S. Army, July, Hacking Nuclear Command and Control, www.icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.doc) 

 The US uses the two-man… accusations between governments. 

All of these cards are already on the Wiki~~~~-~~~~-this is the updated organization/plan text = ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*~~~~*~~~~~~*~~*1AC~~~~*~~~~~~*~~*~~*~~*~~~(%%) = ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) === Advantage One—Civil War === === === === Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf~~~~-~~~~~~-~~-failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention~~~~-~~~~~~-~~-also crushes US credibility === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Jacobs 11—~~~(%%)June 1st, Joshua, ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) AND ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)There is no country affected by the Arab ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)political settlement, and in negating Iranian propaganda. === === === Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)WP 9/9~~~~-~~~~-~~~(%%)Washington Post, ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~*~~*AND~~*~~* ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~*~~*~~~~ ~~*~~* ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*its ~~*~~*~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)~~*~~*influence ~~*~~*~~~(%%)~~*~~*now~~*~~*~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) — ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)~~*~~*before the crisis~~*~~*~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in;" %)~~*~~* ~~*~~*~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)~~*~~*resumes.~~*~~* ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === Failure of dialogue risks ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*civil war~~*~~*~~~(%%) & escalation to a ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*Saudi-Iran war~~*~~*~~~(%%) which would ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*draw-in the U.S. and spread across the Middle East~~*~~*~~~(%%) === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Shaikh 11—~~~(%%)Salman, Director of the ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: ~~~~"Helvetica~~~~",~~~~"sans-serif~~~~";" %)AND ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: ~~~~"Helvetica~~~~",~~~~"sans-serif~~~~";" %) ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)While US and international attention is focused largely ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)been instrumental in creating or shaping till now. ~~~(% class="card" %) === That escalates === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Jain 11—~~~(%%)August, Ash, visiting ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %)~~*~~* ~~*~~* ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)As it looks for~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) plausibly deniable ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)ways to ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)AND ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === Civil war and instability in Bahrain puts the US base at risk and threatens the 5~~^~~^th~~^~~^ Fleet; Iranian influence in Bahrain crushes GCC defense cooperation === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)WSJ 11 ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) JULIAN E. BARNES, Wall Street Journal, FEBRUARY 18, 2011, U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~~~~/~~~~/online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)WASHINGTON—~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Unrest in Bahrain is putting ~~~(% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)the future of a key U.S. ally in doubt~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %), a microcosm of how the Middle East's roiling political landscape is challenging U.S. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)a former senior State Department official. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === Civil War ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*breaks the US-Bahrain security alliance~~*~~*~~~(%%) and ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)~~*~~*disrupts the US security network in the Gulf – the Crown Prince’s balanced policy is critical to stabilize Bahrain and keep the regime in power~~*~~*~~~(%%) === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Lippman~~~(%%) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)8-6~~~(%%)-~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)11~~~(%%) - Adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Why Bahrain is a U.S. ally, and why it needs to stay one, Thomas W. Lippman, August 06. 2011, Special to The Washington Post ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~~~~/~~~~/www.bendbulletin.com/article/20110806/NEWS0107/108060353/ ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The~~~(% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) U.S. position ~~~(% class="card" %) and hope for success. ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="tag" %) 5~~^~~^th~~^~~^ Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Cropsey 10~~~~-~~~~-~~~(%%)Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)American ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)maritime strategy ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)seapower surrendered slowly over decades. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) === ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)And perception of credible Iranian deterrence key to international security alliances and US power~~~(%%) === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Etzioni 11~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)As of the beginning of 2011 ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~/~~/ up to ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)its commitments~~~(%%) overseas~~/~~/~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)~~_~~_. ~~_~~_ ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) === Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction~~~~-~~~~~~-~~-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas P.M. ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Barnett 11~~~(%%) Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http:~~~~/~~~~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)It is worth first examining ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)for the Pacific Century now unfolding. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === Naval power independently solves great power wars === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Conway et al 7~~~(%%) [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http:~~~~/~~~~/www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf] ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% style="font-family: ~~~~"Garamond~~~~",~~~~"serif~~~~";" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)~~_~~_No other disruption~~_~~_ ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua; text-decoration: none;" %)~~_~~_ ~~_~~_ ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)~~_~~_enable~~_~~_~~~(%%)~~_~~_ extended ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)campaigns~~~(%%) ashore~~_~~_. ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) === ~~~(% class="texto1" %)Adventurism goes nuclear ~~~~-~~~~~~-~~- credible deterrence’s key to solve~~~(%%) === ~~~(% class="citenon-bold" %) ~~~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ben-Meir 7~~~(%%)—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance, ~~~(% class="citenon-bold" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)Feeling emboldened ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)dreads major U.S. punitive measures. === === === Fleet presence key to counter piracy === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Weitz 11—~~~(%%)Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, PhD from Harvard, "The US Military and Bahrain", 2/24, The Second Line of Defense, ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)The ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Bahrain~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) base ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)then return to the more secure mother ship. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) === ~~~(% class="underline" %)Piracy enables terrorist use of WMD~~~(%%) === ~~~(% class="tag" %) Luft and Korin 4—~~~(% style="font-size: 10pt;" %)Foreign Affairs, executive director of the Institute for Analysis of Global Security, Korin is the director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS and editor of Energy Security, "Terrorism Goes to Sea", November/December, ~~~(% class="tag" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)Pirates and Islamist terrorist groups ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)on the world economy~~~(% class="underline" %). ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === Extinction === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Toon et al 7~~~(%%) – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http:~~~~/~~~~/climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)To an increasing extent ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) physical outcomes. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="tag" %) American engagement with Bahraini civil society prevents violent crackdowns that turn the Middle East into a powder keg—US involvement in democratic dialogue is key ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Aziz & Musalem 11~~~(%%)—~~~(% class="cardChar" %)Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan & Social Researcher in Bahrain ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement, Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011 ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~~~~/~~~~/ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The Saudi monarchy watched ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)it is in the United States’ national interes~~~(%%)t. ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) === Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal that results in democratic reform sufficient to block Iranian influence in the Gulf === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Aneja 11~~~(%%)—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu” ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~~~~/~~~~/www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2808/stories/20110422280802400.htm ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)blazing Bahraini ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)revolt ~~~(%%)for democracy ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)~~/~~/has~~/~~/~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)apparently ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) the most serious threat to the conservative royalty. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="text-decoration: none;" %) == 1AC—Advantage Two—Economy == === Unconditional US support for democratic reforms in Bahrain necessary to bolster the Crown Prince, bring the opposition to the table, and trigger genuine democratic reform === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Leigh 6-8-11~~~(%%)—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) The U.S. and Bahrain: ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) , Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~~~~/~~~~/www.time.com/ ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) 0,8599,2076559,00.html ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The ~~~(% class="underline" %)U.S. government's ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)aim~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) this ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="text-decoration: none;" %)~~/~~/ ~~/~~/ ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) and tear gas stops raining down on Manama. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) === The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible; the power struggle between the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister is critical to solidify US security interests in the Gulf and economic reform in Bahrain === ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ulrichsen 11~~~(%%) – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?, ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) The security services’ takeover of Pearl Roundabout – ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) firmly on the world map in recent years. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === Strengthening the Crown Prince is key to Bahrain’s economic diversification === ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ulrichsen 9~~~~-~~~~-~~~(%%)Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) AND ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009 ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) These results confirmed the findings of an ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)AND ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)margin for~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) future ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)delays to~~~(%%) the ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)reform~~~(%%) process. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) === Bahrain is the lynchpin of Gulf economic diversification—modeled by the GCC === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Marone 9—~~~(%%)David Paul Jr., Captain ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: ~~~~"Helvetica~~~~",~~~~"sans-serif~~~~";" %)AND ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: ~~~~"Helvetica~~~~",~~~~"sans-serif~~~~";" %) ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)On the verge of expiring oil reserves, ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)tailored to specific countries and their needs.67 ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) === Rentier mentality guarantees resource/water wars === ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ulrichsen 9~~~~-~~~~-~~~(%%)Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) AND ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009 ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Issues of infrastructure~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) security and access to basic ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)ethnic~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %), tribal or sectarian ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)groups~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) within society. ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) === Escalates internationally === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Postel ~~~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)1~~~(%%) – Sr. Fellow @ Worldwatch ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) AND ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Wolf, Foreign Policy, September 18, 2001 ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Others argue, however, that when it ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)prevent the eruption of violence and political instability? ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="tag" %) Spreads nuclear wars across Asia ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Morgan 7~~~(%%) - Labour Political Analyst – 2007 ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) "Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) J. Morgan, 06/03/2007 ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Strong centrifugal forces have always bedevilled the stability ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)and other deadly ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)weapons~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) secrets by Al Qaeda. ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) === Civil instability in Bahrain undermines investment cred of GCC economies === ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ulrichsen 11—~~~(%%)Kirstain Coates, "Bahrain ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) AND ~~~(% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Finally, ~~~(% class="underline" %)developments in ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Bahrain highlight~~~(%%) the ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)dangers ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)AND ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)firmly on the world map in recent years. ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) === Gulf economic stability key to emerging market trade === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)MFR 11~~~~-~~~~-~~~(%%)MENA Fund Review, bi ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~~~~"Segoe Print~~~~";" %)AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~~~~"Segoe Print~~~~";" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)ENORMOUS growth in emerging markets~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) in recent years ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)will be competition going forward~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %),” she adds. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) === That’s key to Chinese growth and preventing world economic collapse === ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Bloomberg 10~~~~-~~~~-~~~(%%)"Rising intra-emerging market ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) AND ~~~(% class="cardtext" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The high-speed rail~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) link ~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)China~~~(%%) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Railway ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)biggest exporter to the Middle East~~~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) in 2008~~~(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)~~*~~*.~~*~~* ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === ~~~(% class="cite" %)Global economic crisis causes nuclear great-power war~~~(%%) === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Mead 9~~~(%%) – Walter Russell Mead, the ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) 4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2 ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)If current market turmoil seriously damaged the performance ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)track, we may~~~(%%) still ~~~(% class="boldunderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)have to fight~~~(%%). ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === China’s economic collapse causes CCP instability and lashout - === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Mead 9~~~(%%) Walter Russell Mead, Henry A ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) 571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8 ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The ~~~(% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)greatest danger~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) both ~~~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)to ~~~(% class="Box" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)U.S ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)AND ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)knows what will happen if the growth stops~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) === Chinese lashout goes nuclear === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) The ~~~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Epoch~~~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) ~~~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Times~~~(%%), Renxing San, 8 ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) 5-8-4/30931.html ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% class="underline" %)Since the Party’s life is “above all ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND ~~~(% class="card" %) ~~~(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)billion people hostage and gamble with their lives. ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(% class="cardtext" %) ~~~(% class="Box" style="text-decoration: none;" %) == PLAN == ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) === The United States Executive should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain === === === ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~~~(% class="MsoNormal" %) == ~~~(% style="text-decoration: none;" %) ~~~(%%) ==

~\~\

2AC—Cred Add-On
US must take the lead in Bahrain - status quo exacerbates perceptions of Obama weakness
Washington Times 11, “Obama’s Gulf in leadership”, March 16, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/16/obamas-gulf-in-leadership/
Bahrain’s rulers seem 

is growing weaker.

That’s key to solving global stability - Russia lashout - and it accesses their Korea impact
Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply
BC: Are we 

quite knows whom it will bite or when.

Ensures nuclear escalation-collapses global security
Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear 

neighbors or their own people.172

~\~\

2AC—China Add-On
5th Fleet key to deter Chinese militarization and string of pearls strategy
Townshend 11—Ashley, Research Associate in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Real Clear World, "Few Reasons to Fear China's 'Pearls'", May 26, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/05/26/few_reasons_to_fear_china_pearls_99534.html

What, then, would be the strategic 

on its Indian Ocean objectives.

String of Pearls causes arms races and nuke war—boosts Indian fears of Pakistani and Chinese cooperation
Sayler 7/22—Kelley, CSIS research assistant, MA Baylor, “Nuclear Stability in South Asia”, 201 ,http://csis.org/blog/nuclear-stability-south-asia

The convergence of a 

could exacerbate fears of a disarming first strike, thereby driving

2AC—Green Tech Add On
Civil war causes investor flight—destroys Bahrain’s banking hub
ICG 11—International Crisis Group, POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM, Middle East/North Africa Report N°111 – 28 July 2011
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf

In a similarly risk-averse fashion, however, 

a and other GCC members. 

Bahrain key to green tech and renewable transition – economic diversification internal link
Tamminen 11Cullman Senior Fellow for Climate Change and Director of the Climate Policy Program at the New America Foundation, The Next China?, Terry Tamminen, May 18, 2009

Two weeks ago I visited Bahrain, an island in the middle of the Persian Gulf that is widely regarded as the Switzerland of the Middle East. This amazing little country gets only about 15% of its revenues from 

or taking your next vacation.

Warming causes extinction - outweighs everything
The New York End Times 6-The New York End Times is a non-partisan, non-religious, non-ideological, free news filter. We monitor world trends and events as they pertain to two vital threats - war and extinction. We use a proprietary methodology to quantify movements between the extremes of war and peace, harmony and extinction. http://newyorkendtimes.com/extinctionscale.asp

We rate Global Climate 

also need to incorporate the dangers here . 

2AC—Israel Add On
Naval BMD in the Gulf key to deter Iranian missiles—prevents Israel strikes
Goure and Grant 9—Daniel, PhD, former Deputy Director of the International Security Program at the CSIS, and Rebecca, PhD, "US Naval Options for Influencing Iran", Lexington Institute, Report under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf

Iran also is seeking to 

with an insufficient quantity of missiles. 

Israel strikes cause nuclear WWIII
Reuveny 10—Rafael, PhD, Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University, "Unilateral Strike on Iran could trigger world Depression",op-ed distributed through McClatchy Newspaper Co, http://www.indiana.edu/~spea/news/speaking_out/reuveny_on_unilateral_strike_Iran.shtml

A unilateral Israeli strike 

could ultimately spark World War III.

Prince Add On—Emerging Market Trade

Strengthening the Crown Prince is key to Bahrain’s economic diversification

Ulrichsen 9Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009

 These results confirmed the findings of an earlier study ….delays to the reform process.

That’s modeled—that’s the 1AC Ulrichsen evidence

Key to emerging market trade

MFR 11MENA Fund Review, bi-monthly print and online publication covering Middle East and North african asset management industries, August 4th, "The Emerging New Order", 2011,

ENORMOUS growth in emerging markets in …

will be competition going forward,” she adds.

Prevents economic collapse

Bloomberg 10"Rising intra-emerging market trade and investment creating new momentum", SImon Kennedy and Matthew Bristow, August 8,

The high-speed rail link China Railway …

of what’s going on in the West.”

~\~\

1AC—Oklahoma BC 

The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain

Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements
Levine 11Mark, professor of history
AND 

It took until Hosni Mubarak was safely in 

of learning from mistakes in the immediate past ?

Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war
John Guardiano 11, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring

There is, after all, a democratic 

in Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. Now.

That’s key to solve global problems—builds
AND
and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars
Stanley 7—Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.
AND


How important is soft power, anyway?  
AND
will be necessary to address such threats effectively. 

That eliminates the only rational incentives for war
Gartzke 11 Erik Gartzke is an associate Professor
AND
-in-an-insecure-world/
Almost as informative as the decline in warfare
AND 

prevail, that war becomes a durable anachronism. 

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy-best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient and globalization sustainable-it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war
Owen 11 John M. Owen Professor of
AND
-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/
Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the Human 

and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.

Shocks to the democratic system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves
JOHN HORGAN 9 is Director of the Center
AND
com/id/225616/page/1

The economic crisis was supposed to increase violence 

something like it may finally come to pass.
American engagement with Bahraini civil society prevents violent crackdowns—US involvement in constitution-building is key
Aziz & Musalem 11—Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan &  Social Researcher in Bahrain
Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens
AND
Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011
http://ispu.org/pdfs/
AND
Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one 

it is in the United States’ national interest. 

Racialized hatred drives American cultural attitudes towards Islam
AND
elimination-global cultural engagement is key to solving
Garrett 11 Dr. Greg Garrett, professor
AND
18-2011.html?print=1
Earlier this year, one of my favorite 

/11, that remains an essential need.
Islamophobia isn’t an essential or unified idea-
AND
political effects at both the macro and micro level
Poynting & Mason 7 Scott Poynting is Senior
AND
" Journal of Sociology 2007 43: 61 SAGE
Like all ideology, the demonization of Islam 

first Crusade' (O'Brien, 2000: 1).

This form of racialized hatred will manifest itself in mass violence cultural protectionism
Hermann 9/10 Lynn Hermann Digital Journal
AND
www.digitaljournal.com/article/311358
Wealthy donors and conservative foundations comprise a small 

sharpness of the clash on the other side.

Student debates over MENA policy need to use
AND
causes the Iraq war and torture of terror suspects
Anderson 3 – Lisa Anderson, Dean of the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, former President of the Middle East Studies Association, November 2003, online: http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/871
Yet, there is far more that we 

Saudi Arabia or Egypt or the United States.

This has to take place in the policy realm-government responses to Middle East democratization are a crucial driver of cultural attitudes towards Islam and people of the MENA region-now is a key time to engage the discussion
Brookings 11 “What Does the American Public
AND
2011/0522_arab_awakening.aspx
In light of the divisive rhetoric that emerged 

to encourage support and sympathy for the uprisings.

Academic debates can affect policy
David Bukay 7 is a lecturer in the
AND
there-be-an-islamic-democracy
While time has proven Wright wrong, the
AND
explained in a September 2003 interview.[41]

US engagement is effective and key to democratic consolidation-the K results in disengagement and isolation that causes democratic backsliding, murderous authoritarianism, and triggers their backlash DA-and, the aff avoids the backlash DA
David J. Kramer 11 is president of
AND
american-isolationism-not-answer-2011
The debate about America’s world role recently has 

who argue that America should “come home.”

Blanket rejection of imperialism re-inscribes orientalist binaries and justifies the worst atrocities—US democratic engagement vital to recasting the relationship and responding to suffering  
Ray Kiely 95 Lecturer in Development Studies,
AND
Vol. 25 No. 2 (1995)
Nevertheless, the point remains that conflict exists 

Bromley 1991; Brenner 1991: 134).

2AC—Oklahoma BC 

We internal link turn their arguments—they elevate whiteness to an all-pervasive force that explains nearly all global oppression-this conceptual expansion hides the actual practice of racism and makes breaking it down more difficult
Andersen 3 – Margaret L. Andersen, Professor of Sociology and Women's Studies and Vice Provost for Academic Affairs at the University of Delaware, 2003, “Whitewashing Race: A Critical Perspective on Whiteness,” in White Out: The Continuing Significance of Racism, ed Doane & Bonilla-Silva, p. 28
Conceptually, one of the major problems in the whiteness literature is the reification of whiteness as a concept, as an 

definition—but since whiteness has come to mean just about everything, it ends up meaning hardly anything.

Inclusion of pragmatic, reformist coalitions is the only way to make radical critiques of white supremacy politically effective-the alt alone fails and generates backlash
Winant 97 – Howard Winant, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center for New racial Studies at UC Santa Barbara, September-October 1997, “Behind Blue Eyes: Contemporary White Racial Politics,” online: http://www.soc.ucsb.edu/faculty/winant/whitness.html
Although the differences and indeed the hostility  between the neoliberal and abolitionist projects, between the reform-oriented 

you are, you don't know how American you are" (Thompson 1995, 429).v

White supremacy isn’t a monolithic root cause-proximate causes determined through empirics are more likely-and their arg shuts off productive debate over solutions  
Shelby 7 – Tommie Shelby, Professor of African and African American Studies and of Philosophy at Harvard, 2007, We Who Are Dark: The Philosophical Foundations of Black Solidarity
Others might challenge the distinction between ideological and structural causes of black disadvantage, on the grounds that we are 

developments (such as immigration policy or reduced federal funding for higher education).

Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to shape and improve the direction of policy and correct governmental mis-information-the K’s esoteric abstractions cedes the policy process to status-quo interests
Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/
Academics can make at least three distinct contributions to public discourse on global affairs. 

than the scholars who produce it might wish.

Effective deliberative discourse is the lynchpin to solving all existential social and political problems-a switch-side debate format that sets appropriate limits on argument to foster a targeted discussion is most effective-our K turns the whole case
Christian O. Lundberg 10 Professor of Communications @ University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, “Tradition of Debate in North Carolina” in Navigating Opportunity: Policy Debate in the 21st Century By Allan D. Louden, p311

The second major problem with the 

increasingly complex world. 

The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain. === === === Bahrain is a litmus test for Obama’s commitment to Arab Spring—US inaction symbolizes American hypocrisy and undercuts democratic movements === 

Levine 11

Mark, professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, "Here we go again: Egypt to Bahrain", Al Jazeera, Feb 18, 

It took until Hosni Mubarak 

…

mistakes in the immediate past ? 

Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war

 John 

Guardiano 11

, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18,  

There is

, after all, a 

democratic …Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. Now. 

That’s key to solve global problems—builds coalitions for leadership and prevents terrorism, environmental destruction, and wars 

Stanley 7—

Elizabeth Stanley, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government, 7 “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy” Sandia Report, 

How important is soft power, …

address 

such

 threats

effectively. 

• 
  
  •  === That eliminates the only rational incentives for war === 

Gartzke 11

 Erik Gartzke is an associate 

Prof

essor of political science 

at 

the 

U

niversity of 

C

alifornia, 

S

an 

D

iego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF "SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD" www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/ 

Almost as informative as the…

war becomes a durable anachronism

. 

Shocks to the democratic system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves

 JOHN 

HORGAN 9

 is Director of the Center for Science at Stevens Institute of Technology, former senior writer at Scientific American, B.A. from Columbia and an M.S. from Columbia “The End of the Age of War,” Dec 7  

The economic crisis was 

…something like it 

may finally come to pass

. 

 American engagement with Bahraini civil society prevents violent crackdowns—US involvement in constitution-building is key 

Aziz & Musalem 11

—

Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan & Social Researcher in Bahrain 

 Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement, Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011 

The Saudi monarchy watched in 

…

United States’ national interest. 

Racialized hatred drives American cultural attitudes towards Islam-Islamophobia is based on preconceived notions of the Middle East that authorize epistemic violence and essentialization of Muslims-it constructs Muslims as inhuman enemies of civilization justifying elimination-global cultural engagement is key to solving 

Garrett 11

 Dr. Greg Garrett, professor of English at Baylor University Ph.D. in English from Oklahoma State University "Fighting Islamophobia with Information" Aug 17 www.patheos.com/Resources/Additional-Resources/Fighting-Islamophobia-with-Information-Greg-Garrett-08-18-2011.html?print=1 

Earlier this year, 

one of my

 favorite ….that remains an essential need. 

Islamophobia isn’t an essential or unified idea-rather, it has synthetized differing conceptions of Islam into a variety of strategies for hatred and demonization-this has real cultural and political effects at both the macro and micro level 

Poynting & Mason 7 

Scott Poynting is Senior Lecturer in Sociology of Education at University of Western Sydney and Director of Centre West AND Victoria Mason is a Fellow at the Australian Centre, University of Melbourne. "The resistible rise of Islamophobia : Anti-Muslim racism in the UK and Australia before 11 September 2001" Journal of Sociology 2007 43: 61 SAGE 

Like all ideology

, the 

demonization of Islam

…since the first Crusade'

 (O'Brien, 2000: 1). 

This form of racialized hatred will manifest itself in mass violence cultural protectionism

Hermann 9/10

 Lynn Hermann Digital Journal"Report: Islamophobia ‘echoes past witch hunts’ in US history" Sept 10 2011 www.digitaljournal.com/article/311358 

Wealthy donors and 

conservative …

to the values of religious liberty

. 

American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down the clash of civilization discourse that causes Islamophobia

-empirics prove that effective democracy promotion disaggregated from hard-line Iraq-style invasion has a positive effect-and, even if it doesn’t succeed it’s productive to advocate and debate

 SHIBLEY 

TELHAMI 5

, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley 

I think we all agree that, 

no 

…

the clash on the other side

. 

 Student debates over MENA policy need to use empirical evidence to assess likelihood of policy success-this spills over to better policymaking-failure to embrace this framework creates a policy vacuum that’s filled with conservative ideology which causes the Iraq war and torture of terror suspects 

Anderson 3

 – Lisa Anderson, Dean of the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, former President of the Middle East Studies Association, November 2003, online:  

Yet, there is far more that we 

…

or Egypt or the United States. 

Reject infinite root causes—democracy and deterrence key to peace

 John 

Moore 4

 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis 

If

major interstate war is ….

of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased? 

US engagement is effective and key to democratic consolidation-the K results in disengagement and isolation that causes democratic backsliding, murderous authoritarianism, and triggers their backlash DA-and, the aff avoids the backlash DA

 David J. 

Kramer 11

 is president of Freedom House, a nonprofit democracy watchdog organization, 

and

 Arch 

Puddington

 is the director of research at the Freedom House. "Cold War shows American isolationism not the answer in 2011" Aug 04 2011 www.alaskadispatch.com/article/cold-war-shows-american-isolationism-not-answer-2011 

The debate about America’s

 world ….

America should “come home.” 

Blanket rejection of imperialism re-inscribes orientalist binaries and justifies the worst atrocities—US democratic engagement vital to recasting the relationship and responding to suffering

 Ray 

Kiely 95

 Lecturer in Development Studies, University of East London. “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism” Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 25 No. 2 (1995) 

Nevertheless, 

the point remains that 

….in return for military protection (Stork and Lesch 1990; Bromley 1991; Brenner 1991: 134). 

2ac case

 === === === 

Their alternative author

 concedes that citizen motivated U.S. action is necessary to consolidate democratic revolutions in the Middle East – external 

imposition of order

 on democratic change 

is revolutionary

Hallward 11

—Professor @ Centre for Research in Modern European Philosophy at Kingston University 

Arab uprisings mark a turning point for the taking 

 These 

new means of accessing

…. 

that it will only prevail 

if we allow it to. === === 

2ac kritik

 === Role of the ballot is democractic engagement over the Arab Spring is key to reverse the monopoloy on information that is controlled by politicians in the government— === === === === Academic engagement with the politics of the Middle East do concretely influence American institutions and triggers concrete change on the ground in Libya === 

BYU Political Review 11 

 Libya, Qaddafi, and the Postmodern Revolution, Bryce Johnson, August 4, 2011 

 Few pundits have explored ….there’s a revolution underway. === === === === === Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to shape and improve the direction of policy and correct governmental mis-information-the K’s esoteric abstractions cedes the policy process to status-quo interests === 

Walt 11

 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online:  

Academics can

make

 at least three 

….

produce it might wish

. 

Provisional truth and meaning are possible

Ferris 92

Timothy, Emeritus Prof @ Berkeley & Fellow at American Association for the Advancement of Science, The Mind's Sky: Human Intelligence in a Cosmic Context 

This is not to say

that 

every opinion 

….

"

so let's find out about it

." 

Democratic engagement is vital to recalibrate imperialist representations

-the aff’s politics of goodwill and disavowal of authoritarianism through unconditional aid is crucial to break down cultural protectionism and create avenues for cultural hybridity-the alt alone reinscribes orientalism by presuming that the Arab world can’t accept aid without being manipulated. 

 Dr Larbi 

Sadiki 11

 is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004). "The mathematics of the Arab Spring" Jun 6 2011 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html 

Egypt and Tunisia are now …. 

for the purpose of self-empowerment

. 

The United States Executive Branch should provide substantial advisory support for constitutional reform for Bahrain

Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf-failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention-also crushes US credibility

Jacobs 11—

June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs, 

There is no country affected …. 

and in negating Iranian propaganda. 

Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization

WP 9/9

Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now", 2011, 

BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the Arab … 

now

 — 

before the crisis

resumes. 

Bahrain instability puts the base at risk and destabilizes the Middle East

WSJ 11 

 JULIAN E. BARNES, Wall Street Journal, FEBRUARY 18, 2011, U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base 

WASHINGTON—

Unrest 

in Bahrain 

is putting 

…. 

Abrams, a former senior State Department official. 

Civil war makes the base untenable

Lippman

8-6

-

11

 - Adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute 

 Why Bahrain is a U.S. ally, and why it needs to stay one, Thomas W. Lippman, August 06. 2011, Special to The Washington Post 

The

 U.S. position could become …his quest

 and hope for success. 

 5^th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony 

Cropsey 10

Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, 

American 

maritime strategy 

has 

played 

… 

seapower surrendered slowly over decades. 

Perception of credible deterrence key to US hegemony

Etzioni 11

—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, 

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni …

live up to 

its commitments

 overseas

.  

Naval power independently solves great power wars

Conway et al 7

 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, ] 

No other disruption is as

 potentially 

…enable

 extended 

campaigns

 ashore. 

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

 Thomas P.M. 

Barnett 11

 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7  

It is worth first examining the larger … 

for the Pacific Century now unfolding. 

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang & Shi 11

 – Yuhan Zhang, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Lin Shi, Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and consultant for the World Bank, January 22, 2011, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” East Asia Forum, online:  

Over the past two decades, no other state has … 

inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy. === === === Trade eliminates the only rational incentives for war === 

Gartzke 11

 Erik Gartzke is an associate 

Prof

essor of political science 

at 

the 

U

niversity of 

C

alifornia, 

S

an 

D

iego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF "SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD" www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/ 

Almost as informative as …. 

that 

war becomes a durable anachronism

. 

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy-best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable-it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen 11

 John M. Owen 

Prof

essor of Politics 

at

 University of 

Virginia 

PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/ 

Andrew 

Mack and his colleagues

 at … 

support for liberal democracy remains strong. 

Absolute decline means the US will become uncooperative and desperate-hegemonic wars will ensue

Goldstein 7

 Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 & 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682 

Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical …

prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 

The rise of the rest is inevitable, but absolute US power makes the transition safe-the alt is transition wars

Walton 7

 Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in Reading, England, 07 [Dale C, “geopolitics and the great powers in the twenty-first century”, #38;source=gbs_navlinks_s#v=onepage&q=&f=false 

Although international political conditions will …

minimize the probability of a great power war

. 

Shocks to the democratic system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves

 JOHN 

HORGAN 9

 is Director of the Center for Science at Stevens Institute of Technology, former senior writer at Scientific American, B.A. from Columbia and an M.S. from Columbia “The End of the Age of War,” Dec 7  

The economic crisis was supposed to …. 

like it 

may finally come to pass

. 

Solvency:

 Bahrain is CALLING for US mediation for democratic solutions—solves violence that turns the ME into a powder keg 

Aziz & Musalem 11

—

Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan & Social Researcher in Bahrain 

 Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement, Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011 

The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as …. 

lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interes

t. 

Unconditional US support bolsters the Crown Prince and brings the opposition to the table

Leigh 6-8-11

—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times 

 The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time 

,8599,2076559,00.html 

The 

U.S. government's 

aim

 this week 

was to 

…. 

of talks are kept, and tear gas stops raining down on Manama. 

Regime is shifting towards reform—US support empowers moderates to spur constitutional reform

Ulrichsen 11

 – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E. 

 OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.
 

The security services’ takeover of Pearl Roundabout – which ….. 

States so firmly on the world map in recent years. 

Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal

Aneja 11

—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu” 

 Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope 

The 

blazing Bahraini 

revolt 

for democracy 

… 

most serious threat to the conservative royalty. 

Constitutional reform in Bahrain critical to reduce the

risk of sectarian conflict throughout the Middle East 

– === 

Diwan 11—

Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd, 

The

 rival 

rallies

 held on February 21 by ….. 

Arabia 

for its hard-line message

. 

Unconditional US support for democratic reforms in Bahrain necessary to bolster the Crown Prince, bring the opposition to the table, and trigger genuine democratic reform Leigh 6-8-11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time ,8599,2076559,00.html The U.S. government's aim ….stops raining down on Manama. The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible; the power struggle between the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister is critical to solidify US security interests in the Gulf and economic reform in Bahrain Ulrichsen 11 – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E. OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.
 The security services’ takeover …world map in recent years. Strengthening the Crown Prince is key to Bahrain’s economic diversification Ulrichsen 9Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009 These results confirmed the findings of an earlier …delays to the reform process. That encourages green tech and renewable transition Tamminen 11Cullman Senior Fellow for Climate Change and Director of the Climate Policy Program at the New America Foundation, The Next China?, Terry Tamminen, May 18, 2009 Two weeks ago I visited Bahrain, an island …business or taking your next vacation. That gets modeled by the GCC - Bahrain is the lynchpin of Gulf economic diversification Marone 9—David Paul Jr., Captain in the United States Army, BS James Madison University, Naval Postgraduate School Thesis, submitted for a Master of Arts in National Security Affairs, "The US Footprint on the Arabian Peninsula: Can We avoid a repeat of the pullout from Saudi Arabia?", On the verge of expiring oil reserves, Bahrain …tailored to specific countries and their needs.67 Solves regional interest in nuke power and prolif Merav Datan 8, international lawyer and a former adjunct professor at Rutgers Law School & a board member of the Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, “Nuclear futures for the Middle East: impact on the goal of a weapons of mass destruction-free zone”, Energy security for the …developed and can be built upon.24 Now’s key - Gulf countries are pursuing nuclear power to fulfill energy needs Anissa Haddadi 9-29, Financial Times, “Saudi Arabia Turns To Nuclear Energy as Consumption Increases and Oils Runs Out”, Saudi Arabia plans to spend …Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Causes destabilizing prolif and terrorism - goes nuclear Henry Sokolski 10, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, “Controlling the Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons”, CFR’s International Institutions and Global Governance Program, April 2010, If even a portion of this civilian …highly explosive, but nuclear.  Prolif causes extinction Martin Hellman 2008, Prof Emeritus of Engineering @ Stanford, “Defusing the Nuclear Threat: A Necessary First Step,” Nuclear deterrence has …namely the failure rate of deterrence. High risk of miscalc and accidents - Cold War deterrence fails Gareth Evans 9, President of the International Crisis Group & Former Foreign Minister of Japan (Co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament and Professorial fellow in the School of Social and Political Sciences @ University of Melbourne) & Yoriko Kawaguchi (Co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament), “Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers,” International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, December 15, 2009, pg. reference/reports/ent/ downloads.html Ensuring that no new states …cross-cutting sources of conflict.

~\~\

The United States Executive Branch should transfer substantial expertise support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain

 Civil War inevitable—plan is key to stability that prevents Saudi overreaction and prolif—plan quells tensions—Iran/Saudi war leads to nuclear arms race 

 Saudi relations will implode—US veto on Palestine 

AL 11—Arabia Link, Newsletter: "Is There a Showdown at the UN Looming for Saud-US Relations?", June 13th, 

Last month 

…

 … inaction will deepen the isolation of Israel

.” 

 Plan turns the D/A 

faster

—inevitable crackdowns ignite Shia radicalism that destabilizes Saudi Arabia 

Lippman 11—Daniel, "WikiLeaks: Saudi Crackdown on Shiites Has Echoes of Human Rights Abuses in Bahrain", June 23rd, Common Dreams, published by McClatchy, 

Middle Eastern experts … 

will be an outcome

." 

 Saudi crackdown forces Washington to 

abandon

 the alliance 

Bandow 11—Doug, senior fellow at the CATO Institute, former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, "Riyadh Scores One for Tehran", The National Interest, March 21, 

So far the Saud monarchy looks resilient, but 

…. 

devotion to liberal international norms? 

 Relations 

unshakable

—defense and military ties, private assurances 

Teitelbaum 7/17

—Joshua, Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv U. Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan U. PhD, Tel Aviv U, 17 July 2011, Joshua, Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities,

The Saudis are 

truly 

angry at 

the 

Obama

 …. 

 threatened by some Saudi officials. 

 No Saudi prolif 

Lippman 11—

Thomas W., senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, August 5th, "Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Policy", Saudi-US Relations Information Service, 2011, 

It is highly unlikely

, however, 

that Saudi Arabia … 

internationally supervised region 

free of all w

eapons of 

m

ass 

d

estruction. 

Fleet checks all escalation—BMD 

Ellison 11—

Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire, 

Today, 

for the first time in thirty …. 

defense makes our world safer. 

Saudis would 

never

 break relations over Bahrain 

Dietz 11—

journalist for The Mideaster, "Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?" 4/21/11 

Would

 pressure from 

Bahrain cause the ….current strategic relations with the US. 

 Plan solves Iranian prolif—Obama cred and sanctions—that’s Goodspeed 

 That’s the only scenario for Saudi prolif 

Amlin 8—

Kate, "Will Saudi Arabia Acquire Nuclear Weapons?", James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, August, NTI Issue Brief, Monterey Institue of International Studies, 

Many analysts hypothesize that 

Saudi Arabia 

would 

… 

weapons this may change

,

 as will be discussed below. 

1ar saudi 

 Gulf perceptions of US relative power key to heg—commitments and credibility are key 

Alterman 11

Jon B., director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at the CSIS, former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the US Department of State, PhD from Harvard, Professor at GWU, "Fierce or Free: Persian Gulf Assessments of US Power", June, 

Whatever the actual cost, and even if the durable U.S. … 

it in order to advance their own interests. 

Political pressure forces the US to leave—ALL of their ev is from the “military” Tomlinson 11—Sr. Writer for MEED; Middles East Business Intelligence 

US fleet may quit troubled Bahrain, Hugh Tomlinson, The Australian, July 21, 2011 12:00AM 

THE

 US 

Navy is looking at plans to … 

signalled it was ready to move

. 

 Kickout causes Iran emboldening 

Smith 11

Sr. Editor @ Weekly Standard—The Bahrain Crack-Up, Aug 8, 2011, LEE SMITH, Sr. Editor @ Weekly Standard 

There have been rumors

 afloat the last few …

when the going gets tough. 

 That’s the only scenario for Saudi prolif 

Amlin 8—

Kate, "Will Saudi Arabia Acquire Nuclear Weapons?", James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, August, NTI Issue Brief, Monterey Institue of International Studies, 

Many analysts hypothesize that 

Saudi Arabia 

would 

… 

this may change

,

 as will be discussed below. 

Malka 11

 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

More broadly, 

U.S. indecision and …

Israel and the United States

. 

 Israel won’t strike 

Benn 11—editor-in-chief for Haaretz Newspaper. MBA from NU (Aluf, Mubarak's departure thwarted Israeli strike on Iran, 13 Feb. 2011,  

Most Israelis were either born or immigrated to this … 

to have been his last contribution to regional stability. 

 Relations resilient and will survive Bahrain disagreement—empirics prove 

Zeigler 11—Lucien, Research Director at the Saudi-US Trade Group, Managing Director at The Lagat Group, LLC, "Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After 'Arab Spring'?", March 18, Information Chaos, 

The long history of the so-called “special … 

clear example of win-win. 

2ac T

 === === === We meet—Advice is material—reject their interp because it’s impossible to quantify what “material” is === 

 Peter 

Burnell 2k 

is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author or editor of thirteen books, and has authored over 35 articles and many book chapters on democratisation, the political economy of foreign aid, and politics in Zambia. He is founding editor of the journal Democratization., Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization p8-9 

By comparison

democracy assistance

…

political reform, 

are probably more common. === === === USAID says provision of advice for constitutional democratization is T === 

 William P. 

Alford 2k

 Prof of Law @ Harvard 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677 lexis 

 C. Your Society Can Be Civil, Too: 

The Elements of Democracy Promotion 

Within

 the four nations that Carothers highlights, and …. 

democracy, economic success, and social stability. 

This solves limits and precision-it’s the best way to distinguish assistance from promotion

 Dinorah 

Azpuru 11

 is assistant professor of political science at Wichita State University and member of the Advisory Group of the Americas, “The Promotion of Democracy: Actors and Methods” in Achieving Democracy: Democratization in Theory and Practice 

Burnell and Randall

 (2008, 283) 

identify three … 

assistance, is emphasized in this chapter.

 CP doesn’t solve— 1) The Fleet—question of Anti-Americanism kicking the US out NYT 11—New York Times, "Dim View of US Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites is Described", 2/21, Michael Slackman, 

 The United States military undermined efforts to improve … government official in Bahrain who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media. 

 2) Obama credibility—collapses heg and causes nuclear war—means the CP can’t solve because the regime won’t compromise if they think the US is in their pocket Leigh 11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time ,8599,2076559,00.html 

 On Tuesday — just seven days after his country lifted 13 weeks of … on protesters, which this week saw security forces repeatedly attack Shi'a enclaves with rubber bullets and tear gas 

 3) Democratic Negotiations—US support gives Prince political clout to moderate the regime—means CP negotiations fail because hardliners take over—that’s Leigh 

 EU has no political leverage or democracy program Fakhro 9—E.A, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, "The European Union and Islam: Democracy Promotion in Bahrain and the Arab World", 

 4. The European Union: A Role in … of the EU in the GCC and the Arab world. 

 EU alienates the opposition – historical perceptions Emerson & Youngs 7

Saban Center & Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior Michael Emerson and Richard Youngs, eds., Political Islam and European Foreign Policy (Brussels: CEPS, 2007), Number 18, January 2009, Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach, Tamara Cofman Wittes Saban Center at Brookings Richard Youngs Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior  

 In dealings with some states, … on promises to support democratization.30 

 No impact to EU cred—disintegration inev Walt 9/18—IR, Harvard (9/18/11, Stephen, The coming erosion of the European Union, walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/18/the_coming_erosion_of_the_european_union) I gave a talk in Washington the other day about the future of the EU and transatlantic relations more generally, and I thought FP readers might be interested in what I had to say. Here's a short summary of what I said. 

 I began with the rather obvious point that … . Hence my belief that the heyday of European political integration is behind us. AT: EMORY BLACK SEA NB No risk—extensive cooperation and stable regimes in the squo Garber the rest of the article 8 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. ] In order to promote cooperation in our focus AND in the strategic interest of the United States.

 AT: High Oil Prices Good/Warming DA 

 Our arg is that price shocks and volatility are bad

-unpredictable prices jack renewables investment Singer 8 – Clifford Singer, professor in the Departments of Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering and of Political Science, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, January 2008, “Oil and Security,” Stanley Foundation Policy Analysis Brief, online: 

 A longer-term problem with large … efficiency and production of alternatives to oil imports are to be effective. 

 Crackdown tanks Bahrain’s economy—that’s Aziz 

 Bahrain key to renewable transition Tamminen 11

Cullman Senior Fellow for Climate Change and Director of the Climate Policy Program at the New America Foundation, The Next China?, Terry Tamminen, May 18, 2009 

 Two weeks ago I visited Bahrain, an island in the middle of … a very special place for doing business or taking your next vacation. 

 No impact to warming Stossel 7 - John Stossel, Award-winning ABC News correspondent, 2007 The Global Warming Myth?, 

 Dr. John Christy, professor of Atmospheric Science … planet works, there wouldn't be as much money to study it."

2AC Credit DA Downgrade inevitable -the supercommitee will fail economic decline and political conflict prove. Reuters 9/27 (Reuters 9/27/11, "Moody's: Obama budget a plus but adoption unlikely," www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-usa-budget-moodys-idUSTRE78P2FW20110927) President Barack Obama's

but partisan differences may prevent this."


No impact to downgrade –it’s all political - investments will stay at the same level, perception Internal links should already be triggered, Petruno 11 (July 16, 2011 – Tom, markets columnist for The Times (U.S. AAA credit rating in jeopardy as risks get reality check, LA Times, Business Market Beat, , MCL) Nearly three years
s this year while the Dow Jones industrial average holds on to a 7.8% year-to-date gain.
Non unique – Libya assistance now Carothers, 9/15 (Thomas - VP at Carnegie Endowment, 9/15/11, “Building a New Libya”, How much
in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Egypt and Tunisia Al-Amin, 9/17 (Esam, 9/17/11 “Three Big Challenges Threatening the Arab Uprisings,” In its bill to fund
a direct interference in the internal affairs of sovereign nations.
Super Committee failure’s likely and triggers downgrades Alexander 11 - Craig Alexander, SVP & Chief Economist TD Bank Group, August 8, 2011, “S&P DOWNGRADE OF U.S. CREDIT RATING CHANGES NOTHING,” online: In the United States,
proposals to address the fiscal deficit, and then new actions aimed at fiscal rebalancing will come in 2013.

Framework-2AC 

Role of the ballot is political engagement over US democracy policy 

American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down the clash of civilization discourse that causes Islamophobia and orientalism-empirics prove that effective democracy promotion disaggregated from hard-line Iraq-style invasion has a positive effect-and, even if it doesn’t succeed it’s productive to advocate 

SHIBLEY 

TELHAMI 5

, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley 

I think we all agree that, 

no matter how we … 

of the clash on the other side

. 

Key to fairness—infinite number of lenses to view debate—voting issue because it’s unpredictable and jacks aff ground—you should evaluate political consequences of the plan—life outweighs death—impossible to have meaning without existing first 

Permutation do both— 

There are an infinite number of indeterminate root causes that don’t proximately affect conflict-focus on 

strategic deterrence

• 
  
  • and 

democracy

 is all that’s key to averting crisis escalation-this is a reason to prefer our impacts and reject their turns case args 

John 

Moore 4

 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis 

If

major interstate war is predominantly ….

are dramatically increased or decreased? 

Logical limited conditionality is a voting issue—1) it makes no sense which screws 2AC strategy === Consequences key to evaluating MENA democracy policies-in the context of 

policy-making

 the 

only ethical

 stance is utilitarianism === 

Telhami 4 – Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of Maryland; Nonresident Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institution, October 15, 2004, online:  

And here 

I would put on the table 

the 

…

the point of view of international standards. 

Every study of credible social theories concludes consequentialism is good-Scientific studies of biology, evolution, and psychology prove that deontological proclivities are only illogical layovers from evolution 

Greene 10

 Joshua Greene Associate 

Prof

essor of the Social Sciences Department of Psychology 

Harvard

 University "The Secret Joke of Kant’s Soul" published in 

Moral Psychology: Historical and Contemporary Readings

, accessed: www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/lchang/material/Evolutionary/Developmental/Greene-KantSoul.pdf 

What turn-of-the-millennium science

… 

distinctive about 

the philosophy in question 

 Ontology focus bad 

 Majid 

Yar 2k

, Department of Sociology @ Lancaster University, ARENDT'S HEIDEGGERIANISM: CONTOURS OF A `POSTMETAPHYSICAL' POLITICAL THEORY?, Cultural Values Vol 1 Issue 1, Jstor 

The

 first

 and perhaps most readily

...practical and normative ends in the process. 

 Focus on epistemology is bad 

 Owen 2 [David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7] 

 Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that 

 feeds back into IR exacerbating the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises. 

 (Ontology/Epistemology) focus irrelevant—doesn’t affect our ability to make claims about the world—and, it cripples the alt by devolving into reductionism 

 Hellmann, Prof of Poli Sci, 9 [Gunther Hellmann is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at AICGS and a professor of political science at Goethe University, “Beliefs as Rules for Action: Pragmatism as a Theory of Thought and Action” International Studies Review, Volume 11, Issue 3, Pages 638-662] 

 While this is not the place for an in-depth analysis of 

 unhitches" human beings from "a useless structure of bad abstractions about thought" (Menand 1997:xi). 

 Their (epistemology/ontology) arguments don’t disprove our advantages—pragmatic reasoning and specificity prove our aff is good—the alt devolves into crippling political paralysis 

 Kratochwil, IR Prof @ Columbia, 8 [Friedrich Kratochwil is Assistant Professor of International Relations at Columbia University, Pragmatism in International Relations “Ten points to ponder about pragmatism” p11-25] 

 First, a pragmatic approach does not begin 

 phenomenon under investigation. 

 Ontological/epistemological questions don’t deny the truth of our advantages 

 SØRENSEN, Prof of IR, 98 [GEORG SØRENSEN, Professor of International Politics and Economics @ Aarhus Univ. “IR Theory after the cold war” Review of International Studies (1998), 24 : 83-100 Cambridge University Press] 

 What, then, are the more general problems 

 project.28 

 Extinction outweighs ontology 

 Jonas 96 [Hans, Former Alvin Johnson Prof. Phil. At the New School for Social Research & Former Eric Voegelin Visiting Prof. at U. Munich, *do not agree with gendered language, Mortality and Morality: A Search for the Good after Auschwitz, pg 111-2 

 With this look ahead at an 

 determining what action to take. With this confession of faith we come to the end of our essay ontology.

2AC-SKFTA No Asia War Vannarith 10—Executive Director of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace. PhD in Asia Pacific Studies, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific U (Chheang, Asia Pacific Security Issues: Challenges and Adaptive Mechanism,
Some people look to China for economic and AND are present and being improved in this region.

No PC—
Tax plan WSJ 9-17, “Obama to Propose Tougher Tax Regime for Wealthy”, The White House on Monday plans to launch
wouldn't require the wealthy to make major sacrifices. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R AND deductions as a way to spur job growth.

Disaster funding Deirdre Shesgreen 9-12, The CT Mirror, “Storm building over relief spending for Irene, other disasters”,
A political tempest is brewing over the Obama
balanced by cuts elsewhere in the federal budget.

Won’t pass—
China bashing Doug Palmer 9-2, Reuters, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall”, Still, Congress' approval of the South Korea, Colombia and Panama deals is not assured.
dampen Obama's appetite to lead aggressively on trade.

TAA amendments IUT 9/15Inside US Trade AND

Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Demetrios
against their interests, this business source speculated.

Case turns the impact—Etizoni evidence proves Iran posture is key to all security credibility—collapses South Korean alliance
Plan goes to the bottom of the docket—normal means for political implementation
Korea blocks The Dong-a Ilbo 9-10, “Penny wise and pound foolish “, Though Congress has accelerated efforts to ratify the
under the former Roh Moo-hyun administration.


Plan’s gain fuels gains in future capital Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3) Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their AND managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).
SKFTA doesn’t boost relations or the economy-impact on trade is insignificant Lee & Kim 9 Dong Sun Lee, AND 8/pages310681/p310681-1.php
Even accepting that economic ties can facilitate diplomatic AND make Seoul markedly more economically dependent on Washington.

2ac v Development K

-Blanket rejection of imperialism re-inscribes orientalist binaries and justifies the worst atrocities—US democratic engagement vital to recasting the relationship and responding to suffering 

Ray Kiely 95 Lecturer in Development Studies, University of East London. “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism” Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 25 No. 2 (1995)

Nevertheless, the point remains...protection (Stork and Lesch 1990; Bromley 1991; Brenner 1991: 134).

-Democratic engagement is vital to recalibrate imperialist representations-

Sadiki 11 is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004). "The mathematics of the Arab Spring" Jun 6 2011 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html

Egypt and Tunisia are now officially on the...nationality and ethnicity. It uses Western technological innovations for the purpose of self-empowerment.

-Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action

John Moore 4 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace,  44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis

If major interstate war is predominantly ...That is, what, in general, happens when a totalitarian state makes a transition to stable democracy or vice versa? And what, in general, happens when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

-No risk of their heg bad turns-US engagement and reintervention are inevitable-it’s only a question of making it effective-the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns

Robert Kagan 11 is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. "The Price of Power" Jan 24 Vol 16 No18 www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3

In theory, the United States could refrain from intervening abroad. But, in practice, will it? Many assume today that the American public has had it with interventions

The world is better off, and the United States is better off, in the kind of international system that American power has built and defended.

-Deterrence as source of onto-security’s key to acting against aggressive foreign policy

Amir Lupovici 8, Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto, Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse

Since deterrence can become...Furthermore, the ability to increase one dimension of security helped to enhance the other, since it strengthened the actors’ identities and created more stable expectations of avoiding violence.

No backlashShia LOOKING for US supportmake them read a card about BAHRAIN
NYT 11—New York Times, "Dim View of US Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites is Described", 2/21, Michael Slackman, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all

The United States military undermined efforts… speak to the news media.

US engagement is effective and key to democratic consolidation-the K results in disengagement and isolation that triggers their backlash DA  
David J. Kramer 11 is president of Freedom House, a nonprofit democracy watchdog organization, and Arch Puddington is the director of research at the Freedom House. "Cold War shows American isolationism not the answer in 2011" Aug 04 2011 www.alaskadispatch.com/article/cold-war-shows-american-isolationism-not-answer-2011

The debate about America’s world role… America should “come home.”

Declining hegemony doesn’t solve—perception of US leadership inevitable-it’s only a question of effectiveness
Boot 3  Max Boot Olin senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2003  “American imperialism? No need to run away from label” 5/5/ http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2003-05-05-boot_x.htm

The record of nation-building during the… We might as well be a successful empire.

~~\~~\

2AC/1AR—POLITICS 

The US dominates global clean tech-mass expansion coming now
Teryn Norris & Shenai 10 is a leading young policy strategist and serves as president and founder  of Americans for Energy Leadership. He studies public policy at Stanford University. Neil K. Shenai is a PhD Candidate at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced  International Studies (SAIS) studying the political economy of financial crises., Dynamic Balances: American Power in the Age of Innovation, SAIS Review, Volume 30, Number 2, Summer-Fall 2010, pp. 149-164 (Article) leadenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/SAISReview-AmericanPower-NorrisShenai-Nov2010.pdf
Case Study: Clean Energy Technology Innovation
Clean energy technology provides a useful case study
AND
and Texas ($170 million in  nineteen deals).

And, even if there’s open trade it’ll be slow and ineffective
MICHAEL LEVI 10 is Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, ELIZABETH C. ECONOMY is Senior Fellow for Asia Studies, SHANNON O'NEIL is Fellow for Latin America Studies, and ADAM SEGAL is Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Globalizing the Energy Revolution" Nov/Dec Foreign Affairs www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66864/michael-levi-elizabeth-c-economy-shannon-oneil-and-adam-segal/globalizing-the-energy-revolution
An open innovation system is essential to speeding
AND
something that developing countries have demanded for years.

Trade conflicts and protectionism don’t cause war or retaliation-no impact the economy or geopolitics
Fletcher 11 Ian Fletcher is Senior Economist of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, former Research Fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council M.A. and B.A. from Columbia and U Chicago, "Avoid Trade War? We're Already In One!" August 29 2011 www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/avoid-trade-war-were-alre_b_939967.html
The curious thing about the concept of trade
AND
our policy-making in the present day.

Aff:Northwestern BK

Round # 8 Tournament: Shirley

vs:Cal GW

Judge: Cram

Plan Text

 The United States Executive Branch should provide substantial expertise support to proponents of constitutional reform for Bahrain ====== 

1ac Advantages

Civil War -Fifth Fleet 

Energy 

2ac Offense

Fifth Fleet: Iran wars turns Saudi DA 

DA not solve Iranian missles ->Causes WW3 

 Energy: turns miscalc 

Solves terrorism 

PTX: Bottom docket 

Normal means 

Not intrinsic 

Thumpers 

Pressure CP: 

Base kickout 

Pressure triggers defiancy 

CP links to politics 

Conditionality bad 

Saudi DA: 

Prolife turns impact 

I/L solved on case to Pakistan 

Saudi crackdown w/o plan 

Your ev = political posturing 

1ar Strategy

Extended fifth fleet and energy 

Extended condo on cp 

New Ziggler ev: even if backlash they need us more than we need them 

Ptx: aid solves econ, budget rates not trigger means reason to reject argument, uniqueness overwhelms the link, no fiat conceded focus argument 

Saudi cross apps from case = destroyed disad 

2ar Strategy

No condo but same as 1ar strat

Aff: NU BK

Round # 5 Tournament: Wake

vs: Georgetown AM

Judge: Ryan Galloway

Plan Text

Constitutional reform in Bahrain 

1ac Advantages

Civil War/Base Kickout (Regional war, heg, Iran, GCC Prolif, NMD) 

Hezbollah ADV (Syria/Israel/Iran War, Nuke Terror) 

2ac Offense

Link Turned Politics 

Link Turned Saudi DA 

Obama Power Add-On (Russia Impact) 

1ar Strategy

Link Turn Saudi DA 

Extended Add-On 

2ar Strategy

Kicked Add-On

Aff: Northwestern BK

Round 1 Tournament: Shirley

vs: Louisville VW

Judge: Eddie Fitzgerald

Plan Text: The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain

1ac Advantages: ME Democracy + Spirit of the 1AC

2ac Offense: Individualism alone bad, perm combination of personal and political solves all forms of oppression, refusing to stop Bahrain crackdowns = bad, must use debate space to recognize the ways USFG promotes forms of violence and use democracy to create intersectional connections / cultural ties between people on an international level

1ar Strategy: Above, we have personal relationship to our AFF: describes narrative about his family in The Holocaust and Apartheid in Africa + Ryon being a woman in gendered debate structure, permutation solves

2ar Strategy: Above

 Team Name: Northwestern BK == === Round # Harvard Octas === === vs Team: Wake BC === === Judge: Dheidt, Polin, Pointer === 

Plan Text

 Constitutional assistance to Bahrain 

1ac w/ cites

 5^th Fleet (Heg, ME War, Iran) 

 Renewable Energy (Prolif) 

2AC Tricks, Add-Ons 

Oil Shocks Add-On based on Iran 

 Answers to Off-case Arguments 

Link Turned Politics 

 Answers to Major Case Arguments 

 1AR Strategy Notes 

 2AR Strategy Notes 

~~\~~\

Prediction is possible and accurate even if not perfect-game theory and political modeling can account for complex social systems by aggregating expertism-forecasting can provide an accurate basis for scenario planning especially for MENA revolutions
de Mesquita  11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/
Given what we know today …we progress toward better prediction.

Even if predictions in the abstract are wrong, policy debates that predict hypothetical outcomes and weigh evidence of the risk of those outcomes is productive
Tetlock & Gardner 11 Philip Tetlock is a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley, AND Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear, received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award, M.A. History from York, "OVERCOMING OUR AVERSION TO ACKNOWLEDGING OUR IGNORANCE" July 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-and-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-to-acknowledging-our-ignorance/
The optimists are right that …competitors on policy bets panning out.

Political modeling obviates critiques of expertism
de Mesquita  11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/
Good prediction—and this is my belief—…adaptation will be ongoing.

NU BK New Hezbollah ADV

Opposition extremism reaches out to Hezbollah—boosts credibility

FP 11

—Foreign Policy, Hussein Ibish, Foreign Policy, April 4, "Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?", 2011, ,1 

A campaign of violence by opposition 

…

 prudent manner to a violent security threat, however limited and symbolic? 

Boosts Hezbollah credibility

Jacobs 11—

June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs,  

Tehran 

also 

gains crucial ammunition 

…

 political settlement, and in negating Iranian propaganda. 

 Causes escalatory Middle Eastern war. 

 Marvin J. 

Cetron 7

 and Owen Davies, president of Forecasting International Ltd. and former senior editor at Omni magazine, 9-1-7 “Worst-case scenario: the Middle East: current trends indicate that a Middle Eastern war might last for decades,” The Futurist, 41, no. 5 

There is more to come. After all, 

this is the …fights

 everyone else 

for decades.

 Spills over to Iran, Israel and Syria. 

 David 

Aikman 7

, Ph.D., Professor, History, Patrick Henry College, Senior Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center, and Senior Fellow, Trinity Forum, 7-20-2007, Implications: A Journal from the Trinity Forum, Another Middle East War? P.  

But 

in the Middle East

 region, very 

few 

…

 certainly provoke an Israeli military response against Syria proper. 

 Israel-Syria war causes 

WMD escalation 

 Steven 

Leser 6

, specializes in Politics, Science & Health, and Entertainment topics & former District Chair and PR Chair within Democratic Party county organizations,7/30/06,  

A few years ago, 

Syria announced

 that 

it … compromised

, 

this includes Hezbollah and the Palestinians.

 === Causes WMD terrorism across the Mexico border === 

Pavlich 11

Katie, News Editor, Townhall, July 8, 2011, A Growing Terror Threat: Hezbollah in Latin America,  

When Americans think of terrorist…

American Foreign Policy Council Ilan Berman said. 

Extinction

Toon et al 7

 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online:  

To an increasing extent, 

people are congregating in …

 carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes. 

Unconditional US support for democratic reforms in Bahrain necessary to bolster the Crown Prince, bring the opposition to the table, and trigger genuine democratic reform

Leigh 6-8-11

—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times 

 The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time 

,8599,2076559,00.html 

The 

U.S. government's 

aim

 this week 

was to emphasize 

...

 of talks are kept, and tear gas stops raining down on Manama. 

The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible; the power struggle between the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister is critical to solidify US security interests in the Gulf and economic reform in Bahrain

Ulrichsen 11

 – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E. 

 OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.  

 The security services’ takeover of Pearl … the world map in recent years. 

Strengthening the Crown Prince is key to Bahrain’s economic diversification

Ulrichsen 9

Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009 

 These results confirmed the findings of an earlier …

delays to

 the 

reform

 process. 

Bahrain is the lynchpin of Gulf economic diversification—modeled by the GCC

Marone 9—

David Paul Jr., Captain in the United States Army, BS James Madison University, Naval Postgraduate School Thesis, submitted for a Master of Arts in National Security Affairs, "The US Footprint on the Arabian Peninsula: Can We avoid a repeat of the pullout from Saudi Arabia?",  

On the verge of expiring oil reserves, 

Bahrain has worked …

 can be tailored to specific countries and their needs.67 

Rentier mentality guarantees resource/water wars

Ulrichsen 9

Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow, Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalization in Gulf States, London School of Economics and Political Science, The Center for the Study of Global Governance, "Gulf security: Chaning Internal and External Dynamics", 2009 

Issues of infrastructure

 security and …

sectarian 

groups

 within society. 

Constitutional reform in Bahrain critical to reduce the

risk of sectarian conflict throughout the Middle East 

– the risks of reform failure outweigh the risks of democratization in Bahrain – failure there locks in and expands Iranian influence across the Middle East === 

Diwan 11—

Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd,  

The

 rival 

rallies

 held on February 21 by the …

 Arabia 

for its hard-line message

. 

Executive giving democracy assistance now

 Elliott 

Abrams

, 

11/8

/11, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies , “Secretary Clinton Discovers Human Rights”, 

Secretary 

Clinton’s speech said

 very many… on the achievements and the errors that came before

. 

Libya should trigger al disads

 Bradley 

Klapper

and

 Julie 

Pace

, Associated Press, 10/21/11, “US focused on Libyan democracy”, 

Even before Gadhafi's death, 

the US moved 

…government

 after four decades of dictatorship

. 

• 
  
  •  === And, there’s 

no chance

 that US support cools down === 

 Joe 

Wolverton

 II, 11/2/

11

, Writer for the New American, “President Obama's Role in the Arab Spring”, 

There is evidence that President Obama is … with a fundamentalist version of Sharia

. 

Bahrain meets the key conditions needed for a transition to constitutional monarchy - Constitutionalism in Bahrain

tempers sectarianism

, opens a route to 

preserve the monarchy

, acts as a 

safety

valve

 for Sunni fears. The 

pace of reform 

must be left to the Bahraini’s & a stable transition 

requires a reformer

 at the head of government and 

maximally inclusive representation

Mallat & Gelbort 11

Mallat is Professor of Islamic Legal Studies @ Harvard Law School & Gelbort studies at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy @ Harvard 

 VIRGINIA JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW, Volume 2 — Number 1 — Page 1, VJIL Online Essay, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Constitutional Options for Bahrain 

 It is against this complex background…

democratic demands of the Pearl Revolution.

GCC Impact to Basing ADV

 === Fleet kick-out causes UAE-Qatar tensions === 

Tomlinson 11

—Sr. Writer for MEED; Middles East Business Intelligence 

 US fleet may quit troubled Bahrain, Hugh Tomlinson, The Australian, July 21, 2011 12:00AM 

The US Navy 

has little desire …

 Bahrain. Britain has minesweepers, destroyers and a submarine based in Bahrain. 

Infighting derails the new US-GCC security alliance - it’s up for a vote in December

 THOM 

SHANKER 10-30

 and STEVEN LEE MYERS, NYT, “U.S. Planning Troop Buildup in Gulf After Exit From Iraq”, www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/world/middleeast/united-states-plans-post-iraq-troop-increase-in-persian-gulf.html?_r=2 

 Despite such concerns, 

the 

… ways that we should work together.” 

Solves GCC nuclearization

 Michael D. 

Purzycki 11-7

, masters candidate in global affairs at Rutgers University-Newark, “Living With a Nuclear-Armed Iran”, International Affairs Review,  

 Second, the 

U.S.

 should explore …

 of their own nuclear deterrents

. 

Prevents nuke war through miscalc, deterrence failures, and accidents

Edelman 11

—Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense—AND—Andrew Krepinevich—President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—AND—Evan Montgomery—Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric, The dangers of a nuclear Iran, FA 90;1,  

There is, however, at least 

one state

 that 

could …

 Great Game, with unpredictable consequences

. 

New GCC alliance’s key to effective missile defense and Israeli reassurance - perceived by Iran

 Simon 

Tisdall 10-31

, The Guardian, “America's new Middle East 'mini-Nato'”,  

 Hence the third pillar of the …

, unfortunately, in rationality and prudence". 

Israel strikes cause nuclear WWIII

Reuveny 10—

Rafael, PhD, Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University, "Unilateral Strike on Iran could trigger world Depression",op-ed distributed through McClatchy Newspaper Co,  

A unilateral Israeli strike

 on Iran’s

 nuclear …

spark World War III.

 Basing ADV 2AC 

 Designs for seabasing capabilities don’t even exist-and can’t support full combat operations 

 Amol M Sabnis 4, Lt Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo -US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online:  

 Sea Basing as a concept is bound to develop further … mature into a full-fledged system. 

 Seabasing collapses heg-causes counter-balancing coalitions 

 Amol M Sabnis 4, Lt Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo -US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online:  

 Sea basing will give the US the … power vice other elements of national power. 

 Basing ADV 1AR 

 5th Fleet presence key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism 

 Goodspeed 11—Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, HYPERLINK "  

 The tiny oil-producing state just off the east … Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate. 

 Solves oil shocks-collapses econ-turns DA 

 Blanche 9—Ed, The Middle East, August-September, "Flashpoint Hormuz: US and allies brace for trouble in the choke-point Strait of Hormuz, gateway to the gulf, as regional tension escalates", HYPERLINK "  

 The strait is a 180km-long horseshoe-shaped waterway … mid-2008 assessment of the Iranian threat. 

 T—Democracy Assistance—2AC 

 We meet—Advice is material—reject their interp because it’s impossible to quantify what “material” is 

 Peter Burnell 2k is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author or editor of thirteen books, and has authored over 35 articles and many book chapters on democratisation, the political economy of foreign aid, and politics in Zambia. He is founding editor of the journal Democratization., Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization p8-9 

 By comparison democracy assistance … political reform, are probably more common. 

 USAID says provision of advice for constitutional democratization is T 

 William P. Alford 2k Prof of Law @ Harvard 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677 lexis 

 C. Your Society Can Be Civil, Too: The Elements of Democracy Promotion 

 Within the four nations that Carothers highlights, and the … to the attainment of democracy, economic success, and social stability. 

 This solves limits and precision-it’s the best way to distinguish assistance from promotion 

 Dinorah Azpuru 11 is assistant professor of political science at Wichita State University and member of the Advisory Group of the Americas, “The Promotion of Democracy: Actors and Methods” in Achieving Democracy: Democratization in Theory and Practice 

 Burnell and Randall (2008, 283) identify …democracy assistance, is emphasized in this chapter. 

 Obama Power Add-On 

 Obama Bahrain credibility key to Heg— 

 WT 11—Washington Times, "Obama's Gulf in Leadership", March 16, 2011,  

 The second lesson is that the United States will … is a weak president who is growing weaker. 

 Solves Russia lashout, China-Taiwan war, Indo-Pak conflict, Latin American instability 

 Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7,  

 BC: Are we currently sending a message of … now no one quite knows whom it will bite or when. 

 Russia expansionism causes nuke war 

 Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online:  

 Proliferators or nuclear states like China and … neighbors or their own people.172 

 AID NOW 

 Executive giving democracy assistance now 

 Elliott Abrams, 11/8/11, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies , “Secretary Clinton Discovers Human Rights”, 

 Secretary Clinton’s speech said … reflected on the achievements and the errors that came before. 

 PTX 2AC 

 Executive action avoids politics and gives Obama a win—Jobs plan proves 

 Wolf 10/26Richard, USA Today News, "Obama uses executive actions instead of law", 2011, Tuscon Citizen,  

 For President Obama, it was something … largely to challenging community health centers to hire them. 

 Econ resilient, especially their internal link 

 Roya Wolverson 11 is a writer for TIME "Would a Slow Economic Recovery Be That Bad?" Sept 9 curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/09/09/would-a-slow-economic-recovery-be-that-bad/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+The+Curious+Capitalist%29 

 The good news about President Obama's $447 … off the overhang in the housing market. 

 Won’t pass or it’s inevitable [tacked onto must pass legislation]-also means plan triggers passage 

 By Vicki Needham 11-6, The Hill, “Lawmakers face new fight over extending unemployment benefits”, #38;layout=default&page= 

 Congress is expected to pass a …Hill after the press conference. 

 Jackson Vanick triggers link 

 Doug Palmer 11-10, Reuters, “U.S. wants quick vote on normal trade with Russia”,  

 U.S. President Barack Obama on … commitment to human rights and democracy. 

 Education 

 Jonathan Easley 11-8, The Hill, “Obama moves on education, rips Congress for 'dysfunction and delay'”,  

 President Obama continued to hammer … lower interest payments. 

 PC doesn’t Spillover 

 Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science @ Middlebury, May 09 ""Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power",  

 What is of more interest to me, however, is what her selection …decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee. 

 Pressure CP 2AC 

 Pressure triggers base kickout 

 Ottaway 11 Analyst @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 

 Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Marina Ottaway Commentary, April 4, 2011 

 But U.S. concerns in dealing with the Bahrain crisis—… States once again siding with an autocratic regime. 

 CP strengthen the hard-liners 

 King 11Assoc. Prof of Government & Georgetown University 

 Constitutional Monarchy Option In Morocco And Bahrain – Analysis, MEI, May 10, 2011 

 The Iran factor also adds to the regional dimension of the … that are very different from the ones pushed in the region’s authoritarian republics. 

 Threatening the Regime triggers Iranian influence & terrorism 

 Neriah 11Special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs 

 February 21st, 2011 , Bahrain: A Middle East Political Earthquake 

 The U.S. has every reason to be worried if Bahrain tumbles … in Bahrain and possibly in eastern Saudi Arabia. 

 Pressure triggers defiance – zero solvency 

 Reuters 11—Ross Colvin, 2/18, "Alarmed by Habrain violence, US appeals to govt", 2011,  

 Several 2009 cables from the U.S. … the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

 CP links to politics—Defense contractors 

 Nick Turse 11 is the associate editor of TomDispatch.com and the winner of a 2009 Ridenhour Prize for Reportorial Distinction as well as a James Aronson Award for Social Justice Journalism "The Arab lobby" Mar 15 www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/03/15/robert_gates_bahrain_obama_middle_east_protests 

 The Pentagon is also the sole … ruler against his people. 

 Imperialism 2AC 

 American public discourse is crucial to breaking down Islamophobia and orientalism—alt cedes politics and re-inscribes violence 

 Telhami 5— Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley 

 I think we all agree that, no matter how we …sharpness of the clash on the other side. 

 Reject infinite root causes—democracy and deterrence key to peace 

 John Moore 4 chaired law prof, UVA. Frm first Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on Int Law to the Dept. of State, Beyond the Democratic Peace, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis 

 If major interstate war is … when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased? 

 Saudi DA 2AC 

 Saudi relations will implode—US veto on Palestine 

 AL 11—Arabia Link, Newsletter: "Is There a Showdown at the UN Looming for Saud-US Relations?", June 13th,  

 Last month …, adding, “Paralysis, rhetoric, inaction will deepen the isolation of Israel.” 

 Plan turns the D/A faster—inevitable crackdowns ignite Shia radicalism that destabilizes Saudi Arabia 

 Lippman 11—Daniel, "WikiLeaks: Saudi Crackdown on Shiites Has Echoes of Human Rights Abuses in Bahrain", June 23rd, Common Dreams, published by McClatchy,  

 Middle Eastern experts warn …that that will be an outcome." 

 Saudi crackdown forces Washington to abandon the alliance 

 Bandow 11—Doug, senior fellow at the CATO Institute, former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, "Riyadh Scores One for Tehran", The National Interest, March 21,  

 So far the Saud monarchy looks resilient, … then of the West's devotion to liberal international norms? 

 Relations unshakable—defense and military ties, private assurances 

 Teitelbaum 7/17—Joshua, Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv U. Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan U. PhD, Tel Aviv U, 17 July 2011, Joshua, Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities,  

 The Saudis are truly angry at the Obama Administration, … are still very distant from the parting of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials. 

 No Saudi prolif 

 Lippman 11—Thomas W., senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, August 5th, "Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Policy", Saudi-US Relations Information Service, 2011,  

 It is highly unlikely, however, that Saudi Arabia … Middle East should become an internationally supervised region free of all weapons of mass destruction. 

 Fleet checks all escalation—BMD 

 Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire,  

 Today, for the first time in thirty years … defense makes our world safer. 

 Saudis would never break relations over Bahrain 

 Dietz 11—journalist for The Mideaster, "Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?" 4/21/11  

 Would pressure from Bahrain cause the …strategic relations with the US. 

 Saudi DA 1AR 

 No intervention or backlash—Saudis KNOW they overplayed their hand 

 Hammond 7/13—writer for Reuters; led the Reuters station in Saudi Arabia (Andrew, Analysis - Saudi policy on Yemen and Syria seen floundering, 13 July 2011, af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE76C0RI20110713?sp=true) 

 Saudi Arabia has helped damp down …policy initiatives during the long summer recess. 

 US has leverage and it overcome the Saudis 

 Terrill 6/27—Andrew, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic International Studies Institute US Army War College, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf”, 6/27, HYPERLINK " \t "_blank"  

 One of the most significant Arab Spring concerns for the United States involves … become more possible in a more stable domestic environment. 

 Relations resilient and will survive Bahrain disagreement—empirics prove 

 Zeigler 11—Lucien, Research Director at the Saudi-US Trade Group, Managing Director at The Lagat Group, LLC, "Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After 'Arab Spring'?", March 18, Information Chaos, HYPERLINK "  

 The long history of the so-called “special relationship” … growth. So, what we have is a crystal clear example of win-win. 

Saleh’s request drains PC

Nakamura 12/26 (David, 2011, “Obama administration weighing ex-Yemen president Saleh’s request to enter U.S.”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/44/post/obama-administration-weighing-ex-yemen-president-salehs-request-to-enter-us/2011/12/26/gIQAj8VRIP_blog.html#pagebreak)

HONOLULU — The Obama administration is reviewing a request …sustained unrest in Yemen.

Keystone pounds the agenda

Daly 1/2 (Matthew, 2012, “Obama, Congress begin 2012 in oil pipeline dispute”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j2vVocFY-ndIevcd6F81jGCZw2eQ?docId=231c59bb24ca4f43a0398129a6681ee2)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama and Congress are starting the election …favors environmentalists over jobs.

Labor appointments coming and pound the DA

Mak 12/26 (Tim, Politico, 2011, “It's World War III at the NLRB”, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70856.html)

Business and labor are at war over …allow him to make recess appointments.

Other parts of the jobs agenda

Nichols 1/2 (Hans, Bloomberg, 2012, “Obama Says He Is ‘Hopeful’ for 2012, Greater Economic Growth”, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-02/obama-says-he-is-hopeful-for-2012-greater-economic-growth.html)

 “We intend to ramp up the …moment for the middle class.”

Zero chance of passage—committee will result in gridlock

Bensen 12/31--Steve, "Enjoy the payroll tax break while it lasts", 2011, The Washington Monthly,

Last week, after a needlessly-contentious process, …failed to reach an agreement.

Plan goes to bottom of the docket—normal means for implementation

PC doesn’t Spillover

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science @ Middlebury, May 09 ""Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power", http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

What is of more interest to me… Sotomayor as his nominee.

Disad’s not intrinsic to the plan—within your agential ambit to do the plan and not pass ________ opportunity costs are the core value of debate

Executive action avoids politics and gives Obama a win—Jobs plan proves

Wolf 10/26--Richard, USA Today News, "Obama uses executive actions instead of law", 2011, Tuscon Citizen,

For President Obama, it was …community health centers to hire them.

We access the D/A faster—oil shocks will jar the world economy—US economy has been sluggish for 4 years

PTC doesn’t solve the economy

Bruce Bartlett 11—8-30, columnist of the Fiscal Times, was executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress and senior policy analyst in the Reagan White House, “The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut”,

However, there is no evidence that …extending the temporary payroll tax cut.

Obama will not take blame for PTC impasse—Clinton proves

Milligan 12/22—Susan, political and foreign affairs writer for US News and World Report, Voters won’t blame Obama, Democrats If Payroll Tax Break Expires, 2011, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/susan-milligan/2011/12/22/voters-wont-blame-obama-democrats-if-payroll-tax-break-expires.…want to ask Gingrich.

The US will say no – will block EU push for democracy in Bahrain

Afrasiabi 11—Visiting Scholar @ Harvard’s Belfer Center, Middle East, Apr 15, 2011, EU in a bind over Bahrain

Such stern warnings from Europe to repressive …disturbed by any democratic rumblings?

U.S. support for Bahrain means they will block the CP – only the perm solves

Esfahani 11—Freelance Journalist based in the Middle East

Soraya Esfahani, Closed Kingdom, 14-May-2011

http://www.iranian.com/main/2011/may/closed-kingdom

But the signal out of Washington …reform is not instituted quickly.

EU has no political leverage or democracy program

Fakhro 9—E.A, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, "The European Union and Islam: Democracy Promotion in Bahrain and the Arab World",

4. The European Union: A Role in Promoting Democracy in Bahrain …political influence of the EU in the GCC  and the Arab world.

EU disintegration inevitable

Walt 9/18—IR, Harvard (9/18/11, Stephen, The coming erosion of the European Union, walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/18/the_coming_erosion_of_the_european_union)

I gave a talk in Washington the other day about the future of the …European political integration is behind us.

No impact to  Europe

Haas 11—president of the CFR Lecturer in public policy, Harvard. DPhill, Oxford (17 June 2011, Richard, Why Europe No Longer Matters, http://www.cfr.org/europerussia/why-europe-no-longer-matters/p25308)

Gates sounded a pessimistic note, warning of …Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and others.

The United States Executive Branch should provide substantial constitutional support for democratic reform for Bahrain.

Advantage One—Civil War

Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf---failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention---also crushes US credibility

Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs,

There is no country affected

negating Iranian propaganda.

Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization

WP 9/9--Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now", 2011,

BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the Arab Spring. While the popular uprisings in Libya, Syria and Yemen have dominated the news in recent months, far less attention has been paid to the tiny but strategic Persian Gulf emirate, which hosts the

up, vital U.S. interests will be at risk. The administration should use its influence now — before the crisis resumes.

Failure of dialogue risks civil war & escalation to a Saudi-Iran war which would draw-in the U.S. and spread across the Middle East

Shaikh 11—Salman, Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Foreign Policy, "The Bahrain Crisis and its regional Dangers", March 23,

While US and international attention is focused largely elsewhere

providing Iran the opportunity to influence the emerging new regional order, which it has not been instrumental in creating or shaping till now.

That escalates to extinction

Jain 11—August, Ash, visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, JD and Masters from Georgetown SFS, formber member of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff, "Nuclear Weapons and Iran's Global Ambitions", The Washington Institute,

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to intimidate  and subvert Gulf monarchies, an emboldened Iran  could decide to direct terrorist attacks in the Gulf,  possibly even targeting U.S. interests

though this could be complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran. 

Advantage 2: Fleet

Civil war threatens the 5^th Fleet and spikes Iranian influence

WSJ 11

JULIAN E. BARNES, Wall Street Journal, FEBRUARY 18, 2011, U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html

WASHINGTON—Unrest in Bahrain is putting the future of a

Elliott Abrams, a former senior State Department official.

Mass violence makes the base untenable

Lippman 8-6-11 - Adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute

Why Bahrain is a U.S. ally, and why it needs to stay one, Thomas W. Lippman, August 06. 2011, Special to The Washington Post

http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20110806/NEWS0107/108060353/

The U.S. position could become untenable if

encourage his quest and hope for success.

5^th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

Cropsey 10--Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January,

American maritime strategy has played a major role in b

recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

And perception of credible Iranian deterrence key to international security alliances and US power

Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review,

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and

commitments overseas. 

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction---multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the larger picture: We

globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Naval power independently solves great power wars

Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf]

No other disruption

sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Iranian adventurism goes nuclear --- credible deterrence’s key to solve

Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance,

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained

policy provocations. American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iran, which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.

Iran is threatening to shut-down Hormuz—5^th fleet crucial deterrent

Reuters 12/29--"US Fifth Fleet says won't allow Hormuz disruption", 2011,

— The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday

important oil chokepoint," according to the . About 40 percent of all traded oil leaves the Gulf region through the strategic waterway.

Causes oil shocks and economic collapse at the most vulnerable point of world recovery

Forbes 12/13--Agustino Fontevecchia, 2011, "Oil: Iran's Hormuz Strait Threats Could Wreak Global Economic Havoc",

Crude oil prices surged on Tuesday on reports that Iran was set to begin

mention the wider threat of a conflagration in the Persian Gulf — could leave the global economy in even worse straits than it was a year ago.

Global economic crisis causes nuclear great-power war

Mead 9 – Walter Russell Mead, the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2-4, 2009, “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2

If current market turmoil seriously damaged

yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight

Best studies prove decline causes war

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

occurrence of and conditions created by economic crises. As such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Hormuz conflict escalates to nuclear strikes and war between Iran and Israel

Williams 10—Adjunct Professor at Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology-Madras. PhD in Defense and Strategic Studies, U Madras  (Lawrence, Peril Awaits at the Strait of Hormuz, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2557996/posts)

The Gulf-Southwest Asia region has always

Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf Region would be very complex and could have portentous consequences that could have irreparable consequences:

Israel strikes cause nuclear WWIII

Reuveny 10—Rafael, PhD, Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University, "Unilateral Strike on Iran could trigger world Depression",op-ed distributed through McClatchy Newspaper Co,

A unilateral Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would

unilateral Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.

Solvency

Only the US can break the deadlock for constitutional monarchy in Bahrain—most recent and qualified evidence

Gershman 12/1—Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”,

In fact, if there is not an accommodation in Bahrain, if the current standoff

help, they can seize this opportunity and realize its full potential.

Reform is possible and US assistance is key

Pollack 11/17—Kenneth M. Pollack is Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and a former Director for Persian Gulf Affairs at the National Security Council., 11/17/2011The Arab Awakening pp192-

A Bahraini Model for Political and Democratic Reform

process. The future stability and prosperity of Bahrain and perhaps the entire Gulf region may very well depend on it.

American engagement with Bahraini civil society prevents violent crackdowns that turn the Middle East into a powder keg—US involvement in democratic dialogue is key 

Aziz & Musalem 11—Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan &  Social Researcher in Bahrain

Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement, Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011

http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one Arab

democracy in the Middle East is no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.

Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal that results in democratic reform sufficient to block Iranian influence in the Gulf

Aneja 11—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu”

Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope

http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2808/stories/20110422280802400.htm

The blazing Bahraini revolt for democracy has

the Haq and Wa'ad movements, the two organisations that pose the most serious threat to the conservative royalty.

Constitutional monarchy solves sectarianism

Diwan 11—Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University, Foreign Affairs, "Bahrain's Shia Question", March 2nd,

The rival rallies held on February 21 by the opposition

environment across Arabia for its hard-line message.

US support bolsters the Crown Prince—makes dialogue possible

Leigh 6-8-11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times

The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html

The U.S. government's aim

private — as long as promises of talks are kept, and tear gas stops raining down on Manama.

The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible; the power struggle between the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister is critical to solidify US security interests in the Gulf and economic reform in Bahrain

Ulrichsen 11 – Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E.

OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.  

The security services’ takeover of Pearl Roundabout

firmly on the world map in recent years.

Reconcilation possible—Obama push key—regime has economic incentives to say yes

Bockenfeld 10/12--Cole, director of advocacy at the Project on Middle East Democracy, 2011, Reform must shape US policy toward Bahrain, The Daily Star,

The United States has maintained a key security relationship

against them, under the rights afforded them by rule of law.

Elections galvanized moves for democracy in Bahrain—US support key

The Hill 11/8—Tom Squitieri, "On an Island far, far away", 2011,

In September, 18 new members

tough love and good advice is deeply appreciated.

US explicit diplomacy key to constitutional monarchy and negotiated solutions—solves conflict and Sectarian war

Indyk & Stork 11 - Ambassador & Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution, Stork is a Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division @ Human Rights Watch

Official Transcript of a Project on Middle East Democracy Panel with Indyk & Stork: “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” Project on Middle East Democracy, U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 212-10, June 29, 2011, 9:00-11:00am, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

Finally, Ambassador Martin Indyk discussed U.S. policy

must accomplish, and should quickly condemn it as a “sham” if it fails.

The plan generates key compromises and middle-ground reforms without Saudi backlash---backlash from pressure sinks the whole thing

Pollack 11/17—Kenneth M. Pollack is Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and a former Director for Persian Gulf Affairs at the National Security Council., 11/17/2011The Arab Awakening pp192-

While this may have been an understandable

it as, or make it into, the enemy of reform.

ADV 1: Libya

Aid now and more to come

Blanchard 12/8 (Christopher M, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”, )

Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of

AND

Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9 

It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not cash

NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the

AND

Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.

Civil war likely in Libya now

Vatutin 12/13 (Alexander, Voice of Russia Correspondent, 2011, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/12/62092662.html)

Warnings from many experts are coming true:

AND

believe that it could break up into parts.

Plan prevents Libya from civil war and warlordism

Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar

AND

the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.

Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia

Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )

Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that

AND

now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

US must lead from behind in Libya --- encouraging cooperative action with allies solves strategic overstretch --- collapses overall hegemony

Erik Jones 11, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, September 30, 2011, “Power, Leadership and US Foreign Policy,” in US Power and the Transatlantic Relationship, online:

The redistribution of resources makes for a more

AND

has little choice but to go it alone.

Extinction

Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

Events in Libya are a further reminder for

AND

globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather

ADV 2: COOPERATION

US-South Korea relations will inevitably collapse

Steven Borowiec 11-9 is a freelance journalist based in Seoul., “U.S.-South Korea Ties Could Face Strains”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10608/u-s-south-korea-ties-could-face-strains

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak arrived

AND

countries’ shared military, political and commercial interests.

US cooperation with South Korean civil society solves inevitable tensions [including NK, trade, and USFK]--- common values sustain the alliance

Andrew Yeo 10, Assistant Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America, “Is Enough at Stake? U.S. Civil Society and the U.S.-ROK Alliance”, Center for U.S.-Korea Policy and the East Asia Institute, December,  http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/YeoUSCivilSociety.pdf

What impact does U.S. civil

AND

S. and South Korean civil societal sectors.

Increasing US support now is key --- current South Korean support of overseas democracy’s too cautious

Ted Piccone 11, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution., “Do New Democracies Support Democracy?”, Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 4 October 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2011/1026_democracy_piccone/1026_democracy_piccone.pdf

South Korea. After emerging from three decades

AND

to offer cautious support for democratic transitions abroad.

Coordinating technical assistance through the South Korean Knowledge Sharing Program’s key to effective Libyan transition --- provides unique leadership and expertise

Troy Stangarone 10-19, Senior Director for Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “Korea Can Do More in the Middle East”, http://blog.keia.org/2011/10/korea-can-do-more-in-the-middle-east/

In the aftermath of the Korean War,

AND

to share its experiences with other developing countries.

That solves G20 policy coordination and legitimacy, South Korea energy access, and makes inevitable reunification with North Korea effective

Troy Stangarone 10-21, the Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, October 21, 2011, “South Korea’s Arab Spring Role?,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/21/south-korea’s-arab-spring-role/

With the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya

AND

Middle East for when reunification finally takes place.

SCENARIO 1 --- NORTH KOREA

Reunification’s inevitable --- Kim Jong-un

Lee 12/25 --David S., graduate student at the London School of Economics and a James A Kelly Fellow at the Pacfic forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Window of Opportunity", Korea Times, 2011,

First, Kim Jong-il’s death has

AND

have the courage to envision a new Korea. 

But --- South Korean NGOs are key to make it effective

Victor Cha 11 is a senior adviser at CSIS and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. David Kang is a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California (USC) and director of USC's Korean Studies Institute. Funding for this report was provided by the Korea Foundation, CSIS, the University of Southern California, Poongsan Corporation, and the Academy of Korean Studies, “Challenges for Korean Unification Planning”, An Interim Report of the USC-CSIS Joint Study, The Korea Project: Planning for the Long Term, December,

Are NGOs doing the work of propping up

AND

order to stay there for a long time.

Ensuring a stable reunification’s key to preventing war on the peninsula that draws-in the US and China --- risks nuclear escalation

Bennett and Lind 11 (Bruce W. Bennett, Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation, and Jennifer Lind, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements,” International Security, Volume 36, Number 2, Fall 2011)

A government collapse in North Korea could unleash

AND

risk of escalation to the nuclear level.7

SCENARIO 2 --- G-20

Increased South Korean leadership role through the G20’s key to the entire G20 policy agenda---solves the global economy and green tech

Maria Monica Wihardja 10-21, Visiting Fellow in the Indonesia Project, the Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Australian National University; Associate Member, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, October 21, 2011, “2011-2012 difficult years for G20,” online: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/10/21/2011-2012-difficult-years-g20.html

These problems make global policy coordination much harder

AND

more proactive role in leadership, perhaps collectively.

South Korea is on the fence between bilateral and coordinated approaches to assistance – the plan resolves their internal debate in South Korea in favor multilateralism.

Chun 10 (Hong-Min Chun, Elijah N. Munyi, Korea Institute for Development Studies, 10, Dilemmas facing an emerging donor: Challenges and changes in South Korea’s ODA, http://www.devstud.org.uk/aqadmin/media/uploads/4ab794a073393_SA1-heejinlee-dsa09.pdf)

Emerging donors pose new challenges to the international

AND

own ‘strategic’ objectives by increasing its visibility.

South Korea’s spearheading the African green growth initiative in the G-20 – commitment to a multilateral assistance approach is key to success.

BAD 10 (Groupe Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD) / African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Tunisia, November 2010

Achieving Strong, Sustained and Shared Growth in Africa in the Post-crisis Global Economy

http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/KOAFEC%20paper%20on%20Achieving%20Growth%20in%20Africa%20final%20version%20November%202010%20_2_.pdf)

Given the gravity of the issue in the

AND

green technology in support of sustainable economic growth.

That causes a shift to no-till farming – preserves soil and massively decreases fertilizer use.

Gwata 11 (Feri Gwata, Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Enviro Africa Unit, 3/2/11, Low carbon farming: benefits and opportunities for smallholder farmers in Africa, Consultancy Africa Intelligence, http://www.consultancyafrica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=699:low-carbon-farming-benefits-and-opportunities-for-smallholder-farmers-in-africa-&catid=92:enviro-africa&Itemid=297)

It is widely acknowledged that agricultural production in

AND

results in them having relatively high discount rates.

Peak phosphorous is coming --- only the move to non-fertilizer farming solves inevitable resource conflicts

Elser 10 (James Elser is Regents' professor of Ecology in the School of Life Sciences at Arizona State University and co-organizer of ASU's Sustainable Phosphorus Initiative. Stuart White is director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia, and co-organizer of the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative. April 20, 2010, Peak Phosphorus, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/20/peak_phosphorus?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)

From Kansas to China's Sichuan province, farmers

AND

with cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans.

Extinction

Heinberg 4 (Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, 2004, Richard, Book Excerpt: Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World, )

Last One Standing – The path of competition

AND

for diminishing resources typically leads to aggressive behaviour.

SCENARIO 3 --- ALLIANCE

Expanding democracy cooperation outside Asia’s key to the sustainability of alliance

Dr. Victor D. Cha 9, Director of Asian Studies and the D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair at Georgetown University as well as a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council. He was the Director of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007 and Deputy Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Six-Party Talks, “Outperforming Expectations : The U.S.-ROK Alliance”,  February 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf

The U.S.-South Korean alliance

AND

challenge of North Korea for Washington and Seoul.

Key to contain a rising China

Doug Bandow 10 is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington "A Free Trade Agreement withSouth Korea Would Promote BothProsperity and Security" Oct 20 www.cato.org/pubs/tbp/tbp-031.pdf

The United States remains the globe’s sole superpower

AND

—symbolizes the geopolitical challenge now facing Washington.

Causes short-term great power war --- interdependence doesn’t check

Medcalf & Heinrichs 11 - Rory Medcalf is Director of the International Security Programme at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Raoul Heinrichs is Sir Arthur Tange Scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, and editor of the Lowy Institute Strategic Snapshot series, June 27, 2011, “Asia’s Maritime Confidence Crisis,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/27/asia%E2%80%99s-maritime-confidence-crisis/?print=yes

To the casual observer, recent security tensions

AND

with dangerous implications for regional peace and stability.

Goes nuclear

Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49

Obviously, it is of vital importance to

AND

is not marked by close great power alliances.

The United States Federal Government should increase support for democratic governance for Libya through a coordinated program with the Republic of Korea’s Knowledge Sharing Program.

SOLVENCY

Libyan transition to democracy’s starting but increased assistance is key to effective governance in the short-term

Flanagan 11/1 (Stephen, Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Diplomacy and National Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C, 2011, “International Assistance to the New Libya”, http://csis.org/publication/international-assistance-new-libya)

Maintaining civil order and establishing the rule of

AND

just governance, and the rule of law.

Providing assistance through foreign NGOs stabilizes Libya but preserves neutrality --- avoids backlash

William Bauer 11, Studied in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic at the University Exeter, with a specialisation in North-African politics, 8-24, “America Must Be A Back Seat Driver”,

So, what is next for Libya?

AND

the U.S. has to offer.

Plan solves – aid makes a decisive impacts

Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, )

Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by

AND

eventually be paid in US and allied blood.

Keystone pounds the agenda

Daly 1/2 (Matthew, 2012, “Obama, Congress begin 2012 in oil pipeline dispute”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j2vVocFY-ndIevcd6F81jGCZw2eQ?docId=231c59bb24ca4f43a0398129a6681ee2)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama and Congress …environmentalists over jobs.

Other parts of the jobs agenda

Nichols 1/2 (Hans, Bloomberg, 2012, “Obama Says He Is ‘Hopeful’ for 2012, Greater Economic Growth”, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-02/obama-says-he-is-hopeful-for-2012-greater-economic-growth.html)

 “We intend to ramp up the …moment for the middle class.”

Cordray nomination

AP 1/4 (BEN FELLER and JIM KUHNHENN, 2012, “AP sources: Obama bucks GOP, OKs consumer watchdog”, http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OBAMA?SITE=FLPEJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a defiant display …length of the Senate's session.

Drains PC

TPM 1-3 – Talking Points Memo, January 3, 2012, “Obama Misses Key Window For Empowering Top Consumer Watchdog,” online: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/obama-bypasses-key-window-to-recess-appoint-director-of-consumer-watchdog.php

The official declined to provide … the end of this Congress.

Zero chance of passage—committee will result in gridlock

Bensen 12/31--Steve, "Enjoy the payroll tax break while it lasts", 2011, The Washington Monthly,

Last week, after a needlessly-contentious process,…failed to reach an agreement.

Plan goes to bottom of the docket—normal means for implementation

PC doesn’t Spillover

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science @ Middlebury, May 09 ""Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power", http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

What is of more interest to me, however… present Sotomayor as his nominee.

Disad’s not intrinsic to the plan—within your agential ambit to do the plan and not pass ________ opportunity costs are the core value of debate

NGOs shield the link

Bader 10 (Max, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer – Geschwister School Institute for Political Science, Against All Odds. Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine, p. 25)

Being not as visible and not as contested, …consultancy and the inclusion in party internationals.

Libyan aid now triggers the link

Winners win

Mason 10—Jeff, covers the White House for Reuters, covering Barack Obama 26 March, “Obama's health win could boost foreign policy”,

WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's domestic success on healthcare …deal you have going."

PTC doesn’t solve the economy

Bruce Bartlett 11—8-30, columnist of the Fiscal Times, was executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress and senior policy analyst in the Reagan White House, “The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut”,

However, there is no evidence …stimulative alternatives to simply

Korea lobby’s powerful --- ensures support for the plan

Freeman 11 (BEN FREEMAN, et all, ‘11(LYDIA DENNETT, and DAHNA BLACK, 10/6, Ben Freeman is the POGO National Security Fellow. Lydia Dennett is a POGO Intern. Dahna Black is a POGO Policy Fellow,

http://pogoblog.typepad.com/pogo/2011/10/super-committee-under-the-foreign-influence.html)

Super Committee: Under the (Foreign) Influence?

Every year foreign governments spend …part of the Pakistani government.”

Lower prices from a stable Libya stimulates the US economy

Schenkel 8/22 (Andrew, political reporter for MNN, 2011, “Stability in Libya could be economic stimulus for United States”, )

1) We meet – we fund US NGOs who do expertise and technical aid on the ground but they cooperate with South Koeran ones too – that’s 1AC Bauer

2) Counter- interpretation –

Its means “Belonging to or associated with a thing previously mentioned or easily identified: "turn the camera on its side".” that’s Google 11 (https://encrypted.google.com/search?q=define%3A+its&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a)

For is “used as a function word to indicate the object or recipient of a perception, desire, or activity <now for a good rest> <run for your life> <an eye for” that’s Merriam-Webster 11 (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/for)

3) Prefer our interpretation –

A – Precision – democracy assistance can be funding through 3^rd parties

Richard Lappin 10, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖

Democracy assistance can …media groups and political parties.

AND – This is how aid works – their topic is unpredictable and has no literature

Goldstone et al, 2008

Committee on the Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs: Jack A. Goldstone, Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Jr. Professor at the George Mason School of Public Policy and a senior research scholar at the Mercatus Institute, senior member of the Political Instability Task Force and is director of the Center for Global Policy at George Mason; Larry Garber, New Israel Fund; John Gerring, Boston Universit; Clark C. Gibson, University of California; Mitchell A. Seligson, Vanderbilt University; Jeremy Weinstein, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 2008, “Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research,” http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12164

USAID’s DG efforts include …support for their activities.

B – The assistance still has to go to Libya – guarantees them politics, relations, spending, etc. links

C – They overlimit – direct assistance is a tiny part of DA

Newberg and Carothers 96 (Paula R. and Thomas, senior associates at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, World Policy Journal, Vol. 13, No. 1, “Aiding--and Defining: Democracy”, )

The first problem concerns the structures of assistance…overall U.S. assistance effort.

D – Third parties create real advantages that international fiat can’t solve – their interpretation drives the aff to contrived US key claims

E – Err aff – there are no good solvency advocates and the topic’s already getting stale – aff flexibility outweighs a marginal loss in neg ground

Extra T dumb – reject those planks, not a voter

4) Reasonability – competing interpretations causes a race to the bottom and over incentivizes going for T, which turns their education impact

Bahrain is on the verge of Civil War

Cockburn 12/29 (Patrick, educated at Glenalmond College, Perthshire, and Trinity College, Oxford, 2011, “Which tyrant will fall next?”, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/which-tyrant-will-fall-next-6282494.html)

In three of the Arab countries east of Egypt –…their grip on power now

The BICI report has fundamentally changed the game – now is key – the alternative is the violent implosion of the country

Gershman 12/1/11 Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy

I want to begin by congratulating Nabeel Rajab …violence than we’ve seen so far.

The violence is worse than ever and it will target the US---the crackdown won’t be successful

Cunningham 1/2/12 Finian, Global Research’s Middle East and East Africa correspondent, “Bahrain: Crushing Pro-Democracy Protests. American and British Police Chiefs Step Up State Repression”, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28452

“The violence is worse than ever,” …burning of American flags.

Crisis will re-ignite in 2012---triggers civil war

VS 1-3 – Vancouver Sun, January 3, 2012, “Will 2012 bring the leaders the world needs?,” p. lexis

First, however, we must navigate …that our fate lies in our own hands.

1AC—Dartmouth

The United States Executive Branch should provide substantial support for constitutional reform for Bahrain.

The Advantage—Sectarianism  

Sectarian violence and civil war is escalating in Bahrain—the government is cracking down on protestors as the anniversary of the February 2011 protests approaches

Reuters 1/19--Factbox: Key

AND

Clashes between police and mainly Shi'ite protesters in

spoke of systematic torture and abuse of detainees.

Bahrain is on the verge of Civil War

Cockburn 12/29 (Patrick, educated at Glenalmond College, Perthshire, and Trinity College, Oxford, 2011, “Which tyrant will fall next?”, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/which-tyrant-will-fall-next-6282494.html)

In three of the Arab countries east of

elite want to strengthen their grip on power now

The BICI report has fundamentally changed the game – now is key – the alternative is the violent implosion of the country

Gershman 12/1/11 Carl,

AND

I want to begin by congratulating Nabeel Rajab

AND

much greater violence than we’ve seen so far.

The violence is worse than ever and it will target the US---the crackdown won’t be successful

Cunningham 1/2/12 Finian,

AND

“The violence is worse than ever,”

Bahrain recently is the burning of American flags.

American silence on Bahrain represents a prioritization of national security interests over democratization—only the plan reverses this hypocrisy which solves regional conflict

Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua,

AND

There is no country affected by the Arab

political settlement, and in negating Iranian propaganda.

Failure of democracy flames Sunni/Shia ethnic violence and descends the Middle East into civil war

Shaikh 11—Salman, Director of the

AND

While US and international attention is focused largely

been instrumental in creating or shaping till now.

Sunni-Shia sectarian violence spills over to Iraq—oppression of the Shias causes mass destabilization

Nader Habibi 11, Henry J. Leir

AND

The Obama administration has been criticized in recent

AND

one that addresses the grievances of Bahrain's Shiites.

Civil war goes global—self-interested powers will intervene

Niall Ferguson 6, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, “The Next War of the World,” Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2006, Vol. 85, Issue 5, Business Source Premier

WHAT MAKES the escalating civil war in Iraq

, but more likely on Palestine and Mesopotamia.

Democracy in Bahrain is key to Shia political rights and quelling of sectarian tensions

Diwan 11--Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor

AND

And this outcome is bad for the United

in Bahrain has unwittingly legitimized such transnational appeals.

The plan breaks down sectarian violence at home and abroad—American public discourse on democracy assistance dissolves the clash of civilization discourse that pervades American politics and causes Islamophobia---

SHIBLEY TELHAMI 5, Anwar Sadat professor for

AND

Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley

I think we all agree that, no

AND

sharpness of the clash on the other side.

That causes cultural protectionism

Hermann 9/10 Lynn Hermann Digital Journal

AND

www.digitaljournal.com/article/311358

Wealthy donors and conservative foundations comprise a small

AND

with respect to the values of religious liberty.

That manifests itself in mass violence

Poynting & Mason 7 Scott Poynting is Senior

AND

" Journal of Sociology 2007 43: 61 SAGE

Like all ideology, the demonization of Islam

first Crusade' (O'Brien, 2000: 1).

Solvency

State Department democracy assistance gets the King to

AND

crisis--**This card is from TWO DAYS AGO

Alhasan 1/19--Hasan Tariq,

AND

However, such calls appear to be somewhat

neighbour in the wake of its quelled uprising.

U.S. posture change would be a game changer—solves peaceful resolution

Ulrichsen and Fakrho 1/19--Kristian

AND

Given that Saudi Arabia’s ruling Al-Saud

it could the resolution of the present one.

Only the US can break the deadlock for constitutional monarchy in Bahrain—most recent and qualified evidence

Gershman 12/1—Carl, President

AND

In fact, if there is not an

seize this opportunity and realize its full potential.

American engagement with Bahraini civil society prevents violent

AND

keg—US involvement in democratic dialogue is key 

Aziz & Musalem 11—Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan &  Social Researcher in Bahrain

Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens

AND

Sahar Aziz 1 and Abdullah Musalem, July 2011

http://ispu.org/pdfs/

AND

Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one

it is in the United States’ national interest.

Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal that results in democratic reform sufficient to block Iranian influence in the Gulf

Aneja 11—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu”

Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline

AND

09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope

http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2808/stories/20110422280802400.htm

The blazing Bahraini revolt for democracy has apparently

the most serious threat to the conservative royalty.

Constitutional monarchy solves sectarianism

Diwan 11—Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor

AND

The rival rallies held on February 21 by

AND

across Arabia for its hard-line message.

The plan generates key compromises and middle-ground reforms without Saudi backlash---backlash from pressure sinks the whole thing

Doran and Sheik11/17—Kenneth M

AND

11/17/2011The Arab Awakening pp192-

While this may have been an understandable approach

AND

make it into, the enemy of reform.

Bahrain is at the cross-roads—lack of reform FREEZES the conflict into escalating violence

Ulrichsen and Fakrho 1/19--Kristian

AND

Nearly two months have elapsed since the Bahrain

AND

frozen conflict that lasts for the foreseeable future.