Northwestern » Holsted-Weber

Holsted-Weber

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 16:06
#EntryDate
  • UNI Aff

    • Tournament: UNI | Round: 2 | Opponent: Iowa LO | Judge: Elliott, Darren

    • The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.

       

      Contention 1: Stability

       

      Status quo conditions in Libya make civil war likely

      Cordesman 8/22  (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 2011, http://csis.org/publication/next-steps-libya-egypt-tunisia-and-other-states-new-regimes)

      Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by a wave of euphoria over the end of one of the most repellant dictatorships in the Middle East.  AND

       

      Failing to provide that aid will not simply be penny wise and pound foolish; the price of such a US failure will eventually be paid in US and allied blood.

       

      Aid to Libya is inevitable but the plan’s key to ensure transparency and successful institutions

      Cohen 8/25 (Reut citing Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, a recognized expert on political Islam and American Islamist organizations, 2011, “What's Next For Libya?”, http://www.neontommy.com/news/2011/08/whats-next-libya)

       

      Is there anything America can do to prevent theocracy from taking root?

      AND

      So ultimately, rather than that aid being cash it should be a partnership of building institutions and also be very transparent.

       

      That accountability prevents Libyan civil war and warlordism

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in sight, the United States and its allies face the familiar challenges of post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction.

      AND

      Libya's limited size, favorable location, relative wealth, and homogeneous population should help ease a transition to peace and democracy, but absence of both government institutions and an established civil society suggest that the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.

       

      Global nuclear war

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)

      Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that he's warned for months about Libya being a flashpoint for escalated general war, similar to how WW I began.

      AND

      Nonetheless, the prospect of escalating war with nuclear or other mass destruction weapons suggests frightening possibilities, including a potential WW III scenario. It's no less implausible now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      Contention 2: Oil

       

      Oil shocks are coming – no new production

      Drum 8/26 (Kevin, Mother Jones, “Our Oil-Constrained Future”, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/our-oil-constrained-future)

      I've talked a few times (first here, most recently here) about the possibility that world growth is now constrained by oil production.

      AND

      If this model is accurate—and if the ceiling on global oil production really is around 90 mbd and can be expanded only slowly—it means that every time the global economy starts to reach even moderate growth rates, demand for oil will quickly bump up against supply constraints, prices will spike, and we'll be thrown back into recession. Rinse and repeat.

       

      Libyan oil will serve as a key buffer for struggling economies

      Huang 8/24/11, Ryan, Singapore News, “Oil Prices to Soften: Analysts”, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1148740/1/.html

      SINGAPORE: From the Arab Spring to the debt crises in Europe and the US, world events are conspiring to soften the outlook for oil prices.

      AND

      Economists said a sustained drop in oil prices will help to buffer the turmoil in financial markets.

       

      This is especially true for Europe.  Libyan oil production is irreplaceable

      Pack 11 (Jason, 4-18, Jason, researches Libya at St Antony's College, Oxford University, “Libya is Too Big to Fail”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/18/libya_is_too_big_to_fail?page=full)

      In 2008, I changed my career as an academic of Syria to become instead a professional engaged in the American and European efforts to bring Qaddafi in from the cold and forward the agenda of pro-market economic reform and Western investment in Libya.

      AND

      Most crucially, though Europe would be hit hardest if Libyan production were to vastly diminish due to ongoing unrest or stagnate due to a lack of future investment, low production totals would have sustained negative effects on both the fragile world economy and the Libyan people.

       

      Protection from the next oil shock will be crucial to the Eurozone

      Halligan 8/6/11, Liam, The Telegraph, “We can't rely on oil prices or QE to save us from this messWe can't rely on oil prices or QE to save us from this mess”, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8686314/We-cant-rely-on-oil-prices-or-QE-to-save-us-from-this-mess.html

      The eurozone endgame, too, is anyone’s guess. Europe’s leaders have failed, dismallyto tackle the debt crisis which is now crippling the single currency. AND

      Crude markets have long-displayed such a “self-correction” mechanism, giving the world’s big oil importers a leg up.

       

      Eurozone collapse leads to global trade wars

      Reuters 11, 5-20, “Euro Woes Increase Risk of Trade Wars”, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2010/05/20/euro-woes-increase-risk-of-trade-wars/

      Europe won’t just be exporting deflation to the rest of the world, it will export serious trade tensions as well: first between the United States and China, and, possibly, eventually between Europe and the United States.

      AND

      Trade wars added greatly to the depth and length of the Great Depression. The world’s ability to avoid a similar fight has been one of the blessings of the last two years.

       

       

       

      That spills over into Chinese military conflict

      Landy 7 [Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,]

      The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between the US and China will not be contained, but might spill over into the realm of military aggression between these two world powers. 

      AND

      But I have little doubt that protectionist policies on both sides greatly increase the likelihood of conflict–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

       

       

      US-China war goes global- self-defense by China provokes international intervention and economic linkages draw in the entire world

      Hunkovic 9, American Military University 2k9 [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]

      A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate into a nuclear conflict and a third world war, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could be affected by such a conflict, including Japan, both Koreas, Russia, Australia, India and Great Britainif they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the global economy, in which the United States and China are the two most dominant members.

      AND

      However, China, Taiwan and United States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine its eventual outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

       

      Transparent governance is key to the oil sector

      Lissakers 8-25-11, Karin, Director of the Revenue Watch Institute, “Libya’s Next Government Must Be Transparent Over Oil”, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f96bf512-cdb0-11e0-bb4f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1WckTEVB9

      Sir, In your editorial “Libyan uprising enters its final act” (August 23) you cite restoring security as the first priority for the Transitional National Council.

      AND

      It is no less vital that the international community offer the Transitional National Council the expertise and advice for managing the money already available to it and for reforming its governance of the industry vital to the future of every Libyan.

       

      US democratic support key to oil stability – most expertise and experience

      Margon 8/22 (Sarah, Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress, 2011, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html)

      The situation in Tripoli remains fluid, as President Obama recently noted, but the collapse of Col. Moammar Qaddafi’s brutal regime is imminent.

      AND

      Recent statements from the White House illustrate a strong commitment to doing so on all fronts.

       

      Contention 3: Credibility

       

      US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya’s key

      Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)

      Libya is perhaps the first of such “good” interventions. One hopes it will set a precedent for doing the right thing, even if – or perhaps particularly when – our “vital” national interests are not at stake.

      AND

      It seemed to work.

       

      Taking a leading role in Libya is crucial to overall US signal and credibility

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, http://www.marcopuccia.com/2011/03/global-analysis-american-leadership-in-libya-and-across-the-middle-east/)

      As revolutionary movements steamroll across the Middle East and North Africa, the United States cannot idly standby and hedge between liberalism and despotism.

      AND

      We need to decide what side of history we are going to be on, and what we will be remembered for during this historical moment.

       

      Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – inaction symbolizes US impotence and hurts other movements

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

      The future of Libya was never terribly important to the U.S.

      AND

      And in doing so they can help the Arab people build a new system that is consistent with freedom and democracy, not to mention friendly to the West.

       

      Unconditional support for democratization and credibility in the region is key to American soft power and legitimacy

      Byron 11 ("Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy", March 11, Presstorm, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/)

      It’s easy to read the revolutions across the Middle East now as a vindication of Joseph Nye Jr.’s philosophy of foreign policy.

      AND

      That, along with the limitations of military power, is a lesson of the Bush administration’s failure in the Middle East.

       

      Soft power prevents extinction

      Rieffel 5 (Lex, Visiting Fellow at the Global Economy and Development Center of the Brookings Institution The Brookings Institution, Reaching Out: Americans Serving Overseas, 12-27, www.brookings.edu/views/papers/20051207rieffel.pdf)

      The devastation of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina at the end of August 2005 was another blow to American self-confidence as well as to its image in the rest of the world.

      AND

      Appropriately, the appointment of Karen Hughes as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs suggests that the Bush Administration is gearing up to rely more on “soft” instruments.2

       

      Soft power’s key to sustaining heg

      Fraser 3 (Matthew, doctorate in political science from Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, former Editor-in-Chief of National Post p.9-13, “Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire”)

      The central thesis in the pages that follow may seem outlandish, controversial, and provocative.

      AND

      This book provides a detailed analysis—historical and contemporary" of the complex role played by soft power in the emergence of an American Empire. Divided into four main sections: movies, television, pop music, and fast food—the pages that follow will trace the origins, history, and current role of soft-power resources in U.S. foreign policy. By the end of this book, it will have been demonstrated that America's soft-power arsenal contains awesome weapons of mass distraction.

       

      Hegemony solves nuclear war and extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

      Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our continuing evolution as the world's sole full-service superpower.

      AND

      America then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

       

      US key – no other actor can fill our role in Libya

      Kagan 8/27 (Robert, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., and a prominent neoconservative writer and columnist for the Washington Post, “Obama needs to resist the temptation to run away from Libya as quickly as possible, says FPI Director Robert Kagan”, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/obama-needs-resist-temptation-run-away-libya-quickly-possible-says-fpi-director-robert-kagan)

      Still, the end of Qaddafi’s rule is a great accomplishment for the Obama administration and for the president personally.

      AND

      Yet the temptation to run away from Libya as quickly as possible, after a “win” for the president, will be enormous. President Obama needs to resist it.

       

      Contention 4: Solvency

       

      The US should play a leading role in Libyan assistance – allows for effective NTC governance

      Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 2011, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)

      Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old regime is on the verge of collapse, following a six-month rebellion by the Transitional National Council (TNC), a limited response operation by NATO, and significant economic and diplomatic pressures on the Libyan government’s leadership.

      AND

      In order to ensure these outcomes, the United States should play a leading role in facilitating multilateral engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.

       

      Plan’s governance assistance is key to NTC transparency and accountable usage of assets

      al-Ameri 8/23 (Alaa, British-Libyan economist and writer, 2011, “As Gaddafi's reign ends, the work of creating democracy in Libya begins”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/23/gaddafi-democracy-libya)

      The long battle to remove the Gaddafi family from power is nearing its end.

      AND

      The same international networks that bred the Arab spring will become an essential resource for the development of homegrown democratic social institutions.`

       

      The plan’s early governance support prevents Libyan corruption and chaos

      Reuters 8/22 (2011, “Rebuilding Libya: the first few steps”, http://www.peacefare.net/?p=4418)

      Virtually overnight, the rebel leadership will need to shift its focus from fighting Qaddafi’s forces to protecting them.

      AND

      Early efforts to ensure transparency and accountability could help Libya avoid the kind of corruption that has plagued Afghanistan and Iraq.

       




09/05/11
  • Illinois State Aff

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1AC – Plan

      The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.

       

      Clinton’s visit non-uniques all of your disads but doesn’t solve our advantages – the US still has a guiding role to play

      Rettig 10/20 (Jessica Rettig is a politics and policy reporter at U.S. News and World Report, “Qadhafi's Death Won't Mean End for U.S. Role in Libya”, October 20, 2011, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/10/20/qadhafis-death-wont-mean-end-for-us-role-in-libya)

      The United States has … ability to move forward.

       

       

      1AC – Stability

      Contention 1: Stability

       

      Status quo conditions in Libya make civil war likely

      Cordesman 8/22 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 2011, http://csis.org/publication/next-steps-libya-egypt-tunisia-and-other-states-new-regimes)

      Qaddafi’s fall is certain…. in US and allied blood.

       

      Aid to Libya is inevitable but the plan’s key to ensure transparency

      Cohen 8/25 (Reut citing Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, a recognized expert on political Islam and American Islamist organizations, 2011, “What's Next For Libya?”, http://www.neontommy.com/news/2011/08/whats-next-libya)

      Some reports have indicated … also be very transparent.

       

      That prevents Libyan civil war

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the Libyan …nevertheless be long and rocky.

       

      Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)

      Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour …implausible now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      1AC – Terrorism

      Contention 2: Terrorism

       

      al-Qaeda will attack with WMDs by 2013

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

      We should be especially … when they put their minds to it.”

                                                                                                                                  

      Plan’s democratic signal key – prevents global terrorism

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Another immediate counterterrorism  who have yet to be radicalized.

       

      Extinction

      Hellman 8 [Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf]

      The threat of nuclear terrorism is a necessity—not an option.

       

      Independently, causes a bioterror attack on the US

      Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Al-Qaeda and The Plague,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=30382)

       

      The report that some forty al-Qaeda terrorists… eliminate threats before they mature.

       

      Extinction

      Ochs 2 (Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately” 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)

      Of all the weapons of mass destruction, … plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE

      1AC – Credibility

      Contention 3: Credibility

       

      US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya’s key

      Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)

      Libya is perhaps the first …preferences of the Egyptian people. It seemed to work.

       

      Transparent governance aid is vital – it reinvigorates our credibility by aligning foreign policy with American ideals

      Allen 11 (Michael, Democracy Digest, January 30, “Reconciling ideals and interests in promoting Arab democracy”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/reconciling-ideals-and-interests-in-promoting-arab-democracy)

      The best guarantee of stability is …. democracy are now, finally, aligned.”

       

      That’s key to effective hegemony

      Finnemore 9 – Martha Finnemore, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, January 2009, “Legitimacy, Hypocrisy, and the Social Structure of Unipolarity: Why Being a Unipole Isn’t All It’s Cracked Up to Be,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1

      The strength of a unipolar … as building armies or bank accounts.

       

      That solves nuclear war and extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

      Events in Libya are a further …the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

       

      Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – inaction symbolizes US impotence and hurts other movements

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

      The future of Libya was … not to mention friendly to the West.

                                                                      

      US leadership’s key to effective regional democracy --- solves war

      John Guardiano 11, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, 3-18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring

      There is, after all, a democratic … Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. Now.

       

      Restrains aggression and adventurism

      Ray Takeyh 11 is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “What Democracy Could Bring”, 2-4, http://www.usmep.us/usmep/2011/02/14/what-democracy-could-bring/

      What is unfolding in Arab streets… toward arresting impetuous impulses.

       

      The impact’s nuclear and biological war in every global hotspot

      Ziad Asali 9, President and Founder of the American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16

      Improving relations with Muslim … pressing needs at home or other critical challenges abroad.

       

      Middle East war goes global

      The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html

      Any Third Lebanon War/General … be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.

       

      Obama must take the lead in Libya – status quo exacerbates perceptions of his weakness

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, http://www.marcopuccia.com/2011/03/global-analysis-american-leadership-in-libya-and-across-the-middle-east/)

      As revolutionary movements … remembered for during this historical moment.

       

      That causes nuclear war --- now key

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

      The disease of a weak president usually … to be one or the other. The status quo is simply not an option.

       

      Solves Russia lash-out, China war, Indo-Pak conflict and Latin American instability

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we currently sending a … quite knows whom it will bite or when.

       

      Russia expansionism causes nuclear war

      Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear states like … neighbors or their own people.172

       

      China war causes extinction

      Strait Times 2K (The Straits Times (Singapore), “No one gains in war over Taiwan”, June 25, 2000, L/N)

      The doomsday scenario … China puts sovereignty above everything else.

       

      Indo-Pak war causes nuclear Armageddon

      Praful Bidwai 8, International The News, 12-26-08, http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=153861

      Any India-Pakistan conflict  consequences too horrifying even to contemplate.

       

      US involvement post-Gadhafi isn’t enough now—limited engagement crushes credibility

      Investors Business Daily 10-20-11, http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/588853/201110201840/Gadhafi-The-Devil-We-Knew.htm?src=HPLNews

      U.S. Interests: Dictator Moammar … need to make sure it doesn't.

       

      1AC – Solvency

      Contention 4: Solvency

       

      The US should play a leading role in Libyan assistance – allows for effective NTC governance

      Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 2011, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)

      Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old  in stabilization and reconstruction.

       

      Plan’s governance assistance is key to NTC transparency and accountable usage of assets

      al-Ameri 8/23 (Alaa, British-Libyan economist and writer, 2011, “As Gaddafi's reign ends, the work of creating democracy in Libya begins”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/23/gaddafi-democracy-libya)

      The long battle to remove … homegrown democratic social institutions.`

       

       




11/16/11
  • Add-ons

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • NATO

      US failure to lead in democracy assistance in Libya kills NATO

      Bolton 11 (John R. Bolton is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, “Obama's Libya Missteps Imperil NATO's Future”, August 1, 2011, http://www.aei.org/article/103935)

       

      The collapse of NATO's resolve ... after the "kinetic military action" in Libya has ended.

       

      Nuclear war

      John Duffield, Assistant Professor of Government and Foreign Affairs at the University of Virginia, 1994

      [Political Science Quarterly 109:5, p. 766-7]

      Initial analyses of NATO's future prospects ... given the existence of nuclear weapons.11 




11/16/11
  • Libya SKorea

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide support to United States non-governmental organizations to implement transparent democratic governance for Libya in coordination with the Republic of Korea’s Knowledge Sharing Program. 

      ADV 1: Libya

      Aid now and more to come

      Blanchard 12/8 (Christopher M, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”, )

      Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of

      AND

      Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9 

       

      It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not cash

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the

      AND

      Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.

       

      Civil war likely in Libya now

      Vatutin 12/13 (Alexander, Voice of Russia Correspondent, 2011, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/12/62092662.html)

      Warnings from many experts are coming true:

      AND

      believe that it could break up into parts.

       

      Plan prevents Libya from civil war and warlordism

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar

      AND

      the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.

       

      Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )

      Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that

      AND

      now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      US must lead from behind in Libya --- encouraging cooperative action with allies solves strategic overstretch --- collapses overall hegemony

      Erik Jones 11, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, September 30, 2011, “Power, Leadership and US Foreign Policy,” in US Power and the Transatlantic Relationship, online:

      The redistribution of resources makes for a more

      AND

      has little choice but to go it alone.

       

      Extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )

      Events in Libya are a further reminder for

      AND

      globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather

       

      ADV 2: COOPERATION

      US-South Korea relations will inevitably collapse

      Steven Borowiec 11-9 is a freelance journalist based in Seoul., “U.S.-South Korea Ties Could Face Strains”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10608/u-s-south-korea-ties-could-face-strains

      South Korean President Lee Myung-bak arrived

      AND

      countries’ shared military, political and commercial interests.

       

      US cooperation with South Korean civil society solves inevitable tensions [including NK, trade, and USFK]--- common values sustain the alliance

      Andrew Yeo 10, Assistant Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America, “Is Enough at Stake? U.S. Civil Society and the U.S.-ROK Alliance”, Center for U.S.-Korea Policy and the East Asia Institute, December,  http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/YeoUSCivilSociety.pdf

      What impact does U.S. civil

      AND

      S. and South Korean civil societal sectors.

       

      Increasing US support now is key --- current South Korean support of overseas democracy’s too cautious

      Ted Piccone 11, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution., “Do New Democracies Support Democracy?”, Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 4 October 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2011/1026_democracy_piccone/1026_democracy_piccone.pdf

      South Korea. After emerging from three decades

      AND

      to offer cautious support for democratic transitions abroad.

       

      Coordinating technical assistance through the South Korean Knowledge Sharing Program’s key to effective Libyan transition --- provides unique leadership and expertise

      Troy Stangarone 10-19, Senior Director for Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “Korea Can Do More in the Middle East”, http://blog.keia.org/2011/10/korea-can-do-more-in-the-middle-east/

      In the aftermath of the Korean War,

      AND

      to share its experiences with other developing countries.

       

       

      That solves G20 policy coordination and legitimacy, South Korea energy access, and makes inevitable reunification with North Korea effective

      Troy Stangarone 10-21, the Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, October 21, 2011, “South Korea’s Arab Spring Role?,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/21/south-korea’s-arab-spring-role/

      With the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya

      AND

      Middle East for when reunification finally takes place.

       

      SCENARIO 1 --- NORTH KOREA

       

      Reunification’s inevitable --- Kim Jong-un

      Lee 12/25 --David S., graduate student at the London School of Economics and a James A Kelly Fellow at the Pacfic forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Window of Opportunity", Korea Times, 2011,

      First, Kim Jong-il’s death has

      AND

      have the courage to envision a new Korea

       

      But --- South Korean NGOs are key to make it effective

      Victor Cha 11 is a senior adviser at CSIS and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. David Kang is a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California (USC) and director of USC's Korean Studies Institute. Funding for this report was provided by the Korea Foundation, CSIS, the University of Southern California, Poongsan Corporation, and the Academy of Korean Studies, “Challenges for Korean Unification Planning”, An Interim Report of the USC-CSIS Joint Study, The Korea Project: Planning for the Long Term, December,

      Are NGOs doing the work of propping up

      AND

      order to stay there for a long time.

       

      Ensuring a stable reunification’s key to preventing war on the peninsula that draws-in the US and China --- risks nuclear escalation

      Bennett and Lind 11 (Bruce W. Bennett, Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation, and Jennifer Lind, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements,” International Security, Volume 36, Number 2, Fall 2011)

      A government collapse in North Korea could unleash

      AND

      risk of escalation to the nuclear level.7

       

      SCENARIO 2 --- G-20

       

      Increased South Korean leadership role through the G20’s key to the entire G20 policy agenda---solves the global economy and green tech

      Maria Monica Wihardja 10-21, Visiting Fellow in the Indonesia Project, the Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Australian National University; Associate Member, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, October 21, 2011, “2011-2012 difficult years for G20,” online: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/10/21/2011-2012-difficult-years-g20.html

      These problems make global policy coordination much harder

      AND

      more proactive role in leadership, perhaps collectively.

                                                                                                                                                                                 

      South Korea is on the fence between bilateral and coordinated approaches to assistance – the plan resolves their internal debate in South Korea in favor multilateralism.

      Chun 10 (Hong-Min Chun, Elijah N. Munyi, Korea Institute for Development Studies, 10, Dilemmas facing an emerging donor: Challenges and changes in South Korea’s ODA, http://www.devstud.org.uk/aqadmin/media/uploads/4ab794a073393_SA1-heejinlee-dsa09.pdf)

      Emerging donors pose new challenges to the international

      AND

      own ‘strategic’ objectives by increasing its visibility.

       

      South Korea’s spearheading the African green growth initiative in the G-20 – commitment to a multilateral assistance approach is key to success.

      BAD 10 (Groupe Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD) / African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Tunisia, November 2010

      Achieving Strong, Sustained and Shared Growth in Africa in the Post-crisis Global Economy

      http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/KOAFEC%20paper%20on%20Achieving%20Growth%20in%20Africa%20final%20version%20November%202010%20_2_.pdf)

       

      Given the gravity of the issue in the

      AND

      green technology in support of sustainable economic growth.

       

      That causes a shift to no-till farmingpreserves soil and massively decreases fertilizer use.

      Gwata 11 (Feri Gwata, Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Enviro Africa Unit, 3/2/11, Low carbon farming: benefits and opportunities for smallholder farmers in Africa, Consultancy Africa Intelligence, http://www.consultancyafrica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=699:low-carbon-farming-benefits-and-opportunities-for-smallholder-farmers-in-africa-&catid=92:enviro-africa&Itemid=297)

       

      It is widely acknowledged that agricultural production in

      AND

      results in them having relatively high discount rates.

       

      Peak phosphorous is coming --- only the move to non-fertilizer farming solves inevitable resource conflicts

      Elser 10 (James Elser is Regents' professor of Ecology in the School of Life Sciences at Arizona State University and co-organizer of ASU's Sustainable Phosphorus Initiative. Stuart White is director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia, and co-organizer of the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative. April 20, 2010, Peak Phosphorus, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/20/peak_phosphorus?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)

      From Kansas to China's Sichuan province, farmers

      AND

      with cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans.

       

      Extinction

      Heinberg 4 (Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, 2004, Richard, Book Excerpt: Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World, )

       

      Last One Standing – The path of competition

      AND

      for diminishing resources typically leads to aggressive behaviour.

       

       

      SCENARIO 3 --- ALLIANCE

       

      Expanding democracy cooperation outside Asia’s key to the sustainability of alliance

      Dr. Victor D. Cha 9, Director of Asian Studies and the D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair at Georgetown University as well as a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council. He was the Director of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007 and Deputy Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Six-Party Talks, “Outperforming Expectations : The U.S.-ROK Alliance”,  February 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf

      The U.S.-South Korean alliance

      AND

      challenge of North Korea for Washington and Seoul.

       

      Key to contain a rising China

      Doug Bandow 10 is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington "A Free Trade Agreement withSouth Korea Would Promote BothProsperity and Security" Oct 20 www.cato.org/pubs/tbp/tbp-031.pdf

      The United States remains the globe’s sole superpower

      AND

      —symbolizes the geopolitical challenge now facing Washington.

       

      Causes short-term great power war --- interdependence doesn’t check

      Medcalf & Heinrichs 11 - Rory Medcalf is Director of the International Security Programme at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Raoul Heinrichs is Sir Arthur Tange Scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, and editor of the Lowy Institute Strategic Snapshot series, June 27, 2011, “Asia’s Maritime Confidence Crisis,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/27/asia%E2%80%99s-maritime-confidence-crisis/?print=yes

      To the casual observer, recent security tensions

      AND

      with dangerous implications for regional peace and stability.

       

      Goes nuclear

      Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49

      Obviously, it is of vital importance to

      AND

      is not marked by close great power alliances.

       

      SOLVENCY

      Libyan transition to democracy’s starting but increased assistance is key to effective governance in the short-term

      Flanagan 11/1 (Stephen, Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Diplomacy and National Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C, 2011, “International Assistance to the New Libya”, http://csis.org/publication/international-assistance-new-libya)

      Maintaining civil order and establishing the rule of

      AND

      just governance, and the rule of law.

       

      Providing assistance through foreign NGOs stabilizes Libya but preserves neutrality --- avoids backlash

      William Bauer 11, Studied in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic at the University Exeter, with a specialisation in North-African politics, 8-24, “America Must Be A Back Seat Driver”,

      So, what is next for Libya?

      AND

      the U.S. has to offer.

       

      Plan solves – aid makes a decisive impacts

      Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, )

      Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by

      AND

      eventually be paid in US and allied blood.




01/21/12

Attachments

FilenameDateUploaded By
Tags:
Created by on 2011/09/09 17:45

Schools

Air Force Amherst Appalachian State Arizona State Army Augustana Bard Baylor Binghamton Bishops Castle Boston College CSU Northridge CSU Sacramento CUNY Cal Berkeley Cal Lutheran Cal Poly SLO Capital Case Western Central Florida Central Oklahoma Chico Clarion Columbia Concordia Cornell Dartmouth Denver Drexel-Swarthmore ENMU East Los Angeles College Eastern Washington Emory Emporia Fayetteville State Florida Florida Int'l Florida State Fordham Fort Hays Fresno State Fullerton Gainesville State George Mason George Washington Georgetown Georgia Georgia State Gonzaga Harvard Houston Idaho State Illinois Illinois State Indiana Iowa James Madison John Carroll Johns Hopkins Johnson County CC KCKCC Kansas Kansas State Kentucky Lafayette Liberty Los Rios Louisiana-Lafayette Louisville Loyola Macalester Marist Mary Washington Mercer Methodist Miami FL Miami OH Michigan Michigan State Minnesota Mission Missouri State NYU Navy New School North Texas Northern Iowa Northwestern Notre Dame Ohio Wesleyan Oklahoma Oregon Pepperdine Piedmont Pittsburgh Portland State Princeton Puget Sound Redlands Richmond Rochester Rutgers Samford San Diego State San Francisco State Santa Clara South Florida St Pete Southern Methodist Southwestern Stanford Texas State Texas-Austin Texas-Dallas Texas-San Antonio Texas-Tyler Towson Trinity UCLA UDC-CC UMKC UNLV USC Utah Vanderbilt Vermont Virginia Tech Wake Forest Wayne State Weber West Georgia West Virginia Western Connecticut Whitman Wichita State Wisconsin Oshkosh Wyoming


This wiki is licensed under a Creative Commons 2.0 license
XWiki Enterprise 4.2 - Documentation