Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide support to United States non-governmental organizations to implement transparent democratic governance for Libya in coordination with the Republic of Korea’s Knowledge Sharing Program.
ADV 1: Libya
Aid now and more to come
Blanchard 12/8 (Christopher M, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”, )
Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of
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Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9
It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not cash
NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)
Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the
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Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.
Civil war likely in Libya now
Vatutin 12/13 (Alexander, Voice of Russia Correspondent, 2011, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/12/62092662.html)
Warnings from many experts are coming true:
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believe that it could break up into parts.
Plan prevents Libya from civil war and warlordism
Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)
With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar
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the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.
Global nuclear war – draws in China and Russia
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )
Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that
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now than WW I seemed in early 1914.
US must lead from behind in Libya --- encouraging cooperative action with allies solves strategic overstretch --- collapses overall hegemony
Erik Jones 11, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, September 30, 2011, “Power, Leadership and US Foreign Policy,” in US Power and the Transatlantic Relationship, online:
The redistribution of resources makes for a more
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has little choice but to go it alone.
Extinction
Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 )
Events in Libya are a further reminder for
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globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather
ADV 2: COOPERATION
US-South Korea relations will inevitably collapse
Steven Borowiec 11-9 is a freelance journalist based in Seoul., “U.S.-South Korea Ties Could Face Strains”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10608/u-s-south-korea-ties-could-face-strains
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak arrived
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countries’ shared military, political and commercial interests.
US cooperation with South Korean civil society solves inevitable tensions [including NK, trade, and USFK]--- common values sustain the alliance
Andrew Yeo 10, Assistant Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America, “Is Enough at Stake? U.S. Civil Society and the U.S.-ROK Alliance”, Center for U.S.-Korea Policy and the East Asia Institute, December, http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/YeoUSCivilSociety.pdf
What impact does U.S. civil
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S. and South Korean civil societal sectors.
Increasing US support now is key --- current South Korean support of overseas democracy’s too cautious
Ted Piccone 11, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution., “Do New Democracies Support Democracy?”, Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 4 October 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2011/1026_democracy_piccone/1026_democracy_piccone.pdf
South Korea. After emerging from three decades
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to offer cautious support for democratic transitions abroad.
Coordinating technical assistance through the South Korean Knowledge Sharing Program’s key to effective Libyan transition --- provides unique leadership and expertise
Troy Stangarone 10-19, Senior Director for Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “Korea Can Do More in the Middle East”, http://blog.keia.org/2011/10/korea-can-do-more-in-the-middle-east/
In the aftermath of the Korean War,
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to share its experiences with other developing countries.
That solves G20 policy coordination and legitimacy, South Korea energy access, and makes inevitable reunification with North Korea effective
Troy Stangarone 10-21, the Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, October 21, 2011, “South Korea’s Arab Spring Role?,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/21/south-korea’s-arab-spring-role/
With the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya
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Middle East for when reunification finally takes place.
SCENARIO 1 --- NORTH KOREA
Reunification’s inevitable --- Kim Jong-un
Lee 12/25 --David S., graduate student at the London School of Economics and a James A Kelly Fellow at the Pacfic forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Window of Opportunity", Korea Times, 2011,
First, Kim Jong-il’s death has
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have the courage to envision a new Korea.
But --- South Korean NGOs are key to make it effective
Victor Cha 11 is a senior adviser at CSIS and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. David Kang is a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California (USC) and director of USC's Korean Studies Institute. Funding for this report was provided by the Korea Foundation, CSIS, the University of Southern California, Poongsan Corporation, and the Academy of Korean Studies, “Challenges for Korean Unification Planning”, An Interim Report of the USC-CSIS Joint Study, The Korea Project: Planning for the Long Term, December,
Are NGOs doing the work of propping up
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order to stay there for a long time.
Ensuring a stable reunification’s key to preventing war on the peninsula that draws-in the US and China --- risks nuclear escalation
Bennett and Lind 11 (Bruce W. Bennett, Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation, and Jennifer Lind, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements,” International Security, Volume 36, Number 2, Fall 2011)
A government collapse in North Korea could unleash
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risk of escalation to the nuclear level.7
SCENARIO 2 --- G-20
Increased South Korean leadership role through the G20’s key to the entire G20 policy agenda---solves the global economy and green tech
Maria Monica Wihardja 10-21, Visiting Fellow in the Indonesia Project, the Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Australian National University; Associate Member, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, October 21, 2011, “2011-2012 difficult years for G20,” online: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/10/21/2011-2012-difficult-years-g20.html
These problems make global policy coordination much harder
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more proactive role in leadership, perhaps collectively.
South Korea is on the fence between bilateral and coordinated approaches to assistance – the plan resolves their internal debate in South Korea in favor multilateralism.
Chun 10 (Hong-Min Chun, Elijah N. Munyi, Korea Institute for Development Studies, 10, Dilemmas facing an emerging donor: Challenges and changes in South Korea’s ODA, http://www.devstud.org.uk/aqadmin/media/uploads/4ab794a073393_SA1-heejinlee-dsa09.pdf)
Emerging donors pose new challenges to the international
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own ‘strategic’ objectives by increasing its visibility.
South Korea’s spearheading the African green growth initiative in the G-20 – commitment to a multilateral assistance approach is key to success.
BAD 10 (Groupe Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD) / African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Tunisia, November 2010
Achieving Strong, Sustained and Shared Growth in Africa in the Post-crisis Global Economy
http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/KOAFEC%20paper%20on%20Achieving%20Growth%20in%20Africa%20final%20version%20November%202010%20_2_.pdf)
Given the gravity of the issue in the
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green technology in support of sustainable economic growth.
That causes a shift to no-till farming – preserves soil and massively decreases fertilizer use.
Gwata 11 (Feri Gwata, Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Enviro Africa Unit, 3/2/11, Low carbon farming: benefits and opportunities for smallholder farmers in Africa, Consultancy Africa Intelligence, http://www.consultancyafrica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=699:low-carbon-farming-benefits-and-opportunities-for-smallholder-farmers-in-africa-&catid=92:enviro-africa&Itemid=297)
It is widely acknowledged that agricultural production in
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results in them having relatively high discount rates.
Peak phosphorous is coming --- only the move to non-fertilizer farming solves inevitable resource conflicts
Elser 10 (James Elser is Regents' professor of Ecology in the School of Life Sciences at Arizona State University and co-organizer of ASU's Sustainable Phosphorus Initiative. Stuart White is director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia, and co-organizer of the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative. April 20, 2010, Peak Phosphorus, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/20/peak_phosphorus?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)
From Kansas to China's Sichuan province, farmers
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with cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans.
Extinction
Heinberg 4 (Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, 2004, Richard, Book Excerpt: Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World, )
Last One Standing – The path of competition
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for diminishing resources typically leads to aggressive behaviour.
SCENARIO 3 --- ALLIANCE
Expanding democracy cooperation outside Asia’s key to the sustainability of alliance
Dr. Victor D. Cha 9, Director of Asian Studies and the D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair at Georgetown University as well as a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council. He was the Director of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007 and Deputy Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Six-Party Talks, “Outperforming Expectations : The U.S.-ROK Alliance”, February 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf
The U.S.-South Korean alliance
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challenge of North Korea for Washington and Seoul.
Key to contain a rising China
Doug Bandow 10 is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington "A Free Trade Agreement withSouth Korea Would Promote BothProsperity and Security" Oct 20 www.cato.org/pubs/tbp/tbp-031.pdf
The United States remains the globe’s sole superpower
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—symbolizes the geopolitical challenge now facing Washington.
Causes short-term great power war --- interdependence doesn’t check
Medcalf & Heinrichs 11 - Rory Medcalf is Director of the International Security Programme at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Raoul Heinrichs is Sir Arthur Tange Scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, and editor of the Lowy Institute Strategic Snapshot series, June 27, 2011, “Asia’s Maritime Confidence Crisis,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/27/asia%E2%80%99s-maritime-confidence-crisis/?print=yes
To the casual observer, recent security tensions
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with dangerous implications for regional peace and stability.
Goes nuclear
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to
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is not marked by close great power alliances.
SOLVENCY
Libyan transition to democracy’s starting but increased assistance is key to effective governance in the short-term
Flanagan 11/1 (Stephen, Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Diplomacy and National Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C, 2011, “International Assistance to the New Libya”, http://csis.org/publication/international-assistance-new-libya)
Maintaining civil order and establishing the rule of
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just governance, and the rule of law.
Providing assistance through foreign NGOs stabilizes Libya but preserves neutrality --- avoids backlash
William Bauer 11, Studied in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic at the University Exeter, with a specialisation in North-African politics, 8-24, “America Must Be A Back Seat Driver”,
So, what is next for Libya?
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the U.S. has to offer.
Plan solves – aid makes a decisive impacts
Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, )
Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by
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eventually be paid in US and allied blood.
