The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.
Contention 1: Stability
Status quo conditions in Libya make civil war likely
Cordesman 8/22 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 2011, http://csis.org/publication/next-steps-libya-egypt-tunisia-and-other-states-new-regimes)
Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be accompanied by a wave of euphoria over the end of one of the most repellant dictatorships in the Middle East. AND
Failing to provide that aid will not simply be penny wise and pound foolish; the price of such a US failure will eventually be paid in US and allied blood.
Aid to Libya is inevitable but the plan’s key to ensure transparency and successful institutions
Cohen 8/25 (Reut citing Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, a recognized expert on political Islam and American Islamist organizations, 2011, “What's Next For Libya?”, http://www.neontommy.com/news/2011/08/whats-next-libya)
Is there anything America can do to prevent theocracy from taking root?
AND
So ultimately, rather than that aid being cash it should be a partnership of building institutions and also be very transparent.
That accountability prevents Libyan civil war and warlordism
Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)
With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in sight, the United States and its allies face the familiar challenges of post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction.
AND
Libya's limited size, favorable location, relative wealth, and homogeneous population should help ease a transition to peace and democracy, but absence of both government institutions and an established civil society suggest that the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.
Global nuclear war
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)
Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that he's warned for months about Libya being a flashpoint for escalated general war, similar to how WW I began.
AND
Nonetheless, the prospect of escalating war with nuclear or other mass destruction weapons suggests frightening possibilities, including a potential WW III scenario. It's no less implausible now than WW I seemed in early 1914.
Contention 2: Oil
Oil shocks are coming – no new production
Drum 8/26 (Kevin, Mother Jones, “Our Oil-Constrained Future”, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/our-oil-constrained-future)
I've talked a few times (first here, most recently here) about the possibility that world growth is now constrained by oil production.
AND
If this model is accurate—and if the ceiling on global oil production really is around 90 mbd and can be expanded only slowly—it means that every time the global economy starts to reach even moderate growth rates, demand for oil will quickly bump up against supply constraints, prices will spike, and we'll be thrown back into recession. Rinse and repeat.
Libyan oil will serve as a key buffer for struggling economies
Huang 8/24/11, Ryan, Singapore News, “Oil Prices to Soften: Analysts”, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1148740/1/.html
SINGAPORE: From the Arab Spring to the debt crises in Europe and the US, world events are conspiring to soften the outlook for oil prices.
AND
Economists said a sustained drop in oil prices will help to buffer the turmoil in financial markets.
This is especially true for Europe. Libyan oil production is irreplaceable
Pack 11 (Jason, 4-18, Jason, researches Libya at St Antony's College, Oxford University, “Libya is Too Big to Fail”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/18/libya_is_too_big_to_fail?page=full)
In 2008, I changed my career as an academic of Syria to become instead a professional engaged in the American and European efforts to bring Qaddafi in from the cold and forward the agenda of pro-market economic reform and Western investment in Libya.
AND
Most crucially, though Europe would be hit hardest if Libyan production were to vastly diminish due to ongoing unrest or stagnate due to a lack of future investment, low production totals would have sustained negative effects on both the fragile world economy and the Libyan people.
Protection from the next oil shock will be crucial to the Eurozone
Halligan 8/6/11, Liam, The Telegraph, “We can't rely on oil prices or QE to save us from this messWe can't rely on oil prices or QE to save us from this mess”, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8686314/We-cant-rely-on-oil-prices-or-QE-to-save-us-from-this-mess.html
The eurozone endgame, too, is anyone’s guess. Europe’s leaders have failed, dismally, to tackle the debt crisis which is now crippling the single currency. AND
Crude markets have long-displayed such a “self-correction” mechanism, giving the world’s big oil importers a leg up.
Eurozone collapse leads to global trade wars
Reuters 11, 5-20, “Euro Woes Increase Risk of Trade Wars”, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2010/05/20/euro-woes-increase-risk-of-trade-wars/
Europe won’t just be exporting deflation to the rest of the world, it will export serious trade tensions as well: first between the United States and China, and, possibly, eventually between Europe and the United States.
AND
Trade wars added greatly to the depth and length of the Great Depression. The world’s ability to avoid a similar fight has been one of the blessings of the last two years.
That spills over into Chinese military conflict
Landy 7 [Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,]
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between the US and China will not be contained, but might spill over into the realm of military aggression between these two world powers.
AND
But I have little doubt that protectionist policies on both sides greatly increase the likelihood of conflict–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.
US-China war goes global- self-defense by China provokes international intervention and economic linkages draw in the entire world
Hunkovic 9, American Military University 2k9 [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate into a nuclear conflict and a third world war, therefore, many countries other than the primary actors could be affected by such a conflict, including Japan, both Koreas, Russia, Australia, India and Great Britain, if they were drawn into the war, as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the global economy, in which the United States and China are the two most dominant members.
AND
However, China, Taiwan and United States are the primary actors in this scenario, whose actions will determine its eventual outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.
Transparent governance is key to the oil sector
Lissakers 8-25-11, Karin, Director of the Revenue Watch Institute, “Libya’s Next Government Must Be Transparent Over Oil”, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f96bf512-cdb0-11e0-bb4f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1WckTEVB9
Sir, In your editorial “Libyan uprising enters its final act” (August 23) you cite restoring security as the first priority for the Transitional National Council.
AND
It is no less vital that the international community offer the Transitional National Council the expertise and advice for managing the money already available to it and for reforming its governance of the industry vital to the future of every Libyan.
US democratic support key to oil stability – most expertise and experience
Margon 8/22 (Sarah, Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress, 2011, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html)
The situation in Tripoli remains fluid, as President Obama recently noted, but the collapse of Col. Moammar Qaddafi’s brutal regime is imminent.
AND
Recent statements from the White House illustrate a strong commitment to doing so on all fronts.
Contention 3: Credibility
US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya’s key
Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)
Libya is perhaps the first of such “good” interventions. One hopes it will set a precedent for doing the right thing, even if – or perhaps particularly when – our “vital” national interests are not at stake.
AND
It seemed to work.
Taking a leading role in Libya is crucial to overall US signal and credibility
Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, http://www.marcopuccia.com/2011/03/global-analysis-american-leadership-in-libya-and-across-the-middle-east/)
As revolutionary movements steamroll across the Middle East and North Africa, the United States cannot idly standby and hedge between liberalism and despotism.
AND
We need to decide what side of history we are going to be on, and what we will be remembered for during this historical moment.
Libya is the test case for American leadership in the region – inaction symbolizes US impotence and hurts other movements
Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)
The future of Libya was never terribly important to the U.S.
AND
And in doing so they can help the Arab people build a new system that is consistent with freedom and democracy, not to mention friendly to the West.
Unconditional support for democratization and credibility in the region is key to American soft power and legitimacy
Byron 11 ("Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy", March 11, Presstorm, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/)
It’s easy to read the revolutions across the Middle East now as a vindication of Joseph Nye Jr.’s philosophy of foreign policy.
AND
That, along with the limitations of military power, is a lesson of the Bush administration’s failure in the Middle East.
Soft power prevents extinction
Rieffel 5 (Lex, Visiting Fellow at the Global Economy and Development Center of the Brookings Institution The Brookings Institution, Reaching Out: Americans Serving Overseas, 12-27, www.brookings.edu/views/papers/20051207rieffel.pdf)
The devastation of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina at the end of August 2005 was another blow to American self-confidence as well as to its image in the rest of the world.
AND
Appropriately, the appointment of Karen Hughes as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs suggests that the Bush Administration is gearing up to rely more on “soft” instruments.2
Soft power’s key to sustaining heg
Fraser 3 (Matthew, doctorate in political science from Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, former Editor-in-Chief of National Post p.9-13, “Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire”)
The central thesis in the pages that follow may seem outlandish, controversial, and provocative.
AND
This book provides a detailed analysis—historical and contemporary" of the complex role played by soft power in the emergence of an American Empire. Divided into four main sections: movies, television, pop music, and fast food—the pages that follow will trace the origins, history, and current role of soft-power resources in U.S. foreign policy. By the end of this book, it will have been demonstrated that America's soft-power arsenal contains awesome weapons of mass distraction.
Hegemony solves nuclear war and extinction
Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)
Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our continuing evolution as the world's sole full-service superpower.
AND
America then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.
US key – no other actor can fill our role in Libya
Kagan 8/27 (Robert, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., and a prominent neoconservative writer and columnist for the Washington Post, “Obama needs to resist the temptation to run away from Libya as quickly as possible, says FPI Director Robert Kagan”, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/obama-needs-resist-temptation-run-away-libya-quickly-possible-says-fpi-director-robert-kagan)
Still, the end of Qaddafi’s rule is a great accomplishment for the Obama administration and for the president personally.
AND
Yet the temptation to run away from Libya as quickly as possible, after a “win” for the president, will be enormous. President Obama needs to resist it.
Contention 4: Solvency
The US should play a leading role in Libyan assistance – allows for effective NTC governance
Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 2011, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)
Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old regime is on the verge of collapse, following a six-month rebellion by the Transitional National Council (TNC), a limited response operation by NATO, and significant economic and diplomatic pressures on the Libyan government’s leadership.
AND
In order to ensure these outcomes, the United States should play a leading role in facilitating multilateral engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.
Plan’s governance assistance is key to NTC transparency and accountable usage of assets
al-Ameri 8/23 (Alaa, British-Libyan economist and writer, 2011, “As Gaddafi's reign ends, the work of creating democracy in Libya begins”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/23/gaddafi-democracy-libya)
The long battle to remove the Gaddafi family from power is nearing its end.
AND
The same international networks that bred the Arab spring will become an essential resource for the development of homegrown democratic social institutions.`
The plan’s early governance support prevents Libyan corruption and chaos
Reuters 8/22 (2011, “Rebuilding Libya: the first few steps”, http://www.peacefare.net/?p=4418)
Virtually overnight, the rebel leadership will need to shift its focus from fighting Qaddafi’s forces to protecting them.
AND
Early efforts to ensure transparency and accountability could help Libya avoid the kind of corruption that has plagued Afghanistan and Iraq.
