Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf-failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention-also crushes US credibility
Jacobs, 11
[Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East. "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs, June 1, 2011, http://www.gulfinstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=148:blunder-in-bahrain-&catid=26:articles&Itemid=23]
There is no country affected by the Arab Spring...political settlement, and in negating Iranian propaganda.
Bahrain is on the brink of mass violence—only US democracy support can prevent Middle East destabilization
Washington Post, 11
[“Bahrain needs US Attention Now," September 9, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html]
Bahrain has become the hidden story of the...use its influence now — before the crisis resumes.
That causes oil shocks, Saudi instability, and Iranian aggression
Maginnis, 11
[Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst. "Bahrain's No Egypt," Human Events, February 21, 2011, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912]
First, Iran would use a Bahrain platform... through which half of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass
Closure of the straight collapses the economy
Blanche, 09
[Ed. "Flashpoint Hormuz: US and allies brace for trouble in the choke-point Strait of Hormuz, gateway to the gulf, as regional tension escalates," The Middle East, August-September, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2742/is_403/ai_n35578767/?tag=mantle_skin;content]
The strait is a 180km-long horseshoe-shaped waterway...warned in a mid-2008 assessment of the Iranian threat.
Economic collapse causes resource wars, democratic backsliding, and terrorism - all go nuclear
Harris & Burrows, 09
[Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC). Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit. “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf]
Of course, the report encompasses more than economics... within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
Independently oil shocks cause extinction
Roberts, 04
[Paul, Regular Contributor to Harpers and NYT Magazine. “The End of Oil: On The Edge of a Perilous New World,” p. 93-94]
The obsessive focus on oil is hardly surprising...mere survival than terrorism or even war.
Crackdowns independently create a new urban extremist risk – even a small attack incites a massive response – Hezbollah will get drawn in.
Ibish, 11
[Hussein, Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine. “Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?” April 14, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/is_bahrain_creating_a_new_terrorist_threat]
Since then, the government of Bahrain has... security threat, however limited and symbolic?
Hezbollah involvement in Bahrain will obliterate Bahraini-Lebanese ties – this will independently realign the Lebanese political landscape and destabilize the country.
Alami, 11
[Mona, Beirut-based journalist for IPS. “Hezbollah Challenges Bahrain Govt,” Apr 21, 2011, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55335]
Hezbollah’s hardening stance in the Bahraini... crisis in Lebanon could take a turn for the worse.
Causes Middle East Instability
Stuart, 06
[James, Principle Consultant at Hedra PLC. “Lebanon – The Struggle Continues,” http://alt3.co.uk/Library/Lebanon.htm]
Why is this important? Why is Lebanon, which is a small country... Lebanon is where we will make a difference.
Goes nuclear
Russell, 09
[James A., Co-Director, Center for Contemporary Conflict, Senior Lecture, Department of National Security Affairs, Center for Contemporary Conflict, Former advisor to Secretary of Defense on Persian Gulf security strategy and policy. “Strategic Stability Reconsidered:
Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” p. 43]
Strategic stability in the region is thus....with substantial risk for the entire world.
This allows China and Russia to fill the void
Wehrey et al., 10
[Frederic. Senior Policy Analyst at RAND. Dalia Kaye, Senior Political Scientist at RAND. Jessica Watkins, Political scientist at RAND. Jeffrey Martini, policy expert at RAND. Robert Guffey, policy expert at RAND. “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]
The decline in U.S. standing in the... engagement could spread into the security portfolio.
Competition will cause US-Sino war.
Luft and Korin, 04
[Gal, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. Anne, director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS. “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” March 2004, http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm]
The Chinese also have at their disposal... as Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.
US-China war bad- it would go nuclear, devastating US counter-intelligence failures ensure US loss, and China would use EMPs devastating the US
Santoli, 05
[Al, Asia America Initiative director. "Japanese Official: US Would "Certainly Lose" War vs. China," November 6, 2005, http://www.asiaamerica.org/publications/cif/cif-08-2005.htm]
Japanese officials have warned the US of a potential future nuclear war... Sea of Japan, Hawaii and the entire Trans-Pacific region.
Even if we do win-Chinese Nuclear Launch activates the Russian Early Warning System
Kristensen, 06
[Hans M., director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “Report: Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War”, http://www.nukestrat.com/china/chinareport.htm]
In Chapter 2 we quoted a range for China’s... exceeding 10,560 miles (17,000 km).
Extinction
Bostrum, 02
[Nick, Professor of philosophy at Oxford University. “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html]
A much greater existential risk emerged with the... risks that we will encounter in the 21st century.
Status quo bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against basing — the U.S. must find critical middle ground or risk losing basing worldwide
Cooley and Nexon, 11 [Alexander, Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies. Daniel, Associate Professor at the School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown. “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#]
The use of force and foreign troops against... throw its autocratic friends under the bus.
Democracy assistance is critical to maintain the fleet—failure to encourage dialogue will force withdrawal which collapses American military power and deterrence
Stimson Center, 11
[The Henry L. Stimson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international peace and security through a unique combination of rigorous analysis and outreach. “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain,” July 21, 2011, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]
The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become.... have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.
5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony
Cropsey, 10
[Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and W. Bush. "The US Navy in Distress,” Strategic Analysis, Volume 34, Number 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf]
American maritime strategy has played a major role in... surrendered slowly over decades
The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing—the United States must find a middle ground in supporting the opposition or risk losing military bases in Bahrain and worldwide
Cooley and Nexon, 11
[Alexander, Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies. Daniel, Associate Professor at the School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown. “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#]
The use of force and foreign troops against...Washington is ready to throw its autocratic friends under the bus.
A lack of forward basing collapses overall US naval power
Whiteneck et al., 10
[Daniel Whiteneck. Michael Price. Neil Jenkins. Peter Swartz. CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?” March, 2010, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf]
Is there a logical “tipping point” that can be... you are at the “tipping point.”
Forward deployed naval power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact
England et al., 11
[Gordon, a former secretary of the Navy. James Jones, a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations. “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784]
The future security environment underscores two broad... need to meet the challenges of the future.
US naval power guarantees hegemony, prevents attacks on the US mainland, and deters potential rivals from even attempting to change the status quo
Freidman, 07
[George, PhD, Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR. “The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power,” April 10, 2007, http://www.stratfor.com/limitations_and_necessity_naval_power]
This raises a more fundamental question... masks the fundamentally indispensable role the Navy plays in U.S. national security.
Collapse of US leadership causes a litany of scenarios for nuclear war and massive destruction
Kagan, 11
[Robert, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs,” January 24, 2011, Volume 16, Number 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1]
Today the international situation is... under a table and the table will not fall over.
Thus the plan: The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform in Bahrain.
US explicit diplomacy key to constitutional monarchy and negotiated solutions—solves conflict and Sectarian war
Indyk and Stork, 11
[Martin, Ambassador and Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. Joe, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division at Human Rights Watch. Official Transcript of a Project on Middle East Democracy Panel with Indyk & Stork: “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” Project on Middle East Democracy, U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 212-10, June 29, 2011, 9:00-11:00am, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf]
Finally, Ambassador Martin Indyk discussed U.S.... and should quickly condemn it as a “sham” if it fails.
Constitutional Monarchy is a key avenue for reconciliation between the monarchy and protestors-American mediation spurs a middle ground solution
Abrams, 11
[Elliot, Senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush Administration. "The Situation in Bahrain is a Disaster and it may be too late for a compromise", March 17, Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/what-comes-next-in-bahrain-2011-3]
So instead of progress toward a constitutional... but perhaps the Emiratis are more sensible; they usually are.
Plan key to quell sectarianism and shut out Iranian influence
Diwan, 11
[Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University. "Bahrain's Shia Question,” Foreign Affairs, March 2, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question?page=show]
The rival rallies held on February 21 by the opposition in Pearl Square... Arabia for its hard-line message.
US cooperation ensures no base kick out
Gvosdev, 11
[Nikolas, former editor of the National Interest. “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” February 18, 2011, World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends]
Over in Bahrain, the fall of the monarchy might threaten... Bishkek to renew the American lease to the base.