1NC – Frontiers K
They have misunderstood the beginning of the war in Libya – the plans action in Libya is complicit with an attempt to bring a recalcitrant government into line with the wishes of the transnational elite – this hypocrisy is seen throughout the region. Libya is the next step in the attempt to control Iran and the rest of the region
Fotopoulos 2011 [TAKIS, Senior Lecturer in … and rule” (Iraq, Libya, etc.).
The realist emphasis on stability takes place upon the backdrop of a technological ontology that attempts to create certainty through the imposition of military strategy. This framing reduces life to mere means and the Middle East to an impassioned population to be managed, guaranteeing failure
BURKE 2005 (Anthony, an Australian political … , but never abandoned or rethought.
The continuation of an American National Identity rooted in the frontier produces spectral forces that risk annihilation of the planet.
Spanos 08 [William Spanos, American Exceptionalism in the Age of Globalization: The Specter of Vietnam, pg. 95-97]
Huntington, too, like virtually all … , remarkably exemplary of this witness.
Our alternative is a genealogical interrogation of the history that produced the frontier myth at the center of American national identity – a counter-memory opens spaces for resistance and destroys the hegemony of dominant modes of power.
Clifford 01 [Michael Clifford, Associate Professor of Philosophy at Mississippi State University, Political Genealogy After Foucault: Savage Identities, pg. 134-137]
“Whenever man has thought … , above all to its mutability.”
1NC – EU/NEDCP
The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.
The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance
Gershman 06 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-remarks-and-presentations/060806]
The new repressive climate in … and also leverage additional resources.
Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability throughout Eurasia
Garber 08 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]
The Black Sea lies at a … , and the broader Middle East.
Escalation in the Black sea region causes extinction
Amineh 03 – Professor of International Relations @ … war and crisis in Iraq.
*CEA = post-Soviet Central Eurasia
1NC – China DA
No competition between US and China over Libyan oil now—both are preparing to defend interests
UPI 9-16-2011 (China, U.S. could tangle over Mideast oil, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2011 /09/16/China-US-could-tangle-over-Mideast-oil/UPI-75231316188447/?spt=hts&or=3)
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Sept. 16 (UPI) -- China's … step in. That could be messy.
China perceives plan as continued threat – collapses relations and escalates to war
Paul Craig Roberts 2011, Former William E. Simon Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University, and Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University. “US risks war with China and Russia,” Press TV, April 26, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/176776.html
We want to overthrow Gaddafi … and we're risking a major war.
1NC – Iran DA
Obama pushing for sanctions on iran now – dip cap key to get Russia and china on board
Lee and Solomon 11/4 (Carol Lee and Jay Solomon, 11/4/11, “U.S. Set to Raise Pressure on Iran” accessed 11/10/11 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203804204577015973759484912.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)
The Obama administration plans to … political steps to isolate Iran.
Democracy assistance requires a massive investment of diplomatic capital.
Stephen McInerney (Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) 2010 “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2011,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/fy11-budget-analysis-final.pdf]
Support for democracy goes far … and to the region’s governments.
Increased pressure is the only chance to stop proliferation – it’s try or die.
New York Times, “Tehran’s Ambitions,” 9/16/2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/17/opinion/tehrans-ambitions.html?ref=nuclearprogram
The latest report from the … chance of getting Tehran’s attention.
Global nuclear war
Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 10/1/2003 (Taking Proliferation Seriously – Heritage Foundation, http://www.policyreview.org/oct03/sokolski_print.html/)
If nothing is done to … spring-loaded to go nuclear.
Instability
The timeframe for this advantage is 20 months
Barakat, the National Transitional Council's health minister in Tripoli, 8-29-2011. (Libya's health minister tackles 'daunting' challenges, ABC News, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-29/libyas-health-minister-tackles-daunting-challenges/2860850?section=world)
ANNE BARKER: In the meantime, … within the next 15 to 20 months.
Rebels won’t foster a stable state
Allen 11 [Michael, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy and editor for Democracy Digest, “Libya’s Opposition faces Dilemma”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/libyas-opposition-faces-dilemma/]
Are Libya’s rebel groups genuinely … to violent instability,” he writes.
No escalation from Libyan instability
Allen, 11 [Michael, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy and editor for Democracy Digest, “Libya’s Opposition faces Dilemma”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/libyas-opposition-faces-dilemma/]
Some observers fear that the … like Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan.”
Neighbors will ease the transition
Ajami 8/31-- Senior Fellow and cochair, Working Group on Islamism and the International Order, Hoover Institution, Fouad, 2k11, From Baghdad to Tripoli, http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/91176
But Libya is not the … cut off from its past.
International multilateral action solves the impact to African instability
Theo Neethling, Chair of the Subject Group Political Science (Mil) in the School for Security and Africa Studies at the Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University, 2005, No. 1, African Journal of Conflict Resolution, http://www.accord.org.za/ajcr/2005-1/AJCR2005_pgs33-60_neethling.pdf, p. 57-58
Be that as it may, … -term security on the continent.
Terrorism
Libya won’t be a terrorist haven
Pack 11 Jason, The Two Faces …
Although hard-core Islamists are … a bane to jihadi recruitment efforts.
Weapons won’t fall into the wrong hands-They’re secure now
Press Association 8/26/11 [Press Association=British equivalent to AP, “US plays down Libya WMD threat”, 8/26, http://web.orange.co.uk/article/news/us_plays_down_libya_wmd_threat]
Monitoring the nuclear and chemical … for control of the capital
Chemical Terrorism won’t do damage
Ronald Bailey, science correspondent, “Bombs Away! Taking Nuke Terrorism Seriously,” REASON ONLINE, September 1, 2004 http://www.reason.com/rb/rb090104.shtml
Now for some qualified good … from biological and nuclear weapons."
No chance of terrorist nuclear acquisition – vital nuclear tech is lacking
Global Security Newswire, 3-1-11 ["Bush-Era Pact Deprived Libya of Key Atomic Tech', http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/siteservices/print_friendly.php?ID=nw_20110301_7995]
High-level U.S. officials have credited … necessary to stay in power.”
Terrorist groups will not use nuclear weapons—Complications, material availability, and multiple hurdles prevent. Moreover, no risk of using in US which takes out your retaliation scenario’s
Steve Chapman 2/8/2008 “The Implausibility of Nuclear Terrorism”, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_implausibility_of_nuclear.html
Why are we worried? Bomb … one that will never happen.
Libyan people wouldn’t allow it
St John, 11 [Ronald Bruce Ph.D., University of Denver, International Relations, “Libya: The Road Ahead”, The Montreal Review, April, http://www.themontrealreview.com/2009/Libya-The-Road-Ahead.php]
On the other hand, there … immediate Islamist threat in Libya.
No risk of bioterror and there’s no impact.
Alan Reynolds on March 11, 2010 (Senior Fellow at CATO Institute and former Director of Economic Research at the Hudson Institute, “Anthrax and the WMD Fear Lobby,” http://original.antiwar.com/alan-reynolds/2010/03/10/anthrax-and-the-wmd-fear-lobby/)
Nuclear warfare is still counted … to raid the empty Treasury.
Heg
Heg decline inevitable—transition to multipolarity is happening now, multiple warrants
Layne, 11 (Christopher, Professor and Robert M. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service, 3/28/11 “Bye Bye, Miss American Pie”, http://www.theeuropean-magazine.com/223-layne-christopher/231-pax-americana, JD)
International politics is in a period … is crumbling in slow motion.
Solvency takes years and multiple policies.
Sullivan ‘4 (Paul, Professor of Economics at the National Defense University and a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, 5-13-2004 “Why America is not Safer” http://www.apomie.com/notsafer.htm)
Going on TV to sell … not a choice; it is a requirement.
Alt causes –
A. UN vote on Palestine.
Ignatius, 9/15/2011 (David, Daily Star Columnist, “Amid Arab democracies, Israel must compromise”, The Daily Star, Lebanon, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/Sep-15/148778-amid-arab-democracies-israel-must-compromise.ashx#axzz1Y2ynFNBB)
Israel has hoped that Washington … compromise is part of survival.
B. Bahrain – bigger issue than the plan.
Hitlerman, 9-8-11 (Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/washingtons-leverage-over-bahrain/)
Washington retains real leverage over … opposition to show the way.
US credibility fails to solve problems
Mastanduno 09
[Michael, Professor of Government at Dartmouth, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco]
During the cold war the … on getting its own way.
Major political players in Russia have no desire for a confrontational foreign policy
Jeffery Mankoff, post doctoral fellow at Olin Institute for Strategic Studies @ Harvard, Spring 2007, The Washington Quarterly, p123-135, online: http://www.twq.com/07spring/docs/07spring_mankoff.pdf
Looking at government documents, official … aggressive impulse in the Kremlin.
No indo-pak war – deterrence
Matthew Parris, political columnist of the Times, June 22, 2002, The Spectator, “Without weapons of mass destruction, the subcontinent would be a lot less stable,” p. Lexis
Two cheers for weapons of … not both been nuclear powers.
Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent … enveloping the entire Middle East.
Latin America is not a global … the process of globalization worldwide.37
China will not confront American presence in Asia – transition will be peaceful – the two are not mutually exclusive, cooperation can offer the best of both worlds***
Zheng Bijian (Chair of the China Reform Forum, a nongovernmental and nonprofit academic organization that provides research on and analysis of domestic, international, and development issues related to China. He has drafted key reports for five Chinese national party congresses and held senior posts in academic and party organizations in China) September/October 2005 Foreign Affairs
China is not the only … development will in turn reinforce.
Hegemony is unsustainable – credibility gap, credit downgrade, and the rise of China make collapse inevitable
Clemons 11
[Steve, Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor in chief of Atlantic LIVE, “America Next: End of the World As We Knew It”, August 12, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/america-next-end-of-the-world-as-we-knew-it/243503/]
In nature, when a piece of … and social and political friction.
***Block***
K
American imperialism is the root cause of their impacts – the plan is nothing more than western imposition and interference, be very skeptical of their impacts – the plan is a ruse, this is from their author
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and … blow it up to save it.
More evidence from their author
Lendman 2011 [Stephen, Colonizing Libya by … "protect civilians" by murdering them.
Impact debate
This reduction of life to objects treats valuation only according to geopolitical interest which is the foundation of genocide
Swanson 5-20 [David, a … decades of predictably dangerous decisions.
AND, THERE’S NO VALUE TO … the human way of being.
Our alternative is a reversal of previous discussions that privileged ontology while forgoing praxis. Our return to the political reinstates ontology as a question of politics allowing effective resistance without abandonment.
Spanos 2K [William Spanos, American’s Shadow, pg. 4]
In the years following the … on this continuous lateral relay.
No link and turn – our alternative is a return of genealogical interrogations of identity and power to the realm of politics. Attempts to exclude ontological discussions from politics reinscribes American exceptionalism and cedes control to right wing elites. We must reintroduce ontology to reinvigorate the dissident voices that oppose the right wing.
Spanos 2K [William Spanos, American’s Shadow, pg. 184-187]
One of the disabling consequences … post-Vietnam period of multiculturalism).
Predictions good is not responsive to our argument – predicting the future is possible, but assuming that Eurocentric predictions are objective and neutral is violent. They base their advantages off of incomplete knowledge from biased institutions. All of our links are reasons to disregard their predictions in favor of embracing the possibility of other knowledge existing.
Grosfoguel in 2007 [Ramon, UC Berkeley, … of knowledge is a Western myth.
Heg
US credibility fails to solve problems
Mastanduno 09
[Michael, Professor of Government at Dartmouth, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco]
During the cold war the … on getting its own way.
Major political players in Russia have no desire for a confrontational foreign policy
Jeffery Mankoff, post doctoral fellow at Olin Institute for Strategic Studies @ Harvard, Spring 2007, The Washington Quarterly, p123-135, online: http://www.twq.com/07spring/docs/07spring_mankoff.pdf
Looking at government documents, official … aggressive impulse in the Kremlin.
No indo-pak war – deterrence
Matthew Parris, political columnist of the Times, June 22, 2002, The Spectator, “Without weapons of mass destruction, the subcontinent would be a lot less stable,” p. Lexis
Two cheers for weapons of … not both been nuclear powers.
Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent … enveloping the entire Middle East.
Latin America is not a global … the process of globalization worldwide.37
China will not confront American presence in Asia – transition will be peaceful – the two are not mutually exclusive, cooperation can offer the best of both worlds***
ZhengBijian (Chair of the China Reform Forum, a nongovernmental and nonprofit academic organization that provides research on and analysis of domestic, international, and development issues related to China. He has drafted key reports for five Chinese national party congresses and held senior posts in academic and party organizations in China) September/October 2005 Foreign Affairs
China is not the only … development will in turn reinforce.
Terrorism
Terrorist groups will not use nuclear weapons—Complications, material availability, and multiple hurdles prevent. Moreover, no risk of using in US which takes out your retaliation scenario’s
Steve Chapman 2/8/2008 “The Implausibility of Nuclear Terrorism”, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_implausibility_of_nuclear.html
Why are we worried? Bomb … one that will never happen.
China
CCP ideology
Aaron Friedberg 7-1-11, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton, “In U.S.-China relations, ideology matters,” Foreign Policy, Shadow Government, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/01/in_us_china_relations_ideology_matters?wpisrc=obinsite
It is sometimes said that … to achieve a stable modus vivendi.
No Impact - Collapse does not spread – any conflict will be internal
Zaryab Iqbal (Department of Political Science Pennsylvania State University) and Harvey Starr (Department of Political Science
Pennsylvania State University) 2008 “Bad Neighbors: Failed States and Their Consequences”, Conflict Management and Peace Science 2008, http://www.ssrnetwork.net/uploaded_files/4570.pdf
Second, state failure itself is … a given year has no effect.
1NR – Iran DA
Extend the NYT 9/16 evidence – pressure from the US and International community is essential to stop Iranian proliferation – it the only chance to prevent the spread of nukes.
Iran proliferation spreads fast and is SPRING BOARD to nuclear war, that’s Sokolski
And, the DA outweighs the case –
Iranian prolif results in US security guarantees in the Middle East.
Anthony Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Service Medal, 2009. CSIS, “Iran, Israel and the Effects of Nuclear War in the Middle East,” http://csis.org/publication/iran-israel-and-effects-nuclear-conflict-middle-east
Grim as these data are, … could trigger serious additional casualties.
Deterrence solves any risk of conflict – only extending security guarantees to the Middle East allows for nuclear escalation.
Ivan Eland, Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute, “Should US Extend Nuclear Umbrella?” 1/4/2011, http://www.consortiumnews.com/2011/010411a.html
And extending the U.S. nuclear shield … from these two nuclear pygmies.
That draws in other major powers – goes global.
Jorge Hirsch, Professor of Physics at the University of California San Diego, 2006
“America and Iran: At the Brink of the Abyss”, Feb 20, http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8577
The U.S. has just declared that … fought with sticks and stones.
US Budget crunch mean democracy aid won’t happen – these cuts are noticed and defeat their perception distinction.
Andrew Quinn and Phil Stewart 8/16 “US risks losing “Arab Spring” opportunity: Clinton” Reuters
The United States may lose … in the future," Clinton said.
No aid is moving now
Steven Lee Myers, 10/9/11 New York Times News Service, “Turning off the tap.” http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111009/NEWS0107/110090310/
Given the relatively small foreign … Middle East and North Africa.”
Diplomatic resources are scare and the defenses defense cuts are coming
Rogin 8-16-2011, Josh August 16, 2011 “Clinton: Debt … in their interests.," she said.
US focusing aid on iran now – IAEA reports – dip cap is key
Pace 11/8 (Julie Pace is a writer for the AP, 11/8/11, “Obama administration readies more Iran sanctions” accessed 11/8/11 http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/obama-administration-readies-more-1220333.html)
The IAEA report reveals for … under the pressure of sanctions.
Pressuring iran top of the agenda
NYT 11/8 (“Iran's Nuclear Program” accessed 11/10/11 http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html)
For its part, the Obama … ambassador to the United States.
Dip Cap finite and democracy promotion trades off
Grossman 10/18 (Supporting political and economic pluralism: a 21st century diplomatic approach, 10/18/11, Marc grossman http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2010/0912/comm/grossman_pluralism.html)
Third, diplomats must know how … that future is decades away.
Nuclear Iran creates the most likely and worst possible scenario of nuclear terrorism
Jafarzadeh 7 (Alireza - Middle east policy expert, The Iran Threat. Palgrave Macmillan. Pg 204)
A nuclear armed Iran would … radical ideology and nuclear destruction.
They have tech and are increasing research now
NYT 11/8 (“Iran's Nuclear Program” accessed 11/10/11 http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html)
The long-awaited report, the … useful in designing a nuclear weapon.
