1AC – Yemen
Contention One is Terrorism:
The United States is blocking peaceful democratic transition in Yemen now – the plan is key to solve terrorism
Karman, ’11 (Tawakkol, Leader of Yemen’s Democratic Youth Movement and founder of Women Journalists Without Chains, “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution” June 18, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all)
We have reached … development and stability.
And, lack of democracy assistance is alienating the opposition – the plan’s engagement is key to secure future cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts
Democracy Digest, ’11 (“Embrace opposition to prepare for post-Saleh Yemen” March 23, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/03/embrace-opposition-to-prepare-for-post-saleh-yemen/)
The crisis in Yemen …other internal opponents.
Cooperation over air strikes is key to effective intelligence gathering – unilateral strikes will fail and cause blowback
Gude and Sofer, ’11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program and Ken Sofer is a Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at American Progress, “Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen: Drones Are the Wrong Approach” June 15, http://www.thewashingtoncurrent.com/2011/06/misfiring-at-al-qaeda-in-yemen-drones.html)
The absence of cooperation … serious problem worse.
And, effective strikes in Yemen will decapitate AQAP and immediately reduce their operational capacity abroad
Cilluffo and Watts, ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Countering the Threat Posed by AQAP: Embrace, Don’t Chase Yemen’s Chaos” July 14, http://securitydebrief.com/2011/07/14/countering-the-threat-posed-by-aqap-embrace-don%E2%80%99t-chase-yemen%E2%80%99s-chaos/)
Of all the … AQAP’s immediate threat.
And, counter-terrorism operations are inevitable – cooperative surgical strikes are the most effective and limit blowback
Cilluffo and Watts, ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Countering the Threat Posed by AQAP: Embrace, Don’t Chase Yemen’s Chaos” July 14, http://securitydebrief.com/2011/07/14/countering-the-threat-posed-by-aqap-embrace-don%E2%80%99t-chase-yemen%E2%80%99s-chaos/)
We in no way … small-scale air strikes.
And, Yemen is the central locus of international terrorism
Boucek, ’10 (Christopher, Associate in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Terrorism Out of Yemen” October 11, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2010/10/11/terrorism-out-of-yemen/391)
The threat coming …portions of the country.
AQAP is planning a nuclear attack – they have the motives
Kanani, ’11 (Rahim, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of World Affairs Commentary, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” June 29, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
We should be … their minds to it.”
They can build a bomb
Joyner, ’09 (Christopher C., Professor of International Law at Georgetown University, “Nuclear Terrorism in a Globalizing World: Assessing the Threat and the Emerging Management Regime,” Stanford Journal of International Law, Summer, p. 218)
A further cause … capabilities of al-Qaeda. n72
They can get the materials
Bunn, ’10 (Matthew, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, “Securing the Bomb”, April, p. 17-18)
Unfortunately, there is … complacency sets in.
The impact is nuclear war
Ayson, ’10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects” July 7, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33 Issue 7)
But these two … unwilling to provide.
AQAP will target Israel
NCAFP, ’10 (National Committee on American Foreign Policy, “Global Terrorism: The U.S. Challenge and Response” September 27, http://ncafp.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Global-Terrorism-Report-Bklt.pdf)
A participant, alluding … target Israel directly.
Extinction
Morgan, ’09 (Dennis Ray, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Futures, Vol. 41 Issue 10, December, pp. 683-693)
Years later, in … a nuclear winter.
Contention Two is Instability:
Yemen is on the brink of collapse because of poor governance – action now is key
Duncan, ’10 (Alan, UK Minister of State for International Development, “Yemen: Political Dynamics and the International Policy Framework” November 1, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Meetings/Meeting%20Transcripts/011110duncan.pdf)
Weak government capacity… risk it happening.
And, absent U.S. assistance the transition to democracy will cause instability – that will cause oil spikes, terrorism, and a Saudi-Iran proxy war
Makovsky, Misztal, and Ruhe, ’11 (Michael Makovsky, Blaise Misztal, and Jonathan Ruhe are the Foreign Policy Director, Associate Director, and Policy Analyst respectively at the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Spring Trap”, The New Republic, March 31, http://www.tnr.com/article/86043/yemen-tunisia-egypt-arab-uprising?page=0,0)
Regardless of his … of remaining Yemen.
And, oil spikes collapse the economy – stability is key
The Economist, ’11 (“The 2011 Oil Shock” March 3, http://www.economist.com/node/18281774)
THE price of oil … and raise inflation.
Extinction
Auslin and Lachman, ’09 (Michael Auslin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels” March 6, http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/06/global-economy-unravels-opinions-contributors-g20.html)
What do these trends … into a big bang.
And, Saudi-Iran proxy war causes Middle East instability
Pradhan, ’09 (Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, “Houthis and external intervention in Yemen” November 25, http://www.idsa.in/node/3538/2689)
The situation in … the whole region.
Extinction
Steinbach, ’02 (John, Centre for Research on Globalisation, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace” March, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm)
Meanwhile, the existence … a world conflagration." (44)
Plan: The United States federal government should provide local governance assistance for Yemen.
Contention Three is Solvency:
The plan is key to create good governance practices and solve corruption
Greenfield, ’10 (Danya, Program Officer with the Middle East and North Africa division with the Center for International Private Enterprise, “Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen” January 14, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html)
U.S. policy should … with tribal groups.
And, the plan signals support for the opposition – that’s key to lock in cooperation
Florek, ’11 (Adam, Analyst at GPS Analysis, “American-Yemeni Relations: Precarious Prospects” June 24, http://gpsanalysis.com/?p=591)
In the months …position of influence.
The US is giving democracy assistance to Yemen now, but it’s not targeted correctly and isn’t getting the support of the opposition
McInerney, ’11 (Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East. www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf )
There would of course… strategy moving forward.