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1AC – Yemen

Contention One is Terrorism:

The United States is blocking peaceful democratic transition in Yemen now – the plan is key to solve terrorism
Karman, ’11 (Tawakkol, Leader of Yemen’s Democratic Youth Movement and founder of Women Journalists Without Chains, “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution” June 18, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all)

We have reached … development and stability.

And, lack of democracy assistance is alienating the opposition – the plan’s engagement is key to secure future cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts
Democracy Digest, ’11 (“Embrace opposition to prepare for post-Saleh Yemen” March 23, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/03/embrace-opposition-to-prepare-for-post-saleh-yemen/)

The crisis in Yemen …other internal opponents.

Cooperation over air strikes is key to effective intelligence gathering – unilateral strikes will fail and cause blowback
Gude and Sofer, ’11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program and Ken Sofer is a Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at American Progress, “Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen: Drones Are the Wrong Approach” June 15, http://www.thewashingtoncurrent.com/2011/06/misfiring-at-al-qaeda-in-yemen-drones.html)

The absence of cooperation … serious problem worse.

And, effective strikes in Yemen will decapitate AQAP and immediately reduce their operational capacity abroad
Cilluffo and Watts, ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Countering the Threat Posed by AQAP: Embrace, Don’t Chase Yemen’s Chaos” July 14, http://securitydebrief.com/2011/07/14/countering-the-threat-posed-by-aqap-embrace-don%E2%80%99t-chase-yemen%E2%80%99s-chaos/)

Of all the … AQAP’s immediate threat.

And, counter-terrorism operations are inevitable – cooperative surgical strikes are the most effective and limit blowback
Cilluffo and Watts, ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Countering the Threat Posed by AQAP: Embrace, Don’t Chase Yemen’s Chaos” July 14, http://securitydebrief.com/2011/07/14/countering-the-threat-posed-by-aqap-embrace-don%E2%80%99t-chase-yemen%E2%80%99s-chaos/)

We in no way … small-scale air strikes.

And, Yemen is the central locus of international terrorism
Boucek, ’10 (Christopher, Associate in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Terrorism Out of Yemen” October 11, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2010/10/11/terrorism-out-of-yemen/391)

The threat coming …portions of the country. 

AQAP is planning a nuclear attack – they have the motives
Kanani, ’11 (Rahim, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of World Affairs Commentary, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” June 29, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

We should be … their minds to it.”

They can build a bomb
Joyner, ’09 (Christopher C., Professor of International Law at Georgetown University, “Nuclear Terrorism in a Globalizing World: Assessing the Threat and the Emerging Management Regime,” Stanford Journal of International Law, Summer, p. 218)

A further cause … capabilities of al-Qaeda. n72

They can get the materials
Bunn, ’10 (Matthew, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, “Securing the Bomb”, April, p. 17-18)

Unfortunately, there is … complacency sets in.

The impact is nuclear war
Ayson, ’10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects” July 7, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33 Issue 7)

But these two … unwilling to provide.

AQAP will target Israel
NCAFP, ’10 (National Committee on American Foreign Policy, “Global Terrorism: The U.S. Challenge and Response” September 27, http://ncafp.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Global-Terrorism-Report-Bklt.pdf)

A participant, alluding … target Israel directly.

Extinction
Morgan, ’09 (Dennis Ray, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Futures, Vol. 41 Issue 10, December, pp. 683-693)

Years later, in … a nuclear winter.

Contention Two is Instability:

Yemen is on the brink of collapse because of poor governance – action now is key
Duncan, ’10 (Alan, UK Minister of State for International Development, “Yemen: Political Dynamics and the International Policy Framework” November 1, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Meetings/Meeting%20Transcripts/011110duncan.pdf)

Weak government capacity… risk it happening.

And, absent U.S. assistance the transition to democracy will cause instability – that will cause oil spikes, terrorism, and a Saudi-Iran proxy war
Makovsky, Misztal, and Ruhe, ’11 (Michael Makovsky, Blaise Misztal, and Jonathan Ruhe are the Foreign Policy Director, Associate Director, and Policy Analyst respectively at the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Spring Trap”, The New Republic, March 31, http://www.tnr.com/article/86043/yemen-tunisia-egypt-arab-uprising?page=0,0)

Regardless of his … of remaining Yemen.

And, oil spikes collapse the economy – stability is key
The Economist, ’11 (“The 2011 Oil Shock” March 3, http://www.economist.com/node/18281774)

THE price of oil … and raise inflation.

Extinction
Auslin and Lachman, ’09 (Michael Auslin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels” March 6, http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/06/global-economy-unravels-opinions-contributors-g20.html)

What do these trends … into a big bang.
 

And, Saudi-Iran proxy war causes Middle East instability
Pradhan, ’09 (Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, “Houthis and external intervention in Yemen” November 25, http://www.idsa.in/node/3538/2689)

The situation in … the whole region.

Extinction
Steinbach, ’02 (John, Centre for Research on Globalisation, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace” March, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm)

Meanwhile, the existence … a world conflagration." (44)

Plan: The United States federal government should provide local governance assistance for Yemen.

Contention Three is Solvency:

The plan is key to create good governance practices and solve corruption
Greenfield, ’10 (Danya, Program Officer with the Middle East and North Africa division with the Center for International Private Enterprise, “Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen” January 14, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html)

U.S. policy should … with tribal groups.

And, the plan signals support for the opposition – that’s key to lock in cooperation
Florek, ’11 (Adam, Analyst at GPS Analysis, “American-Yemeni Relations: Precarious Prospects” June 24, http://gpsanalysis.com/?p=591)

In the months …position of influence.

The US is giving democracy assistance to Yemen now, but it’s not targeted correctly and isn’t getting the support of the opposition
McInerney, ’11 (Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East. www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf )

There would of course… strategy moving forward.

First, instability is causing Chinese engagement in Yemen to secure trade and oil routes
Simpfendorfer 2011 [August 23, Ben is an adviser to the China Energy Fund Committee and managing director of Silk Road Associates. He is a China and Middle East specialist, “Yemen's security challenge tests China's foreign policy; Ben Simpfendorfer outlines the considerable risks to Chinese trade and oil supply”, South China Morning Post, Pg. 11]//Abraha

Libya's unrest shone …in the Middle East.

Second, Influence in Yemen is zero sum –Chinese expansionism emboldens aggression towards Taiwan, plan is key to reverse this

Sorenson 2006 [David S., is Professor of International Security Studies. He received his Ph.D. from the School of International Studies at the University of Denver Professor Sorenson was Associate Dean for Academic Programs (2000-2003), and has served as Chair of the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association, and Chair of the International Security and Arms Control Section of the American Political Science and has written numerous articles and book chapters on Middle East politics, defense budget politics, and national security affairs, “Triangular Competition? The U.S., Russia, and China in Yemen”, ebsco]]//Abraha

Chinese interests in … Middle East policy

Third, Yemen is key to securing energy chokepoints - key to hegemony and counterbalancing China

Hallinan 2011 [Conn, 3/25, Conn is a columnist for Foreign Policy in Focus. “Is the Libya Intervention Directed at China?”, ebsco]//Abraha

In 2009, the … price of the ticket.

And, the US control of the gulf of Aden is key to China containment

Escobar 2010 [Pepe, Jan 13^th, Pepe is an analyst, correspondent and journalist for the Asia Times, “Empire reloaded”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA13Ak04.html]//Abraha

Yemen could not … the Chinese yuan. 

And, China is attempting to aggressively counterbalance the US now

Yuan 2010  [Jingdong, 2010, Associate Professor at the Center for International Security Studies in Sydney, Asia Times, Deep  Reasons for China and US to bristle, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LH20Ad01.html]

China's strong reaction … decades to come.

And, the plan signals support for the opposition in Yemen – that’s key to lock in cooperation and influence for control of the chokepoint

Florek ’11 (Adam, Analyst at GPS Analysis, “American-Yemeni Relations: Precarious Prospects” June 24, http://gpsanalysis.com/?p=591)

In the months … position of influence.

And, the plan solves - securing cooperation gives us control of the port of Aden, that’s key to our Asian containment strategy and hegemony in the region

Bhadrakumar 2010 [January 9th, Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a distinguished career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, “Obama's Yemeni odyssey targets China”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak03.html]//Abraha

Most important, however, … without occupying Yemen. 

This is key to prevent multiple scenarios for nuclear war

Goh 8  [Evelyn, Lecturer in International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the Univ of Oxford, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, “Hierarchy and the role of the United States in the East Asian security order,” 2008 8(3):353-377, Oxford Journals Database]

The centrality of … be much worse.

And, war over Taiwan is the only scenario for extinction – the US will get involved

Tucker 2005 [Nancy, professor at Georgetown University, “Dangerous strait: the U.S.--Taiwan--China crisis”, p. google books]

At the beginning … people of Taiwan.

War with China goes nuclear and destroys the economy – their china war good offense doesn’t apply, we’d lose

Farrell 2011 [Paul, February 8^th, PhD in Psychology and a Juris doctor in Psychology. writes the column on behavioral economics, the author of nine books on economics and psychology, executive vice president of the Financial News Network; and associate editor of the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, “Secret China war plan: trillions in U.S. debt Commentary: Today an economic battle; later, combat”, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/secret-china-war-plan-trillions-in-us-debt-2011-02-08?pagenumber=1]//Abraha

China’s war for “…, years in advance.

And, failure to contain China causes World war 3

Krauthammer 1995 [Charles, 7/31, “why we must contain china” Time Magazine, http://jcgi.pathfinder.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,983245,00.html]

Does containment mean … the 21st century.

Adv 1
Yemen is on the brink of collapse because of poor governance – action now is key
Duncan 10 (Alan, UK Minister of State for International Development, “Yemen: Political Dynamics and the International Policy Framework” November 1, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Meetings/Meeting%20Transcripts/011110duncan.pdf)

Weak government capacity … risk it happening.

Yemen instability is the central locust of piracy –allowing pirates to take over Socotra which is a key base for Gulf of Aden control
Assl 2011 [Nima Khorrami Assl, 7/18, security analyst at Transnational Crisis Project, London. His areas of interest and expertise include the Middle East, Political Islam and De-radicalisation, China, Caucuses, Energy Security and Geopolitics, “The Out of Towner,” http://www.al-majalla.com/en/Blogs/The_Out_of_Towner/article468603.ece?service=print]

That the current … is so puzzling.

Piracy collapses global trade, causes devastating oil spills, and finances terror networks  
Middleton ‘08 [Roger, October, consultant researcher in the Africa Programme at the Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Economic Affairs, "Piracy in Somalia", http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf]

What piracy does … it has escalated.

Ocean collapse causes extinction
Craig 2003 [Robin, professor of law at Indiana University School of Law, Winter, McGeorge Law Review, p. 265-266]

Biodiversity and ecosystem … business as a result.

Global trade solves all power wars and collapse leads to more of them- empirically proven
Griswold 2005 [Daniel, 12/29, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men,” http://www.freetrade.org/node/282]

Buried beneath the … own peace dividend.

Adv 2
First, instability is causing Chinese engagement in Yemen to secure trade and oil routes
Simpfendorfer 2011 [August 23, Ben is an adviser to the China Energy Fund Committee and managing director of Silk Road Associates. He is a China and Middle East specialist, “Yemen's security challenge tests China's foreign policy; Ben Simpfendorfer outlines the considerable risks to Chinese trade and oil supply”, South China Morning Post, Pg. 11]Abraha

Libya's unrest shone …in the Middle East. 

Second, Influence in Yemen is zero sum –Chinese expansionism emboldens aggression towards Taiwan, plan is key to reverse this
Sorenson 2006 [David S., is Professor of International Security Studies. He received his Ph.D. from the School of International Studies at the University of Denver Professor Sorenson was Associate Dean for Academic Programs (2000-2003), and has served as Chair of the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association, and Chair of the International Security and Arms Control Section of the American Political Science and has written numerous articles and book chapters on Middle East politics, defense budget politics, and national security affairs, “Triangular Competition? The U.S., Russia, and China in Yemen”, ebsco]]Abraha

Chinese interests in Yemen … Middle East policy

Third, Yemen is key to securing energy chokepoints - key to hegemony and counterbalancing China
Hallinan 2011 [Conn, March 25, Conn is a columnist for Foreign Policy in Focus, “Is the Libya Intervention Directed at China?”, ebsco]Abraha

In 2009, the … price of the ticket.

And, the US control of the gulf of Aden is key to China containment
Escobar 2010 [Pepe, Jan 13th, Pepe is an analyst, correspondent and journalist for the Asia Times, “Empire reloaded”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA13Ak04.html]Abraha

Yemen could not … the Chinese yuan. 

And, China is attempting to aggressively counterbalance the US now
Yuan 2010  [Jingdong, August , Associate Professor at the Center for International Security Studies in Sydney, Asia Times, Deep  Reasons for China and US to bristle, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LH20Ad01.html]

China's strong reaction … decades to come.

And, the plan solves securing the port of Aden is key to our Asian containment strategy and regional hegemony
Bhadrakumar 2010 [January 9th, Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a distinguished career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, “Obama's Yemeni odyssey targets China”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak03.html]Abraha

Most important, however, …without occupying Yemen. 

This is key to prevent multiple scenarios for nuclear war and global hegemony
Goh 8  [Evelyn, Lecturer in International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the Univ of Oxford, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, “Hierarchy and the role of the United States in the East Asian security order,” 2008 8(3):353-377, Oxford Journals Database]

The centrality of … to be much worse. 

Heg transition to China creates destabilizing arms races, apocalyptic transition wars, authoritarianism and destroys free trade and human rights
Morrison 2011 [Chas, August 12th, Charles Morrison is currently a member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation “America: The Stabilizing Superpower”, http://blog.heritage.org/2011/08/12/america-the-stabilizing-superpower/]Abraha

However, American power … the global economy.

And, war over Taiwan is the most probable scenario for extinction – the US will get involved
Tucker 2005 [Nancy, professor at Georgetown University, “Dangerous strait: the U.S.TaiwanChina crisis”, p. google books]

At the beginning … people of Taiwan. 

War will go nuclear and their china war good offense doesn’t apply, we’d lose
Farrell 2011 [Paul, February 8th, PhD in Psychology and a Juris doctor in Psychology. writes the column on behavioral economics, the author of nine books on economics and psychology, executive vice president of the Financial News Network; and associate editor of the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, “Secret China war plan: trillions in U.S. debt Commentary: Today an economic battle; later, combat”, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/secret-china-war-plan-trillions-in-us-debt-2011-02-08?pagenumber=1]Abraha

Aug. 9, 2015, 0400. China’s war for “…, years in advance.

And, failure to contain China causes World war 3
Krauthammer 1995 [Charles, 7/31, “why we must contain china” Time Magazine, http://jcgi.pathfinder.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,983245,00.html]

Does containment mean … of the 21st century.

The plan signals support for the opposition in Yemen locking in cooperation and influence
Florek ’11 (Adam, Analyst at GPS Analysis, “American-Yemeni Relations: Precarious Prospects” June 24, http://gpsanalysis.com/?p=591)

In the months …t position of influence.

And, absent U.S. assistance the transition to democracy will cause instability and piracy
Makovsky et al 2011 (Michael Makovsky, Blaise Misztal, and Jonathan Ruhe are the Foreign Policy Director, Associate Director, and Policy Analyst respectively at the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Spring Trap”, The New Republic, March 31, http://www.tnr.com/article/86043/yemen-tunisia-egypt-arab-uprising?page=0,0)

Regardless of his … of remaining Yemen.

The plan is key to create good governance practices and solve corruption
Greenfield, ’10 (Danya, Program Officer with the Middle East and North Africa division with the Center for International Private Enterprise, “Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen” January 14, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html)

U.S. policy should …with tribal groups.

The United States is blocking peaceful democratic transition in Yemen now
Karman, ’11 (Tawakkol, Leader of Yemen’s Democratic Youth Movement and founder of Women Journalists Without Chains, “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution” June 18, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all)

We have reached …development and stability.