Democratic transition in Bahrain is inevitable, the only question is whether it will be gradual or fast and violent.
Tupy, August 16, 2011 (Marian L., Policy Analyst with the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, The Wall Street Journal, “The Bahraini Experiment”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903392904576509801902607900.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)
Democratic protests in early 2012 were met with massive human rights violations on the part of the Bahraini Defence Force.
Licht, 2011 (Lotte, EU Director of Human Rights Watch, March 29, “The Violence in Bahrain Was No Accident”, http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/03/29/violence-bahrain-was-no-accident)
And, there is a perception that the US Military has acted to undermine the Shiite majority and to protect the interests of the Sunni ruling party while ignoring human rights violations, which has led to Shiite resentment against the 5th Fleet.
Slackman, 2011 (Michael, February 21, New York Times Berlin Bureau Chief, New York Times, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Towards Bahraini Shiites is Described” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?)
And, if this posture continues, the Shiite majority will drive out the 5th Fleet when they take power.
Democracy Digest, 2011 (3/7, “Bahrain Crisis presents US with ‘stark choice’ – Riyadh or reform?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/03/9795/)
There are three impact scenarios:
- Piracy
Fifth Fleet is key to checking piracy in international waters
CBS News 10 (9/7, “U.S. To Lead Anti-Piracy Naval Patrols”, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/08/world/main4708429.shtml)
Piracy will collapse the global economy
Jerusalem Post 2008 (“Column One: Civilization walks the plank,” http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1226404794131&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull)
Economic downturn causes multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict.
Ferguson, 2009 (Niall, Professor of History at Harvard, “The Axis of Upheaval”, Foreign Policy, March/April)
2. Iran
Fifth Fleet key to check Iranian takeover of Bahrain
WSJ 2-18-11
(“U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet’s Base”, http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html)
Iran takeover of Bahrain leads to direct Saudi-Iran war with American draw-in
NYT 3-19-11
(“The Proxy Battle in Bahrain”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/ 20proxy.html?pagewanted=all, SRM)
Leads to World War III, threatens humanity
Chossudovsky 07 (Michel, prof of econ @ University of Ottowa, 1/21, “The Unthinkable: The US-Israeli Nuclear War on Iran”, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context =viewArticle&code=CHO20070121&articleId=4536, SRM)
3. US Hegemony
The Fifth Fleet is Key to US Hegemony
The US Navy, 2009 (August 20, “US Fifth Fleet Executes Maritime Strategy”, http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=47773)
Loss of US Hegemony leads to a world of chaos, culminating in nuclear war.
Ferguson, 2004 (Niall, Foreign Policy Analyst, "A World Without Power," Washington, Jul/August 2004
Iss. 143, pg. 32)
Thus the plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase democracy assistance for Bahrain by tripling its IMET funding to 2.1 million dollars in FY 2012.
IMET empirically solves for human rights abuses committed by the military.
Lipton 98 (David, former undersecretary of international affairs for the Department of the Treasury, Testimony before Congress, “Foreign Operations, Export Financing, and Related Programs Appropriations for 1999,” Wednesday February 11, 1998, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-105hhrg49109/html/CHRG-105hhrg49109.htm)
IMET solves for the Fifth Fleet—it creates stronger relations between militaries which means we’ll have more access to bases and resources.
FAS 2 (The Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/asmp/campaigns/training/IMET2.html, 2002)
