Card cites will be added later.
Observation 1: Bureaucracies create a crisis in democracy assistance programs
The F Process devastated USAID’s already bureaucraticized procedures preventing responsiveness and thereby solvency in all USAID programs from implementation to evaluation
Carothers in 9 {Thomas--Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance The Challenge of USAID http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf P22-25}
Egyptian policies reflect the confusion of our democracy assistance efforts to evaluate events and not systems. Misattributions about the system must be studied and corrected.
Taleb & Blyth 11 (Nassim Nicholas, Mark, Foreign Affairs; “The Black Swan of Cairo” How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous, May/Jun2011, Vol. 90 Issue 3, p33-39, 7p)
Now is the key time for major reform of assistance programs. Even the Secretary of State acknowledged that our global strategy is not viable without policy coherence
Atwood in 10 {J. Brian—Dean,Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Administrator of the U.S.AID 1993-99 Elevating Development Assistance PRISM 1, no. 3 http://www.ndu.edu/press/elevating-development-assistance.html}
USAID recognized the shortcomings and installed a new Country Team Strategy to address evaluation and program issues
USAID Democracy & Governance 2010 {May 13, http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/democracy_and_governance/technical_areas/dg_office/evaluation.html}
The current EDGE program is insufficient. The 3 year strategy doesn’t go far enough as Middle East examples prove.
Bodine in 2010 {Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K.-Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001. PRISM 1, no. 3 June http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/prism1-3/Prism_43-58_Bodine.pdf}
Now is the key time for major reform of assistance programs
Atwood in 10 {J. Brian—Dean,Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Administrator of the U.S.AID 1993-99 Elevating Development Assistance PRISM 1, no. 3 http://www.ndu.edu/press/elevating-development-assistance.html
Advantage 1: Suez Canal
Internal divisions won’t sink the Muslim Brotherhood – US assistance key to counter election victories
Trager 11 (Eric Trager, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties July 6, 2011 “Youth Activists Chip Away at Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3381)
Muslim Brotherhood will also shut down the Suez Canal causing massive oil shocks
Hilliker 11 (Joel Hilliker, February 2, 2011, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?,” The Trumpet, http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=7928.6537.0.0)
Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation
Roubini & Setser 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)
Suez closure causes US intervention and escalatory nuclear war
Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February, 13, 2011, “THE DIVISION OF EGYPT: THREATS OF US, ISRAELI, AND NATO MILITARY INTERVENTION?” http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html)
Even brief closure of the Suez Canal collapses the world economy
Brockmeyer 11 (Peter Brockmeyer, studied in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and the Economics Department at the London School of Economics, February 1, 2011, PolicyMic, “The Suez Canal: What Happens If Egypt Shuts It Down?,” http://www.policymic.com/beta/business-economy/suez-canal-what-happens-if-egypt-shuts-it-down)
This leads to Extinction
Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)
Advantage 2: Transition
US assistance key to facilitate democratic transition in Egypt – that spills over to the rest of the region
Kagan & Dunne 11 (Robert, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe AND Michele, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Why Egypt Has to be the U.S. Priority in the Middle East, March 7, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0307_egypt_kagan.aspx, MCL)
Lack of democratic reform will destabilize Egypt, collapse the economy, and undermine U.S. leadership
HRF 10 (Human Rights First, November 24, 2010 “Background Report on Egyptian Civil Society Election Monitoring in Upcoming Elections” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2010/11/24/background-report-on-egyptian-civil-society-election-monitoring-in-upcoming-elections/ MM)
The Middle East is on the brink of a nuclear war
Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Middle East war goes Global
London 10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)
Democracy key to peace in the Middle East
Kirkup 11 (James Democracy is route to peace in Middle East, says David Cameron, The Telegraph, Feb 21, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8339054/Democracy-is-route-to-peace-in-Middle-East-says-David-Cameron.html)
