1nc: KORUS politics

Israel relations 

Turkey CP

Case: transition, econ, solvency

Cites:

Offcase 1

Clean TAA will pass now—Quick passage of FTAs will follow—Obama key

Needham 9/7 (Vicki Needham, September 7, 2011, “Senate Republicans vow to pass TAA, trade deals push for submission of agreements,” The Hill, google)

"If he sends them, they'll be 

AND 

will send the trade accords to Capitol Hill.

Plan costs capital—Causes huge fights in Congress

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid 

AND 

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

Capital key to TAA

Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer, September 2, 2011, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

In addition to the challenge from organized labor

AND 

those trade agreements without TAA," said Trumka.

FTAs are the only way to avoid double dip

Yonhap News 8/10 (August 10, 2011, “U.S. may ratchet up FTA drive amid economic woes: experts,” http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2011/08/10/86/0502000000AEN20110810002200320F.HTML)

A series of economic data from the U

AND 

approval from the legislatures of the two countries.

Extinction

Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col, Tom Bearden, PhD Nuclear Engineering, April 25, 2000, google)

Just prior to the terrible collapse of the 

AND 

or some modified version of it, resulting.

KORUS key to the alliance—Now key 

Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee Chi-dong, August 30, 2011, “Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS,” Yonhap News, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)

A collapse in the United States of a 

AND 

economic presence in East Asia," it added.

Global nuclear war

Monthly Review 1997 (Ogura, Toshimaru; Oh, Ingyu, “Nuclear clouds over the Korean peninsula and Japan” April 1, lexis)

North Korea, South Korea, and Japan 

AND 

would threaten to escalate into a global conflagration.

Extinction

Hayes 2010 (Peter and Michael Hayes Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute and Green, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia” google)

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation 

AND 

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

Offcase 2

U.S.-Israel relations are stable now in the status quo – Washington making a move in the Middle East could upset the balance.

Zvi Bar'el, pub. date: 6-19-2011, Haaretz, “Israel must say yes to Obama,” http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/israel-must-say-yes-to-obama-1.368462 

U.S. President Barack Obama didn't 

AND 

even join any European initiative, however useless." 

If the U.S. were to intervene into the Arab Spring process it would ruin any leverage they would have in the Middle East – U.S.-Israel relations would be strained past the breaking point.

Terra Incognita, pub. date: 2011, “Terra Incognita – Arab Spring Forcing US to Choose Between Longtime Allies,” http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/terra-incognita-arab-spring-forcing-us-to-choose-between-longtime-allies/ 

US policy in the Middle East has long 

AND 

of Beijing’s readiness to pay its own way.

A decline in U.S.-Israeli relations encourages regional aggression. 

Daniel Ayalon, pub. date: 8-30-2005,  Israeli Ambassador to the United States, "The Day after disengagement: what's next for Israel and the Middle East?," Federal News Service. Lexis Nexis

Then I come to this Israel-U

AND 

peaceful moves to the -- in the future.

The impact is nuclear war. 

John Steinbach, pub. date: 3-3-2002, “Israeli Nuclear Weapons: A Threat to Piece,” http://www.converge.org.nz/pma/mat0036.htm

Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of 

AND 

Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration."

Offcase 3

Text: The Republic of Turkey should implement economic reform as dictated by the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund Act. 

Turkey’s DA infrastructure solves best

Negron-Gonzales 2011 (Dr. Melinda Negrón-Gonzales, lecturer of Politics and Society at the University of New Hampshire at Manchester, May 2011, “Building Civil Society after the Arab Spring: Lessons from Turkey,” Encompassing Crescent, http://encompassingcrescent.com/2011/05/building-civil-society-after-the-arab-spring-lessons-from-turkey)

Arab countries are already embedded in Europe-

AND 

breathe new life into its stalled reform process.

Only Turkey alone can solve—Credibility

Kirisci 2010 (Kemal Kirisci, Boğaziçi University, “Diffusing liberal market and democratic values: Assessing Turkey’s ‘soft power’ in transforming its neighborhood,” presented at the American Political Science Annual Meeting, September 2010, online)

As with the “work in progress” 

AND 

in general and the Middle East in particular.

1NC Egypt Econ Resilient

Egyptian economy is diversified and resilient

Dunne et al 2011 (Michele Dunne, Jeffrey Gedmin, Marek Dabrowski, Uri Dadush, Hafez Ghanem, Mara Revkin, Dalibor Rohac, Dessy Roussanova, Michal Safianik, Tarik Yousef, July 2011, “Egypt’s Democratic Transition: Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance,” Carnegie Endowment, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=45131)

Although Egypt faces serious economic challenges, the 

AND 

between leading and lagging regions was actually narrowing.

1NC Egypt Not k to Global Econ

Egypt won’t bring down global recovery

Parkinson 2011 (David Parkinson, February 4, 2011, “Could Egypt destabilize global economy? Markets say no,” Globe and Mail, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/market-lab/could-egypt-destabilize-global-economy-markets-say-no/article1895155/)

The tensions in Egypt are worrisome on several 

AND 

, the danger levels are still far off.

Technology makes econ resilient

The Economist, “The turning point - The global economy” September 22, 2007 p. ln

Yet the global economy has taken some big 

AND 

stability it provides is likely to be permanent.  

An economic depression does not cause war

Lloyd deMause, director of The Institute for Psychohistory, “Nuclear War as an Anti-Sexual Group Fantasy” Updated December 18th 2002, http://www.geocities.com/kidhistory/ja/nucsex.htm

The nation "turns inward" during this 

AND 

, arms expeditures decrease and peace treaties multiply.

1NC No Transition

No transition—Lack of charismatic leaders

Kelsay 2011 (John Kelsay, Bristol Distinguished Professor of Religion and Ethics at Florida State University, “The Limits of the Arab Spring,” Dissent Magazine, June 13, 2011, http://www.dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=500)

Thus when one reads of al-Aswany’s 

AND 

to utilize the institutions through which power flows.

1NC Al-Qaeda Turn

Al-Qaeda will use the plan to rally support

AP 2011 (August 8, 2011, “Al-Qaida leader: US hijacking Egypt's revolution,” google)

Al-Qaida's new leader has accused the 

AND 

raid that killed Osama bin Laden in May.

1NC No Al-Qaeda Nukes

No Al-Qaeda nukes—Recently seized laptops prove

Mueller 2011 (John Mueller, professor of Political Science at Ohio State, August 2, 2011, “The Truth About al Qaeda,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=2)

As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, "

AND 

all the while attracting no attention from outsiders.

No chance they steal one

John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 165-6

There has also been great worry about "

AND 

enter a code and have it go off.

Even if they did – safeguards check

Evan Braden Montgomery, pub. date: 2009, Research Fellow, has published on a range of issues, including alliance politics, nuclear terrorism, military doctrine, and political revolutions,  received a Master of Arts in Foreign Affairs from the Univ. of Virginia, where he is also a doctoral candidate, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), “Nuclear Terrorism Assessing the Threat, Developing a Response,” http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/PubLibrary/R.20090422.Nuclear_Terrorism/R.20090422.Nuclear_Terrorism.pdf  

Despite this large number of weapons, acquiring 

AND 

in their core to fuel a crude IND.

1NC Military Says No

Military will block economic reforms

Kirkpatrick 2011 (David Kirkpatrick, February 17, 2011, “Egyptians Say Military Discourages an Open Economy,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all)

The Egyptian military defends the country, but 

AND 

means there can be no meaningful civilian oversight.”

Say no—Public and government

Nasr 9/1 (Vali Nasr, September 1, 2011, “Beyond Good Politics, Egypt Needs Economic Remodeling,” Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-02/beyond-political-reform-egypt-will-need-economic-restructuring-vali-nasr.html)

Egypt faces a vortex of poverty and instability 

AND 

has been reluctant to do any of this.