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Soft Power 1AC

Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide internet access support for Syria.

Syrian Internet being restricted now as a result of protests
By Jonathan Browning Bloomberg “Syrian Internet Networks Shut Down as Protests Intensify” Online June 03, 2011
About two-thirds of Syria’s … opposition groups. 

US should provide internet support- keeps protests peaceful, key to success
Radwan Ziadeh is a former Reagan-Fascell
AND
and Western-friendly’ of Arab Spring uprisings”
The democratic West has provided substantial assistance to
AND
searching for friends who might someday become allies.  
 
US tech is successful- it’s been modeled in Afghanistan
JAMES GLANZ and JOHN MARKOFF Published: June 12, 2011  “U.S. Underwrites Internet Detour Around Censors” NYT Online
The Obama administration is …., to their governments and to the world.” 

There’s a new age in American diplomacy – the Internet is key to new US projections of soft power
Dr Ellen Hallams King's College London,  Joint
AND
BATTLE FOR IDEAS & US FOREIGN POLICY” Online
On 11 September 2001 (9/11
AND
combine it with information strategies and public  diplomacy.        

Key to heg
Matthew  Fraser, pub. date: 2003, PhD in political science from Institut d' Etudes Politiques de Paris, former Editor-in-Chief of National Post, Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire,” p.9-13, Google Books
The central thesis in the pages that follow
AND
power arsenal contains awesome weapons of mass distraction.

Hegemony controls the escalation of all major wars.
Robert Lieber, pub. date: 2005, is Prof. of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown Univ., “The American Era: Power and Strategy for the 21st Century,” p. 53-4, Google Books
Withdrawal from foreign commitments might seem to be
AND
and civilization’s retreat into a few fortified enclaves.”

Increasing U.S. soft power is key to preventing a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
David E. Morey, pub. date: 2002, Chair of the Independent Task Force on Public Diplomacy sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, Prof. of International Affairs @ Columbia University, The San-Diego Union Tribune, “The battle for hearts and minds; U.S. public diplomacy should be more than public relations,” Lexis Nexis
Today, it is a truism to say the world has …. policies only to world leaders.

WMD attack is likely
GSN ’10 Global security newswire “WMD Terrorism remains grave threat, U.S. says” Online
The possibility that a terrorist organization might launch
AND
materials as well as engineering and scientific expertise."   

Causes extinction
Toon et al ‘7 O.B, R.P Turco, A. Robock, C. Bardeen, and G.L. stenchikov April 19.  “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism”
To an increasing extent, people are congregating …. the present scenarios and physical outcomes.  

IRAN 1AC
Continued regional subversion key to Iran’s influence- they are quelling protests in Syria to maintain power
By JOHN BOLTON APRIL 15, 2011 “Iranian Winter Could Chill the Arab Spring” WSJ, Online
Since the "Arab Spring" began four months ….. Hamas, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Muslim Brotherhood, is now free to transfer arms and operatives between Gaza and Egypt, sowing trouble in both places.
Iran exerting influence in Syria now—specifically internet blockage
Abdo 11 (How Iran Keeps Assad in Power in Syria, Geneive Abdo, August 25, 2011, Foreign Affairs. GENEIVE ABDO is the director of the Iran program at the Century Foundation and the National Security Network and the co-author of Answering Only to God: Faith and Freedom in Twenty-First-Century Iran. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68230/geneive-abdo/how-iran-keeps-assad-in-power-in-syria)
It should not be surprising, then….security services to fight against the protestors.

U.S. support key to solve shutdown and opposition success
Karlin and Tabler 11 (MARA, INSTRUCTOR OF STRATEGIC STUDIES AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY'S SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, Andrew J., fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. THE TOM LANTOS HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION HOLDS A HEARING ON "HUMAN RIGHTS IN SYRIA" July 12, Tuesday, lexis.
 KARLIN: Mr. Chairman, to
AND
and democracy there found ways to do so. 

Change in Syria stabilizes the region and offsets Iran’s regional influence
By Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Thursday, June 23, 2011 “Iran and Syria: Next Steps”
Four months ago, I had the privilege …. similar clarity and determination. 

Opposition success key to check Iran influence and prolif
Kelly Maggio Young Leaders Program at The Heritage
AND
Offers Opportunity to Split Syria from Iran” Online
The direct threat posed by Iran’s acquisition of
AND
States is fully committed to stopping Iran’s ambitions.
 Iran prolif causes ME prolif
Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya,
Israel 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply
AND
2011.  Jerusalem center for Public Affairs, Online
Along with the question of Iran’s own behavior
AND
countries (Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco). 

Nuclear Middle East most likely place for war
Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya,
Israel 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” Strategic Perspectives, Number 7 2011.  Jerusalem center for Public Affairs, Online
So how will this polynuclear Middle East…. and “counter-value” threats.
Expanded Iranian influence causes miscalculation and war
Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international
AND
Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html
That Iran stands today able to challenge or
AND
severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
This is most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
The basis of the argument that escalation is …. attack and conflict escalation.

Solvency
Communication technologies catalyze political movements – increases transparency and accountability
Fontaine and Rogers June 2011 –Richard Fontaine is a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Will Rogers is a Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security (Internet Freedom, A Foreign Policy Imperative in the Digital Age, Center for a New American Security, June 2011, http://cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_InternetFreedom_FontaineRogers_0.pdf, MCL)
In a sense, the Internet represents just
AND
the protests had been confined only to cyberspace.

Communication technologies key to organizing protests for change among loosely coordinated groups – empirically proven
Shirky 11 (Clay, Professor of New Media at New York University, The Political Power of Social Media, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb2011, Vol. 90 Issue 1, p28-41, EBSCO)
On January 17, 2001, during the
AND
went viral online in a matter of hours.

Opposition is pro-U.S.—U.S. action key
Lee Smith is a Visiting Fellow at the
AND
46 August 29, 2011 Monday, lexis.
Obama has adopted a Syria policy with ambitious
AND
that goal, we need to achieve it.

Opposition coalescing now—won’t be hijacked—Regime and Brotherhood have no influence
Al-Hatem 11 (A new opposition
AND
/syria-opposition-young-protesters)
Thankfully, events in Syria and the rise
AND
new vision for Syria becomes ever more likely.

1nc: Cap/Neolib K
EU CP
Transport bill politics

2nr: K

2ac Cites:

Soft Power Key
Hard power becoming irrelevant—only causes overstretch
Jayantha Dhanapala, pub. date: 2-12-2011, is a former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs and a former Ambassador of Sri Lanka to the USA and to the UN Office in Geneva, he is currently Chairman of the UN University Council and the 11th President of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, a member of the Governing Board of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), he chaired several the NPT Review and Extension Conference, and is also a former Director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, The Island, “Hard power and soft power,” http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=18225
The eclipse of hard power is not going
AND
thought is much greater security than another submarine."

Iran heg ext.
Iran heg causes conflicts in Central Asia- major power draw in
William Chadwell et al  Marvin Feuer John Sigler Judith Yaphe April 13, 2005 Iran Watch Roundtable “Iran Watch Roundtable: Living with a nuclear-armed Iran” http://www.iranwatch.org/ourpubs/roundtables/rt-iranianbomb-090105.htm
Iran could also become more assertive in Central
AND
Russia’s long-standing influence in the region. 

A2 Iran Defense/Turns
Even if Iran is responsible, proliferation still dangerous—(also stability/deterrence takes long time/doesn’t solve)
Joseph Cirincione, Senior Vice President for National Security and International Affairs at the Center for American Progress, and Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, where he specializes in U.S. strategic policy and the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons, March 2007. “Contain and Engage A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran,” CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/pdf/iran_report.pdf
On the one hand, Iran could adopt
AND
increase their support to groups such as Hezbollah.

EU
Lack of transparency turns solvency
Gerald M. Steinberg (founder of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation and teaches in the Department of Political Studies at Bar Ilan University) September 2010 “EU Funding for Political NGOs: Examining Soft Power Impact on Arab-Israel Peace Efforts” http://www.ngo-monitor.org/article/eu_funding_for_political_ngos_examining_soft_power_impact_on_arab_israel_peace_efforts
For unknown reasons, basic information on selection
AND
processes for the NGOs entrusted with EU money.

EU advancement causes multipolarity—global conflict
Henry A. Kissinger and Lawrence H. Summers, Co-Chairs, 2004 “Renewing the Atlantic Partnership,” http://www.princeton.edu/~amoravcs/library/task.pdf
The debate over multipolarity transcends the tactical issue
AND
common interest as compatible with the national interest. 

U.S-EU Coop is key to effective solvency
Roland Dannreuther. “European Union Foreign and Security Policy: Towards a neighbourhood Strategy.” New York, Routledge. 2004  p.196- 197
As Roland Dannreuther demonstrates in this volume (
AND
European governments or with a relatively incoherent EU. 

Perm solves
Mona Yacoubian (a special adviser to the United States Institute of Peace’s Special Initiative on the Muslim World, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies) October 2004 “Promoting Middle East Democracy:  European Initiatives” http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr127.pdf
Important complementarities as well as frictions characterize the
AND
achieve far more if coordinated than if undertaken separately

EU fails—studies that include syria
Ronny Patz (political scientist with a focus on EU affairs and political networks at the University of Potsdam) November 2010 “Journal-istic: Does EU democracy assistance fail?” http://polscieu.ideasoneurope.eu/2010/11/08/journal-istic-does-eu-democracy-assistance-fail/
 [I]n democracy assistance the
AND
the world and in particular in its neighbourhood.

(Framework) 

 Specificity first– empirical work and descriptive analysis solve best
Colin S. Gray, pub. date: 2003, Review of International Studies, 29, 285–295 Copyright © British International Studies Association
I interpret Payne’s argument to mean that a
AND
should be writing in praise of American strategy.

 K
Even if assistance is bad, what it solves is good—Failure to promote democracy results in Extinction
Larry Diamond  (Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover Institute) 1995 Promoting Democracy in the 1990s
This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to
AND
of international security and prosperity can be built. 

Neoliberal democracy solves extinction
Henry Teune, Political Science Department at the University of Pennsylvania, May, 2002 “Global Democracy”, The Annals of The American Academy of Political and Social Science, 581 Annals 22, Lexis
During the past three decades, social scientists
AND
century's end, following the spread of democracy.  

Colonialism key to US hegemony
Rachel Bailey Jones 7 (JONES, RACHEL BAILEY, Ph.D. (Re)Envisioning Self and Other: Subverting Visual Orientalism Through the Creation of Postcolonial Pedagogy. (2007)
American global power has been built since World
AND
of Islam and women, see Chapter 7). 

Democracy solves genocide
Lynn-Jones 98 (Sean M., Editor, International Security; Series Editor, Belfer Center Studies in International Security; "Why the United States Should Spread Democracy", Discussion Paper 98-07, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, March 1998; http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/2830/why_the_united_states_should_spread_democracy.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2F1809%2Fpaths_to_peace)

There are two reasons for the relative absence
AND
will not use violence to repress opponents.31

Cap Transition Now

Capitalism is self-correcting its excesses now- solves the impacts
Steven Pearlstein,  Business Columnist for the Washington Post, 2008 Pulitzer Prize for Commentary winner, “Rethinking Capitalism: How Very Enterprising,” Washington Post, October 2, 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100104837.html?wpisrc=newsletter
What's going on here is not simply the
AND
profit making movies about the evils of capitalism.

politics

Obama call for Assad step down non uniques your disads
Huff Post 11 (Obama: Syrian President Assad Must Step Down, 8/18/11 09:13 AM ET, Huffington Post, online.)
After months of stepping gingerly around calls that
AND
had not explicitly called for him to resign.

Bipartisan support for Syrian opposition aid
RJC 11 (House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee scrutinizes Obama record on human rights in Iran and Syria Friday, July 29, 2011 By: Claire Miller, Republican Jewish Coalition, online.)
Republicans and Democrats were mostly unified in the
AND
travel to and from Syria should be imposed.
No internal link—Presidential  political capital doesn’t affect Congress
Dickinson 9 (professor of political science, Middlebury;“Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power”; May 26, 2009; http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/)

What is of more interest to me,
AND
much of anything about what the president wants.  

Won’t pass- can’t reconcile- Republicans have already held up similar aviation bills
Sarah Maslin Nir 9-2-2011 New York Times “Highway Bill Could Face Congressional Gridlock” http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/highway-bill-could-face-congressional-gridlock/
Just over a month after a Congressional stalemate
AND
bill that reduces less from current spending levels. 

Won’t pass- toxic environment
Chris Casteel 9-7-2011 NewsOK “White House warns of job losses if highway bill isn't extended by Congress” http://newsok.com/white-house-warns-of-job-losses-if-highway-bill-isnt-extended-by-congress/article/3601759?custom_click=pod_headline_financial-news
Such extensions are typically routine. The current
AND
current environment on transportation spending is so toxic.”

The U.S. economy doesn’t affect the global economy
Liu Hong, pub. date: 8-25-08, staff writer for Xinhua News, “Rise of emerging markets reshapes global economic map,” accessed: 8-25-08, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/25/content_9706441.htm  
In the past, a sharp slowdown in
AND
, according to data provided by the IMF.
An economic depression does not cause war
Lloyd deMause, director of The Institute for Psychohistory, “Nuclear War as an Anti-Sexual Group Fantasy” Updated December 18th 2002, http://www.geocities.com/kidhistory/ja/nucsex.htm
The nation "turns inward" during this
AND
, arms expeditures decrease and peace treaties multiply.

1nc: EU CP
Transport bill politics
Imperialism K
Heg bad

2ac:

Heg
American hegemony is unchallenged in all dimensions.
Zbigniew Brzezinski (Counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a professor of foreign policy @ Johns Hopkins) 2004 “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership” p vii-viii
At the outset of the twenty-first
AND
will not soon face, a global peer.

Opposition supports U.S. goals
Ridding Syria of a despot, By Elliott Abrams, Published: March 25, 2011, The Washington Post, online. Mr. Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009.
The demise of this murderous clan is in
AND
land bridge to Hezbollah, when Assad falls.

U.S. hegemony prevents global war, arms races and genocides*
Bradley A. Thayer (Associate Professor in the Dept. of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University) 2007 American Empire: A Debate, “Reply to Christopher Layne” p 108
The fourth critical fact to consider is that
AND
States is an era of peace and stability.

EU CP (above)

Politics (rest above)
Obama’s spending pc on FTAs now
Belgum 8/19 (Deborah Belgum, Senior Editor, August 19, 2011, “Obama Administration Pushing Swift Passage of Free-Trade Pacts,” Apparel News, http://www.apparelnews.net/news/manufacturing/110819-Obama-Administration-Pushing-Swift-Passage-of-Free-Trade-Pacts)
The three pending free-trade agreements with
AND
on most goods traded between the two countries.

Imperialism K
Specificity first– empirical work and descriptive analysis solve best
Colin S. Gray, pub. date: 2003, Review of International Studies, 29, 285–295 Copyright © British International Studies Association
I interpret Payne’s argument to mean that a
AND
should be writing in praise of American strategy.

Link turn, Opposition is pro-U.S.—U.S. action key
Lee Smith is a Visiting Fellow at the Hudson Institute. “Assad's End,” The Weekly Standard Vol. 16 No. 46 August 29, 2011 Monday, lexis.
Obama has adopted a Syria policy with ambitious
AND
that goal, we need to achieve it.

Colonialism key to US hegemony
Rachel Bailey Jones 7 (JONES, RACHEL BAILEY, Ph.D. (Re)Envisioning Self and Other: Subverting Visual Orientalism Through the Creation of Postcolonial Pedagogy. (2007)
American global power has been built since World
AND
of Islam and women, see Chapter 7). 

Life without value is better than death
Kenneth Waltz, pub. date: 1959, Institute of War and Peace Studied; Father of realism, Man, The State, and War
St. Augustine had observed the importance of
AND
behaves with courage and high-mindedness. Instead 

Plan

The United States federal government should provide Internet access technology to Syrian democratic opposition groups.

Advantage 1—Credibility

Syrian Internet being restricted now as a result of protests

By Jonathan Browning, Bloomberg “Syrian Internet Networks Shut Down as Protests Intensify” Online June 03, 2011

About two-thirds of Syria’s Internet networks

AND

are arms and ammunition confiscated from opposition groups.

US should provide internet support—key to success

Radwan Ziadeh is a former Reagan-Fascell fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy. June 8, 2011 DemDigest Online ‘Democracies must support ‘the most liberal and Western-friendly’ of Arab Spring uprisings”

The democratic West has provided substantial assistance to

AND

searching for friends who might someday become allies. 

US tech is successful—modeled in Afghanistan

JAMES GLANZ and JOHN MARKOFF NYT Published: June 12, 2011  “U.S. Underwrites Internet Detour Around Censors” Online

The Obama administration is leading a global effort

AND

, to their governments and to the world.”

U.S. Middle East leadership on the brink now

Phillips 2010 (Chris, writer and analyst of Middle Eastern Affairs, PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics, specializing in contemporary Syria and Jordan. Monday 31 May, “US hegemony in Middle East is ending” The Guardian, Online.)

Yet even though the return to cold war

AND

hegemony in the Middle East could be ending.

Two internal links:

First the internet—it’s key to future projections of soft power

Hallams 2010 Ellen, Department of Defence Studies at King's College London; Joint Services Command and Staff College Paper presented to the Political Studies Association Annual Conference,  Edinburgh, 30 March,. “DIGITAL DIPLOMACY:  THE INTERNET, THE BATTLE FOR IDEAS & US FOREIGN POLICY” Online

On 11 September 2001 (9/11

AND

combine it with information strategies and public  diplomacy.       

Developing soft power through information sharing is key to leadership in the coming information age

Joseph S. Nye, 2004, former assistant secretary of defense and president of Harvard's Kennedy school of government, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, p. 133-4, Google Books

In the global information age, the attractiveness

AND

the information age. We cannot afford that.

Second is perception:

Failure to act on Syria risks emboldening enemies and U.S. leadership collapse

Werz 11 (Syrian Violence Requires U.S. Response, By Michael Werz, Matthew Duss, and Tyler Evans, June 17, 2011. 1Center for American Progress, Michael Werz is a Senior Fellow at American Progress where his work focuses on climate migration and security and transatlantic foreign policy including Turkey. Matthew Duss is a Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress, and Tyler Evans is an intern with the National Security team. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/syria_response.html.

While the options to resolve the crisis are

AND

in the complicated world of diplomatic double standards.

And, the impact:

U.S. leadership empirically solves great power conflict and extinction and is key to peace in the coming multipolar transition

Barnett 11 (The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads BY THOMAS P.M. BARNETT | 07 MAR 2011 COLUMN, World Politics Review, Online.  Barnett, PhD, military geostrategist who is a Distinguished Scholar at the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy at the University of Tennessee and was a Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College as well as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense.)

Events in Libya are a further reminder for

AND

the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Advantage 2—Regional Stability

Arab Spring subversion key to Iran’s influence

By JOHN BOLTON 2011 “Iranian Winter Could Chill the Arab Spring” WSJ, Online

Since the "Arab Spring" began four

AND

and Egypt, sowing trouble in both places.

Especially in Syria—specifically internet blockage

Abdo, 11 (How Iran Keeps Assad in Power in Syria, Geneive Abdo, August 25, 2011, Foreign Affairs. GENEIVE ABDO is the director of the Iran program at the Century Foundation and the National Security Network and the co-author of Answering Only to God: Faith and Freedom in Twenty-First-Century Iran. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68230/geneive-abdo/how-iran-keeps-assad-in-power-in-syria)

It should not be surprising, then,

AND

the security services to fight against the protestors.

U.S. support key to solve shutdown and opposition success

Karlin and Tabler, 11 (MARA, INSTRUCTOR OF STRATEGIC STUDIES AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY'S SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, Andrew J., fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. THE TOM LANTOS HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION HOLDS A HEARING ON "HUMAN RIGHTS IN SYRIA" July 12, Tuesday, lexis.)

 KARLIN: Mr. Chairman, to

AND

and democracy there found ways to do so.

Opposition success key to check Iran influence and prolif

Kelly Maggio Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation June 30, 2011 ““Arab Spring” Offers Opportunity to Split Syria from Iran” Online

The direct threat posed by Iran’s acquisition of

AND

States is fully committed to stopping Iran’s ambitions.

Iran prolif causes Mideast prolif—deterrence won’t check

Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya,

Israel 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” Strategic Perspectives, Number 7 2011.  Jerusalem center for Public Affairs, Online

Along with the question of Iran’s own behavior

AND

countries (Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco).

Nuclear Middle East most likely place for war

Bar 11 (Dr. Shmuel is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Bar served for thirty years in the Israeli government, first in the IDF Intelligence and then in the Israeli Office of the Prime Minister. During this period, he specialized in Islamic fundamentalism and the Jihadi movement and served in diplomatic postings. Since 2002, he has headed research projects--some of them for U.S. government agencies--and published extensively on issues relating to the Middle East, including radical Islamic ideology, Iranian defense doctrine, leadership and negotiation behavior, Syrian leadership and the Ba’ath party, Jordan, and the Palestinians. He holds a Ph.D. in History of the Middle East from Tel-Aviv University. Israel 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” Strategic Perspectives, Number 7 2011.  Jerusalem center for Public Affairs, Online)

So how will this polynuclear Middle East function

AND

” and “counter-value” threats.

Expanded Iranian influence causes miscalculation and war

Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU Feb 06, 2007 UPI “Ending Iranian Defiance” http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html

That Iran stands today able to challenge or

AND

severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

US opposition assistance is key to solve crackdown and sectarian conflict

Posted By John Hannah, a senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. John served on former Vice President Dick Cheney's national security affairs staff from 2001-2009, including as the vice president's national security advisor during the Bush administration's second term. John's government service also includes two stints at the State Department during the administrations of George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.  Wednesday, May 11, 2011 “Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster” Foreign Policy Magazine, Online.

As proved tragically the case with Iran in

AND

, we must, try to do better.

That sectarian conflict spills over—great power escalation

By VALI NASR, professor at Tufts University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly” Published: August 27, 2011

Syria today stands at the edge of such

AND

Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.

Solvency

Collapse inevitable—defections, collapsing econ, and Turkey—fast U.S. action solves violence

Abrams 11 (How will Assad fall? August 29th, 2011 04:31 PM ET, By Elliott Abrams, CFR.org. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/29/how-will-assad-fall/; Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, served in foreign policy positions for two U.S. Presidents, master’s degree in international relations from London School of Economics, J.D. from Harvard Law.)

It is easy to say that with Gadhafi

AND

a great favor to the people of Syria.

Collapse will be slow and violent now—U.S. must act quickly to change regional politics and get Assad out

Doran and Shaikh 11 (Michael S. Doran is senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution. And Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. 2011 “Getting Serious in Syria” The American Interest, Online)

Consequently, we should expect the regime to

AND

Assad to go, and to go soon.

Communication technologies catalyze political movements – increase transparency and accountability

Fontaine and Rogers 2011 June –Richard Fontaine is a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Will Rogers is a Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security (Internet Freedom, A Foreign Policy Imperative in the Digital Age, Center for a New American Security, June 2011, http://cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_InternetFreedom_FontaineRogers_0.pdf, MCL)

In a sense, the Internet represents just

AND

the protests had been confined only to cyberspace.