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Topicality Increase 1NC
A. Increase requires making something previously existing greater.
Buckley et al., 2006 (Jeremiah,
AND
v. Charles Burr et al., google)
First, the court said that the ordinary
AND
the words around it”) (citation omitted).
B. Violation: the AFF creates a NEW form of democracy assistance for Yemen.
C. Standards.

1. Limits- previously existing forms of assistance create a stable, finite literature base, which increases argument depth and clash. New forms of democracy assistance could include electoral assistance for distant or hypothetical elections, obscure transparency measures, or oversight for random democratic actions.
   2. Core NEG ground- the NEG should be able to reform current programs, to test the word “increase” in the resolution. These CPs are key to topic education and specific NEG strategy.
   D. Topicality is a basic AFF burden that protects competitive equity.

TAA 1NC (Korea)
TAA will pass now, FTAs will follow—Cloture on Monday—Obama key
Ryan 9/16 (Josiah Ryan, “Cloture vote scheduled on Trade Adjustment Assistance,” The Hill, google)
The Senate is set to take a preliminary
AND
congressional Democrats have made it a top priority.
Plan costs capital—Causes huge fights in Congress
Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)
The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid
AND
to justify nation-building in foreign countries."
Capital key to TAA
Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer, September 2, 2011, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
In addition to the challenge from organized labor
AND
those trade agreements without TAA," said Trumka.
KORUS key to the alliance—Now key
Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee
AND
/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)
A collapse in the United States of a
AND
economic presence in East Asia," it added.
Global nuclear war
Monthly Review 1997 (Ogura, Toshimaru;
AND
peninsula and Japan” April 1, lexis)
North Korea, South Korea, and Japan
AND
would threaten to escalate into a global conflagration.
Extinction
Hayes 2010 (Peter and Michael Hayes Executive
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the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia” google)
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation
AND
that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
Korea Impact 2NC
KORUS key to deter North Korea aggression—now is the key time
Riley 2010 (Bryan Riley, Heritage Foundation
AND
Foundation” November 13, 2010, google)
The economic case for the South Korea–
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back one of our country’s key strategic allies.
High risk of fast escalation and miscalc now
Freedman 8/10 (Uri Freedman,
AND
-and-south-korea/41082/)
Today has brought disturbing news from the always
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its own military to counter South Korean drills."
Deterrence breakdown now—Weak alliance perception
Jimbo 8/13 (Ken Jimbo,
AND
-korea-fail-in-2010/)
The sinking of the Cheonan and shelling of
AND
there was a margin for even further escalation.

KORUS Key to Alliance
KORUS key to regional security
Seok-ho 8/31 (Kang
AND
/news/latest-news/18359)
According to a non-partisan think tank
AND
, while Korea benefited in pork and pharmaceuticals.

Trade Mod
KORUS key to prevent global trade wars
Sang-Keun 2006 (Byun Sang-
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.php3?id_article=3746)
When the world is making strenuous efforts to
AND
the North American Free Trade Agreement was reached.

Trade wars are nuclear
Spicer 1996 (Michael Member of the British
AND
Challenge From the East, p. 121)
The choice facing the West today is much
AND
be at a premium in the years ahead.

TAA Will Pass
TAA will pass—Sufficient GOP support
Chocola 9/15 (Chris Chocola,
AND
Republicans might support,” The Hill, google)
Some Republicans in Congress may go along with
AND
submit them unless TAA is assured of passage.
Will pass—Momentum
Chi-dong 9/14 (Lee
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ratification of FTAs,” Yonhap News, google)
U.S. and South Korean officials
AND
way for Congress to work on the FTAs.
Will pass—Votes
Needham 9/14 (Vicki Needham,
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move trade deals,” The Hill, google)
“We’ve got to move forward on this
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the votes to secure passage in both chambers.
Will pass—Obama key
Palmer 9/13 (Doug Palmer,
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action on trade deals,” Reuters, google)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Tuesday said
AND
2009 reforms with two key members of Congress.

LINKS
Even if helping Yemen is popular, democracy assistance costs capital
McInerney 2010 (Stephen McInerney, POMED,
AND
,” Project On Middle East Democracy, online)
While the RGP appears to be an innovative
AND
requested for Yemen, if not exceed it.
DA to Yemen is unpopular
Shephard 2010 (Desmond Shephard, September 19
AND
.com/wordpress/?p=17054)
The United States earlier this month announced that
AND
face the economic, development and security challenges.”

A2 winners win—generic

Winners don’t win—the administration won’t alter its strategy.
HPR, 1-14 (Harvard Political
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President Obama’s Political Capital” 2011, google)
Every move our president takes with respect to
AND
what is left of Obama’s waning political capital.

Winners don’t win—partisanship means the “losing” party gains capital.
Bose, 1-7 (Meena Bose
AND
. Can Obama adapt?” 2011, google)
Second, Obama should listen more. Leading
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and public political capital for policy-making.

A2 dickinson (pc = myth)

Obama bargaining overwhelms ideology—lame duck proves.
Shows, 2010 (Ronnie Shows, former
AND
Securing the Middle” December 27, google)
The President's press conference, just a few
AND
this year's lame duck session from being lame.

Studies prove issues spillover—the president is key.
Soha, 2008 (Eshbaugh-Soha,
AND
26. Retrieved from Political Science Complete database)
Presidential-congressional relations are a central topic
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a primary determinant of presidential success in Congress.

1NC Democracy critique
Democracy assistance’ is a hegemonic neoliberal strategy that masks oppression and violence – turns the aff
Gerald Sussman (Professor of Urban Studies and Planning and Speech Communication at Portland State University) 2006 “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 7 http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe
U.S. interventionism, except perhaps
AND
political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.
Neoliberalism makes multiple scenarios for extinction inevitable
Judith Deutsch (president, Science for Peace. Member of Canadian psychoanalytic society) July/September 2009 “Pestilence, Famine, War, Neoliberalism, and Premature Deaths” Peace Magazine
Worse still, many commentators suggest that there
AND
, and thinly disguised reliance on threatened use.
The alternative is vote negative – This form of rejection is critical to opening space for subaltern voices to speak.  That’s key to challenge neoliberal corporate domination – this is a pre-requisite to any productive ‘democracy assistance’ policy
Mohan J. Dutta (Professor of Communication at Purdue University, Senior Editor of the journal Health Communication and sits on the editorial board of seven journals. He is the Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education in the College of Liberal Arts at Purdue University) 2005 “Civil Society and Public Relations: Not So Civil After All” Journal of Public Relations Research Vol. 17 No. 3 EBSCO
The examples of the Philippines, Chile,
AND
in resistance against acts of marginalization and silencing.

Prestige worldwide 1NC
U.S. prestige is waning in the status quo because of U.S. disengagement from the Arab Spring – lack of actual policy change has decreased our image abroad
Stephen M. Walt, 5-19-2011, is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University, Foreign Policy, “Another major policy speech on the Middle East? Yawn,”  http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/19/another_major_policy_speech_on_the_middle_east_yawn
I know I'm supposed to get excited about
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will just be a lot of eloquent irrelevance.
Fostering democratic transitions in the Arab spring would revitalize U.S. credibility.
Shadi Hamid, 4-26-2011, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Brookings, “Arabic The Struggle for Middle East Democracy,” http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx?rssid=LatestFromBrookings&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FLatestFromBrookings+%28Brookings%3A+Latest+From+Brookings%29
The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia
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2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.
This ensures rogue state backlash
James Carafano, 8-11-2009, PhD, Assistant Director of The Heritage Foundation’s Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, and a Senior Research Fellow for defense and homeland security issues, Family Security Matters, “Obama’s ‘Soft Power’ Strategy Makes U.S. Look Weak,” http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.3967/pub_detail.asp
Last week, Washington seemed to lose more
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countries to be more, not less belligerent.
Global nuclear war – independently turns the aff.
Paul Dibb, 8-15-2006, Emeritus Prof of IR @ Australian National University, Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), As one nuclear flashpoint reaches a lull, another simmers away, Lexis Nexis
NOW that the building blocks for achieving a
AND
between Iran and Israel in the Middle East.

2NC

A2 No link
The U.S. fostering pro-democratic reforms in Arab Spring countries would radically increase our influence and prestige.
John Hannah, 4-4-2011, is a former national-security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, National Review Online, “End of the Dream: Obama and the Middle East,” http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/263794/end-dream-obama-and-middle-east-john-hannah
Multiple muses seemed responsible for the badly misguided
AND
for the final two years of his term.
Democracy assistance in Yemen would promote U.S. interests in the region – increasing our prestige.
SSI (Strategic Studies Institute), 2-15-2011, Defence Talk, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security,” http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/
The United States is currently deeply concerned with
AND
key U.S. and Western interests.
Obama has to be firm in pushing for democratic assistance in the Middle East or our soft power will completely collapse.
Rizwan Asghar, 5-24-2011, The News, “Obama and the ME,” http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=48765&Cat=9  
An analysis of Obama’s speech must be guided
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of mutual mistrust and antagonism will be reinforced.
Investment and promotion of democracy in the Arab Spring would boost U.S. soft power – the only challenge is the resolve to make it happen.
Gavin Hewitt, 5-26-2011, Europe editor, BBC News Europe, “Obama develops Mid-East strategy with Europeans,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13562109  
Obama wants long-term investment and a
AND
means and the will to make a difference.
A2 hypocricy –
U.S. democracy assistance will rectify blows to U.S. prestige that were brought about from Middle East hypocrisy.
Lee Smith, Summer 2011, is a senior editor at The Weekly Standard and the author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations, The Middle East Quarterly, Vol. 18 No. 3, “Weakening Washington's Middle East Influence,” http://www.meforum.org/2972/us-middle-east-influence
If Tehran loses its one Arab ally in
AND
and perhaps eventually material support to their coreligionists.
A2 plan not key to cred—
U.S. prestige is low – appeasing in the Middle East.
David Bukay, 2-8-2011, Ph.D. is at the School of Political Science, the University of Haifa, American Thinker, “Misconception or Betrayal? The U.S., Egypt, and Iran,” http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/misconception_or_betrayal_the.html
If the Egyptian military regime falls, Obama
AND
," and is expected to fly into exile.
U.S. image is at rock bottom – an apologetic stance towards Middle East democracy.
Elliott Abrams, 7-13-2011, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, “0 for 2: Obama's Failed Middle East Policy,” http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/0-2-obamas-failed-middle-east-policy/p25477
The returns are now in. In Egypt
AND
strength and enemies have contempt for any weakness.
A2 Soft power key to solve rogue nations—
Soft power doesn’t translate into any positive foreign policy change.
Daniel W. Drezner, 8-3-2011, is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Foreign Policy, “Has the USA lost its AAA superpower rating?,” http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/category/wordpress_tag/soft_power
First, I've come to look at concepts
AND
ways in order to get re-elected.
An increase in soft power would give the government in China the leverage necessary to raise the value of their currency – China is reluctant to reevaluate due to political resistance.
Joseph S.  Nye, 3-14-2011, Ph.D. in political science from Harvard, was Director of the Center for International Affairs, was Deputy to the Undersecretary of State for Security Assistance, chaired the National Security Council Group on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, was chairman of the National Intelligence Council, served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize by Princeton University and the Humphrey Prize by the American Political Science Association, Editorial Board of the Cambridge Review of International Affairs, CNN World, “Joe Nye answers your questions on China,” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/14/joe-nye-answers-your-questions-on-china/
Is “soft power” enough to make
AND
shift the internal balance of forces inside China.
Collapses the CCP and the global economy
Knowledge Wharton, 3-8-2011, “The Hu-Obama Summit: Big on Symbolism, Less So on Substance,” http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/arabic/article.cfm?articleid=2632&language_id=1  
One upshot of 2010's tensions? A lot
AND
.S., but for the whole world."
U.S. soft power destabilizes foreign societies and cultures.
Jeffrey Garten, 11-30-1998, Dean of the Yale School of Management, Business Week, “'CULTURAL IMPERIALISM' IS NO JOKE,” http://www.businessweek.com/archives/1998/b3606049.arc.htm
The transmission of our culture goes beyond the
AND 

AQAP

Bioterrorism is exaggerated – wont cause extinction
Arms Control Center, 2010 (Scientists Working Group on Biological and Chemical Weapons, report in response to the Graham-Talent Commission report on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Biological threats: a matter of balance” January 26, google)
• The bioterrorist threat has been greatly exaggerated
AND
skewed the outcomes towards inflated and unlikely results.

Counterinsurgency in Yemen fails – increasing aid empowers AQAP
Frank J. Cilluffo (directs the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University and is a former Special Assistant to the President for Homeland Security) and Clinton Watts (a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI) June 24, 2011 “YEMEN AND AL QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: EXPLOITING A WINDOW OF COUNTERTERRORISM OPPORTUNITY” http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief_yemenaqap.pdf
First, arming, training and assisting Yemeni
AND
the end of U.S. support. 

AQAP not a threat – its all political posturing
James Spencer (Retired British Infantry, Strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen) June 8, 2011 “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show
Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the West's chief
AND
behind U.S. support for Yemen.

AQAP threat exaggerated – more assistance wont solve
Ibrahim Mothana (writer for Al Jazeera) June 30, 2011 “Yemen: Thinking outside the AQAP box” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/2011629161825121566.html
In reality, however, the Yemeni regime
AND
harm than good, with serious economic repercussions.
Al Qaeda is falling apart – no chance they have nukes or can carry out large-scale foreign attacks
John Mueller (Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University) August 2, 2011 “The Truth About al Qaeda” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show
In the wake of the killing of Osama
AND
year, even with 9/11 included. 

Pirates
No protectionism
Dani Rodrik (professor of political economy at Harvard, recipient of the Social Science Research Council’s Hirschman Prize) 2009 “The myth of rising protectionism”, http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/dani-rodrikmythrising-protectionism/373102/
There was a dog that didn’t bark during
AND
that mitigate demand for cruder forms of protection.
Their historical examples are exactly why trade won’t collapse
Daniel Ikenson (director of Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies) 2009 “A protectionism fling”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651
A Little Perspective, Please Although some governments
AND
governments attempt to limit choices through policy constraints.

Middle East won’t escalate

No military capacity – internal capacity to de-escalate overwhelms your links
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians
AND
local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.
They have no empirical data – history disproves escalation – squo coping mechanisms solve
Paul Cochrane (Middle East correspondent for International News Services) January 31, 2011 “The Middle East: On the edge of the abyss?”
Countless times I've read analysis and the blurb
AND
, lousy education and low standards of living.
1NC No Democracy Assistance Now
No MENA democracy aid now – if there is its small and sluggish now
David Rosenberg (Columnist for the Jerusalem Post) September 13, 2011 “Doubts surround aid to Arab Spring countries” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=237759&R=R3
Urgently needed funds haven't arrived yet; economists
AND
, London’s Financial Times reported on September 7.

2NC

AQAP 2NC
Delivery is impossible – most likely methods ensure only a 5% risk
Stimson Center 2005 (Henry L. Stimson Center, Frequently Asked Questions: Likelihood of Terrorists Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons, http://www.stimson.org/cwc/terror.htm)
Terrorists cannot count on just filling the delivery
AND
kill 95 percent or more of the microorganisms.
History is on our side - 96% of the time it only kills 3 or less people
Stimson Center 2005 (Henry L. Stimson Center, Frequently Asked Questions: Likelihood of Terrorists Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons, http://www.stimson.org/cwc/terror.htm)
The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo was brimming with
AND
, three or fewer people were injured or killed
Simple environmental factors ensure an attack fails
Laqueur 1999 (Walter- Cochairman, International Research Council, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, The New Terrorism, pg. 244)
Ironically, the major factor retarding the use
AND
also be true with regard to state terrorism.
No AQAP takeover – no domestic support
Sarah Phillips (lectures at the Centre for International Security Studies (Sydney University), where she specializes in Yemeni and Middle Eastern politics, and the politics of state-building) February/March 2011 “Al-Qaeda and the Struggle for Yemen” http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:h2MUZsCp214J:sydney.edu.au/arts/ciss/downloads/Phillips_Al-Qaeda_and_the_Struggle_for_Yemen_%2520SURVIVAL.PDF+%22Survival+Al-Qaeda+and+the+Struggle+for+Yemen%22&hl=en&gl=us
Despite the Yemeni regime’s persistent claims to the
AND
it became identified as a victim of disproportionate aggression
AQAP is small and cant rally people to commit violence
Alistair Harris ( former diplomat and UN staff member. He is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and frequent commentator for RUSI on Middle Eastern issues, as well as director of the research consultancy Pursue Ltd) May 2010 “Exploiting Grievances Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” http://carnegieendowment.org/files/exploiting_grievances.pdf
As stated repeatedly by the government of Yemen
AND
and rally tribes to the violent jihadi cause.
Terrorists wont have the motivation
Michael A. Levi (Fellow for Science and Technology) 4/19/2007 “How Likely is a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States?”, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/publication/13097/
Yet from a terrorist perspective the prospect of
AND
is no reason to assume that al-Qaeda
Pirates 2NC
Powerful lobbies check 1930s style protectionism
Kati Suominen (transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and trade economist at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington) 2009 “A New Age Of Protectionism? the Economic Crisis And Transatlantic Trade Policy”, the German Marshall Fund Of The United States, http://www.gmfus.org//doc/Suominen%20final.pdf
This paper makes three arguments First, fears
AND
and the fortunes of the global trading system.
Ensures that even if protectionism occurs it is short-lived and marginal
Daniel Ikenson (director of Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies) 2009 “A protectionism fling”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651
Conclusion Despite the global economic contraction and the
AND
protectionism that erupted and exacerbated the global recession.
Today we have the benefit of understanding the
AND
investment environment that is open in both directions.
No Middle East escalation
Prefer our literature base – theirs overinflates threats about the outbreak of conflict
Edward Luttwak (CSIS senior associate and has served as a consultant to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, and a number of allied governments as well as international corporations and financial institutions) May 2007 “The middle of nowhere” http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2007/05/themiddleofnowhere/
Why are middle east experts so unfailingly wrong
AND
killed in a season of conflict in Darfur.
Mideast armies adopt purely defensive postures – they err towards conflict aversion not offensive deployment – That’s Takeyh - ensures conflicts wont occur or escalate – more evidence
Matthew Yglesias (Associate Editor of The Atlantic
AND
2007 “Containing Iraq”, The Atlantic.com
Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on
AND
the desert hunting a possibly mythical terrorist organization.

Topicality – Regime change 1NC
A. “Democracy assistance” does not include policies designed to produce regime change.
NED, 2006 (National Endowment for Democracy
AND
against Democracy Assistance” June 8, google)
Regime change and democracy assistance are not synonymous
AND
term investment to secure genuine, sustainable change.
B. Violation: the plan is a targeted regime change policy in Syria.
C. Standards

1. Core NEG ground: the core of the topic rests on assistance, which is distinct from promotion. NEG ground speaks to less intrusive strategies, which means the AFF usurps the most predictable literature base from the NEG.
   2. Limits: expanding to regime change means any form of military action, espionage, or sabotage would be topic, exploding the topic and destroying topic education, argument depth, and clash.

TAA – 1NC
TAA will pass now, FTAs will follow—Cloture on Monday—Obama key
Ryan 9/16 (Josiah Ryan, “Cloture vote scheduled on Trade Adjustment Assistance,” The Hill, google)
The Senate is set to take a preliminary
AND
congressional Democrats have made it a top priority.
Plan costs capital—Causes huge fights in Congress
Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)
The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid
AND
to justify nation-building in foreign countries."
Capital key to TAA
Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer, September 2, 2011, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
In addition to the challenge from organized labor
AND
those trade agreements without TAA," said Trumka.
FTAs are the only way to avoid double dip
Yonhap News 8/10 (August 10
AND
/10/86/0502000000AEN20110810002200320F.HTML)
A series of economic data from the U
AND
approval from the legislatures of the two countries.
Global nuclear war
Friedberg and Schoenfeld 2008  (Aaron Friedberg,
AND
The Dangers of a Diminished America” google)
Then there are the dolorous consequences of a
AND
divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.

1NR

1NR Impact overview
KORUS is key to TPP talks—Key to US influence throughout Asia – turns their leadership advantage
Flake and Stangarone 8/10 (L
AND
is a Strategic Imperative,” CSIS, google)
Perhaps more important, the ability of the
AND
negotiations, which would spur efforts within Japan.
Multiple nuclear wars
Brzezinski 2004 (Zbigniew Brzezinski, Counselor at
AND
or Global Leadership” p 110-111)
Ultimately, war or peace in the Far
AND
single match could then set off an explosion.
PC key to prevent China bashing amendment
Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer,
AND
-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
Democrats like House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and
AND
does not expend political capital to block it.
US/China war
Xinbo 2008 (Wu, Dean at Fudan
AND
” United States Institutes of Peace, April)
While growing economic interdependence and expanding cooperation on
AND
manage various possible crises between the two nations.
Extinction
Strait Times 2000 (June 25, 2000, lexis)
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross
AND
, we would see the destruction of civilization.
Relations key to solve warming
Yuan 2008 (Dr. Jing-dong
AND
US relations”, Asia Times, Dec 25)
While Beijing and Washington have many differences due
AND
especially critical not to succumb to trade protectionism.
SK Will Pass
Will pass—Latest agreement proves
Oi-hyun 9/2 (Kim
AND
S. Congress,” The Hankyoreh, google)
During a full meeting of the National Assembly’s
AND
not likely to be introduced until after September.
Opposition agrees they’ll approve it when we do
Arirang 9/1 ( “Korea's Natl
AND
&code=Ne2&category=2)
This comes a day after both sides spent
AND
US sets a concrete timeline on its ratification.
Other uniqueness
TAA will pass—Sufficient GOP support
Chocola 9/15 (Chris Chocola,
AND
Republicans might support,” The Hill, google)
Some Republicans in Congress may go along with
AND
submit them unless TAA is assured of passage.
Will pass—Momentum
Chi-dong 9/14 (Lee
AND
ratification of FTAs,” Yonhap News, google)
U.S. and South Korean officials
AND
way for Congress to work on the FTAs.
Obama key to overcome final hurdles
Kasperowicz 9/16 (Pete Kasperowicz,
AND
at next week ...,” The Hill, google)
Trade policy, another point of contention,
AND
discussion about exactly how to bridge the divide.
FTAs come first
Arirang News 8/31 (“House GOP's
AND
&code=Ne2&category=2)
While the spotlight will be on the workings
AND
deals with Korea, Colombia, and Panama.

2NC Syria Links

Syrian assistance costs capital
Tabler and Karlin 2011 (Andrew J.
AND
&pageid=16&pagename=Opinion)
To further assist the Syrian opposition, Washington
AND
other words, not the current minority system).
Engagement with Syria is controversial
Lesch 2007 (David W., Prof of
AND
and Confrontation in the US-Syrian Relationship”)
 Even before the end of 2001,
AND
include encouraging Syrian participation in a larger peace process
Obama bargaining overwhelms ideology—lame duck proves.
Shows, 2010 (Ronnie Shows, former
AND
Securing the Middle” December 27, google)
The President's press conference, just a few
AND
this year's lame duck session from being lame.

A2 winners win
Turns take too long to build capital
Daily Kos, 1-26 (“On
AND
Is How You Win” 2011, google)
So there you go, folks: I'm
AND
see the results until further down the road.
Not true for Obama—PC is finite.
Ryan, 2009 (Selwyn Ryan, Professor
AND
, Trinidad Express, January 18, google)
Like many, I expect much from Obama
AND
in cyberspace (the latent "Obama Party").

Israel lobby no longer dictates the agenda
Dreyfuss 2009 (Richard Dreyfuss, Sep/
AND
/aipac-still-chosen-one)
AIPAC is facing something of a perfect storm
AND
top negotiator for Israel in 1995 and 2001.

A2 IMPACT D

Adds 70 thousand jobs – that’s the warrant – TAA solves that anyway
Merrigan 8/22 (Joann Merrigan,
AND
Mean Thousands of Jobs,” WSAV, google)
70,000 jobs and maybe more.  
AND
that's creating jobs here in the United States."

A2 (ideology )

Studies prove issues spillover—the president is key.
Soha, 2008 (Eshbaugh-Soha,
AND
26. Retrieved from Political Science Complete database)
Presidential-congressional relations are a central topic
AND
a primary determinant of presidential success in Congress.

1NC MCC CP
Text:
The Millennium Challenge Corporation should take all steps necessary to expand funding eligibility to non-governmental organizations seeking to promote democracy in Syria, including sufficiently lowering indicator requirements to account for a smaller scale of measurement.  The Millennium Challenge Corporation should propose and advocate sub-national compacts with eligible NGOs through their Threshold Program.  This compact should include providing political organization assistance for Syrian opposition groups.
MCC funding eligibility should be expanded to democracy NGO’s
Thomas I. Palley (Director, Globalization Reform Project Open Society Institute) January 2003 “The Millennium Challenge Accounts: Elevating the Significance of Democracy as a Qualifying Criterion” http://www.opensocietypolicycenter.org/pub/doc_26/mca_proposal.pdf
Just as democratic considerations should figure prominently in
AND
state and local government can prevent such practices.
MCC solves shortcomings of democracy Assistance – comparatively solves better
michael a. cohen and maria figueroa küpçü (New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute) 2009 “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf
Consolidating development and democracy assistance in one empowered
AND
and encouraging the indigenous development of democratic institutions.
They’ll say yes – Studies prove
Doug Johnson (Harvard Kennedy School of Government) and Tristan Zajonc (Public Policy PhD Candidate Institute for Quantitative Social Science (K320) John F. Kennedy School of Government) April 2006 “Can Foreign Aid Create an Incentive for Good Governance?
Evidence from the Millennium Challenge Corporation” http
AND
tzajonc/mcc_wp_apr06.pdf
Even though the MCC is still in its
AND
suggest that the MCC incentive effect is real.

2NC

2NC – A2 Perm Do Both
Conditions are key to effectiveness – unilateral nature of the plan destroys solvency
CDDRL (Stanford University’s Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.  Conference including Democracy assistance experts like Carothers, Scott Carpenter, Michael McFaul, and government officials.   Gordon Adams American University, Tom Bruneau Naval Postgraduate School, Tom Carothers Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Scott J. Carpenter The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, David Denehy The Denehy Group Larry Diamond Hoover Institute, Jean Geran U.S. Department of State, Carl Gershman National Endowment for Democracy, Desha Girod CDDRL, Stanford University Richard Hoffman Naval Postgraduate School, Jerry Hyman Center for Strategic and International Studies,Erik Jensen CDDRL, Stanford University Jim Kolbe The German Marshall Fund of the United States Steve Krasner CDDRL, Stanford 2 Sally Kux U.S. Department of State Michael McFaul CDDRL, Stanford University Thomas Melia Freedom House Abbas Milani Stanford University Richard Morningstar Stanford University Eric Morris Stanford University Jessica Piombo Naval Postgraduate School Maria Rendon World Bank Group Smita Singh The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Alex Sokolowski USAID Chris Starling Stanford University Kathryn Stoner-Weiss CDDRL, Stanford University J. Alexander Thier United States Institute of Peace Harold Trinkunas Naval Postgraduate School 3 Jeremy Weinstein Stanford University Jennifer Windsor Freedom House Ken Wollack National Democratic Institute for International Affairs) May 2008 “REORGANIZING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEMOCRACY PROMOTION EFFORTS” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/res/2329/Reorganizing.pdf
Expand the MCC principle of ex ante conditionality
AND
likelihood that aid with reach its intended targets.  

2NC Solves Case/Say Yes
NGO’s will say yes – the 1ac solvency is based on their willingness to adhere to democratic principles that the CP would require – say no means vote neg on presumption.  Our Johnson evidence says robust, empirical data shows that proposing MCC compacts causes positive reactions – they move towards meeting eligibility requirements necessary to receive the aid – more evidence
Rebecca Stubbs (J.D. Candidate, Vanderbilt University Law School) March 2009, “The Millennium Challenge Account: Influencing Governance in Developing Countries Through Performance-Based Foreign Aid,” 42 Vand. J. Transnat'l L. 621, Lexis
The study also found that candidate countries performed
AND
well to a performance-based aid strategy.
MCC effect solves better than the aff – it ‘democratizes democracy assistance’ – that’s cohen – more successful than the plan
James M. Roberts (Research Fellow for Economic Freedom and Growth in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation) March 1, 2011 “Not All Foreign Aid Is Equal” http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/03/Not-All-Foreign-Aid-Is-Equal
MCC’s selectivity and associated seal of approval creates
AND
would have been expected without the program.[6

CP sends a signal the spills over to other aid organizations – ensures the incentive to reform is massive
CDDRL (Stanford University’s Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.  Conference including Democracy assistance experts like Carothers, Scott Carpenter, Michael McFaul, and government officials.   Gordon Adams American University, Tom Bruneau Naval Postgraduate School, Tom Carothers Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Scott J. Carpenter The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, David Denehy The Denehy Group Larry Diamond Hoover Institute, Jean Geran U.S. Department of State, Carl Gershman National Endowment for Democracy, Desha Girod CDDRL, Stanford University Richard Hoffman Naval Postgraduate School, Jerry Hyman Center for Strategic and International Studies,Erik Jensen CDDRL, Stanford University Jim Kolbe The German Marshall Fund of the United States Steve Krasner CDDRL, Stanford 2 Sally Kux U.S. Department of State Michael McFaul CDDRL, Stanford University Thomas Melia Freedom House Abbas Milani Stanford University Richard Morningstar Stanford University Eric Morris Stanford University Jessica Piombo Naval Postgraduate School Maria Rendon World Bank Group Smita Singh The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Alex Sokolowski USAID Chris Starling Stanford University Kathryn Stoner-Weiss CDDRL, Stanford University J. Alexander Thier United States Institute of Peace Harold Trinkunas Naval Postgraduate School 3 Jeremy Weinstein Stanford University Jennifer Windsor Freedom House Ken Wollack National Democratic Institute for International Affairs) May 2008 “REORGANIZING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEMOCRACY PROMOTION EFFORTS” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/res/2329/Reorganizing.pdf
Expand the MCC principle of ex ante conditionality
AND
likelihood that aid with reach its intended targets.

A2 Muslim Brotherhood add-on—
No violence or Brotherhood takeover
The Economist Jun 30th 2011 “The squeeze on Assad” The Economist, Online
So might the regime go the other way
AND
brothers would get at most 15% today.
2NC – A2 Perm Do The CP
Severs certainty - Resolved – “to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine (to do something)” – conditional nature of assistance and consultative mechanisms of the MCC violate
[Dictionary.com]
Severs immediacy - Should
Justice Summer, Oklahoma Supreme Court, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant”, 1994, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14
4 The legal question to be resolved by
AND
27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).
Conditional nature of assistance and the consultative mechanism of the MCC proves – CP changes based on local conditions constantly – net result could be decrease in assistance – proves they sever ‘resolved’ and ‘should’
Alicia Phillips Mandaville (Director, Development Policy at Millennium Challenge Corporation) November 2007 “MCC and the
Long Term Goal of Deepening Democracy”
AND 

MCC asks partner governments to maintain a meaningful
AND
boards that oversee implementation of the MCC Compact.
Severs whole USFG action – The - “Used as a function word before a noun…to indicate reference to a group as a whole”
[Merriam websters dictionary, online]
Aid conditionality avoids politics
Stephen McInerney (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy) July 2011 “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf
In addition to reducing the levels of annual
AND
broadly the U.S.-Egypt relationship.

Saudi Iran 1NC
The likelihood of Iran/Saudi war is extremely low.
Karen Dolan March 17 2008 No War with Iran Resolution Toolkit http://www.ips-dc.org/articles/no_war_with_iran_resolution_toolkit
Washington's current anti-Iran campaign has pushed Arab governments towards a much harsher stance against Iran. The same regional competition that once led to the Iran-Iraq War is already resulting in a new regional contest between Iran and a Saudi-led (and U.S.-backed) consortium of Arab governments. Saudi Arabia is not an indigenous regional power either on its own or even backed by the other weak and legitimacy-challenged states in the area, and the current conflict is unlikely to lead to an "Iran-Arab" war. But the new U.S.-backed high profile of the Saudi king (in negotiating the recent internal Palestinian ceasefire, for instance) must be seen in the context of Washington continuing to encourage regional competitors to challenge Iran.
Iran will never wage war against Saudi Arabia alone.
Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute for Middle Eastern Studies 8/16/10 Israeli-Palestinian tensions – prelude to the war against Iran http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100816/160222712.html
Recently Iran has been waging a proxy war against Israel, using the Arabs as its intermediaries. The two most recent military campaigns attest to this: the second Lebanese war and the Cast Lead operation in Gaza. These were actually Iranian-Israeli wars. Iran always tries to wage its wars on foreign soil and with minimal losses for itself. It doesn’t care that Arab fighters were killed in these hostilities – the important thing is that no Iranian lives were lost. Today Iran is also at war with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And in this case Israel is just a pretext for rallying behind Ayatollah Khamenei, who has proclaimed himself the main challenger to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose recent re-election caused turmoil in the Islamic Republic. But Iran will never take on Saudi Arabia or Egypt in a one-to-one fight.
Iran will not wage war against Saudi Arabia—politics and military.
Meir Javedanfar March 24, 2011 Iran and Saudi Arabia cold war has entered a new era http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/24/iran-saudi-arabia-bahrain-cold-war
This fury is now turning into warnings. President Ahmadinejad has already cautioned the Saudi royal family that they should "learn from Saddam's fate". The Saudis should now start preparing themselves for Iran's response, because the Iranian government is not going to let this pass quietly. The question is: what is Iran willing to do to confront the Saudis? It is unlikely that Iran would send its forces across the Gulf into Bahrain. This move would be very risky, both politically and militarily.

Won’t escalate—there has been conflict since 1979 – war will remain “cold”
Mei Javedanfar The Diplomat September 02, 2011 Why Iran Eyes a Syrian Civil War http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/02/why-iran-eyes-syrian-civil-war/
But a civil war could be welcomed in Tehran for another reason – because it would also undermine Saudi interests. Saudi Arabia and Iran have for years been engaged in their own Cold War, especially since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. They’ve competed for power and influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain – and now Syria. According to David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post,  the Saudis have been ‘pumping money to Sunni fighters in Syria.’ Meanwhile, Iran has been backing the Alawite dominated government of Assad. In the case of civil war in Syria, Iran would use the opportunity to undermine Sunni groups as a means of limiting Saudi influence in Syria. Iran has already lost Bahrain to the Saudis – it’s determined not to lose Syria as well.

Topicality 1NC
A. Interpretation: the aff must prove an example of the resolution true.
The subject: central government (united states federal government)
The verb: increase (to make greater or larger)
The object: democracy assistance
Democracy assistance is a non-profit transfer.
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph
AND
Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)
Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as
AND
precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.
B. The aff violates (pick one or more)
[the subject: the central government in Washington DC]
[the verb: SAYING “the resolution is good” is not increasing democracy assistance]
 [the object: the object of the plan is the judge, not democracy assistance]
C. Reasons to prefer:
Infinite regression—disregarding resolutional syntax produces an endless regression to small, trivial plans. For example, an aff only about the subject opens the door to ANY philosophy that speaks to ‘being’.
Limits—resolutional limits encourage aff innovation, predictive research on a designated topic, and clash—a precursor to productive education. Also, the inherent value of arguments within limits is greater, which link turns education arguments.
Without precision the topic is unlimited- no meaning to the word “democracy.”
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph
AND
Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)
Conclusion This article has examined the emergence of
AND
of formulating effective democratic means will remain improbable.
The act is extra topical – they end the muslim outreach program in order to increase the notion of democracy – it’s not a positive action – relies on the effects of solvency to be topical – it’s bad generates unpredictable affirmatives – can create weird plan/solvency mechs which ruin neg flexibility – hurts topic education – independent voting issue for fairness and education.
D. If our interpretation is net-beneficial it means there’s no reason to vote affirmative. If the case is true then it de-justifies the resolution. Teams are still signified by ‘aff’ and ‘neg’, so the resolution is a required measurement for ‘affirmation.’
1NC Neolib
Increases in democracy assistance strengthen neoliberalism’s reach – civil society incorporates markets
Marius I. Tatar (Sociology Department at University of Bucharest and assistant professor in Political Science at University of Oradea, Romania) July/August 2008 “The Impact of International Assistance on the Romanian Advocacy NGOs” in “Changing Europe Summer School III
Central and Eastern Europe in a Globalized World
AND
Summer_School_2008/Tatar.pdf
Democracy assistance played an important role in the
AND
values necessary for the successful consolidation of democracy.
Neoliberalism solves poverty
Doug Bandow (senior fellow at the CATO Institute) March 25th, 2001 “Globalization Serves the World's Poor” http://www.cato.org/dailys/04-25-01.html
Indeed, the problems of globalization must always
AND
market reforms. With them comes increased wealth.
Neoliberal democracy solves extinction
Henry Teune, Political Science Department at the University of Pennsylvania, May, 2002 “Global Democracy”, The Annals of The American Academy of Political and Social Science, 581 Annals 22, Lexis
During the past three decades, social scientists
AND
century's end, following the spread of democracy.  
Neoliberalism solves war – interdependence
Daniel T. Griswold (director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute) 2006 CATO Institute, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men” http://www.freetrade.org/node/282
First, trade and globalization have reinforced the
AND
away what they can produce best at home.
The capitalist order is the foundation for US hegemony.
Peter Gowan. "US Hegemony Today."
AND
55/ai_105368629/pg_1
American hegemony since 1945 has been structurally different
AND
of international capital accumulation throughout the capitalist world.
Leadership is key to solve every major impact
Bradley A. Thayer, November/December, 2006 “In Defense of Primacy,” NATIONAL INTEREST Issue 86
THROUGHOUT HISTORY, peace and stability have been
AND
humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg.

Retreat 1NC
First is the link— The affirmative’s attempt to sidestep the costs and benefits of policy implementation demonstrates their orientation toward their project lacks seriousness
Isaac 2002—Jeffrey C. Isaac is
AND
Indiana University, Bloomington. Dissent / Spring 2002
Politics is about ends and means—about
AND
in the society in which these activists live.
Next is the impact—Their retreat to local concerns enables unsolved global problems to assure extinction—Their method solves nothing, but cedes the political to authoritarian reactions
Boggs 1997—Dr. Carl Boggs Professor
AND
Society 26: 741-780, 1997.
The decline of the public sphere in late
AND
interests that had vanished from civil society.75  
And, the aff is doomed to failure—Their activist reaction to deliberation lacks epistemic modesty – it engages in a form of knowledge production which replicates injustice
Talisse 2006—Robert B. Talisse Department
AND
‘he’ and the deliberativist is ‘she’]
That Young’s activist is not reasonable in this
AND
the activist denies this, he is unreasonable.
The alternative is to embrace the risks associated with defending the implementation of their values as policy—Only embracing risk fills political space to resist the worst abuses of a military state
Rule 2010—The Military State of America
AND
latest book is Privacy in Peril (Ebsco)
In a dangerous world, any course of
AND
domestic well-being are far more alarming.
This serious political commitment provides the only hope to avoid the worst impacts and the internal links to their offense
Isaac 2002—Jeffrey C. Isaac is
AND
Indiana University, Bloomington. Dissent / Spring 2002
Second, it would mean frankly acknowledging something
AND
never be mistaken for a serious political commitment.
Libya CP
TEXT: The United States Federal government should end its Muslim World Outreach in Bahrain, Egypt, Syria, Tunisia & Yemen.
Either five of six is sufficient to solve or the non-topic countries overwhelm aff solvency.
Strong rule of law will be vital to Libya transition.
David Tolbert 2011 (Aug. 25, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice) "Make justice a foundation of the new Libya" <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/>
Looking to experiences spanning tectonic changes from Berlin
AND
the mind of all who speak of justice.
The rule of law checks global warfare in the international system, maximizing freedom for subjectivities
Charles S. Rhyne 5/1/1958 (J.D, U.N. High Commissioner on Refugees, President of the American Bar Association) Law Day Speech for Voice of America delivered on the first Law Day http://www.abanet.org/publiced/lawday/rhyne58.html
Law and courts exist to protect every citizen
AND
no greater service to mankind can be performed.
Rule of law is key to the RTP doctrine
Ban Ki-Moon 2011 (June 7th, Secretary General of the United Nations) "The role of regional and sub-regional arrangements in implementing the responsibility to protect Report of the Secretary-General" <http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/RtoP%20Info%20Note%20and%20Programme%20-%20SG%20Report%20-%206%20July%202011.pdf>
The danger of mass atrocity crimes, particularly
AND
a bridge between the local and the global.
Libya will determine the fate of international genocide prevention
 Salman Shaikh 2011 (Director of Brookings Doha Center, Feb. 26) "Libya's Test of the New International Order" <http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0226_libya_shaikh.aspx>
The current dangerous situation in Libya has become
AND
"when I do, everything will burn."
1NC Case

Even if people acknowledge the power of whiteness rejection doesn’t solve because of the adaptive unconsciousness
Ann Berlak, Elementary Ed Program, SFSU
AND
in Undoing Whiteness in the Classroom (B)
(p50-1) The theory of
AND
unconscious when they are not monitoring their actions.

First, Objections to the personal practice of Utilitarianism are irrelevant. Utilitarianism is public policy which requires that leaders take the action which is in the best interest of their people.
William H. Shaw. PhD. Contemporary
AND
Utilitarianism. P. 171-2. 1999
Utilitarianism ties right and wrong to the promotion
AND
against it when viewed as a public philosophy. 

Second, Moral absolutism results in paralysis and tragedy. Only Utilitarianism can resolve these moral conflicts.
Gerard Elfstrom. “Ethics for a Shrinking World” 1990. p. 21-22.
But if utilitarianism and rights-based theories
AND
ways very difficult for rights theories to match.

2NC

Retreat k 2NC
Policy implications are necessary to test theory—It is key to describe the consequences of implementing specific change because rhetorical criticism can make the world worse—The impact is education and it turns the case
Feaver 2001—Peter Feaver (Asst. Prof of Political Science at Duke University) 2001 Twenty-First Century Weapons Proliferation, p 178)
At the same time, virtually all good
AND
work in the proliferation field already does so.
Finally, comparative evidence—Working through and with the state is more productive than abandoning it
Grossberg 1992—Lawrence Grossberg, Professor of Communications at the University of Illinois, 1992 We Gotta Get Out of This Place, p. 390-391
But this would mean that the Left could
AND
fact have the capacity to fight them.  
A2 Switch side debate leads to violence—
Turn – Switch-side debate is key to engaging in a policy of liberalism and preventing misappropriation of security policy. And, debaters often transition to greatly impact real world politics in progressive ways.
Gordon R. Mitchell, et al., pub. date: June 2007, Assoc. Prof. of Communication and Dir. of the William Pitt Debating Union @ the Univ. of Pittsburgh, Eric English, Stephen Llano, Catherine E. Morrison, John Rief & Carly Woods, “Debate as a Weapon of Mass Destruction,” Communication and Critical/Cultural Studies, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 221 – 225, http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/EnglishDAWG.pdf  
Today’s intercollegiate debaters find themselves in a political
AND
as a ‘‘weapon of mass destruction.’’     

Case 2NC
Placing the black body at the center relegates other important factors that construct identities—their mono-causal explanation also falsely promises an emergence of social justice.
Niemonen, 2010 (Jack Niemonen, American Sociologist, 41(1), 48-81, “Public Sociology or Partisan Sociology? The Curious Case of Whiteness Studies” EBSCOhost)
Despite recognition that racial classification systems are not
AND
, cowardice, and hypocrisy (Blum 2002).
Black-White paradigm reinforces whiteness via the adaptive unconscious
Ann Berlak, Elementary Ed Program, SFSU
AND
in Undoing Whiteness in the Classroom (B)
(p52) The adaptive unconscious is in
AND
of whiteness— unless they demonstrate their innocence.
Debate round length interventions are ineffective – only suspension of judging resistance can create pathways for productive encounters with the adaptive unconscious
Ann Berlak, Elementary Ed Program, SFSU
AND
in Undoing Whiteness in the Classroom (B)
(p59) Looking at challenging the hegemony
AND
frequently call students' psychological immune systems into play.
Foregrounding of whiteness reinforces US exceptional, undermining solvency – their localization to intra-debate community issues is an exclamation mark
Jane Carey (Postcolonialism Researcher, Monach U
AND
), Re-Orienting Whiteness (B) 2009
 (p3-4) Arneson was
AND
them to be subsumed within such parochial concerns.

1NR

1NR Case
Ignoring the question of action because of ontology causes paralysis
David McClean (philosopher, writer and business
AND
Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm
There is a lot of philosophical prose on
AND
reform as more important than Spirit and Utopia.

Current forms of IR are not dependent on ontological or epistemological questions.  Prioritizing ontology and epistemology over specific policy formulations paralyzes problem solving measures ensuring short-term annihilation.  
David Owen Millennium Journale of international studies 2002
AND 

 On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR
AND
, and so a potentially vicious circle arises. 

1NR T CARDS
The history of the PHRASE “democracy assistance” proves it should be understood in the context of aid.
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph
AND 

A State of the Art” google)
Although it was not until after the Cold
AND
a rapid expansion of US democracy aid.120

Definitional debates are key to more effective democracy assistance policy.
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph
AND
Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)
Naturally, the merits and limitations of the
AND
country has reached an adequate level of democracy.
Clear understanding of “democracy assistance” key to democracy.
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph
AND
Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)
Yet despite its growing recognition, the term
AND
appropriate means are to best achieve those ends.

ASPEC
They have to specify their agent.
They destroy in-depth debate on the topic and core ground.
Center for Democracy, 2004, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf
Comparing American and European approaches to democracy promotion
AND
policy, and unresolved tensions between policy goals.
Clarifying is AFF conditionality – destroys ground with unlimited 2AC specification. Voting issue for fairness and education.
EU CP
TEXT: The European Union should provide substantial civil society support for the purpose of political party development of the Yemen youth movement.
EU solves Yemen – US causes backlash
Mark N. Katz (Professor of Government and Politics at George Mason University) March 2011 “Yemen after Saleh” http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Yemen_after_Saleh.pdf
While this process of shaping the nature of
AND
as well as the West as a whole.

Terror Cooperation Condition CP
The United States Department of Defense should provide substantial civil society support for the purpose of political party development of the Yemen youth movement exclusively to Yemeni recipients who agree to cooperate with the United States in relevant anti-terrorism initiatives, including the sharing of counter-terror information.
Solvency
CP solves the case better and they say yes.
W. Andrew Terrill (Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College) August 2, 2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2
There are also special problems regarding terrorism.
AND
most Americans. Their efforts will be indispensable.
Conditions avoid politics.
David Francis (a reporter based in Berlin and Washington, DC. In addition to repoting for the Fiscal Times a correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle., The Fiscal Times) March 2011, “Foreign Aid Dilemma: Dictators on our Dole,” http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/03/16/Foreign-Aid-Dilemma-Dictators-on-our-Dole.aspx#page1
As violence rages in Libya and antigovernment protests
AND
increasingly feeling the pain of our economic crisis.”

Conditioning aid on cooperation with security forces solves – the AFF can’t solve civil society structure alone.
Peter Knoetgne (Central European Journal of International & Security Studies) May 2011“Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”
http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil
Yemen has rampant economic problems. By almost
AND
role of a strategic weapon against Yemeni terrorism.
Saudi DA
Saudis are feeling in-sync with the U.S. now – they will sabotage the plan and backlash – they perceive it as a threat to their own regime.
DemDigest June 6, 2011 “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/
With Yemen finely poised between transition and regression
AND
delicate and tortured than elsewhere in the region.

Collapses the dollar.
Ian Bremmer (president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm, serves on the Board of Trustees of the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, Chair of the Forum's Global Agenda Council for Geopolitical Risk, former National Fellow at the Hoover Institute) March 2011 “Washington’s stark choice: Democracy or Riyadh” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/493c8dd0-50b7-11e0-9227-00144feab49a.html#axzz1VVZpcHf6
Events of the past three months have shattered
AND
for the dollar as the primary reserve currency.

Dollar collapse will ensure a US-China war
Mead 2004 (Walter Russell- Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, “America's STICKY Power,” Foreign Policy, Mar/Apr)
Similarly, in the last 60 years,
AND
.-Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.

Draws in Russia, ends in extinction
Straits Times 6-25-2000
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross
AND
, we would see the destruction of civilisation.

SKFTA
TAA will pass the House setting the stage for FTA ratification by Halloween
Belgum 9/30 (Deborah Belgum, “The Last Push Is On for Three Free-Trade Agreements,” Apparel News, google)
If all goes well, the pending free
AND
then send them to Obama for a signature.”
Plan causes huge fights- Costs capital
Carothers 2009 (Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe, practiced international and financial law at Arnold & Porter and served as an attorney-adviser in the Office of the Legal Adviser of the U.S. Department of State, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School, 2009, google)
In any event, the Obama administration has
AND
to take on entrenched interests in many quarters.
Capital key to TAA
Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer, September 2, 2011, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
In addition to the challenge from organized labor
AND
those trade agreements without TAA," said Trumka.

SKFTA is key to solve heg, econ, trade, and Korea war
Hubbard 2011 (Thomas Hubbard, Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea, April 7, 2011, Congressional Documents and Publications, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement,” google)
The United States-South Korea Free Trade
AND
fundamental security and economic interests into the future.  
Escalates to global nuclear war
Stratfor 2010 (Stratfor, May 26, 2010, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” google)
But no one, of course, is
AND
might be if the situation escalates much further.

Democracy critique
Democracy assistance’ is a hegemonic neoliberal strategy that masks oppression and violence – turns the aff
Gerald Sussman (Professor of Urban Studies and Planning and Speech Communication at Portland State University) 2006 “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 7 http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe
U.S. interventionism, except perhaps
AND
political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.

Neoliberalism makes multiple scenarios for extinction inevitable
Judith Deutsch (president, Science for Peace. Member of Canadian psychoanalytic society) July/September 2009 “Pestilence, Famine, War, Neoliberalism, and Premature Deaths” Peace Magazine
Worse still, many commentators suggest that there
AND
, and thinly disguised reliance on threatened use.
The alternative is vote negative – This form of rejection is critical to opening space for subaltern voices to speak.  That’s key to challenge neoliberal corporate domination – this is a pre-requisite to any productive ‘democracy assistance’ policy
Mohan J. Dutta (Professor of Communication at Purdue University, Senior Editor of the journal Health Communication and sits on the editorial board of seven journals. He is the Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education in the College of Liberal Arts at Purdue University) 2005 “Civil Society and Public Relations: Not So Civil After All” Journal of Public Relations Research Vol. 17 No. 3 EBSCO
The examples of the Philippines, Chile,
AND
in resistance against acts of marginalization and silencing.
Instability
99% of Yemenis do not want U.S. intervention
Yemen Times 2011 (“American survey reviews Al-Qaeda popularity in Yemen,” April 8, http://www.yementimes.com/defaultdet.aspx?SUB_ID=36409)
Just one percent of Yemenis felt the U
AND
with Islam and that Western culture corrupts Muslims.
Yemenis are distrustful of U.S. intervention – they want a new government free of foreign attachments – specific to youth movements.
Iran English Radio 2011 (“Yemeni party wants US, Saudi envoys out,” June 15, http://english.irib.ir/news/middle-east/item/75840-yemeni-party-wants-us-saudi-envoys-out)
The deputy head of Yemen's Democratic Party has
AND
Israeli and European sources claim Saleh is dead.
Iran will never wage war against Saudi Arabia alone.
Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute for Middle Eastern Studies 8/16/10 Israeli-Palestinian tensions – prelude to the war against Iran http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100816/160222712.html
Recently Iran has been waging a proxy war
AND
in a one-to-one fight.

No impact to oil shocks – Multiple checks
-Cartel Cheating
-Private Reserves
-Government reserves
-Pipeline re-routing
-Ship re-routing
Eugene Gholz (assistant professor of public affairs at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas) and Daryl G. Press (associate professor of government at Dartmouth College) August 2010 “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest” Security Studies, Vol 19, Issue 3
Each day, twenty-four million barrels
AND
-out, getting oil back on the market
Yemen’s oil is still able to flow despite violence and instability
Wall Street Journal 2011 (Alexis Flynn, “Some Yemen Oil Exports Continue Amid Strife,” March 24, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704604704576220763677162864.html)
At least some oil and natural gas continued
AND
pipeline carrying crude from the country's western fields.
Plan cant solve stability
Joseph Natividad (staff writer at Prospect - graduate from UCSD, where he majored in History and International Studies–Political Science) August 2011 “BEYOND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL: YEMEN’S LOOMING ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS http://prospectjournal.ucsd.edu/index.php/2011/08/beyond-political-upheaval-yemens-looming-economic-and-demographic-problems/
The most pressing driver of future instability centers
AND
like coffee and wheat as alternatives to qat. 

Al Qaeda advantage
No nuclear terrorism –statistically insignificant cumulative probability
John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p, 187-190
Assigning a probability that terrorists will be able
AND
or , .-s 15 years ago.19
Bioterrorism is exaggerated – won’t cause extinction
Arms Control Center, 2010 (Scientists Working Group on Biological and Chemical Weapons, report in response to the Graham-Talent Commission report on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Biological threats: a matter of balance” January 26, google)
• The bioterrorist threat has been greatly exaggerated
AND
skewed the outcomes towards inflated and unlikely results.

Al-Awlaki death forces AQAP to turn inward – no major attacks
Stratfor September 30, 2011 “Yemen's AQAP Will Continue Ideological, Physical Battle After al-Awlaki's Death” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110930-yemens-aqap-will-continue-ideological-physical-battle-after-al-awlakis-death
Al-Awlaki’s death would deprive AQAP of
AND
whether al-Awlaki is dead or not.
AQAP isn’t s a threat – their attacks are amateurish and media propoganda
Thomas Hudson (writer for Counterpunch, specializes in the Middle East) June 16, 2011 “Drones Over Yemen” http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/06/16/drones-over-yemen/
In the months leading up to what is
AND
scanners were deployed in airports around the US.
 

Impact overview

A. Timeframe and probability- KORUS key to deter North Korea aggression- now is key
Riley 2010 (Bryan Riley, Heritage Foundation blog, “South Korea Trade Pact: More Important Than Ever - The Heritage Foundation” November 13, 2010, google)
The economic case for the South Korea–
AND
back one of our country’s key strategic allies.
B. Magnitude- Miscalc means no war would be small
Freedman 8/10 (Uri Freedman, August 10, 2011, “What Fueled the Latest Firefight Between North and South Korea?,” Atlantic Wire, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/08/what-fueled-latest-firefight-between-north-and-south-korea/41082/)
Today has brought disturbing news from the always
AND
its own military to counter South Korean drills."
Trade collapse causes extinction – conceded in the 2AC- no new 1AR answers
Panzer 2008 (Michael J. Pazner,Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, 2008, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse,” p. 137-8)
The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring
AND
as the beginnings of a new world war.

UQ
Solyndra Not a big deal now- If it becomes one it will do so well after free trade has passed
Lamel 9/16 (Joshua Lamel, Cofounder and principal, J2 Public Strategies, former Congressional staffer, Politico, google)
Solyndra is a headache for the White House
AND
of Solyndra's failure is the more relevant discussion.
China Doesn’t cost capital- Obama is staying out of the fight
SC Times 9/29 (“Senate focuses on currency, imbalance in trade with China,” google)
Last year, the House of Representatives voted
AND
maintain good relations with a major trade partner.

Top of the agenda- This week is key- Ratification by October
Dennis 9/22 (Steven T. Dennis, September 22, 2011, “Senate Passes Trade Assistance Bill,” Roll Call, google)
The Senate passed legislation today to provide job
AND
be signed into law by mid-October.”

Will pass- House deal on TAA passage is imminent
Inside US Trade 9/30 (“White House May Submit FTAs as Early as Next Week, but No Deal Yet,” Lexis)
Opponents and supporters of the pending free trade
AND
Inside U.S. Trade, Sept. 

Links

Plan costs capital—Congress supports the Yemen government
Newman 2010 (Alex Newman, February 25, 2010, “U.S. Steps Up Military Aid to Yemen,” New American, http://thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/asia-mainmenu-33/3020-us-steps-up-military-aid-to-yemen)
But despite the overwhelming evidence condemning the regime
AND
hurt taxpayers, the military and the economy.

Congress prioritizes other forms of aid over democracy assistance
Porges 2010 (Marisa Porges, November 16, 2010, “Is Counterterrorism Enough?” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67008/marisa-l-porges/saving-yemen?page=2)
Although the U.S. Congress allocated
AND
power and use terrorism to increase international support.

Assistance unpopular—We don’t think they’ve done enough on counterterrorism
Boucek 2010 (Dr. Christopher Boucek, Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “YEMEN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY,” Testimony before the House, February 3, 2010, online)
It is essential that Washington take a holistic
AND
issues that will contribute indirectly to improving domestic security

A2 Winners win

Their evidence assumes a new president; not true at this point—Clinton proves.
Nather, 2008 (David Nather, CQ Staff Writer, CQ Today Online News, November 9, google)
Taking up measures such as the children’s health
AND
the easy victories were out of the way.

Not true for Obama—PC is finite.
Ryan, 2009 (Selwyn Ryan, Professor of Social Science at the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, University of West Indies. Ph.D. in Political Science from Cornell, Trinidad Express, January 18, google)
Like many, I expect much from Obama
AND
in cyberspace (the latent "Obama Party").

Extra Cards

Heg solves their impacts and extinction
Thayer 2007 (Bradley A. Thayer, Associate Professor in the Dept. of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, 2007 American Empire: A Debate, “Reply to Christopher Layne” p 118)
To abandon its leadership role would be a
AND
is the last, best hope of humanity.

Topicality 1NC
A. Interpretation: the aff must prove an example of the resolution true.
The subject: central government (united states federal government)
The verb: increase (to make greater or larger)
The object: democracy assistance
Democracy assistance is a non-profit transfer.
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)
Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as
AND
precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

United States Federal Government is the central government in Washington D.C.
West’s Legal Thesaurus/Dictionary. 1985 (p. 744. MHHAR7000)
United States; usually means the federal government centered in Washington, DC

B. The aff violates (pick one or more)
[the subject: the central government in Washington DC]
[the object: the object of the plan is the judge, not democracy assistance]
C. Reasons to prefer:
Infinite regression—disregarding resolutional syntax produces an endless regression to small, trivial plans. For example, an aff only about the subject opens the door to ANY philosophy that speaks to ‘being’.
Limits—resolutional limits encourage aff innovation, predictive research on a designated topic, and clash—a precursor to productive education. Also, the inherent value of arguments within limits is greater, which link turns education arguments.
Without precision the topic is unlimited- no meaning to the word “democracy.”
Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)
Conclusion This article has examined the emergence of
AND
of formulating effective democratic means will remain improbable.
The act is extra topical – they end the muslim outreach program in order to increase the notion of democracy – it’s not a positive action – relies on the effects of solvency to be topical – it’s bad generates unpredictable affirmatives – can create weird plan/solvency mechs which ruin neg flexibility – hurts topic education – independent voting issue for fairness and education.
D. If our interpretation is net-beneficial it means there’s no reason to vote affirmative. If the case is true then it de-justifies the resolution. Teams are still signified by ‘aff’ and ‘neg’, so the resolution is a required measurement for ‘affirmation.’
EU CP
Text: Europe should announce themselves as an autonomous ideological, political and economic force, with its own priorities, with their main priority to act as a counterweight to Americanized exceptionalism.
Post 9/11 the only check on U.S. Empire is a unified Europe- only an autonomous unified political Europe can solve.
Slavoj Zizek, pub. date: 2002, Senior Researcher @ the Institute for Social Studies at Ljublijana, Welcome to the Desert of the Real, p. 143-145
According to the Ancient Greek myth, Europa
AND
unified Europe as a counterweight to Americanized globalism.
Only Europe is situated to resist American Empire- all other resistance has been assimilated
Slavoj Zizek, pub. date: 2002, Senior Researcher @ the Institute for Social Studies at Ljublijana, Welcome to the Desert of the Real, p. 146
These complaints are sustained by the more fundamental
AND
the same coin, Jihad is already McJihad.
 

1NC Neolib

Increases in democracy assistance strengthen neoliberalism’s reach – civil society incorporates markets
Marius I. Tatar (Sociology Department at University of Bucharest and assistant professor in Political Science at University of Oradea, Romania) July/August 2008 “The Impact of International Assistance on the Romanian Advocacy NGOs” in “Changing Europe Summer School III
Central and Eastern Europe in a Globalized World”  http://www.changing-europe.org/download/Summer_School_2008/Tatar.pdf
Democracy assistance played an important role in the
AND
values necessary for the successful consolidation of democracy.
Neoliberalism solves poverty
Doug Bandow (senior fellow at the CATO Institute) March 25th, 2001 “Globalization Serves the World's Poor” http://www.cato.org/dailys/04-25-01.html
Indeed, the problems of globalization must always
AND
market reforms. With them comes increased wealth. 

Neoliberal democracy solves extinction
Henry Teune, Political Science Department at the University of Pennsylvania, May, 2002 “Global Democracy”, The Annals of The American Academy of Political and Social Science, 581 Annals 22, Lexis
During the past three decades, social scientists
AND
century's end, following the spread of democracy.  

Neoliberalism solves war – interdependence
Daniel T. Griswold (director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute) 2006 CATO Institute, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men” http://www.freetrade.org/node/282
First, trade and globalization have reinforced the
AND
away what they can produce best at home. 

The capitalist order is the foundation for US hegemony.
Peter Gowan. "US Hegemony Today." Monthly Review. 2003. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/is_3_55/ai_105368629/pg_1
American hegemony since 1945 has been structurally different
AND
of international capital accumulation throughout the capitalist world.

Leadership is key to solve every major impact
Bradley A. Thayer, November/December, 2006 “In Defense of Primacy,” NATIONAL INTEREST Issue 86
THROUGHOUT HISTORY, peace and stability have been
AND
humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg.

Retreat 1NC
First is the link— The affirmative’s attempt to sidestep the costs and benefits of policy implementation demonstrates their orientation toward their project lacks seriousness
Isaac 2002—Jeffrey C. Isaac is James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life at Indiana University, Bloomington. Dissent / Spring 2002
Politics is about ends and means—about
AND
in the society in which these activists live.
Next is the impact—Their retreat to local concerns enables unsolved global problems to assure extinction—Their method solves nothing, but cedes the political to authoritarian reactions
Boggs 1997—Dr. Carl Boggs Professor Ph.D. Political Science, University of California, Berkeley National University Social Sciences 1997 “The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America ” Theory and Society 26: 741-780, 1997.
The decline of the public sphere in late
AND
interests that had vanished from civil society.75  
And, the aff is doomed to failure—Their activist reaction to deliberation lacks epistemic modesty – it engages in a form of knowledge production which replicates injustice
Talisse 2006—Robert B. Talisse Department of Philosophy, Vanderbilt University 2006 Deliberativist responses to activist challenges A continuation of Young’s dialectic Philosophy & Social Criticism 31 (4) [In this article, the activist is ‘he’ and the deliberativist is ‘she’]
That Young’s activist is not reasonable in this
AND
the activist denies this, he is unreasonable.
The alternative is to embrace the risks associated with defending the implementation of their values as policy—Only embracing risk fills political space to resist the worst abuses of a military state
Rule 2010—The Military State of America and the Democratic Left WINTER 2010 DISSENT James B. Rule is affiliated with the Center for the Study of Law and Society at the University of California, Berkeley, 2010 and a longtime member of Dissent’s Editorial Board. His latest book is Privacy in Peril (Ebsco)
In a dangerous world, any course of
AND
domestic well-being are far more alarming.

This serious political commitment provides the only hope to avoid the worst impacts and the internal links to their offense
Isaac 2002—Jeffrey C. Isaac is James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life at Indiana University, Bloomington. Dissent / Spring 2002
Second, it would mean frankly acknowledging something
AND
never be mistaken for a serious political commitment.

Case
Having the judge take the position of the subaltern ensures a form of speaking for others that reifies subjugation and colonial oppression
Ilan Kapoor (in the Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University) 2004 “Hyper-self-reflexive development? Spivak on representing the Third World ‘Other’” Third World Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 4 http://www.seedwiki.com/accounts/Andreotti_Vanessa_14720/selreflexive.pdf
Thus, for Spivak, it is dangerous
AND
speak and be heard’ (1991: 26).

The subaltern is not a monolithic entity to examine – the aff’s methodology is just another form of silencing the subaltern
Ilan Kapoor (in the Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University) 2004 “Hyper-self-reflexive development? Spivak on representing the Third World ‘Other’” Third World Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 4 http://www.seedwiki.com/accounts/Andreotti_Vanessa_14720/selreflexive.pdf
Thus, both Escobar and Shiva fail to
AND
, another form of silencing of the subaltern. 

First, Objections to the personal practice of Utilitarianism are irrelevant. Utilitarianism is public policy which requires that leaders take the action which is in the best interest of their people.
William H. Shaw. PhD. Contemporary Ethics: Taking Account of Utilitarianism. P. 171-2. 1999
Utilitarianism ties right and wrong to the promotion
AND
against it when viewed as a public philosophy. 

Second, Moral absolutism results in paralysis and tragedy. Only Utilitarianism can resolve these moral conflicts.
Gerard Elfstrom. “Ethics for a Shrinking World” 1990. p. 21-22.
But if utilitarianism and rights-based theories
AND
ways very difficult for rights theories to match.

Fourth, We don’t have to win that there alternative system of ethics is bad. Utilitarianism does not require one to forsake all other moral codes
William H. Shaw. PhD. Contemporary Ethics: Taking Account of Utilitarianism. P. 170. 1999.
Although the principle of utility remains the final
AND
them aside in an effort to boost utility.

Ignoring the question of action because of ontology causes paralysis
David McClean (philosopher, writer and business consultant, conducted graduate work in philosophy at NYU) 2001 “The cultural left and the limits of social hope” http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm
There is a lot of philosophical prose on
AND
reform as more important than Spirit and Utopia.
accusations of orientalism suffocates academic research and allows the most violent forms of orientalist violence to manifest themselves
Joshua Teitelbaum is Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, and Adjunct Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan University and Meir Litvak is Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern and African History, Tel Aviv University. Dr. Teitelbaum began his studies at UCLA in 1976; Dr. Litvak began his at Tel Aviv University in 1980. In this article, they reflect on the influence of Said's Orientalism throughout their years of studying and teaching about Islam and the Middle East. March, 2006. “STUDENTS, TEACHERS, AND EDWARD SAID: TAKING STOCK OF ORIENTALISM” online
The argument that the Occident (or actually
AND
fearful of developing an opinion of their own.

Pressure CP 1NC
Text: The United States federal government should communicate to the government of Bahrain that it will issue a report finding “credible allegations of gross violations of human rights” in the Bahrain military unless Bahrain promptly releases jailed opposition leaders and makes measurable progress towards constitutional monarchy.
Solvency
Triggers an automatic cutoff in military aid unless Bahrain complies.
Compliance Campaign, 3-15-2011, “International, domestic law requires the U.S. to cut aid to Bahrain,” http://compliancecampaign.wordpress.com/2011/03/15/international-domestic-law-requires-the-u-s-to-cut-aid-to-gulf-states/
Following Bahrain’s declaration of martial law and Saudi
AND
or other operations consistent with the UN Charter.

The counterplan is the only way to accelerate the reform process and restore U.S credibility.
Joost R. Hiltermann, 9-17-2011, Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, Foreign Affairs, “Pushing for Reform in Bahrain,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68246/joost-r-hiltermann/pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain
How Washington should now proceed is an open
AND
standards in its approach to the Arab Spring.
Saudi Arabia DA
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are on the same page about Bahrain, but relations are on the brink - the plan collapses the alliance.
Michael W. Hanna, 3-18-2011, fellow and program officer at The Century Foundation, former senior fellow at the International Human Rights Law Institute, term-member of the Council on Foreign Relations, “Saudi Arabia: Royal Succession, Regional Turmoil,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8120/saudi-arabia-royal-succession-regional-turmoil
The kingdom's current defensive posture with regard to
AND
would affect its authority to determine royal succession.

Collapses the dollar.
Ian Bremmer (president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm, serves on the Board of Trustees of the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, Chair of the Forum's Global Agenda Council for Geopolitical Risk, former National Fellow at the Hoover Institute) March 2011 “Washington’s stark choice: Democracy or Riyadh” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/493c8dd0-50b7-11e0-9227-00144feab49a.html#axzz1VVZpcHf6
Events of the past three months have shattered
AND
for the dollar as the primary reserve currency.

Dollar collapse will ensure a US-China war
Mead 2004 (Walter Russell- Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, “America's STICKY Power,” Foreign Policy, Mar/Apr)
Similarly, in the last 60 years,
AND
.-Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.

Draws in Russia, ends in extinction
Straits Times 6-25-2000
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross
AND
, we would see the destruction of civilization.
Fifth Fleet push 1NC

1. U.S. will absorb loss of a Bahrain base – spurs shift to more flexible and responsive fleet – solves your impacts
   Michael Koplovsky, 10-23-2006, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, “Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387
   Despite adamant arguments outlining the essential nature of
   AND
   preparing itself for future challenges in the region.
   
   2. The Fifth fleet is of no strategic importance to the U.S. – cost and flexibility
   Toby C. Jones, 6-10-2011, is assistant professor of history at Rutgers University, The Atlantic, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/
   It is widely believed that the Fifth Fleet
   AND
   Fleet would be a good place to start.
   3. Turn - Fifth Fleet presence in the Gulf is bad - incites Iran and causes terrorist attacks on U.S. ships.
   Geoffrey Gresh, January 2010, is a graduate student at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University and former Rotary Ambassadorial Scholar to Turkey, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, http://vlex.com/vid/traversing-gauntlet-naval-strait-hormuz-229098899
   The United States has long employed a strategy
   AND
   on the carrier group or instill fear.5
   
   4. Protestors don’t want the U.S. to withdraw.
   Bruce W. Jentleson, Summer 2011, Duke University Professor and Former State Department Policy Planning Director Senior Advisor,  “Beware the Duck Test,” Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Jentleson.pdf
   The 1979 Iran analogy is today’s Munich equivalent
   AND
   not Iran-like roots in the revolution.
   5. The carrier is an obsolete concept - the balance of weaponry has shifted too far in favor of offensive missile capabilities - can’t possibly engage Russian or Chinese forces.
   Robert Rubel, 2011, Dean, CNWS Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College Review, “The Future of Aircraft Carriers,” http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/87bcd2ff-c7b6-4715-b2ed-05df6e416b3b/The-Future-of-Aircraft-Carriers
   As for the capital-ship role,
   AND
   given the complexity and expense of modern jets.

Heg doesn’t solve war
Barbara Conry (former associate policy analyst, was a public relations consultant at Hensley Segal Rentschler and an expert on security issues in the Middle East, Western Europe, and Central Asia at the CATO Institute) and Charles V. Pena (Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute as well as a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, and an adviser on the Straus Military Reform Project at the CATO Institute) 2003 “47. US Security Strategy” CATO Handbook for Congress, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb108/hb108-47.pdf
Another rationale for attempting to manage global security
AND
from political, economic, or military conflagration.
Iran Shia/Sunni 1NC
The opposition won’t accept the plan
Minneapolis Post, 4-20-2011, “Bahrain's crackdown is pushing both sides to extremes,” http://www.minnpost.com/worldcsm/2011/04/20/27631/bahrains_crackdown_is_pushing_both_sides_to_extremes
While there’s been no mention of dialogue from
AND
it's going to start looking like real democracy.”

1. The AFF is irrelevant - no risk of Iranian influence or radicalization, regime change won’t undermine U.S. grand strategy, and dialogue will inevitably crumble because moderate parties have died and the Prime Minister won’t negotiate.
   Barak Barfi, 4-28-2011, Research Fellow, New America Foundation, "The Arab Uprisings and U.S. Policy: What Is the American National Interest?," Middle East Policy Vol. 18, Issue 2, www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/arab-uprisings-and-us-policy?print
   I was also able to spend some time
   AND
   incursion into the West Bank in April 2002.
   2. Turn - Obama support of Bahraini Shia causes Saudi/Shia uprising.
   M. K. Bhadrakumar, 5-24-2011, Career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, Asia Times Online, “Decoding Obama's Bahrain puzzle,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME24Ak02.html
   Obama's approach is diametrically opposite the Manichean vision
   AND
   which would be the mother of all reforms.
   
   3. Plan causes massive backlash from protestors - they can’t win uniqueness - Shias aren’t radicalized, all radicalization is a product of perceived U.S. involvement.
   Justin Gengler, 7-15-2011, is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain, "The other side of radicalization in Bahrain," mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain
   In a July 6 interview with Egyptian journalists
   AND
   Khalifa: God Save Bahrain from the Traitors." 

Oil shocks in the Middle east impact is short-lived – several checks prevent prices from getting too out of control
Eugene Gholz (assistant professor of public affairs at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas) and Daryl G. Press (associate professor of government at Dartmouth College) April 2007 “Energy Alarmism
The Myths That Make Americans Worry about Oil” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-589.pdf
In the five major oil supply shocks caused
AND
, and major consumers to smooth risks.73 

2NC
Pressure cp
Literature base overwhelmingly rejects the thesis of your argument
Christopher J. Fettweis (assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, Ph.D. University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics, University of Notre Dame) 2010 “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy” April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82
For individuals as well as states, pathologies
AND
how small the issue or large the odds.
Impact
Extinction.  
Kamal Nawash, pub. date: January 2009, immigration lawyer and legal director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War,” http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/?p=3501
The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is
AND
answer is YES but time is running out.
Uniqueness 2NC
BRINK: Relations are maintaining some balance, but further democracy efforts could undermine them.
Brazier, 9/27 (James Brazier, Global Insight, “Pakistan Intelligence Officials Talk to Saudi and Chinese Counterparts” 2011, lexis)
Saudi trade relations with China have also blossomed
AND
to a period of greater foreign policy defiance.
WALK BACK: Washington’s diplomatic approach has been balanced so far- the nature of the plan threatens Saudi.
Lobe, 9/29 (Jim Lobe, IPS - Inter Press Service, “BAHRAIN: U.S. CONGRESS URGED TO REJECT ARMS SALE” 2011, lexis)
Although the Obama administration initially denounced the Bahraini
AND
strengthen Iran's influence and position in the Gulf.
STRATEGY TIPPING POINT: Obama’s strategy is holding the 2 nations together, though democratic idealism looms.
Kitfield, 6/21 ( The National Journal July 21, 2011 LENGTH: 3448 words HEADLINE: Saudia Arabia, Iran Reorient Foreign Policy Amid Middle East Unrest of Arab Spring BYLINE: James Kitfield, lexis)
Now the two countries have been bickering behind
AND
Syria's Assad after initially offering him qualified support.
The Saudis haven't
AND
has two bellwethers Riyadh
U.S. and Saudi Arabia are maintaining relations in the short term now over concerns about Arab instability.
Robin Wright  et. al, 2011, is a journalist and foreign policy analyst, Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Aaron David Miller of the Woodrow Wilson International Center, The Diane Rehm show, “The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Spring,” http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2011-06-08/us-saudi-arabia-and-arab-spring/transcript
What role does Saudi Arabia play in the
AND
backed away, which led to increased strife.

2NC Link
Bahrain is the key issue for relations - the plan marks the end of the alliance.
ICG (The International Crisis Group), 7-28-2011, is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization committed to preventing and resolving global conflicts, "POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII):BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM," http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf
Following on the heels of the Tunisian and
AND
time, would lead to a constitutional monarchy.
Assistance to Bahrain will jar the Saudi/U.S. relationship.
Anna Fifield, 6-16-2011, the FT's US political correspondent, Financial Times, “Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship,” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html
The wave of democracy spreading across the Middle
AND
veiled warning to Washington of further looming problems.
Promoting democracy in Bahrain would trade off with Saudi relations – it’s a zero-sum relationship.
Robin Wright  et. al, 2011, is a journalist and foreign policy analyst, Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Aaron David Miller of the Woodrow Wilson International Center, The Diane Rehm show, “The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Spring,” http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2011-06-08/us-saudi-arabia-and-arab-spring/transcript
Is Saudi Arabia becoming a liability for the
AND
regime stay in power because that is stability.
Fostering democratic movements in Bahrain will break the already strained relationship with Saudi Arabia.
Jessica Stern & Peter Bergen, 4-25-2011, leading expert on terrorism. She serves on the Hoover Institution Task Force on National Security and Law and served on the National Security Council under President Clinton, Bergen is a director at the National Securities Program at the New America Foundation and fellow at New York University’s Center on Law & Security, On Point with Tom Ashbroook, “Al-Qaida And The Arab Spring,” http://onpoint.wbur.org/2011/04/25/arab-spring
“For the Saudis, the monarchy is
AND
course the day after Gates came and visited.

Religious backlash – 1NC Hanna evidence says that Saudis have held off internal instability now by beginning to lean on the religious establishment in opposition to Bahrain democratic wants – plan causes empowerment of religious hardliners that ensures extremist violence – here’s more evidence
Toby Jones (Formerly the Gulf Analyst with the International Crisis Group, he is assistant professor of Middle East history at Rutgers University) April 2011 “Counterrevolution in the Gulf” http://www.usip.org/files/resources/PB%2089%20Counterrevolution%20in%20the%20Gulf.pdf
One of the most important outcomes of the
AND
the globalization of violent extremism in subsequent decades.
A2 Veto
Palestine will withdraw its submission- no veto necessary.
INFO 2040, 9/22 (Cornell, “Game Theory in the Vote for Palestinian Statehood” 2011 http://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2011/09/22/game-theory-in-the-vote-for-palestinian-statehood/)
To the Palestinians, a veto could potentially
AND
decisions that the US and Palestine will make.
*No veto: return to peace talks or ‘NO’ votes that won’t necessitate a veto.
Radia, 9/20 (ABC news,  By Kirit Radia Sep 20, 2011 10:20pm U.S., Allies Shift Tactics on Palestinian Vote, End Effort to Dissuade Abbas, google)
Envoys from the Quartet met today for the
AND
also avoiding a U.S. veto.

A2 Resiliency
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are playing a careful balancing act in terms of democracy promotion – the plan would upset the balance.
Laura Rozen, 3-15-2011, The Envoy, “New tensions mar U.S. optimism on “Arab spring”,” http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/dark-clouds-gather-over-washington-early-hopes-arab-20110315-131116-145.html
As worrying for Washington, Riyadh's insertion of
AND
two most important allies," Washington and Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia is not resilient, it’s incredibly fragile – assumes your warrants
Gordon S. Chang (J.D. Cornell Law, Columnist for Forbes) April 3, 2011 “A fragile House of Saud” http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/04/03/040311-opinions-column-saudi-chang-1-2/
Yet King Abdullah sits atop a political system
AND
is only encouraging the discontented to demand more.

Takes out aff solvency
Kristina Kausch (a researcher at FRIDE, European think tank for global action. Prior to joining FRIDE in 2004, she worked for the German Technical Cooperation agency (GTZ) on programmes of democratic governance and institution-building) May 2010 “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt” Online
A long-term focus of aid policies
AND
, it protects them from government / SSI clampdowns
A2 Shia/Suni adv
No impact to shocks - Prefer Gholz and Press- they are professors at Ivy league schools like Dartmouth - 6 warrants

1.  Cartels - they renegotiate quotas in the short-term to make-up production – they also cheat and overproduce – multiplies shock absorption – competition for profit outweighs impact of oil shocks
   2. Private companies – they have inventories that shield the oil market – crisis reserves buffer economic collapse
   3. Government reserves – they massive – in combination with our allies we have 1.4 billion barrels – enough for at least a year
   4. Rerouting – adjusting production from pipelines to shipping and vice versa solves – any re-routes are minimal – even in small shipping lanes.
   5. Technology – new financial and investment tools make oil market reactions quicker – ensures its only short-lived – prevents complete meltdown.
   6. History – it sets the threshold for plausibility – 5 examples disprove – Iran strikes 1978, Iran collapse 1979, Iran-Iraq war in 1980, the Gulf War in 1991,  oil strikes in Venezuela in 2002, and the Iraq invasion of Kuwait 1990 which dropped global production by 8.8 percent in months - it would also take bigger shocks now to equal past shocks – that’s Gholz and Press – the bar should be high.  Here’s two more empirical examples
   William Nordhaus (Sterling Professor of Economics Professor, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale) September 2007 “Who’s Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?” http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/Big_Bad_Oil_Shock_Meeting.pdf
   In the end, this suggests that much
   AND
   so big nor as bad as in the 1970s
   Failure to extend unequivocal support to the ruling family collapses the relationship and causes Iranian takeover - flips the case.
   S. Rob Sobhani, 3-3-2011, Ph.D. is President of Caspian Energy Consulting, "Bahrain: Standing by an ally," thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/147337-bahrain-standing-by-an-ally
   This tiny island nation of one million has
   AND
   into the hands of Iran or its proxies.
   It causes allied insecurity.
   Thomas Fuller, 3-4-2011, “Bahrainis Fear the U.S. Isn’t Behind Their Fight for Democracy,” Reuters, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/world/middleeast/05bahrain.html
   Justin Gengler, a former Fulbright scholar in
   AND
   abandoning the idea of monarchies in the gulf.”
   A2 Fifth fleet
   Loss of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain key to military flexibility – spurs military re-posturing that causes key tech upgrades.
   Michael Koplovsky, 10-23-2006, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, “Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387
   Could the United States continue to achieve U
   AND
   presence, as recommended by recent Pentagon reports.
   Shift to “echeloning rearward” and sea-basing now – solves your impacts.
   Michael Koplovsky, 10-23-2006, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, “Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387
   Former Commander Southern Command General Paul Gorman has
   AND
   place and at the right time to succeed.
   Technological advances have made carriers obsolete – missiles.
   Robert Rubel, 2011, Dean, CNWS Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College Review, “The Future of Aircraft Carriers,” http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/87bcd2ff-c7b6-4715-b2ed-05df6e416b3b/The-Future-of-Aircraft-Carriers
   Improved Air-Defense Systems. In one
   AND
   if equipped with short-range attack missiles.

Assad regime stable – opposition lacks unity, regime unified, Iran & allied support
Jonathan Spyer 08/26/2011 16:49 Arab World: Is Bashar next?
http://www.jpost.com/Features/FrontLines/Article.aspx?id=235455
At the beginning of… likely to be disappointed.

The regime is stable – information to the contrary is media propaganda
Now Lebanon, Wahhab: Those gambling on Syrian regime collapse have long wait ahead
September 6, 2011    To read more: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=308702#ixzz1XCWlsw8o
Arab Tawhid Party … reported by the media.”

Fall of Assad will result in sectarian conflict – escalating conflict throughout the Middle East and collapsing democratic transitions – turns the case.
Vali Nasr professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Published: August 27, 2011 If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?_r=1
THE Arab Spring is a hopeful … struggle along sectarian lines.

Collapsing of Assad will lead to Hezbollah use of Syrian chemical weapons.
Anshel Pfeffer, September 1, 2011 Syria's chemical weapons may land in the lap of Hizbollah  http://www.thejc.com/news/israel-news/53939/syrias-chemical-weapons-may-land-lap-hizbollah
Control of large stockpiles … watching this situation very carefully."

2NC

Syria is stable – regime is not on the verge of collapse.  On the ground reports prove.
Rajendra Abhyankar chairman of the Kunzru Center for Defense Studies and Research, in Pune, India. He was India's ambassador to Syria from 1992 to 1996 9-2-11 http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/before-we-take-down-assad-1.382095
Is Syria burning? … the Syrian people and the region as a whole.

Assad regime stable – won’t collapse, not susceptible like other Arab spring countries – strictness of regime, and control of the Allawites
Nizar Abdel-Kader a board member of Lebanon's National Defense Journal. August 28, 2011, 2:37 pm  http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/the-fate-of-the-assad-dynasty.html The fate of the Assad dynasty
The main difference between … linked to the survival of Assad's regime.

Assad will maintain power – he is forceful and Syrian public is too worried about what might happen if the regime were to fall.
Andrew Green, — The Telegraph Group Limited, London 2011 Published: 00:00 August 27, 2011 http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/blossoming-of-democracy-in-syria-will-be-long-deadly-1.857601
How will Syria's … of the wrong religion was simply murdered.

Collapse of Assad regime causes sectarian strife, civil war, and escalating conflict throughout the Middle East
Liz Sly, Published: May 1 2011| Updated: Monday, May 2, 7:59 PM Doomsday scenario’ if Syria fails http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/unrest-in-syria-threatens-regional-stability/2011/05/01/AF3OQtUF_story.html
The toppling of the presidents in Tunisia … scenario for the entire Middle East.”

Syrian regime collapse brings the muslim brotherhood to power, causes terrorism, regional war, turns case and causes global economic depression
Juan Cole, Professor of History, University of Michigan, 10/14/2005, http://www.mepc.org/forums_chcs/41.asp
If the United States destabilized … very dangerous to us all.

No chance of soft landing post-Assad, sectarian civil war will engulf the entire Middle East
Trudy Rubin (columnist) Sept 4 2011 Worldview: Stop Syria? It's not as easy as Libya http://www.philly.com/philly/news/columnists/129199088.html
Syria sits in the center of the Arab … landing" after Assad's demise," he adds.

China Bashing
China currency bill is gaining momentum but won’t pass now- Boehner opposition- Passage starts a trade war
ICTSD 10/19 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, “US, EU Press for China Currency Revaluation,” google)
Pressure is growing from the EU and US
AND
war” should the bill eventually become law.
Plan costs capital- Causes huge spending fights in Congress
Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)
The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid
AND
to justify nation-building in foreign countries."
These fights empirically destroy Boehner’s capital
McManus 2011 (Doyle McManus, April 3, 2011, “No party for John Boehner,” LA Times, google)
Last week, Boehner and Reid agreed to
AND
one-third of the cuts they promised.
All of Boehner’s capital is key
Beattie 10/4 (Alan Beattie, “US currency bill drama belies grind ahead,” Financial Times, google)
So, are they serious? Monday’s overwhelming
AND
the Republican presidential nomination, has supported it.
US-China trade conflict guts relations and is the most likely scenario for military escalation
Landy 2007 (Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, April 3, 2007, google)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is
AND
in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Relations key to solve prolif, disease, terrorism and the economy
Hickey 2011  We don’t endorse the gendered language.  (Dennis V. Hickey, James F. Morris Endowed Professor of Political Science and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Studies at the distinguished Missouri State University, Harvard of the Midwest, “Sino-US cooperation essential,” China Daily, google)
After all, cooperation between the two governments
AND
from his angle as well as your own".
1NR cards
Impact OV
War escalates and causes extinction
Straits Times 2000 (June 25, 2000, lexis)
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross
AND
, we would see the destruction of civilization.
China bashing guts relations that prevent inevitable armed conflict
De Santis 10/7 (Hugh De Santis, strategic analyst and consultant, former career officer in the Department of State and senior official at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the RAND Corporation, “China Currency Manipulation: Protectionism Not The Answer,” Atlantic Council, google)
Election-year politics aside, imposing tariffs
AND
that could lead to a renewed cold war.
Their impact defense doesn’t apply- Currency legislation would be unprecedented and destroy stable relations their evidence assumes
Jiao and Haipei 10/11 (Wu Jiao and Cui Haipei, “Warning: Yuan bill to spark trade war,” China Daily, google)
The US imposing sanctions on China would violate
AND
to appreciate its currency relative to another country."
Overwhelms interdependence- Chinese threats prove
Johnsen 10/12 (Erika Johnsen, “Bad Move: The Senate Votes to Slap Sanctions on Chinese Trade,” Town Hall, google)
While it would be nice if the CPC
AND
than we stand to gain by punishing China.

And they conceded a slew of impacts from the 1NC- our Hickey evidence says relations are key to solve terrorism- that turns the case, prolif – that turns the case because it makes wars more likely- none of their actors in the 1AC have nukes now, and disease- that’s extinction
Steinbruner 1998 (John D- Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy)
It is a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a
AND
security problem for the species as a whole.
Economy is escalatory nuclear war- Turns case- Backsliding, regional prolif and diminished regional military presence
Burrows and Harris 2009 (Mathew J. Burrows, counselor in the National Intelligence Council, PhD in European History from Cambridge University, and Jennifer Harris, a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, April 2009 “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf)
Of course, the report encompasses more than
AND
a more dog-eat-dog world.
Keeping trade alive independently solves your aff
O’Driscoll 2003 (Gerald P. O'Driscoll Jr, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. Sara Fitzgerald is a trade policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation February 2003 “Trade Brings Security” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3006)
And, according to research by Edward Mansfield
AND
unprecedented five decades of peace in Western Europe.
UQ
Won’t pass- Boehner blocking
State Column 10/19 (“Editorial: Populist Caucus Urges Vote on Chinese Currency Manipulation Crackdown,” google)
“This is about making sure American businesses
AND
bill from being brought up for a vote.
Won’t pass- Boehner block
AFP 10/18 (“Key US House panel to review trade ties with China,” google)
The remarks from Camp, whose panel oversees
AND
Obama must do more to address the issue.
China bashing has the votes but won’t pass now- Boehner’s key, would be veto-proof
Blankley 10/19 (Tony Blankley, “Blankley: Washington Considers China Trade War,” GOP USA, google)
It's not that anything new has been revealed
AND
a bill if it got to his desk.
Won’t pass- Boehner’s the man
Oregon Live 10/14 (“On Trade Policy Boehner leads Obama Follows,” google)
We need to be careful what we ask
AND
it come to a vote in the House.
Boehner can block a vote despite pressure
Palmer and Eckert 10/14 (Doug Palmer and Paul Eckert, “US delays China currency report; lawmakers push bill,” Reuters, google)
Beijing says it is committed to gradual currency
AND
79, when it was controlled by Democrats.

Veto

Obama won’t veto
Palmer and Spetalnick 10/7 (Doug Palmer and Matt Spetalnick, “Obama hits China on trade; cautious on currency bill,” Reuters, google)
If the House were to pass the bill
AND
that we're not getting cheated in the process."
Obama won’t commit to a veto
AP 10/6 (“Obama voices reservations on China sanction bill, but does not say he would veto it,” Washington Post, google)
President Barack Obama says China has “gamed
AND
products and that it takes away American jobs.

A2 Link Turns
Key members of Congress won’t buy their link turns
Karmi 2011 (Omar Karmi, August 2, 2011, “US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem,” The National, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem)
Some cuts to foreign aid look likely.
AND
terrorist organisation participate in government in any way.
Republican Study Committee hates the plan
MFAN 2011 (Modernizing Foreign Assistance Network, January 26, 2011, “MFAN Statement: RSC Budget Proposal Would Derail Progress on Foreign Assistance Reform,” google)
We strongly oppose last week’s Republican Study Committee
AND
societies, and empowered citizens in developing countries.

RSC is most important House caucus- Will come down hard on Boehner
Ota 2008 (Alan K. Ota, June 9, 2008, “RSC Clout Grows, Tests Boehner's Leadership,” CQ Research)
In what may be a preview of internal
AND
American people know the difference between the parties.”
Boehner’s sustained push now is key
Snell and House 10/12 (Kelsey Snell and Billy House, “Unclear Fate for Bill to Retaliate Against China on Currency,” National Journal, google)
The Senate briefly set aside partisan conflict on
AND
62 fellow House Republicans who support such a measure

Payroll Tax

Payroll tax extension will pass- Obama is key

Lee 11/10 (Carol Lee, “White House to Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut,” WSJ, http://goo.gl/uoAT4)

The White House is gearing up to make

AND

Both expire at the end of the year.

Plan costs capital- Causes huge spending fights in Congress

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

AND

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

All of Obama’s political capital is key

Philly 9/8 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

The solution is to pump more money into

AND

the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

Beating GOP on payroll tax key to election

AP 10/12 (“Clash over economy sets tone for 2012 election,” http://goo.gl/qSUTs)

Obama had been campaigning for the bill,

AND

bill and seek passage of its component parts.

Obama reelection only way to solve warming

Lewis 9/11 (Laurence Lewis, “Climate change and 2012: The Republican war with scientific reality,” Daily Kos, google)

The Republicans are climate deniers. In scientific

AND

are in a paradigm where science doesn't exist.

Extinction

Tickell 2008 (Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees

AND

be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.

MCC

Text:

The Millennium Challenge Corporation should take all steps necessary to expand funding eligibility to non-governmental organizations seeking to promote democracy in Yemen, including sufficiently lowering indicator requirements to account for a smaller scale of measurement.  The Millennium Challenge Corporation should propose and advocate sub-national compacts with eligible NGOs through their Threshold Program.  This compact should include increase the democracy assistance portions of Overseas Prosecutorial Development, Assistance and Training services to Yemen.

MCC funding eligibility should be expanded to democracy NGO’s

Thomas I. Palley (Director, Globalization Reform Project Open Society Institute) January 2003 “The Millennium Challenge Accounts: Elevating the Significance of Democracy as a Qualifying Criterion” http://www.opensocietypolicycenter.org/pub/doc_26/mca_proposal.pdf

Just as democratic considerations should figure prominently in

AND

state and local government can prevent such practices.

MCC solves shortcomings of democracy Assistance – comparatively solves better

michael a. cohen and maria figueroa küpçü (New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute) 2009 “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf

Consolidating development and democracy assistance in one empowered

AND

and encouraging the indigenous development of democratic institutions.

They’ll say yes – Studies prove

Doug Johnson (Harvard Kennedy School of Government) and Tristan Zajonc (Public Policy PhD Candidate Institute for Quantitative Social Science (K320) John F. Kennedy School of Government) April 2006 “Can Foreign Aid Create an Incentive for Good Governance?

Evidence from the Millennium Challenge Corporation” http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~tzajonc/mcc_wp_apr06.pdf

Even though the MCC is still in its

AND

suggest that the MCC incentive effect is real.

Uniqueness cp

Text:  The United States Federal Government should cap and freeze all democracy assistance to Middle Eastern and North African countries.

No offense – democracy aid being cut now

Sarah Trister (Freedom House's Congressional liaison and is responsible for promoting Freedom House priorities and projects on Capitol Hill) May 2011 “Investing in Freedom: Analyzing the FY 2012 International Affairs Budget Request”

Yet, on February 19th, when the

AND

of total U.S. Government spending.

No aid now – budget and congressional opposition outweighs rhetoric

William Taylor (State Department’s Special Coordinator for Middle East Transitions, specifically Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya) November 3, 2011 “Special Briefing on U.S. Support for the Democratic Transitions Underway in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya”

And secondly, given that our resources are

AND

got this OPIC loan guarantee that we’re coming.

Black Swan

Adopt the position of a critical intellectual – this debate is about what kind of knowledge we produce as students – the aff relies on a flawed method of causation - if they cannot develop a coherent theory of human interaction to explain their predictions - vote neg on presumption

Steven Bernstein et al (Richard Ned Lebow, Janice Gross Stein, and Steven Weber, University of Toronto, Ohio State, and Berkeley) 2000 “God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World” European Journal of International Relations vol 43 No 6

This vision has been largely lost From the

AND

why things turned out the way they did.

The affirmatives attempt to manipulate the Arab Spring towards ‘stability’ is an artificial suppression of inevitable volatility that causes explosive blowback – flips the aff

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute) and Mark Blyth (Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University) May/June 2011 “The Black Swan of Cairo”

Why is surprise the permanent condition of the

AND

without noise—and no stability without volatility.∂

Saudi Arabia

US pragmatism is preserving the Saudi relationship—the plan alters the Middle East strategy, violating the deal with Riyadh.

Escobar, 11-2

Pepe Escobar, Asia Times Online, “The Pentagon-Arab Spring love story” 2011 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MK02Ak01.html

This whole scenario was predictable ever since Washington

AND

business like the "security architecture" business.

This shreds relations – Causes Saudi-Iran War.

Vali Nasr (Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former Senior Fellow with The Dubai Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University) May 23, 2011 “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?”

In his speech last week on the Middle

AND

S. in the middle of the conflict.

Saudi Arabia controls the direction of every major uprising – they control the Islamic element of every Arab Spring country – link flips the entirety of the aff.

John R. Bradley (Foreign correspondant to the Middle East for a number of news agencies including The Washington Quarterly, The New York Post, The London Sunday Times, The Financial Times, The Independent, The Washington Times, Newsweek, Asia Times Online, and The Economist) October 13, 2011 “Saudi Arabia's Invisible Hand in the Arab Spring” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136473/john-r-bradley/saudi-arabias-invisible-hand-in-the-arab-spring

Saudi Arabia has played a singular role throughout

AND

the uprisings is that the exact opposite happened.

Say no

99% of Yemenis do not want U.S. intervention

Yemen Times 2011 (“American survey reviews Al-Qaeda popularity in Yemen,” April 8, )

Just one percent of Yemenis felt the U

AND

with Islam and that Western culture corrupts Muslims.

Yemenis are distrustful of U.S. intervention – they want a new government free of foreign attachments

Iran English Radio 2011 (“Yemeni party wants US, Saudi envoys out,” June 15, )

The deputy head of Yemen's Democratic Party has

AND

Israeli and European sources claim Saleh is dead.

A2 Advantage one – Intelligence gathering

Agroterrorism not possible – too many obstacles

Stratfor, “Placing the Terrorist Threat to the Food Supply in Perspective” April 22, 2008

While attacks against the food supply may appear

AND

to produce and effectively disperse in large quantities.

No resource wars

Idean Salehyan (Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas) May 2008 “From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet*” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 45, no. 3 http://emergingsustainability.org/files/resolver%20climate%20change%20and%20conflict.pdf

First, the deterministic view has poor predictive

AND

peaceful action can immunize states from armed insurrection.

Al-Awlaki death forces AQAP to turn inward – no major attacks

Stratfor September 30, 2011 “Yemen's AQAP Will Continue Ideological, Physical Battle After al-Awlaki's Death” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110930-yemens-aqap-will-continue-ideological-physical-battle-after-al-awlakis-death

Al-Awlaki’s death would deprive AQAP of

AND

whether al-Awlaki is dead or not.

AQAP not a threat – its all political posturing

James Spencer (Retired British Infantry, Strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen) June 8, 2011 “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants”

Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the West's chief

AND

behind U.S. support for Yemen.

AQAP not a threat

James Spencer (Retired British Infantry, Strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen) June 8, 2011 “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants”

The special operations group of AQAP, mostly

AND

the special operations group's capability will be lost.

AQAP is small and cant rally people to commit violence

Alistair Harris ( former diplomat and UN staff member. He is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and frequent commentator for RUSI on Middle Eastern issues, as well as director of the research consultancy Pursue Ltd) May 2010 “Exploiting Grievances Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” http://carnegieendowment.org/files/exploiting_grievances.pdf

As stated repeatedly by the government of Yemen

AND

and rally tribes to the violent jihadi cause.

A2 Advantage two – Money laundering

No impact to Mexico collapse.

Jeff Vail, 2007, Air Force intelligence officer and Department of the Interior counter-terrorism analyst where he specialized in energy infrastructure protection, “Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?,”

Before I highlight the specific events that are

AND

of the end of the Nation-State)

Latin America is resilient – public support guarantees no failed states.

Richard L. Millett, Jennifer S. Holmes & Orlando J. Pérez, 12-15-2008, Richard is a Senior Advisor for Political Risk to the PRS Group and Adjunct Prof. @ the Defense Institute of Security Assistance Management and is Prof. Emeritus in the Department of Historical Studies at Southern Illinois University, Jennifer is Assoc. Prof. of Political Economy and Political Science @ the Univ. of Texas at Dallas, Orlando is Prof. of Political Science @ Central Michigan University and is a member of the Scientific Support Group for the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) @ Vanderbilt University, Latin American Democracy Emerging Reality or Endangered Species?, p. 16, Google Books

If we think about consolidation by asking Giuseppe

AND

of progress are often accompanied by undemocratic practices.

Significant progress already made in combatting drug cartel power

 U.S. Agencies Infiltrating Drug Cartels Across Mexico

Published: October 24, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/world/americas/united-states-infiltrating-criminal-groups-across-mexico.html

WASHINGTON — American law enforcement agencies have significantly

AND

as does the northward flow of illegal drugs.

Poor and corrupt enforcement of legal reforms in Yemen make judicial assistance impossible

Burke 2010 (Edward, associate researcher at FRIDE, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” FRIDE, European think tank for global action, May, www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf )

Prospects for judicial reform are increasingly limited;

AND

their efforts to support government-led reform.

Extra Cards

Economic institutions ensure bounceback even if there is a total meltdown

Glenn Somerville. "Paulson: Economy resilient but Fed move helpful." Reuters. 22 Jan. 2008. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080122/bs_nm/usa_economy_paulson_dc

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Tuesday he

AND

and our long term economic fundamentals are healthy."

2NC

2NC Uniqueness CP

No aid now.

Reuters, 11/3

Susan Cornwell, “US says its civilian aid to Afghanistan has peaked” 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/afghanistan-usa-aid-idUSN1E7A22EZ20111104

Part of what was dubbed a "smart

AND

overseas spending to try to address budget shortfalls.

Cuts now

Joel Paque (US Global Leadership Coalition) November 1, 2011 “Cuts to Diplomacy and Development Limit American Influence in the Arab Spring” http://www.usglc.org/2011/11/01/cuts-to-diplomacy-and-development-limit-american-influence-in-the-arab-spring/

Unfortunately, the development and diplomacy tools that

AND

cuts since the height of the Cold War.

2NC Turns Case - Yemen

Saudis sabotage the aff – their reaction to the plan ensures Yemen rejects U.S. assistance – knee-jerk Saudi reactions are the root cause of instability.

Bernard Haykel (Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University) June 14, 2011 “Saudi Arabia's Yemen dilemma” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/14/saudi-arabias-yemen-dilemma/

Saudi Arabia, perpetually in fear of chaos

AND

-ideological nature of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy.

Saudis will sabotage any Yemen transition.

Daniel L. Byman (Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy) March 22, 2011 “What's Next for Yemen?” http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0322_yemen_byman.aspx

Should Saleh fall, Yemen's prospects for stability

AND

give financial and other support to his enemies.

2NC Impact Dump

Solves Israel war, Iran hegemony, and prevents dollar collapse.

Ian Bremmer (president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm, serves on the Board of Trustees of the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, Chair of the Forum's Global Agenda Council for Geopolitical Risk, former National Fellow at the Hoover Institute) March 2011 “Washington’s stark choice: Democracy or Riyadh” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/493c8dd0-50b7-11e0-9227-00144feab49a.html#axzz1VVZpcHf6

Events of the past three months have shattered

AND

for the dollar as the primary reserve currency.

Israel-Palestine war goes nuclear.

Kamal Nawash, January 2009, immigration lawyer and legal director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War,”

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is

AND

answer is YES but time is running out.

Dollar collapse will ensure a US-China war

Mead 2004 (Walter Russell- Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, “America's STICKY Power,” Foreign Policy, Mar/Apr)

Similarly, in the last 60 years,

AND

.-Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.

Draws in Russia, ends in extinction.

Straits Times 6-25-2000

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

AND

, we would see the destruction of civilisation.

2NC – Uniqueness

The plan breaks from the pragmatic status quo approach, which is keeping the pressure off of Saudi.

Lajeunesse, October 12 (Gabriel Lajeunesse, Huffington Post, “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy” 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gabriel-lajeunesse/arab-spring-foreign-policy_b_1006170.html)

As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

AND

Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

Relations are maintaining some balance, but further democracy efforts could undermine them.

Brazier, 9/27 (James Brazier, Global Insight, “Pakistan Intelligence Officials Talk to Saudi and Chinese Counterparts” 2011, lexis)

Saudi trade relations with China have also blossomed

AND

to a period of greater foreign policy defiance.

U.S. strategy is a balancing act.

Hearst, October 17 (David Hearst, Dawn, “Power struggle and Arab Spring” 2011, http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/17/power-struggle-and-arab-spring.html)

THE drama of the Iranian plot to assassinate

AND

dictators or account for the services they provided.

2NC - Link

Saudi Arabia perceives U.S. support for democracy as an existential threat to the regime – this perception of weakening our ‘special relationship’ causes aggressive posturing towards Iran that escalates to conflict – that’s Escobar.

Saudis sabotage the plan and backlash – they perceive it as a threat to their own regime.

DemDigest June 6, 2011 “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/

With Yemen finely poised between transition and regression

AND

delicate and tortured than elsewhere in the region.

A2 Oil Turn

Doesn’t underpin relations

Abdullatif A. Al-Othman (Executive Director of Saudi Aramco Affairs) November/December 2002 “The Reliable Supplier” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/58444/shibley-telhami-fiona-hill-et-al/does-saudi-arabia-still-matter-differing-perspectives-on-the-kin?page=show

The authors also incorrectly suggest that Saudi Arabia

AND

oils most appropriate for their refinery feedstock needs.

2NC Advantage one – Intelligence

No motivation --

Not visible enough

Rand Corporation 2003 “What is the Threat and What can be Done about it?”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB7565/index1.html)

Despite the ease and implications of a successful

AND

to groups faced with overcoming significant power asymmetries.

Not possible –

Federal preparation

Monke 2006 (Jim Monke, Analyst in Agricultural Policy, Resources, Science, and Industry Division, August 25, 2006, CRS Report, “Agroterrorism: Threats and Preparedness,” online)

Effective detection depends on a heightened sense of

AND

) — both discussed earlier in this  report.

Their research is based on dated data – cooperation is more likely

Simon Dalby (Dept. Of Geography, Carleton University) 2006 "Security and environment linkages revisited" in Globalisation and Environmental Challenges: Reconceptualising Security in the 21st Century, www.ntu.edu.sg/idss/publications/SSIS/SSIS001.pdf)

In parallel with the focus on human security

AND

not have a history of leading to wars.

Other even bigger crises prove resilience.

Mark Skousen. "What have we learned." Forecasts&Strategies. 2 Jun. 2003. http://www.markskousen.com/article.php?id=1096

The second lesson is that the global economy

AND

depression-resistant. Armageddon has again been postpone

Increasing aid empowers AQAP

Frank J. Cilluffo (directs the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University and is a former Special Assistant to the President for Homeland Security) and Clinton Watts (a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI) June 24, 2011 “YEMEN AND AL QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: EXPLOITING A WINDOW OF COUNTERTERRORISM OPPORTUNITY” http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief_yemenaqap.pdf

First, arming, training and assisting Yemeni

AND

the end of U.S. support.

No AQAP takeover – no domestic support

Sarah Phillips (lectures at the Centre for International Security Studies (Sydney University), where she specializes in Yemeni and Middle Eastern politics, and the politics of state-building) February/March 2011 “Al-Qaeda and the Struggle for Yemen” http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:h2MUZsCp214J:sydney.edu.au/arts/ciss/downloads/Phillips_Al-Qaeda_and_the_Struggle_for_Yemen_%2520SURVIVAL.PDF+%22Survival+Al-Qaeda+and+the+Struggle+for+Yemen%22&hl=en&gl=us

Despite the Yemeni regime’s persistent claims to the

AND

it became identified as a victim of disproportionate aggression

1NR

Impacts

Disad is bigger- Warming causes extinction, extend Tickell- And it makes all their impacts inevitable

Becker 2011 (Bill Becker, executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project, January 24, 2011, “Will global warming chill Obamas legacy?,” Thing Progress, google)

Finishing the job in Afghanistan and Iraq,

AND

happens when weather variability and climate change combine.

Outweighs the case- Nuke war doesn’t cause extinction

Nyquist 1999 (J.R. Nyquist, WorldNetDaily contributing editor and author of ‘Origins of the Fourth World War,’ May 20, Antipas, “Is Nuclear War Survivable?”)

The truth is, many prominent physicists have

AND

produce few (if any) fallout casualties.

Warming is inherently most probable

Hanson et al 2007 (J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. KharechA2 , A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4, G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6, A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1, D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4, A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2, M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA 2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA 3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA 7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France 9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA  11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, “Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study,” http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2287/2007/acp-7-2287-2007.html)

These stark conclusions about the threat posed by

AND

face of clear scientific evidence of the danger.

It is TRY OR DIE for payroll tax holiday- Key to prevent quick unraveling of the economy

Zandi 9/9 (Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, September 9, 2011, “An Analysis of the Obama Jobs Plan,” Moody’s Analytics, google)

Given the current political environment, it is

AND

unraveling. Policymakers must work quickly and decisively.

Econ decline turns case—

Makes democratic transitions impossible

Rubin 2011 (Trudy Rubin, April 17, 2011, “Economy key to Egypt, Tunisia in quest for democracy,” Miami Herald,  http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/17/2170819/economy-key-to-egypt-tunisia-in.html#ixzz1VX4SdWu0)

Few of the revolts shaking the Arab world

AND

expectations? And how can the West help?

Rollback and reverses plan’s perception

Myers 10/4 (Steven Myers, “Budget crisis forcing cuts in foreign aid,” NYT, google)

The U.S. budget crisis at

AND

Plan for the Middle East and North Africa."

UQ

No thumpers- they have no ev that links Afghanistan to a spending or democracy assistance battle- it can only cost capital if the issue is in Congress

Drum 2010  (Kevin Drum, Political Blogger, Mother Jones, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner)

Not to pick on Ezra or anything,

AND

Maybe not. But they will be soon.

Will pass- Obama has the upper hand

Youngman 11/10 (Sam Youngman, “White House thinks Obama has regained 'upper hand' with GOP on economy,” http://goo.gl/M7fsc)

President Obama has regained the “upper hand

AND

officials are betting heavily Republicans won’t hold up.

Will pass but bargaining is key

Englund 11/7 (Michael Englund, “U.S. Treasury Receipts Climb Into FY12,” Newstex, Lexis)

The payroll tax cut is removing $5

AND

of both sides -- hopefully in acceptable proportions.

Links

Even if helping Yemen is popular, democracy assistance costs capital

McInerney 2010 (Stephen McInerney, POMED, April 10, 2010, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2011: Democracy, Governance and Human Rights in the Middle East,” Project On Middle East Democracy, online)

While the RGP appears to be an innovative

AND

requested for Yemen, if not exceed it.

Plan costs capital—Lawmakers think it is a concession to authoritarian regimes

McInerney 2009 (Jay McInerney, director of POMED, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2010,” July 2009, POMED, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/fy10-budget-analysis-paper-final.pdf)

Across the Arab world, the budget shifts

AND

.S. ally in a manner rarely seen

in these documents.

Plan gets drawn into spending debate***

Karmi 2011 (Omar Karmi, August 2, 2011, “US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem,” The National, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem)

With the same acrimony it has debated the

AND

Senate, the other chamber of US Congress.

Assistance unpopular—We don’t think they’ve done enough on counterterrorism

Boucek 2010 (Dr. Christopher Boucek, Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “YEMEN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY,” Testimony before the House, February 3, 2010, online)

It is essential that Washington take a holistic

AND

issues that will contribute indirectly to improving domestic security

Governmentality K 1NC

The AFF is an attempt to behead the King, but acknowledges the inseparability of resistance and power- 1AC evidence:

Hamann 2009 (Trent Hamann, Neoliberalism, Governmentality, and Ethics, Foucault Studies, No 6, pp. 37-59, February 2009, http://rauli.cbs.dk/index.php/foucault-studies/article/view/2471/2469)

Whether neoliberalism will ultimately be viewed as having

AND

real differences that make individuals irreducibly individual beings.

This approach makes resistance impossible- it externalizes power, making it a re-constitutive force.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

While Foucault claims that power is "born

AND

to be in the process of perfecting itself.

The foreclosure of resistance reproduces systems of power- makes neoliberalism inevitable.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

This marks an important turning point in Foucault'

AND

a new form of governmental reason: liberalism.

The alternative is to reject governmentality- only a subjectivity-centered conceptualization allows transcendence rather than reproduction.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

In conclusion, then, Foucault's conceptual "

AND

in the constitutive power of social practice.2

A2 permutation

The alternative is mutually exclusive- governmentality replaces juridical power with positive.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

But according to Foucault, political theory has

AND

market. This point will be developed below.

Link/impact—extensions

Governmentality reproduces a ‘top-down’ politics, destroying subjectivity, and perpetuates neoliberalism.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

This literature on governmentality is undoubtedly thought-

AND

and transcendence grounded in the subjectivity of labor.

This conception of power means ONLY neoliberalism can result from the AFF.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

By focusing on the discourses of rule,

AND

active citizens (1996, 59-60).

2NC must read

Their implicit critique of modernity is misguided- the “freedom” of governmentality is just the acceptance of neoliberalism. To go forward we must accept collectivist action and overcome the flaws of modernism the old fashioned way.

Berman, 1983 (Marshall Berman, “All that is solid melts into air: the experience of modernity” p. 34-36)

Just about the only writer of the past

AND

--of tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

The ALT is the only way to solve the case- the retreat from collective action crushes our ability to reform the system or challenge neoliberalism.

Mike, 1996 (St. Lawrence University, “Postmodernism: Boundaryless Self in a Boundaryless World” it.stlawu.edu/~pomo/mike/contents.html)

This leads us to what Scott Lash considers

AND

paralysis and draw the line in the sand.

A2 resistance link turn

Attempts to make the subject distinct from power fail- the AFFs distinctions are re-deployments of constitutive power that prevents resistance.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

Sympathisers of Foucault (e.g.,

AND

; and the abstention from making value judgements.

Neg: Missouri State FG

Round #3 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: UNT CC

Judge: Robinson

Off Case Args:

T – Usfg, democracy assistance

Governmentality K

Politics DA (unspecified)

Case Args:

Neolib Good – poverty, tech, heg

Consequences good

Ontology bad

Block Strategy:

T

K

Case

2nr Strategy:

K

Neg: Missouri State FG

Round # 1 Tournament: Wake

Vs Team: Kansas State MR

Judge: Carly Wunderlich

Off Case Args:

ASPEC

MCC CP

Uniqueness CP – end aid

Black Swan K

Saudi Relations DA

Payroll Tax Politics DA

Case Args:

Defense

Block Strategy:

UQ CP

Saudi DA

Payroll Tax DA

Case

2nr Strategy:

UQ CP

Saudi DA

Case

T-Primary purpose

Our interpretation – a topical plan text must EXPLICITELY limit the MECHANISM of assistance strictly to DIRECT political variables of democratization in order to be labeled ‘democracy assistance’.

That’s key to limits and precision

Agnes Cornell (Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Sweden) 2008 “Does democracy aid promote democracy?” http://uit.no/getfile.php?PageId=1410&FileId=1349

In this paper it is argued that democracy

AND

ending task of so many researchers before me.

[Political training is not democracy assistance- could be any form of politics]

Extra T – lack of explicit limitations on assistance in the plan means their mechanism goes beyond ‘democracy assistance’ – explodes the literature base – generates unpredictable aff ground.

Limits and precision are key internal links to predictability and topic education - any other interpretation is arbitrary - voter for competitive equity.

SCAF backlash

The SCAF will facilitate a peaceful transition now – foreign interference is rejected

Lahlou November 2011 (Alia, “Waging Peace: SCAF Member Defends Transition Rule in Egypt,” Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs,  , accessed 11-9)

"The Egyptian people own their armed forces

AND

the international community must adapt to regional changes.

U.S. democratization efforts ruin relations with the SCAF which are key to military operations in the Middle East

Martini and Taylor 2011 (Jeff, project associate at the RAND Corporation, and Julie, political scientist at the RAND Corporation, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future,” August 25, RAND, Foreign Affairs, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html)

Yet the United States' capacity to advance democratization

AND

the United States can do little to change.

Egypt is a key location for U.S. power projection – loss of bases, flight-rights, and warship transit would be a strategic disaster, embolden Iran, and cause Israel to freak out

Wood 11 (David, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East,” The Huffington Post, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the

AND

. and Egyptian] services will continue.''

Strong power projection and naval capabilities deter every great power war

Conway et al 2007 (James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf)

No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to

AND

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Predictions critique

Adopt the position of a critical intellectual – this debate is about what kind of knowledge we produce as students – the aff relies on a flawed method of causation - if they cannot develop a coherent theory of human interaction to explain their predictions - vote neg on presumption

Steven Bernstein et al (Richard Ned Lebow, Janice Gross Stein, and Steven Weber, University of Toronto, Ohio State, and Berkeley) 2000 “God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World” European Journal of International Relations vol 43 No 6

This vision has been largely lost From the

AND

why things turned out the way they did.

The affirmatives attempt to manipulate the Arab Spring towards ‘stability’ is an artificial suppression of inevitable volatility that causes explosive blowback – flips the aff

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute) and Mark Blyth (Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University) May/June 2011 “The Black Swan of Cairo”

Why is surprise the permanent condition of the

AND

without noise—and no stability without volatility.∂

That takes some time.

India CP

CP Text: The Republic of India should provide substantial political party training for Egypt.

AND, it solves: India provides the best model for a transition in Egypt AND boosts Indian soft power – we are the only ones with a solvency advocate

Chaulia, 10/19 [Sreeram, professor and Vice Dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India, and the first ever B Raman Fellow for Geopolitical Analysis at the Takshashila Institution, “India holds Gandhi card for Tahrir Square,” the Asia Times, October 19, 2011, ]

Post-partition India would have gone down

AND

supplant Bin Laden with Gandhi in Tahrir Square.

Indian soft power checks China’s rise

Sheridan 6 (Greg, foreign editor of The Australian and contributing editor to The National Interest, “East Meets East,” December 2006, Lexis)

What about Indian soft power? Indian soft

AND

, an Asian pole of power countering China.

Unchecked China rise causes world war 3

Mearsheimer 1, Prof of Poli Sci at U of Chicago, Sep/Oct 2001 (Foreign Affairs)

The second scenario would emerge if China's economy

AND

even from eventually becoming a more formidable superpower.

Payroll politics

Payroll tax extension will pass- Obama is key

Lee 11/10 (Carol Lee, “White House to Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut,” WSJ, http://goo.gl/uoAT4)

The White House is gearing up to make

AND

Both expire at the end of the year.

Plan costs capital- Causes huge spending fights in Congress

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

AND

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

All of Obama’s political capital is key

Philly 9/8 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

The solution is to pump more money into

AND

the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

PASS THIS BILL- It’s the key to the economy

Jones 10/20 (Forrest Jones, “Moody’s Zandi: Chance of Recession Stands at 40 Percent,” Money News, google)

The bill, put forth by President Barack

AND

expect them to do it," Zandi says.

Global nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld 2008  (Aaron Friedberg, professor of Politics and International Relations at Princeton, and Gabriel Schoenfeld, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” google)

Then there are the dolorous consequences of a

AND

divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.

Muslim Brotherhood advantage

Muslim Brotherhood victory locks out anti-treaty discourse—responsible leadership pressures.

Brown, 2011 (Dr. Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, Middle East Program, and Nonresident Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Subcommittee on Terrorism, HUMINT, Analysis, and Counterintelligence, “The Muslim Brotherhood” April 13, google)

The Brotherhood’s position on the Egyptian-Israeli

AND

to avoid having to deal with the issue.

Turn—Muslim Brotherhood will moderate Islamic radicalism.

Kramer, 2011 (Sarah Kate Kramer, internally refers to Reza Aslan, assistant professor of creative writing at UC Riverside, the senior fellow at the Orfalae Center for Global & International Studies at UC Santa Barbara and author of How to Win a Cosmic War: God, Globalization, and the End of the War on Terror, WNYC, “Democracy in Egypt Means Engaging Muslim Brotherhood” February 8, google)

Reza Aslan is trying to tamp down American

AND

regard to our mistake with regard to Iran.

No Egypt/Israel war—

Mutual interest

Stratfor 2008 (May 1, 2008, “Egypt, Israel: A New Pipeline and Institutionalizing Camp David,” http://www.stratfor.com/node/115745/analysis/egypt_israel_new_pipeline_and_institutionalizing_camp_david)

Despite its 450,000-strong military

AND

military power — is left to contend with.

Pragmatism outweighs

Byman 2011 (Daniel Byman, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring,” Washington Quarterly, Summer 2011, http://twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Byman.pdf)

Most Egyptian elites recognize this and accept the

AND

tumult overturns all the  certainties of past decades.

Military ties, economic dependence, and tourism prevent war

Byman 2011 (Daniel Byman, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring,” Washington Quarterly, Summer 2011, http://twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Byman.pdf)

To be clear, no Egyptian government is

AND

(IDF) would quickly destroy  Egyptian forces.

Camp David Accords will survive—They’ll explore different parts of it

Naiman 2011 (Robert Naiman, Policy Director, Just Foreign Policy, February 2, 2011, “Democracy in Egypt: The U.S. and Israel Can Adapt and They Will,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/democracy-in-egypt-the-us_b_817398.html)

Egyptian support for the Camp David treaty with

AND

we live and breathe; life goes on.

No impact to Israel/Egypt war—Israel would destroy them quickly

Susser 2011 (Leslie Susser, February 15, 2011, JTA, “With Egypt in turmoil, Israel rethinks readiness for multi-front war,” online)

All this adds up to a military doctrine

AND

quite so easily or with so few casualties.

Specifically the plan will be perceived as too little, too late

Ted Galen Carpenter (vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) February 2011 “What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little” Cato Institutehttp://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780

The situation in the Middle East is vastly

AND

a low-profile role during these turbulent days

Strategic cooperation

India and the U.S. already share values but in practice democracy cooperation will not happen – security concerns overwhelm – this is their author

Twining and Fontaine 2011 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Richard, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, both handled South Asia policy at the State Department, “The Ties that Bind? – U.S.-Indian Values-based Cooperation,” The Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

The president’s remarks constituted perhaps the most prominent

AND

Isn’t that something? Isn’t that something?’’4

The AFF is useless – India and the U.S. will cooperate regardless due to security and economic ties

Dang 2009 (Rohan, pursues law from Symbiosis, Pune, and is an alumnus of the Shri Ram School. Mr. Dang has presented papers at domestic and international legal conferences, “Have India-U.S. Relations Changed Since Obama Came to Power?” Wall Street Journal, November 19, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125861311432655249.html)

Theoretically, the world's richest democracy and the

AND

cumulative wisdom will somehow find the right balance.

Burma won’t proliferate – no evidence that they will, moving towards an open democracy, a desire to avoid conflict, and limited resources to do so

Sethi 10-27 (Manpreet, “Burma’s Nuclear Olive Branch,” Ethnic Nationalities Council, 2011, )

Over the past few years, there’s been

AND

technology and financial resources to do so anyway.

The marine environment is resilient.  Human actions have very small impact.

Easterbrook 1995,  Distinguished Fellow, Fullbright Foundation  (Gregg, A Moment on Earth pg 25) MI

IN THE AFTERMATH OF EVENTS SUCH AS LOVE

AND

of the magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting.

Assign warming zero percent probability – flawed models and predictions

Craig D. Idso (founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) and Sherwood B. Idso (president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) February 2011 “Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future Pursuing the Prudent Path” http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/prudentpath.pdf

As presently constituted, earth’s atmosphere contains just

AND

meet the much greater challenge to which they aspire

Asia energy

Energy war in Asia is unlikely – multiple reasons

Desker 2008 (Barry, Dean, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, “Why War in Asia Remains Unlikely - Barry Desker,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, June 2-4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-desker/)

Nevertheless, the Asia-Pacific region is

AND

embark on a course of self-restraint.

Asian energy interdependence prevents aggression or ambition – this means no war

Xuegang 2007 (Zhang, associate professor in China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), he focuses on Sino-U.S.-ASEAN security and Singaporean, Malaysian and Thailand studies, “Southeast Asia and Energy: Gateway to Stability,” China Security, Vol 3, No 2, pg. 18-19)

Energy interdependence between China and Southeast Asia has

AND

global influence while helping to maintain strategic stability.

Deterrence prevents India/Pakistan conflict

Tepperman 2009 (Jonathan Tepperman, Deputy Editor at Newsweek Magazine and former Deputy Managing Editor of Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2009, Newsweek, September 14, 2009, Lexis Academic)

The record since then shows the same pattern

AND

what they had to do to avoid it.

Their historical examples are exactly why trade won’t collapse

Daniel Ikenson (director of Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies) 2009 “A protectionism fling”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651

A Little Perspective, Please Although some governments

AND

governments attempt to limit choices through policy constraints.

2NC interpretation

Our interp requires that the assistance MECHANISM must be both EXPLICITLY for democracy in the plan text and DIRECTLY tied to a specific political variable EXCLUSIVELY tied to political democracy – this is the most precise interpretation

Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

The aff should be held to the standard of explicitly identifying this – violation presumption should be negative if we win a link to limits - prefer this methodology – it’s the USAID evaluation process

Mohammed Ali Bapir (Doctoral Researcher, Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick) 2010 “Examining the Reasons why it is so difficult to assess the Effectiveness of International Democracy Assistance” http://warwick.academia.edu/MohammedAliBapir/Papers/1045198/Examining_the_Reasons_why_it_is_so_difficult_to_assess_the_Effectiveness_of_International_Democracy_Assistance

Concerning the conceptual ambiguity in assessing international democracy

AND

of effectiveness of democracy assistance a challenging task.

Democracy is positive—secondary or indirect approaches are not topical.

Huber, 8 [Daniela, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf]

What is Democracy Assistance? The

AND

implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

2NC Precision

This is the biggest internal link to topic education

Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)

By the end of the 1990s, the

AND

and in practice, will ultimately be undermined.

Independently turns solvency – imprecise definitions crush political effectiveness

Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)

Conclusion This article has examined the emergence of

AND

likelihood of formulating effective democratic means will remain improbable

This form of precision is a pre-requisite to effective communication – if we win a link it’s a knowledge production DA to their interpretation

Harry Pregerson (US Judge for the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit) 2006 “ARMANDO NAVARRO-LOPEZ, Petitioner, v. ALBERTO R. GONZALES, Attorney General, Respondent.  No. 04-70345  UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT  503 F.3d 1063; 2007 U.S. App. LEXIS 22312, 11/19, lexis

Expanding these categories beyond recognition at the expense

AND

of respect for the law that inevitably results.

2NC Limits

Depth outweighs breadth – studies overwhelmingly vote neg – key to education

TPC (Texas Panhandle P-16 Council, Texas-based group of teachers and educators from across the state) 2010 “Breadth vs. Depth of High School Curriculum Content” http://www.panhandlep-16.net/users/0001/docs/Position%20Paper2.pdf

Less breadth and more depth in curriculum better

AND

depth is associated with improvements in later performance”.

We can quantify it – literally doubles the educational benefit

Arrington 2009 (Rebecca, UVA Today, “Study Finds That Students Benefit From Depth, Rather Than Breadth, in High School Science Courses” March 4)

A recent study reports that high school students

AND

those in courses that touched on every major topic

Generous limits ensure agency name swapping – snowballs to allow for ANY form of assistance to be topical

Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)

Establishing the definitional clarity of democracy assistance is

AND

regarding the futility of inter-state conflict.

Impacts

Strong relations with the SCAF are key to fight terrorism

Rieff 2011 (David, Contributing Editor-The New Republic, “The Failure of U.S. Aid in Egypt,” February 4, http://www.tnr.com/print/article/world/82812/us-aid-egypt-protest-democracy)

President Mubarak and military leaders view our military

AND

efforts thus far have met with limited success.

Extinction

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

AND

would probably still meet with a devastating response.

Only the SCAF can quell risks of a conflict with Israel- turns the case

Wisner 9-13 (Frank G., retired career diplomat, sent message from Obama for Mubarak to step down. INTERVIEWED BY: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, “Repairing the Egypt-Israel Breach ,” CFR, 2011, )

Egyptian anger against Israel boiled over in a

AND

they will do their best to maintain it.

The SCAF will eliminate groups who accept U.S. democracy assistance – guts solvency and turns their Iran argument

Stephen McIerney 9-28, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, September 28, 2011, “SCAF’s Assault on Egypt’s Civil Society,” online: http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/28/scaf_s_assault_on_egypt_s_civil_society

In recent months, the SCAF has dramatically

AND

ways not even dared during Mubarak's despotic rule.

UQ

The SCAF is maintaining control now with efforts towards a peaceful transition and a focus exists on U.S.—SCAF cooperation – plan disrupts this – SCAF is focusing on independent policies

Sharp 9-21 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Egypt in Transition,” The Congressional Research Service, 2011, , accessed 11-10)

While many Americans and media outlets have embraced

AND

alliances with Arab countries as well as Israel.

The SCAF is in control and is sustaining public support – weariness of instability ensures power

El Amrani 10-19 (Issandr, “One More Thing About Maspero,” Arabist, 2011, http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/10/19/one-more-thing-about-maspero.html)

 So Maspero cristallized the rejection

AND

with things so that it can be disbanded.

The U.S. and the SCAF are currently on good terms

Stacher 10-11, (Joshua, assistant Professor of Political Science in the Department of Political Science at Kent State University, October 11, 2011, “Blame the SCAF for Egypt's problems,” online: http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/11/blame_the_scaf_for_egypts_problems)

The SCAF and its powerful foreign allies seem

AND

during his visit to Cairo on October 4.

The SCAF is committed to an independent transition in Egypt

Xinhua News Service 10-14 (“Egypt's armed forces warn against any attempt to break stability,” 2011, , accessed 11-9)

Egyptian citizens should be aware of any attempts

AND

of Egypt and create chaos, he added.

SCAF O/W MB

Bad relations with the SCAF turn the AFF – only good relations check Muslim Brotherhood’s radicalism

Tadros 10-18, (Samuel, Research Fellow at the Hudson Institute, “Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood After the Revolution,” Hudson Institute, 2011, )

The military's short term goals have suited the

AND

day and leave those men to their fate.

Only the SCAF can keep the Muslim Brotherhood in check – liberal groups are too weak

Kurtz 2011 (Stanley Kurtz is a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center graduated from Haverford College and holds a Ph.D. in social anthropology from Harvard University. "Inside Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood" September 6, www.nationalreview.com/corner/276382/inside-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-stanley-kurtz#)

Trager wants the United States to help Egypt’s

AND

the military, with the West the loser.

The SCAF is key to moderate the MB – the plan disrupts current, fragile cooperation

Almeida 10-12 (Manuel, PhD candidate at the Department of International Relations of the London School of Economics and Political Science, “The Brothers and the Generals,” The Majalla, 2011, )

Much of the future political stability of the

AND

of being an obstacle to the democratic revolution.

A break in relations with Cairo pits Turkey, Egypt, and Iran all against the United States

Schenker 9-15 (David, Aufizen fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy “Washington’s Limited Influence in Egypt,” 2011,  15 www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html?nopager=1)

In an effort to reinvigorate Egypt’s regional standing

AND

would be at odds with the United States.

Extra

The SCAF will attack Coptic Christians

Trager 10-11, (Eric, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, “Action by Egypt's Military Rulers against Copts Endangers Transition”, The Washington Institute, 2011, )

The use of violence by Egypt's military rulers

AND

government-sponsored pogroms against Egypt's Coptic Christians.

Uptick in Muslim-Christian violence splits Egypt – ruins economy, causes U.S. military intervention, and causes desertification

Zunger 2011 (Yonatan, principal engineer at Google and Chief Architect for Social, was at Stanford’s , extensive research of history, “The potentially bad news from Egypt,” February 2, http://yonatanzunger.com/2011/02/02/the-potentially-bad-news-from-egypt/)

If short-term but intense violence were

AND

to even worse problems in the long term.

Desertification leads to extinction – studies prove the causality between desertification and conflict – this is an acute and increasing threat in North Africa

UNCCD 2003 (“UNCCD confirms NATO concern with desertification as a threat to security,” United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, December 2003, , accessed 11-11)

"It is widely recognized that environmental degradation

AND

root causes of internal strife and public insecurity.

Text: The United States Federal Government should propose to the Republic of Turkey the establishment of an ongoing high-level diplomatic commission to coordinate policy towards Bahrain through substantially increasing its democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material support to civil society organizations in Bahrain. The United States Federal Government should inform the Republic of Turkey of its intention to take a secondary support role. The United States Secretary of State should implement the commission’s recommendations.

US-Turkey forum solves and is key to maturation of strategic partnership

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

The United States should propose to Turkey the

AND

together to meet current and future security challenges.

CP solves better, only Turkey has credibility in the Middle East- Secondary role proves the CP is plan-minus

Ketterer 2010 (James Ketterer, April 27, 2010, “Turkish Foreign Policy: Old and New,” Foreign Policy Association, http://goo.gl/i18Le)

That new role also presents opportunities for the

AND

so the regional development calculus will change accordingly.

CP alone key- Integrating Turkish leadership into coordinated Arab Spring policy key to partnership and prevents Turkish adventurism

Ülgen 2011 (Sinan Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, “From Inspiration to Aspiration,” http://goo.gl/93UXg)

Turkey’s Western orientation is also in doubt as

AND

in the region and a lasting success story.

Strategic partnership solves global instability, terrorism, prolif, and disease

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

The history of the U.S.-

AND

the challenges of the twenty-first century.

A2 Cred Solvency Deficit

CP solves credibility better- Coordinating regional donors is a bigger internal link, lead and funding aren’t key- Plan causes backlash that turns the case

Hadley 2011 (Stephen Hadley, Senior Advisor at US Institute for Peace, August 18, 2011)

We are about to miss a historic opportunity

AND

.S. government needs to organize itself.

Working through Turkey solves best- Unilateral action causes backlash

Paul and Seyrek 2011 (Amanda Paul, Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre, and Demir Murat Seyrek, independent expert and PhD candidate at the Catholic University of Leuven, July 15, 2011, “Turkish foreign policy and the Arab Spring,” European Policy Centre, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_1322_turkish_foreign_policy_and_the_arab_spring.pdf)

The Arab Spring in particular has vaulted Turkey

AND

Ashton in regular contact with Foreign Minister Davutoğlu.

Partnership NB Impact 2NC

Partnership key to Middle East stability- Drift flips the case

Boyer and Katulis 2008 (Spencer P. Boyer and Brian Katulis, December 2008, “The Neglected Alliance,” Center for American Progress, http://goo.gl/uZeif)

While security cooperation—the cornerstone of the

AND

on the other important bilateral tasks before them.

Turkish leadership on the Arab Spring independently solves extinction

Falk 2011, (Richard Falk, former professor of Internaitonal Relations at Princeton, May 20, 2011, “Global Leadership: American Retreat, BRIC Ambivalence, and Turkey’s Rise,” Foreign Policy Journal, google)

The personal achievements of Davutoglu’s diplomacy have been

AND

the peoples of the region and the world.

Partnership NB Impact 2NC- Laundry List Ext

Disease

Steinbruner 1998 (John D Steinbruner, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy)

It is a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a

AND

security problem for the species as a whole.

A2 Do Both

Perm fails- Unilateral action makes Turkey a counterweight

Outzen 2011 (Eva Outzen, rapporteur for a conference, summary of remarks made by Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program, June 11, 2011, “The AKP's Turkey: Asset or Liability for the United States?,” http://goo.gl/1dGya)

During the past decade of AKP rule,

AND

individual U.S. or EU sanctions.

Turkey wants veto power on US Arab Spring policy

Nisman 2011 (Daniel Nisman, October 10, 2011, “Erdogan serious when it comes to regional leadership,” Jerusalem Post, http://goo.gl/aX5pi)

In addition, Turkey has stepped up its

AND

and all action taking place within its realm.

Payroll tax holiday extension now- Conference committee will succeed- Obama empirically forces compromise

Chaddock 12/28 (Gail Chaddock, “Handling of payroll tax hurts Congress' approval rating,” CSM, http://goo.gl/n7C61)

A key sticking point is how to pay

AND

faith, this can be resolved rather easily.”

Plan costs political capital- Causes huge spending fights

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

AND

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

All of Obama’s political capital is key to final deal- Key to negotiating funding offsets

Philly 2011 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

The solution is to pump more money into

AND

the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

Extension key to prevent double dip, consumer spending key- Link independently collapses consumer confidence

Hill 12/28 (Patrice Hill, Washington Times, “Economists fear withdrawal symptoms if payroll-tax cut vanishes,” http://goo.gl/Uxdo2)

But the added spending power and support for

AND

essential matters affecting the economy, he said.

Global nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld 2008  (Aaron Friedberg, professor of Politics and International Relations at Princeton, and Gabriel Schoenfeld, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” google)

Then there are the dolorous consequences of a

AND

divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.

And, they’ve conceded that extending the tax holiday is key to consumer confidence- Key to trust in govt focusing on recovery- Independently tanks the economy

Yuma Sun 1/1 (“Confidence of consumers good news for nation,” http://goo.gl/mSfsr)

Economists have been saying for a long time

AND

the worst of the economic downturn behind us.

Econ decline turns case-

Bigger internal link to the case- Backsliding, regional prolif and diminished US military presence in the Middle East

Burrows and Harris 2009 (Mathew J. Burrows, counselor in the National Intelligence Council, PhD in European History from Cambridge University, and Jennifer Harris, a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, April 2009 “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf)

Of course, the report encompasses more than

AND

a more dog-eat-dog world.

Makes democratic transitions impossible

Rubin 2011 (Trudy Rubin, April 17, 2011, “Economy key to Egypt, Tunisia in quest for democracy,” Miami Herald,  http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/17/2170819/economy-key-to-egypt-tunisia-in.html#ixzz1VX4SdWu0)

Few of the revolts shaking the Arab world

AND

expectations? And how can the West help?

Rollback and reverses plan’s perception

Myers 10/4 (Steven Myers, “Budget crisis forcing cuts in foreign aid,” NYT, google)

The U.S. budget crisis at

AND

Plan for the Middle East and North Africa."

1NR- Turns Case/Impacts

The Link turns the case- First- Credibility

Adesnik and McFaul 2006 (David Adesnik, member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Michael McFaul is the Helen and Peter Bing, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law at Stanford University; and a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington Quarterly, Spring)

Second, words mattered, especially when they

AND

superiors’ credibility, including that of the president.

Second- Rollback

Czaplinska 2007 (Agata Czaplińska, Development Cooperation Department Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2-2007 google)

However, the challenge that the donor community

AND

a genuine identification with its ends and means.

UQ

Obama will get payroll tax extension- Political high ground

Straw 12/24 (Joseph Straw, “Payroll tax extension is now law,” New York Daily News, Lexis)

A jubilant President Obama finally signed a stopgap

AND

benefit in fighting for the popular tax cut.

Links

Public support key to payroll tax- Obama is harnessing it now

Klein 12/21 (Kent Klein, “Obama Urges Lawmakers to End Tax Standoff,” VOA News, http://goo.gl/lt6vN)

Mr. Obama’s public opinion ratings, which

AND

in payments for health care for the elderly.

Foreign aid massively unpopular with the public- Trades off with domestic focus – That’s Wallin, above

Wallin 2011 (Matthew Wallin, October 20, 2011, “Foreign aid shouldn’t be first thing on the chopping block,” The Hill, http://goo.gl/hy1Ci)

In this fiscal climate, recent debates have

AND

is in our national interest to do so.

GOP infighting key to Obama’s agenda, gives him the upper hand- Plan unites GOP against Obama

Shear 12/20 (Michael Shear, “Is Republican Infighting Helping Obama?,” New York Times, http://goo.gl/CmiZQ)

Has Republican squabbling given President Obama a chance

AND

a better job of protecting the middle class.

Text: The United States Federal Government should propose to the Republic of Turkey the establishment of an ongoing high-level diplomatic commission to coordinate policy towards Bahrain through substantially increasing its democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material support to civil society organizations in Bahrain. The United States Federal Government should inform the Republic of Turkey of its intention to take a secondary support role. The United States Secretary of State should implement the commission’s recommendations.

US-Turkey forum solves and is key to maturation of strategic partnership

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

The United States should propose to Turkey the

AND

together to meet current and future security challenges.

CP solves better, only Turkey has credibility in the Middle East- Secondary role proves the CP is plan-minus

Ketterer 2010 (James Ketterer, April 27, 2010, “Turkish Foreign Policy: Old and New,” Foreign Policy Association, http://goo.gl/i18Le)

That new role also presents opportunities for the

AND

so the regional development calculus will change accordingly.

CP alone key- Integrating Turkish leadership into coordinated Arab Spring policy key to partnership and prevents Turkish adventurism

Ülgen 2011 (Sinan Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, “From Inspiration to Aspiration,” http://goo.gl/93UXg)

Turkey’s Western orientation is also in doubt as

AND

in the region and a lasting success story.

Strategic partnership solves global instability, terrorism, prolif, and disease

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

The history of the U.S.-

AND

the challenges of the twenty-first century.

A2 Cred Solvency Deficit

CP solves credibility better- Coordinating regional donors is a bigger internal link, lead and funding aren’t key- Plan causes backlash that turns the case

Hadley 2011 (Stephen Hadley, Senior Advisor at US Institute for Peace, August 18, 2011)

We are about to miss a historic opportunity

AND

.S. government needs to organize itself.

Working through Turkey solves best- Unilateral action causes backlash

Paul and Seyrek 2011 (Amanda Paul, Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre, and Demir Murat Seyrek, independent expert and PhD candidate at the Catholic University of Leuven, July 15, 2011, “Turkish foreign policy and the Arab Spring,” European Policy Centre, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_1322_turkish_foreign_policy_and_the_arab_spring.pdf)

The Arab Spring in particular has vaulted Turkey

AND

Ashton in regular contact with Foreign Minister Davutoğlu.

Partnership NB Impact 2NC

US-Turkey partnership is necessary to solve multiple extinction threats- Aligning interests now is key to prevent growing Turkish unilateralism that guts the relationship and causes regional instability

Partnership key to Middle East stability- Drift flips the case

Boyer and Katulis 2008 (Spencer P. Boyer and Brian Katulis, December 2008, “The Neglected Alliance,” Center for American Progress, http://goo.gl/uZeif)

While security cooperation—the cornerstone of the

AND

on the other important bilateral tasks before them.

Turkish leadership on the Arab Spring independently solves extinction

Falk 2011, (Richard Falk, former professor of Internaitonal Relations at Princeton, May 20, 2011, “Global Leadership: American Retreat, BRIC Ambivalence, and Turkey’s Rise,” Foreign Policy Journal, google)

The personal achievements of Davutoglu’s diplomacy have been

AND

the peoples of the region and the world.

Partnership NB Impact 2NC- Laundry List Ext

Disease

Steinbruner 1998 (John D Steinbruner, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy)

It is a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a

AND

security problem for the species as a whole.

A2 Do Both

Perm fails- Unilateral action makes Turkey a counterweight

Outzen 2011 (Eva Outzen, rapporteur for a conference, summary of remarks made by Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program, June 11, 2011, “The AKP's Turkey: Asset or Liability for the United States?,” http://goo.gl/1dGya)

During the past decade of AKP rule,

AND

individual U.S. or EU sanctions.

Turkey wants veto power on US Arab Spring policy

Nisman 2011 (Daniel Nisman, October 10, 2011, “Erdogan serious when it comes to regional leadership,” Jerusalem Post, http://goo.gl/aX5pi)

In addition, Turkey has stepped up its

AND

and all action taking place within its realm.