STABILITY 1AC
Advantage 1 is Stability
Continued regional subversion key to Iran’s influence- they are quelling protests in Syria to maintain power
By JOHN BOLTON APRIL 15, 2011 “Iranian Winter Could Chill the Arab Spring” WSJ, Online
Since the "Arab Spring" began four
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and Egypt, sowing trouble in both places.
US should provide support- keeps protests peaceful, key to success
Radwan Ziadeh is a former Reagan-Fascell fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy. June 8, 2011 DemDigest Online ‘Democracies must support ‘the most liberal and Western-friendly’ of Arab Spring uprisings”
The democratic West has provided substantial assistance to
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searching for friends who might someday become allies.
US opposition assistance is key to prevent crackdowns and sectarian violence
Posted By John Hannah Wednesday, May 11, 2011 “Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster” Foreign Policy Magazine, Online
As proved tragically the case with Iran in
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, we must, try to do better.
That sectarian conflict spills over- Iran’s place means great power escalation is likely
By VALI NASR, professor at Tufts University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly” Published: August 27, 2011
Syria today stands at the edge of such
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Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.
The impact is Great Power War in the middle east-
That’s inevitable in the squo- Iran’s rise and U.S. disengagement causes multiple scenarios for war
by Herbert I. London president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East” June 28, 2010 Hudson Online
The coming storm in the Middle East is
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in its veracity -- a truly bad sign.
This is most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”
The basis of the argument that escalation is
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of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.
Russia 1AC
Advantage 2 is Russia
A deal is on the table now for Iskander scud missiles and the – the U.S. and Israel won’t be able to stop it
“Syria may buy more Russian air defense systems” The Turkish Weekly, Online Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Syria has shown interest in buying a whole
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Tehran and the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime.
Russia sells a ton of arms to Assad- regime change removes them of their prime customer and the port in Tartus
By Nicholas Blanford September 21, 2011 “Russia banks on Assad’s survival as billions in arms deals hang in balance” The Daily Star
Yet Russia holds a contrary view from the
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overthrown or the country descends into violent chaos.
The first impact is Golan:
That causes Syrian aggression in the Heights
Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia Kevin O’Flynn 2008 08 20 Times UK Online
Russia has wooed Syria, internationally isolated and
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now I think no one thinks that way.”
Causes multiple scenarios for Syria-Israel war with Iran backup
by Martin Sieff Washington (UPI) Oct 3, 2008 “Russia Eyes New Customers For Iskander E Missile”
The Iskander is the ideal weapon to use
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defense systems that nations put their trust in.
Syria would use CBWs
“Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran” By Jerome R. Corsi March 05, 2007
Bellamy-Decker currently directs the Public Health
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. I think it is a real threat."
Extinction
Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001, Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?
There are, however, two technologies currently
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in question when and if this is achieved.
Scenario 2 is relations
Arms sales cause Russia to be more aggressive against the West- relations would collapse
Stratfor “Russia: Syrian Missile Sale as Litmus Test” January 18, 2005
Russia is considering selling Syria several different missile
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in the FSU — in a major way.
U.S. Russian tensions spill over globally and risk major power wars
CFR Task Force 2006 [Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force for Russia, Chaired by John Edwards and Jack Kemp, “RUSSIA’S WRONG DIRECTION: WHAT THE UNITED STATES CAN AND SHOULD DO,” http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Russia_TaskForce.pdf]
Over time, accumulating disagreements between Russia and
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West or East—can affect the outcome.
A U.S.-Russian nuclear war is the ONLY scenario for extinction – other nuclear wars won’t cause it
Nick Bostrom, Ph.D. and Professor of Philosophy at Oxford University, March 2002, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards
A much greater existential risk emerged with the
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that we will encounter in the 21st century.
Scenario 3 is leadership
Russia is using the Syrian bases as pawns for their anti-American agenda
“Russia seeks its place in the sun” Simon Tisdall The Guardian Online, Thursday 16 August 2007
A brief by Stratfor.com, a
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bid to challenge US regional and global leadership.
Russia can’t compete with the U.S. if it loses arms sales
Ariel Cohen May 2, 2011 “Russia Fighting to Save Arms Sales to the Middle East” Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies Heritage Blogs, Online
Ambitious efforts to modernize Russia’s defense and industrial
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and/or President Bashar Assad be replaced.
US hegemony is key to solve multiple hotspots that escalate to global war
Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136
The jostling for status and influence among
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to draw the United States back in again.
Scenario 4 is Tartus
Russia will use the Tartus port to challenge U.S. heg and dominate the Central Asian energy market
Ed Blanche "The Russians are coming". Middle East, The. FindArticles.com. 08 Nov, 2011.
In the eastern Mediterranean, Moscow's Itar-
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so far they are seeking to reactivate it.
Russian domination of Central Asian energy leads to conflict using WMD
Ariel Cohen, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, 1/25/1996, Heritage Foundation Reports
Much is at stake in Eurasia for the
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of Eurasian energy resources on an equal footing.
PLAN
The United States federal government should provide democracy assistance for democratic political organizations that oppose the government of Bashar al-Assad.
SOLVENCY
Crackdowns mean the regime is unsustainable- aiding the opposition is key to a peaceful transition- the longer it takes, the more violence occurs
Amir Taheri writes for the NY Post and the Wall Street Journal. November 1, 2011 “Syria: The West can Shorten Syrian Regime's Deadly Campaign” Family Security Matters, Online
When they started protest marches, Syrians were
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a century to evaporate in a few days.
U.S. is key- training and rule of law assistance
Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle With Syria. May 26th, 2011 “Washington should plan for a post assad Syria”
As the United States works to push Assad
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of the country over the Web each day.
Shortening the collapse is key to prevent Russian engagement with the opposition
Itar-Tass 29/06/2011 RUSSIAN PRESS REVIEW “Syria’s opposition welcomed in Moscow” Russian news agency, Online
Bashar Assad’s political opponents came to Moscow to
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to support the resolution, the Vedomosti says.
Collapse is inevitable- assistance is key to peel away business and military support – without the aff we risk intervention
Mona Yacoubian is a senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Wednesday, October 5, 2011 “Saving Syria from civil war”
As Syria's violence deepens, pressure for international
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key actors' strategic interests away from the regime.
Western assistance is key- makes a strategy that foregoes military options
Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009. “Preventing Civil War in Syria” 8-2-11
Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests that have
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through whatever intelligence or military channels are available.
Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. October 6, 2011 “Democracy promotion – a geostrategic contest” Dem Digest, Online
Finally, we cannot outsource democracy promotion to
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the potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.
Military defections make assad collapse inevitable
Economist 10-29 (“Cracks in the army Defections from Bashar Assad’s armed forces are growing” Oct 29th 2011 | BEIRUT from the print edition, The Economist, http://www.economist.com/node/21534827)
THE glue and the guts of President Bashar
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a televised retraction of his previous rebellious statements.
Assad will collapse- no regional support- allows the U.S. to fill in
Wall Street 11-1 (REVIEW & OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 1, 2011 “Turkey Turns on Assad,” Wall Street Journal, Online.)
President Obama has been reluctant to call for
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oust Iran's terrorist-supporting ally in Damascus.
