Neg v. Bahrain

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: Harvard DiTa | Judge: Quigley
  
  

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• Korus Politics
  TAA will pass now, KORUS will follow—Cloture on Monday—Obama key
  Ryan 9/16 (Josiah Ryan, “Cloture vote scheduled on Trade Adjustment Assistance,” The Hill, google)
  The Senate is AND  made it a top priority.

  Plan costs capital—Causes huge fights in Congress
  Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)
  The Obama administration's AND  in foreign countries."
  Capital key to TAA
  Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer, September 2, 2011, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
  In addition to the challenge AND  without TAA," said Trumka.
  KORUS key to the alliance—Now key
  Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee Chi-dong, August 30, 2011, “Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS,” Yonhap News, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)
  A collapse in the United AND "institutionalize its economic presence in East Asia," it added.
  Global nuclear war
  Monthly Review 1997 (Ogura, Toshimaru; Oh, Ingyu, “Nuclear clouds over the Korean peninsula and Japan” April 1, lexis)
  North Korea, South Korea, AND  threaten to escalate into a global conflagration.
  Extinction
  Hayes 2010 (Peter and Michael Hayes Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute and Green, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia” google)
  The consequences of failing to address the AND  consideration from the international community.
  CP
  The European Union should substantially expand its support for groups in Bahrain to facilitate broader distribution of access to political benefits, this should include attempts to negotiate with the United States to diffuse benefits of their military presence.
  EU democracy assistance to Bahrain solves – key to EU soft power
  E. A. Fakhro (Master of Law Student in International Human Rights Law at Harvard Law School and LLM from Queen Mary College, University of London) 2009 “The European Union and Islam: Democracy Promotion in Bahrain and the Arab World” http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Fakhro_low_2.pdf
  Any entity that seeks to promote AND  in promoting democracy and democratic values in the Middle East, and ultimately establish its presence as a long-term ally and partner of the Arab world.
   
  Perception of US involvement causes backlash that turns solvency – EU action avoids it
  Kristina Kausch (a researcher at FRIDE, European think tank for global action. Prior to joining FRIDE in 2004, she worked for the German Technical Cooperation agency (GTZ) on programmes of democratic governance and institution-building) May 2010 “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt” Online
  Often, impact AND  their donor and its agenda

  Kritik
  1NC
  ‘Democracy assistance’ is a hegemonic neoliberal strategy that masks oppression and violence – turns the aff
  Gerald Sussman (Professor of Urban Studies and Planning and Speech Communication at Portland State University) 2006 “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 7 http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe
  U.S. interventionism, except AND  expressions of neocolonial hegemony.
  Neoliberalism makes multiple scenarios for extinction inevitable
  Judith Deutsch (president, Science for Peace. Member of Canadian psychoanalytic society) July/September 2009 “Pestilence, Famine, War, Neoliberalism, and Premature Deaths” Peace Magazine
  Worse still, many commentators suggest AND and thinly disguised reliance on threatened use.

  The alternative is vote negative – This form of rejection is critical to opening space for subaltern voices to speak.  That’s key to challenge neoliberal corporate domination – this is a pre-requisite to any productive ‘democracy assistance’ policy
  Mohan J. Dutta (Professor of Communication at Purdue University, Senior Editor of the journal Health Communication and sits on the editorial board of seven journals. He is the Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education in the College of Liberal Arts at Purdue University) 2005 “Civil Society and Public Relations: Not So Civil After All” Journal of Public Relations Research Vol. 17 No. 3 EBSCO
  The examples of the Philippines AND  actively participates in resistance against acts of marginalization and silencing.

  2NC
  Debates about democracy should be about what kinds of knowledge we as students and professors choose to produce in these rooms
  Henry A. Giroux (the Global TV Network Chair Professorship at McMaster University in the English and Cultural Studies Department) Fall 2006 “Higher Education Under Siege: Implications for Public Intellectuals” http://www.nea.org/assets/img/PubThoughtAndAction/TAA_06_08.pdf
  This politically charged notion AND of war or markets as the measure of democracy

  Sole focus on policy outcomes masks our personal complicity with discourses that create violence – this is the root cause of war
  Susanne Kappeler (Associate Professor at Al-Akhawayn University) 1995 The Will to Violence: The Politics of Personal Behaviour, pg. 75-76
  War does not suddenly break out in AND  and the values of war and violence.

  Discourse advancing neoliberal democracy promotes a flawed epistemology that artificially creates its own truths – the logic of their advantages flawed and distorted by corporate elite
  Bryn Hughes (Project Manager at the Institute for Social Science Research) 2005 “The ‘Fundamental’ Threat of (Neo)Liberal Democracy: An Unlikely Source of Legitimation for Political Violence” Dialogue Vol 3, No. 2 http://www.polsis.uq.edu.au/dialogue/3-2-4.pdf
  Furthermore, it becomes AND  a clear illustration of these pronouncements.
  Specifically, the democracy assistance literature base comes from a position of privilege that masks neoliberal domination – be skeptical of their truth claims
  Jonah Gindin (Canadian Journalist, writer for the Monthly Review) June 2005 “The Battle for Global Civil Society” http://www.iefd.org/articles/global_civil_society.php
  You ask me if academics AND  of civilizational proportions we face in 2005
  Neoliberalism is the root cause of the conditions for instability in Bahrain – only the alt solves
  Marc Owen Jones (graduate research assistant at Leicester University, specializing in Social Media in Bahrain.  Journalist in Bahrain) March 2011 “Sexing up a City: Neoliberalism, Public Space and Protest in Bahrain” http://www.marcowenjones.byethost2.com/?p=107
  Rising unemployment, poverty, and a steady AND groups and depriving them of their right to the city.
  Democracy assistance is turned into a neoliberal tool that perpetuates a corrupt Western cultural model that locks in elitist policymaking – independently turns the aff
  Marius I. Tatar (Sociology Department at University of Bucharest and assistant professor in Political Science at University of Oradea, Romania) July/August 2008 “The Impact of International Assistance on the Romanian Advocacy NGOs” in “Changing Europe Summer School III
  Central and Eastern Europe in a Globalized World”  http://www.changing-europe.org/download/Summer_School_2008/Tatar.pdf
  Democracy assistance played an important AND  values necessary for the successful consolidation of democracy.
  Neoliberalism wont overwhelm the alt – Neoliberalism is fading – now is key
  Immanuel Wallerstein (Professor Emeritus of Sociology, Binghamton University, Senior Research Scholar, Yale University) June 4, 2011 “When You Say T.I.N.A., I say T.A.T.A.: Immanuel Wallerstein on Neo-Liberalism Today” Interview Transcribed by Jordan Foley, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxXZ81irfbI
  Martinez: there is another political AND forces that are also fairly strong and fighting them.

  A2 China Add-on
  Chinese leadership wouldn’t risk war
  Ross 2009 (Robert S. Ross is Professor of Political Science at Boston College and Associate of the John King Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University, September 2009 “Myth The Great Debate” http://nationalinterest.org/greatdebate/dragons/myth-3819)
  Professor Friedberg's AND  promote U.S.-China cooperation.
  Interdependence
  Zhou 2008 (Xinwu Zhou. Economic Interdependence and Peaceful Power Transition. Paper Prepared for the 66th Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conferance. April 3-6, 2008. Online.)
  Next, the thesis applies the AND another are less likely to use military force to solve their disputes. 

  Stability Adv
  Democracy assistance to Bahrain would backfire – intervention would fail and risk calculus ensures hostile relations with the U.S.
  George Friedman, 5-24-2011, is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR, Stratfor, “Obama and the Arab Spring,” http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110523-obama-and-arab-spring
  Then, there are revolutions that genuinely represent AND  slaughter his enemies just like his father did.
  Iranian Heg is a joke – they have no military and would be crushed in any escalation
  Ken Katzman March 22 2007 Congressional Research Service, Iraq, Iran, Israel and the eclipse of U.S. influence: what role for America now?; United States. Middle East Policy Council conference, Middle East Policy
  Iranian leaders might not want to hear AND limited than is commonly portrayed.
  No impact to oil shocks – Multiple checks
  -Cartel Cheating
  -Private Reserves
  -Government reserves
  -Pipeline re-routing
  -Ship re-routing
  Eugene Gholz (assistant professor of public affairs at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas) and Daryl G. Press (associate professor of government at Dartmouth College) August 2010 “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest” Security Studies, Vol 19, Issue 3
  Each day, twenty-four million barrels of crude are pumped from the Persian Gulf region, most of which are loaded onto supertankers to feed refineries around the world. 8 AND : tankers re-route and pipelines max-out, getting oil back on the market

  Fifth Fleet push 1NC
  1NC
  Bahrain holds no strategic military interest to the U.S. – we can project our deterrence in the Middle East effectively without them.
  Kenneth M. Pollack, Jul./Aug. 2003, he was Director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, he also spent seven years in the CIA as a Persian Gulf military analyst, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82 No. 4, “Securing the Gulf,” JSTOR
  THE MOST CONSERVATIVE AND Garcia, in the Indian Ocean.
  U.S.’s push to seek reconciliation in Bahrain ensures no Fifth Fleet move.
  Samuel Haas, 7-21-2011, reporter, Huffington Post, “Navy Staying in Bahrain, State Department says,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/21/navy-bahrain-state-department_n_906193.html
  American officials are denying press AND ” the State Department official said.
  U.S. activity in Iran’s sphere of influence causes war
  Layne, 7, Christopher Layne (Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University) 2007 “American Empire: A Debate” p 76-7
  Iran Because of the strategy of AND  these assumptions are correct.

  2NC
  Reliance on conventional war doctrine is inherently escalatory- huge incentives for adversaries to escalate
  Kier Lieber Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.  and Daryl Press  is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and Coordinator of the War and Peace Studies Program at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding The Nukes We Need Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Nov/Dec 2009, Vol. 88, Issue 6 EBSCO
  Such escalatory strategies AND  same ones most likely to trigger nuclear escalation.

  Empirically proven – heg doesn’t solve war
  Christopher J. Fettweis (Professor of national security affairs @ U.S. Naval War College) 2010 “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2 April 2010 , pages 59 – 82
  One potential explanation for AND  expenditure are unrelated.
  International system resilient – no conflict
  Christopher Preble (director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) August 2010 “U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?” http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
  Most in Washington still AND fly-over country pick up the tab.
  No credible threats now
  Doug Bandow (senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former special assistant to President Reagan) January 2010 “Military Spending — For What?” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11143
  The United States dominates AND  military — one well able to defend Americans.

  
  
  

Saudi DA Cites Kent Rd 1

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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• Relations are a balancing act, but further democratic-push efforts could undermine them.
  Brazier, 9/27 (James Brazier, Global Insight, “Pakistan Intelligence Officials Talk to Saudi and Chinese Counterparts” 2011, lexis)
  Saudi trade relations with China AND foreign policy defiance.

  UN vote wont collapse relations – only the aff does
  Paul Mutter (contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and The Arabist ) June 28, 2011 “THE U.S.-SAUDI “SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP” AND THE ARAB SPRING”, http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/6/28/the-us-saudi-special-relationship-and-the-arab-spring.html)
  The “Arab Spring” is clearly AND upsetting the Persian Gulf over the Palestinians.

  No MENA democracy aid now – if there is its small and sluggish now
  David Rosenberg (Columnist for the Jerusalem Post) September 13, 2011 “Doubts surround aid to Arab Spring countries” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=237759&R=R3
  Urgently needed funds haven't AND  Financial Times reported on September 7.

  Even if they win this argument we still access our DA – Pre-emption, lashout, and internal instability are all independent of US relations – short-term reactions outweigh
  Andrew Quinn (writer for Reuters) March 15, 2011 “Analysis: Bahrain crisis exposes U.S.-Saudi Arabia rift” http://www.bestgrowthstock.com/stock-market-news/2011/03/15/analysis-bahrain-crisis-exposes-u-s-saudi-arabia-rift/
  Few suggest that the fundamentals AND Saudi Arabia as “an important partner.”

  Relations not resilient – even if they are Saudis will overreact to trigger our impacts
  Yoel Guzansky (a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University) July 1, 2011 “Tehran tests Saudis' nerve on nuclear weapons” http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555
  Saudi Arabia, at least for now, AND  contradictory steps to ensure its security.
  Saudis wont listen to US attempts to repair the relationship
  David Sanger (Chief Washington Correspondent for The New York Times, member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Aspen Strategy Group) and Eric Schmitt (senior writer who covers terrorism and national security issues for The New York Times) March 2011 “U.S.-Saudi Tensions Intensify With Mideast Turmoil” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/middleeast/15saudi.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=middleeast
  Saudi officials have made no secret AND question what we’d do if they are next.” 

  A) plan causes empowerment of religioius hardliners that ensures extremist violence
  Toby Jones (Formerly the Gulf Analyst with the International Crisis Group, he is assistant professor of Middle East history at Rutgers University) April 2011 “Counterrevolution in the Gulf” http://www.usip.org/files/resources/PB%2089%20Counterrevolution%20in%20the%20Gulf.pdf
  One of the most important outcomes AND globalization of violent extremism in subsequent decades.
  B) Sahwa – they will prevent instability now – plan causes successful uprising and instability
  Stephane Lacroix (Assistant Professor of Political Science at Sciences Po, associate fellow at the Kuwait Program, Ph.D. Stanford) June 2, 2011 “Saudi Islamists and the potential for protest” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/02/saudi_islamists_and_the_potential_for_protest
  Saudi Arabia has remained fairly quiet AND  effectively co-opted the Sahwa,

  
  Saudis sabotage the plan and backlash – they perceive it as a threat to their own regime
  DemDigest June 6, 2011 “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/
  With Yemen finely poised between transition AND  delicate and tortured than elsewhere in the region.

  Saudi’s backlash against Yemen democratization
  Ellen Knickmeyer (former Washington Post Middle East bureau chief and Associated Press Africa bureau chief) July 5, 2011 “Trouble Down South” http://www.pomeps.org/2011/08/10/arab-uprisings-the-saudi-counter-revolution/
  But can Saudi Arabia, AND salary from a foreign government?”

  Saudi Arabia is stable and US relations wont collapse now – but they are vulnerable now
  Christopher Boucek (associate in the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and lecturer in politics at the Woodrow Wilson School, media analyst at the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington,  associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, and former security editor with Jane's Information Group) June 21, 2011 “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il
  Saudi Arabia is not immune AND United States what Saudi Arabia does. 

  
  
  

Politics Block Cites Kentucky Rd 4

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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• KORUS
  Heg solves their impacts and extinction
  Thayer 2007 (Bradley A. Thayer, Associate Professor in the Dept. of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, 2007 American Empire: A Debate, “Reply to Christopher Layne” p 118)
  To abandon its leadership role would be a
  AND
  is the last, best hope of humanity.
  Turns case- Kills credibility
  Palmer 9/6 (Doug Palmer, September 6, 2011, "UPDATE 2-PREVIEW-U.S. trade deals face tricky approval path,” google)
  Failure to pass the trade deals would hurt
  AND
  but in other international negotiations," Schwab said.
  A. Timeframe and probability- KORUS key to deter North Korea aggression- now is key
  Riley 2010 (Bryan Riley, Heritage Foundation blog, “South Korea Trade Pact: More Important Than Ever - The Heritage Foundation” November 13, 2010, google)
  The economic case for the South Korea–
  AND
  back one of our country’s key strategic allies.
  Will pass- House deal on TAA passage is imminent
  Inside US Trade 9/30 (“White House May Submit FTAs as Early as Next Week, but No Deal Yet,” Lexis)
  Opponents and supporters of the pending free trade
  AND
  Inside U.S. Trade, Sept. 

  Will pass- Final details are being hammered out- Insiders
  Inside US Trade 9/30 (“White House May Submit FTAs as Early as Next Week, but No Deal Yet,” Lexis)
  Pro-FTA lobbyists said that the White
  AND
  of President Lee's visit to the United States.

  China thumper evidence is hype- Only a procedural vote
  Reuters 9/27 (“UPDATE 1-US Senate to take up China currency bill next week,” google)
  The Senate will hold a procedural vote on
  AND
  meetings in the first two weeks of November.
  KORUS key to the alliance and failure would collapse it
  Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee Chi-dong, August 30, 2011, “Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS,” Yonhap News, google)
  A collapse in the United States of a
  AND
  economic presence in East Asia," it added. 

  1. Non-unique: South provocation has been increasing.
     Raimondo, 2010 (Justin Raimondo, Anti-War.com, “Korean Conundrum: Is There a Way Out?” November 24, google)
     For the South Koreans to conduct military exercises
     AND
     when Korean reunification seemed like a real possibility.
     3. South Korea will be deterred- the risks only cut toward Northern aggression.
     McDevitt, 2011 (Michael McDevitt, Vice President and Director, CNA Strategic Studies, The Brookings Institution, “Deterring North Korean Provocations” February, google)
     Pyongyang has put in place the capability to
     AND
     to act even in ways that appear irrational.
  2. It’s incredibly non unique- their author concludes.
     Bhagwati ’02 [Jagdish, Professor of Economics and Political Science at Columbia University, Economic Policy Adviser to the Director General of the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade, “Protectionism”, The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Protectionism.html]
     The current concerns about protectionism extend to two
     AND
     . This is bad for universal free trade.
     2. Their evidence isn’t specific- in the case of Korea, it’s key to all trade and prevents trade wars.
     Sang-Keun 2006 (Byun Sang-Keun, senior columnist of the Joongang Ilbo, “Work for a win-win agreement,” JoongAng Ilbo, Korea, http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=3746)
     When the world is making strenuous efforts to
     AND
     the North American Free Trade Agreement was reached.
  1. The warrant from their Tonelson evidence is Korea’s application of a Value-Added Tax system- That’s not true; Tonelson is an idiot.
     Houtzager, 2011 (Mark Houtzager is the principal consultant at US VAT, Inc. - providing Value Added Tax support for U.S. multinationals, US-VAT, “Value Added Tax Blog”, January, 2011
     No Alan, VAT is not a tariff
     AND
     on American importers. It is simply untrue.
     Failure to pass FTAs derails economic recovery
     Lucas 8/10 (Frank Lucas, rep of Oklahoma’s 3rd district, “Implementation of Free Trade Agreements Should Happen Now,” Edmond Sun, http://www.edmondsun.com/opinion/x850296422/Implementation-of-free-trade-agreements-should-happen-now)
     Delays in implementation of three pending free trade
     AND
     which is a 30 percent increase from 2008. 
  
  
  

Topicality v. Towson EM - UK Dubs

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• A. Interpretation: the AFF should advocate ‘increasing US support for reform capacity abroad.’

  The subject: central government- the USFG.

  The verb: increase- to make greater.

  The object: “democracy assistance”, in the context of the resolution, should target a foreign nation.

  Huber, 8 [Daniela, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf]

  What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

  AND

  the democracy promoter rewards internal democracy promotion efforts.

  B. LINKS:

  1. The SUBJECT of the action is the AFF team, not the USFG.

  2. The OBJECT of the action is the judge, not a foreign nation.

   

  C. ADVANTAGES:

  1. Infinite regression—disregarding resolutional syntax produces an endless regression to small, trivial plans. For example, an aff only about the subject opens the door to ANY philosophy that speaks to ‘being.’

  2. Limits—resolutional limits encourage AFF innovation, predictive research on a designated topic, and clash—a precursor to productive education. Also, the inherent value of arguments within limits is greater, which link turns education arguments.

  D. If our interpretation is net-beneficial it means there’s no reason to vote affirmative. If the case is true then it de-justifies the resolution. Teams are still signified by ‘AFF’ and ‘NEG’, so the resolution is a required measurement for ‘affirmation.’

  
  
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Democracy Assistance PIC v Towson EM - UK Dubs

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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• Text options:
  Jordan and I advocate the 1NC as a discussion of a pan-africanist agenda.
  Jordan and I affirm the performance of the 1AC as a discussion of a pan-africanist agenda, but reject its use of the phrase of “democracy assistance.”
  Solves all of the aff- Endorses their ethic and performance without problematic resolutional discourse that isn’t intrinsic to their argument but is explicitly tied to their advocacy by the rhetoric of the 1AC
  The phrase “democracy assistance” is not benign- It endorses a hegemonic relationship with the third world and legitimizes transnational oppression
  Sussman 2006 (Gerald Sussman, Professor of Urban Studies and Planning and Speech Communication at Portland State University, 2006 “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 7 http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe)
  U.S. interventionism, except perhaps
  AND
  political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.
  Further, the term “assistance” denotes a one-directional relationship that posits the benefactor as superior to the recipient- Replicates the worst forms of assimilation
  McGinn 2004 (Fmr Harvard Professor, Journal of International Cooperation in Education, Vol.7, No.1, (2004) pp.15)
  The term “assistance” or “aid
  AND
  costs of continuing (Brinkerhoff & Goldsmith 2003).
  Turns their method and prevents solvency
  Hughes 2005 (Bryn Hughes, Project Manager at the Institute for Social Science Research, 2005 “The ‘Fundamental’ Threat of (Neo)Liberal Democracy: An Unlikely Source of Legitimation for Political Violence” Dialogue Vol 3, No. 2 http://www.polsis.uq.edu.au/dialogue/3-2-4.pdf)
  Debates about democracy matter now more than ever
  AND
  in Scotland at the time of this writing. 

  
  
  

Whiteness/Pan-Africanism Answers v. Towson EM - UK Dubs

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• The centrality of the State means the “rigged game” can only be confronted with the State.

  Lumumba-Kasongo, 2004 ( GLOBAL DIALOGUE Volume 6 ● Number 3–4 ● Summer/Autumn 2004—Africa in Crisis Rethinking Pan-Africanism in the Search for Social Progress TUKUMBI LUMUMBA-KASONGO Tukumbi Lumumba-Kasongo is professor of political science and environmental studies at Wells College. His forthcoming book, Who and What Govern in the World of the States? A Comparative Study of Constitutions, Citizenry, Politics, http://www.worlddialogue.org/content.php?id=314)

  Pan-Africanism is essentially an international phenomenon

  AND

  states, and the rest of the world.

  The State is a prerequisite to the alternative- reform of institutions AND society promotes the form of critical thinking necessary to challenge whiteness.

  Lumumba-Kasongo, 2004 ( GLOBAL DIALOGUE Volume 6 ● Number 3–4 ● Summer/Autumn 2004—Africa in Crisis Rethinking Pan-Africanism in the Search for Social Progress TUKUMBI LUMUMBA-KASONGO Tukumbi Lumumba-Kasongo is professor of political science and environmental studies at Wells College. His forthcoming book, Who and What Govern in the World of the States? A Comparative Study of Constitutions, Citizenry, Politics, http://www.worlddialogue.org/content.php?id=314)

  Rethinking Pan-Africanism Pan-Africanism may

  AND

  recapture, democratise, and appropriate the state.

  Pan-Africanism fails - causes essentialism – imperialism is not the root cause

  Tunde Adeleke “The Case Against Afrocentrism” Copyright 2009 by University Press of Mississippi.  Google Books, Online Adeleke has  a PhD and is a the director (and professor in) the African and African American Studies program at Iowa State University. 

  As this study has shown, Pan-

  AND

  reign of terror despite foreign opposition and condemnation. 

  Pan-Africanism papers over key issues of nationalistic sovereignty – they justify Ghadafi style continental unification which is empirically bad

  Tunde Adeleke “The Case Against Afrocentrism” Copyright 2009 by University Press of Mississippi.  Google Books, Online Adeleke has  a PhD and is a the director (and professor in) the African and African American Studies program at Iowa State University. 

  The two key rallying points of traditional Pan

  AND

  for the leaders to envision a continental union. 

  Our essentialism turn is a prerequisite to any successful call for Pan-Africanism

  Tunde Adeleke “The Case Against Afrocentrism” Copyright 2009 by University Press of Mississippi.  Google Books, Online Adeleke has  a PhD and is a the director (and professor in) the African and African American Studies program at Iowa State University. 

  Africa is not ready for the kind of

  AND

  identification of the enemy in strictly racial terms. 

   

  White supremacy is not the root cause of oppression – its impossible to pin down monolithic root causes

  Tommie Shelby (Professor of African and African American Studies and Professor of Philosophy at Harvard University) 2005 “We Who Are Dark” P. 147-8

  Others might challenge the distinction between ideological and

  AND

  policy or reduced federal funding for higher education).

   

  Placing the black body at the center relegates other important factors that construct identities—their mono-causal explanation also falsely promises an emergence of social justice.

  Niemonen, 2010 (Jack Niemonen, American Sociologist, 41(1), 48-81, “Public Sociology or Partisan Sociology? The Curious Case of Whiteness Studies” EBSCOhost)

  Despite recognition that racial classification systems are not

  AND

  , cowardice, and hypocrisy (Blum 2002).

   

  Focusing on whiteness risks reifying it as a monolith, repositioning whiteness as the center of intellectual inquiry

  Ahmed, ’04. Sara. Reader in Race and Cultural Studies, Goldsmiths College, University of London. Borderlands e-journal, Vol. 3 #2, 2004. < http://www.borderlands.net.au/vol3no2_2004/ahmed_declarations.htm>

  Whiteness studies is after all deeply invested in

  AND

  "inhabitants"’ (1997, 1).

   

  Making the personal political fails

  Collins, professor of sociology at the University of Cinncinnati, 1997  (Patricia Hill, Fighting Words, p. 135-136)

  In this sense, postmodern views of power

  AND

  and rightful demand” (1993, 13).

  Narratives and personal experience cannot effectively combat whiteness—the premise that rejects “Eurocentric” methods means the AFF is too arbitrary to generate real sociological discussion.

  Niemonen, 2010 (Jack Niemonen, American Sociologist, 41(1), 48-81, “Public Sociology or Partisan Sociology? The Curious Case of Whiteness Studies” EBSCOhost)

  As opposed to recognizing that rationality, objectivity

  AND

  could not succeed in the absence of reification.

   

  Their performativity is not transformative, and won’t be able to break down whiteness

  Ahmed, ’04. Sara. Reader in Race and Cultural Studies, Goldsmiths College, University of London. Borderlands e-journal, Vol. 3 #2, 2004. < http://www.borderlands.net.au/vol3no2_2004/ahmed_declarations.htm>

   

  I would hasten to add that in my

  AND

  saying’ to ‘do’ what it ‘says’.

  Don’t let them get away with playing the “all your evidence is a product of racism” card – you should hold their arguments to rigorous logical standards and not simply dismiss our evidence as ‘just another link’

  John McWhorter (Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Associate Professor of Linguistics at UC Berkeley after teaching at Cornell University) 2000 “Losing the Race:  Self-Sabotage in Black America” p. 54-5

  As the spawn of Victimology, Separatism shares

  AND

  but chronicling victimhood and reinforcing community self-esteem

  Methodological criticisms of our evidence base on the institutionalized nature of race does not warrant simply ignoring it -

  Martyn Hammersley (Prof. Education and Social Research @ Centre for Childhood, Development and Learning) 1993, British Journal of Sociology, “Research and 'anti-racism': the case of Peter Foster and his critics,” 44.3, 11-93, JSTOR]

  Various sorts of criticism have been directed at

  AND

  knowledge while others are blinded by ideology.20

  
  
• 
  
  

Saudi DA - Yemen Links

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Saudis sabotage the plan and backlash – they perceive it as a threat to their own regime

  DemDigest June 6, 2011 “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/

  With Yemen finely poised AND tortured than elsewhere in the region.

   

   

  Saudi’s backlash against Yemen democratization

  Ellen Knickmeyer (former Washington Post Middle East bureau chief and Associated Press Africa bureau chief) July 5, 2011 “Trouble Down South” http://www.pomeps.org/2011/08/10/arab-uprisings-the-saudi-counter-revolution/

  But can Saudi Arabia, AND salary from a foreign government?”

  Saudis sabotage the aff – their reaction to the plan ensures Yemen rejects US assistance – Knee-jerk Saudi reactions are the root cause of instability

  Bernard Haykel (Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University) June 14, 2011 “Saudi Arabia's Yemen dilemma” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/14/saudi-arabias-yemen-dilemma/

  Saudi Arabia, perpetually in fear of chaos

  AND

  -ideological nature of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy.

  Relations on the mend but plan deviates from joint plan for Yemen

  Dollard 12/29 (Pat Dollard, “With $30 Billion Arms Deal, U.S. Bolsters Sunni Saudi Ties, Sends Message To Shiite Iran,” http://goo.gl/U9ibu)

  The sale to Saudi Arabia may also suggest

  AND

  travel to the United States for medical treatment.

  
  
• 
  
  

Privitization CP

• Tournament: UK | Round: 4 | Opponent: Minn CE | Judge: K. Kernoff
  
  

• The United States Federal Government should:

   

  -          announce its intention to provide political training and support to democratic civil society groups in Syria

  -          not increase its democracy assistance for the aforementioned program

  -          offer to American private investors and organizations, including business and individuals, a tax credit worth 39 percent of the cost of investment for private investors to fund and provide any necessary assistance to relevant governmental and/or non-governmental organization associated with the aforementioned program

  -          provide all necessary consultative support, advise, and expertise necessary for proper implementation of programs associated with private investors who receive the tax credit.

  Presumption flips neg – the CP is net less government action

  Only the CP solves – Bureaucracy crushes aff solvency – avoids politics

  Eric Werker (assistant professor at Harvard Business School) and Justin Muzinich (Hedge fund manager in Connecticut) October 20, 2007 “A Global Tax Credit”

  The second problem is that the money that

  AND

  brings the fruits of globalization to poor countries.

  Comparatively solves better – Investors will jump on board

  Stephen McInerny (Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), director of Advocacy at POMED, including graduate studies in Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo) April 2011 “The Logic of the Donor Community: American Donors,”, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/EMHRF-paper-the-logic-of-the-donor-community-American-donors.pdf

  Private foundations and nonprofit institutions can be a

  AND

  for providing support during the period of transition.

   

  Foreign aid is government coercion and destroys liberty

  Thomas DiLorenzo (professor of economics at Loyola College)1/6/2005 “A Foreign Aid Disaster in the Making,” http://mises.org/daily/1715

  Politicians are bound to politicize this disaster,

  AND

  are always to the recipient country’s central government.

  It’s a moral side constraint – every instance is key

  Sylvester Petro, professor of law at Wake Forest, Spring 1974, Toledo Law Review, p480

  However, one may still insist on echoing

  AND

  be emphatically identified and resisted with undying spirit.

  Makes extinction inevitable – its try or die

  Louis Rene Beres, Professor of International Law, Purdue University, Spring, 1994, ARIZONA JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL AND COMPARATIVE LAW, p. 23-4

  This, then, is an altogether different

  AND

  , the most indelible badge of modern humankind.

   

  Increasing government aid causes internal counter-bureaucracy backlash that crushes and crowds out effective implementation of the plan

  Andrew Natsios (Prof of Diplomacy and Government-Georgetown and former administrator of USAID, Center for Global Development) July 2010 “The Clash of the Counter-bureaucracy and Development”

  The Counter-bureaucracy One of the little

  AND

  I believe we are well past that point.

  2NC

  A2 Perm Do Both

  Plan crowds out the CP – investors will back out

  Raj M. Desai (Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution, and Associate Professor of International Development in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University) and Homi Kharas (a Senior Fellow for global economy and development with the Wolfensohn Center) Summer 2010 “The Privatization of Development Assistance*: DEMOCRATIZING FOREIGN AID: ONLINE PHILANTHROPY AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE” Lexis

  The public economics literature suggests that collective action

  AND

  action constraint to international aid is minimal. 20

   

  A2 Perm Do the CP

  It severs ‘its’

  Dictionary.com 2011

  Belonging to or associated with a thing previously mentioned

  US assistance is only direct governmental aid

  Carol Adelman (Former Assistant Administrator – USAID and Senior Fellow – Hudson Institute) 2003 “Foreign Aid in the National Interest”, Chapter 6—The Full Measure of Foreign Aid, http://www.usaid.gov/fani/ch06/

  United States aid to developing countries is generally

  AND

  U.S. aid to foreign countries.

  Severs immediacy - Should

  Justice Summer, Oklahoma Supreme Court, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant”, 1994, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14

  4 The legal question to be resolved by

  AND

  27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).

   

  Private actors can partner directly with NGOs - they will invest in the CP

  Mauro De Lorenzo (resident fellow at AEI) and Apoorva Shah (intern at AEI) December 2007 “Entrepreneurial Philanthropy in the Developing World” http://www.aei.org/outlook/27220

  As the above cases of entrepreneurial philanthropy demonstrate

  AND

  prosperity and the policies needed to maintain it.

   

  2NC Net Benefit Cards

  Reducing the overall level of government coercion should be the lens you view our impacts – it’s a moral side constraint – that’s Pertro – otherwise it destroys ALL human aspiration – we’d be better off dead

  Joseph Raz, philosopher, THE MORALITY OF FREEDOM, 1986, p. 307

  One way to test the thesis of the

  AND

  being alive can be better than that life.

  Completely wipes out any chance of democracy assistance programs - paralyzing risk avoidance deadens the plans effect

  Thomas Carothers (the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe, practiced international and financial law at Arnold & Porter and served as an attorney-adviser in

  the Office of the Legal Adviser of the U.S. Department of State, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School) 2009  http://www.scribd.com/doc/21802142/Revitalizing-U-S-Democracy-Assistance-The-Challenge-of-USAID      

  USAID’s basic operating procedures—a term used

  AND

  actual nature of the challenges and objectives involved.

  
  
• 
  
  

T - Democracy Assistance

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: Cal GW | Judge: Seth Gannon
  
  

• Topicality

  Being topical under THIS topic requires more rigorous defenses of vague phrases – throw out any interpretation that allows plan texts which fails to explicitly, directly label themselves exclusively as democracy assistance.

  Defining the topic as democracy promotion would leads to hundreds of viable cases per country. In a Venn Diagram, mechanisms like election assistance could overlap with democracy assistance if an additional condition is present:

  Our interp requires that the assistance MECHANISM must be both EXPLICITLY for democracy in the plan text and DIRECTLY tied to a specific political variable of political democracy.  This political variable must be measureable on a continuous indice evaluating nonmaterial attitudinal support for democracy. Assign violation presumption to the neg; aff can overcome by committing to existing theory indice about how they measure democracy. This procedure avoids the imprecision of merging the conditions for democracy with its results.

  Agnes Cornell (Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Sweden) 2008 “Does democracy aid promote democracy?” http://uit.no/getfile.php?PageId=1410&FileId=1349

  In this paper it is argued that democracy

  AND

  ending task of so many researchers before me.

   

  IMET is security assistance NOT democracy assistance
  
  

  AND

  US diplomatic and military representatives in foreign countries.

  To be extra topical is to be non-topical because democracy assistance means assistance which is explicitly limited to assisting a democratic purpose.  This limitation must be explicit in the plan text otherwise the presumption should be they are extra topical.

  T is a voter for precision, which controls internal links to limits, predictability, solvency, and education about democratic intentions and practices of donors and recipients

  
  
• 
  
  

Redlines/Shaming CP

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: Cal GW | Judge: Seth Gannon
  
  

• Text – The United States Federal Government should openly communicate “redlines” to Egyptian military leaders and political parties about behavior the US is unwilling to accept.  This should include a promise to recognize the outcome of any Egyptian election only if those elected to not commit to conflicts beyond Egypt’s borders.

  The United States Federal Government should implement a policy of diplomatic praising and shaming of the Egyptian military over democratization and protester crackdowns in Egypt

   

  This solves radical takeover

  Eric Trager (The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania) September/October 2011 “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704

  Washington should view the

  AND

  Square fought so valiantly.

  This solves military foot-dragging – generals are hypersensitive to US criticism and will take actions to avoid it

  Jeff Martini (project associate at the RAND Corporation) and Julie Taylor (political scientist at the RAND Corporation) August 25, 2011 “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future” http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html

  That said, the United States can still

  AND

  ." This subdued response was a missed opportunity.

  
  
• 
  
  

Saudi DA 1NC/Block

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: Cal GW | Judge: Seth Gannon
  
  

• 1NC

  The plan breaks from the pragmatic status quo approach, which is keeping the pressure off of Saudi

  Lajeunesse, October 12 (Gabriel Lajeunesse, Huffington Post, “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy” 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gabriel-lajeunesse/arab-spring-foreign-policy_b_1006170.html)

  As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

  AND

  Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

  This shreds relations

  Vali Nasr (Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former Senior Fellow with The Dubai Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University) May 23, 2011 “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?”

  In his speech last week on the Middle

  AND

  S. in the middle of the conflict.

  This goes nuclear

  Herbert London (President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University) June 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East “ http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

  The gathering storm in the Middle East is

  AND

  second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.

  Block Cards

  Relations solve regional escalation

  James Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) September 2002 “Deconstructing the U.S.-Saudi Partnership?” http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/CCC/publications/OnlineJournal/2002/sept02/middleEast2.pdf

  As a lynchpin of U.S

  AND

  longer serves U.S. strategic interests.

  Saudi Arabia will sabotage the plans reform efforts

  Suzanne Maloney (Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy) May 20, 2011 “The Alliance That Dare Not Speak Its Name”

  In some areas, such as Iran and

  AND

  to our most important ally, Saudi Arabia.

   

  Saudi Arabia is controlling the Egyptian revolution now

  Olga Aymerich (MA in International and Intercultural Relations (Middle East)) May 2011 “Stability Trumps Religion in Saudi Arabia's Arab Spring Policies” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=511

  For these reasons, Abdullah tried to limit

  AND

  and, hence, a stable Saudi Arabia.

   

  Link ensures SCAF backlashes against the plan

  Daniel Korski (European Council On Foreign Relations) July 5, 2011 :Arab Spring: Without military reform Egypt cannot democratize” http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/42669

  The key consideration is to cajole and persuade

  AND

  bought through the comfortable kleptocracy of Military Inc.

   

  US-Saudi relations key to contain Chinese expansionism

  Joseph Lazazzero (Legal Assistant at Law Offices of James P. McCarthy) 2008 “The U.S.-Saudi Alliance: A Necessary Shift toward Peace”

  The United States’ relations in the Middle East

  AND

  Shilby, et al, 251-252).

  Causes miscalculation and war – spirals out of control and escalates

  Mamdouh G. Salameh (an international oil economist, a consultant to the World Bank in Washington, DC on energy affairs and a technical expert of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in Vienna, Director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service in the UK and a member of both the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London and the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He is also a member of the Energy Institute in London) 2010 “China’s Global Oil Diplomacy: Benign or Hostile?”

  Saudi Arabia, holder of the world’s largest

  AND

  and even global peace depend on the answers.

  Draws in Russia, ends in extinction

  Straits Times 6-25-2000

  THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

  AND

  , we would see the destruction of civilisation.

  Turns heg

  Shibley Telhami (the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, College Park, and non-resident senior fellow at the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution) and Fiona Hill (Director, Center on the United States and Europe Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy The Stephen and Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute) November/December 2002 “Does Saudi Arabia Still Matter? Differing Perspectives on the Kingdom and Its Oil” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/58444/shibley-telhami-fiona-hill-et-al/does-saudi-arabia-still-matter-differing-perspectives-on-the-kin?page=show

  Given America's ongoing security interest in the Persian

  AND

  in the case of a war with Iraq.

   

  A2 Aid Now

  No MENA democracy aid now – if there is its small and sluggish now

  David Rosenberg (Columnist for the Jerusalem Post) September 13, 2011 “Doubts surround aid to Arab Spring countries” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=237759&R=R3

  Urgently needed funds haven't arrived yet; economists

  AND

  , London’s Financial Times reported on September 7.

   

  Specifically not to Egypt

  Hall 9/7 (Camilla Hall, September 7, 2011, Financial Times, “Arab spring gets only fraction of funds,” FT, google)

  Tunisia and Egypt have received only a fraction

  AND

  disbursed at this weekend’s G7 meeting in Marseilles.

   

  A2 Resilience

  Even if they win this argument we still access our DA – Pre-emption, lashout, and internal instability are all independent of US relations – short-term reactions outweigh

  Andrew Quinn (writer for Reuters) March 15, 2011 “Analysis: Bahrain crisis exposes U.S.-Saudi Arabia rift” http://www.bestgrowthstock.com/stock-market-news/2011/03/15/analysis-bahrain-crisis-exposes-u-s-saudi-arabia-rift/

  Few suggest that the fundamentals of the U

  AND

  regarded Saudi Arabia as “an important partner.”

   

  Relations not resilient – even if they are Saudis will overreact to trigger our impacts

  Yoel Guzansky (a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University) July 1, 2011 “Tehran tests Saudis' nerve on nuclear weapons” http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555

  Saudi Arabia, at least for now,

  AND

  of even contradictory steps to ensure its security.

  Saudis wont listen to US attempts to repair the relationship

  David Sanger (Chief Washington Correspondent for The New York Times, member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Aspen Strategy Group) and Eric Schmitt (senior writer who covers terrorism and national security issues for The New York Times) March 2011 “U.S.-Saudi Tensions Intensify With Mideast Turmoil” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/middleeast/15saudi.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=middleeast

  Saudi officials have made no secret of their

  AND

  question what we’d do if they are next.”

   

  plan causes empowerment of religioius hardliners that ensures extremist violence

  Toby Jones (Formerly the Gulf Analyst with the International Crisis Group, he is assistant professor of Middle East history at Rutgers University) April 2011 “Counterrevolution in the Gulf” http://www.usip.org/files/resources/PB%2089%20Counterrevolution%20in%20the%20Gulf.pdf

  One of the most important outcomes of the

  AND

  the globalization of violent extremism in subsequent decades.

  Independently collapses the economy

  Eugenio Dacrema (writer for Equilibri) April 14, 2011 “Saudi Arabia and the western nightmares” http://www.equilibri.net/nuovo/articolo/saudi-arabia-and-western-nightmares

  The economic reason is obviously related to oil

  AND

  would open completely unpredictable scenarios concerning the energy costs

   

  Links

  A)     Spin - Saudi Arabia will spin the plan as supporting Iranian influence

  Ishaan Tharoor (writer for TIME magazine) May 17, 2011 “The Saudi-Iranian Cold War: Is This the Future of the Middle East?” http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/05/17/the-saudi-iranian-cold-war-is-this-the-future-of-the-middle-east/

  We're in territory here that's light years away

  AND

  in steering the upheaval to its own ends.

  Saudi Arabia is willing to proliferate if it perceives a threat

  Konstantin 12/7 (Garibov Konstantin, December 7, 2011, “Saudi Arabia warns it might join a nuclear arms race,” Voice of Russia, http://goo.gl/Hur7Y)

  Prince of Saudi Arabia Turki bin Faisal Al

  AND

  Saudi Arabia and will certainly join the race."

  Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting

  Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf

  Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold

  AND

  about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

   

  Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework

  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”

  The basis of the argument that escalation is

  AND

  of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

  Plan causes US-China oil wars

  Gal Luft (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) in Washington, D.C.) and Anne Korin (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS and the editor of Energy Security) 2004 “The Sino-Saudi Connection” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm

  Even if Saudi Arabia does not pursue nuclear

  AND

  Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.

   

  These escalate globally

  Jim Cabral (teaches international relations and political science in the Social Science Department at Landmark College in Putney, Vt.) August 12, 2010 “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy” http://www.valleyadvocate.com/article.cfm?aid=12165

  The preoccupation of states with securing the reliability

  AND

  that they will be caught in any conflagration."

  US-Saudi relations solve terrorism

  Joseph Lazazzero (Legal Assistant at Law Offices of James P. McCarthy) 2008 “The U.S.-Saudi Alliance: A Necessary Shift toward Peace”

  Just as the U.S.-Saudi

  AND

  Arabia have stakes in winning the War on Terrorism

  
  
• 
  
  

China Bashing Politics

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: Cal GW | Judge: Seth Gannon
  
  

• China bashing won’t pass now- Boehner’s capital key to block

  Medina 10/28 (Gil Medina, “De-Politicizing our China Policy,” NJBIZ, http://goo.gl/4iLvQ)

  The Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act that

  AND

  S. and China define their bilateral relationship.

   

  Unconditional Military Assistance to Egypt costs political capital – budget pressure and Israel lobby

  Dreyfuss 2011 (Robert, Nation contributing editor, is an investigative journalist in Alexandria, Virginia, specializing in politics and national security, “Egypt, Hamas and Obama”, 5-26-11, http://www.thenation.com/blog/160970/egypt-hamas-and-obama)

  Last week, President Obama called for stepped

  AND

  to have to see about that as well.”

  These fights empirically destroy Boehner’s capital

  McManus 2011 (Doyle McManus, April 3, 2011, “No party for John Boehner,” LA Times, google)

  Last week, Boehner and Reid agreed to

  AND

  one-third of the cuts they promised.

  All of Boehner’s capital is key

  Beattie 10/4 (Alan Beattie, “US currency bill drama belies grind ahead,” Financial Times, google)

  So, are they serious? Monday’s overwhelming

  AND

  the Republican presidential nomination, has supported it.

   

  US-China trade conflict guts relations and is the most likely scenario for military escalation

  Landy 2007 (Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, April 3, 2007, google)

  The greatest threat for the 21st century is

  AND

  in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

  Relations key to solve prolif, disease, terrorism and the economy

  Hickey 2011 (Dennis V. Hickey, James F. Morris Endowed Professor of Political Science and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Studies at the distinguished Missouri State University, Harvard of the Midwest, “Sino-US cooperation essential,” China Daily, google)

  After all, cooperation between the two governments

  AND

  from his angle as well as your own".

  
  
• 
  
  

Impact Defense

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Middle East War

  Prefer our literature base – theirs overinflates threats about the outbreak of conflict

  Edward Luttwak (CSIS senior associate and has served as a consultant to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, and a number of allied governments as well as international corporations and financial institutions) May 2007 “The middle of nowhere” http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2007/05/themiddleofnowhere/

  Why are middle east experts so unfailingly wrong

  AND

  killed in a season of conflict in Darfur.

  Mideast armies adopt purely defensive postures – they err towards conflict aversion not offensive deployment – That’s Takeyh - ensures conflicts wont occur or escalate – more evidence

  Matthew Yglesias (Associate Editor of The Atlantic Monthly) September 12 2007 “Containing Iraq”, The Atlantic.com

  Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on

  AND

  the desert hunting a possibly mythical terrorist organization.

  Here’s even more empirical examples that disprove great power escalation

  Kevin Drum September 9 2007 The Washington Monthly, “The Chaos Hawks”

  Needless to say, this is nonsense.

  AND

  war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

   

  Hegemony

  Laundry list of structural factors prevent regional heg

  Leon Hadar (American University IR professor) July 1, 2011 “Saving U.S. Mideast Policy” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556)

  The strategic mantra coming out of Washington is

  AND

  common interest in stabilizing Afghanistan and containing the rivalries

  Heg doesn’t solve war

  Barbara Conry (former associate policy analyst, was a public relations consultant at Hensley Segal Rentschler and an expert on security issues in the Middle East, Western Europe, and Central Asia at the CATO Institute) and Charles V. Pena (Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute as well as a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, and an adviser on the Straus Military Reform Project at the CATO Institute) 2003 “47. US Security Strategy” CATO Handbook for Congress, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb108/hb108-47.pdf

  Another rationale for attempting to manage global security

  AND

  from political, economic, or military conflagration.

   

  Empirically proven

  Christopher J. Fettweis (Professor of national security affairs @ U.S. Naval War College) 2010 “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2 April 2010 , pages 59 – 82

  One potential explanation for the growth of global

  AND

  world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

   

  No credible threats now

  Doug Bandow (senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former special assistant to President Reagan) January 2010 “Military Spending — For What?” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11143

  The United States dominates the globe militarily.

  AND

  military — one well able to defend Americans.

  Economy

  Economic collapse doesn’t cause war – no causal connection

  Thomas P.M. Barnett (senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire magazine) August 2009 “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis” http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx

  When the global financial crisis struck roughly a

  AND

  apace. That's what the Internet is for.

  Countries turn inward – creates peace

  Lloyd deMause, director of The Institute for Psychohistory, “Nuclear War as an Anti-Sexual Group Fantasy” Updated December 18^th 2002, http://www.geocities.com/kidhistory/ja/nucsex.htm

  The nation "turns inward" during this

  AND

  , arms expeditures decrease and peace treaties multiply.

  No escalation – its all just rhetoric

  Charles Boehmer (political science professor at the University of Texas) 2007 Politics & Policy, 35:4, “The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict”

  The theory presented earlier predicts that lower rates

  AND

  so would compromise their ability to retain power.

  
  
• 
  
  

Round Reports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 
  

  
  
• 
  
  

Yemen - A2 Groupthink Advantage

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1NC Groupthink Defense

  Groupthink not key- Bad decision-making happens without it and removing it can’t prevent bad decisions

  Johnson 2001 (Major Philip Johnson, January 1, 2011, “Effects of Groupthink on Tactical Decision-Making,” School of Advanced Military Studies, United States Army Command and General Staff College, google)

  Groupthink is only one factor among other influencing

  AND

  lower the probability of a successful decision outcome.

  Groupthink can’t explain military decision-making

  Hutter 2009 (Jim Hutter, department of political science at Iowa State, “Groupthink and the Invasion of Iraq,” google)

  With such a long list of conditions and

  AND

  , high stress, or esprit de corps.

  No preemptive strikes- Too expensive and no public support- Cooperation is more likely

  Gordon 2006 (Philip Gordon, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, July/August 2006, “The End of the Bush Revolution,” Foreign Affairs volume 85, number 4)

  The more likely course is that global realities

  AND

  highly desirable but unlikely to unfold anytime soon.

  Chussudovsky is completely nuts – its all conspiracy theories

  Terry O'Neill (writer for the Western Standard) September 2006 “Canada's Nuttiest Professors”  

  MICHAEL CHOSSUDOVSKY, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY

  AND

  about anti-Semitic postings on Chossudovsky's site.

  Counterinsurgency doctrine is dead- Policymakers realize it is ineffective and way too expensive

  Forsyth 2011 (James Wood Forsyth, professor of national security studies at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, Fall 2011, “The Past as Prologue: Realist Thought and the Future of American Security Policy,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, google)

  Within the marketplace of ideas, counterinsurgency casts

  AND

  marks the beginning of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

  Polls prove – 99% of Yemenis hate us – plan only triggers backlash

  Nick Turse (fellow at Harvard University's Radcliffe Institute) April 2011 "Is US Aid Suppressing Another Mideast Freedom Struggle?" 4-28 motherjones.com/politics/2011/04/us-aid-suppressing-yemeni-revolution)

  After watching two allied autocrats fall in Tunisia

  AND

  the United States took in their freedom struggle.

  AQAP will spin the plan – guarantees backlash

  Christian Science Monitor 10 "Why Yemen's US-aided fight against Al Qaeda could backfire," April 30,  www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0430/Why-Yemen-s-US-aided-fight-against-Al-Qaeda-could-backfire/(page)/2

  But working closely with the US is a

  AND

  , will create political problems for the government.”

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Payroll Tax Politics

• Tournament: Wake | Round: 1 | Opponent: Gonzaga DH | Judge: Brovero
  
  

• Payroll tax extension will pass- Obama is key

  Lee 11/10 (Carol Lee, “White House to Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut,” WSJ, http://goo.gl/uoAT4)

  The White House is gearing up to make

  AND

  Both expire at the end of the year.

   

  Plan costs capital- Causes huge spending fights in Congress

  Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

  The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

  AND

  to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

  All of Obama’s political capital is key

  Philly 9/8 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

  The solution is to pump more money into

  AND

  the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

  Beating GOP on payroll tax key to election

  AP 10/12 (“Clash over economy sets tone for 2012 election,” http://goo.gl/qSUTs)

  Obama had been campaigning for the bill,

  AND

  bill and seek passage of its component parts.

  Obama reelection only way to solve warming

  Lewis 9/11 (Laurence Lewis, “Climate change and 2012: The Republican war with scientific reality,” Daily Kos, google)

  The Republicans are climate deniers. In scientific

  AND

  are in a paradigm where science doesn't exist.

  Extinction

  Tickell 2008 (Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

  We need to get prepared for four degrees

  AND

  be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.

  
  
• 
  
  

Yemen - Saudi Diplomacy CP

• Tournament: Wake | Round: 1 | Opponent: Gonzaga DH | Judge: Brovero
  
  

• The United States Federal Government should diplomatically engage Saudi Arabia to substantially increase support for civil military support for capacity, transparency, and oversight of local government institutions in yemen. Relevant United States agencies should provide all necessary consultative support for such efforts. We’ll clarify.

  The United States Federal Government should not strike Iran and abandon the pre-emptive strike doctrine.

  CP solves better – they’d say yes – Plan causes massive anti-US backlash

  Peter Knoetgne (Central European Journal of International & Security Studies) May 2011“Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”

  http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

  To create an effective Yemeni security apparatus,

  AND

  bombings) that would only further AQAP’s cause.

  Only the CP’s use of third party diplomacy solves – aff is insufficient – Yemen says yes

  Peter Knoetgne (Central European Journal of International & Security Studies) May 2011“Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”

  http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

  While it may not seem as quick or

  AND

  efforts will produce negligible long-term results.

  USC Version - rd 2

  1NC CP

  The United States Federal Government should abandon the policy of repatriating captured Yemenis held at Guantanamo Bay.

  The United States Federal Government should discreetly engage Saudi Arabia and push for them to invest 447 million dollars in Yemeni economic development including government infrastructure and unemployment compensation.  The push should also include requests for increased intelligence cooperation through Saudi tribal linkages to oust AQAP members.

  Engaging the Saudis over economic assistance now – but pressuring for an increase in 447 million for economic assistance to solves – Empirically they’ll say yes

  The National December 22, 2011 “GCC can play a role in averting Yemen's crisis” http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/gcc-can-play-a-role-in-averting-yemens-crisis

  Yemen, again, is at a crossroads

  AND

  the train wreck that some are now predicting.

  Abandoning repatriation and expanding coordination with Saudi Arabia over economic development and tribal leverage is key

  James Phillips (Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation) January 2010 “Yemen and the Resurgent Al-Qaeda Threat” http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=11903&pageid=&pagename=

  Washington should also work with allies such as

  AND

  with other allies can help diminish the threat.

  USC Version - Rd 2

  Saudis control the tribal puppet strings in Yemen – they have to make the call – only the CP solves

  Stratfor March 21, 2011 “Yemen in Crisis: A Special Report” http://americankafir.com/2011/03/21/yemen-in-crisis-a-special-report/

  If the army is the first pillar underpinning

  AND

  the army and tribal landscape are already split.

  CP key to get Saudis to aid instead of meddle – they have links to the most influential tribes

  Nick Amies (writer for MSN News) June  7, 2011 “Saudi Arabia could play influential role in shaping Yemen's future” http://arabia.msn.com/news/world/dw/2011/june/6446007/saudi-arabia-could-play-influential-role-shaping-yemens.aspx

  Saudi Arabia's influence and connections in Yemen don't

  AND

  economic development in all areas of the country."

  Comparatively the CP solves better

  Boucek 2011 (Christopher, an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa, “Higher Stakes in Yemen,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 14, )

  Saudi Arabia is Yemen’s biggest foreign aid donor

  AND

  and a Yemen that is stable and secure.

  Saudis control the tribal puppet strings in Yemen – they have to make the call – only the CP solves

  Stratfor March 21, 2011 “Yemen in Crisis: A Special Report” http://americankafir.com/2011/03/21/yemen-in-crisis-a-special-report/

  If the army is the first pillar underpinning

  AND

  the army and tribal landscape are already split.

  CP key to get Saudis to aid instead of meddle – they have links to the most influential tribes

  Nick Amies (writer for MSN News) June  7, 2011 “Saudi Arabia could play influential role in shaping Yemen's future” http://arabia.msn.com/news/world/dw/2011/june/6446007/saudi-arabia-could-play-influential-role-shaping-yemens.aspx

  Saudi Arabia's influence and connections in Yemen don't

  AND

  economic development in all areas of the country."

  Comparatively the CP solves better

  Boucek 2011 (Christopher, an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa, “Higher Stakes in Yemen,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 14, )

  Saudi Arabia is Yemen’s biggest foreign aid donor

  AND

  and a Yemen that is stable and secure.

  
  
• 
  
  

Yemen - AQAP

• Tournament: USC | Round: 2 | Opponent: UNLV BV | Judge: Repko
  
  

• Case – AQAP

  Plan is worthless – they can only take out small time AQAP rings not the key leaders – the counterplans transitional government engagement is key to solve – the plans indiscriminate tribal approach is the only risk of your advantage

  James Spencer (a retired infantry commander who specialised in low intensity conflict. He is astrategic analyst on political, security and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa anda specialist on Yemen) August 19, 2011 “AL-QA’IDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: MOs &DEDUCTIONS” http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:yvJRLSh9P48J:smallwarsjournal.com/sites/default/files/839-spencer.pdf+&hl=en&gl=us

  The reality of tribal activity in Yemen is

  AND

  the inappropriate or indiscriminate interference of external parties.

  Al Qaeda is falling apart – no chance they have nukes or can carry out large-scale foreign attacks

  John Mueller (Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University) August 2, 2011 “The Truth About al Qaeda” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show

  In the wake of the killing of Osama

  AND

  year, even with 9/11 included.

   

  AQAP not a threat – its all political posturing

  James Spencer (Retired British Infantry, Strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen) June 8, 2011 “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants”

  Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the West's chief

  AND

  behind U.S. support for Yemen.

  No impact

  Jeb Boone (journalist based in Yemen. Has contributed to the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, Time Magazine, Foreign Policy, the Christian Science Monitor, the Guardian, the Independent, the Sunday Telegraph, and Global Post.” May 2011 “Yemen: the new front line in the war for Obama’s second term” http://jebboone.com/2011/05/07/yemen-the-new-front-line-in-the-war-for-obamas-second-term/

  However, contrary to popular belief, AQAP

  AND

  really don’t take much skill to pull off.

   

  No public pressure for retaliation – studies conclude there would be no freak out

  Stephen M. Maurer (adjunct associate professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy and the Boalt Law School at the University of California, Berkeley) Winter 2010 “Using University Knowledge to Defend the Country” http://www.issues.org/26.2/p_maurer.html

  Managing public behavior after a WMD attack.

  AND

  hunches to science,” their frustration seems palpable.

  Bioterrorism is exaggerated – wont cause extinction

  Arms Control Center, 2010 (Scientists Working Group on Biological and Chemical Weapons, report in response to the Graham-Talent Commission report on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Biological threats: a matter of balance” January 26, google)

  • The bioterrorist threat has been greatly exaggerated

  AND

  skewed the outcomes towards inflated and unlikely results.

   

   

  No Impact– average death in all meltdowns is 400 deaths

  Cohen, no date (Bernard L, Prof at the U of Pittsburgh.  “Risks of Nuclear Power” http://physics.isu.edu/radinf/np-risk.htm)

  Risks from reactor accidents are estimated by the

  AND

  power to be as dangerous as coal burning.

   

  Chernobyl was as bad as a meltdown could be – and it resulted in a very small death toll.

  Zbigniew Jaworowski  Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection -

  AND

   

  This was the worst possible catastrophe of a

  AND

  power is a safe means of energy production.

  
  
• 
  
  

Yemen - Tribes

• Tournament: USC | Round: 2 | Opponent: UNLV BV | Judge: Repko
  
  

• No data to back up causality – takes out solvency

  Robert E. Mitchell (earned degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program, and Columbia (Sociology), has been an academic in the US and overseas, a Foreign Service Officer with USAID (including a tour in Yemen in the late 1980s), consultant on various international challenges, and published widely on a variety of topics (most recently in MIT's Journal of Interdisciplinary History) August 2011 “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,”

  The current country strategy lists numerous ―illustrative

  AND

  . These are well-intentioned hypothetical aspirations.

  Plan has ZERO effect – your authors gloss over key structural factors that make aid meaningless

  Anthony Cordesman (Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS) January 2010 "The True Lessons of Yemen and Detroit: How the US Must Expand and Redefine International Cooperation in Fighting Terrorism," Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 25, csis.org/files/publication/100125_Terrorism-USRoleIntCoopRev.pdf)

  Yemen is a case in point. US

  AND

  any practical combination of counter terrorism and aid.

   

  Tribal engagement through democracy assistance fails – multiple reasons

  -          Lack of institutional learning

  -          No fact checking

  -          Charge of impartiality and favoritism between tribes

  -          Kiss of death b/c of US assistancea

  -          Over-focus on terrorism related issues

  Burke 2010 (Edward, associate researcher at FRIDE, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” FRIDE, European think tank for global action, May, www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf )

  A major donor weakness identified by interviewees was

  AND

  the President, rather than being independent entities.

   

  Tribal engagement ensures faulty intelligence – they would manipulate intelligence for their own political ends

  Michael Horton (Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa) January 2011 “The Tribes of Yemen: An Asset or Impediment to Stability? Part Two” http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37388&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=26&cHash=c435b1a3f7

  The US's efforts to combat an emergent AQAP

  AND

  own efforts to recruit and expand in Yemen.

  Empirically local intelligence has been manipulated into carrying out political hits – the plan functionally gives tribes control over our military to ramp up instability

  Adam Martin (writer for the Atlantic Wire) December 29, 2011 “As Saleh Prepares a U.S. Visit, Officials Say He 'Played' Them” http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/12/saleh-prepares-us-visit-officials-say-he-played-them/46771/

  At least some U.S. officials

  AND

  one participant in high-level administration discussions."

   

  
  
• 
  
  

T Primary Purpose - TRCs

• Tournament: USC | Round: 5 | Opponent: Northwestern MW | Judge: Klante
  
  

• the phrase ‘truth and reconciliation commission” is a term of art – the plan just promotes the generic concepts of ‘truth’ and ‘reconciliation’

  Tessa V. Capeloto (represents clients in a variety of international trade matters, including antidumping and countervailing duty investigations, Pacific Rim Law & Policy Journal) 2008 “RECONCILIATION IN THE WAKE OF TRAGEDY: CAMBODIA’S EXTRAORDINARY CHAMBERS UNDERMINES THE CAMBODIAN CONSTITUTION” http://digital.law.washington.edu/dspace-law/bitstream/handle/1773.1/567/17PacRimLPolyJ103.pdf?sequence=1

    “Truth and reconciliation commission” is

  AND

  that denotes a particular institution of transitional justice.

  Just supporting the content of ‘truth’ and ‘reconciliation’ implies involvement in the criminal investigations themselves – not simply the democratic act of lending support to logistically establish the commission

  NUAPP (Northern Uganda Advocacy Partnership for Peace) February 2009 http://www.c-r.org/our-work/uganda/documents/NUAPP_Statement_Feb_09-web.pdf

  Despite the collapse of trust, and the

  AND

  justice and their interface with the states' judicial system

  Truth and reconciliation commissions unlimit the topic- anything goes

  Kevin Avruch and Beatriz Vejarano The Online Journal of Peace and Conflict Resolution 4.2: 37-76 (2002) “Truth and Reconciliation Commissions: A Review Essay and Annotated Bibliography” http://humiliationstudies.org/documents/AvruchTRC.pdf

  In a world in which it is yet

  AND

  ‘truth is not always good to say’.”

  
  
• 
  
  

TRC Neg - Libya

• Tournament: USC | Round: 4 | Opponent: Northwestern MW | Judge: Klante
  
  

• The plan cannot alter the method used by the United States to use its newfound influence – only a risk of offense

  Alexander Nicoll (Director of Editorial at The International Institute for Strategic Studies) September 9, 2011 “Leading from behind? Not so much” http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-voices/?blogpost=236

  The phrase ‘leading from behind’ has been

  AND

  knows. But it’s a worrisome question.’

   

  Say no – NTC will accommodate militiamen and reject reconciliation

  Tony Karon 1-4-12 In Post-Gaddafi Libya, Freedom is Messy—and Getting Messier

  Read more:

  The problem, of course, was that

  AND

  , the NTC is forced to accommodate them.

  Their say yes args are window-dressing – they will demand to know where Ghaddafi is buried – inflames tensions

  GhanaMMA, Dec 25 2011 http://www.ghanamma.com/2011/12/anger-simmers-in-libya-forgotten-town-sirte/

  Libya’s new governing bodies have said post-

  AND

  to fuel resentment among Libyans in other cities.

  Not enough data to perform a truth and reconciliation comission – ensures failure

  Refugees International.org, Tue, 11/08/ - 14:32 Libya’s Unchecked Militias May Derail Reconciliation2011 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/press-room/press-release/libya%E2%80%99s-unchecked-militias-may-derail-reconciliation

  A further problem the NTC faces is a

  AND

  allegations of casualties caused by NATO air strikes.”

  This flips the entire aff – status quo is lesser of two evils

  Hayner, ‘1 [Priscilla B. Hayner, Director, “Unspeakable Truths: confronting state terror and atrocity”, google books, p. 202]

  Yet even where there is no expressed interest

  AND

  this danger is should be treated with respect.

   

   

   

  Util is good and doesn’t devalue life

  Richard L. Revesz (Dean and Lawrence King Professor of Law at New York University School of Law, JD Yale Law School) and Michael A Livermore. (JD NYU School of Law, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, and Managing director of the NYU Law Review). Retaking Rationality How Cots-Benefit Analysis Can Better protect the Environment and Our Health. 2008. P. 1-4.

  Governmental decisions are also fundamentally different from personal

  AND

  act effectively to bring about a better world.

   

  Predictions are inevitable and good

  George Friedman (founder of Stratfor) May 2008 “The Love of One’s Own and the Importance of Place” Stratfor

  Forecasting is built into the human condition.

  AND

  if the world were to some degree predictable.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Libya CP

• Tournament: USC | Round: 4 | Opponent: Northwestern MW | Judge: Klante
  
  

• Affirm United States Federal Government support for truth and reconciliation for Tripolitania, Fezzan, and Cyrenaica.

  The United States Federal Government should release all information it has about the Tripolitania, Fezzan, and Cyrenaica invasion and encourage the Tripolitanian, Fezzanian, and Cyrenaican government to establish its own truth and reconciliation commission.

  The United States Federal Government will abandon the politics of vengeance.

  The term Libya supports the colonialist idea of nations which does real violence and makes genocide of the other inevitable-use of the local name key to resist oppression.

  MEGALOMMATIS 2010 (Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis, PhD, “Fake Sudan (Real Ethiopia) and Fake Ethiopia (Real Abyssinia): what is at stake?” American Chronicle, Feb 16, http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/141807)

  As it happens with the attraction of foreign

  AND

  i.e. today´s Sudan.

   

  The CP is the same area that the plan affects

  MUHAMMOD 11, Salem, “Ghost of King Idris Fighting Gaddafi in Libya,” Middle East Newswire, Feb 22, 2011 http://www.mideastnewswire.com/idris-gaddafi

  To understand what is going on in Libya

  AND

  areas don’t really like each other so much.

  
  
• 
  
  

USC cites doubles

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1nc t

   

  A. “Democracy assistance” is a transfer.

  Lappin, 2010 (Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon and Romania, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (CEJISS), Prague, Czech Republic, “ What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation” google)

  Democracy assistance can be most ….a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

  B. The plan is not topical:

  Support means “approval,” which is not a transfer.

  Collins English Dictionary, 2003 (online)

  Support (n): the act or process of supporting

  Support (v): to give approval to (a cause, principle, etc.)

  C. Topicality is a voting issue:

  1. Limits: prefer an interpretation that forces the plan into a democracy mechanism—neutral gestures like ‘Obama giving a thumbs up’ explode the topic.

  Burnell, 2000

  Peter Burnell (Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, United Kingdom) 2000 “Democracy Assistance:  International Cooperation for Democratization”

  All things considered, it follows …answers to questions such as these

  2. Bi-directionality—the object of the plan is topically relevant, but the plan allows anything to “SUPPORT” it. The plan could first strike autocratic groups, rig the legislature in favor of democratic groups, etc.

  3. It’s a basic AFF burden that protects competitive equity.

  1nc mcc cp

   

  The Millennium Challenge Corporation should take all steps necessary to expand funding eligibility to non-governmental organizations seeking to promote democracy in Libya , including sufficiently lowering indicator requirements to account for a smaller scale of measurement.  The Millennium Challenge Corporation should propose and advocate sub-national compacts with eligible NGOs through their Threshold Program.  This compact should include support for democratic governance for the Libyan National Transitional Council.

  MCC funding eligibility should be expanded to democracy NGO’s

  Thomas I. Palley (Director, Globalization Reform Project Open Society Institute) January 2003 “The Millennium Challenge Accounts: Elevating the Significance of Democracy as a Qualifying Criterion” http://www.opensocietypolicycenter.org/pub/doc_26/mca_proposal.pdf

  Just as democratic considerations should ….government can prevent such practices.

  MCC solves shortcomings of democracy Assistance – comparatively solves better

  michael a. cohen and maria figueroa küpçü (New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute) 2009 “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf

  Consolidating development and democracy …development of democratic institutions.

  They’ll say yes – Studies prove

  Doug Johnson (Harvard Kennedy School of Government) and Tristan Zajonc (Public Policy PhD Candidate Institute for Quantitative Social Science (K320) John F. Kennedy School of Government) April 2006 “Can Foreign Aid Create an Incentive for Good Governance?

  Evidence from the Millennium Challenge Corporation” http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~tzajonc/mcc_wp_apr06.pdf

  Even though the MCC is still in its infancy, we find …results suggest that the MCC incentive effect is real.

  1nc uk cp

   

  Text: The United Kingdom should provide necessary support to train a civilian police force in Libya.

  The United States Federal Government should negotiate the release of detainees in Iraq, close Guantanamo, and stop remanding terror suspects to countries with poor human rights records.

  Flaunting international law on detentions violates international law, which in turn guts our ability to win the war on terrorism

   Carl Tobias, Williams Professor, University of Richmond School of Law, “22^nd Annual Edward V. Sparer Symposium: Terrorism and the Constitution: Civil Liberties in a New America: Punishment and the War on Terrorism,” UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA JOURNAL OF CONSTITUTIONAL LAW v. 6, May 2004, p. 1147-1148.

  However, compliance with the letter of …of United States governmental actions.

  Guantanamo fuels anti-Americanism and strengthens our enemies

  USA TODAY, “Address Guantanamo Abuses,” December 20, 2004, p. 14A.

  But the government's hard-line …approach to handling prisoners.

   

  1nc politics

  Payroll tax holiday extension now- Conference committee will succeed- Obama empirically forces compromise

  Chaddock 12/28 (Gail Chaddock, “Handling of payroll tax hurts Congress' approval rating,” CSM, http://goo.gl/n7C61)

  A key sticking point is how to pay for the $100 billion … in good faith, this can be resolved rather easily.”

   

  Plan costs political capital- Causes huge spending fights

  Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

  The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid …in foreign countries."

  All of Obama’s political capital is key to final deal- Key to negotiating funding offsets

  Philly 2011 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

  The solution is to pump more money into the economy to get it ….the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

  Extension key to prevent double dip, consumer spending key- Link independently collapses consumer confidence

  Hill 12/28 (Patrice Hill, Washington Times, “Economists fear withdrawal symptoms if payroll-tax cut vanishes,” http://goo.gl/Uxdo2)

  But the added spending power and support for …matters affecting the economy, he said.

  Nuclear war

  Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 2008  [Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” ]

  Then there are the dolorous consequences of a …travails with external adventures.

   

   

  1nc terror adv

   

  AQIM not linked to Al Qaeda central – their concerns are local and contextualized

  Fawaz Gerges (Professor of International Relations, London School of Economics) January 3, 2012 “The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda: Debunking the Terrorism Narrative “ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fawaz-gerges/the-rise-and-fall-of-alqa_b_1182003.html

  Myth Four: While Al-Qaeda Central has suffered a defeat …among the inner sanctum of Al-Qaeda Central.

   No nuclear terrorism –statistically insignificant cumulative probability

  John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p, 187-190

  Assigning a probability that terrorists …than they were 10 or ~, .-s 15 years ago.19

   

  Not an existential threat – no overreaction

  John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 232

  From this perspective, then, rhetorical …unintentional cheerleaders among their distant enemies.

  No extinction

  Space.Com 2001 (30 October, http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/generalscience/colonize_now_011030-1.html)

  Many scientists argue that there is no need …hitting the planet," Croddy said.

  Bioterrorism impossible – multiple hurdles

  Jacqueline Simon, former member, SIPRI Chemcial and Biological Warfare Project, “Implications of the Terror Attacks for the BWC,” INESAP INFORMATION BULLETIN n. 19, March 2002, pp. 4-7.

  The threat posed by chemical and biological weapons …them unattractive to many militaries and terrorist organizations

   

   

  1nc iran adv

   

  Offense can only go one direction – failing in Libya wont hurt credibility

  Tony Karon (Senior Editor of Time Magazine) March 28, 2011 “Obama, Gaddafi and American Credibility” http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/03/28/obama-gaddafi-and-american-credibility/

  Flash forward three decades, and we find the President of the …best part of a decade long ago revealed the limits of American power.

  Credibility theory is false – but we still access our offense

  Christopher J. Fettweis (assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, Ph.D. University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics, University of Notre Dame) 2010 “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy” April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82

  For individuals as well as states, …how small the issue or large the odds.

   

   

  Plan will be oversold and pushed aggressively by the US

  Thomas Carothers (vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Middle East Program, and Carnegie Europe; He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program) February 2009 “Democracy Promotion under Obama: Finding a Way Forward,” Policy Brief 77, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

   First, President Obama’s basic approach to …influential ally of democracy around the world

  Turns the whole aff

  Madeline Albright et al (Vin Weber, Steven Cook, Gregory Gause III, Larry Diamond, Joshua Muravchik, and others) 2005 “In Support of Arab Democracy: Why and How?” Google Books

  U.S. support for democracy in the Arab world marks …the recommendations contained in this report.

   

  Regional credibility causes OVERWHELMING Israel pressure

  Jonathan Spyer (Research  Fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, Herzliya, Israel) 2007 “Israel and the Iraq Study Group Report” Strategic Insights, Volume VI, Issue 2 (March 2007) http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/publications/OnlineJournal/2007/Mar/spyerMar07.html

  As the date drew near for the publication of the report …will be the result. Thus far the conservative realist assumption.

  Global nuclear war

  Roberta D. Tate, pub. date: 9-15-2002, MA Srategic Intellegence American Military University in Manassas Virginian; Project Analyst, “The Cold War Era (1946-1991),” Bobbi's Political Space,

  I honestly believe that the posturing to end the state …and Russia. What a tangled web we weave.

   

  Plan causes Saudi pressure that sparks internal crisis

  Nick Amies (freelancer for a number of publications, works for DW-WORLD's English team) April 2011 “A perfect storm of various problems could threaten Saudi rulers” http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14889863,00.html

  The House of Saud has often ruled with an …and their domestic publics."

  Crushes the global economy

  Gal Luft (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) February 2011 “What if Saudi Arabia Erupts?”

  If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren, …in the world market, this could not insulate the U.S. economy from high oil prices.

   

  Iran’s regional hegemony will crumble now – Plan emboldens them – flips the whole aff

  Vali Nasr (professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University) November 2, 2011 “Why Contain Iran When Its Own Aims Will Do Just That?: Vali Nasr” http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/01/bloomberg_articlesLTY3421A1I4H.DTL

  Iran is once again in America's cross hairs. Even before the allegations ……

   when the U.S. military absorbed resentments in the region.

   

   

   

   

  1nc stability

   

  No spillover

  BY ROSA WILD 22 NOVEMBER 2011 “Algeria: To Love Thy Neighbour?” Think Africa Press, Online

  Why has Algeria not followed its neighbours into the “Arab Spring”? …the lifting of the country’s State of Emergency and increased salaries.

   

   

  2nc iran

   

  Overselling turn

  Ensures the plan is perceived as meddling – causes blowback – strengthens extremists and hardliners

  Fran Belisle, prof. of polisci at Coastal Carolina University, 1/31/2011 responding to “W&M prof among 100 academics signing letter to Obama,”, http://www.vagazette.com/articles/2011/02/02/news/doc4d46a9084013b376808385.txt

  While democratic reforms in the Middle …pressure on Mubarak to resign.

   

   

  2nc israel da

   

  Israel lashout is bigger, faster, and controls the direction of every impact

  Da is perception based – intervening actors solve – timeframe outweighs – you can only die once

  Relations sufficient to solve all wars

  Daniel Ayalon, pub. date: 8-30-2005,  Israeli Ambassador to the United States, "The Day after disengagement: what's next for Israel and the Middle East?," Federal News Service. Lexis Nexis

  So I think -- and from my vantage point here …peaceful moves to the -- in the future.

  Independently collapses external perceptions of Israeli deterrence

  Shmuel Bar (director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy) April 2011 “America’s Fading Middle East Influence” http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161

  By distancing itself from Israel and by lowering its …on that of the United States.

  Causes nuclear war

  J.D. Longstreet (US Army Veteren, 30 years of broadcasting experience, reporter for several newspapers, Constributing Editor to Family Security Matters) April 7, 2011 “Israels Sampson Options” http://www.thejerusalemconnection.us/blog/2011/04/07/israels-samson-option.html

  If, while watching the disturbing events in the …that Israel’s big brother is back by her side.

  Israeli deterrence solves Iran

  Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU “The war of perception” 8-17=2006 Turkish Weekly, Online

  Regardless of how and when the guns fall silent, ….the opportunity of reaching peaceful accommodation.

  Turns terrorism – more likely to attack Israel if they think the US is supporting Arabs in the region

   

  2NC Link Wall

  Plan causes a shift in US policy towards Israel – the US self-consciously pressures Israel for concessions to live up to its newfound Arab credibility – causes a wave of anti-Israel policy shifts

  Plan signals that the US will support democracy worldwide

  Puccia 2011 (Marco Puccia, March 29, 2011, "Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East,” Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, google)

  As revolutionary movements steamroll across the... It is certainly not a time to be rash. 

  2NR Cards

  Causes Israeli freakout- They think Arab democracy is an existential threat

  Byman 2011 (Daniel Byman, Professor at Georgetown, Summer 2011, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring,” Washington Quarterly, google)

  In the past, Israel used the lack of democracy …outside the mainstream of their societies.

  Causes Israeli belligerance

  Jerome Corsi, pub. date: 7-19-2006,  "Codi, Stay Home." World Net Daily,

  The United States can exert strong-arm pressure on… including President Bush, thinks or says.

  Saudi

   

  2nc saudi

   

  Econ collapse turns the aff

  Ikhwan Web November 2008 “Seismic’ economic shifts challenging democracy assistance” http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=18656

  The Economist Intelligence Unit recently highlighted the …and carefully contextualised.”

   

  2NC Link Wall

  The Sahwa tribes are key – they’ll exploit the opening – overwhelms regime resilience

  Stephane Lacroix (Assistant Professor of Political Science at Sciences Po, associate fellow at the Kuwait Program, Ph.D. Stanford) June 2, 2011 “Saudi Islamists and the potential for protest” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/02/saudi_islamists_and_the_potential_for_protest

  Saudi Arabia has remained fairly quiet during the recent …of the Arab world

   

  at: nato addon

   

  NATO collapse doesn’t cause war.

  Conry ’95 (Barbara, Foreign Policy Analyst – Cato, Cato Policy Analysis, “The Western European Union as NATO’s Successor”, 9-18, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-239.html)

  Europe after NATO: Bogus Nightmare …and, indirectly, American interests.

   

  NATO resilient.

  Trueblood ’04 (Tad, National Security Analyst and Fmr Military Officer with 20 Years Experience, “Not Your Father’s NATO”, 4-1, http://www.southernutah.com/Articles/World_Affairs/Document.2004-04-01.2317)

  Not your father's NATO Last …your father’s NATO anymore.

   

  2nc stability

  No risk of instability spillover to Algeria- seriously

  William Bauer worked in Libya with a regional consultancy firm until February 2011. William has worked in the Gulf and North-African region for years. “Algeria's Springtime Silence”

  25 DECEMBER 2011 Online

  The Arab Spring has caused great turbulence, …reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

  No spillover

  BY ROSA WILD 22 NOVEMBER 2011 “Algeria: To Love Thy Neighbour?” Think Africa Press, Online

  Why has Algeria not followed its neighbours into the “Arab Spring”? During the initial wave of uprisings in February, it seemed ripe; protests took place on its streets in tandem with those in Egypt and Tunisia, and president Bouteflika was picked out by Time as one of the world’s “top ten autocrats in trouble.” The country did indeed seem a candidate for another uprising, with high unemployment and low levels of political freedom. Yet no single protest has attracted more than a few thousand people. This is often put down to fear and exhaustion – Algeria is still recovering from the trauma of a civil war between democratically elected Islamist parties and the military, in which up to 200,000 people were killed and entire villages were wiped out. Their experience of democracy has left them cautious and cynical. Egypt, Tunisia and Libya had autocratic leaderships where a single figurehead president’s departure has been called a revolution; Bouteflika holds far less power as an individual than Mubarak, Ben Ali, or Gaddafi ever did. And he has responded to the threat of an uprising more shrewdly than they did, with heavy policing matched by immediate concessions, such as the lifting of the country’s State of Emergency and increased salaries.

   

  Libya stable now – transition and formation of a new government occurring now – checks extremism

  IINA, 11/13 [“Libya/Islam-Politics: Libya Interim Leader says no Place for Extremist Islam,” November 13, 2011]

  TRIPOLI (Libya) 17 Dhul Hijja/13 Nov.(IINA)-Libya won’t turn into an extremist Islamic country, its interim leader assured the European Union’s top diplomat on Saturday, adding that the formation of a new government of experts is to be completed in the coming week.

   

  Too late – Al Qaeda has already acquired weapons and the plan does not secure weapons depots

  Hurriyet Daily News, 11/10 [“‘Al-Qaeda acquires Gadhafi’s weapons’,” November 10, 2011]

  Al-Qaeda’s North Africa franchise .. have not been properly secured,” he said.

  2nc terrorism

   

  Cant build one

  John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 173-4

  Some observers have insisted that it would be "easy" for …

  require special machining technology.4

  No public pressure for retaliation – studies conclude there would be no freak out

  Stephen M. Maurer (adjunct associate professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy and the Boalt Law School at the University of California, Berkeley) Winter 2010 “Using University Knowledge to Defend the Country” http://www.issues.org/26.2/p_maurer.html

  Managing public behavior after a WMD attack. Washington …their frustration seems palpable.

   

   

   

  1nr politics

   

   

  1nr politics

  And, they’ve conceded that extending the tax holiday is key to consumer confidence- Key to trust in govt focusing on recovery- Independently tanks the economy

  Yuma Sun 1/1 (“Confidence of consumers good news for nation,” http://goo.gl/mSfsr)

  Economists have been saying for a long time that …the economic downturn behind us.

   

  A- Expiration kills recovery

  Jacobs 9/8 (Elisabeth Jacobs, senior fellow Brookings, “President Obama's Speech Powerful, In Style and Substance,” google)

  In a forceful speech to Congress this evening, President …the added benefit of creating jobs in the process.

  C- Business confidence

  McLenaghan 9/22 (Ed McLenaghan, “Proposed Employee Payroll Tax Holiday Would Provide Big Boost to NC’s Struggling Economy,” Progressive Pulse, google

  The proposed payroll tax holiday …recovery for North Carolinians.

   

  US key to the global economy

  David Caploe (the CEO of the Singapore-incorporated American Centre for Applied Liberal Arts and Humanities in Asia) April 2009 “Focus Still on America to Lead Global Recovery” Online

  While superficially sensible, this view is …going to have to be solved there too.\

   

  Benen is wrong- Extension isn’t assured but momentum is neg

  Dayen 1/2 (David Dayen, “The Myth of the Actually Negotiating Conference Committee,” Firedog Lake, http://goo.gl/q9q0x)

  Steve Benen thinks that the payroll tax …a conference committee decision.

  Obama will muscle through a one year payroll tax extension now- Maintaining political leverage is key

  Pace 12/23 (Julie Pace, “Obama on Political High, but Momentum Hard to Keep,” ABC News, http://goo.gl/N6Z0J)

  On a political high, President Barack Obama capped a …at which he won't go farther."

   

  Republicans will cede payroll tax to Obama now unless something controversial enflames them- Derails the deal

  Beutler 12/29 (Brian Beutler, “What Boehner Faces In 2012 After Payroll Tax Debacle,” TPMDC, http://goo.gl/jEFsI)

  In the immediate aftermath of the GOP’s payroll …says. “[But] I doubt that’s going to happen.”

  Finish line- Issues don’t cost PC until a vote is imminent- Make them cite a bill

  Drum 2010  (Kevin Drum, Political Blogger, Mother Jones, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner)

  Not to pick on Ezra or anything, but this attitude …people's minds." Maybe not. But they will be soon.

   

  Appointments will help Obama in the payroll tax cuts – helping generate pressure on republicans for failing to deal with economy

  Dan Rivoli, 1-4-12 http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/276628/20120105/obama-s-consumer-watchdog-appointment-pay-political.htm

  While Republicans are no fans of …crisis since the Great Depression.

   

  Doesn’t non-unique the link- Omnibus didn’t increase aid, was shielded by other issues, wasn’t for topic countries and was pushed by one Congressman

  Rubin 12/27 (Jennifer Rubin, “U.S. foreign aid done right,” Washington Post, http://goo.gl/6w5hM)

  As a rule, omnibus spending bills are a bad …right, we should give ample credit.

   

  Funding TNC is unpopular—Legal roadblocks ensure big fight

  Gibril 2011 (Dr. Mahmoud Gibril, Interim Prime Minister of the Transitional National Council of Libya, interview at the Brookings Institute, May 12, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2011/0512_libya/20110512_libya.pdf)

  Thank you of raising this question. Honestly, this is a …of solving this problem. 

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

1NC vs Wake BC Pitt RR rd 3

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Turkey Forum 1NC

  Text: The United States Federal Government should propose to the Republic of Turkey the establishment of an ongoing high-level diplomatic commission to coordinate policy towards Syria through increased assistance for political organization capacity to the Syrian National Council. The United States Federal Government should inform the Republic of Turkey of its intention to take a secondary support role. The United States Secretary of State should implement the commission’s recommendations.

  US-Turkey forum solves and is key to maturation of strategic partnership

  Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

  Turkey solves Syria better – US action causes backlash

  Walker 2011 (Joshua W. Walker, postdoctoral fellow at the Crown Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Brandeis University and a research fellow at the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School, May 2011 “Syria is Turkey's Litmus Test in the New Middle East,” google)

  CP alone key- Integrating Turkish leadership into coordinated Arab Spring policy key to partnership and prevents Turkish adventurism

  Ülgen 2011 (Sinan Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, “From Inspiration to Aspiration,” http://goo.gl/93UXg)

  Strategic partnership solves global instability, terrorism, prolif, and disease

  Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

   

  1NC Politics DA

  Agreement coming on PTC extension – Dems have high ground and Republicans motivated to act because of strength of position.

  David Dayen Wednesday January 18, 2012 8:30 am Payroll Tax/UI Bill: Haggling Over Pay-Fors

  http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/01/18/payroll-taxui-bill-haggling-over-pay-fors/

   

  Plan costs political capital- Causes huge spending fights

  Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

  All of Obama’s political capital is key to final deal- Key to negotiating funding offsets

  Philly 2011 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

  Extension key to prevent double dip, consumer spending key- Link independently collapses consumer confidence

  Hill 12/28 (Patrice Hill, Washington Times, “Economists fear withdrawal symptoms if payroll-tax cut vanishes,” http://goo.gl/Uxdo2)

  Nuclear war

  Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 2008  [Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]

  .

   

  1NC China Relations DA

  US pragmatism is preserving the Saudi relationship—the plan alters the Middle East strategy, violating the deal with Riyadh

  Escobar, 11-2

  Pepe Escobar, Asia Times Online, “The Pentagon-Arab Spring love story” 2011 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MK02Ak01.html

  Plan causes backlash

  DemDigest August 11, 2011 “Internal rifts, external pressure hurting Assad regime?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/internal-rifts-external-pressure-hurting-assad-regime/

   

  Plan causes US-China oil wars

  Gal Luft (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) in Washington, D.C.) and Anne Korin (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS and the editor of Energy Security) 2004 “The Sino-Saudi Connection” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm

  These escalate globally

  Jim Cabral (teaches international relations and political science in the Social Science Department at Landmark College in Putney, Vt.) August 12, 2010 “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy” http://www.valleyadvocate.com/article.cfm?aid=12165

   

  1NC K

  The aff is a flawed methodological engagement with politics that reproduces dominant epistemological structures of violence surrounding the Middle East and US hegemony  – these constructions are a prior question

  Nir Rosen (former fellow at New York University's Center on Law and Security, syndicated journalist) May 18, 2011 “Western media fraud in the Middle East” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/201151882929682601.html

  Causes serial policy failure and is the most proximate cause of escalatory wars

  Anthony Burke (Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations in the University of New South Wales) 2007 “Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason” Project Muse

  The alternative is to vote negative as a form of rejection of the affirmative scholarship – we as intellectuals have an obligation to hold students to higher standards – each rejection is key – otherwise structural violence is inevitable

  Nancy Scheper-Hughes (Professor of Anthropology at Cal-Berkely) and Philippe Bourgois (Professor of Anthropology at UPenn) 2004 Introduction: Making Sense of Violence, in Violence in War and Peace, pg. 19-22

  This large and at first sight “messy” Part VII is central to this anthology’s thesis. It encompasses everything from the routinized, bureaucratized, and utterly banal violence of children dying of hunger and maternal despair in Northeast Brazil (Scheper-Hughes, Chapter 33) to elderly African Americans dying of heat stroke in Mayor Daly’s version of US apartheid in Chicago’s South Side (Klinenberg, Chapter 38) to the racialized class hatred expressed by British Victorians in their olfactory disgust of the “smelly” working classes (Orwell, Chapter 36).

  Solvency

  Assad wont collapse now – but plan ensures collapse

  Stratfor November 9, 2011 “The Syrian Regime, Under Pressure but Holding” http://www.stratfor.com/node/204419/analysis/20111108-syrian-regime-under-pressure-holding

   

   Fast tracking the Syrian revolution guarantees violent sectarian conflict – must wait for opposition unity and leadership to come together without Western influence.

  Hannah Allam Jewish World Review August 11, 2011 / 11 Menachem-Av, 5771 Despite outcry over

  Fast forwarding the Syrian revolution will cause civil war.  Opposition must be united before the US begins assistance.

  Joshua Landis is the director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma. He is the author of the blog Syria Comment.   Syrians must win the revolution on their own  Posted By Joshua Landis  Tuesday, August 9, 2011

   

  Western involvement delegitimizes the opposition movement

  Posted By Peter Harling, the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group   Tuesday, August 30, 2011 “How not to prolong the Syrian agony” Foreign Policy Magazine, Online

   

  Targeting the SNC causes backlash from opposition members on the ground

  DemDigest 1-9-2012 “Opposition rifts, ‘ineffectual’ Arab League mission sour Syrian transition prospects” Online

   

  Western involvement splits the protesters from the opposition – causes failure of the movement

  Posted By Peter Harling, the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group   Tuesday, August 30, 2011 “How not to prolong the Syrian agony” Foreign Policy Magazine, Online

   

  India Adv

   

  Deterrence prevents India/Pakistan conflict

  Tepperman 2009 (Jonathan Tepperman, Deputy Editor at Newsweek Magazine and former Deputy Managing Editor of Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2009, Newsweek, September 14, 2009, Lexis Academic)

   

  AfghanInstability Inevitable:

  Ethnic and tribal differences, terrain, and latent xenophobia

  Lisa Curtis (Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center) and James Phillips.( (Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) "Revitalizing US Efforts In Afghanistan." Heritage Foundation. 15 Oct. 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/bg2076.cfm

  The governments inability to provide social services is tanking civic support – and causing instability.

  Waliullah Rahmani. "Domestic Factros Driving the Taliban Insurgency." Global Terrorism Analysis. 29 Jun. 2006. http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370049

   

   

  No risk of great power conflict in Central Asia: incentives to de-escalate and stable balance of power

  Zhao Huasheng, director of the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies at Fudan University, February 2005, CEF Quarterly, http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/CEF_Quarterly_Winter_2005.doc.pdf, p. 31

   

  Russia Adv

  Russian influence in Syria is strengthening now – Syrians approve of Russian support

  Moubayed, 1/17 [Sami, “'Russian initiative' to guide Syria?” Gulf News, January 17, 2012, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/russian-initiative-to-guide-syria-1.966843]

  Plan causes massive Russia backlash – causes war

  Paul Craig Roberts (former head of policy at the Department of Treasury) August 1, 2011 “The Road to Armageddon”, http://hamsayeh.net/society/1006-the-road-to-armageddon.html

  Russia opposes US attempts at hastening regime change in Syria

  China Daily 8-19 Russia opposes Western calls for Assad to go

  Updated: 2011-08-19 21:46  http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-08/19/content_13154650.htm

   

  US-Russia war leads to global nuclear war

  Victor Baranets (writer for Defense and Security) July 20, 2007 “Will America Fight Russia?” L/N

   

  No CN/RU war

  Karlin 2010 (Anatoly Karlin, October 17, 2010, Sublime Oblivion, http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2010/10/17/russia-china-no-war/)

   

  No cascade of proliferation – its all alarmist rhetoric

  Muthia Alagappa, pub. date: 2008, Distinguished Senior Fellow, East-West Center, “The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia,” accesed: 1-6-09,  p. 521-2, Google Books

  Robust statistical studies prove prolif does not cause war

  Victor Asal and Kyle Beardsley, pub. date: 2007, Assistant Prof. Pol. Sci. – SUNY Albany, and Kyle Beardsley, Asst. Prof. Pol. Sci. – Emory Univ., Journal of Peace Research, “Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior,” accessed: 12-18-09, http://jpr.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/44/2/139 

  
  
• 
  
  

2NC vs Wake BC Pitt RR rd 3

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

•  

  A2 Do CP

  CP is plan minus- Perm severs US provision of aid, any support role is distinct and less action than the plan

  We can quantify the difference- Secondary support role is delegatory- Completely different action and not substantial

  EU Toolkit 2008 (European Commission, October 2008, “EU Toolkit for the implementation of complementarity and division of labour in development policy,” http://goo.gl/Q5LkR)

  the USFG is the principal of the CP but not the agent- This card also proves that the CP is a distinct policy option in the literature

  Milner and Tingle 2011 (Helen V. Milner and Dustin Tingle, August 2011, “The Choice for Multilateralism: Foreign Aid and American Foreign Policy,” Princeton, http://goo.gl/fsI4T)

  Severs certainty- CP mechanism doesn’t fiat increase or US role- Turkey could say no-Resolved means “to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine (to do something)”- “Should” means  “used to imply obligation or duty”

   

  Resolved- Dictionary.com

  Should- American Heritage

  Severance is a voting issue and never justified- Shifting the plan in the 2AC can eliminate the whole neg strategy. The stable plan is the sole focus of the debate. We test one policy at a time and use it for research and pre-round prep

   

  Inevitable- Libya and War on Terror prove

  Rothkopf 10/20 (David Rothkopf, October 20, 2011, “The Obama Doctrine and the death of Qaddafi,” Foreign Policy, http://goo.gl/SBAhz)

   

  A2 “Leading From Behind” Bad- Lit Indict

  “Leading from behind” is a vacuous Neocon catchphrase- Reality concludes neg

  Lobe 2011 (Jim Lobe, foreign policy analyst, September 3, 2011, “US debate over 'leading from behind',” Asia Times, http://goo.gl/A7Pbj)

  Solves their internal link- US initiates forum that directly results in plan action-

  CP solves credibility better- Coordinating regional donors is a bigger internal link, lead and funding aren’t key- Plan causes backlash that turns the case

  Hadley 2011 (Stephen Hadley, Senior Advisor at US Institute for Peace, August 18, 2011)

  Working through Turkey solves best- Unilateral action causes backlash

  Paul and Seyrek 2011 (Amanda Paul, Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre, and Demir Murat Seyrek, independent expert and PhD candidate at the Catholic University of Leuven, July 15, 2011, “Turkish foreign policy and the Arab Spring,” European Policy Centre, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_1322_turkish_foreign_policy_and_the_arab_spring.pdf)

  Engaging with Turkey as an equal partner independently boosts credibility

  Asmus et al 2004 (Ronald D. Asmus, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, “Democracy and Human Development in the Broader Middle East: A Transatlantic Strategy for Partnership,” http://goo.gl/ICxzD)

  Partnership NB Impact 2NC- Laundry List Ext

   

  We’ll impact the laundry list-

  Terrorism

  Ayson 2010 (Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, July 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7)

  Disease

  Steinbruner 1998 (John D Steinbruner, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy)

  CP avoids the link- Engaging with Turkey is popular- Several powerful Congressmen head the Turkey caucus

  Enginsoy 2011 (Umit Enginsoy, April 5, 2011, “Turkish lobby group in US celebrates 10th anniversary,” Hurriyet Daily News, http://goo.gl/6oxgy)

   

  Solvency

  Assad will be stable now – none of your evidence assumes Assads network of regional support for crackdowns including Lebanon, Iran, and Palestinians, and Hezbollah.  They will cut the opposition off entirely from effective organization and resistance. Only external support from the US can change this equation.

  Sanctions wont collapse the regime

  Elias Akleh (Arab writer for Counterpunch) December 21, 2011 “Sanctioning Syria” http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/12/21/sanctioning-syria/

  Assad stable – still has support of key populations including businesspeople and those concerned about Islamist alternatives

  Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0914/Why-many-Syrians-still-support-Assad By a correspondent / September 14, 2011

   

   

  Opposition is getting obliterated now

  FIRST, your evidence is all opposition propoganda

  Stratfor December 14, 2011 “Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort” http://stratfor.com/analysis/missteps-syrian-oppositions-propaganda-effort

  SECOND, control over Lebanon

  Stratfor November 9, 2011 “The Syrian Regime, Under Pressure but Holding” http://www.stratfor.com/node/204419/analysis/20111108-syrian-regime-under-pressure-holding

  FOURTH, widespread collective support for Assad

  Fox News October 27, 2011 “Syrians Stage Another Pro-Regime Rally” http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/10/27/syrians-stage-another-pro-regime-rally/

  SEVENTH, Military Loyalty

  Patrick Seale (leading British writer on the Middle East) January 17^th, 2012 “Can the Assad Regime Survive?” http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=50088

   

   

  Russia Advantage

   

  U.S.-Russian nuclear war, despite its portrayal as “obsolete”, is the most probable impact.

  Andreas Umland, DAAD Lecturer, Shevchenko University, “The Unpopular Prospect of World War III…The 20^th Century is Not Over Yet,” HISTORY NEWS NETWORK, January 17, 2009, http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/60004.html.

   

  Turns case – Russia push back sabotages Syrian transition

  Stratfor November 29, 2007 “Russia a Wrench in US plans for the Middle East”

   

   

  Russia opposes US attempts at hastening regime change in Syria

  
  
• 
  
  

1NR vs Wake BC Pitt RR rd 3

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• NK Add On

  No North Korean war – multiple internal and external factors – your ev is media bias

  Yong Kwon (a Washington-based analyst of international affairs) April 21, 2011 “North Korea: Calculus of an existential war” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MD21Dg02.html

  Politics

  Disad is bigger and faster- Payroll tax holiday is key to prevent quick unraveling of the economy- Causes tax increase in two months, causes extinction before they can solve- Flips try or die, domestic growth is a prerequisite to foreign aid

   

  Makes democratic transitions impossible

  Rubin 2011 (Trudy Rubin, April 17, 2011, “Economy key to Egypt, Tunisia in quest for democracy,” Miami Herald,  http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/17/2170819/economy-key-to-egypt-tunisia-in.html#ixzz1VX4SdWu0)

  Deal coming on PTC extension

  SCOTT WONG | 1/16/12 11:27 PM EST Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html#ixzz1jySbkCMc

   

  1.Kills negative ground-no DA is intrinsic and even if we win the link is, the impact isn’t which kills negative ground because we’re stuck to impact turning the 1AC advantages, leads to 100% aff wins

  2. Politics tests a key opportunity cost real reason most things don’t happen

   

  3 Not predictable: we cant know all the ways the aff can test the DA’s intrinsicness.  Kills truth value because predictability is key to clash and rigorous debate

  3.  Perm dejustifies the rez-its not T means perm isn’t a reason the aff is a good idea, perm goes outside the bounds of the rez means they proved the rez is inadequate to produce a beneficial effect.  Vote neg against the rez

  5.  Aff advantages aren’t intrinsic either means vote neg on presumption

   

  The warrants of their evidence include that the PTC extension doesn’t help unemployed, which is not true because growth is key to hiring decisions and people save more than they spend, which will only get worse if the economy contracts

  Consensus and math go neg

  David Dayen, staff writer, 12-22-2011, “The Economics of the Payroll Tax/UI/Doc Fix Bill,” FDL, http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/12/22/the-economics-of-the-payroll-taxuidoc-fix-bill/

  Now we move to the payroll tax cut, which represents more than half of the cost of the bill, and which has been the source of the controversy

  Most qualified economist agree that EXPIRATION would be devastating for the economy- even if it’s not a short-term boost it prevents shock that causes recession

  Chuck Marr is the Director of Federal Tax Policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities., and Brian Highsmith joined the Center’s Federal Fiscal Policy division in January 2011 as a research assistant.  Prior to joining the Center, Highsmith had interned at the National Economic Council and House Budget Committee.  He holds a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from Furman University. 9-7-2011 http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3572

   

   

  Revival of US economy now and Eurozone problems easing.

  MSN,1-20-12  http://news.in.msn.com/business/equitymaster/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5772103

   

  Worst of the Eurozone crisis  has been passed.  New optimism about investments.

  David Rogers, Eurozone optimism inspires local investors by: David Rogers From: The Australian January 21, 2012 12:00AM http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/eurozone-optimism-inspires-local-investors/story-e6frg916-1226249796431

   

  Evidence actually says that domestic popularity can be key to ability of president to succeed at foreign policy issues.  Also, its not talking about the plan – but rather about using force to protect US interests abroad.

  Foreign policy doesn’t count

  Cohen and Simendinger 2003 (Richard E. Cohen and Alexis Simendinger, March 29, 2003, National Journal “President Bush's Allies Say He Won't Repeat His Father's Mistakes,” google)

   

  Our top of agenda args prove the plan can’t be a win

  Mathews and Todd 2009 (Chris and Todd, political director at NBC, Hardball, June 22, google)

   

   

  1.Kills all CP’s, and those are good, only allowing the negative to have status quo kills negative flexibility and strategy, and counterplans are key to debate fundamentally true affs like racism or sexism is bad

  2.  This interpretation of fiat is arbitrary and self-serving, means its unpredictable which is bad for debate because both sides won’t be researched.

  3.  This has yet to become an argument it is a catch phrase and loaded term, cant explain it later and if they do we get new answers.

  4.  Aff shouldn’t be allowed to gain advantages based on rejecting the aff being bad, makes debate unpredictable and kills fair argumentation.

  5.  C/I Judge is an individual decisionmaker deciding if the aff is good compared to the status quo or a competitive policy option.

   

  Doesn’t non-unique the link- Omnibus didn’t increase aid, was shielded by other issues, wasn’t for topic countries and was pushed by one Congressman

  Rubin 12/27 (Jennifer Rubin, “U.S. foreign aid done right,” Washington Post, http://goo.gl/6w5hM)

   

   

  Presidential success dictates votes –ideology doesn’t outweigh

  Lebo, 2010 (Matthew J. Lebo, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook

   

  All our links still apply – Obama can’t escape blame; but also can’t get wins

  Nicholas and Hook 10. (Peter and Janet, Staff Writers – LA Times, “Obama the Velcro president”, LA Times, 7-30, http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730/3)

  
  
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1NC v. Cal Berk Rd 7 Pitt RR

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1nc

  CP no cuts

  Saud

  Ptx

  T

  CP

  Block

  T

  case D

  Saud

  CP

  2NR

  saud

  The House and Senate should not introduce legislation proposing cuts in foreign aid to Egypt.

  The United States Federal Government should propose to the Republic of Turkey the establishment of an ongoing high-level diplomatic commission to coordinate policy towards Egypt through an offer of military education democracy programming to substantially increase Egyptian participation in military education democracy programming. The United States Federal Government should inform the Republic of Turkey of its intention to take a secondary support role. The United States Secretary of State should implement the commission’s recommendations.

  US-Turkey forum solves and is key to maturation of strategic partnership

  Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

  The United States should propose to Turkey the

  AND

  together to meet current and future security challenges.

  Turkey solves Egyptian military

  Daly 2011 (Sean Daly, associate director of global strategy at Alpha Creative Capital, a New York-based investment advisory group, March 15, 2011, “The Brotherhood’s Big Brother?,” World Policy Blog, google)

  Even some members of the military transitional government

  AND

  a trusted diplomatic interlocutor between East and West.

  CP alone key- Integrating Turkish leadership into coordinated Arab Spring policy key to partnership and prevents Turkish adventurism

  Ülgen 2011 (Sinan Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, “From Inspiration to Aspiration,” http://goo.gl/93UXg)

  Turkey’s Western orientation is also in doubt as

  AND

  in the region and a lasting success story.

  Strategic partnership solves global instability, terrorism, prolif, and disease

  Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

  The history of the U.S.-

  AND

  the challenges of the twenty-first century.

   

  Politics

  Agreement coming on PTC extension – Dems have high ground and Republicans motivated to act because of strength of position.

  David Dayen Wednesday January 18, 2012 8:30 am Payroll Tax/UI Bill: Haggling Over Pay-Fors

  http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/01/18/payroll-taxui-bill-haggling-over-pay-fors/

  In its first day back, Congress held

  AND

  will become clear over the next 72 hours.

   

  Unconditional Military Assistance to Egypt costs political capital – budget pressure and Israel lobby

  Dreyfuss 2011 (Robert, Nation contributing editor, is an investigative journalist in Alexandria, Virginia, specializing in politics and national security, “Egypt, Hamas and Obama”, 5-26-11, http://www.thenation.com/blog/160970/egypt-hamas-and-obama)

  Last week, President Obama called for stepped

  AND

  to have to see about that as well.”

  All of Obama’s political capital is key to final deal- Key to negotiating funding offsets

  Philly 2011 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

  The solution is to pump more money into

  AND

  the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

  Extension key to prevent double dip, consumer spending key- Link independently collapses consumer confidence

  Hill 12/28 (Patrice Hill, Washington Times, “Economists fear withdrawal symptoms if payroll-tax cut vanishes,” http://goo.gl/Uxdo2)

  But the added spending power and support for

  AND

  essential matters affecting the economy, he said.

  Nuclear war

  Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 2008  [Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]

  Then there are the dolorous consequences of a

  AND

  divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.

   

   

   

  1NC Saudi DA

  US pragmatism is preserving the Saudi relationship—the plan alters the Middle East strategy, violating the deal with Riyadh

  Escobar, 11-2

  Pepe Escobar, Asia Times Online, “The Pentagon-Arab Spring love story” 2011 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MK02Ak01.html

  This whole scenario was predictable ever since Washington

  AND

  business like the "security architecture" business.

  Saudis backlash against the plan

  Madawi Al-Rasheed (professor of the anthropology of religion at Kings College) January 10, 2012 “The Saudi response to the ‘Arab spring’: containment and co-option”

  MA-R: When Saudi Arabia could

  AND

  certainly be an embarrassment to the government internationally.

  Plan causes US-China oil wars

  Gal Luft (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) in Washington, D.C.) and Anne Korin (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS and the editor of Energy Security) 2004 “The Sino-Saudi Connection” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm

  Even if Saudi Arabia does not pursue nuclear

  AND

  Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.

   

  These escalate globally

  Jim Cabral (teaches international relations and political science in the Social Science Department at Landmark College in Putney, Vt.) August 12, 2010 “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy” http://www.valleyadvocate.com/article.cfm?aid=12165

  The preoccupation of states with securing the reliability

  AND

  that they will be caught in any conflagration."

   

   

  Solvency

  SCAF will call the US bluff – no implicit qpq

  Mark LeVine (a professor of history at UC Irvine) January 3, 2012 “SCAF's Chinese surprise in 2012” http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/01/20121283259906802.html

  It remains to be seen how the US

  AND

  in "meddling" in its internal affairs.

  Economic holdings

  Joseph Mayton (writer for the Jerusalem Post

  AND

  not be used, told The Media Line.

   

  Transition Advantage

  Current military officers sticking with the SCAF – but they are beginning to question it now

  Jack Shenker (The Guardian’s Cairo correspondent) December 28, 2011 “Egyptian army officer's diary of military life in a revolution” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/28/egyptian-military-officers-diary

  Despite the crucial role played by the military

  AND

  are turning against Scaf, and against Tantawi."

  Plan crushes SCAF military cohesion – the affs model causes schisms in the military ranks – flips the aff

  Philippe Droz-Vincent (assistant professor of political science and teaches at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques in Paris) November 14, 2011 “Is Military Rule in Egypt Really Temporary?”  http://www.policypointers.org/Page/View/13422

  This is a dead-end policy.

  AND

  a new posture in this time of uncertainty.

   

  Egypt stable now – no escalation

  Rami G. Khouri (columnist for The Daily Star) January 14, 2012 “Calm and confident in Cairo and beyond” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Jan-14/159839-calm-and-confident-in-cairo-and-beyond.ashx#axzz1jznTWOZh

  Nearly a year after the revolution that toppled

  AND

  is why they are so calm and confident.

  No collision course – Egypt is stable and disorders are common on the road to democracy.

  Ahmed Shaaban January 21 2012 Egyptians hope for a new era http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/theuae/2012/January/theuae_January550.xml&section=theuae

  DUBAI — A new era, founded on

  AND

  be patient to enjoy the prosperity and welfare.”

  Egypt revolution won’t cause shift in regional power balance

  Salem 2011 (Paul Salem, Carnegie Middle East Center,  “'Arab Spring' Has Yet to Alter Region's Strategic Balance,” LA Times, May 9, 2011, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43907)

  Despite their sweeping repercussions for both domestic and

  AND

  has hedged its bets in Libya and Syria.

  Iran’s regional hegemony will crumble now – Plan emboldens them – flips the whole aff

  Vali Nasr (professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University) November 2, 2011 “Why Contain Iran When Its Own Aims Will Do Just That?: Vali Nasr” http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/01/bloomberg_articlesLTY3421A1I4H.DTL

  Iran is once again in America's cross hairs

  AND

  S. military absorbed resentments in the region.

   

   

   

   

  Military Access

   

  Suez not key to naval power – several alternative ways of power projection.

  Kori Schake  Wednesday, February 2, 2011 What a shifting Egypt means for the U.S.

  http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/02/what_a_shifting_egypt_means_for_the_u_s

  More likely would be an Egyptian government concerned

  AND

  chokehold on U.S. military operations.

  Naval power not key element of hegemony

  PEC, Apr 10, 2007 The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power

  http://popeeatscookies.blogspot.com/2007/04/limitations-and-necessity-of-naval.html

  The counterargument normally given is that the U

  AND

  stages, but commercial transport sustains the operation.

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

block v cal

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

•  

   

   

   

   

  2NC Cohesion Turn

   

  Aff evidence is propaganda at worst, and demonstrates challenges in getting accurate information at best.  SCAF members resent the assertion of aff authors that there is dissent within their ranks. 

  Daria Solovieva  Jan 16 2012 Amid Media Wars, a Need for EvolutionThe revolution led to a crowded, polarized media landscape http://www.businesstodayegypt.com/news/display/article/artId:271/Amid-Media-Wars-a-Need-for-Evolution/secId:5

  Traditional journalists are not used to being truly

  AND

  facto leadership role in the country’s transition period.

  SCAF cohesion high now

  Eric Davis (professor of political science and former director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University) November 22, 2011 “Making Sense of the Arab Spring (Part 2)” http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2011/11/making-sense-of-arab-spring-part-2.html

  What many analysts have failed to mention is

  AND

  at the upper echelons of the officer corps.

  Tantawi doesn’t like the plan even if he says yes – he will continue crackdowns – people already question his leadership skills – the plan cements that perception among the mid-level officer corps

  Jeffrey Fleshman (LA Times Cairo Bureau Correspondent) April 2011 “Egyptian protesters increasingly disillusioned with army” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/11/world/la-fg-egypt-military-20110412/2

  Further crackdowns could occur as generals seek to

  AND

  will not tolerate independent thought within" its ranks

  We control the biggest internal link to your advantage – we just have to win that higher up portions of the SCAF will still pursue isolated crackdown strategies post the plan – sufficient to trigger our impacts

  Robert Springborg (professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is an historian and author and has written extensively on Egypt's military and the Mubarak regime) and Thomas Bruneau (distinguished professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and his research interests include Latin American and Iberian security) January 12, 2012 “Latin America's lessons for the SCAF”  http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/598131

  Since the SCAF is the political actor which

  AND

  the SCAF is biting the hand that feeds.

   

   

   

   

  Military Access

   

   

  No impact – status quo retrenchment sufficiently solves all global flashpoints – history overwhelmingly proves

  Joseph M. Parent (Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami) and Paul K. MacDonald (Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College) November/December 2011 “The Wisdom of Retrenchment” Foreign Affairs http://www.ihavenet.com/World-United-States-The-Wisdom-of-Retrenchment-America-Must-Cut-Back-to-Move-Forward-Foreign-Affairs.html

  Despite the erosion of U.S.

  AND

  States to restore some luster to its leadership.

  No transition conflicts – multipolarity solves war

  Barry Buzan (Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics) 2011 "The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture A World Order Without Superpowers Decentred Globalism," International Relations, 4-1, vol. 25 no. 1 3-25]

  There are many reasons to think that a

  AND

  there would still be a lot of global trade

   

   

   

  Cross Strait Interdependence

  Yang 2005 (Philip Yang, phD. National taiwan University, Rise of China and the Cross-Strait Relations. Paper Presented at the 5th Europe Northeast Asia Forum. 2005. http://www.swp-berlin.org/common/get_document.php?asset_id=2705)

  The current economic trend across the Taiwan Strait

  AND

  reckless de jure independence would become increasingly prohibitive.

   

  Relations solve regional escalation

  James Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) September 2002 “Deconstructing the U.S.-Saudi Partnership?” http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/CCC/publications/OnlineJournal/2002/sept02/middleEast2.pdf

   As a lynchpin of U.S

  AND

  longer serves U.S. strategic interests.

  Link ensures SCAF backlashes against the plan

  Daniel Korski (European Council On Foreign Relations) July 5, 2011 :Arab Spring: Without military reform Egypt cannot democratize” http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/42669

  The key consideration is to cajole and persuade

  AND

  bought through the comfortable kleptocracy of Military Inc.

  Independently flips the aff

  Jeff Martini (project associate at the RAND Corporation) and Julie Taylor (political scientist at the RAND Corporation, former professor of Near East Studies at Princeton) August 25, 2011 “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future” http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html

  Such tactics, of course, are risky

  AND

  threaten to undermine cooperation between the two countries.

   

  Saudi backlash turns regional heg

  Shibley Telhami (the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, College Park, and non-resident senior fellow at the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution) and Fiona Hill (Director, Center on the United States and Europe Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy The Stephen and Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute) November/December 2002 “Does Saudi Arabia Still Matter? Differing Perspectives on the Kingdom and Its Oil” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/58444/shibley-telhami-fiona-hill-et-al/does-saudi-arabia-still-matter-differing-perspectives-on-the-kin?page=show

  Given America's ongoing security interest in the Persian

  AND

  in the case of a war with Iraq.

   

   

  Aid Now

  Congress wants to aid pulled back because of raids and election monitoring – plan doesn’t solve this.

  Rachel Martin http://www.npr.org/2012/01/08/144862812/u-s-reconsiders-egypt-aid-after-ngos-raided

  Pull back U.S. military aid

  AND

  to the raids. NPR's Michele Kelemen reports.

  Arms deal

  Links outweigh

   

  First – timeframe – the arms deal will be delivered over the next two decades

  The Australian December 30, 2011 “US inks $30b arms deal with Saudi Arabia” http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-inks-30b-arms-deal-with-saudi-arabia/story-e6frg6so-1226233304330

  The delivery of the whole package will unfold

  AND

  and Apache attack helicopters, defense officials said.

  They wont get their first new tech delivery until 2015

  The Australian December 30, 2011 “US inks $30b arms deal with Saudi Arabia” http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-inks-30b-arms-deal-with-saudi-arabia/story-e6frg6so-1226233304330

  First deliveries of the aircraft will be made

  AND

  are expected in the coming weeks and months.

  Second – backlash to the plan causes a public re-examination of the arms deal – forces

  Leigh Nolan (Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center) May 2011 “MANAGING REFORM? SAUDI ARABIA AND THE KING’S DILEMMA” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/05_saudi_arabia_nolan/05_saudi_arabia_nolan.pdf

  A critical role for the United States will

  AND

  cement the regime’s perception as isolated and threatened.

  Middle East Conflict

  Oil conflicts are uq

  Mamdouh G. Salameh (an international oil economist, a consultant to the World Bank in Washington, DC on energy affairs and a technical expert of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in Vienna, Director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service in the UK and a member of both the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London and the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He is also a member of the Energy Institute in London) 2010 “China’s Global Oil Diplomacy: Benign or Hostile?”

  Saudi Arabia, holder of the world’s largest

  AND

  and even global peace depend on the answers.

   

  A2: Libya

  The story is a joke

  Daily Kos 1-22-2012 “US Troops in Libya?” http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/22/1057248/-US-Troops-in-Libya?via=recent

  The curious part here, though, is

  AND

  -Keem as the country's interim prime minister.

   

  Suez

  No Suez impact – Shipping redirection & tanker capacity

  Schmollinger 11 (Christian, “Oil Risk Premium on Egypt Limited by Alternatives, Nomura Says”, Bloomberg News, 2-10, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/oil-risk-premium-on-egypt-limited-by-alternative-supplies-nomura-says.html)

  A further increase in oil prices because of

  AND

  to 15 days,” the bank estimates.

   

  Link

  Plan causes backlash – Saudis control it

  Mary Casey (Executive Associate - Project on Middle East Political Science) August 10, 2011 “Arab Uprisings: The Saudi Counter-Revolution” http://jaactomist.wordpress.com/2012/01/14/arab-uprisings-the-saudi-counter-revolution/

  Late at night on Sunday, August 7

  AND

  suggestions as to where it might be headed.

   

  Relations aren’t resilient - Emotional backlash outweighs rational incentives for resiliency in the short-term

  Molavi 11 – New American Foundation Middle East scholar, Afshin, “The state of the Saudi-U.S. relationship”, 3-22, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/22/the-state-of-the-saudi-u-s-relationship/

    At the bureaucratic level, the Saudi

  AND

  . But there is this tension right now.

  No longer a ‘special relationship’ – its strategic like relations with China, Pakistan, and Russia

  DAVID OTTAWAY | SEPTEMBER 23, 2011 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/uncle_sam_and_the_saudi_split?page=0,2

  The United States and Saudi Arabia have always

  AND

  , India, Israel, Pakistan, and Russia

   

  China UQ

  China has unique window of opportunity now

  M K Bhadrakumar (a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey) January 18, 2012 “China weighs 'right side of history' in Gulf “ http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NA18Ad02.html

  Premier Wen Jiabao's current six-day visit

  AND

  "great significance" of Wen's regional tour.

  China pushing for more Saudi oil access but wont get it now

  Chris Buckley (writer for Yahoo! News) January 14, 2012 “China's Wen presses Saudi Arabia for oil access” http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20120115/bs_nm/us_saudi_arabia_china

  Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pressed Saudi Arabia to

  AND

  consequently reduce their Saudi imports," she said.

   

   

   

   

  
  
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