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Plan

The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

Transition Advantage 1AC

The military is frustrating the transition to democracy- new revolution is immanent

Matt Bradley 9-14-2011 Wall Street Journal “Emergency-Law Extension Worries Egyptian Activists” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903532804576568611926699764.html
The interim government's decision on Sunday to renew
AND
1981, would be lifted before parliamentary elections.
The SCAF isn’t opposed to democracy- just scared and confused

Michael Wahid Hanna is a fellow and program officer at the Century Foundation August 23, 2011 Foreign Policy “The mind of Egypt's military” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/the_mind_of_egypts_military
Critics of the SCAF attribute to it an
AND
to thoroughgoing, and potentially destabilizing, reform.
This ensures Al Qaeda takeover – US key to prevent

Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
The uprising in Egypt is far from over
AND
democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
Maintaining a peaceful transition key to discredit violent revolutuon

Dr Sayed Khatab is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia. He is a Co-Editor of the peer referred International Journal of Humanity & Islam Presented to The 24th Annual Conference of the International Association for Conflict Management July 3-6, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey “Egyptian Revolution and its Impact on the Stability in the Middle East”
The Revolution in Egypt put radicalism and al
AND
change i.e. violent Jihad.16
Egypts economy is on the precipice of destruction- investors are freaked out by political turmoil

Ahram Online 9-14-2011 “Market Report: Egypt stock losses spiral on” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/21265/Business/Economy/Market-Report-Egypt-stock-losses-spiral-on-.aspx
Egyptian stocks slipped for their fourth consecutive session
AND
of re-applying Egypt's reviled emergency law.

Egypt is key to the global economy

Michael Schuman (long-time foreign correspondent for TIME magazine, and former Wall Street Journal reporter) February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d
At first glance, the upheaval on the
AND
prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.

Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of
AND
Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
AND
to an increase in the use of force.

These conflicts escalate

Mathew J. Burrows (counselor in the
AND
09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf
Of course, the report encompasses more than
AND
a more dog-eat-dog world.

Immediacy and certainty are key- US pressure for democracy is key to let them know our words aren’t hollow

David A. Super, a law professor at Georgetown University, is active in Voices for a Democratic Egypt August 23, 2011 Los Angeles Times “Time for the U.S. to use its influence in Egypt”  http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-super-egypt-20110823,0,5909879.story
The coming months will be a crucial time
AND
democracy in the heart of the Arab world.

US civil military aid is key - have to ensure future generals are accustomed to democratic norms

William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
AND
the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.


They will say yes- the US has unique leverage

Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe Washington Post Staff Writers January 30, 2011 “A test of Egypt's military and its relations with U.S.” Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904546.html?sid=ST2011013000187
The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's
AND
the Egyptian middle and upper-middle class.

Middle East Regional Heg Advantage 1AC

US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region

Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As I will show shortly, in recent
AND
, they question U.S. credibility.
2 Internal Links

First is Regional CMR- E-IMET solves in Egypt

Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
AND
, to receive civil-military affairs training.
CMR in Egypt is modeled throughout the region- now is the key time

Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times February 04, 2011 “Change in Egypt could restore its centrality to the Arab world” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/04/world/la-fg-egypt-arab-world-20110204
For centuries, before its steady decline of
AND
it is clear that something fundamental has changed.

CMR key to US engagement in the Middle East- key to interoperability

Nora Bensahel et al is Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Daniel L. Byman professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. He has served as a staff member on the 9/11 Commission, and Negeen Pegahi an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval War College 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Civil-military relations may also pose a
AND
equipment and training while regular military capabilities erode.

CMR key to allied conventional deterrence

Risa Brooks is an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University.  Her research focuses on issues related to civil-military relations, military effectiveness, and militant and terrorist organizations 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Assessing civil-military relations is also significant
AND
their armed forces in the region’s many wars.

Independently solves inevitably conflicts- conventional deterrence is key

Dr. Rebecca Grant, PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Former lecturer at Air University and Air Command and Staff College, February 2009 (Global Deterrence: The Role of F-22, Lexington Institute)
In the Cold War, nuclear deterrence was
AND
occasional jostling or more serious face-offs.

Second is strategic location= Egypt is key to US Middle East presence- US engagement is key to preserve the alliance- now is the key time to cement US access

David Wood writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/
Whatever the outcome of the tumult wracking Egypt
AND
that capability is years away, he said.

US presence key to prevent regional conflicts from escalating- Iran proliferates and multiple other hotpots would escalate

Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.  JAN 24, 2011, VOL. 16, NO. 18  The Weekly Standard “The Price of Power” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1
Today the international situation is also one of
AND
table and the table will not fall over.
Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it

Herbert London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds
Iran is poised to be the hegemon in
AND
the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework

James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
The basis of the argument that escalation is
AND
of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.


Spirals out of control – causes CBW use

James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
AND
, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Extinction

Jorge Hirsch, 4-10-06, Professor of Physics at the University of California at San Diego & Fellow of the American Physical Society, last accesced 6-24-09. http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/4069
Iran is likely to respond to any US
AND
will all be gone before anybody has prevailed.
Bioweapons independently cause extinction

Richard Ochs: 7-9-02,  has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction,
AND
such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

Iran is on the verge of nuclear weapons- most recent and qualified reports confirm

Market Watch 9-4-2011“AJC: New IAEA Report Reaffirms Dangers of Iran's Nuclear Program” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ajc-new-iaea-report-reaffirms-dangers-of-irans-nuclear-program-2011-09-04
"This latest IAEA report underscores yet again
AND
starting with the nations in Iran's immediate neighborhood."

Nuclear Iran creates unstable multipolar deterrence relationship- lack of communication means escalation is likely

Gerald M. Steinberg (Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is Director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University) April 2005 “Deterrence Instability: Hizballah's Fuse to Iran's Bomb” Jerusalem Viewpoints
Historically, in response to other threats to
AND
this relationship will be highly dangerous and unstable.

Iran prolif causes wildfire regional prolif- makes nuclear escalation inevitable

Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf
We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East
AND
the tendency to opt for a first strike.

Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting

Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold
AND
about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

That causes extinction

Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers
AND
.org/article/Nuclear_winter]
Nuclear winter is a term that describes the
AND
prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe

Plan
The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

Adv 1

SCAF is cracking down on civil society groups that are key to the transition- clear signal by the US is key to influence them
Stephen McInerney is executive director at the Project on Middle East Democracy 9-28-2011 Foreign Policy “SCAF’s Assault on Egypt’s Civil Society” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/28/scaf_s_assault_on_egypt_s_civil_society
Civil society is an essential component of any
AND
groups to unequivocally stand up for their rights.

SCAF isn’t evil- they are just confused as to how to shape the transition
Michael Wahid Hanna is a fellow and program officer at the Century Foundation August 23, 2011 Foreign Policy “The mind of Egypt's military” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/the_mind_of_egypts_military
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (
AND
acquiescence to the trial of the deposed president.
This ensures radical takeover – US key to prevent
Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
The uprising in Egypt is far from over
AND
democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
Immediacy of transition is key to the Egyptian economy- new wave of protests and must reassure investors and tourists
Jackson Diehl 9-25-2011 Washington Post “The real threat in Egypt: Delayed democracy” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-real-threat-in-egypt-delayed-democracy/2011/09/22/gIQAN2zBxK_story.html
There is reason, of course, to
AND
and may yet happen — between the two.

Egypt is key to the global economy
Michael Schuman (long-time foreign correspondent for TIME magazine, and former Wall Street Journal reporter) February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d
At first glance, the upheaval on the
AND
prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.

Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
AND
to an increase in the use of force.  

These conflicts escalate
Mathew J. Burrows (counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC), PhD in European History from Cambridge University) and Jennifer Harris (a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit) April 2009 “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf
Of course, the report encompasses more than
AND
a more dog-eat-dog world. 

US civil military aid is key - have to ensure future generals are accustomed to democratic norms
William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
AND
the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

They will say yes- the US has unique leverage
Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe Washington Post Staff Writers January 30, 2011 “A test of Egypt's military and its relations with U.S.” Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904546.html?sid=ST2011013000187
The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's
AND
the Egyptian middle and upper-middle class. 

Adv 2

US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region
Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As I will show shortly, in recent
AND
, they question U.S. credibility.
2 Internal Links
First is Regional CMR- E-IMET solves in Egypt
Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
AND
, to receive civil-military affairs training.
CMR in Egypt is modeled throughout the region- now is the key time
Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times February 04, 2011 “Change in Egypt could restore its centrality to the Arab world” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/04/world/la-fg-egypt-arab-world-20110204
For centuries, before its steady decline of
AND
it is clear that something fundamental has changed.

CMR key to US engagement in the Middle East- key to interoperability
Nora Bensahel et al is Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Daniel L. Byman professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. He has served as a staff member on the 9/11 Commission, and Negeen Pegahi an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval War College 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Civil-military relations may also pose a
AND
equipment and training while regular military capabilities erode.

CMR key to allied conventional deterrence
Risa Brooks is an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University.  Her research focuses on issues related to civil-military relations, military effectiveness, and militant and terrorist organizations 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Assessing civil-military relations is also significant
AND
their armed forces in the region’s many wars.

Independently solves inevitably conflicts- conventional deterrence is key
Dr. Rebecca Grant, PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Former lecturer at Air University and Air Command and Staff College, February 2009 (Global Deterrence: The Role of F-22, Lexington Institute)
In the Cold War, nuclear deterrence was
AND
occasional jostling or more serious face-offs.

Second is strategic location= Egypt is key to US Middle East presence- US engagement is key to preserve the alliance- now is the key time to cement US access- key to reassure Israel
David Wood writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/
Whatever the outcome of the tumult wracking Egypt
AND
that capability is years away, he said.

Israeli isolationism sparks nuclear war
The New Republic, 7/15/2002 “HOW DESPAIR IS TRANSFORMING ISRAEL” , p. lexis
The more that Israelis are treated as pariahs
AND
would place the Jewish state outside international norms.

US presence key to prevent regional conflicts from escalating- key to prevent Middle East prolif Iran hegemony and war
Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.  JAN 24, 2011, VOL. 16, NO. 18  The Weekly Standard “The Price of Power” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1
Today the international situation is also one of
AND
table and the table will not fall over.
Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it
Herbert London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds
Iran is poised to be the hegemon in
AND
the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
The basis of the argument that escalation is
AND
of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

Spirals out of control – causes CBW use
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
AND
, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Bioweapons independently cause extinction
Richard Ochs: 7-9-02,  has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html  
Of all the weapons of mass destruction,
AND
such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

Middle East prolif causes escalation
Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf
We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East
AND
the tendency to opt for a first strike.

Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting
Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold
AND
about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

That causes extinction
Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers University [Alan Robock (Associate director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction. 30 year researcher in the area of climate change. Holds a doctorate in meteorology from MIT. Published over 150 peer-reviewed papers on climate change), “Nuclear winter” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 6, 2009, Pg. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter]
Nuclear winter is a term that describes the
AND
prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe. 

T Democracy Assistance

We meet plan text says democracy assistance portions of E-IMET
E-IMET’s goal is democracy assistance
Carothers, 1999 (Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment, “Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve” p. 52-53, google books)
The Department of Defense AND important part of its program.

Their security assistance distinction is immaterial – The nature of the programs overlaps w common aid goals
Adelman 7 (Carol, Hudson Inst., “Effectively Advancing Security Interests”, Harvard Int’l Review, http://hir.harvard.edu/economics-of-national-security/foreign-aid?page=0,2&Harvard-AES%3ASS-auth%3A1_4=)
The third pillar of the US foreign AND  United States has not been consistent. 

Democracy assistance is divided into four categories: CMR falls under governance.
McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)
U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor AND  improvements as a result of U.S. assistance.

The core of security-focused democracy assistance is the AFF.
Mitchell and Phillips, 2008 (Lincoln A., Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and David L., Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director, “Enhancing  Democracy Assistance” January acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.14-15)
Reform the Security AND  military budgets and operations.

Aff innovation and creativity are key to effective democracy assistance – overlimiting distort the literature and destroy topic specific education
Christopher Sands (Senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, adjunct professor of Canadian studies at  the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, from 2002 -2007 was the director of strategic planning and evaluation at the International Republican Institute) Summer 2010 “Democracy Around the World” International Journal Vol. 65 No. 3, Gale
Innovation and creativity are AND  neophyte legislators and politicians. 

Threaten CP
That would eliminate our leverage- also links to politics
Ewen MacAskill in Washington Feb 4 2011 The Guardian “Egypt protests: US resists calls to cut military aid” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/04/egypt-protests-us-military-aid?intcmp=239
The Obama administration today AND  of the status quo," he said.

Forces adjustments that cause prolif
Kristina Kausch (a researcher at FRIDE, European think tank for global action. Prior to joining FRIDE in 2004, she worked for the German Technical Cooperation agency (GTZ) on programmes of democratic governance and institution-building) May 2010 “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt” Online
The usefulness of conditioning AND , not weaken it.. 

They would reject it
Reuters 9-30-2011 Egypt warns US of conditioning military aid on democracy http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/500704
Egypt has warned the US AND  relationship or our support,” she said.

Turkey CP
Turkish model causes rifts in the military
Michael Wahid Hanna is a fellow and program officer at the Century Foundation August 23, 2011 Foreign Policy “The mind of Egypt's military” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/the_mind_of_egypts_military
The haphazard and at times AND  military encroachment on civilian authority. 

Turkey is not an effective model for democracy in Egypt
F. Stephen Larrabee, a former member of the National Security Council, holds the Distinguished Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation 2011-03-23 Project Sydicate “The Turkish Chimera” http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/larrabee7/English
Many Arabs regard the brand AND based on Turkish nationalism. 

Egyptians reject their model
Maggie Michael The Associated Press 9-13-2011 Atlanta Journal Constitution “Erdogan presents Turkey as model for Arabs” http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/erdogan-presents-turkey-as-1178439.html
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip AND  accept Turkish-style secularism.

Turkey would drive a wedge between Egypt and Israel causes Israel isolation- US influence key to prevent
Anthony Shadid September 18, 2011 New York Times “Turkey Predicts Alliance With Egypt as Regional Anchors” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/middleeast/turkey-predicts-partnership-with-egypt-as-regional-anchors.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
A newly assertive Turkey offered AND Middle East seems to be diminishing. 

Turkey soft power can’t solve
Barçin Yinanç September 23, 2011 Hurriyet Daily News “'Arab Spring triggered problems that Turkey can’t solve on its own'” http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=arab-spring-triggered-problems-that-turkey-can8217t-solve-on-its-own-2011-09-23
As Turkey is becoming AND  institutions will be very vulnerable as well.

Pakistan collapse exaggerated – no loose nukes
John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 167
Returning closer to reality, AND  Hollywood scripts than in real life. 

KORUS
SKFTA doesn’t spillover to security.
Kim, 2010 (Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute and MA in Poli Sci from Korea University, “Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances” google)
Table 1 summarizes the findings AND  debate on the important subject 

No war
Takashi Yokota, pub. date: 1-27-09, an associate editor at  NEWSWEEK  Nihon Ban, Nuke-Size Headache,” accessed: 3-24-09, http://www.newsweek.com/id/181809/page/2  
The question, then, is AND  with on the Korean Peninsula.

Powerful lobbies check 1930s style protectionism
Kati Suominen (transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and trade economist at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington) 2009 “A New Age Of Protectionism? the Economic Crisis And Transatlantic Trade Policy”, the German Marshall Fund Of The United States, http://www.gmfus.org//doc/Suominen%20final.pdf
This paper makes three arguments AND  fortunes of the global trading system.

No deal
Reuters 9/28 (“Obama pick for deputy Commerce job to withdraw,” google)
Garcia became frustrated with the AND  the three pending trade agreements.
Multiple fights coming now- All of them will be huge
Johnson 9/30 (Toni Johnson, “Washington's Decision Deficit,” CFR, google)
This week Congress narrowly avoided AND projecting U.S. power abroad.
No PC- Can’t get his agenda going
Lightman 9/30 (David Lightman, “As Obama presses passage of his jobs bill, Congress shrugs,” Miami Herald, google)
Congress is highly unlikely to approve AND with Chinese currency manipulation.

Egypt lobby is powerful and supports the plan
Knickerbocker 11 (Brad, Jewish World Review, 2/4, “Obama will never cut foreign aid to Egypt” http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0211/obama_threats_empty.php3)
Also, aid to Egypt (exceeded only by aid AND  improve Egypt's image for investment." 

Winners win—legislative success builds political capital.
Green, 2010 (David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, “The Do-Nothing 44th President” June 11, google)
Moreover, there is a AND , this is precisely what they did.

Political capital is a joke- Congressional voting is determined by ideology
Richard Fleisher Fordham University Professor Department of Political Science Jon R. Bond Texas A&M University Professor Department of Political Science and B. Dan Wood Texas A&M University Professor Department of Political Science “Which Presidents Are Uncommonly Successful in Congress?” 2008. In Bert A. Rockman and Richard W. Waterman (eds.), Presidential Leadership: The Vortex of Power. Oxford University Press, pp. 191-213 http://webdoc.sub.gwdg.de/ebook/p/2005/american_congress/congress.wustl.edu/fleisher.pdf
Presidency scholars claim AND contribute to more party polarization.

T Democracy Assistance

They are agents of democracy
Stratfor May 19 2011 “Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood on the March, but Cautiously” http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110518-egyptian-muslim-brotherhood-march-cautiously
Focusing on whether the Supreme Council of the
AND
the underlying reality of power remains the same.
E-IMET’s goal is democracy assistance
Carothers, 1999 (Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment, “Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve” p. 52-53, google books)
The Department of Defense increasingly emphasizes promotion in
AND
, as an important part of its program.

Security assistance is a broad term that has overlap with democracy assistance
Adelman 7 (Carol, Hudson Inst., “Effectively Advancing Security Interests”, Harvard Int’l Review, http://hir.harvard.edu/economics-of-national-security/foreign-aid?page=0,2&Harvard-AES%3ASS-auth%3A1_4=)
The third pillar of the US foreign aid
AND
of the United States has not been consistent. 

Democracy assistance is divided into four categories: CMR falls under governance.
McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)
U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies
AND
a result of U.S. assistance.

The core of security-focused democracy assistance is the AFF.
Mitchell and Phillips, 2008 (Lincoln A., Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and David L., Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director, “Enhancing  Democracy Assistance” January acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.14-15)
Reform the Security Sector Organs AND
military budgets and operations.

Aff innovation and creativity are key to effective democracy assistance – overlimiting distort the literature and destroy topic specific education
Christopher Sands (Senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, adjunct professor of Canadian studies at  the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, from 2002 -2007 was the director of strategic planning and evaluation at the International Republican Institute) Summer 2010 “Democracy Around the World” International Journal Vol. 65 No. 3, Gale
Innovation and creativity are important aspects of the
AND
appreciated and applied by neophyte legislators and politicians. 

Transition

Stable transition in Egypt key to Libya stability
David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense April 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf
As of March 2011, popular uprisings in
AND
can play a productive role in the future.

Escalatory nuke war
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)
Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that
AND
now than WW I seemed in early 1914. 

Reg Heg

*No veto: return to peace talks or ‘NO’ votes that won’t necessitate a veto.
Radia, 9/20 (ABC news,  By Kirit Radia Sep 20, 2011 10:20pm U.S., Allies Shift Tactics on Palestinian Vote, End Effort to Dissuade Abbas, google)
Envoys from the Quartet met today for the
AND
also avoiding a U.S. veto.

Deterrence prevents India/Pakistan conflict
Tepperman 2009 (Jonathan Tepperman, Deputy Editor at Newsweek Magazine and former Deputy Managing Editor of Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2009, Newsweek, September 14, 2009, Lexis Academic)
The record since then shows the same pattern
AND
what they had to do to avoid it.

PIC

CMR key to effective 4th Generation Warfare
Patrick M. Cronin Director Institute for National Strategic Studies September 2008 Strategic Forum “Irregular Warfare: New Challenges for Civil-Military Relations” No. 234
Why the importance of civil-military relationships
AND
are in various stages of discussion and resolution.

Effective Fourth Generation Warfare is key to prevent escalating conflicts- most probable conflicts
Dr. Chet Richards J. Addams & Partners July 12, 2005 “Dear Mr. & Ms. 1RP: Welcome to the 21st Century” http://www.zmetro.com/pdf/2005/07/welcome_21st_century_v4.pdf
Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and
AND
the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

KORUS
SKFTA doesn’t spillover to security.
Kim, 2010 (Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute and MA in Poli Sci from Korea University, “Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances” google)
Table 1 summarizes the findings of the case
AND
reinvigorate the currently stale debate on the important subject 

No war
Takashi Yokota, pub. date: 1-27-09, an associate editor at  NEWSWEEK  Nihon Ban, Nuke-Size Headache,” accessed: 3-24-09, http://www.newsweek.com/id/181809/page/2  
The question, then, is whether North
AND
issues to deal with on the Korean Peninsula.
Their ev is hype- No deal
Needham 10/1 (Vicki Needham, “Three long-delayed trade agreements to move to Congress,” The Hill, google)
Three pending free-trade agreements could reach
AND
deal hasn't been reached that meets both sides' requirements
Obama is not pushing SKFTA- Using all his PC on jobs
Jackson 10/3 (David Jackson, “Obama wants jobs bill vote this month,” USA Today, google)
"I will continue to put as much
AND
trade agreements will help put Americans to work.

Egypt lobby is powerful and supports the plan
Knickerbocker 11 (Brad, Jewish World Review, 2/4, “Obama will never cut foreign aid to Egypt” http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0211/obama_threats_empty.php3)
Also, aid to Egypt (exceeded only
AND
Washington offices to improve Egypt's image for investment." 

Political capital is a joke- Congressional voting is determined by ideology
Richard Fleisher Fordham University Professor Department of Political Science Jon R. Bond Texas A&M University Professor Department of Political Science and B. Dan Wood Texas A&M University Professor Department of Political Science “Which Presidents Are Uncommonly Successful in Congress?” 2008. In Bert A. Rockman and Richard W. Waterman (eds.), Presidential Leadership: The Vortex of Power. Oxford University Press, pp. 191-213 http://webdoc.sub.gwdg.de/ebook/p/2005/american_congress/congress.wustl.edu/fleisher.pdf
Presidency scholars claim that presidential success is a
AND
are likely to contribute to more party polarization.

Global Local 2AC
Perm solves – extreme labels of “global/local” oversimplify international relations – permutation solves
Clare Hinrichs et al (Associate Professor of Rural Sociology at the University of Park) 1998 “MOVING BEYOND "GLOBAL" AND "LOCAL”” http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/sociology/ne185/global.html
One problem with the oppositions posed above is
AND
outcomes for people, communities and the environment.

Alt doesn’t solve - focusing on the local in politically debilitating – your evidenced it methodologically flawed
Clare Hinrichs et al (Associate Professor of Rural Sociology at the University of Park) 1998 “MOVING BEYOND "GLOBAL" AND "LOCAL”” http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/sociology/ne185/global.html
If this is so, why have we
AND
never were or futures that never can be. 

Russia DA 2AC
Russia and US not fighting over Arab Spring.
CSIS, 11, September, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “What Does the Arab Spring Mean for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus?”, http://csis.org/files/publication/110912_Zikibayeva_ArabSpring_Web.pdf
Mark N. Katz, professor of government
AND
.S. reactions to the same events.

Russia supports a democratic Egypt.
CSIS, 11, September, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “What Does the Arab Spring Mean for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus?”, http://csis.org/files/publication/110912_Zikibayeva_ArabSpring_Web.pdf
In regard to the events in Tunisia and
AND
his willingness to work with Egypt’s new government.

A

Plan
The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

Advantage 1 - Stability
SCAF inexperience and poor governance is causing a complete collapse of the transition now – the plan is key to solve
Samer Soliman (associate professor of political economy at the American University in Cairo) October 19, 2011 “The army, legitimate force and the interim phase” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/4/24593/Opinion/The-army,-legitimate-force-and-the-interim-phase.aspx
I tried hard last week to overcome my
AND
represent only a small sector of Egyptian society.
Its try or die – Complete collapse and radical takeover are inevitable – Only the plan contains the impact
Steven Cook Senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the council on foreign relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy August 2009 “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations CONTINGENCY P LANN ING MEMORANDUM NO. 4
One crude indicator of relative stability/instability
AND
of what will surely be a confrontational relationship.
This tears the SCAF apart, causes radical takeover
Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
The uprising in Egypt is far from over
AND
democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
Its reverse causal – plan prevent extremists from getting a new lease on life
Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay McClatchy Newspapers 02.11.11 Miami Herald “Egypt's revolution will remake the Middle East, but how?” http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/11/2062742/egypts-revolution-will-remake.html
Egypt's revolution, a secular popular revolt that
AND
push for democracy and openness, he said.
Egyptian stability controls the direction of all warfare and crushes power projection globally.  Also independently collapses global trade, causes Ethiopia and Eritrea war, Israel war, Israel-Cyprus gas
Gregory R. Copley (the Editor-in-Chief and founder (in 1972) of the Defense & Foreign Affairs group of publications. He is founder (in 1982, with Dr Stefan T. Possony) and President of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA), the global non-governmental organization (NGO) for senior professional officials involved worldwide in the formulation of national and international strategic policy, heavily involved in classified strategic analysis and operations for governments, worldwide, a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of institutions around the world, currently including the European Cultural Centre, of Delphi, Greece; the University of Belgrade; Intercollege, in Nicosia, Cyprus; and the University of Western Australia) February 2011 “Strategic ramifications of the Egyptian crisis” http://www.asmarino.com/news-analysis/906-strategic-ramifications-of-the-egyptian-crisis
In the preface to the Defense & Foreign
AND
options for the future encourages decline and instability.
Interdependence controls escalation – trade decline causes war
Evan E. Hillebrand (Professor of Diplomacy at University of Kentucky and a Senior Economist for the Central Intelligence Agency) 2010 “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?” Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2 2010
A long line of writers from Cruce (
AND
states and the probability for interstate war rises.
Egyptian strength key to keep Africa conflict from escalate globally
Glick, 12/12/2007 Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday,http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and
AND
which flows through all countries of the region.
Tensions over Cyprus are at an all-time high- Turkey will be forced to escalate
Stratfor 9-28-2011 “Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-turkey-cyprus-rising-energy-tensions-eastern-mediterranean
Tensions have been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean
AND
take matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.
Greece-Turkey war causes escalation
Ian Lesser (Woodrow Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar) 2000 “NATO Looks South:  New Challenges and New Strategies in the Mediterranean” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1126/
A third, more proximate, source of
AND
Israel is a new element in this calculus.
Israel pressure global extinction – deterrence wont check
Louis Rene Beres (professor of political science and international law at Purdue University) August 17, 2011 “Israel, anarchy and global chaos” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092
In history, there is a powerful difference
AND
prevent a much longer-term collective disappearance.

Advantage 2 – CMR
Renegotiation of civil-military relations is coming regionally now – SCAF will inevitably polarize this process in Egypt – crushes any hope for reform
Yezid Sayigh (a senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut) October 27, 2011 “Armies and Civilians in the Arab Awakening: An Inevitable Compromise?” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/27/armies-and-civilians-in-arab-awakening-inevitable-compromise/68dp
The final outcomes of the Arab transitions are
AND
mean military dictatorship, but certainly limited democracy.
E-IMET solves that
Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
AND
, to receive civil-military affairs training.
Key to ensure Egyptian leaders adhere to democratic norms
William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
AND
the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.
They will say yes- the US has unique leverage
Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe Washington Post Staff Writers January 30, 2011 “A test of Egypt's military and its relations with U.S.” Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904546.html?sid=ST2011013000187
The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's
AND
the Egyptian middle and upper-middle class.
Plan spills over regionally –cross-pollination of E-IMET graduates ensures quick diffusion
Thomas C. Bruneau et al Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School Kathleen Peggar the Global Center for Security Cooperation (GCSC) EUCOM Liaison Officer Elisabeth Wright program manager for the International Defense Acquisition Resource Management program in the School of International Graduate Studies, Naval Postgraduate School 2007-2008 Center for Civil – Military Relations Naval Postgraduate School “IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION (IMET) ON GRADUATE EDUCATION”
IMET has a cross fertilization, pollination effect
AND
as compensation for attending a US graduate program.
Egypt is key
Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times February 04, 2011 “Change in Egypt could restore its centrality to the Arab world” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/04/world/la-fg-egypt-arab-world-20110204
For centuries, before its steady decline of
AND
it is clear that something fundamental has changed.
This shreds efforts at regional military cooperation
Nora Bensahel et al is Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Daniel L. Byman professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. He has served as a staff member on the 9/11 Commission, and Negeen Pegahi an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval War College 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Civil-military relations may also pose a
AND
equipment and training while regular military capabilities erode.
That destroys our ability to solve irregular warfare in the region
Patrick M. Cronin Director Institute for National Strategic Studies September 2008 Strategic Forum “Irregular Warfare: New Challenges for Civil-Military Relations” No. 234
Success in the highly political and ambiguous conflicts
AND
best use of their unique and complementary portfolios.
These escalate and go nuclear
Dr. Chet Richards J. Addams & Partners July 12, 2005 “Dear Mr. & Ms. 1RP: Welcome to the 21st Century” http://www.zmetro.com/pdf/2005/07/welcome_21st_century_v4.pdf
Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and
AND
the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

CMR solves regional proliferation
Risa Brooks is an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University.  Her research focuses on issues related to civil-military relations, military effectiveness, and militant and terrorist organizations 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Civil-military relations affect regime stability,
AND
but are consistent with civil-military imperatives.
Middle East prolif causes escalation
Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf
We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East
AND
the tendency to opt for a first strike.

Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting
Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold
AND
about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

That causes extinction
Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers University [Alan Robock (Associate director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction. 30 year researcher in the area of climate change. Holds a doctorate in meteorology from MIT. Published over 150 peer-reviewed papers on climate change), “Nuclear winter” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 6, 2009, Pg. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter]
Nuclear winter is a term that describes the
AND
prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.
Advantage 3 - Credibility
Status quo perception of disengagement will crush credibility globally – Middle East engagement is key to reaffirm security commitments in a laundry list of countries
Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
THE RELATIVE POWER of the United States is
AND
global responsibilities and live up to its commitments oversea
Makes laundry list of global conflicts inevitable
Victor Davis Hanson (professor of classics at California State University, Fresno, and is currently the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution) December 2009 Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama” http://pjmedia.com/blog/change-weakness-disaster-obama-answers-from-victor-davis-hanson/
BC: Are we currently sending a message
AND
quite knows whom it will bite or when.
The all escalate to nuclear war – US credibility controls the direction of all conflicts
David Bosco (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06211/709477-109.stm
The understanding that small but violent acts can
AND
Europe's armies poured across their borders in 1914.
Action of the plan alone sufficient to get credit and restore credibility
Shadi Hamid (Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) April 2011 “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web, http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php
The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia
AND
. Otherwise, their revolutions may still fail.

Egypt is also key to US presence- key to check Iran hegemony
David Wood writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/
Whatever the outcome of the tumult wracking Egypt
AND
that capability is years away, he said.

Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it
Herbert London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds
Iran is poised to be the hegemon in
AND
the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.
Controls escalation of all conflicts – collapse causes global wars and protectionism
Yuhan Zhang (a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.) and Lin Shi (Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C.) January 2011 “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/
However, as the hegemony that drew these
AND
will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Stability Advantage
New instability in Libya is coming- they don’t have a blueprint- but they do have a chance
USA Today 10-21-2011 Clare Morgana Gillis, Jim Michaels and William M. Welch “Gadhafi era ends: What's next for Libya?” http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-10-20/libya-faces-uncertain-future-after-gadhafi-death/50847920/1
"I'm afraid the opposition is going to
AND
They've done pretty damned well," Serwer said.

That will independently cause escalatory nuclear war
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)
Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that
AND
now than WW I seemed in early 1914. 

Instability causes large scale missile proliferation
Mail and Guardian 10-26-2011 “Growing alarm over stockpiled weapons in Libya” http://mg.co.za/article/2011-10-26-growing-alarm-over-stockpiled-weapons-in-libya/
Ian Martin, head of the UN mission
AND
and thousands of guided and unguided aerial weapons.

Missile prolif causes broader WMD prolif
Dinshaw Mistry is Assistant Professor at the University of Cincinnati International Security 27.4 (2003) 119-149 “Beyond the MTCR Building a Comprehensive Regime to Contain Ballistic Missile Proliferation” Project Muse

1. Ballistic missiles provide rapid delivery of
   AND
   containing missile proliferation strengthens the WMD nonproliferation regime. 

Prolif makes miscalculation likely. Cold War deterrence model is not applicable
Cimbala 08 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008, pages 113 – 132Informaworld]
The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents
AND
the avoidance of war outside of Europe.19

That causes extinction
Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers University [Alan Robock (Associate director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction. 30 year researcher in the area of climate change. Holds a doctorate in meteorology from MIT. Published over 150 peer-reviewed papers on climate change), “Nuclear winter” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 6, 2009, Pg. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter]
Nuclear winter is a term that describes the
AND
prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe. 

Libyan instability spills over to African instability and failed states
Michael Ignatieff is the Carr Professor and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard 10-24-2011 Reuters “Libya’s revolution pushes democracy forward” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/idUS413846800520111024
All across the Middle East, the people
AND
hideouts of the Al Qaeda in the Magrheb.

Failed states cause great power wars – power vacuums and competing interests make intervention inevitable
Jakub Grygiel, John Hopkins IR professor, “Vacuum Wars: The Coming Competition Over Failed States,” American Interest, Jul/Aug 2009, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=622
This prevailing view of failed states, however
AND
the direct involvement of two or more powers. 

African conflicts escalate to great power wars.
Glick, 12/12/2007 Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday,http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and
AND
which flows through all countries of the region. 

The UN will get the credit for actions on Libya- they are the international actor most associated with their success
Xinhua 9-21-2011 by Xinhua writer Gu Zhenqiu “Time has come for central UN role in Libya's political transition” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-09/21/c_131150287.htm
As world leaders gathered on Tuesday for a
AND
of the UN-Libyan partnership and cooperation.

UN Peacekeeping efforts in Libya will be ineffective now
Stewart M. Patrick Senior Fellow and Director, Program on International Institutions and Global Governance 8-25-2011 “UN Peacekeeping: Ready for Libya?” Council on Foreign Relations http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/08/25/un-peacekeeping-ready-for-libya/
With the United Nations Security Council (UNSC
AND
often impassable area the size of Western Europe.

Libya is the litmus test for UN credibility
Robert Danin, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR, 8/22/11, Council on Foreign Relations, “Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya,” http://www.cfr.org/africa/post-qaddafi-instability-libya/p25693
But Libya is also important for a second
AND
well a Western oil interest in that country.

The UN is the best institution to solve global problems
Shashi Tharoor, United Nations Undersecretary-General for Communications and Public Information, September/October 2003 (“Why America Still Needs the United Nations” – Foreign Affairs) p. ebscohost
Thus U.S. foreign policy today
AND
long after Iraq has passed from the headlines.

That’s key to solve warming
Houle 2007—David Houle (Author, speaker and strategest who advises organizations about dynamic trends). Global Warming and Peace. 16 Oct. 2007. http://www.scientificblogging.com/david_houle/global_warming_and_peace
The second reason that global warming is a
AND
scope is certainly a step toward world peace.
Warming is extinction
Hansen 9 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]
The climate is nearing tipping points. Changes
AND
ocean providing fish that are safe to eat.

Sharia Law Advantage

Currently it will be extremist Islam that wins in Libya- experts agree
Interfax 10-26-2011 “Political scientist predicts blossom of radical Islam and civil war in Libya” http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=8823
It is naive to think that moderate Islam
AND
country would live according to the Sharia law.

Islamist teachings will inevitably be the center of Libyan political society- the US is key to ensuring its moderate rather than extreme
Max Boot senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations 10.25.2011 Commentary Magazine “Will Libya and Other States Carve Out Their Own “Islamic Democratic” Identity?” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/10/25/libya-islamic-democratic-identity/
Recent events from the Middle East are no
AND
within a rule-of-law framework.

Spills over to the rest of the Middle East
Shmuel Bar (director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy) April 2011 “America’s Fading Middle East Influence” http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161
The obama administration views the revolutions in the
AND
stable democratic government in that primarily tribal country.

Extremist government in Libya causes an AQIM safehaven
Mark Hosenball 9-29-2011 Reuters “Exclusive - Concern grows over militant activity in Libya” http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/29/uk-libya-militants-idUKTRE78S6MZ20110929
Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA analyst
AND
establish elaborate, semi-permanent training camps.\

Libyan arms will flow to terrorists and AQIM
Gary Schmitt 7-1-2011 The Enterprise Blog “New Worries That Libyan Arms Flow to Al Qaeda” http://blog.american.com/2011/07/new-worries-libyan-arms-flow-to-al-qaeda/
News out of a Madrid meeting between Homeland
AND
in the hands of some pretty dangerous folks.

Al Qaeda will attack the US with WMD in the next 2 years- evidence otherwise underestimates their capabilities
Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
We should be especially worried about the threat
AND
accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”
                                                                                                                                 
There are WMD to be found in Libya
Justin Marozzi is the author of South From Barbary: Along The Slave Routes Of The Libyan Sahara 3-2-2011 The Daily Mail “Gaddafi has chemical weapons and he's ready to use them” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1362022/Libya-Muammar-Gaddafi-chemical-weapons-hes-ready-use-them.html
But what is worrying a growing number of
AND
a fool who says it had vanished entirely. 

Nuke terror attack causes extinction- it’s a trigger for nuclear wars
Hellman 8 [Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf]
A terrorist attack involving a nuclear weapon would
AND
III is a necessity—not an option.

Terrorism causes miscalculation that draws in Russia and China and culminates in extinction- also causes rising alert levels
Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the
AND
might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Rapid escalation in alert levels causes decentralized command authority – makes uncontrollable escalation inevitable
Scott Sagan (professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation) 1990 “Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management” in “Nuclear diplomacy and crisis management: an International security reader” p. 191-3
A “NO-ALERTS” POLICY?  
AND
authorized escalatory steps might lead to uncontrolled escalation.  

AQIM will commit bioterror attacks- they have the capability to spread the diseases- prevention methods are ineffective
Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Al-Qaeda and The Plague,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=30382)
The Algerian terrorist franchise, al-Qaeda
AND
must be prepared for a potentially catastrophic attack.

Bioweapon use spreads globally and causes extinction – outweighs nuclear weapons
John D. Steinbruner, Brookings senior fellow and chair in international security, vice chair of the committee on international security and arms control of the National Academy of Sciences, Winter 1997, Foreign Policy, “Biological weapons: a plague upon all houses,” n109 p85(12), infotrac
Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear
AND
this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.

Solvency

The US needs to take covert action to help Libyan rebels form a government- the US has the comparatively best technical expertise
William Bauer takes a keen interest in international affairs and politics, specifically Middle-Eastern and Maghreb affairs, drawing on his studies in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic at the University Exeter, with a s pecialization in North-African politics 8/24/2011 Policy Mic “America Must Be A Back Seat Driver” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes%29
So, what is next for Libya?
AND
the U.S. has to offer.

Covert aid to Libya to build government institutions is essential to fighting radicalism
Reut Cohen and Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, a recognized expert on political Islam and American Islamist organizations, discusses the turmoil in Libya and the future of the poor but oil-rich North African country. Jasser, a devout Muslim, founded the American Islamic Forum for Democracy in 2003. He has briefed members of the House and Senate congressional anti-terrorism caucuses about radical Islam 8-25-2011 Neon Tommy “What's Next For Libya?” http://www.neontommy.com/news/2011/08/whats-next-libya
Zuhdi Jasser: The Islamists in many of
AND
a culture of morality necessary for a democracy.

Advising the election of a legislature first is the best model for a transition- ensures stability
Marc Herman 10-20-2011 Miller-McCune Magazine “Post-Gadhafi: What’s Next for Libya’s Government?” http://www.miller-mccune.com/politics/inside-libya-how-to-fix-a-fallen-dictatorship-35461/
When looking for a roadmap in places like
AND
for permissions—which makes it a democracy.

There is already a framework in place for covert action to Libya
BBC, ’11 [“Obama authorises covert aid to Libyan rebels – reports,” March 30, 2011]
US President Barack Obama has secretly authorised covert
AND
president to authorise covert operations by the CIA.

No risk of backlash - The U.S. successfully conducted a covert operation to influence the Iraq elections
Jehl & Sanger, ‘5 [Douglas & David E., “Plan Called for Covert Aid in Iraq Vote,” the New York Times, July 17]
Any clandestine American effort to influence the Iraqi
AND
the covert effort have been hard to discern."

Plan

The United States Executive Branch should provide covert technical assistance for legitimate elections, including promotion of legislative elections prior to national elections in Libya.

T Covert Isn’t Topical

Counterinterp- Democracy assistance can be covert- it’s the Cold War model

Dr. Elizabeth Cohn previously spent nine years as an Assistant Professor at Goucher College and director of the International and Intercultural Studies program July 1, 1999 Foreign Policy in Focus “U.S. Democratization Assistance” http://www.fpif.org/reports/us_democratization_assistance

During the cold war, government …parties, and trade unions.

Reasons to Prefer

Education- covert action is a mechanism of democracy building it’s a core question that should be debated

Aff innovation and creativity are key to effective democracy assistance – overlimiting distort the literature and destroy topic specific education

Christopher Sands (Senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, adjunct professor of Canadian studies at  the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, from 2002 -2007 was the director of strategic planning and evaluation at the International Republican Institute) Summer 2010 “Democracy Around the World” International Journal Vol. 65 No. 3, Gale

Innovation and creativity are important …applied by neophyte legislators and politicians.

Stability

UN legitimacy ensures countries don’t model an unfettered preemption doctrine

James Steinberg, Deputy National Security Adviser to Clinton and Current Head of the Foreign Policy Studies Program, Brookings Institution, Summer 2003 (“The Bush Foreign Policy Revolution” – New Perspectives Quarterly) Sorry, Lost the PG Numbers

However justified, a doctrine of early …objective principle that others can point to.

Russia would model by preempting countries in Central Asia

The Record 9/29/2002p. lexis

"If something in the zone between …incursions being staged from within Georgia. 

The Russian economy is resilient.

Harry Cohen. "THe Russian Economy Under President Putin." NATO Parliamentary Assembly." 5 Nov. 2004. http://www.nato-pa.int/default.asp?SHORTCUT=361

Despite these serious problems, Russia is ….Russia's place in the global order.

1AR Stability Adv

Instability is coming in Libya

Peter Gelling 10-20-2011 Global Post “Could Gadhafi’s death spark a civil war?” http://www.salon.com/2011/10/20/gadhafi_rebels/singleton/

As Libyans, and much of the Arab world, ….elections. The Libyan conflict may be far from over.

Middle East war causes nuclear war, biowar, and economic collapse – causes extinction

Timothy Alexander (Advance warfare technology consultant writer for Rense Magazine,) July 2008 “War On Iran The Perfect Storm From Hell”

As the global bankers' plan to bring down ….weapons of mass destruction within a few months of the initial attacks on Iran

Military doctrine shifts and missile proliferation ensures miscalc and escalation

Mohamed Kadry Said ((Maj.Gen.(ret.), Military and Technology advisor and head of military studies unit, Al- Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies; member of the committee for strategic planning in the Egyptian Council for Space Research Science and Technology; member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, member of the council of the Pugwash Organization for Science and World Affairs, senior member of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics since 1986 and member of the American Planetary Society since 1991) 2001 “Missile proliferation in the Middle East: a regional perspective” http://www.unidir.org/pdf/articles/pdf-art75.pdf

The Middle East’s experience with ballistic …nuclear, biological or chemical warheads will increase.

War spread regionally – everything is so interconnected that conflicts explode

The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”, http://www.theage.com.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heats-up/2007/09/23/1190486129857.html

THE torturous road to peace in the Middle ….mileage in diplomacy than in any military solutio

International Actor CP

They have conceded an add on functionally- combination of Bar and Bauer evidence indicates that plan causes the US to take a backseat role in the Middle East which is key to stability- that escalates

James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined ….substantial risk for the entire world.

Also causes Great Power Conflict

Jakub J. Grygiel (Center for European Policy Analysis Senior Fellow and Associate Professor at SAIS) October 3, 2011 “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion” http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Over the past few months, spurred …the side of democracy and human rights

No risk of US-Europe war

Charles A. Kupchan Fall 1999 World Policy Journal "Life after pax Americana"

It is fortunate that the near-term challenge to U.S. primacy will come from Europe. After decades of close cooperation, Europe and North America enjoy unprecedented levels of trust and ….Europe engaging in militarized conflict.

1AR CP

Obama has already committed to a visible role

USA Today, 9/20/2011 Obama pledges U.S. help for Libya, USA Today http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/09/obama-pledges-us-help-for-libya/1

President Obama said today that the United …security assistance, Obama said.

1AC Bar card says regional democracy cred causes Israel pressure

Jonathan Spyer (Research  Fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, Herzliya, Israel) 2007 “Israel and the Iraq Study Group Report” Strategic Insights, Volume VI, Issue 2 (March 2007) http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/publications/OnlineJournal/2007/Mar/spyerMar07.html

As the date drew near for the publication of ….far the conservative realist assumption.

Causes lashout

Jerome Corsi, pub. date: 7-19-2006,  "Codi, Stay Home." World Net Daily,

The United States can exert strong-arm pressure …what anyone, including President Bush, thinks or says.

Prez can use discretionary funding

Potter, ’96 [Zachary, “Covert Action: the Delicate Balance,” December 13, online]

Although the president must inform congress …be as powerful as a determined president.

Coercion

Util is good and doesn’t devalue life

Richard L. Revesz (Dean and Lawrence King Professor of Law at New York University School of Law, JD Yale Law School) and Michael A Livermore. (JD NYU School of Law, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, and Managing director of the NYU Law Review). Retaking Rationality How Cots-Benefit Analysis Can Better protect the Environment and Our Health. 2008. P. 1-4.

Governmental decisions are also fundamentally …foundation, and act effectively to bring about a better world.

Overemphasis on method destroys effectiveness of the discipline

Wendt, Handbook of IR, 2002 p. 68

It should be stressed that in advocating a pragmatic ….should continue on all three levels.

Critique

Predictions are inevitable and good

George Friedman (founder of Stratfor) May 2008 “The Love of One’s Own and the Importance of Place” Stratfor

Forecasting is built into the human condition. …if the world were to some degree predictable.

Democracy assistance isn’t the violent regime overthrow that happened in Iraq

Carl Gershman is president of the National Endowment for Democracy and Michael Allen, special assistant to the vice-president for government and external relations at NED, is editor of the online publication Democracy Digest Journal of Democracy 17.2 (2006) 36-51 “The Assault on Democracy Assistance” Project Muse

The precondition for the acceptance of democracy ….and monitor government performance.

Violence is objectively decreasing due to western reason and liberal democracy- spreading those ideals is key to solve conflict

Pinker 11 Steven Pinker is Professor of psychology at Harvard University "Violence Vanquished" Sept 24 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html

 With all its wars, murder and genocide, … coincided with the electronic global village.

China Bashing DA

UQ overwhelms the link and its not key to relations- China will adjust its currency anyways

Xinhua 10-18-2011 “'China pushes exchange rate reform in own way'” China Daily http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-10/18/content_13928631.htm

HONG KONG - China is conducting the exchange ….the American public and the US congress.

Boehner’s investing capital in deficit reduction- bops the DA

James Rowley Bloomberg News 10-28-2011 SF Gate “Boehner, Pelosi Signal Determination to Get Deal on Deficit” http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/10/28/bloomberg_articlesLTQQ010D9L35.DTL

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner and Minority ….everybody to get serious about this."

Presidential findings avoid political backlash – Obama authorized covert aid for Libya

Tapper, et. al. ’11 [Jake, Jon Karl, & Russell Goldman, “President Obama Authorizes Covert Help for Libyan Rebels,” March 30]

The presidential finding discusses a number ….we could provide to the Libyan people."

Even if it gets leaked- Obama can shift blame to the UN

CTV News 9-1-2011 “Leaders agree UN to take lead in post-Gadhafi Libya” http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110901/harper-libya-mission-moammar-gadhafi-110901/

World leaders agreed on Thursday that the …."deploy a civilian mission as rapidly as possible."

Aff: MoSt FR

Round # 3  Tournament: Shirley

vs: OU GL

Judge:

Nick Miller

Plan Text

USFG provide democracy assistance

1ac Advantages

Stability

credibility

2ac Offense

Heg good

Cede policy

1ar Strategy

Answer everything

2ar Strategy

Case defense

C Team Name: Missouri State FR

Round # Harvard Round 6

vs Team: Wake BC

Judge: Glenn Frappier

Plan Text

E-IMET

1ac w/ cites

Transition ADV (Egypt Stability, Trade, Econ, Israel)

CMR ADV (Regional War/Irregular Warfare)

Credibility ADV (Heg, Iran)

    2AC Tricks, Add-Ons

            Answers to Off-case Arguments

Straight turn politics

Minor Defense of Aff Epistemology

            Answers to Major Case Arguments

AT: Say No/Backlash

            Aff says the military needs/wants help, would accept plan because of close ties w/ US

            1AR Strategy Notes

Link turn/epistemological defense on K

            2AR Strategy Notes

Impact turn K

Plan

The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

Advantage 1 - Stability

Military is undermining the transition now

Democracy Digest 11-4-2011 “Egypt’s military backtracks on ‘Turkish model’?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/egypts-military-backtracks-on-turkish-model/

The interim government this week announced that the 

AND 

for sustainable democratic transition, some analysts suggest.

Its try or die – Complete collapse and radical takeover are inevitable – Only the plan contains the impact

Steven Cook Senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the council on foreign relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy August 2009 “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations CONTINGENCY P LANN ING MEMORANDUM NO. 4

One crude indicator of relative stability/instability 

AND 

of what will surely be a confrontational relationship.

This tears the SCAF apart, causes radical takeover 

Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google

The uprising in Egypt is far from over

AND 

democracy from being hijacked by something much worse. 

Its reverse causal – plan prevent extremists from getting a new lease on life

Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay McClatchy Newspapers 02.11.11 Miami Herald “Egypt's revolution will remake the Middle East, but how?” http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/11/2062742/egypts-revolution-will-remake.html

Egypt's revolution, a secular popular revolt that 

AND 

push for democracy and openness, he said.

Egyptian stability controls the direction of all warfare and crushes power projection globally.  Also independently collapses global trade, causes Ethiopia and Eritrea war, Israel war, Israel-Cyprus gas

Gregory R. Copley (the Editor-in-Chief and founder (in 1972) of the Defense & Foreign Affairs group of publications. He is founder (in 1982, with Dr Stefan T. Possony) and President of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA), the global non-governmental organization (NGO) for senior professional officials involved worldwide in the formulation of national and international strategic policy, heavily involved in classified strategic analysis and operations for governments, worldwide, a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of institutions around the world, currently including the European Cultural Centre, of Delphi, Greece; the University of Belgrade; Intercollege, in Nicosia, Cyprus; and the University of Western Australia) February 2011 “Strategic ramifications of the Egyptian crisis” http://www.asmarino.com/news-analysis/906-strategic-ramifications-of-the-egyptian-crisis

In the preface to the Defense & Foreign 

AND 

options for the future encourages decline and instability.

Interdependence controls escalation – trade decline causes war

Evan E. Hillebrand (Professor of Diplomacy at University of Kentucky and a Senior Economist for the Central Intelligence Agency) 2010 “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?” Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2 2010

A long line of writers from Cruce (

AND 

states and the probability for interstate war rises.

Egyptian strength key to keep Africa conflict from escalate globally

Glick, 12/12/2007 Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday,http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes 

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and 

AND 

which flows through all countries of the region. 

Tensions over Cyprus are at an all-time high- Turkey will be forced to escalate

Stratfor 9-28-2011 “Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-turkey-cyprus-rising-energy-tensions-eastern-mediterranean

Tensions have been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean 

AND 

take matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.

Greece-Turkey war causes escalation

Ian Lesser (Woodrow Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar) 2000 “NATO Looks South:  New Challenges and New Strategies in the Mediterranean” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1126/

A third, more proximate, source of 

AND 

Israel is a new element in this calculus.

Israel pressure global extinction – deterrence wont check

Louis Rene Beres (professor of political science and international law at Purdue University) August 17, 2011 “Israel, anarchy and global chaos” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092

In history, there is a powerful difference 

AND 

prevent a much longer-term collective disappearance.

Advantage 2 – CMR

Renegotiation of civil-military relations is coming regionally now – SCAF will inevitably polarize this process in Egypt – crushes any hope for reform

Yezid Sayigh (a senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut) October 27, 2011 “Armies and Civilians in the Arab Awakening: An Inevitable Compromise?” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/27/armies-and-civilians-in-arab-awakening-inevitable-compromise/68dp

The final outcomes of the Arab transitions are 

AND 

mean military dictatorship, but certainly limited democracy. 

E-IMET solves that

Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf

Without a doubt, the Special Forces, 

AND 

, to receive civil-military affairs training.

Key to ensure Egyptian leaders adhere to democratic norms

William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/

While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with 

AND 

the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

They will say yes- the US has unique leverage

Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe Washington Post Staff Writers January 30, 2011 “A test of Egypt's military and its relations with U.S.” Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904546.html?sid=ST2011013000187

The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's 

AND 

the Egyptian middle and upper-middle class. 

Plan spills over regionally –cross-pollination of E-IMET graduates ensures quick diffusion

Thomas C. Bruneau et al Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School Kathleen Peggar the Global Center for Security Cooperation (GCSC) EUCOM Liaison Officer Elisabeth Wright program manager for the International Defense Acquisition Resource Management program in the School of International Graduate Studies, Naval Postgraduate School 2007-2008 Center for Civil – Military Relations Naval Postgraduate School “IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION (IMET) ON GRADUATE EDUCATION” 

IMET has a cross fertilization, pollination effect

AND 

as compensation for attending a US graduate program.

Egypt is key

Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times February 04, 2011 “Change in Egypt could restore its centrality to the Arab world” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/04/world/la-fg-egypt-arab-world-20110204

For centuries, before its steady decline of 

AND 

it is clear that something fundamental has changed.

This shreds efforts at regional military cooperation

Nora Bensahel et al is Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Daniel L. Byman professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. He has served as a staff member on the 9/11 Commission, and Negeen Pegahi an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval War College 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf

Civil-military relations may also pose a 

AND 

equipment and training while regular military capabilities erode.

That destroys our ability to solve irregular warfare in the region 

Patrick M. Cronin Director Institute for National Strategic Studies September 2008 Strategic Forum “Irregular Warfare: New Challenges for Civil-Military Relations” No. 234

Success in the highly political and ambiguous conflicts 

AND 

best use of their unique and complementary portfolios.

These escalate and go nuclear

Dr. Chet Richards J. Addams & Partners July 12, 2005 “Dear Mr. & Ms. 1RP: Welcome to the 21st Century” http://www.zmetro.com/pdf/2005/07/welcome_21st_century_v4.pdf

Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and 

AND 

the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

CMR solves regional proliferation

Risa Brooks is an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University.  Her research focuses on issues related to civil-military relations, military effectiveness, and militant and terrorist organizations 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf

Civil-military relations affect regime stability, 

AND 

but are consistent with civil-military imperatives.

Middle East prolif causes escalation

Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf

We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East 

AND 

the tendency to opt for a first strike.

Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting

Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf

Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold 

AND 

about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

That causes extinction

Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers University [Alan Robock (Associate director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction. 30 year researcher in the area of climate change. Holds a doctorate in meteorology from MIT. Published over 150 peer-reviewed papers on climate change), “Nuclear winter” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 6, 2009, Pg. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter]

Nuclear winter is a term that describes the 

AND 

prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe. 

Advantage 3 - Credibility

Status quo perception of disengagement will crush credibility globally – Middle East engagement is key to reaffirm security commitments in a laundry list of countries

Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

THE RELATIVE POWER of the United States is 

AND 

global responsibilities and live up to its commitments oversea

Makes laundry list of global conflicts inevitable

-China/Taiwan

-Latin America

-North Korea

-Pakistan

-Syria

-India/Pak

-Russia

Victor Davis Hanson (professor of classics at California State University, Fresno, and is currently the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution) December 2009 Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama” http://pjmedia.com/blog/change-weakness-disaster-obama-answers-from-victor-davis-hanson/

BC: Are we currently sending a message 

AND 

quite knows whom it will bite or when.

The all escalate to nuclear war – US credibility controls the direction of all conflicts

David Bosco (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06211/709477-109.stm

The understanding that small but violent acts can 

AND 

Europe's armies poured across their borders in 1914.

Action of the plan alone sufficient to get credit and restore credibility

Shadi Hamid (Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) April 2011 “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web, http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND 

. Otherwise, their revolutions may still fail.

Egypt is also key to US presence- key to check Iran hegemony

David Wood writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/

Whatever the outcome of the tumult wracking Egypt

AND 

that capability is years away, he said.

Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it

Herbert London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

Iran is poised to be the hegemon in 

AND 

the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

Controls escalation of all conflicts – collapse causes global wars and protectionism

Yuhan Zhang (a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.) and Lin Shi (Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C.) January 2011 “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/

However, as the hegemony that drew these 

AND 

will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

ADVANTAGE 1
Continued crackdowns in Syria result in massive refugee flows into Turkey
Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Institute's Program on Arab Politics. CNN Global Public Square, June 14, 2011 “The Consequences of Syrian Refugees in Turkey” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1653
If the Syrian regime continues its violent crackdown
AND
refugee flow numbering in the hundreds of thousands.
Refugee flows into Turkey cause radicalization of the PKK
Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Institute's Program on Arab Politics. CNN Global Public Square, June 14, 2011 “The Consequences of Syrian Refugees in Turkey” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1653
A flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey could
AND
nationalist movement in Turkey toward a violent stance.
PKK radicalization from Syria causes global escalation
Gulriz Gigi Gokcek, Department of Political Science, UC Santa Barbara, 3/27/2002, “Ethnic Conflict and Interstate War: An Analysis of the Kurdish Problem,” http://isanet.ccit.arizona.edu/noarchive/gokcek.html
Fortunately, the 1998 crisis ended peacefully with
AND
the ethnic conflict to a whole new level.
Turkey is considering action on Syria but has not made a decision- US influence and resolution of the conflict is key to prevent military intervention
Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. and Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Institute's Program on Arab Politics and author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria July 14, 2011 “How Washington Can Work with Turkey on Syria” Washington Institute on Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3385
Recently, however, unrest along Turkey's longest
AND
.S. Middle East policy on Libya.
Cooperation with Turkey is key to resolving the crisis in Syria
Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. and Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Institute's Program on Arab Politics and author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria July 14, 2011 “How Washington Can Work with Turkey on Syria” Washington Institute on Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3385
Despite recent problems in the U.S
AND
Ankara have a hope of changing Asad's ways.

A Turkish role in Assad’s fall is key to ensure growing Turkish soft power- Syria is the key country
Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute 12-4-2011 “Under the Influence: Syria's Unique Relationship with Turkey” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1763
Turkey has recently emerged as a patron country
AND
, Damascus will again be linked to Istanbul.

Turkish influence is inevitable- US action is key to moderate it and ensure they don’t bash Israel
Thomas L. Friedman three time Pulitzer Prize winning journalist June 15, 2010 New York Times “Letter From Istanbul” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/opinion/16friedman.html
But as Turkey started looking more South,
AND
get where they’re going — over a cliff.

Global nuclear war
Roberta D. Tate, pub. date: 9-15-2002, MA Srategic Intellegence American Military University in Manassas Virginian; Project Analyst, “The Cold War Era (1946-1991),” Bobbi's Political Space, http://redtate.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!28E20A23065EF8C7!781.entry
I honestly believe that the posturing to end
AND
Russia. What a tangled web we weave.

Israel responds to those threats with nuclear retaliation
Louis Rene Beres (professor of political science and international law at Purdue University) August 17, 2011 “Israel, anarchy and global chaos” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092
In history, there is a powerful difference
AND
prevent a much longer-term collective disappearance.

ADVANTAGE 2
Iran is emboldened by the withdrawal in Iraq- using it to act more aggressively throughout the region
Frederick W. Kagan is director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kimberly Kagan is president of the Institute for the Study of War, where Marisa Cochrane Sullivan is deputy director Nov 7, 2011, The Weekly Standard Vol. 17, No. 08 “Defeat in Iraq” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/defeat-iraq_604179.html?page=3
Iranians and their allies have hastened to take
AND
continued Iranian involvement in Syria and the Levant.

Turkey-US cooperation on Iraq is key to prevent civil war and Iran influence- key to prevent regional escalation
Kimberly Kagan is president of the Institute for the Study of War. Frederick W. Kagan is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and director of AEI’s Critical Threats Project 1-2-2012 The Weekly Standard Vol. 17, No. 16  “Is Iraq Lost?” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/iraq-lost_614757.html?page=3
With administration officials celebrating the “successful”
AND
of the White House and the State Department.
Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it
Herbert London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds
Iran is poised to be the hegemon in
AND
the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
The basis of the argument that escalation is
AND
of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

Middle East war causes nuclear war, biowar– causes extinction
Timothy Alexander (Advance warfare technology consultant writer for Rense Magazine,) July 2008 “War On Iran The Perfect Storm From Hell” http://www.rense.com/general82/perf.htm
As the global bankers' plan to bring down
AND
a few months of the initial attacks on Iran

Stable Iraq is key to the success of Iran sanctions- key to stop Iran prolif
Frederick W. Kagan is director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kimberly Kagan is president of the Institute for the Study of War, where Marisa Cochrane Sullivan is deputy director Nov 7, 2011, The Weekly Standard Vol. 17, No. 08 “Defeat in Iraq” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/defeat-iraq_604179.html?page=3
U.S. strategy for preventing Iran’s
AND
a fundamental reevaluation of America’s strategy toward Iran.

Sanctions are inevitable and working to stop Iran prolif- continued multilateral engagement is key to effectiveness
Matt Duss is a Policy Analyst with the National Security team at the Center for American Progress and Director of its Middle East Progress project May 16 2011 “Corralling Iran New U.N. Report Confirms Nuclear Sanctions Are Working” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/05/corralling_iran.html
In a just-released report, a
AND
multilateral resolve that Obama has so painstakingly forged.
Iran is on the verge of nuclear weapons- most recent and qualified reports confirm
Market Watch 9-4-2011“AJC: New IAEA Report Reaffirms Dangers of Iran's Nuclear Program” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ajc-new-iaea-report-reaffirms-dangers-of-irans-nuclear-program-2011-09-04
"This latest IAEA report underscores yet again
AND
starting with the nations in Iran's immediate neighborhood."

Nuclear Iran creates unstable multipolar deterrence relationship- lack of communication means escalation is likely
Gerald M. Steinberg (Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is Director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University) April 2005 “Deterrence Instability: Hizballah's Fuse to Iran's Bomb” Jerusalem Viewpoints
Historically, in response to other threats to
AND
this relationship will be highly dangerous and unstable.

Iran prolif causes wildfire regional prolif- makes nuclear escalation inevitable
Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf
We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East
AND
the tendency to opt for a first strike.

Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting
Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold
AND
about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

That causes extinction
Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers University [Alan Robock (Associate director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction. 30 year researcher in the area of climate change. Holds a doctorate in meteorology from MIT. Published over 150 peer-reviewed papers on climate change), “Nuclear winter” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 6, 2009, Pg. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter]
Nuclear winter is a term that describes the
AND
prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.

Syria is the key test of the new emerging Turkey-US partnership- its weak now but cooperation will revitalize it- key to counter Iran influence in post US Iraq
Ilhan Tanir October 28, 2011 Hurriyet Daily News “Syria to test Turkish-American partnership”
“I have been coming to the U
AND
bragged about new Turkish-American partnership’s vibrancy.
Strategic partnership key to US power projection and heg
Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2000 RAND “Western Interests in a Changing Turkey” http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2011/MR1241.pdf
Only the narrowest (“homeland defense”) approach
AND
reconstruction in the Balkans or the Middle East).
Heg solves conflict
Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture
AND
the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

SOLVENCY
US offers of technical assistance will be accepted- US leadership will get Turkey to follow
Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of “The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.” Mark Dubowitz is the executive director of FDD, where he heads projects on sanctions and the use of technology to encourage democratic change. 9-1-2011 “Obama, American liberator?”
Obama wouldn’t necessarily have to lead from the
AND
It may do the same for Barack Obama.
Cooperation with Turkey on democracy in Syria is key to revitalizing the strategic partnership
Joshua W. Walker is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund October 3 2011 Foreign Policy “Turkey’s muscular maneuvers on the world stage” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/03/the_world_leader_you_should_be_paying_attention_to_right_now
Erdogan and Turkey's dramatic arrival and performance on
AND
Erdogan as leader in the new democratic Turkey.

Working with Turkey is key to influence opposition groups
Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad Oct 26, 2011 The Atlantic “Turkey's Hand in the Syrian Opposition” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/
After seven months of wrangling to form a
AND
the political landscape of post-Assad Syria.
Assad collapse is inevitable- it’s just a question of when- U.S. assistance in civil resistance strategies reduces violence and persuades key constituencies
JESSICA RETTIG November 17, 2011 “How U.S. Could Encourage Peace in Syria” U.S. News and World Report, Online
Despite international condemnation, sanctions and increasingly effective
AND
the Syrian people began to take up arms.
Coercion means inevitable failure- causes sectarian conflict in the interim
Interviewee: Dennis Ross, Counselor, Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consultant, CFR.org December 21, 2011 “Why Syria's Regime Is Doomed” Council on Foreign Relations, Online
This is a regime that is entirely dependent
AND
was purely an image and didn't reflect reality.
PLAN
The United States Federal Government should provide civil society assistance, in joint cooperation with the Republic of Turkey, for Syrian democratic political organizations that oppose the government of Bashar al-Assad.

2AC T Democracy Assistance

Interpretation: The plan provides assistance to Syrian groups; Turkey may cooperate but cannot veto.
We have grammatical support: it’s a non-restrictive clause, which cannot erase the assistance function of the plan. The plan is either US assistance or US-Turkey assistance.  
Grinker, 1994 (Marc A. Grinker, Kent Law, “Clauses - Restrictive and Nonrestrictive” http://www.kentlaw.edu/academics/lrw/grinker/LwtaClauses__Restrictive_and_Nonrest.htm)
1. Restrictive and Nonrestrictive Clauses Defined. Restrictive clauses limit the possible meaning of a preceding subject. Nonrestrictive clauses tell you something about a preceding subject, but they do not limit, or restrict, the meaning of that subject. Compare the following examples.

Counter interpretation: joint assistance can only be done with countries that are supporting democracy in the topic country – Turkey’s doing that now
Mustafa el-Labbad, expert on Turkish-Arab relations. “Turkey Regards the Assad Regime as Finished” 31.08.2011 Qantara, Online
Mustafa el-Labbad: They reflect deep
AND
that it holds trump cards in its hands?

Counter interp- place of destination should not be the standard for Syria- topical destinations can only include countries that have hosted the opposition- that’s only Turkey and Tunisia- adds two affs to the topic- only specifies the how, probably still the case for affs that don’t specify cooperation

For is purpose or intended goal
Merriam-Webster Online 2011
Definition of FOR 1 a —used as
AND
for home> <acted for the best>

“Its” means associated with
Oxford Dictionary10
Pronunciation:/ɪts/
possessive determiner belonging to or associated with a
AND
qits side he chose the area for its atmosphere

It’s best:
Multilateral democracy assistance is the most historically accurate interp
David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and
currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights.
Lincoln A. Mitchell is the Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International
Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. Dr. Mitchell is also
a practitioner of democracy assistance. “Enhancing democracy assistance”  January 2008 NCAFP online
In 2007, the US Government (USG
AND
democratization track for countries that aspire to membership.  

Stability
Europe wont fight
Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28]
Europe, however, is another matter.
AND
project? It keeps them out of mischief.

Turkey Strategic Coop
Cooperation solves
Kirisci 2010 (Kemal Kirisci, Boğaziçi University, “Diffusing liberal market and democratic values: Assessing Turkey’s ‘soft power’ in transforming its neighborhood,” presented at the American Political Science Annual Meeting, September 2010, online)
At a time when in both the US
AND
” while continuing to cooperate with Western actors.


Taking the west’s lead is key to credibility
International Crisis Group 2010 (“TURKEY AND THE MIDDLE EAST: AMBITIONS AND CONSTRAINTS,” April 7, 2010, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/turkey-cyprus/turkey/203%20Turkey%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20-%20Ambitions%20and%20Constraints.ashx)
But, beyond giving voice to frustrations,
AND
interest in Turkey as a democratic example. 208

Sanctions DA
US hardline toward Iran – continuing military warship deployments
Reuters, Jan 3 http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL6E8C31XK20120103
DUBAI Jan 3 (Reuters) - The
AND
waterways critical to global commerce," he said.

US-Turkey strategic alliance solves conflict
Namık Tan is the Ambassador of Turkey to the United States Fall 2010 Turkish Policy Quarterly “Turkish - U.S. Strategic Partnership” Volume 9 Number 3 http://www.turkishpolicy.com/dosyalar/files/13-21.pdf
However, conflicts and disputes in our immediate
AND
and international peace, security, and stability.


Lesser Evidence says US hegemony independently solves conflict in the Balkans and Central Asia
Balkans escalates
Paris 2002 (Roland Paris, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at University of Colorado, Political Science Quarterly, Volume 117, Issue 3, Fall, google)
Nevertheless, the phrase "powderkeg in the
AND
did in World Wars I and II. "

So does Central Asia
Starr 2001 (S. Frederick Starr, Chair of Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at John Hopkins University, “The War Against Terrorism and U.S. Bilateral Relations with the Nations of Central Asia,” Testimony before Senate Subcommittee on Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, Dec 13, 2001, http://goo.gl/jQ1FS)
However, this does not mean that US
AND
without imperiling the security of all the others.


Unemployment Benefits
Econ resilient
Fareed Zakaria (editor of Newsweek International) December 2009 “The Secrets of Stability,” http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425/page/2]
One year ago, the world seemed as
AND
reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.
Won’t Pass – Republican opposition
Chapman and Malloy 1/1 [Dan Chapman and Daniel Malloy, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, http://www.ajc.com/business/debate-rages-over-duration-1283619.html, January 1, 2012]
The jobless recently got a bit of a
AND
revisit the issue early in the next session.
Payroll thumps the DA
Carol Lee 1-1-2012 Wall Street Journal “White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204720204577131543017594740.html
President Barack Obama heads into 2012 with a
AND
item of business on the president's congressional agenda."
Obama PC low-  He refuses to engage Congress
Helene Cooper 12-28-2011 New York Times “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/us/politics/obama-gains-reputation-as-distant-in-washington.html?_r=2&ref=politics
Mr. Obama, in general, does
AND
Dennis A. Cardoza, Democrat of California.

Obama capital not key to unemployment
Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard January 3, 2012 12:00 AM Read more: http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2012/01/03/barnes-obama-s-plan-2012#ixzz1iRCfS5Wq
We now know what President Obama plans for
AND
, Congress approved a 2-month extension.

Plan is bipart
POMED ’11 Project on Middle East Democracy, 5-12.  “Senators call for stronger action and rhetoric on Syria” Online
On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of senators
AND
refrain from violence and engage in political dialogue.

Obama no push- only econ issues cost PC
Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in Washington, D.C.. He is also President of Just Foreign Policy 9-11-2011 “The Decade of 9/11: war without end” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910151711228528.html
If all this sounds pessimistic, with President
AND
decisions, not always for purely opportunistic reasons.

Winners win
Green, 2010 (David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, “The Do-Nothing 44th President” June 11, google)
Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and
AND
Thomas, this is precisely what they did.
Engaging with Turkey is popular- Several powerful Congressmen head the Turkey caucus
Enginsoy 2011 (Umit Enginsoy, April 5, 2011, “Turkish lobby group in US celebrates 10th anniversary,” Hurriyet Daily News, http://goo.gl/6oxgy)
The U.S. Congressional Caucus on
AND
the Turkish lobby in the U.S.

1AR Cards

Politics
No protectionism
Dani Rodrik (professor of political economy at Harvard, recipient of the Social Science Research Council’s Hirschman Prize) 2009 “The myth of rising protectionism”, http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/dani-rodrikmythrising-protectionism/373102/
There was a dog that didn’t bark during
AND
that mitigate demand for cruder forms of protection.

KORUS angered the liberal base.
Hennessey, 10/13 (Kathleen Hennessey, Washington Bureau, LA Times, “Despite divisiveness, Congress passes 3 trade pacts” 2011, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-trade-politics-20111013,0,5055601.story)
Reporting from Washington— Congress passed a trio
AND
accelerating a race to the bottom on wages.
Gridlock now- liberal win key to jobs bill.
Sanders, 10/13 (R.W. Sanders, Huffington Post, “I Might Not Want to Vote for Obama, But I Have to” 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rw-sanders/i-might-not-want-to-vote-for-obama_b_1008451.html)
If you are looking for the congress to
AND
. Hopefully he is up to the job.
Getting Democrats to vote in lockstep on the plan is key to GOP votes for jobs.
Blake, October 13 (Washington Post, “Democrats thwart Obama’s bipartisan goals again” 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/democrats-thwart-obamas-bipartisan-goals-again/2011/10/12/gIQAk9IShL_blog.html)
It’s become a familiar refrain in Washington by
AND
on a bill that is polling quite well.

2AC T  Its
We have grammatical support: it’s a non-restrictive clause, which cannot erase the assistance function of the plan. The plan is either US assistance or US-Turkey assistance.  
Grinker, 1994 (Marc A. Grinker, Kent Law, “Clauses - Restrictive and Nonrestrictive” http://www.kentlaw.edu/academics/lrw/grinker/LwtaClauses__Restrictive_and_Nonrest.htm)
1. Restrictive and Nonrestrictive Clauses Defined.
AND
of that subject. Compare the following examples.

Counter interpretation: joint assistance can only be done with countries that are supporting democracy in the topic country – Turkey’s doing that now
Mustafa el-Labbad, expert on Turkish-Arab relations. “Turkey Regards the Assad Regime as Finished” 31.08.2011 Qantara, Online
Mustafa el-Labbad: They reflect deep
AND
that it holds trump cards in its hands?

Counter interp- place of destination should not be the standard for Syria- topical destinations can only include countries that have hosted the opposition- that’s only Turkey and Tunisia- adds two affs to the topic- only specifies the how, probably still the case for affs that don’t specify cooperation

For is purpose or intended goal
Merriam-Webster Online 2011
Definition of FOR 1 a —used as
AND
for home> <acted for the best>

“Its” means associated with
Oxford Dictionary10
Pronunciation:/ɪts/
possessive determiner belonging to or associated with a
AND
its side he chose the area for its atmosphere

It’s best:
Multilateral democracy assistance is the most historically accurate interp
David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and
currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights.
Lincoln A. Mitchell is the Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International
Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. Dr. Mitchell is also
a practitioner of democracy assistance. “Enhancing democracy assistance”  January 2008 NCAFP online
In 2007, the US Government (USG
AND
democratization track for countries that aspire to membership.  

Solvency
Opposition just signed an agreement -no risk of sectarian fighting post Assad
New York Times 12-31-2011 Karim Fahim “Syrian Opposition Groups Aim for Unity” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/world/middleeast/syrian-opposition-groups-aim-for-unity.html
After a month of negotiations, the two
AND
for separating religion from political and civic life.

“Kiss of death” is an untrue argument used to justify inaction
Shadi Hamid Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 10-21-2011 What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring The New Republic http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx?rssid=middle+east+unrest&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopics%2Fmiddleeastunrest+%28Brookings%3A+Topics+-+The+Arab+Spring+and+Middle+East+Unrest%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
During the Bush administration, when anti-
AND
era of missed opportunities for the United States.


2AC Counterplan
Leading from behind shows kills extended deterrence
Michael Singh is managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council 03 Sep 2011 “Leading from Behind Still Isn't a Good Idea” http://www.islamdaily.org/en/world-issues/middle-east/10109.article.htm
The disadvantages, however, are equally stark
AND
East, a development with deeply troubling implications.

The impact is nuclear war – now is the key time.
Shuster, 2009 (Mike, award-winning diplomatic correspondent and roving foreign correspondent for NPR News, internally quotes Joshua Pollack, an expert on nuclear proliferation who writes for the Web site ArmsControlWonk, NPR, “Iran Prompts Debate Over Mideast Defense Umbrella” August 26)
"Nuclear extended deterrence, if it fails
AND
the credibility of that guarantee," he says.

LFB doctrine assures asia wars
H Ross Kawamura (Shah Alexander), Founder – New Global Initiatives with America, MSc (Int’l Political Econ - London School of Economics) September 20, 2011 http://newglobal-america.blogspot.com/2011/09/can-america-trust-president-obama-on.html Can America Trust President Obama on National Security?
Obama’s appeasement to China and Russia is questionable
AND
he said “America welcomes a strong China”.
Extinction.
Landay, 2000 (Jonathan Landay, Knight-Ridder National Security and Intelligence senior correspondent, Knight Ridder Washington Bureau, “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts” March 10, lexis)
The 3,700-mile arc that
AND
last year, according to the Commerce Department.


Aid Tradeoff
Partnership key to durable Afghan stability
Gül 2007 (Abdullah Gül, foreign minister of Turkey, 2007, “Turkey: Vital Ally in the Cause of Long-Term Stability,” National Committee for American Foreign Policy, EBSCO)
Turkey has the deepest and widest industrial base
AND
have been treated so far in those facilities.
Causes Indo-Pak war
Kaplan 2008 (Robert D. Kaplan, national correspondent for The Atlantic and a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, October 5, 2008, “The War in Afghanistan is for the Future of Pakistan, India, and the U.S.” google)
In fact, Afghanistan is more than a
AND
separatism, is terrified of such a development.

Deterrence prevents India/Pakistan conflict
Tepperman 2009 (Jonathan Tepperman, Deputy Editor at Newsweek Magazine and former Deputy Managing Editor of Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2009, Newsweek, September 14, 2009, Lexis Academic)
The record since then shows the same pattern
AND
what they had to do to avoid it.
New ADM assistance to Libya/Tunisia
WSJ Market Watch Dec. 16, 2011, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/usaid-and-western-union-add-libya-and-tunisia-to-the-second-african-diaspora-marketplace-2011-12-16 USAID and Western Union Add Libya and Tunisia to the Second African Diaspora Marketplace
WASHINGTON & ENGLEWOOD, Colo., Dec 16
AND
, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia.

Normal means reprogramming is informal & frequent – reporting isn’t expected
Allen Schick, Brookings, The Federal Budget, 3rd Edition 2007, p.282
In a typical year, federal agencies report
AND
the appropriations act or the appropriations committee reports.
Politics DA
Won’t have an economic stimulus effect-five reasons
Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, 11 (The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut, economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/)
In theory, the payroll tax cut has
AND
should not be included in the tax wedge.

Econ resilient and doesn’t cause war
Fareed Zakaria (editor of Newsweek International) December 2009 “The Secrets of Stability,” http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425/page/2]
One year ago, the world seemed as
AND
reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.

Won’t pass- House Republican betrayal
Bolton, 1/2 [Alexander, “McConnell, Boehner face tough job of smoothing tensions when they return,” January 2, 2012, http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/201953-mcconnell-and-boehner-face-tough-job-of-smoothing-tensions-when-congress-returns]
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-
AND
his back on it a few days later.

Obama PC low-
a. He refuses to engage Congress
Helene Cooper 12-28-2011 New York Times “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/us/politics/obama-gains-reputation-as-distant-in-washington.html?_r=2&ref=politics
Mr. Obama, in general, does
AND
Dennis A. Cardoza, Democrat of California.


Obama no push- only econ issues cost PC
Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in Washington, D.C.. He is also President of Just Foreign Policy 9-11-2011 “The Decade of 9/11: war without end” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910151711228528.html
If all this sounds pessimistic, with President
AND
decisions, not always for purely opportunistic reasons.



Winners win
Green, 2010 (David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, “The Do-Nothing 44th President” June 11, google)
Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and
AND
Thomas, this is precisely what they did.
Engaging with Turkey is popular- Several powerful Congressmen head the Turkey caucus
Enginsoy 2011 (Umit Enginsoy, April 5, 2011, “Turkish lobby group in US celebrates 10th anniversary,” Hurriyet Daily News, http://goo.gl/6oxgy)
The U.S. Congressional Caucus on
AND
the Turkish lobby in the U.S.

Plan

The Department of Defense should offer a substantial increase in the Joint Combined Exchange Training program to Egypt for the purposes of increasing democratic rule of law and governance.

Turkey Influence Bad Advantage 1AC

Turkey-Egypt Alliance coming now because of lack of US influence- will isolate Israel- Turkish influence is ineffective in stopping conflict

Anthony Shadid September 18, 2011 New York Times “Turkey Predicts Alliance With Egypt as Regional Anchors” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/middleeast/turkey-predicts-partnership-with-egypt-as-regional-anchors.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

A newly assertive Turkey offered on Sunday a

AND

lifting of Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip.

Israel feels encircled by the emerging Turkey Egypt alliance- causes saber rattling

Aluf Benn editor-in-chief for Haaretz Newspaper 9-10-11 Haaretz “Analysis / Crises with Turkey and Egypt represent a political tsunami for Israel” http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/analysis-crises-with-turkey-and-egypt-represent-a-political-tsunami-for-israel-1.383596

The anxiety caused by the Arab Spring among

AND

do but to stand firmly in its place.

Israel pressure global extinction – deterrence wont check

Louis Rene Beres (professor of political science and international law at Purdue University) August 17, 2011 “Israel, anarchy and global chaos” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092

In history, there is a powerful difference

AND

prevent a much longer-term collective disappearance.

Rising Turkish influence causes adventurism- causes Turkey- Cyprus conflict

Daniel Dombey in Istanbul 9-27-2011 Financial Times “Turkey looks to punch above its weight” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/39f83f1a-e912-11e0-ac9c-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1ZJNGfVri

After all, Mr Erdogan has spent recent

AND

Turks argue, could be overplaying its hand.

Tensions over Cyprus are at an all-time high- Turkey will be forced to escalate

Stratfor 9-28-2011 “Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-turkey-cyprus-rising-energy-tensions-eastern-mediterranean

Tensions have been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean

AND

take matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.

Greece-Turkey war causes escalation

Ian Lesser (Woodrow Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar) 2000 “NATO Looks South:  New Challenges and New Strategies in the Mediterranean” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1126/

A third, more proximate, source of

AND

Israel is a new element in this calculus.

Also causes Balkan escalation

Lesser 1 (Dr. Ian, Senior Political Scientist – RAND Corporation, “Greece’s New Geopolitics”, http://library.northsouth.edu/Upload/s%20New%20Geopolitics.pdf)

Since the Cyprus crisis of 1974, the

AND

policy would have been mired in Aegean problems.

Goes nuclear

Paris 2002 (Roland Paris, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at University of Colorado, Political Science Quarterly, Volume 117, Issue 3, Fall, google)

Nevertheless, the phrase "powderkeg in the

AND

did in World Wars I and II. "

Turkish influence is ineffective- only causes conflict with Iran

Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon's Life Struggle 9-29-2011 The National “'Zero problems' in Ankara is havoc for the neighbourhood” http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/zero-problems-in-ankara-is-havoc-for-the-neighbourhood?pageCount=0

Much hyperbole has been deployed in describing Turkey's

AND

that cheerfully grinds down the self-assured.

Turkey-Iran tensions are high- missile defense and Arab Spring- also causes PKK attacks on Turkey

Aydin Albayrak 10-11-2011 Today’s Zaman “Turkey-Iran tension escalates over NATO radar system and PKK” http://www.todayszaman.com/news-259556-turkey-iran-tension-escalates-over-nato-radar-system-and-pkk.html

The war of words between Iran and Turkey

AND

some sensitive nerves in Iran” he explains.

Global escalation

Gulriz Gigi Gokcek, Department of Political Science, UC Santa Barbara, 3/27/2002, “Ethnic Conflict and Interstate War: An Analysis of the Kurdish Problem,” http://isanet.ccit.arizona.edu/noarchive/gokcek.html

Fortunately, the 1998 crisis ended peacefully with

AND

the ethnic conflict to a whole new level.

Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework

James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf

The basis of the argument that escalation is

AND

of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

Middle East war causes nuclear war, biowar– causes extinction

Timothy Alexander (Advance warfare technology consultant writer for Rense Magazine,) July 2008 “War On Iran The Perfect Storm From Hell” http://www.rense.com/general82/perf.htm

As the global bankers' plan to bring down

AND

a few months of the initial attacks on Iran

Egypt is the key place to counter Turkish influence

Oren Kessler 09/20/2011 Jerusalem Post “Turkish FM: With Cairo, we will lead new regional axis” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=238657

Turkey and Egypt could lead a new regional

AND

Hosni Mubarak-era Egypt begins to unravel.

US must make a firm commitment to the region only way to prevent Turkish aggression

Jason Epstein, president of Southfive Strategies, LLC, was a member of the Turkish Embassy’s public relations team from 2002 to 2007 9-19-2011 “Op-Ed: It’s time to stand up to Turkey’s Erdogan” http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/09/19/3089463/op-ed-its-time-to-stand-up-to-erdogan

For the first time since becoming a republic

AND

the Turkish leader will be the big loser.

Rule of Law Advantage

The Egyptian rule of law model is being sullied by the SCAF- their model is emulated around the world

IBAHRI International Bar Association’s Human Rights Institute November 2011 “Justice at a Crossroads: The Legal Profession and the Rule of Law in the New Egypt” accessed online

Egypt has one of the most developed and

AND

are documented more fully in the next chapter.

Military training is key to signal a non- kinetic partnership with the Egyptian people- now is the key time- the US is the key country to support rule of law

Nelly Lahoud, et al. PhD Colonel David DiMeo, PhD Colonel Cindy Jebb, PhD1 Arie Perliger, PhD Ruth Beitler, PhD Major John Ringquist, PhD This team of West Point faculty members is from the Departments of Social Sciences (including the Combating Terrorism Center), Foreign Languages, and History June 29, 2011 “The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace” http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/White-Paper-Final.pdf

The unrest and uncertainties that characterize what has

AND

successful transition towards a brighter and prosperous future.

US pressure to step down is key- the military doesn’t have to relinquish their whole role- they just need to get out of the way

Leila Hilal is co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation and an editor on the Middle East Channel. Khaled Elgindy is a Visiting Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution 11-25-2011 Foreign Policy “Egypt needs a new road map, not just elections” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/25/egypt_needs_a_new_road_map_not_just_elections

In any event, removing the SCAF from

AND

end up on the wrong side of history.

The SCAF is willing to step down-reminding them of the benefits of civilian rule is key

Philippe Droz-Vincent is assistant professor of political science and teaches at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques in Paris. His work currently focuses on political regimes, armies, and transitions from authoritarianism in the Middle East 11-10-2011 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “Is Military Rule in Egypt Really Temporary?” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/11/10/is-military-rule-in-egypt-really-temporary/71dj

The end of Hosni Mubarak’s regime marks a

AND

a new posture in this time of uncertainty.

US Rule of Law model is key to contain conflict- wars don’t happen because of knee jerk reactions to political events but rather because of structural factors and systems of governance- ours is the best at suppressing conflict

Lambakis, 2001 (Steven Lambakis, senior defense analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and the author of On the Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Policy Review, “Space Weapons: Refuting the Critics” February 1, google)

The case against deploying weapons in space rests

AND

war or escalation with care, not dispatch.

Now is a critical time for global rule of law

Ryan Suto is the Regional President of the American Constitution Society and recently moderated a panel discussion on the issue of WikiLeaks and the Constitution, Friday, July 15, 2011, “Judicial Diplomacy: The International Impact of the Supreme Court”, http://jurist.org/dateline/2011/07/ryan-suto-judicial-diplomacy.php,

We are at a critical moment in world

AND

is an opportunity that should not be wasted.

Egyptian rule of law will be modeled globally

Salem 11 (Mohamed Anis, Director – Development Works and Coordinator – UN Working Group in the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, “Return of the Egyptian model?”, 3/10, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1038/op201.htm)

Taken together, there was not much left

AND

more integration. Meanwhile, expert predictions abound.

Solvency

JECT solves and avoids domestic political backlash

Frida Berrigan (Senior Program Associate of the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation) May 2000 “Beyond the School of the Americas:

U.S. Military Training Programs Here and Abroad” http://www.worldpolicy.org/projects/arms/reports/miltraining.htm

The House and Senate foreign operations sub-

AND

from receiving U.S. military training.

Insiders agree – the SCAF is just fatigued in its role – lack of training is the root cause – the plan solves

Charles M. Sennott (Vice President, Executive Editor and co-founder of GlobalPost) January 2, 2012 “The 'black box' of Egyptian military power” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/egypt/120101/the-black-box-egyptian-military-power

As Ambassador in Washington for a decade until

AND

see the discipline breaking down,” said Fahmy.

Topicality

JCET can do rule of law training- and it comes from a separate budget in the DOD

ISACSON AND BALL ‘6, Director of Programs – Center for International Policy and Senior Research Fellow at the Center for International Development and Conflict Management – University of Maryland

Adam and Nicole, Short of the Goal:  US Policy and Poorly Performing States ed. Birdsall et. al. p.431, http://www.cgdev.org/doc/shortofthegoal/chap13.pdf

Programs established by the Defense Department during the

AND

. —Health care courses: 26 students.

Counterinterp- Democracy assistance is divided into four categories: CMR falls under governance.

McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)

U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies

AND

a result of U.S. assistance.

Prefer our interp

Education- the SCAF is a key political actor in Egypt to ignore engagement with them would be asinine

Democracy assistance has been done mil to mil

Mitchell and Phillips, 2008 (Lincoln A., Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and David L., Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director, “Enhancing  Democracy Assistance” January acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.14-15)

Reform the Security Sector Organs of the security

AND

.

and operations.

Overlimiting is bad- there is a deficiency of solvency mechs on this topic- allowing a broader topic leads teams to gravitate towards more sustainable affs meaning less cases that require prep

No distinction security assistance and democracy assistance – their interp limits out all affs

Adelman 7 (Carol, Hudson Inst., “Effectively Advancing Security Interests”, Harvard Int’l Review, http://hir.harvard.edu/economics-of-national-security/foreign-aid?page=0,2&Harvard-AES%3ASS-auth%3A1_4=)

The third pillar of the US foreign aid

AND

of the United States has not been consistent.

Their offense is stupid

We don’t explode limits- aff still have to engage the military to do democratic things- we don’t allow weapons transfers

They still have access to their core ground i.e democracy in Egypt is bad- not having research on the SCAF in Egypt is criminal

Egypt is unique- the SCAF is the government so engagement with them is legit

Have a high threshold for voting on topicality- the race to find the most limiting interpretation causes a substance crowd out and incentivizes going for T which is why I know more about nuclear strategy than Kearney

Neolib

Predictions are inevitable and good

George Friedman (founder of Stratfor) May 2008 “The Love of One’s Own and the Importance of Place” Stratfor

Forecasting is built into the human condition.

AND

if the world were to some degree predictable.

Violence is objectively decreasing due to neoloib- spreading those ideals is key to solve conflict

Pinker 11 Steven Pinker is Professor of psychology at Harvard University "Violence Vanquished" Sept 24 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html

 With all its wars, murder and

AND

rights revolutions coincided with the electronic global village.

Neoliberal democracy solves extinction

Henry Teune, Political Science Department at the University of Pennsylvania, May, 2002 “Global Democracy”, The Annals of The American Academy of Political and Social Science, 581 Annals 22, Lexis

During the past three decades, social scientists

AND

century's end, following the spread of democracy. 

Consult Cong

Framing: Permutations don’t have to be topical and counterplan competition should be based on the maximum action the CP allows, also cps have to be textually and functionally competitive

Perm: Do the counterplan then the plan

Time-based competition is bad: shifts debate away from the topic to time-sensitive uniqueness arguments, justifies delay CPs- makes it impossible to be AFF- and discourages argument depth. Also, “immediately” isn’t in the plan text.

Perm: do the counterplan

Certainty-based competition is bad: makes it impossible to weigh the AFF; there are infinite, unpredictable conditions, shifts debate away from the topic, and “should” does not mean ‘mandatory.’

Atlas, 1999 (Collaboration, “Use of shall, should, may can” rd13doc.cern.ch/Atlas/DaqSoft/sde/inspect/shall.html)

shall' describes something that is mandatory. If

AND

be discarded entirely, so much the better.

Counterplans that include the possibility of the whole plan are bad- moot entirety of 1AC offense and focus the debate on trivial net benefits and rigged say yes questions. Anti-educational because the neg never has to engage with the aff

Certainty is key- clear stance is key to US cred

Michele Kelemen February 11, 2011 National Public Radio “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say” http://www.npr.org/2011/02/11/133661083/u-s-could-use-egypt-to-boost-credibility-some-say

Miller says this is part of a long

AND

card, Atallah says, this is it.

b. Their “say yes” arguments prove the answer is predetermined, so the CP doesn’t solve its net benefit.

8.  Rising expectations- Obama will not continue to consult Congress; there’s only a risk of rising expectations, which link turns the net benefit.

Stevens, August 29 (Ray Steven, FoxNews, “President Obama -- The Blamer-in-Chief” 2011, google)

The fact is, President Obama doesn’t really

AND

of free enterprise, fiscal responsibility and fairness.

SCAF

Egypt military relations are key to naval power projection

Said, Military and Tech Advisor - Al Ahram Center, 04 (Assessing the United States-EgyptianMilitary and Security Relations, acpss.ahram.org.eg/eng/ahram/2004/7/5/STUD8.HTM)

As a result of the Camp David peace

AND

it routinely waives this regulation for American warships.

Solves major power war—biggest impact.

Conway et al, 2007 (James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, google)

Deter major power war. No other disruption

AND

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

They backed off civil society crackdown but they did it- also disproves the impact

Leila Fadel and Joby Warrick 12-30-2011 Washington Post “Egyptian military gambles by raiding pro-democracy groups” http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/rights-leaders-in-egypt-condemn-raids-on-pro-democracy-groups/2011/12/30/gIQAsc4RQP_story.html

By storming the offices of international and domestic

AND

of three raided American organizations remained closed Friday.

They will say yes- they realize democracy is inevitable

Stratfor May 19 2011 “Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood on the March, but Cautiously” http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110518-egyptian-muslim-brotherhood-march-cautiously

Focusing on whether the Supreme Council of the

AND

the underlying reality of power remains the same.

They will say yes- reverence for the US military

Mark Thompson Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter covered national security in Washington since 1979 February 1, 2011 TIME “Sharing Democracy With the Egyptian Military” http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/02/01/sharing-democracy-with-the-egyptian-military/

"This new generation of Egyptian officers has

AND

exposure to the U.S. military."

Even if they still maintain some political power they are willing to step down

David D Kirkpatrick 1-11-2012 New York Times “Carter Says Egypt’s Military Is Likely to Retain Some Political Powers” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world/middleeast/jimmy-carter-expects-egypt-military-to-keep-some-powers.html

 “ ‘Full civilian control’ is a

AND

civilian political leaders could compromise, he said.

Politics

No deal

Kathleen Hunter and Steven Sloan http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-19/u-s-payroll-tax-cut-conferees-standing-firm-on-differences.html

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Congressional

AND

extension. The payroll tax funds Social Security.

Keystone thumps the DA

ABC News, Read more: http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/news/national/obama-turns-down-oil-pipeline-says-republicans-forced-his-hand-with-arbitrary-deadline#ixzz1jynzzvI1 Posted: 01/19/2012 Last Updated: 18 hours and 13 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - In a politically explosive decision,

AND

and public safety must still be weighed too.

Obama PC low-

b. structural issues

Steven E. Schier is Dorothy H. and Edward C. Congdon Professor of Political Science at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota Presidential Studies Quarterly December 1, 2011 “The contemporary presidency: the presidential authority problem and the political power trap” lexis

The evidence presented here depicts a decline in

AND

backing for a president than in times past.

No Link- 1AC Berrigan evidence describes the process of JCET as being shielded from Congress- they wouldn’t know until after the bill passes

Politics DA’s that are based on political capital are bad- can get links to backlash but not based on political capital which discusses how Obama pushes the plan- forces the aff to defend a process that fiat is supposed to circumvent

Payroll tax doesn’t help the economy- doesn’t help hiring or consumer spending

Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul 8-30-2011 New York Times “The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut” http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/

However, there is no evidence that the

AND

only 4 percent cited the cost of labor.

Payroll tax bill also extend unemployment benefits

Washington Post 1-18-2012 “Congress revisiting payroll tax cut, jobless benefits as round 2 of bruising battle begins” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns/congress-revisiting-payroll-tax-cut-jobless-benefits-as-round-2-of-bruising-battle-begins/2012/01/18/gIQAN8pL7P_story.html

With television lights glaring, 20 lawmakers will

AND

Social Security payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits.

Extension of unemployment benefits causes wage rigidity- prevents any recovery- also causes increased unemployment

David C. Rose is a professor of economics at the University of Missouri-St. Louis 9-20-2011 Christian Science Monitor “Why Congress should not extend unemployment benefits” http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0920/Why-Congress-should-not-extend-unemployment-benefits

But in reality, extending unemployment benefits again

AND

lower. This prolongs the unemployment of others.

1AR Cards

SCAF

SCAF doesn’t have to completely relinquish their economic holdings- they just need to step down from political power- their current track causes a purge of the Armed forces

Chibli Mallat is the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Visiting Professor of Islamic Legal Studies at Harvard Law School. He is also the Presidential Professor of Law at the University of Utah S.J. Quinney College of Law. Mallat has litigated several international criminal law cases, and has advised governments, corporations and individuals in Middle Eastern and international law Dec. 27, 2011 The Jurist “Saving the Egyptian Revolution from the Military” http://jurist.org/forum/2011/12/chibli-mallat-egypt-military.php

If SCAF refuses to relinquish political power and

AND

be slowly reduced in proportion to the economy.

Training has a greater effect than weapons transfers- their no influence args assume weapons transfers

Nelly Lahoud, et al. PhD Colonel David DiMeo, PhD Colonel Cindy Jebb, PhD1 Arie Perliger, PhD Ruth Beitler, PhD Major John Ringquist, PhD This team of West Point faculty members is from the Departments of Social Sciences (including the Combating Terrorism Center), Foreign Languages, and History June 29, 2011 “The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace” http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/White-Paper-Final.pdf

The clear conclusion from Table 1 is that

AND

region and by al-Qa‘ida.]

Critique

Overemphasis on method destroys effectiveness of the discipline

Wendt, Handbook of IR, 2002 p. 68

It should be stressed that in advocating a

AND

a conversation should continue on all three levels.

Round Robin, Round 5

Vs. Emory CP, Judge: Watts

New Plan

The Department of Defense should offer a substantial increase in the Center for Civil-Military Relations program to Egypt for the purposes of increasing democratic rule of law.

Advantages:

·         Turkey Influence Bad (Israel war, Turkey/Greece war, Balkans war, Iran war, ME war -- > nuclear and bio war)

·         Rule of Law advantage (global ROL, conflict escalation, CMR, SCAF will step down)

New Solvency Contention:

Insiders agree – the SCAF is just fatigued in its role – lack of training is the root cause – the plan solves

Charles M. Sennott (Vice President, Executive Editor and co-founder of GlobalPost) January 2, 2012 “The 'black box' of Egyptian military power” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/egypt/120101/the-black-box-egyptian-military-power

As Ambassador in Washington for a decade until 2008, … That’s where you see the discipline breaking down,” said Fahmy.

Key to ensure Egyptian leaders adhere to democratic norms

William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/

While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with the ruling generals … That makes the education of the generals the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

Those who trained with the US are the least likely to use violence

Tara McKelvey, a 2011 Guggenheim fellow, is a correspondent for Newsweek and The Daily Beast Oct 13, 2011 The Daily Beast “U.S.-Funded Democracy Crushers?” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/13/egyptian-military-u-s-funded-democracy-crushers.html

Those lessons in democracy seem … that the American investment in their leaders and their institution has been a sound one.

CCMR military training key to stable democratic transition

 (Clement Henry professor of government and middle east studies at the University of Texas at Autstin, and Robert Springborg, professor of national security affairs at the naval post graduate school and program manager for the middle east at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military, Foreign Affairs Online, February 21, 2011, )

Established military rule in Egypt is certainly not in the … To recall a chant inciting Cairo’s January 25 movement: “Tunisia is the solution.”

2AC CASE CARDS

(Solvency) We are not imposing on the Egypt- they want military training

Andrew J. Shapiro Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs Remarks at the Center for New American Security Washington, DC September 27, 2011 “The Role of U.S. Security Assistance in Today's Challenges” http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1109/S00908/the-role-of-us-security-assistance-in-todays-challenges.htm

When we provide security assistance through our Foreign Military Financing program to buy U.S. defense systems, …  and wanted to ensure it continued.

(AT: Turkey SP Turns)

Turkey soft power can’t solve

Barçin Yinanç September 23, 2011 Hurriyet Daily News “'Arab Spring triggered problems that Turkey can’t solve on its own'” http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=arab-spring-triggered-problems-that-turkey-can8217t-solve-on-its-own-2011-09-23

As Turkey is becoming more influential, … crisis becomes really explosive, Turkish financial institutions will be very vulnerable as well.

Turkey soft power fails

Altunışık 2011 (Meliha Benli Altunışık, June 2011, “Challenges to Turkey’s ‘Soft Power’ in the Middle East,” TESEV Foreign Policy Programme, http://www.tesev.org.tr/UD_OBJS/PDF/DPT/OD/YYN/Meliha_Altunisik_FINAL.pdf)

Although Turkey’s attractiveness in the region has increased … the current Arab uprisings further complicated the scene for Turkey and presented more complex challenges.

Turkey soft power doesn’t solve conflict

Anthony Shadid September 18, 2011 New York Times “Turkey Predicts Alliance With Egypt as Regional Anchors” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/middleeast/turkey-predicts-partnership-with-egypt-as-regional-anchors.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

The phrase “zero problems” is a famous dictum written by Mr. Davutoglu, … defense system has rankled neighboring Iran.

No risk of great power conflict in Central Asia: incentives to de-escalate and stable balance of power

Zhao Huasheng, director of the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies at Fudan University, February 2005, CEF Quarterly, http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/CEF_Quarterly_Winter_2005.doc.pdf, p. 31

China, Russia, and the United States will not go to open confrontation … open confrontation in any forms.

2AC AT: SCAF DA (SCAF WILL SAY YES)

Egypt military relations are key to naval power projection

Said, Military and Tech Advisor - Al Ahram Center, 04 (Assessing the United States-EgyptianMilitary and Security Relations, acpss.ahram.org.eg/eng/ahram/2004/7/5/STUD8.HTM)

As a result of the Camp David peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979, … it routinely waives this regulation for American warships.

Solves major power war—biggest impact.

Conway et al, 2007 (James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, google)

Deter major power war. No other disruption is as potentially disastrous … sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

They backed off civil society crackdown but they did it- also disproves the impact

Leila Fadel and Joby Warrick 12-30-2011 Washington Post “Egyptian military gambles by raiding pro-democracy groups” http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/rights-leaders-in-egypt-condemn-raids-on-pro-democracy-groups/2011/12/30/gIQAsc4RQP_story.html

By storming the offices of international and … three raided American organizations remained closed Friday.

They will say yes- they realize democracy is inevitable

Stratfor May 19 2011 “Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood on the March, but Cautiously” http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110518-egyptian-muslim-brotherhood-march-cautiously

Focusing on whether the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is sincere … reality of power remains the same.

They will say yes- reverence for the US military

Mark Thompson Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter covered national security in Washington since 1979 February 1, 2011 TIME “Sharing Democracy With the Egyptian Military” http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/02/01/sharing-democracy-with-the-egyptian-military/

"This new generation of Egyptian officers has been exposed to the American … in Cairo has to do with the Egyptian military's exposure to the U.S. military."

Even if they still maintain some political power they are willing to step down

David D Kirkpatrick 1-11-2012 New York Times “Carter Says Egypt’s Military Is Likely to Retain Some Political Powers” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world/middleeast/jimmy-carter-expects-egypt-military-to-keep-some-powers.html

 “ ‘Full civilian control’ is a little excessive, I think,” Mr. Carter said, after … another point where civilian political leaders could compromise, he said.

1AR “SAY YES” DEBATE

They will cede power- think its key to power projection

Steven A. Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR 8-18-2011 “Egypt's Post-Mubarak Political Uncertainty” http://www.cfr.org/africa/egypts-post-mubarak-political-uncertainty/p25652

All the signs suggest the military would … to be an effective fighting force.

Despite problems they will step down

Ramadan A. Kader - The Egyptian Gazette 12-26-2011 “Why the military should step aside” http://213.158.162.45/~egyptian/index.php?action=news&id=22800&title=Why%20the%20military%20should%20step%20aside

This prevalent mistrust starkly contradicts …  the time factor is very important.

2AC AT: TOPICALITY – DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE

Counterinterp- Democracy assistance is divided into four categories: CMR falls under governance.

McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)

U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies may differ somewhat in their definition … across-the-board improvements as a result of U.S. assistance.

Democracy assistance has been done mil to mil

Mitchell and Phillips, 2008 (Lincoln A., Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and David L., Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director, “Enhancing  Democracy Assistance” January acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.14-15)

Reform the Security Sector Organs of the security sector should exist to protect civil liberties, … oversight of military budgets and operations.

2AC AT: ORIENTALISM K

Our role of the ballot is to evaluate the normative effects of the plan- anything else excludes 9 min of 1AC offense – it does not prove the 1ac undesirable- the judge should choose the specific set of representations that best test plan desirability - knowledge production is linear - sufficient reasonability filters their epistemology args – prefer specific warrants over vague buzzwords - saving a life is a prerequisite to enhancing its value.

Overemphasis on method destroys effectiveness of the discipline

Wendt, Handbook of IR, 2002 p. 68

It should be stressed that in advocating a pragmatic view … but we certainly believe a conversation should continue on all three levels.

Alt gets Bogged Down

Carl Boggs (Los Angeles Campus Full Time Faculty Professor) 1997 “The Great Retreat”

The decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America poses a series of great dilemmas … collec- tive interests that had vanished from civil society.75 

There is no connection between orientalist discourse and actual violence – their arguments mistake causation and correlation.

Andrew J. Rotter, prof @ colgate. "Saidism without said: orientalism and US diplomatic history" The american historical review, 105(4) 2000 p. 1208-10

A third and yet more troubling problem for historians reading Orientalism is Said's …  That is a fact; what it has to do with Moby Dick is less clear.8  9

2AC AT: ISRAEL D/A

Non- unique Peace Process

Jackson Diehl, pub. date: 6-19-2011, Deputy Editorial Page Editor, The Washington Post, “Why is Obama so tough on Israel and timid on Syria?,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-is-obama-so-tough-on-israel-and-timid-on-syria/2011/06/19/AGmcB3bH_story.html

One of the hallmarks of the Arab Spring has … U.S. power and influence in the Middle East.

U.S. has resumed aid to the PA.

Daniel Doherty  7/13/2011 (Townhall) "Reexamining America's Foreign Aid to the Palestinian Authority" <http://townhall.com/columnists/danieldoherty/2011/07/13/reexamining_americas_foreign_aid_to_the_palestinian_authority>

Successfully facilitating comprehensive peace agreements…the moment, however, the money appears to be making a difference.

Israel supports IMET- think of it as the US buying influence in Egypt

Daniel Darling an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company February 4, 2011 “How Much Influence Does $1.3 Billion Buy the U.S. With Egypt’s Military?” Faster Times http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/04/how-much-influence-does-1-3-billion-buy-the-u-s-with-egypts-military/

Since 1979, following the Camp David Accords and the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, … considerable influence in Egypt.

Relations are resilient

Ambassador Dore Gold, Vol. 9, No. 23   8 April 2010 Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs “A Crisis in U.S.-Israel Relations: Have We Been Here Before?” http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=376&PID=0&IID=3655

Is it possible for the U.S.-Israel relationship to recover from the recent tensions? If history is any guide … continuing to move toward a military nuclear program.

2AC AT: POLITICS (PTC)

No warming – scratch any card dated before ours – new data disproves your impacts

James Taylor (senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News) July 27 2011 “New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism” http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/)

NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through … officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

Obama PC low- He refuses to engage Congress

Helene Cooper 12-28-2011 New York Times “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/us/politics/obama-gains-reputation-as-distant-in-washington.html?_r=2&ref=politics

Mr. Obama, in general, does not go out of his way to play the glad-handing, …, you can get things done,” said Representative Dennis A. Cardoza, Democrat of California.

Military funding solves backlash- they will insulate it

Frida Berrigan (Senior Program Associate of the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation) May 2000 “Beyond the School of the Americas: U.S. Military Training Programs Here and Abroad” http://www.worldpolicy.org/projects/arms/reports/miltraining.htm

The House and Senate foreign operations sub-committees oversee … the spirit of legislation designed to bar nations with records of human rights abuses from receiving U.S. military training.

Payroll tax doesn’t help the economy- doesn’t help hiring or consumer spending

Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul 8-30-2011 New York Times “The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut” http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/

However, there is no evidence that the … 23 percent of businesses said poor sales were their No. 1 problem and only 4 percent cited the cost of labor.