Transition Advantage 1AC
Military perceived as strong-arming the public – ensures distrust now
Daniel Brumberg is a special adviser for the U.S. Institute of Peace's Muslim World Initiative, where he focuses on democratization and political reform in the Middle East and wider Islamic world July 13,2011 The Atlantic “The Path to Democracy in Egypt” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/the-path-to-democracy-in-egypt/241712/1/
Much like the frustrated drivers at that intersection
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these existing forces a share of electoral power.
This ensures Al Qaeda takeover – US key to prevent
Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
The uprising in Egypt is far from over
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democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
Maintaining a peaceful transition key to discredit them
Dr Sayed Khatab is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia. He is a Co-Editor of the peer referred International Journal of Humanity & Islam Presented to The 24th Annual Conference of the International Association for Conflict Management July 3-6, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey “Egyptian Revolution and its Impact on the Stability in the Middle East”
The Revolution in Egypt put radicalism and al
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change i.e. violent Jihad.16
Unstable transition wrecks the Egyptian economy
Egypt News 12 July 2011 “Continued strikes threaten Egypt” http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/20376.html
Continued strikes in Cairo's Tahrir Square and other
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consequently many of Egypt s other economic sectors.
Global economy is fragile- new instability in Egypt would collapse it
Michael Schuman writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d
At first glance, the upheaval on the
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prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.
Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of
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Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
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to an increase in the use of force.
Multiple nuclear wars
Michael Panzner (Faculty Member at the New
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from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138
Rising angst will also wreak havoc with links
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as the beginnings of a new world war.
US civil military aid is key to the transition- have to ensure future generals are accustomed to democratic norms
William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
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the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.
Expanding E-IMET key to advancing CMR
Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
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, to receive civil-military affairs training.
Stable transition key to counter Iranian regional expansion - military aid key to solve
David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense July 25th 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges--Policy Recommendations” http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=
For the past thirty years, Washington has
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exceeds the $250 million appropriated last year.
Ensures miscalculation that causes regional nuclear escalation
Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU Feb 06, 2007 UPI “Ending Iranian Defiance” http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html
That Iran stands today able to challenge or
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severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
This is most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”
The basis of the argument that escalation is
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of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.
Spirals out of control – causes CBW use
James A. Russell (managing editor of
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Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
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, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Extinction
Jorge Hirsch, 4-10-06
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Iran is likely to respond to any US
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will all be gone before anybody has prevailed.
Bioweapons are extinction- more probable than nuke war
Richard Ochs: 7-9-02
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Of all the weapons of mass destruction,
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such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
Plan
The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.
Middle East Regional Heg Advantage 1AC
US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region
Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As I will show shortly, in recent
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, they question U.S. credibility.
IMET key to US Middle East presence- prevents prolif
Brian Burton, Bacevich fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Washington 28 March 2011 “Refocus Mideast Presence” Defense News http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6072558&c=FEA&s=COM
Still, the key U.S.
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the mostly peaceful unraveling of the Mubarak regime.
Prolif makes miscalculation likely. Cold War deterrence model is not applicable
Cimbala 08 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008, pages 113 – 132Informaworld]
The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents
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the avoidance of war outside of Europe.19
Egypt key to US Middle East power projection
Steven Cook Senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the council on foreign relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy August 2009 “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations CONTINGENCY P LANN ING MEMORANDUM NO. 4
Egypt is a difficult yet critical U.
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seeks to achieve its goals in the region.
That’s key to prevent regional conflicts from escalating- Iran proliferates and multiple other hotpots would escalate
Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. JAN 24, 2011, VOL. 16, NO. 18 The Weekly Standard “The Price of Power” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1
Today the international situation is also one of
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table and the table will not fall over.
Iran Prolif is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war
Kam 2007 (Ephraim Kam, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf)
The serious consequences for Israel of Iran's possession
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of reducing the risk do not yet exist.
