MoState BN Egypt Aff

• Tournament: UNI | Round: 1 | Opponent: Indiana | Judge: Zarazan
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• Plan

  The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt. 

  Military perceived as strong-arming the public – ensures distrust now
  Daniel Brumberg is a special adviser for the U.S. Institute of Peace's Muslim World Initiative, where he focuses on democratization and political reform in the Middle East and wider Islamic world July 13,2011 The Atlantic “The Path to Democracy in Egypt” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/the-path-to-democracy-in-egypt/241712/1/
  Much like the frustrated drivers at that intersection
  AND
  these existing forces a share of electoral power.

  This ensures Al Qaeda takeover – US key to prevent
  Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
  The uprising in Egypt is far from over
  AND
  democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
  Maintaining a peaceful transition key to discredit them
  Dr Sayed Khatab is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia. He is a Co-Editor of the peer referred International Journal of Humanity & Islam Presented to The 24th Annual Conference of the International Association for Conflict Management July 3-6, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey “Egyptian Revolution and its Impact on the Stability in the Middle East”
  The Revolution in Egypt put radicalism and al
  AND
  change i.e. violent Jihad.16
  Unstable transition wrecks the Egyptian economy
  Egypt News 12 July 2011 “Continued strikes threaten Egypt” http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/20376.html
  Continued strikes in Cairo's Tahrir Square and other
  AND
  consequently many of Egypt s other economic sectors.

  Global economy is fragile- new instability in Egypt would collapse it
  Michael Schuman writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d
  At first glance, the upheaval on the
  AND
  prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.

  Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support—also causes great power transitions
  Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of
  AND
  Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
  Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
  AND
  to an increase in the use of force.  

  These conflicts escalate
  Mathew J. Burrows (counselor in the
  AND
  09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf
  Of course, the report encompasses more than
  AND
  a more dog-eat-dog world. 

  Multiple nuclear wars
  Michael Panzner (Faculty Member at the New
  AND
  from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138
  Rising angst will also wreak havoc with links
  AND
  as the beginnings of a new world war.

  US civil military aid is key to the transition- have to train top level officials
  William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
  While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
  AND
  the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

  Expanding E-IMET key to advancing CMR
  Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
  Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
  AND
  , to receive civil-military affairs training.

  Stable transition key to counter Iranian regional expansion - military aid key to solve
  David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense July 25th 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations” http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=
  For the past thirty years, Washington has
  AND
  exceeds the $250 million appropriated last year.
  Ensures miscalculation that causes regional nuclear escalation
  Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU Feb 06, 2007 UPI “Ending Iranian Defiance” http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html
  That Iran stands today able to challenge or
  AND
  severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
  This is most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
  The basis of the argument that escalation is
  AND
  of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

  Spirals out of control – causes CBW use
  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
  AND
  , with substantial risk for the entire world.
  Extinction
  Jorge Hirsch, 4-10-06
  AND 

  Iran is likely to respond to any US
  AND
  will all be gone before anybody has prevailed.
  Bioweapons are extinction- more probable than nuke war
  Richard Ochs: 7-9-02,  has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html  
  Of all the weapons of mass destruction,
  AND
  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
  Advantage Two is Regional Hegemony

  US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region
  Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
  As I will show shortly, in recent
  AND
  , they question U.S. credibility.

  IMET key to US Middle East presence- prevents prolif- contains Iran influence
  Brian Burton, Bacevich fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Washington 28 March 2011 “Refocus Mideast Presence” Defense News http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6072558&c=FEA&s=COM
  Still, the key U.S.
  AND
  the mostly peaceful unraveling of the Mubarak regime.

  Prolif makes miscalculation likely. Cold War deterrence model is not applicable
  Cimbala 08 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008, pages 113 – 132Informaworld]
  The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents
  AND
  the avoidance of war outside of Europe.19
  Egypt key to US Middle East power projection
  Steven Cook Senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the council on foreign relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy August 2009 “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations CONTINGENCY P LANN ING MEMORANDUM NO. 4
  Egypt is a difficult yet critical U.
  AND
  seeks to achieve its goals in the region.
  That’s key to prevent regional conflicts from escalating- Iran proliferates and multiple other hotpots would escalate
  Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.  JAN 24, 2011, VOL. 16, NO. 18  The Weekly Standard “The Price of Power” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1
  Today the international situation is also one of
  AND
  table and the table will not fall over.
  Iran Prolif is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war
  Kam 2007 (Ephraim Kam, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf)
  The serious consequences for Israel of Iran's possession
  AND
  of reducing   the risk do not yet exist.

  Current aid reprogramming non-uniques all DA’s without plan specific link evidence
  Trofimov 2011 (Yaroslav Trofimov, “Egypt Opposes U.S.'s Democracy Funding,” June 14, 2011, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383123301579668.html)

  -A U.S. plan to
  AND
  against the future of Egypt," he said.

  Hegemony is sustainable and solves global war – there is no alternative
  Robert Knowles (Assistant Professor – New York University School of Law) 2009 “American hegemony and the foreign affairs constitution” Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 41 Lexis
  First, the "hybrid" hegemonic model
  AND
  and they have thus far proved premature. 384 

  History is on our side – theres zero chance that war erupts or escalates in a world of the aff – there is only a risk of war if you vote neg
  Bradley Thayer (Associate Professor in the Department
  AND
  2007 “American Empire” Routledge, page 42
  Peace, like good health, is not
  AND
  not sleep; it never takes a rest.
  U.S. withdrawal is comparatively worse than current commitments – hotspot escalation and economic collapse would draw America back into a number of nuclear conflicts.
  Robert J. Lieber (Professor of Government
  AND
  Strategy for the 21st Century p 53-4
  Withdrawal from foreign commitments might seem to be
  AND
  civilization’s retreat into a few fortified enclaves.”23

  
  
  

UNI Rd 3 - With K Underview

• Tournament: UNI | Round: 3 | Opponent: Conc | Judge: Spring
  
  

• Plan

  The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt. 

  Advantage One is Transitions

  Military perceived as strong-arming the public – ensures distrust now

  Daniel Brumberg is a special adviser for the U.S. Institute of Peace's Muslim World Initiative, where he focuses on democratization and political reform in the Middle East and wider Islamic world July 13,2011 The Atlantic “The Path to Democracy in Egypt” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/the-path-to-democracy-in-egypt/241712/1/

  Much like the frustrated drivers at that intersection

  AND 

  these existing forces a share of electoral power.

  This ensures Al Qaeda takeover – US key to prevent

  Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google

  The uprising in Egypt is far from over

  AND 

  democracy from being hijacked by something much worse. 

  Maintaining a peaceful transition key to discredit them

  Dr Sayed Khatab is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia. He is a Co-Editor of the peer referred International Journal of Humanity & Islam Presented to The 24th Annual Conference of the International Association for Conflict Management July 3-6, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey “Egyptian Revolution and its Impact on the Stability in the Middle East” 

  The Revolution in Egypt put radicalism and al

  AND 

  change i.e. violent Jihad.16

  Unstable transition wrecks the Egyptian economy

  Egypt News 12 July 2011 “Continued strikes threaten Egypt” http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/20376.html

  Continued strikes in Cairo's Tahrir Square and other 

  AND 

  consequently many of Egypt s other economic sectors.

  Global economy is fragile- new instability in Egypt would collapse it

  Michael Schuman writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d

  At first glance, the upheaval on the 

  AND 

  prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.

  Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support—also causes great power transitions

  Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214

  Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline 

  AND 

  to an increase in the use of force.  

  These conflicts escalate

  Mathew J. Burrows (counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC), PhD in European History from Cambridge University) and Jennifer Harris (a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit) April 2009 “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf

  Of course, the report encompasses more than 

  AND 

  a more dog-eat-dog world. 

  Multiple nuclear wars

  Michael Panzner (Faculty Member at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase) 2008 Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138

  Rising angst will also wreak havoc with links 

  AND 

  as the beginnings of a new world war.

  US civil military aid is key to the transition- have to train top level officials

  William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/

  While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with 

  AND 

  the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

  Expanding E-IMET key to advancing CMR

  Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf

  Without a doubt, the Special Forces, 

  AND 

  , to receive civil-military affairs training.

  Stable transition key to counter Iranian regional expansion - military aid key to solve

  David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense July 25th 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges--Policy Recommendations” http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=

  For the past thirty years, Washington has 

  AND 

  exceeds the $250 million appropriated last year.

  Ensures miscalculation that causes regional nuclear escalation

  Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU Feb 06, 2007 UPI “Ending Iranian Defiance” http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html

  That Iran stands today able to challenge or 

  AND 

  severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

  This is most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework

  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”

  The basis of the argument that escalation is 

  AND 

  of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

  Spirals out of control – causes CBW use

  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined 

  AND 

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Extinction

  Jorge Hirsch, 4-10-06, Professor of Physics at the University of California at San Diego & Fellow of the American Physical Society, last accesced 6-24-09.

  Iran is likely to respond to any US 

  AND 

  will all be gone before anybody has prevailed. 

  Bioweapons are extinction- more probable than nuke war

  Richard Ochs: 7-9-02,  has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,”   

  Of all the weapons of mass destruction, 

  AND 

  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

  Underview

  State behavior is driven by security competition according to the dictates of offensive realism.  Critical theory does not have the ability to unseat realism as the dominant discourse of IR your impact is inevitable

  John J. Mearsheimer, realism heavyweight champion, 1995 International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1. (Summer 1995), pp. 82-93.

  Realists believe that state behavior is largely shaped 

  AND 

  its commanding position in the international relations literature.  

  You should evaluate policies based on their consequences - prioritizing ethical considerations does not work for policymaking. 

  William H. Shaw. PhD. Contemporary Ethics: Taking Account of Utilitarianism. P. 171-2. 1999

  Utilitarianism ties right and wrong to the promotion 

  AND 

  against it when viewed as a public philosophy. 

  Rejecting otherwise effective policies on a priori grounds is greatly inferior to real-world analyses capable of social change – mistaken ontology can be corrected – assessing things like solvency is the only way to create durable solutions**

  David E. McClean Presented at the 2001 Annual Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope online

  Our new president, possessing no towering intellect

  AND 

  People like George Soros come to mind here.

  The fact that international relations is constructed doesn’t deny the accuracy of our impact claims – violence still exists and only the 1ac solves it

  Darryl Jarvis (Director of the Research Institute for International Risk and Lecturer in International Relations, The University of Sydney) 2000 “International relations and the challenge of postmodernism” p. X

  Just because we acknowledge that the state is 

  AND 

  these ontological dilemmas that otherwise seem to preoccupy Ashley

  Social injustices are not the root cause of war. Eliminating war actually offers a better chance of solving injustices than vice versa***

  Joshua S. Goldstein, pub. date: 2001, Prof. of IR @ American University, Washington D.C. He is the author of a broad range of research works on international conflict, cooperation, and political economy, with a central focus on great-power relations and world order, War and Gender: How Gender Shapes the War System and Vice Versa, Cambridge University, pp. 412

  First, peace activists face a dilemma in 

  AND 

  of war seems to be empirically inadequate. 10

  Ignoring reality and available information causes extinction. 

  Andrew Bernstein. (Lecturer at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale). The Capitalist Manifesto: The Historic, Economic and Philosophic Case for Laissez Faire. 2005. p. 195. 

  Ayn Rand describes such a self-destructive 

  AND 

  anti-mind, is anti-life. 

  Prefer our empiricism over their epistemology concerns

  David Patrick (Associate Professor of I.R. Theory at the University of Central Florida) 2008 “Positivism ‘vs’ Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference?”, International Politics (2008), 45)

  As long ago as 1981, Yale Ferguson 

  AND 

  be what divides the international relations scene today. 

  AT ORIENTALISM
  There is no connection between orientalist discourse and actual violence – their arguments mistake causation and correlation.
  Andrew J. Rotter, prof @ colgate. "Saidism without said: orientalism and US diplomatic history" The american historical review, 105(4) 2000 p. 1208-10
  A third and yet more troubling problem for
  AND
  with Moby Dick is less clear.8  9
  Orientalist critiques make it impossible for either the West or the East to fully understand one another – replicating the same violence
  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique”
  For example, the curator for a recent
  AND
  views of Europe’s imperial Orientalists at their worst.

  Focus on language is a prison-house that kills human agency and makes real political action to stop violence and oppression impossible
  David McNally (professor of political science at York University) 1997 “in defense of history” p. 26-7
  We are witnessing today a new idealism,
  AND
  the rebuilding of mass movements of protest and resistance
  Orientalist critiques obscurity prevents infusion into the public sphere – its all unread academia
  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique”
  On the other hand, the practitioners of
  AND
  appears increasingly ossified, if not something worse.  
  CASE
  Military will frustrate the transition now- have to train them to be liberal
  Eric Westervelt National Public Radio Feb. 14, 2011 “For Egyptians, Trust Is Key As Army Takes Lead”
  The military leaders controlling Egypt after President Hosni
  AND
  "poodle" portrait is short-sighted.

  AT CAP
  Environmental collapse wont cause extinction
  Gregg Easterbrook (a senior fellow at The New Republic) July 2003 “We're All Gonna Die!”
  If we're talking about doomsday - the end
  AND
  of Things Past while lying in bed.
  No extinction
  Amy Kaleita (assistant professor of agricultural and biosystems engineering at Iowa State University) and Gregory Forbes (research analyst at the Pacific Research Institute) 2007 “Hysteria’s History”
  Apocalyptic stories about the irreparable, catastrophic damage
  AND
  should be based on reality, not hysteria.
  Elites will backlash in devastating civil wars
  Roger Terry (senior editor at the Ensign magazine) Economic Insanity. 1995.  pp. 137-138
  Given the fact that capitalism as we know
  AND
  more devastating than the one fought over slavery. 

  Growth solves AIDS, and democracy
  Leonard Silk (Professor, Economics, Pace University) Winter 1993 “Dangers of Slow Growth,” FOREIGN AFFAIRS p. 173-174.
  In the absence of such shifts of human
  AND
  and more liberal and open economies and societies.

  Extinction- Democracy
  Glen T. Martin May/June 1999 “Three States in the Dialectical Realization of Democracy-And the Constitution for the Federation of Earth,” ACROSS FRONTIERS, www.radford.edu/gmartin/three%20stages%20paper.htm
  . Only within a planetary framework of the
  AND
  concrete step in the dialectic of human liberation.

  The capitalist order is the foundation for US hegemony.
  Peter Gowan. "US Hegemony Today." Monthly Review. 2003.
  American hegemony since 1945 has been structurally different
  AND
  of international capital accumulation throughout the capitalist world.

  Anti-capitalism is rooted in emotionalism
  Andrew Bernstein. (Lecturer at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale). The Capitalist Manifesto: The Historic, Economic and Philosophic Case for Laissez Faire. 2005. p.199-200.
  In various forms, emotionalism (or anti
  AND
  Anti-capitalism is inherently anti-rational.

  Must reject this emotionalism that voids life of meaning and makes the worst violence possible.
  Andrew Bernstein. (Lecturer at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale). The Capitalist Manifesto: The Historic, Economic and Philosophic Case for Laissez Faire. 2005. p.198-9.
  Historically, the distilled essence of this view
  AND
  and capitalism to irrationalism and anti-capitalism. 

  AT SPANOS
  Spanos’ criticism causes abandonment of the public sphere and political marginalization – the alternative achieves nothing
  J. Russell Perkin (Associate Professor of English at Saint Mary's University) 1993 Postmodern Culture 3.3, “Theorizing the Culture Wars,” Project Muse
  My final criticism is that Spanos, by
  AND
  seems to me precisely what Spanos is recommending.
  This cedes power to aggressive and reactionary elites that replicate the worst forms of the violence that Spanos describes causing extinction
  Carl Boggs (Los Angeles Campus Full Time Faculty Professor) 1997 “The Great Retreat”
  The decline of the public sphere in late
  AND
  interests that had vanished from civil society.75  

  Spanos’ form of geneology is not emancipatory and has no way of translating into real world change
  Joseph D Lewandowski (Associate Professor and Philosophy Program Coordinator at The University of Central Missouri) 1994 Philosophy and Social Criticism, “Heidegger, literary theory and social criticism,” ed. DavidM. Rasmussen, P. 115-116
  The point to be made here is that
  AND
  a smoothly functioning diagram (p. 22l). 

  Their protest against imperialism empirically fails and creates the illusion that they create change – only by rejecting and realizing the futility of such protest will create real change
  Chelsey Clammer 2007, how nonviolence protects the state,
  Do anti-war protests really stop the
  AND
  notions of “activism” and “change.”

  Blaming imperialism for all oppression masks more violent forms of oppression – prefer our evidence, its comparative
  Fred Halliday (Middle East Report) 1999 “The Middle East at the Millennial Turn”
  Recent developments in the Middle East and the
  AND
  and oppressive social practices within the Middle East.  
  No Impact - Western power and imperialism doesn’t foster violent interventions
  Martin Shaw (Professor of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State”
  Furthermore, Western leaders have consistently sought to
  AND
  movements, rather than from the Western state. 

  Anti-imperialist strategies distort struggles for real global justice – resorting in massive violence in the periphery of your anti-western struggle
  Martin Shaw (Professor of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State”
  It is worth asking how the politics of
  AND
  its actual role in relation to the victims.

  Dissenting against American imperialism collapses current US hegemony
  Robert Kagan (senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is director of its U.S. Leadership Project) Spring 1998 “The Benevolent Empire”
  Those contributing to the growing chorus of antihegemony
  AND
  champagne  corks in celebration of the next American humbling 

  
  
• 
  
  

UNI Quarters

• Tournament: UNI | Round: Q | Opponent: Northwestern | Judge:
  
  

• AT: T

  We meet plan text says democracy assistance portions of E-IMET- 

  We meet Democracy assistance is divided into four categories: CMR falls under governance.

  McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)

  U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies 

  AND 

  a result of U.S. assistance.

  Democracy assistance includes the military—says the deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy.

  Democracy Digest, 2011 [6-1-11, Democracy Digest, “Linking grass roots to government in the ‘democracy bureaucracy’” demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/linking-grass-roots-to-government-in-the-democracy-bureaucracy/]

  Democracy assistance is more of an art than 

  AND 

  crowds out, very often, strategic vision.

  No precision, their interp solely excludes military aid it doesn’t give an interpretation for what exactly we get or what kind of affs there are.  Prefer mcmahon card

  E-IMET is democracy assistance

  Carothers, 1999 (Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment, “Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve” p. 52-53, google books)

  The Department of Defense increasingly emphasizes promotion in 

  AND 

  , as an important part of its program.

  Their interpretation is imprecise-no clear distinction between what is and isn’t topical

  Prefer our interp

  Intent to define- that’s key to predictable division of ground- contextual language is too imprecise ensures overlimiting the neg can always find some sloppy language that defines the aff outside the topic

  Aff flex outweighs limited solvency mechs on the topic mean the aff needs some room to maneuver

  Education precedes fairness-no university funds debate absent educational benefits, fairness is never precise, military education uniquely key to stable transition education

  Aff is reasonably topical neg should have the burden to prove a significant disad to our interp pure offense defense creates race to bottom encourages contrived t interps that are marginally better for limits

  2AC: PTX

  Assign warming zero percent probability – flawed models and predictions

  Craig D. Idso (founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) and Sherwood B. Idso (president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) February 2011 “Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future Pursuing the Prudent Path” http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/prudentpath.pdf

  As presently constituted, earth’s atmosphere contains just 

  AND 

  meet the much greater challenge to which they aspire

  SKFTA doesn’t spillover to security.

  Kim, 2010 (Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute and MA in Poli Sci from Korea University, “Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances” google) 

  Table 1 summarizes the findings of the case 

  AND 

  reinvigorate the currently stale debate on the important subject 

  The vote is more than 8 weeks away.

  Inside U.S. Trade, 9/9 (“CHAMBER MAY OPPOSE ALL POTENTIAL SENATE AMENDMENTS ON GSP/TAA BILL” 2011, lexis)

  On the other hand, they do not 

  AND 

  lobbyists this week said that is overly ambitious.

  Their link is based on palestenian aid packages funding, not the aff at all, prefer aff specific evidence

  SKFTA won’t pass now – House Republican opposition

  Hooper, 9/10 [Molly K., “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP,” The Hill, September 10, 2011, ]

  House Republican leaders face a tough task of 

  AND 

  is expected to send to Congress this fall.

  Delay ensures perception of break of alliance now, its been delayed for over 4 years and US demands for always needing more ensures link

  Stares card concludes that all great powers try to foster peace and stability regardless of alliance

  No North Korean war – multiple internal and external factors – your ev is media bias

  Yong Kwon (a Washington-based analyst of international affairs) April 21, 2011 “North Korea: Calculus of an existential war” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MD21Dg02.html

  The general lack of knowledge regarding North Korea 

  AND 

  have become a part of North Korea's identity. 

  Fiat solves the link

  Political capital theory is bankrupt

  Dickinson, 2009 (Matthew Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power” May, google)

  What is of more interest to me, 

  AND 

  the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee. 

  E-IMET only trades off with IMET

  US SouthCom Training Manual 6 (http://www.disam.dsca.mil/itm/COCOM/Southcom-Guide.pdf)

  Note that E-IMET is not a 

  AND 

  during the End-of-Year reallocations. 

  Vote no

   E-IMET is bipart

  Elisa Moskowitz works in the Policy Planning Office, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy December 2008 “The Creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA494804

  The catalyst for the initiative was the Foreign 

  AND 

  that it met the intent of Congress.12

  Winners win—legislative success builds political capital.

  Green, 2010 (David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, “The Do-Nothing 44th President” June 11, google)

  Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and 

  AND 

  Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

  Defense lobbies and the pro-Israel lobby support IMET

  Deen 11 (Thalif, UN Bureau Chief & IPS Regional Director – North America, 2/11 “Egypt’s US-Armed Military in Transitory Commanding Role” )

  The hefty 35 billion dollars in gratis military 

  AND 

  with the Israelis since the 1989 peace treaty.

  AT: Orientalism

  Perm do both – alt overcomes links or it can’t overcome SQuo

  Do plan and position yourself as a critical intellectual in order to re-think security---representation of the Middle East can be changed

  Perm plan plus noncompetitive parts of the alternative

   Competition should be both textual and functional – centers the Aff thesis while avoiding alphabet soup

  There is no connection between orientalist discourse and actual violence – their arguments mistake causation and correlation.

  Andrew J. Rotter, prof @ colgate. "Saidism without said: orientalism and US diplomatic history" The american historical review, 105(4) 2000 p. 1208-10

  A third and yet more troubling problem for 

  AND 

  with Moby Dick is less clear.8  9 

  Perm plan and alternative in every other instance.

  Orientalist critiques make it impossible for either the West or the East to fully understand one another – replicating the same violence

  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique” http://www.travelbrochuregraphics.com/extra/2001_nights_the_end_of_the_orientalist_critique.htm

  For example, the curator for a recent 

  AND 

  views of Europe’s imperial Orientalists at their worst.

  Perm do the aff without orientalist reps

  Focus on language is a prison-house that kills human agency and makes real political action to stop violence and oppression impossible

  David McNally (professor of political science at York University) 1997 “in defense of history” p. 26-7

  We are witnessing today a new idealism, 

  AND 

  the rebuilding of mass movements of protest and resistance

  Orientalist critiques obscurity prevents infusion into the public sphere – its all unread academia

  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique” http://www.travelbrochuregraphics.com/extra/2001_nights_the_end_of_the_orientalist_critique.htm

  On the other hand, the practitioners of 

  AND 

  appears increasingly ossified, if not something worse.  

  Orientalism is inevitable and their kritik is an oversimplification.  Continuing accusations of orientalism suffocates academic research and allows the most violent forms of orientalist violence to manifest themselves

  Joshua Teitelbaum is Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, and Adjunct Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan University and Meir Litvak is Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern and African History, Tel Aviv University. Dr. Teitelbaum began his studies at UCLA in 1976; Dr. Litvak began his at Tel Aviv University in 1980. In this article, they reflect on the influence of Said's Orientalism throughout their years of studying and teaching about Islam and the Middle East. March, 2006. “STUDENTS, TEACHERS, AND EDWARD SAID: TAKING STOCK OF ORIENTALISM” online

  The argument that the Occident (or actually 

  AND 

  fearful of developing an opinion of their own.

  Our evidence is not based on flawed studies – their indictment of our epistemology glosses over academic specificity.

  Martin Kramer, fellow @ washington institute for near east policy. "Ivory towers on sand: the failure of middle eastern studies in american" 2001. online

  Said offered no evidence, no documents, 

  AND 

  of Eastern peoples of which Said complains."38

  The alternative leads crushes political dialogue, destroying and semblance of understanding the East in any productive fashion – The alt leads to comparatively more suffering

  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique” http://www.travelbrochuregraphics.com/extra/2001_nights_the_end_of_the_orientalist_critique.htm

  But that’s supposing one can subtract the consumer 

  AND 

  this crisis is at least open to question.

  AT: EU CP

  US weakness in Iran’s sphere of influence causes terrorism, prolif, and Israeli conflict.

  Vallely, 11, Major General Paul E. Vallely, “Chessboard: Balance of Power Changing Rapidly” , 2-2-11, http://www.thepostemail.com/2011/02/02/chessboard-balance-of-power-changing-rapidly/

  It appears that our State Department and White 

  AND 

  erupting across the globe, coincidence? NO!

  Extinction

  Sid-Ahmed September 1, 2004 “Extinction!” Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, staff writer, Al-Ahram Issue 705,  http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm

  We have reached a point in human history 

  AND 

  whole planet, we will all be losers.

  Perm do the CP

  Military only says yes to US aid.

  Mark Thompson Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter covered national security in Washington since 1979 February 1, 2011 TIME “Sharing Democracy With the Egyptian Military” http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/02/01/sharing-democracy-with-the-egyptian-military/

  "This new generation of Egyptian officers has 

  AND 

  exposure to the U.S. military."

  E-IMET key to naval interoperability- key to naval power

  Stephen W. Walsh is a naval analyst at the Center for Security Strategy and Operations Seapower Archives 2002 “The Interoperability Issue” http://www.navyleague.org/seapower/interoperability_issue.htm

  Faster, smaller, smarter, and stealthier 

  AND 

  many issues resulting from the incompatibility of equipment. 

  Solves major power war—biggest impact.

  Conway et al, 2007 (James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, google)

  Deter major power war. No other disruption 

  AND 

  control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

  US key affect Egypt military- unique leverage

  James Kitfield has written on defense, national security and foreign policy issues from Washington, D.C. for over two decades 2/12/2011 The National Interest “Ghosts of the 'Arab Spring' “ EBSCO

  "Arab regimes tend to politicize their militaries

  AND 

  that may prove critical in times of crisis.

  US educational model best

  Thomas C. Bruneau et al Professor in 

  AND 

  are selected to attend the most important meetings.

   1AR Cites UNI Quarters

  Foreign policy

  Jeffrey S. Peake professor at Bowling Green State University Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 54, No. 1 (March 2001) “Presidential Agenda Setting in Foreign Policy” pp. 69-86

  Two recent articles (Edwards and Wood 1999

  AND 

  foreign policy priorities are more successful agenda setters.

  High Salience issues

  Jeffrey S. Peake professor at Bowling Green State University Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 54, No. 1 (March 2001) “Presidential Agenda Setting in Foreign Policy” pp. 69-86

  Issues examined here are less salient than issues 

  AND 

  highly salient issues regardless of the President's agenda.

  Divided Government

  George C. Edwards III and Andrew Barrett Texas A&M University “Presidential Agenda Setting in Congress” presentation at the Congress and the President in a Partisan Era Conference sponsored by the Program in American Politics in the Center for Presidential Studies February 5-6, 1999 http://www-polisci.tamu.edu/upload_images/9/SP13Agenda.pdf

  We also see that the average success rates 

  AND 

  of presidential and congressional initiatives under divided government.

  we can accurately predict legislative voting based on partisanship and ideology 

  Lance Leloup and Steven Shull (prof. political science) 1999 The President and Congress p. 5-6

  Second, a somewhat different congressionalist or Congress

  AND 

  the president's popularity or margin of electoral victory.

  
  
• 
  
  

AT Orientalism

• Tournament: UNI | Round: 3 | Opponent: Concordia BW | Judge: Springer
  
  

• : There is no connection between orientalist discourse and actual violence – their arguments mistake causation and correlation.

  Andrew J. Rotter, prof @ colgate. "Saidism without said: orientalism and US diplomatic history" The american historical review, 105(4) 2000 p. 1208-10

  A third and yet more troubling problem for 

  AND 

  with Moby Dick is less clear.8  9 

  Orientalist critiques make it impossible for either the West or the East to fully understand one another – replicating the same violence

  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique” http://www.travelbrochuregraphics.com/extra/2001_nights_the_end_of_the_orientalist_critique.htm

  For example, the curator for a recent 

  AND 

  views of Europe’s imperial Orientalists at their worst.

  Focus on language is a prison-house that kills human agency and makes real political action to stop violence and oppression impossible

  David McNally (professor of political science at York University) 1997 “in defense of history” p. 26-7

  We are witnessing today a new idealism, 

  AND 

  the rebuilding of mass movements of protest and resistance

  Orientalist critiques obscurity prevents infusion into the public sphere – its all unread academia

  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique” http://www.travelbrochuregraphics.com/extra/2001_nights_the_end_of_the_orientalist_critique.htm

  On the other hand, the practitioners of 

  AND 

  appears increasingly ossified, if not something worse.  

  
  
• 
  
  

Bear Shock 1AC

• Tournament: Bear Shock | Round: 2 | Opponent: Indiana FT | Judge: Koehle
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• Plan

  The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

  Transition Advantage 1AC

  The military is frustrating the transition to democracy- new revolution is immanent

  Matt Bradley 9-14-2011 Wall Street Journal “Emergency-Law Extension Worries Egyptian Activists” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903532804576568611926699764.html
  The interim government's decision on Sunday to renew
  AND
  1981, would be lifted before parliamentary elections.
  The SCAF isn’t opposed to democracy- just scared and confused

  Michael Wahid Hanna is a fellow and program officer at the Century Foundation August 23, 2011 Foreign Policy “The mind of Egypt's military” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/the_mind_of_egypts_military
  Critics of the SCAF attribute to it an
  AND
  to thoroughgoing, and potentially destabilizing, reform.
  This ensures Al Qaeda takeover – US key to prevent

  Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
  The uprising in Egypt is far from over
  AND
  democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
  Maintaining a peaceful transition key to discredit violent revolutuon

  Dr Sayed Khatab is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia. He is a Co-Editor of the peer referred International Journal of Humanity & Islam Presented to The 24th Annual Conference of the International Association for Conflict Management July 3-6, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey “Egyptian Revolution and its Impact on the Stability in the Middle East”
  The Revolution in Egypt put radicalism and al
  AND
  change i.e. violent Jihad.16
  Egypts economy is on the precipice of destruction- investors are freaked out by political turmoil

  Ahram Online 9-14-2011 “Market Report: Egypt stock losses spiral on” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/21265/Business/Economy/Market-Report-Egypt-stock-losses-spiral-on-.aspx
  Egyptian stocks slipped for their fourth consecutive session
  AND
  of re-applying Egypt's reviled emergency law.

  Egypt is key to the global economy

  Michael Schuman (long-time foreign correspondent for TIME magazine, and former Wall Street Journal reporter) February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d
  At first glance, the upheaval on the
  AND
  prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.

  Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support

  Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of
  AND
  Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
  Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
  AND
  to an increase in the use of force. 

  These conflicts escalate

  Mathew J. Burrows (counselor in the
  AND
  09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf
  Of course, the report encompasses more than
  AND
  a more dog-eat-dog world.

  Immediacy and certainty are key- US pressure for democracy is key to let them know our words aren’t hollow

  David A. Super, a law professor at Georgetown University, is active in Voices for a Democratic Egypt August 23, 2011 Los Angeles Times “Time for the U.S. to use its influence in Egypt”  http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-super-egypt-20110823,0,5909879.story
  The coming months will be a crucial time
  AND
  democracy in the heart of the Arab world.

  US civil military aid is key - have to ensure future generals are accustomed to democratic norms

  William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
  While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
  AND
  the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

  They will say yes- the US has unique leverage

  Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe Washington Post Staff Writers January 30, 2011 “A test of Egypt's military and its relations with U.S.” Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904546.html?sid=ST2011013000187
  The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's
  AND
  the Egyptian middle and upper-middle class.

  Middle East Regional Heg Advantage 1AC

  US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region

  Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
  As I will show shortly, in recent
  AND
  , they question U.S. credibility.
  2 Internal Links

  First is Regional CMR- E-IMET solves in Egypt

  Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
  Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
  AND
  , to receive civil-military affairs training.
  CMR in Egypt is modeled throughout the region- now is the key time

  Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times February 04, 2011 “Change in Egypt could restore its centrality to the Arab world” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/04/world/la-fg-egypt-arab-world-20110204
  For centuries, before its steady decline of
  AND
  it is clear that something fundamental has changed.

  CMR key to US engagement in the Middle East- key to interoperability

  Nora Bensahel et al is Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Daniel L. Byman professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. He has served as a staff member on the 9/11 Commission, and Negeen Pegahi an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval War College 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
  Civil-military relations may also pose a
  AND
  equipment and training while regular military capabilities erode.

  CMR key to allied conventional deterrence

  Risa Brooks is an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University.  Her research focuses on issues related to civil-military relations, military effectiveness, and militant and terrorist organizations 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
  Assessing civil-military relations is also significant
  AND
  their armed forces in the region’s many wars.

  Independently solves inevitably conflicts- conventional deterrence is key

  Dr. Rebecca Grant, PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Former lecturer at Air University and Air Command and Staff College, February 2009 (Global Deterrence: The Role of F-22, Lexington Institute)
  In the Cold War, nuclear deterrence was
  AND
  occasional jostling or more serious face-offs.

  Second is strategic location= Egypt is key to US Middle East presence- US engagement is key to preserve the alliance- now is the key time to cement US access

  David Wood writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/
  Whatever the outcome of the tumult wracking Egypt
  AND
  that capability is years away, he said.

  US presence key to prevent regional conflicts from escalating- Iran proliferates and multiple other hotpots would escalate

  Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.  JAN 24, 2011, VOL. 16, NO. 18  The Weekly Standard “The Price of Power” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1
  Today the international situation is also one of
  AND
  table and the table will not fall over.
  Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it

  Herbert London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds
  Iran is poised to be the hegemon in
  AND
  the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

  Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework

  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
  The basis of the argument that escalation is
  AND
  of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

  Spirals out of control – causes CBW use

  James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
  AND
  , with substantial risk for the entire world.
  Extinction

  Jorge Hirsch, 4-10-06, Professor of Physics at the University of California at San Diego & Fellow of the American Physical Society, last accesced 6-24-09. http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/4069
  Iran is likely to respond to any US
  AND
  will all be gone before anybody has prevailed.
  Bioweapons independently cause extinction

  Richard Ochs: 7-9-02,  has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
  Of all the weapons of mass destruction,
  AND
  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

  Iran is on the verge of nuclear weapons- most recent and qualified reports confirm

  Market Watch 9-4-2011“AJC: New IAEA Report Reaffirms Dangers of Iran's Nuclear Program” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ajc-new-iaea-report-reaffirms-dangers-of-irans-nuclear-program-2011-09-04
  "This latest IAEA report underscores yet again
  AND
  starting with the nations in Iran's immediate neighborhood."

  Nuclear Iran creates unstable multipolar deterrence relationship- lack of communication means escalation is likely

  Gerald M. Steinberg (Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is Director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University) April 2005 “Deterrence Instability: Hizballah's Fuse to Iran's Bomb” Jerusalem Viewpoints
  Historically, in response to other threats to
  AND
  this relationship will be highly dangerous and unstable.

  Iran prolif causes wildfire regional prolif- makes nuclear escalation inevitable

  Dr. Shmuel Bar is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?” http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf
  We should ask whether a polynuclear Middle East
  AND
  the tendency to opt for a first strike.

  Middle East prolif not stable- geography causes use of lose pressures and ensures countervalue targeting

  Ian O. Lesser Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004 “The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change” RAND http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1640.pdf
  Compared with the intercontinental competition of the Cold
  AND
  about the stabilizing affects of nuclear proliferation unconvincing.

  That causes extinction

  Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers
  AND
  .org/article/Nuclear_winter]
  Nuclear winter is a term that describes the
  AND
  prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe

  
  
  

2AC V Loyola

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola | Judge: Justin Kirk
  
  

• We’ll make a key distinction – the plans representations are aimed at leaders not the general population which is who your impact evidence is talking about.  Instilling fear in leaders minds is key to prevent global nuclear conflict

  Stephen Lee (Cambridge University Press) March 1, 1996 “Morality, Prudence, and Nuclear Weapons” p. 327

  The prospects for the delegitimation of nuclear weapons

  AND

  that talking about it succeeds only in frightening people

  Extinction outweighs – as long as there is some life there’s only a risk they retain ontological capacity

  Hans Jonas (Former Alvin Johnson Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research and Former Eric Voegelin Visiting Prof. – U. Munich) 1996 “Morality and Mortality: A Search for the Good After Auschwitz”, p. 111-112)

  With this look ahead at an ethics for

  AND

  to the end of our essay on ontology.

  How we know something doesn’t influence material reality

  Alexander Wendt (Professor of International Security and PolSci, Ohio State) 2000 On the Via Media, Review of International Studies 26,

  In the book I argue that, compared

  AND

  varied tools at our disposal for answering them.

  This cedes power to aggressive and reactionary elites that replicate the worst forms of the violence that Spanos describes causing extinction

  Carl Boggs (Los Angeles Campus Full Time Faculty Professor) 1997 “The Great Retreat”

  The decline of the public sphere in late

  AND

  interests that had vanished from civil society.75 

   

  Just because something is a social construction doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist at all – rejecting this results in endless violence and oppression

  Catharine Mackinnon (feminist) 2000 “Points against postmodernism” http://lawreview.kentlaw.edu/articles/75-3/mackin%20after%20macro1%206%2030%2000.pdf.

  It is my view that it is the

  AND

  Where are these people when you need them?

   

   

  Util is good and doesn’t devalue life

  Richard L. Revesz (Dean and Lawrence King Professor of Law at New York University School of Law, JD Yale Law School) and Michael A Livermore. (JD NYU School of Law, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, and Managing director of the NYU Law Review). Retaking Rationality How Cots-Benefit Analysis Can Better protect the Environment and Our Health. 2008. P. 1-4.

  Governmental decisions are also fundamentally different from personal

  AND

  act effectively to bring about a better world.

  
  
• 
  
  

AT: Cap

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Environmental collapse wont cause extinction

  Gregg Easterbrook (a senior fellow at The New Republic) July 2003 “We're All Gonna Die!” http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=

  If we're talking about doomsday - the end 

  AND 

  of Things Past while lying in bed. 

  No extinction 

  Amy Kaleita (assistant professor of agricultural and biosystems engineering at Iowa State University) and Gregory Forbes (research analyst at the Pacific Research Institute) 2007 “Hysteria’s History” http://www.undergroundnotes.com/graphics2/Hysteria_History.pdf

  Apocalyptic stories about the irreparable, catastrophic damage 

  AND 

  should be based on reality, not hysteria.

  Elites will backlash in devastating civil wars

  Roger Terry (senior editor at the Ensign magazine) Economic Insanity. 1995.  pp. 137-138

  Given the fact that capitalism as we know 

  AND 

  more devastating than the one fought over slavery. 

  Growth solves AIDS, and democracy

  Leonard Silk (Professor, Economics, Pace University) Winter 1993 “Dangers of Slow Growth,” FOREIGN AFFAIRS p. 173-174.

  In the absence of such shifts of human 

  AND 

  and more liberal and open economies and societies.

  Extinction- Democracy

  Glen T. Martin May/June 1999 “Three States in the Dialectical Realization of Democracy-And the Constitution for the Federation of Earth,” ACROSS FRONTIERS, www.radford.edu/~gmartin/three%20stages%20paper.htm

  . Only within a planetary framework of the 

  AND 

  concrete step in the dialectic of human liberation.

  The capitalist order is the foundation for US hegemony.

  Peter Gowan. "US Hegemony Today." Monthly Review. 2003. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/is_3_55/ai_105368629/pg_1

  American hegemony since 1945 has been structurally different 

  AND 

  of international capital accumulation throughout the capitalist world.

  Anti-capitalism is rooted in emotionalism 

  Andrew Bernstein. (Lecturer at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale). The Capitalist Manifesto: The Historic, Economic and Philosophic Case for Laissez Faire. 2005. p.199-200.

  In various forms, emotionalism (or anti

  AND 

  Anti-capitalism is inherently anti-rational.

  Must reject this emotionalism that voids life of meaning and makes the worst violence possible.

  Andrew Bernstein. (Lecturer at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale). The Capitalist Manifesto: The Historic, Economic and Philosophic Case for Laissez Faire. 2005. p.198-9. 

  Historically, the distilled essence of this view 

  AND 

  and capitalism to irrationalism and anti-capitalism. 

  
  
• 
  
  

AT Spanos

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• TAT SPANOS

  Spanos’ criticism causes abandonment of the public sphere and political marginalization – the alternative achieves nothing

  J. Russell Perkin (Associate Professor of English at Saint Mary's University) 1993 Postmodern Culture 3.3, “Theorizing the Culture Wars,” Project Muse

  My final criticism is that Spanos, by 

  AND 

  seems to me precisely what Spanos is recommending. 

  This cedes power to aggressive and reactionary elites that replicate the worst forms of the violence that Spanos describes causing extinction

  Carl Boggs (Los Angeles Campus Full Time Faculty Professor) 1997 “The Great Retreat” 

  The decline of the public sphere in late 

  AND 

  interests that had vanished from civil society.75  

  Spanos’ form of geneology is not emancipatory and has no way of translating into real world change

  Joseph D Lewandowski (Associate Professor and Philosophy Program Coordinator at The University of Central Missouri) 1994 Philosophy and Social Criticism, “Heidegger, literary theory and social criticism,” ed. DavidM. Rasmussen, P. 115-116

  The point to be made here is that 

  AND 

  a smoothly functioning diagram (p. 22l). 

  Their protest against imperialism empirically fails and creates the illusion that they create change – only by rejecting and realizing the futility of such protest will create real change

  Chelsey Clammer 2007, how nonviolence protects the state, http://feministreview.blogspot.com/2007/07/how-nonviolence-protects-state.html

  Do anti-war protests really stop the 

  AND 

  notions of “activism” and “change.”

  Blaming imperialism for all oppression masks more violent forms of oppression – prefer our evidence, its comparative

  Fred Halliday (Middle East Report) 1999 “The Middle East at the Millennial Turn” http://www.merip.org/mer/mer213/213_hallliday.html

  Recent developments in the Middle East and the 

  AND 

  and oppressive social practices within the Middle East.  

  No Impact - Western power and imperialism doesn’t foster violent interventions 

  Martin Shaw (Professor of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State” http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/CGPE/Failed%20States/shaw.pdf

  Furthermore, Western leaders have consistently sought to 

  AND 

  movements, rather than from the Western state. 

  Anti-imperialist strategies distort struggles for real global justice – resorting in massive violence in the periphery of your anti-western struggle

  Martin Shaw (Professor of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State” http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/CGPE/Failed%20States/shaw.pdf

  It is worth asking how the politics of 

  AND 

  its actual role in relation to the victims.

  Dissenting against American imperialism collapses current US hegemony

  Robert Kagan (senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is director of its U.S. Leadership Project) Spring 1998 “The Benevolent Empire” http://fparchive.ceip.org/Ning/archive/archive/111/empire.pdf

  Those contributing to the growing chorus of antihegemony 

  AND 

  champagne  corks in celebration of the next American humbling 

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC V Georgetown CV

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 5 | Opponent: Georgetown CV | Judge: Fisher
  
  

• Predicting and planning for uncertain future events is key– the burden of proof should be on the neg to disprove our scenarios.

  Michael Fitzsimmons 2007 [survival, vol 48, no 4, p.139]

  Uncertainty is not a new phenomenon for strategists

  AND

  messy but indispensable business of predicting the future.

  Total rejection of security discourse causes war.

  Charles F. Doran is Andrew W. Mellon Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC, “Is Major War Obsolete? An Exchange” Survival, vol. 41, no. 2, Summer 1999, pp. 139—52

  The conclusion, then, is that the

  AND

  uncertainty that leads in the end to war.

  State behavior is driven by security competition according to the dictates of offensive realism.  Critical theory does not have the ability to unseat realism as the dominant discourse of IR

  John J. Mearsheimer, realism heavyweight champion, 1995 International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1. (Summer 1995), pp. 82-93.

  Realists believe that state behavior is largely shaped

  AND

  its commanding position in the international relations literature. 

  We’ll make a key distinction – the plans representations are aimed at leaders not the general population which is who your impact evidence is talking about.  Instilling fear in leaders minds is key to prevent global nuclear conflict

  Stephen Lee (Cambridge University Press) March 1, 1996 “Morality, Prudence, and Nuclear Weapons” p. 327

  The prospects for the delegitimation of nuclear weapons

  AND

  that talking about it succeeds only in frightening people

  The fear of nuclear use itself counters the aggression of nuclear powers and thinkability of use – the sense of safety is the inverse relationship of this.

  Lee 1996 (Steven P., teaches philosophy at Hobart and William Smith Colleges. He writes on issues in social, moral, and political philosophy, especially on matters of morality and war, “Morality, Prudence, and Nuclear Weapons, March 1, pg. 327)

  The problem lies in the fact that the

  AND

  likely those habits will be formed or maintained.

   

   

  And, the counterplan creates political paralysis—the AFF is a DA.

  McNally, 1997 (David McNally, professor of political science at York University, “in defense of history” p. 26-7)

  We are witnessing today a new idealism,

  AND

  rebuilding of mass movements of protest and resistance.

   

  Democracy assistance isn’t violent

  Carl Gershman is president of the National Endowment for Democracy and Michael Allen, special assistant to the vice-president for government and external relations at NED, is editor of the online publication Democracy Digest Journal of Democracy 17.2 (2006) 36-51 “The Assault on Democracy Assistance” Project Muse

  The precondition for the acceptance of democracy promotion

  AND

  in the political process and monitor government performance.

  Perm: do both

  Bottom up movements in Egypt are failing because of military crackdowns only the affirmative can result in any shift.

  The abandonment of ‘democracy’ doesn’t solve anything- the acknowledgement of its flawed terms is sufficient.

  Little, 2010 (Adrian Little, Associate Professor and Reader, Political Theory – University of Melbourne, “Democratic Melancholy: On the Sacrosanct Place of Democracy in Radical Democratic Theory,” Political Studies 58:5, p. 971 – 987)

  Put simply, if democratic theorists do want

  AND

  neo-liberal and neo-conservative approaches.

   

  Their discourse analysis is mere idealism- traps us in a prison-house of language. Material harms, like our AFF identified, are banished for intellectual masturbation.

  Ward, 2008 (“A (brief) Critique of LacLau and Mouffe’s Discourse Analysis” September 11, http://struggleswithphilosophy.wordpress.com/2008/09/11/a-brief-critique-of-laclau-and-mouffes-discourse-analysis/)

  The aim of Laclau and Mouffe deconstructionist discourse

  AND

  health, services) and relief from constraints.

  Existence is a prerequisite to ontological questioning

  Paul Wapner (associate professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University) Winter 2003 “Leftist criticism of” http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/?article=539

  THE THIRD response to eco-criticism would

  AND

  , in some fashion, of environmental preservation.

  Blaming imperialism for all oppression masks more violent forms of oppression – prefer our evidence, its comparative

  Fred Halliday (Middle East Report) 1999 “The Middle East at the Millennial Turn” http://www.merip.org/mer/mer213/213_hallliday.html

  Recent developments in the Middle East and the

  AND

  and oppressive social practices within the Middle East. 

  Util is good and doesn’t devalue life

  Richard L. Revesz (Dean and Lawrence King Professor of Law at New York University School of Law, JD Yale Law School) and Michael A Livermore. (JD NYU School of Law, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, and Managing director of the NYU Law Review). Retaking Rationality How Cots-Benefit Analysis Can Better protect the Environment and Our Health. 2008. P. 1-4.

  Governmental decisions are also fundamentally different from personal

  AND

  act effectively to bring about a better world.

  No Impact - Western power and imperialism doesn’t foster violent interventions

  Martin Shaw (Professor of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State” http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/CGPE/Failed%20States/shaw.pdf

  Furthermore, Western leaders have consistently sought to

  AND

  movements, rather than from the Western state. 

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC v Darmouth HM

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 7 | Opponent: Dartmouth HW | Judge: Nick Miller
  
  

• CASE 2AC

  Pandemic is overdue.

  Deep Climate, 9, “Vaclav Smil on Climate Change: “No Global Warming in Past Ten Years””, http://deepclimate.org/2009/10/19/vaclav-smil-no-global-warming-in-past-ten-year/

  At this point, Revkin tried to remind

  AND

  . Because we are overdue for a pandemic.

  More ev

  CFR, 5, “The Threat of Global Pandemics”, Michael Osterholm, director of Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at Univ. of Minnesota & director of National Center for Food Protection, Department of Homeland Security & professor at Univ of Minnesota School of Public Health, Rita Colwell, chair of Royal Institution World Science Assembly’s Pandemic Preparedness Project and Laurie A.  Garrett, senior fellow for global health at Council on Foreign Affairs, and Anthony S. Fauci the director of National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institute of Health, http://www.cfr.org/publication/8198/threat_of_global_pandemics.html

  Why are we here today? Let me

  AND

  . We'll get to that in a moment.

  No ag impact to a nuke war

  Masters, 05, Jeffrey Masters, PhD in air pollution meteorology at UMich, MS in meteorology from UMich,  director of Meteorology of Weather Undergound, Frequently Asked Questions About the Ozone Hole, http://www.wunderground.com/education/holefaq.asp?MR=1

  UV-B light is generally harmful to

  AND

  days (Rousseaux et. al., 1999).

   

  AT: orientalism

  Our evidence is not based on flawed studies – their indictment of our epistemology glosses over academic specificity.

  Martin Kramer, fellow @ washington institute for near east policy. "Ivory towers on sand: the failure of middle eastern studies in american" 2001. online

  Said offered no evidence, no documents,

  AND

  of Eastern peoples of which Said complains."38

  Orientalism is inevitable and their kritik is an oversimplification.  Continuing accusations of orientalism suffocates academic research and allows the most violent forms of orientalist violence to manifest themselves

  Joshua Teitelbaum is Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, and Adjunct Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan University and Meir Litvak is Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern and African History, Tel Aviv University. Dr. Teitelbaum began his studies at UCLA in 1976; Dr. Litvak began his at Tel Aviv University in 1980. In this article, they reflect on the influence of Said's Orientalism throughout their years of studying and teaching about Islam and the Middle East. March, 2006. “STUDENTS, TEACHERS, AND EDWARD SAID: TAKING STOCK OF ORIENTALISM” online

  The argument that the Occident (or actually

  AND

  fearful of developing an opinion of their own.

  Their link card is about depictions of political instability, we don’t engage in this form of flawed discourse anywhere in the 1AC. 

  There is no connection between orientalist discourse and actual violence – their arguments mistake causation and correlation.

  Andrew J. Rotter, prof @ colgate. "Saidism without said: orientalism and US diplomatic history" The american historical review, 105(4) 2000 p. 1208-10

  A third and yet more troubling problem for

  AND

  with Moby Dick is less clear.8  9

  Orientalist critiques make it impossible for either the West or the East to fully understand one another – replicating the same violence

  Charles Paul Freund (Reason magazine) December 2001 “The end of the Orientalist critique” http://www.travelbrochuregraphics.com/extra/2001_nights_the_end_of_the_orientalist_critique.htm

  For example, the curator for a recent

  AND

  views of Europe’s imperial Orientalists at their worst.

   

  Util is good and doesn’t devalue life

  Richard L. Revesz (Dean and Lawrence King Professor of Law at New York University School of Law, JD Yale Law School) and Michael A Livermore. (JD NYU School of Law, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, and Managing director of the NYU Law Review). Retaking Rationality How Cots-Benefit Analysis Can Better protect the Environment and Our Health. 2008. P. 1-4.

  Governmental decisions are also fundamentally different from personal

  AND

  act effectively to bring about a better world.

   

  AT: PTX

  No impact: currency issue resilient- negotiations.

  International Business Times, 9/7 (“Romney puts China squarely in presidential race” 2011, google)

  The threat to force China to allow its

  AND

  to do it," said the AMA's Paul.

  No impact: Zero risk of trade restrictions even if it passes.

  Goldstein, 2010 (Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch, “China bill assailed by legal experts” October 7, 2010, google)

  “The credibility of the threat is contingent

  AND

  of seeing the WTO endorse China’s currency regime.

  Obama pushing health care ruling- no PC.

  Peek, 10/1 ( Obama Rolls Dice With Supreme Court By Liz Peek Published October 01, 2011 | FoxNews.com )

  President Obama is rolling the dice. By

  AND

  supply. What could he have accomplished instead?

  Plan is a win for Obama and is bipart.

  Lane 11, editorial board – Washington Post, 2/15/’11

  Charles ,” Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt,” The News Tribune, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/11/AR2011021106636.html

  If Obama reaches out effectively to the democratic

  AND

  in Egypt over the rest of his term.

  Political capital theory is bankrupt

  Dickinson, 2009 (Matthew Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power” May, google)

  What is of more interest to me,

  AND

  the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.

  Winners win—legislative success builds political capital.

  Green, 2010 (David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, “The Do-Nothing 44th President” June 11, google)

  Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and

  AND

  Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

   

  AT: Spending

   

  Countries turn inward – creates peace

  Lloyd deMause, director of The Institute for Psychohistory, “Nuclear War as an Anti-Sexual Group Fantasy” Updated December 18^th 2002, http://www.geocities.com/kidhistory/ja/nucsex.htm

  The nation "turns inward" during this

  AND

  , arms expeditures decrease and peace treaties multiply.

   

  No causal relationship – ignores other variables

  Niall Ferguson (Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University) 2006 Foreign Affairs, September/October, Vol. 85, Issue 5

  Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed.

  AND

  severe economic crises were not followed by wars.

  Economic collapse doesn’t cause war – no causal connection

  Thomas P.M. Barnett (senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire magazine) August 2009 “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis” http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx

  When the global financial crisis struck roughly a

  AND

  apace. That's what the Internet is for.

  E-IMET funds trade-off as normal means – No new spending

  US SouthCom Training Manual 6 (http://www.disam.dsca.mil/itm/COCOM/Southcom-Guide.pdf)

  Note that E-IMET is not a

  AND

  during the End-of-Year reallocations.

  IMET is inexpensive

  Defense Security Cooperation Agency November 15, 2010 “International Military Education & Training (IMET)” http://www.dsca.osd.mil/home/international_military_education_training.htm

  The International Military Education and Training (IMET

  AND

  alternatives to key foreign military and civilian leaders.

   

  Congress just passed short term spending bill

  Washington Post 9-30, “House Passes Short Term Spending Bill”, http://articles.boston.com/2011-09-30/news/30230440_1_short-term-spending-bill-budget-extension-government-shutdown

  On Capitol Hill, yesterday was a rare

  AND

  to “concur in the Senate amendments.’’

   

  Economic decline/instability inevitable

  AP 9-30, “ A Summer Many Investors Would Rather Forget”, http://hosted2.ap.org/txdam/cdb254b929f1478aa53a65ec12cb22c5/Article_2011-09-30-US-Markets-Quarter-End/id-6e56ff12f5a74541aea6d7afe590eac2

  It was a stomach-churning summer that

  AND

  even if it meant lousy returns for investors.

  
  
• 
  
  

Pathogens Aff

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 7 | Opponent: Dartmouth HM | Judge: Nick Miller
  
  

• The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

  Advantage one-pathogens

  Overdue for a pandemic.

  Shangraw 10, “Preparing for an Influenza Pandemic”, 7-15-2010, http://www.centralillinoisnewscenter.com/news/local/32012984.html

  "We are overdue for a pandemic epidemic

  AND

  Arbise with IL Dept of Health Emergency Coord.

  Egypt isn’t ready for pathogens.

  Ahmed & Dibb ‘8, Yasmine Ahmed & Rebecca Dibb, The Centre for Migration and Refugee Studies (Formerly FMRS), “Pandemic Preparedness Among Sudanese Migrants in Greater Cairo”, http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20Report%20Pandemic%20Preparedness%20among%20Sudanese%20Migrants%20final.pdf

  Pandemic and Pandemic Preparedness: Egyptian Approaches Grabska

  AND

  had been granted to communication and health facilities).

  Disease prevention is civil society assistance.

  Department of State, 6, “Supporting Human Rights and Democracy: The U.S. Record 2006”, http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/shrd/2006/80588.htm

  The United States also promoted civil society through

  AND

  education and prevention programs related to women's health.

  Scenario 1 Salmonella

  S Kentucky originates in Egypt, effective responses key to mitigate the worst of the impacts.

  Hedberg, 11, Craig W.  Hedberg PhD, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, “Challenges and Opportunities to Identifying and Controlling the International Spread of Salmonella”, Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume 204 Issue 5, Pp. 665-666, http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/204/5/665.full

  Foodborne illnesses result from dynamic interactions among agents

  AND

  , would warrant additional surveillance and control efforts.

   

   

  Early detection key to contain it-specifically in Egypt
   Reuters 11, “Scientists find new superbug strain of salmonella”, 8-3-11, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/salmonella-superbug-idAFL6E7J229C20110803

  Salmonella infection is a major public health problem

  AND

  various parts of Africa and the Middle East.    

  Salmonella is gram negative.

  SIU, 11, Douglas F. Fix, Southern Illinois University, Medical Microbiology http://www.cehs.siu.edu/fix/medmicro/salmo.htm

  DISTINCTIVE PROPERTIES: The genus Salmonella is a

  AND

  can activate complement, kinin and clotting factors.

  That makes it more deadly-faster spread, mutations

  Walsh Et Al 10, Timothy R Walsh, Professor of Medical Microbiology and Antimicrobial resistance, School of Medicine, Cardiff University, UK, 20+ Contributing Doctors, “Emergence of a New Antibiotic Resistance Mechanism in India, Pakistan, and the UK: A Molecular, Biological, and Epidemiological Study, www.thelancet.com/infection Published online August 11, 2010 DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(10)70143-2, “The Lancet Infectious Diseases”, Volume 10 Issue 9, Pages 597-602

  Bacteria from clinical and non-clinical settings

  AND

  have disseminated among K pneumoniae in Greece.21

   

  Extinction

  Steinbruner 1998 (John D- Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy)

  It is a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a

  AND

  security problem for the species as a whole.

   

  Scenario 2 is Bird Flu

  New strain of bird flu found in Egypt.

  Al-Masry Al-Youm, 9-1, 9-1-2011, “UN Warns of New Strain of Bird Flu in Egypt”, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/491453

  The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO

  AND

  and failing to properly oversee poultry farming operations.

  Egypt is high risk area for bird flu and a gateway to Africa-also no successful response.

  BBC, 7, 3-13-2007, “Egypt Fears of Bird Flu Mutation”, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/file_on_4/6441899.stm

  Dr Zuhir Hallaj, director of the World

  AND

  a credible response to the threat of pandemic.

  Migrant communities are at unique risk-don’t trust the government, NGOs key

  Ahmed & Dibb ‘8, Yasmine Ahmed & Rebecca Dibb, The Centre for Migration and Refugee Studies (Formerly FMRS), “Pandemic Preparedness Among Sudanese Migrants in Greater Cairo”, http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20Report%20Pandemic%20Preparedness%20among%20Sudanese%20Migrants%20final.pdf

  As highlighted by stakeholders, migrants are a

  AND

  reluctant to follow information from the Egyptian government.

  Many migrate through Egypt.

  Haaretz 10, 10-24-2010, “Egypt arrests 55 Sudanese migrants en route to Israel”, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/egypt-arrests-55-sudanese-migrants-en-route-to-israel-1.320933

  Egyptian authorities arrested on Sunday 55 Sudanese migrants

  AND

  between Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula each year.

  Transmission of diseases between native and novel species ensures no die-off.

  Dennehy et al, 06, John J Dennehy, Postdoctoral Fellow at Yale University & Assistant Professor of Queens College and the CUNY Graduate School, Nicholas A. Friedenberg, PhD from Dartmouth, Senior Scientist of Applied Biomathmatics, Robert D. Holt, Eminent Scholar and Arthur R. Marshall Jr, Chair in Ecology, PhD Harvard University, Paul E. Turner, PhD, Associate Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, “Viral Ecology and the Maintenance of Novel Host Use”, http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/499381, The American Naturalist Vol. 167, No. 3, March 2006

  Viruses can occasionally emerge by infecting new host

  AND

  —often crucial in subsequent phases of emergence.

  Cross species transmission makes viruses more deadly and mutate more

  Dennehy et al, 06, John J Dennehy, Postdoctoral Fellow at Yale University & Assistant Professor of Queens College and the CUNY Graduate School, Nicholas A. Friedenberg, PhD from Dartmouth, Senior Scientist of Applied Biomathmatics, Robert D. Holt, Eminent Scholar and Arthur R. Marshall Jr, Chair in Ecology, PhD Harvard University, Paul E. Turner, PhD, Associate Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, “Viral Ecology and the Maintenance of Novel Host Use”, http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/499381, The American Naturalist Vol. 167, No. 3, March 2006

  Viruses occasionally “emerge” by expanding the

  AND

  . 2005 and Qu et al. 2005).

  Bird flu pandemic is inevitable.

  Greger, 6, Michael Greger, graduate of the Cornell University School of Agriculture and the Tufts University School of Medicine. Also an internationally recognized lecturer, he has presented at the Conference on World Affairs, the National Institutes of Health, and the International Bird Flu Summit, among countless other symposia and institutions. “Population Bust” http://www.birdflubook.org/a.php?id=31

  A pandemic today could be many times worse

  AND

  step away from a worldwide pandemic catastrophe.”579

  Diseases cause extinction

  Yu 9, Victoria Yu, Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate”, 5-22-09 http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate

  A pandemic will kill off all humans. 

  AND

  into a human-viable strain (10).

  Education and early detection key.

  HSC 6, Homeland Security Council, May 2006, “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan”, http://www.flu.gov/professional/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf

  To increase the probability of containing a virus

  AND

  limit the spread of viruses with pandemic potential.

   

  Scenario 3 Bioweapons.

  Bioterror attack coming- most recent studies on the issue say capability and motive exist- have to be able to respond quickly- information is key

  Bob Graham, senator, chair of the Graham-Talent WMD Commission, and James Talent, senator, vice chair of the Graham-Talent WMD Commission, January 2010 “Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card, An Assessment of the U.S. Government’s Progress in Protecting the United States from Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA513786&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

  In December 2008, the Commission on the

  AND

  priority of attention from the Administration and Congress.

  Bioweapons availability is increasing- cheap option for mass destruction

  CSIS, 6 (“STRATEGIC STUDY ON BIOTERRORISM, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/061016_bioterrorism.pdf)

  Bio-agents are readily available in the

  AND

  are between the age of 30 and 45.

  Delivery is possibly- ingenuity and motivation for use ensures capabilities

  Carafano 3, Phd, Deputy Director, Institute for International Studies and Director, Center for Foreign Policy Studies, (James, “ Improving Federal Response to Catastrophic Bioterrorist Attacks: The Next Steps,” Heritage Foundation, November 13, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2003/11/Improving-Federal-Response-to-Catastrophic-Bioterrorist-Attacks-The-Next-Steps#pgfId-1083840)

  Equally troubling, the difficulties in effectively delivering

  AND

  among humans, domesticated animals, and wildlife.

  Deterrence cant check BWs.

  Trei 3, Lisa Trei, Stanford News Service, 4-16-2003, “Beefed up disease surveillance overseas key to guarding Americans from bioterrorism attacks at home, scientist argues”, http://news.stanford.edu/pr/03/chyba416.html

  Unlike the production of nuclear weapons, which

  AND

  attacks in the United States in October 2001.

  Early containment key to solve bioterror.

  Trei 3, Lisa Trei, Stanford News Service, 4-16-2003, “Beefed up disease surveillance overseas key to guarding Americans from bioterrorism attacks at home, scientist argues”, http://news.stanford.edu/pr/03/chyba416.html

  More than 140 million people fly into the

  AND

  it's happening quickly and therefore can respond quickly."

  Engineered diseases cause extinction.

  Sandberg et al 8,  Anders Sandberg is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. He received a PhD in computational neuroscience from Stockholm University and is a postdoctoral research assistant for the EU Enhance project.  Jason G. Matheny is a PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He is also a special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.  Milan M. Ćirkovićis senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade. He is also an assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro. “How Can We Reduce The Risk of Human Extinction?” http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction

  The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present

  AND

  to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.

  And they outweigh nukes.

  Ochs 2, Richard 7-9-2002, has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,”  

  Of all the weapons of mass destruction,

  AND

  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

   

  E-IMET through Global Health engagement solves bioterrorism and disease outbreaks

  DIMO, 11, 10-9-2008, “Global Health Engagement Branch: Strengthening Global Medical Capabilities”, http://www.dimo.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-110609-002.pdf

  Biological Weapons and Emerging National Security Threats (

  AND

  nurses, medical technicians, and first responders.

  E-IMET solves first responses to pandemics.

  DIMO, 11, 10-9-2008, “Global Health Engagement Branch: Strengthening Global Medical Capabilities”, http://www.dimo.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-110609-002.pdf

   “Healthcare Infection Control Planning for Pandemic

  AND

  ; individuals and institutions applying for healthcare grants.

   

  Scenario 4 soft power

  Global health initiatives solidify soft power.

  Meier, 10,  Benjamin Mason Meier is an Assistant Professor of Global Health Policy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, PhD, JD, LLM, “The Obama Administration’s Global Health Initiative: Public Health Law, U.S. Foreign Policy & Universal Human Rights”, http://www.publichealthlaw.org/contributions/2010/6/15/the-obama-administrations-global-health-initiative-public-he.html

  With contemporary institutions of global health governance now

  AND

  a post-Cold War world.[vii]

  Global Health Engagement action solidifies soft power

  MHSC 11, Military Health System Conference, 1-24-27-2011, http://www.health.mil/Libraries/Documents_Word_PDF_PPT_etc/Program_for_website.pdf

  E5 - Building Partnerships (as a Joint

  AND

  capabilities to effectively contribute to Building Partnerships missions.

  Concrete action on Arab Spring key to soft power.

  POMED, 11, Project on Middle East Democracy, 8-22-11, “Skepticism, Soft Power and the Arab Spring”, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/08/skepticism-soft-power-and-the-arab-spring.html/

  Also in Foreign Policy, Kori Schake criticizes

  AND

  the failure of the administration’s soft power approach.

   

  Warming is real and human caused.

  Dressler et al 10, Andrew Dressler, professor of atmospheric sciences, Texas A&M University; Katharine Hayhoe, research associate professor of atmospheric sciences, Texas Tech University; Charles Jackson, research scientist, Institute for Geophysics, The University of Texas at Austin; Gerald North, distinguished professor of atmospheric sciences, Texas A&M University; André Droxler, professor of earth science and director of the Center for the Study of Environment and Society, Rice University; and Rong Fu, professor, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, “On Global Warming, the Science is Solid”, http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/On-global-warming-the-science-is-solid-1623018.php

  Contrary to what one might read in newspapers

  AND

  nature as the dominant influence on our climate.

  Warming will be fast.

  Lyman 8, Mark Lynas, Visiting Research Associate at Oxford University’s School of Geography and the Environment, & frequent speaker around the world on climate change science and policy “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet” google books, p. 46

  Scientists have increasingly realized that the Earth’s climate

  AND

  little change in global temperatures.  Until now.

  Soft power solves warming.

  Nye 8, Joseph S. Nye, distinguished professor at Harvard and former dean of the Kennedy School of Government, “Recovering American Leadership”, Survival, October, 2008, http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/rdenever/USNatSecandForeignPol/Nye,%20Recovering%20American%20Leadership.pdf

  Still, the United States should guard against

  AND

  international coalitions to address these new security threats.

  Warming is Extinction

  Tickell, 8-11-2008  (Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

  We need to get prepared for four degrees

  AND

  be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.

   

  Contention two-the underview

  Nuclear war does not cause extinction

  Nyquist 1999 [J.R., WorldNetDaily contributing editor and author of ‘Origins of the Fourth World War,’ May 20, Antipas, “Is Nuclear War Survivable?” http://www.antipas.org/news/world/nuclear_war.html]

  The truth is, many prominent physicists have

  AND

  produce few (if any) fallout casualties.

  And, even if nuclear war could cause extinction, the aff’s won’t. The most likely scenario is a counterforce strike.

  Mueller 2009 (John Mueller, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies and Professor of Political Science @ Ohio State University, 2009, Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, p. 8)

  To begin to approach a condition that can

  AND

  sheltering, would perish during the first month.

  Counterforce strikes mean no nuclear winter

  Zutell 1988 (Eugene Zutell, Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs, Division of Emergency Services, 6-19-1988, http://www.fortfreedom.org/s05.htm)

  To enumerate some other problems with the nuclear

  AND

  predictable.  In fact, they are improbable.

  Wouldn’t escalate

  Michael Quinlan (former top official in the British Ministry of Defence) 2005 “Thinking About Nuclear Weapons” http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/WHP41_QUINLAN.pdf

  There are good reasons for fearing escalation:

  AND

  ; the rationality required is plain and basic.

  Intentional great power war is obsolete

  Deudney and Ikenberry 09 [Daniel, Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins, John, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, The Myth of the Autocratic Revival :Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb]

  This bleak outlook is based on an exaggeration

  AND

  the renewed value of international integration and cooperation.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

AT-T Security Assistance

• Tournament: Vandy | Round: 2 | Opponent: Miami FL | Judge: Murray
  
  

• Democracy assistance is divided into four categories: CMR falls under governance.

  McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)

  U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies

  AND

  a result of U.S. assistance.

  Democracy assistance includes the military—says the deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy.

  Democracy Digest, 2011 [6-1-11, Democracy Digest, “Linking grass roots to government in the ‘democracy bureaucracy’” demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/linking-grass-roots-to-government-in-the-democracy-bureaucracy/]

  Democracy assistance is more of an art than

  AND

  crowds out, very often, strategic vision.

  E-IMET is democracy assistance

  Carothers, 1999 (Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment, “Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve” p. 52-53, google books)

  The Department of Defense increasingly emphasizes promotion in

  AND

  , as an important part of its program.

  
  
• 
  
  

Vandy PTX 2AC

• Tournament: Vandy | Round: 2 | Opponent: Miami FL | Judge: Murray
  
  

• Obama has no capital—media narrative overwhelming.

  Page, 10/14 (Clarence Page, Buffalo News, “Obama’s lonely presidency” 2011, http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial-page/columns/national-views/article593236.ece)

  Newsmedia depict presidencies as long-running soap

  AND

  face re-election races of their own.

  Not top of agenda-Iranian sanctions.

  Helene Cooper White House correspondent with The New York Times. October 13, 2011 The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/us/obama-calls-for-iran-sanctions-following-alleged-plot.html

  President Obama vowed on Thursday to push for

  AND

  with the government of Iran over the accusations.

   

  tax reform.

  Mike Lillis and Russell Berman, 10/13/11, House Dems focus on raising revenue, taxes in supercommittee suggestions http://thehill.com/homenews/house/187547-house-dems-focus-on-raising-revenue-taxes-in-supercommittee-suggestions

  Now, however, Democrats are seizing on

  AND

  ,” the Speaker said at a press conference.

   

   

  Obama capital tanked now—FTAs

  Wallach 10-13 (Job-Killing Trade Deals Pass Congress Amidst Record Democratic Opposition

  Posted: 10/13/11 01:31 PM ET, Huffington Post, Online. By Lori Wallach, Director, Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch.)

  With 9 percent unemployment and Americans desperate for

  AND

  the same feat with his first trade votes.

  E-IMET is bipart

  Elisa Moskowitz works in the Policy Planning Office, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy December 2008 “The Creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA494804

  The catalyst for the initiative was the Foreign

  AND

  that it met the intent of Congress.12

  Political capital theory is bankrupt

  Dickinson, 2009 (Matthew Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power” May, google)

  What is of more interest to me,

  AND

  the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.

  US not key to global economy

  NYT (New York Times) July 2009 “In Asia, a Derided Theory Returns” http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CEFDE163EF932A35754C0A96F9C8B63&pagewanted=1

  For a while, when the global economic

  AND

  but it is cyclical and not systemic.''

  Winners win—legislative success builds political capital.

  Green, 2010 (David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, “The Do-Nothing 44th President” June 11, google)

  Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and

  AND

  Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

  No Link – Democracy assistance doesn’t attract any Congressional or public scrutiny

  Carothers 10 (Thomas. vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe.  House Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 10. Effective U.S. Democracy Assistance Requires Reform at USAID. Carnegie Endowment. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=view&id=40967)

  The key to strengthening U.S.

  AND

  testimony today I focus on USAID’s democracy assistance.

  Plan is a win for Obama

  Lane 11, editorial board – Washington Post, 2/15/’11

  Charles ,” Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt,” The News Tribune, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/11/AR2011021106636.html

  If Obama reaches out effectively to the democratic

  AND

  in Egypt over the rest of his term.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC-Saudi Relations

• Tournament: Vandy | Round: 2 | Opponent: Miami FL | Judge: Murray
  
  

• Saudis have no influence over Middle East

  Marc Lynch (Director of POMEPS, Project on Middle East Political Science) August 2011 “The Saudi

  Counter-Revolution” http://www.pomeps.org/2011/08/10/arab-uprisings-the-saudi-counter-revolution/

  While many in the region now see counter

  AND

  its approach of throwing money at problems will work

   

  Relations low now- democracy and oil

  Simon Henderson (Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute) April 14, 2011 “Outraged in Riyadh” http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1612

  U.S.-Saudi relations are in

  AND

  March," according to the International Energy Agency.

   

  Relations resilient

  Lucien Zeigler (Research Director at Saudi-U.S. Trade Group, Inc) March 2011 “Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After ‘Arab Spring’?” http://informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/

  Writing in the UK’s Financial Times, Eurasia

  AND

  US-Saudi relations despite some current disagreements.

   

  Security interests overwhelm

  Rodger Shanahan (the Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and is now a non-resident Fellow at the Institute. He is also an Army Reserve Fellow at the Land Warfare Studies Centre) June 23, 2011 “Washington, Riyadh and the Arab Spring” http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2011/06/23/Washington-Riyadh-and-the-Arab-Spring.aspx

  But Riyadh's anger at what it sees as

  AND

  muted public statements concerning the political protests there).

   

  Saudis support peaceful transition in Egypt

  Olga Aymerich holds a MA in International and Intercultural Relations (Middle East) and a BA in Media and Communication from Universitat Autonoma Barcelona June 2011 “Stability Trumps Religion in Saudi Arabia's Arab Spring Policies” Policy Mic http://www.policymic.com/article/show/id/511

  For these reasons, Abdullah tried to limit

  AND

  and, consequently, to Saudi Arabia’s stability.

   

  The plan is insufficient to collapse relations

  F. Gregory Gause, III (teaches political science at the University of Vermont) August 9, 2011 “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary

  While the sectarian issue should be a concern

  AND

  , and let Prince Metternich rest in peace. 

  
  
• 
  
  

Round Reports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
• 
  
  

Yemen Environment 1AC

• Tournament: UMKC | Round: 2 | Opponent: ASU MV | Judge: Eric Robinson
  
  

• Aid Now

  Morocco

  Market Watch 12-23, 2011 “Congress, President Approve Extending U.S. Aid for Morocco Reforms to Western Sahara, Advance U.S. Policy Backing Moroccan Autonomy Solution”

  Congress has approved and the President today signed

  AND

  and improve stability and security across the region."

  Libya

  Josh Hills (Resident Political Party and Communications Advisor in Libya with the National Democratic Institute, NDI is a core institute of the National Endowment for Democracy, the Washington-based democracy assistance group) 12-14, 2011 “Libya’s transition well under way” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/12/libyas-transition-well-under-way/

  In an effort to give voice to emerging

  AND

  for parties in a new, democratic Libya.

  690 million spent

  Sandin & Johnson, 1-25, “Senate passes St. Croix Bridge bill”,

  The long-debated St. Croix River

  AND

  noted in a news release after the vote.

  Liberia

  Liberian Observer, 1-18, : US Opens New Embassy in Monrovia, Gives US$75M for Private Sector Aid”, http://www.liberianobserver.com/index.php/news/item/221-us-gives-us$75m-for-private-sector-aid

  US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced yesterday

  AND

  to provide jobs to the country’s disenchanted youth.

  debates now.

  Press Enterprise 1-7, “Congress: Legislation Would Ease Land Acquisition, Save Millions”,

  Inland conservation officials have a dilemma: They

  AND

  as their plan supports transportation and infrastructure efforts.

   

  Egypt and Tunisia

  Bloomberg News 1-13, 2012 “Year Later, U.S. Can Nurture Arab Spring’s Economic Roots: View” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-13/year-later-u-s-must-nurture-arab-spring-uprising-s-economic-roots-view.html

  In responding to the Arab Spring, the

  AND

  send to Egypt over the next three years.

   

  Overview

  War never goes away, its inevitable – history proves

  James Hillman (psychologist, scholar, international lecturer, pioneer psychologist) 2004 A Terrible Love of War p. 17-8

  Halt! Is war abnormal? I find

  AND

  three wars each year of human. history.

  Nuclear war doesn’t cause extinction-indict of academia behind nuclear war science.

  Seitz 6, Russell Seitz, Visiting Scholar in Harvard University's Center for

  International Affairs, http://adamant.typepad.com/seitz/2006/12/preherein_honor.html

  You can't say they didn't try to reproduce

  AND

  proudly co-authored and helped to publicize.

  And, even if nuclear war could cause extinction, the neg’s won’t. The most likely scenario is a counterforce strike.

  Mueller 2009 (John Mueller, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies and Professor of Political Science @ Ohio State University, 2009, Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, p. 8)

  To begin to approach a condition that can

  AND

  sheltering, would perish during the first month.

  Wouldn’t escalate

  Michael Quinlan (former top official in the British Ministry of Defence) 2005 “Thinking About Nuclear Weapons” http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/WHP41_QUINLAN.pdf

  There are good reasons for fearing escalation:

  AND

  ; the rationality required is plain and basic.

  No great power wars.

  Deudney and Ikenberry 09 [Daniel, Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins, John, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, The Myth of the Autocratic Revival :Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb]

  This bleak outlook is based on an exaggeration

  AND

  the renewed value of international integration and cooperation.

   

   

  Advantage 1 Environment

  Environment impacts outweigh-

   

  A.  Impacts previously underestimated

  Science Daily, 11, 8-19-2011, “Biodiversity Critical for Maintaining Multiple 'Ecosystem Services'“, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110819155422.htm

  By combining data from 17 of the largest

  AND

  as possible could be a good precautionary approach."

  B.  reversibility

  Cass R. Sunstein () 2007 “WORST-CASE SCENARIOS” p. 176-7, Harry Kalven Visitng Professor, Professor of Law at Harvard Law School but is currently on leave to serve as the Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration, and

  In ordinary life, our judgments about worst

  AND

  aggressive measures than would otherwise seem justified.5

   

  C. outweighs nuke war.

  Richard Tobin, The Expendable Future, Associate Professor of Political Science at State University of New York, Buffalo 1990, p. 22

  Norman Meyers observes, no other form of

  AND

  and species diversity by destruction of natural habitats.

  D. invisible tipping point

  Science Daily, 11, 3-3-2011, “Loss of Plant Diversity Threatens Earth's Life-Support Systems, Experts Say”, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/03/110303153116.htm

  Biodiversity loss in the real world Recognizing that

  AND

  a threshold that we can't come back from."

  E. Long recovery time

  Ramangkura, 3, Varamon Ramangkura LL.M., 2003, Georgetown University Law Center; J.S.M., 2002, Stanford Law School; Barrister at Law, 2001, the Thai Bar Association; LL.B., 2000, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, Georgetown International Environmental Law Review Summer 2003, “Thai shrimp, sea turtles, mangrove forests and the WTO: Innovative environmental protection under the international trade regime” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3970/is_200307/ai_n9295331/?tag=content;col1

  Unlike the damage caused by many other human

  AND

  establish a monitoring network for biological diversity.148

  F.  Non-uniques war impacts

  Thomas Homer-Dixon, assistant professor of political science and director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Programme at the University of Toronto, associate fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, 1998, World Security: Challenges for a New Century, Third Edition, edited by Michael Klare and Yogesh Chandrani, p. 342-3

  Experts have proposed numerous possible links between environmental

  AND

  trade disputes—and undermining possibilities for cooperation.

   

  G. Fast

  Novacek & Cleland, 1, Michael J. Novacek American Museum of Natural History & Elsa E. Cleland, Department of Biological Sciences, “The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery”, http://www.pnas.org/content/98/10/5466.full

  The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction

  AND

  reset the future evolution of the planet's biota.

   

  H. Be skeptical of their ev-Corporate Propaganda

  Beder, 5, Sharon, visiting professor in the School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication at the University of Wollongong,  “Corporate propaganda and global capitalism - Selling free enterprise?”, http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1042&context=artspapers&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%2522oil%2520companies%2522%2520%2522corporate%2520propaganda%2522%2520environment%2520%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D10%26ved%3D0CGcQFjAJ%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fro.uow.edu.au%252Fcgi%252Fviewcontent.cgi%253Farticle%253D1042%2526context%253Dartspapers%26ei%3DUiIiT_KLMYHnsQKi2tSsCQ%26usg%3DAFQjCNF4OMepO6UTobSqg-rDTqKbLTZHTQ%26sig2%3DBYAhMjFjWLGwMg2n_UTcuw#search=%22oil%20companies%20corporate%20propaganda%20environment%22

  Corporations have used a variety of propaganda techniques

  AND

  activism (Grefe and Linsky 1995: 3).

  Yemen not taking preventative action and Socotra island is under increased stress environmentally.

  Aburawa 10, Arwa Aburawa, 12-20-10, “Biodiversity Under Threat At Yemeni ‘Alien-Island’”, http://www.greenprophet.com/2010/12/biodiversity-yemeni-island/

  In the alien and isolated landscape of the Socotra Island, just off the coast of Yemen, biodiversity is in a struggle for survival Declared an UNESCO world heritage site in July 2008, the Socotra Archipelago which is located in the northwest Indian Ocean is home to some of the rarest species in the world. According to UNESCO data, 37% of Socotra’s 825 plant species, 90% of its reptile species and 95% of its land snail species do not occur anywhere else in the world.

  Recent reports however, have raised concerns that

  AND

  truly unique species of the Island of Socotra.

  Socotra is key to regional and global ecosystem performance-Socotra specifically is currently under threat.

  Van Damme, 11, Kay Van Damme, hydrobiologist at Ghent University in Belgium, “Insular Biodiversity in a Changing World”, 5-25-2011, http://www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110525/full/nmiddleeast.2011.61.html

  Rich fauna and flora Socotra's biodiversity is like

  AND

  protection of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world?

  Socotra island is a biodiversity hub and would send a global signal of the importance of conservation of nature.

  Science Daily 11, 6-24-11, “Biodiversity in a Changing Middle East”, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110624083519.htm

  The concern for biodiversity in the region is

  AND

  Middle East, is likely to remain high.

   

  Biodiversity key to survival.

  Young, 10, Dr Ruth Young, PhD specialising in coastal marine ecology. 2-9-2010, “Biodiversity: what it is and why it’s important”, http://www.talkingnature.com/2010/02/biodiversity/biodiversity-what-and-why/

  Different species within ecosystems fill particular roles,

  AND

  that our protection of biodiversity maintains this service.

  Yemeni mangroves under siege.

  PERSGA, 4, 5-9-4, The Regional Organization for the Conservation of the Environment of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, “Status of Mangroves in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden”, PERSGA Technical Series No. 1,

  Avicennia marina is the most abundant mangrove species; it was reported in all mangrove areas in the Region. Relatively thick and well grown Rhizophora mucronata

   stands coexist in a few areas,

  AND

  huge quantities of terrestrial sediments in the wetlands.

   

  Mangrove depletion causes warming, soil erosion, coastal habitats, and broader biodiversity loss

  Ramangkura, 3, Varamon Ramangkura LL.M., 2003, Georgetown University Law Center; J.S.M., 2002, Stanford Law School; Barrister at Law, 2001, the Thai Bar Association; LL.B., 2000, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, Georgetown International Environmental Law Review Summer 2003, “Thai shrimp, sea turtles, mangrove forests and the WTO: Innovative environmental protection under the international trade regime” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3970/is_200307/ai_n9295331/?tag=content;col1

  Another significant quality of mangrove forests is that

  AND

  relied upon by local people for food.164

  Soil erosion causes extinction.

  American Society of Agricultural Engineers, December, 2002, In Defense of Soil and Water Resources in the United States, p. http://www.asabe.org/pr/soilerosion.html

  Our soil resource is vital to the survival

  AND

  water resources and improving water and air quality.

  Ocean destruction causes planetary extinction.

  Robin Kundis Craig, associate professor of law at Indiana University School of Law, Winter 2003, McGeorge Law Review, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155, p. 265-266

  Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine

  AND

  fishers go out of business as a result.  

   

  Advantage 2 is Environmental leadership

   

  Environmental leadership low.

  Hunter et al 12, by Center for Progressive Reform Member Scholars Mary Jane Angelo, Professor of Law and Director of the Environmental and Land Use Law Program at the University of Florida Levin College of Law, Rebecca Bratspies, Professor of Law at CUNY School of Law,  David Hunter, Professor of Law and Director of the International Legal Studies Program and the Program on International and Comparative Environmental Law at the American University Washington College of Law, John H. Knox, Professor of Law at Wake Forest University School of Law, Noah Sachs, Associate Professor of Law and Director of the Robert R. Merhige, Jr., Center for Environmental Studies at the University of Richmond School of Law, and Sandra Zellmer, Alumni Professor of Natural Resources Law at the University of Nebraska College of Law http://www.progressivereform.org/articles/International_Environmental_Treaties_1201.pdf

  For more than a century, the United

  AND

  organic pollutants, and trade in toxic substances.

  International action creates a renaissance in US policy.

  Steinberg & VanDeveer, 10, Paul F. Steinberg is an associate professor of political science and environmental policy at Harvey Mudd College. Stacy D. VanDeveer is an associate professor and scholar of environmental policymaking at the University of New Hampshire, “Opinion: It Takes a Nation to Save a Planet”, 11-30-10, http://www.aolnews.com/2010/11/30/opinion-it-takes-a-nation-to-save-a-planet/

  The race to save the Earth will be

  AND

  leadership at home and abroad is long overdue.

   

  US leadership key to multilateral cooperation on warming.

  Ivanova and Esty 8 Maria Ivanova, Assistant Professor of Government and Environmental Policy at The College of William and Mary and the Director of the Global Environmental Governance Project at the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, and Daniel C. Esty, Hillhouse Professor of Environmental Law and Policy at Yale University and Director of the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy and the Center for Business & Environment at Yale Summer-Fall 2008, “Reclaiming U.S. Leadership in Global Environmental Governance ” Vol 28 No. 2. http://www.umb.edu/editor_uploads/images/centers_institutes/center_governance_sustain/Ivanova-Esty-SAISReview-2008.pdf

  What has confused analysts and policymakers, especially

  AND

  further international agreements of a regulatory character.” 14

   

  Absent US leadership no one pitches in.

  Shepard 10, Don Shepard, Natural Resources/Water Resources University Laboratory Teacher & Former Financial Representative and Army National Guard Accountant, “U.S. Environmental Policy and Leadership”, http://www.brighthub.com/environment/science-environmental/articles/39623.aspx

  Will Obama Meet New Standards? Even with

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  be with a strong message from our lawmakers.

  Warming is anthro

  Schneider 2008—Tapio Schneider, PHD, climate scientist and Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering at the California Institute of Technology, Skeptic Vol 18 Issue 1, p. 31-37

  There are several lines of evidence. We

  AND

  not as clear as those of carbon dioxide.)

   

  Warming outweighs

  A.     Probability

  Hanson 2007–(J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4, G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6, A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1, D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4, A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2, M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA 2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA 3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA 7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France 9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA  11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, “Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study,” http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2287/2007/acp-7-2287-2007.html)

  These stark conclusions about the threat posed by

  AND

  face of clear scientific evidence of the danger.

  B.Quick & impacts underestimated.

  Somerville, 11, 3-8-11, Richard C.J. Somerville, Ph. D. in meteorology, Distinguished Professor Emeritus and Research Professor Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, “Hearing on “Climate Science and EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Regulations””,

  In early 2007, at the time of

  AND

  8 and G-20 groups of nations.

  Extinction

  Tickell 2008—Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange

  We need to get prepared for four degrees

  AND

  be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.

   

  Solvency

  The aff solves and protects biodiversity and environments. 

  Department of Interior, No Date, “International Technical Assistance Program”, http://www.doi.gov/intl/itap/index.cfm

  In 1995, the U.S.

  AND

  and managing private businesses that provide visitor services.

  Environmental regulations in Yemen are an empty box – technical assistance key to solve

  Alba 10 (Eleodoro Mayargo, "Environmental Governance in Oil-Producing Developing Countries," The World Bank, Extractive Industries Development Series #17, June,  siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTOGMC/Resources/336929-1266963339030/eifd17_environmental_governance.pdf)

  The effectiveness of a regulatory framework is compromised

  AND

  environmental governance of the oil and gas industry.

  Only technical assistance solves

  USAID 6 (United States Agency for International Development, "Interim Strategic Plan for Assistance to the Republic of Yemen," April pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDABY268.pdf)

  Effective management of natural habitats is hampered by

  AND

  between ministries, and lack of enforcement capacity.

  The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its technical assistance to Yemen for the purposes of improving democratic environmental governance

  US expertise key- biodiversity conservation.

  USFS 9, United States Forest Service,“Program Topics”, http://www.fs.fed.us/global/topic/welcome.htm#4

  The Agency also applies its scientific and land

  AND

  impact of a wide range of management practices.

   

  US key warrant-experience, expertise & language.

  Department of Interior, No Date, “International Technical Assistance Program”, http://www.doi.gov/intl/itap/index.cfm

  Unique Strengths of the DOI-ITAP Program

  AND

  dollars in support of DOI-ITAP projects.

  Principles in biodiversity protection are accountability, transparency and participation in decision-making. 

  Al-Gunied, 4, Dr. Hussein A. Al-Gunied, Ministry of Water & Environment, Sana’a-Yemen, “Integration of Biodiversity Considerations into Environmental Impact Assessment

  Process In The Republic of Yemen”, CBBIA Pre-Meeting and IAIA Annual Conference 2004, April 24-30, http://people.exeter.ac.uk/rwfm201/cbbia/downloads/Van04/Al-GuniedVancouver.2.pdf

  The biological diversity of Yemen, which includes

  AND

  utilized and seen as a rich natural heritage.

   

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Yemen 2AC T Cards

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• Democratic environmental governance is a term of art, its distinct from environmental assistance.  
  Diamond 1, “Checks and Balances: Environmental Program Evolutions During Democratic Transitions”, Dr. Nancy Diamond is an Agroforestry Advisor and Social Forester for the U.S. Agency for International Development under an American Association for the Advancement of Science fellowship.http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/checks/Chapters/Balances.htm
  "The single greatest failure of decentralization would
  AND
  relationships through shared work and information (transparency).

  USAID budget dictates aff research and literature checks abuse-within their democratic governance budget.  
  Klose 2k, Eliza Klose17, Director, ISAR July 18, 2000 USAID Workshop, “Greening Democracy Governing the Environment: USAID Experiences From the Field,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACN009.pdf
  LINKING ENV AND DG ISSUES • ISAR activities
  AND
  the project was stopped and the forest preserved.

  Counterinterp- Democracy assistance is civil society, rule of law, elections and governance.
  McMahon, 2002 (Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study” pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)
  U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies
  AND
  a result of U.S. assistance.

  
  
  

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