K

‘Democracy assistance’ is a hegemonic neoliberal strategy that masks oppression and violence – Resistance turns the aff

Sussman 2006 (Gerald Sussman, Professor of 

AND 

-post-soviet-eastern-europe)

U.S. interventionism, except perhaps 

AND 

political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.

Neoliberalism makes extinction inevitable- Warming, disease, nuclear war and systemic violence

Deutsch 2009 (Judith Deutsch, president, 

AND 

Neoliberalism, and Premature Deaths” Peace Magazine)

Worse still, many commentators suggest that there 

AND 

, and thinly disguised reliance on threatened use.

The alternative is to vote negative- The alt doesn’t preclude policy solutions but its methodological reformulation is a prerequisite- Mutually exclusive with the aff’s teacher/student hierarchy

Kurki 2010 (Milja Kurki, Aberystwyth University

AND 

Conceptions of Democracy in Democracy Promotion,” EBSCO)

However, another far more serious line of 

AND 

with the con- testation that currently exists. 

DA

PTC will pass, top of the agenda- Obama key

Rouse 1/4 (Tom Rouse, 

AND 

, http://goo.gl/KZkNw)

Early priorities are likely to lie with extending 

AND 

the smartest thing in the world to do.”

Plan costs political capital- Causes huge spending fights

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles 

AND 

-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid 

AND 

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

All of Obama’s political capital is key to final deal- Key to negotiating funding offsets

Philly 2011 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't 

AND 

growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

The solution is to pump more money into 

AND 

the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

Extension key to prevent double dip, consumer spending key- Link independently collapses consumer confidence

Hill 12/28 (Patrice Hill, 

AND 

,” http://goo.gl/Uxdo2)

But the added spending power and support for 

AND 

essential matters affecting the economy, he said.

Nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 2008  [Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]

Then there are the dolorous consequences of a 

AND 

divert attention from internal travails with external adventures. 

DA

US pragmatism is preserving the Saudi relationship—the plan alters the Middle East strategy, violating the deal with Riyadh

Escobar, 11-2

Pepe Escobar, Asia Times Online, “

AND 

atimes/Middle_East/MK02Ak01.html

This whole scenario was predictable ever since Washington 

AND 

business like the "security architecture" business.

[Insert Specific Link Card]

Causes nuclearization

Laura Rozen (the chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University) April 2011 “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance” http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance

Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's failure 

AND 

, they are accused of being Iranian agents."

Extinction

Eric Edelman et al (Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense) and Andrew Krepinevich (President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment) and Evan Montgomery (Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments) February 2011 “The dangers of a nuclear Iran” http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.27-The-Dangers-of-a-Nuclear-Iran.pdf

There is, however, at least one 

AND 

leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

CP

EU Forum 1NC

Solves the whole case, coordinates bilateral aid to each donor’s strengths- Counterplan alone key to EU soft power and US-EU strategic partnership

Youngs 2004 (Richard Youngs is senior researcher 

AND 

, http://goo.gl/ke2h9)

Europeans risk becoming so fixated with disassociating the 

AND 

gradual strengthening and broadening of ongoing EU programmes.  

Now is the key time for US-EU relations- Strategic partnership key to prevent multiple extinction scenarios

Stivachtis 2010 (Dr. Yannis A. 

AND 

“The Imperative for Transatlantic Cooperation,” google) 

There is no doubt that US-European 

AND 

by publics on both sides of the Atlantic.

The AFF’s expansion of realism to “democratic politics” carries a hidden agenda- authorizes the control and subsequent destruction of life.

Smith and Witt, 2008 (Lance de Haven-Smith, Florida State University, Tallahassee, and Matthew T. Witt, College of Business & Public Management, University of La Verne, California, Administration & Society, “Conjuring the Holographic State Scripting Security Doctrine for a (New) World of Disorder” Volume 40, Number 6, October, 547-585)

Mainstream scholarship in public administration … communication, November 25, 2007).

The alternative is to reject the AFF.

Only a rejection of the aff’s security politics opens space for liberating political engagement.

Neocleous, 2008 (Mark Neocleous, professor of the Critique of Political Economy, Head of Department of Politics & History, Brunel University, “Critique of Security” p. 185-6)

The only way out of such a dilemma, …brave enough to return the gift."'

A. Democracy assistance is support provided to electoral laws, processes, and institutions 

IFES 2011 (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, http://www.ifes.org/Content/Topics/Democracy-Assistance.aspx)

Democracy assistance can be defined as the legal, technical and logistic support provided to electoral laws, processes and institutions.

B. Violation- Aff is broader than elections

C. Vote neg-

1. Limits- Clear mechanism category grounded in democratic processes- Key to prevent regression to all kinds of aid—One category times six countries equals manageable research burden

2. Ground- Key to transition links, core controversy of democratization- Other interps devolve into aid good/bad and spending links

 hThe AFF is an attempt to behead the King, but acknowledges the inseparability of resistance and power- 1AC evidence:

Hamann 2009 (Trent Hamann, Neoliberalism, Governmentality, and Ethics, Foucault Studies, No 6, pp. 37-59, February 2009, http://rauli.cbs.dk/index.php/foucault-studies/article/view/2471/2469)

Whether neoliberalism will ultimately be …make individuals irreducibly individual beings.

This approach makes resistance impossible- it externalizes power, making it a re-constitutive force.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

While Foucault claims that power is "born from …appears to be in the process of perfecting itself.

The foreclosure of resistance reproduces systems of power- makes neoliberalism inevitable.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

This marks an important turning point in … new form of governmental reason: liberalism.

The alternative is to reject governmentality- only a subjectivity-centered conceptualization allows transcendence rather than reproduction.

Kerr, 1999 (Derek Kerr, Source: Science & Society, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 173-202, “Beheading the King and Enthroning the Market: A Critique of Foucauldian Governmentality” Summer, Jstor)

In conclusion, then, Foucault's … constitutive power of social practice.2

jClean TAA will pass now—Quick passage of FTAs will follow—Obama key

Needham 9/7 (Vicki Needham, 

AND 

submission of agreements,” The Hill, google)

"If he sends them, they'll be 

AND 

will send the trade accords to Capitol Hill.

Plan costs capital—Causes huge fights in Congress

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles 

AND 

-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid 

AND 

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

Capital key to TAA

Palmer 9/2 (Doug Palmer, 

AND 

-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

In addition to the challenge from organized labor

AND 

those trade agreements without TAA," said Trumka.

KORUS key to the alliance—Now key 

Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee 

AND 

/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)

A collapse in the United States of a 

AND 

economic presence in East Asia," it added.

Global nuclear war

Monthly Review 1997 (Ogura, Toshimaru; 

AND 

peninsula and Japan” April 1, lexis)

North Korea, South Korea, and Japan 

AND 

would threaten to escalate into a global conflagration.

EU CP

Text: The European Union should provide judicial training for domestic police forces in Yemen.

EU solves Yemen – US causes backlash

Mark N. Katz (Professor of Government and Politics at George Mason University) March 2011 “Yemen after Saleh” http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Yemen_after_Saleh.pdf

While this process of shaping the nature of 

AND 

as well as the West as a whole.

ouText: The Millennium Challenge Corporation should take all steps necessary to expand funding eligibility to non-governmental organizations seeking to promote democracy in Libya, including sufficiently lowering indicator requirements to account for a smaller scale of measurement.  The Millennium Challenge Corporation should propose and advocate sub-national compacts with eligible NGOs through their Threshold Program. This compact should include a substantial increase in support of governance programs for the Libyan National Transitional Council.

CP solves better

michael a. cohen and maria figueroa küpçü (New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute) 2009 “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf

Consolidating development AND development of democratic institutions.

Avoids politics

Prud’homme 2007 (Dan Prud'homme, MPRA, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, June 2007 “Assessing the Millennium Challenge Corporation as a Model for Foreign Assistance Reform” google)

The MCC generally avoids the AND war on terror expenditures.

***Israel 2NC***

Impact 2NC

Flips the case- Escalates Middle East instability and causes huge backlash to US in Arab Spring countries

Kaye 10/21 (Dalia Dassa Kaye

AND 

a bad idea,” Foreign Policy, google)

First, the operational challenges of a military 

AND 

support US-backed efforts to isolate Iran.

***India NED CP***

A2 Perm – do both (NED)

Bureaucracy

Thomas Carothers, 2009, Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Vice-president for studies @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Lexis Nexis

USAID’s basic operating procedures—a term used 

AND 

or to adapt easily when basic circumstances change. 

Congress has mandated that the NED avoids duplication.

U.S. Senate Committee Report, 6-29-2010, “National Endowment for Democracy,” DEPARTMENT OF STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS APPROPRIATIONS BILL, Senate Report 111-237, 111TH CONGRESS, 111-237, http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/?&sid=cp1110Mcmi&r_n=sr237.111&dbname=cp111&&sel=TOC_95391& 

The Committee recognizes the experience of NED in 

AND 

the traditional and customary fashion among core institutes. 

Solves 

NED is the best way for US to engage 

Thomas Melia, September 2005, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Walsh School of Foreign Service Georgetown University, “The Democracy Bureaucracy: The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion,” A discussion paper  prepared for the Princeton Project on National Security Working Group on Global Institutions and Foreign Policy Infrastructure, http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf 

Arguably the most important and visible facet of 

AND 

governmental initiatives to promote political democracy around the world

2NC India Solvency

Defer to our evidence- It is the paragraph after their solvency card- Strengthens our necessary/sufficient distinction- Their evidence says the CP is sufficient to solve even if they solve “better”

Doesn’t have to be explicit cooperation to solve their India advantages- Plan text isn’t explicit either, no solvency deficit

Twining and Fontaine 8-24  (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Richard, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, both handled South Asia policy at the State Department, “India’s Arab Spring Opportunity,” The Diplomat, 2011, http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/24/india%E2%80%99s-arab-spring-opportunity/)

As demands for democratic change swell from Benghazi 

AND 

pursuing at once our interests and our values.

Solves cooperation- NED influences and reflects US foreign policy- Also solves their US key warrants

Thomas Carothers, Summer 1994, Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment and Co-director of its Democracy Project, “The NED at 10,” Foreign Policy, No. 95, pp. 123-38

A second criticism is that the endowment is 

AND 

pant lists) only after activities are underway. 

2NC NED Solvency

NED is awesome – independence and flexibility make it more effective than the plan.

David Lowe, 12-22-2006, Vice President for Government and External Relations of the National Endowment for Democracy; Ph.D. in Political Science from Johns Hopkins University, NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS AND DEMOCRACY PROMOTION: “GIVING VOICE TO THE PEOPLE:” A Report to Members OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, UNITED STATES SENATE, http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2006_rpt/democracy.html 

NED's non-governmental status has a number 

AND 

the left toward U.S. internationalism.

***India Cooperation***

Warming

CO2 not key – scientific consensus against catastrophic warming – doesn’t collapse the environment

Walter Cunningham (United States Marine Corps, 

AND 

Warming: Facts versus Faith” The Heartland Institute 

More than 31,000 scientists in the 

AND 

contributes only a tiny portion of atmospheric CO2,

 why have alarmists made it the whipping 

AND 

healthier forests— results environmentalists used to like.

No proof of tipping points – we’ve recovered from worse temp increases 

Thomas Fuller July 6, 2010. “

AND 

points-and-the-precautionary-principle

Others are more optimistic, and say that 

AND 

Principle and assume that that closes the conversation.

India Coop Resilient

A strategic partnership with India on democracy assistance must utilize pre-existing methods – this is not the AFF – their author

Twining and Fontaine 2011 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Richard, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, both handled South Asia policy at the State Department, “The Ties that Bind? – U.S.-Indian Values-based Cooperation,” The Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

At the inter-governmental level, India 

AND 

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Cooperation can’t solve climate or the economy

Dang 2009 (Rohan, pursues law from Symbiosis, Pune, and is an alumnus of the Shri Ram School. Mr. Dang has presented papers at domestic and international legal conferences, “Have India-U.S. Relations Changed Since Obama Came to Power?” Wall Street Journal, November 19, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125861311432655249.html)

On bilateral trade, there have been lasting 

AND 

the Bush era is ready to carry on.

Burma

Won’t prolif – 

No capability or interest

Selth 2007 (Andrew, Research Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. He has been studying international security issues and Asian affairs for 35 years, as a diplomat, strategic intelligence analyst and academic. He has published five books and more than 70 peer-reviewed monographs and articles, most of them about Burma and related subjects, “Burma and Nuclear Proliferation: Policies and perceptions,” The Griffith Asia Institute, http://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/18240/regional-outlook-volume-12.pdf)

There is no evidence to support any of 

AND 

to use or to hide on its behalf.

***Energy***

Trade

Also, Trade conflicts don’t escalate – governments err on the side of reducing trade conflict – countries learned from the 1930s – ensures no spillover into conflict.  No country would risk war over commodities

David Bearce (Associate Professor of Political Science at Pittsburg University) 2003 “Grasping the commercial institutional peace” ebsco

Even as we accept that such trade dispute 

AND 

The next section will address this theoretical gap. 

The literature is on our side

Yoram Haftel (Department of Political Science University of Illinois-Chicago) 2004 “From the Outside Looking In” ebsco

These findings have several theoretical implications as well

AND 

more elaborated distinction between economic conflicts and military conflicts 

***Brotherhood***

Add Ons

SQUO solves signal- US is cracking down- Demonstrates commitment to religious freedom

Banks 9/16 (Adelle Banks, 

AND 

on religious freedom,” Charlotte Observer, google)

The State Department this week designated eight nations 

AND 

and dignity of each individual," Clinton said.

No impact to SLOCs

Muthiah Alagappa. Asian Security Order. 2003 Pg 441 Google Books. 

There is no doubt that Asia’s SLOCs are 

AND 

13.5 percent – noteworthy but hardly disastrous

Impact Defense

No impact to Israel/Egypt war—Israel would destroy them quickly

Susser 2011 (Leslie Susser, February 15

AND 

readiness for multi-front war,” online)

All this adds up to a military doctrine 

AND 

quite so easily or with so few casualties.

They won’t do anything fishy

Byman, 2011 (Daniel Byman, professor 

AND 

Comes to Power?” February 4, google)

Would a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt be 

AND 

even limited security cooperation with the United States.

ME War

Prefer our literature base – theirs overinflates threats about the outbreak of conflict

Edward Luttwak (CSIS senior associate and has served as a consultant to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, and a number of allied governments as well as international corporations and financial institutions) May 2007 “The middle of nowhere” http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2007/05/themiddleofnowhere/

Why are middle east experts so unfailingly wrong

AND 

killed in a season of conflict in Darfur.

RouDA 2

Payroll tax extension will pass- Obama is key 

Lee 11/10 (Carol Lee, 

AND 

, http://goo.gl/uoAT4)

The White House is gearing up to make 

AND 

Both expire at the end of the year.

Plan costs capital- Causes huge spending fights in Congress

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles 

AND 

-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid 

AND 

to justify nation-building in foreign countries."

All of Obama’s political capital is key

Philly 9/8 (Philadelphia Inquirer, 

AND 

growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

The solution is to pump more money into 

AND 

the payroll tax cut and continuing unemployment insurance.

Beating GOP on payroll tax key to election

AP 10/12 (“Clash over economy 

AND 

,” http://goo.gl/qSUTs)

Obama had been campaigning for the bill, 

AND 

bill and seek passage of its component parts.

Obama reelection only way to solve warming

Lewis 9/11 (Laurence Lewis, 

AND 

with scientific reality,” Daily Kos, google)

The Republicans are climate deniers. In scientific 

AND 

are in a paradigm where science doesn't exist.

Extinction

Tickell 2008 (Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher

AND 

/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees 

AND 

be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.

K

The aff relies on a flawed method of causation - if they cannot develop a coherent theory of human interaction to explain their predictions - vote neg on presumption

Steven Bernstein et al (Richard Ned Lebow, Janice Gross Stein, and Steven Weber, University of Toronto, Ohio State, and Berkeley) 2000 “God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World” European Journal of International Relations vol 43 No 6

This vision has been largely lost From the 

AND 

why things turned out the way they did.

The affirmatives attempt to manipulate the Arab Spring towards ‘stability’ is an artificial suppression of inevitable volatility that causes explosive blowback – flips the aff

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute) and Mark Blyth (Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University) May/June 2011 “The Black Swan of Cairo” http://jamesshinn.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/The-Black-Swan-of-Cairo.pdf

Why is surprise the permanent condition of the 

AND 

without noise—and no stability without volatility.∂

The alt is to vote negative- Key to epistemological rupture

Mohan J. Dutta (Professor of Communication at Purdue University, Senior Editor of the journal Health Communication and sits on the editorial board of seven journals. He is the Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education in the College of Liberal Arts at Purdue University) October 2010 “Dialog Theory in Marginalized Settings: A Subaltern Studies Approach” Communication Theory, Vol. 20 No. 4 WileyOnline

Its interjection with issues of power makes … the enunciation of local specificities that emerge in the global stage.

DA 1

US pragmatism is preserving the Saudi relationship—the plan alters the Middle East strategy, violating the deal with Riyadh

Escobar, 11-2

Pepe Escobar, Asia Times Online, “

AND 

atimes/Middle_East/MK02Ak01.html

This whole scenario was predictable ever since Washington 

AND 

business like the "security architecture" business.

Plan causes Saudi freakout and fast nuclearization

Guzansky 2011 (Yoel Guzansky, research fellow 

AND 

tests Saudis' nerve on nuclear weapons,” google)

UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees 

AND 

exempt from intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.

Extinction

Edelman et al 2011 (Eric Edelman et 

AND 

The dangers of a nuclear Iran,” google)

There is, however, at least one 

AND 

leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

Pressure CP

Text: The United States federal government should communicate to the government of Bahrain that it will issue a report finding “credible allegations of gross violations of human rights” in the Bahrain military unless Bahrain promptly releases jailed opposition leaders and makes measurable progress towards constitutional monarchy.

The counterplan is the only way to accelerate the reform process and restore U.S credibility.

Joost R. Hiltermann, 9-17-2011, Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, Foreign Affairs, “Pushing for Reform in Bahrain,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68246/joost-r-hiltermann/pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain

How Washington should now proceed is an open 

AND 

standards in its approach to the Arab Spring.

Civil War

No military capacity – internal capacity to de-escalate overwhelms your links

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the 

AND 

war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians

AND 

local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

U.S. will absorb loss of a Bahrain base – spurs shift to more flexible and responsive fleet – solves your impacts**

Michael Koplovsky, 10-23-2006, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, “Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387 

Despite adamant arguments outlining the essential nature of 

AND 

preparing itself for future challenges in the region.

No influence in Bahrain – Iraqi Ayatollah and Iranian hegemonic ambitions.

Dalia D. Kaye & Frederic Wehrey, July 2011, is Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, Frederic Wehrey is Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter," Foreign Affairs, No. 4, Ebsco Host

Iran is also likely to meet resistance in 

AND 

of Iranian or Hezbollah interference in the uprisings. 

Pressuring democracy in Bahrain would only serve to allow in more authoritarian control in the country.

Alexander Cooley & Daniel H. Nexon, 4-5-2011, is Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College in New York City, he is also a Faculty Member of Columbia’s Harriman Institute and Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies and teaches at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs, Daniel Nexon has held fellowships at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation and at the Ohio State University's Mershon Center for International Studies, Foreign Affairs, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=3 

Abandoning the idea of a zero-sum 

AND 

forced to scramble after it is under way.

Heg doesn’t solve war

Barbara Conry (former associate policy analyst, was a public relations consultant at Hensley Segal Rentschler and an expert on security issues in the Middle East, Western Europe, and Central Asia at the CATO Institute) and Charles V. Pena (Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute as well as a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, and an adviser on the Straus Military Reform Project at the CATO Institute) 2003 “47. US Security Strategy” CATO Handbook for Congress, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb108/hb108-47.pdf

Another rationale for attempting to manage global security 

AND 

from political, economic, or military conflagration.

Risks are exaggerated and counter-measures check. 

The Economist, 2010 (“A long war 

AND 

.economist.com/node/15214052)

In any event, some shipping people privately 

AND 

otherwise the violence and deaths would probably increase.

No nuclear terrorism –statistically insignificant cumulative probability

John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National 

AND 

to Al Qaeda” p, 187-190

Assigning a probability that terrorists will be able 

AND 

or ~, .-s 15 years ago.19

Econ

Diversified now, no risk of collapse.

Marian L. Tupy 8/16, 

AND 

Unlike most of its neighbors, Bahrain has 

AND 

extremism and economic populism than other Arab nations.

No conflict over resources – your literature base overfocuses on instances of conflict – for every example to prove resource wars exist there are several examples that disprove it.  Their research is based on dated data – cooperation is more likely

Simon Dalby (Dept. Of Geography, 

AND 

/publications/SSIS/SSIS001.pdf)

In parallel with the focus on human security 

AND 

not have a history of leading to wars.

Economic collapse doesn’t cause war – no causal connection

Thomas P.M. Barnett (senior 

AND 

financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx

When the global financial crisis struck roughly a 

AND 

apace. That's what the Internet is for.

CCP regime is stable and resilient

Friedman 2007 (Edward Friedman, PhD Political 

AND 

Decline." April 20, 2007. Online)

In the post-WW I era, 

AND 

strikes. Through it all, the regime survived

Promotion of democracy in Bahrain won’t work because of government surveillance – it stifles public debate.

Emma C. Murphy, 2006, is 

AND 

Information Technologies in the Gulf Arab States,” JSTOR

Development of the service in Bahrain was driven 

AND 

that government surveillance of internet use was pervasive.

 TURNS CASE- ECON

LItzig evidence- Consolidation of the GCC

Saudi instability collapses the economy

Robert Baer, former CIA field officer in the Middle East, Sleeping With the Devil, 2003, pg. 206-7

Not all the wishing and hoping in the 

AND 

the economy of the United States of America.

IRAN

Iran war

Vali Nasr (Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former Senior Fellow with The Dubai Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University) May 23, 2011 “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html

In his speech last week on the Middle 

AND 

S. in the middle of the conflict. 

TURNS CASE- REGIONAL HEG

Regional heg

Shibley Telhami (the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, College Park, and non-resident senior fellow at the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution) and Fiona Hill (Director, Center on the United States and Europe Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy The Stephen and Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute) November/December 2002 “Does Saudi Arabia Still Matter? Differing Perspectives on the Kingdom and Its Oil” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/58444/shibley-telhami-fiona-hill-et-al/does-saudi-arabia-still-matter-differing-perspectives-on-the-kin?page=show

Given America's ongoing security interest in the Persian 

AND 

in the case of a war with Iraq.

Israel War

Saudi Instability causes Israel conflict

Gregory Copley  (Editor – GIS, Defense 

AND 

at a Crossroads: Saudi Arabia's Seemingly Intractable Dilemma

Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia's  problems have become the 

AND 

critical to the global economy and  global strategic stability

A2 UN VETO

Palestine will withdraw its submission- no veto necessary.

INFO 2040, 9/22 (Cornell

AND 

-vote-for-palestinian-statehood/)

To the Palestinians, a veto could potentially 

AND 

decisions that the US and Palestine will make.

***No veto: return to peace talks or ‘NO’ votes that won’t necessitate a veto.

Radia, 9/20 (ABC news

AND 

, End Effort to Dissuade Abbas, google)

Envoys from the Quartet met today for the 

AND 

also avoiding a U.S. veto. 

2NC LINK WALL 

Bahrain is the key issue for relations- The plan ends the relationship

ICG 2011 (The International Crisis Group, July 28, 2011, "POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII):BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM," google)

Following on the heels of the Tunisian and 

AND 

time, would lead to a constitutional monarchy.

***Civil War***

ME War

Piracy

Studies confirm: no impact to piracy.

Patch, 2008 (Commander John Patch, 

AND 

“The Overstated Threat” December, google)

Overall, however, the consequences to maritime 

AND 

So why all the hand wringing over piracy?

Resource Wars

Your lit base is rigged to come to the conclusion that scarcity leads to conflict – prefer our evidence

David G. Victor, Adjunct Senior Fellow 

AND 

-08 Smoke and Mirrors The National Interest.

Nearly all of the vast literature that Homer

AND 

where lootable resources coincide with exceptionally poor governance.

***Economy***

Econ

No causal relationship – ignores other variables

Niall Ferguson (Laurence A. Tisch Professor 

AND 

/October, Vol. 85, Issue 5

Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. 

AND 

severe economic crises were not followed by wars. 

CCP

CCP regime is stable and resilient

Friedman 2007 (Edward Friedman, PhD Political 

AND 

Decline." April 20, 2007. Online)

In the post-WW I era, 

AND 

strikes. Through it all, the regime survived

***1NC***

Critique

‘Democracy assistance’ is a hegemonic neoliberal strategy that masks oppression and violence – Resistance turns the aff and causes cycles of violence

Sussman 2006 (Gerald Sussman, Professor of Urban Studies and Planning and Speech Communication at Portland State University, 2006 “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 7 http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe)

U.S. interventionism, except perhaps in the … other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.

The alternative is to vote negative- The alt doesn’t preclude policy solutions but its methodological reformulation is a prerequisite- Mutually exclusive with the aff’s teacher/student hierarchy

Kurki 2010 (Milja Kurki, Aberystwyth University, International Studies Review, “Democracy and Conceptual Contestability: Reconsidering Conceptions of Democracy in Democracy Promotion,” EBSCO)

However, another far more serious line of …and in being able to deal with the con- testation that currently exists. 

CP

The United States Federal Government should:

- announce its intention to substantially increase support to strengthen capacity for Syrian political opposition groups.

- not increase its democracy assistance for the aforementioned program

- offer to American private investors and organizations, including business and individuals, a tax credit worth 39 percent of the cost of investment for private investors to fund and provide any necessary assistance to relevant governmental and/or non-governmental organization associated with the aforementioned program.

- provide all necessary consultative support, advise, and expertise necessary for proper implementation of programs associated with private investors who receive the tax credit. 

Presumption flips neg – the CP is net less government action 

Only the CP solves – Bureaucracy crushes aff solvency – avoids politics

Eric Werker (assistant professor at Harvard Business School) and Justin Muzinich (Hedge fund manager in Connecticut) October 20, 2007 “A Global Tax Credit” http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/20/opinion/20werker.html

The second problem is that the money that … the fruits of globalization to poor countries. 

Comparatively solves better – Investors will jump on board

Stephen McInerny (Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), director of Advocacy at POMED, including graduate studies in Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo) April 2011 “The Logic of the Donor Community: American Donors,”, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/EMHRF-paper-the-logic-of-the-donor-community-American-donors.pdf

Private foundations and … during the period of transition. 

DA

Payroll tax extension will pass- Obama is key

Lee 11/10 (Carol Lee, “White House to Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut,” WSJ, http://goo.gl/uoAT4)

The White House is …expire at the end of the year.

Plan costs capital- Causes huge spending fights in Congress

Richter 2011 (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 2011, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to … nation-building in foreign countries."

All of Obama’s political capital is key

Philly 9/8 (Philadelphia Inquirer, “Don't expect miracles on job growth,” September 8, 2011, google)

The solution is to pump … continuing unemployment insurance.

PASS THIS BILL- It’s the key to the economy

Jones 10/20 (Forrest Jones, “Moody’s Zandi: Chance of Recession Stands at 40 Percent,” Money News, google)

The bill, put forth by President …them to do it," Zandi says. 

Global nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld 2008  (Aaron Friedberg, professor of Politics and International Relations at Princeton, and Gabriel Schoenfeld, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America” google)

CP

Text: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase support to strengthen capacity for Syrian non-governmental political society.

Calling them the “opposition” falls into the regime’s framing- causes failure of the movement

Nadim Shehadi  guardian.co.uk, Saturday 1 October 2011 “The Syrian 'opposition' does not have to prove itself” Online

We do not do justice to the …find its way after a long and dark period.

Civil War

No military capacity – internal capacity to de-escalate overwhelms your links

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, … from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Several checks prevent war -- 

Deterrence

Jewish Weekly September 14, 2007 “Shockwaves From Syria” http://www.jewishweek.org/news/newscontent.php3?artid=14510

The Lebanon war left … like we have conventional ambiguity.” 

Empirics

Barry Rubin, September 5 2011 Israel’s Strategic Situation: Plenty to Worry About But Little to Fear http://www.crethiplethi.com/israels-strategic-situation-plenty-to-worry-about-but-little-to-fear/israel/2011/

Might Syria fire …Not a realistic scenario.

No Iranian power projection – Multiple reasons

- No alliances in other Arab spring countries

- Support for Syria crackdowns kills regional credibility

- Sanctions killing economy (and funding to hamas/Hezbollah)

- Kurdish Separatists attacking oil pipelines

- Saudi assassination plot was the nail in the coffin

Daniel Nisman (works for Max Security Solutions, a risk consulting firm based in Tel Aviv) October 21, 2011 “Is Iran Cornered?” http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=48637

As the Syrian conflict … which has ironically has become the last nail in its own coffin.

Bioterrorism is exaggerated – wont cause extinction

Arms Control Center, 2010 (Scientists Working Group on Biological and Chemical Weapons, report in response to the Graham-Talent Commission report on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Biological threats: a matter of balance” January 26, google)

• The bioterrorist threat has … the outcomes towards inflated and unlikely results.

History is on our side - 96% of the time it only kills 3 or less people

Stimson Center 2005 (Henry L. Stimson Center, Frequently Asked Questions: Likelihood of Terrorists Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons, http://www.stimson.org/cwc/terror.htm)

The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo was brimming with highly educated scientists, yet the cult's biological weapons program turned out to be a lemon. While its poison gas program certainly made more headway, it was rife with life-threatening production and dissemination accidents. After all of Aum's extensive … or fewer people were injured or killed

Iran

Squo solves.

Çanda 2009 (Cengiz Çanda, December 2009, “Turkey’s ‘Soft Power’ Strategy: A New Vision for a Multi-Polar World,” SETA Policy Brief, google)

Turkey is the newcomer in the …presenting a counterweight to Iran in the region.

Iran will not miscalculate or be aggressive – too many checks in the system

Boroujerdi and Fine 2007 – 57 Syracuse L Rev 619

The  potential for groupthink ...miscalculated action less realistic. 

Heg doesn’t solve war

Barbara Conry (former associate policy analyst, was a public relations consultant at Hensley Segal Rentschler and an expert on security issues in the Middle East, Western Europe, and Central Asia at the CATO Institute) and Charles V. Pena (Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute as well as a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, and an adviser on the Straus Military Reform Project at the CATO Institute) 2003 “47. US Security Strategy” CATO Handbook for Congress, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb108/hb108-47.pdf

Another rationale for attempting to …political, economic, or military conflagration.

No impact - Other nations will still cooperate with the U.S. even if it’s unpopular

Kagan 2006 (Robert, The Washington Post, 1/15, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17894&prog=zgp&proj=zusr

The striking thing about the … working hard and ostentatiously to improve relations

No miscalc – daily checks

Reuters June 7, 2007 “US, Iranian Navies Keep Talking to Avoid Accidents” http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL06925974

Despite the growing … called it a deliberate attack. 

***2NC***

***PIC***

2NC Solvency

This approach to the opposition delegitimizes them

Posted By Peter Harling, the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group   Tuesday, August 30, 2011 “How not to prolong the Syrian agony” Foreign Policy Magazine, Online

Such regimes ultimately rest on fear …Syrians, ought not be encouraged.

Reps Don’t Shape Reality

Rhetoric surrounding the plan is especially key to Syria- Their author

 Elliott Abrams 8/2 2011 "Preventing Civil War in Syria" (their card) <http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576>

For this to work, the U.S. should … will make him an international outlaw forever. 

A2 Perm Do the CP

 (b) Discourse is inextricably bound with the plan’s effect

Doty, 1996

 (Roxanne, Associate Professor of Political Science – Arizona State U., Imperial Encounters, p. 5-6)

This study beings with the premise that … exercise of political, military, and economic power.

(c) Severance is a voting issue – shifting the plan in the 2AC can eliminate the whole neg strategy. The stable plan is the sole focus of the debate.

Language is functional

U.H., 2008

University of Hertfordshire School of Combined Studies, “Describing and Analysing Language” August, google

The approach taken for this description and … connected oral discourse and written texts.

***Civil War***

No Escalation

No civil war or escalation

Burhan Ghalyoun, Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, interview: “The Syrian People Will Determine the Fate of Syria,” July 26, 2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/2203/the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-of-syria

I believe that when the …hesitant group its economic interests. 

No escalation-empirics prove

Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/2007

Having admitted, however, that … for a decade. No regional conflagration.

No Syria-Israel War

Framing issue at the top – their literature base is based on worst-case fearmongering – facts on the ground always err towards moderation

Barry Rubin, September 5 2011 Israel’s Strategic Situation: Plenty to Worry About But Little to Fear http://www.crethiplethi.com/israels-strategic-situation-plenty-to-worry-about-but-little-to-fear/israel/2011/

Another reader has asked: But won’t … or high-level terrorism are unlikely.

War wont break out – 5 warrants

- Israeli air dominance cements deterrence – Assad has empirically backed down.  Protests don’t make change this calculus

Joshua Mitnick | Published Tue, Jun 7 2011 9:01 am Golan protests: Is Syria's Assad stirring up trouble with Israel?

That said, analysts say … to Israel out of this."

- History proves their ‘last ditch lashout’ argument is wrong – Iraq disproves

- Russian mediation dampens incentives for conflict – they can moderate each side

- Syrian fear of escalation overwhelms their links

Barry Rubin, September 5 2011 Israel’s Strategic Situation: Plenty to Worry About But Little to Fear http://www.crethiplethi.com/israels-strategic-situation-plenty-to-worry-about-but-little-to-fear/israel/2011/

What will Israel do should … “brothers” in the Gaza Strip

- Syria has a weak military and is distracted by uprisings now – they’ve pulled back troops from threatening location – no miscalc

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 8, 2011, 6:26 PM (GMT+02:00) 

Syrian units pull back from Israeli border for Assad's final anti-protest offensive 

The Syrian ruler has … targets for his major offensive.

Even if they in war breaks out it wont escalate – Israel would crush them before it got out of hand – that’s Cordesman – even if Syria lashed out with everything Israel wouldn’t escalate

Israel Harel 9-8-11 As war looms large, Israel is sticking its head in the sand http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/as-war-looms-large-israel-is-sticking-its-head-in-the-sand-1.383158

Israeli guns are indeed … will be concluded too soon. 

No Draw In

No military intervention in Syria – 4 reasons

Hussein Tahiri September 15, 2011 - 6:36AM  Opinion Arab spring may prove a dawn of false hope 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/arab-spring-may-prove-a-dawn-of-false-hope-20110914-1k945.html#ixzz1XyUOAsx5

 In Syria, the regime of Bashar al-Assad …a strong lead in the uprisings in Syria.

No chance of foreign intervention– opposed by the opposition, lots of countries, and  people know it would be unsuccessful because of the coherence of the Syrian military

Hummam Sheikh Ali  English.news.cn -09-13-2011 01:37:13 FeedbackPrintRSS News Analysis: Libya-style foreign intervention unlikely in Syria http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-09/13/c_131134368.htm

DAMASCUS, Sept. 12 (Xinhua) -- Despite the mounting …to control in the region," he said. 

CBWS

No Syrian bioweapons – your ev is exaggerated

NTI (nuclear therat initiative, in partnership with the james martin center for nonproliferation studies at the Monterey institute for international studies) September 2009 “Biological Overview” http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Syria/Biological/index.html

Very little open source information exists … gave achieved a capability to put BW agents into effective weapons."[7]

No risk of a smallpox attack.

Ronald Bailey, 10-24-2001, science correspondent, Reason Online, "Is Smallpox Next,”

http://reason.com/rb/rb102401.html 

Once a person has been diagnosed …about anthrax than smallpox. Someone clearly got access to dried anthrax."

Samson Option

No Samson option- Just posturing, wouldn’t strike w/o US permission

Rubin 11/3 (Barry Rubin, “Don’t worry, Israel won’t bomb Iran,” National Post, http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/03/barry-rubin-dont-worry-israel-won%E2%80%99t-bomb-iran/)

First, Iran is still far from getting … Gulf Arab states from any Iranian attack.

***Iran***

No Regional Heg

Support for Syrian crackdowns has crushes their credibility regionally – Arabs across the region condemn their support – It’s the Persian kiss of death

ICG (International Crisis Group) November 3, 2011 “ Conflict Risk Alert: Syria’s Tipping Point” http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/conflict-risk-alert-Syria-tipping-point.aspx

Syria's closest allies, Hizbollah and Iran, … ever-deepening sectarian lines.

Heg

Empirically proven

Christopher J. Fettweis (Professor of national security affairs @ U.S. Naval War College) 2010 “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2 April 2010 , pages 59 – 82

One potential explanation for the growth … the conclusion that world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

International system resilient – no conflict

Christopher Preble (director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) August 2010 “U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?” http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/

Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be, the world’s indispensable nation. Some scholars, however, questioned … in fly-over country pick up the tab.

Western alliances ensure no violent overturning of the current liberal order

John Ikenberry (professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University) January/February 2008 “The Rise of China and the Future of the West Can the Liberal System Survive?” Foreign Affairs

Second is the coalition-based … change has been abolished as a historical process.

***1NR***

Disad is bigger and faster-

It is TRY OR DIE for payroll tax holiday- Key to prevent quick unraveling of the economy

Zandi 9/9 (Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, September 9, 2011, “An Analysis of the Obama Jobs Plan,” Moody’s Analytics, google)

Given the current political environment, it … must work quickly and decisively.

Econ decline turns case—

Bigger internal link to the case- Backsliding, regional prolif and diminished US military presence in the Middle East

Burrows and Harris 2009 (Mathew J. Burrows, counselor in the National Intelligence Council, PhD in European History from Cambridge University, and Jennifer Harris, a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, April 2009 “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf)

Of course, the report encompasses more than … states in a more dog-eat-dog world. 

Rollback and reverses plan’s perception

Myers 10/4 (Steven Myers, “Budget crisis forcing cuts in foreign aid,” NYT, google)

The U.S. budget crisis at … the Middle East and North Africa."

Defense

Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline … statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.  

2NC Key to Econ

A- Expiration kills recovery

Jacobs 9/8 (Elisabeth Jacobs, senior fellow Brookings, “President Obama's Speech Powerful, In Style and Substance,” google)

In a forceful speech to Congress this … of creating jobs in the process. 

B- Consumer spending

Weller 9/12 (Christian Weller, “New Republic: Why We Need Payroll Tax Cuts,” NPR, google)

Raising income growth, then, is … at the same time.

C- Business confidence

McLenaghan 9/22 (Ed McLenaghan, “Proposed Employee Payroll Tax Holiday Would Provide Big Boost to NC’s Struggling Economy,” Progressive Pulse, google

The proposed payroll tax … sustainable economic recovery for North Carolinians.

UQ

Will pass- Legislators don’t want to alienate voters

Business Insider 11/11 (“The Most Important Question In Washington: Is A Massive Tax Hike Just A Few Weeks Away?,” Lexis)

But there is one decision that has to … voters in an election year.

Will pass but bargaining is key

Englund 11/7 (Michael Englund, “U.S. Treasury Receipts Climb Into FY12,” Newstex, Lexis)

The payroll tax cut is …hopefully in acceptable proportions.

Will pass- Bipartisan agreement in principle

Hunt 11/10 (Kasie Hunt, “GOP candidates: Fix US economy or fail like Europe,” Lexis)

On one specific issue that … billion in the Social Security trust fund."

YES Political Capital

Obama is undergoing a “political renaissance”

Cassidy 11/11 (John Cassidy, “Obama’s Mini Surge,” New Yorker, http://goo.gl/YinOc)

With all the weird stuff going on in the Republican race, another important story, perhaps related, has been underreported. President Obama is enjoying something of a … than he did a few months ago.

Polls prove

Memoli 11/1 (Michael A. Memoli, “Obama's approval rating on the rebound?,” LA Times, http://goo.gl/0ySpL)

Don't call it a comeback; … moves through executive orders.

GOP bashing

Welna 11/2 (David Welna, “As Obama Vents, His Poll Numbers Get A Bump,” NPR, http://goo.gl/vLkUd)

After weeks of falling poll … run-up to his re-election.

Foreign policy

Williams 11/2 (Juan Williams, “Have the 2012 GOP Presidential Candidates Simply Given Up on Foreign Policy?,” Fox News, http://goo.gl/U8tDH)

In fact, the surprising lack of foreign … complaint that Democrats are soft on foreign policy.

AT: Out of Town

Puts funding in line with past rhetoric means he gets blamed.

Dadush and Dunne 2011 (Uri Dadush, Director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Michele Dunne, Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council, Fall 2011 “American and European Responses to the Arab Spring: What’s the Big Idea?” The Washington Quarterly, google)

The responses of the United States and …effective response to the region’s economic challenges

AT: Loss Inevitable

NO aid now

Elbagir 8/31 (Nima Elbagir 8/31 2011 "Activist: Syrians not backing down despite lack of international aid,” google)

As reports of violent crackdowns … initiative to end the violence.

Not a win

Supporting Syrian opposition takes capital

Weiss 2011  (Michael Weiss, June 7, 2011, “Syria: Why does the Obama administration let Assad off the hook?” http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=27244)

Perhaps if the Syrians were …of Islamic terrorists.

Winners Don’t Win

Not true for Obama—PC is finite.

Ryan, 2009 (Selwyn Ryan, Professor of Social Science at the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, University of West Indies. Ph.D. in Political Science from Cornell, Trinidad Express, January 18, google) 

Like many, I expect much from Obama, … constituency in cyberspace (the latent "Obama Party").

Overreaching burns capital.

Politico, 2009 (“RNC hopefuls predict Obama backlash” January 5, google)

The candidates vying to lead the … opportunities for Republicans.

Winners Win (Long)

Our top of agenda args prove only payroll tax would be a win

Mathews and Todd 2009 (Chris and Todd, political director at NBC, Hardball, June 22, google)

MATTHEWS: What are the political stakes for Obama … years when you look back on it. 

Plan can’t be a win- Foreign policy doesn’t count

Cohen and Simendinger 2003 (Richard E. Cohen and Alexis Simendinger, March 29, 2003, National Journal “President Bush's Allies Say He Won't Repeat His Father's Mistakes,” google)

"If a president is successful … sorting these things out, and they do it very quickly."

We’ll concede payroll tax’s big win enables Obama to get the rest of his agenda, only the plan derails it- Now we’ll impact the rest of his agenda- First responders and infrastructure

Fram 11/11 (Alan Fram, “Senate approves jobs benefits for veterans,” News Tribune, http://goo.gl/0MVr2)

It also would erase a law, yet to … renewal people’s taxes would rise next year.

Infrastructure key to clean tech leadership

Puentes 2011 (Robert Puentes, senior fellow at Brookings, April 5, 2011, “Infrastructure Investment and U.S. Competitiveness,” CFR, google)

Most experts agree the United States must … private capital we know is ready to invest here in the United States.

Extinction

Klarevas 2009 (Louis Klarevas, Professor for Center for Global Affairs @ New York University, December 15, 2009, “Securing American Primacy While Tackling Climate Change: Toward a National Strategy of Greengemony,” google)

With the impending systemic … for achieving this is to promote a national strategy of greengemony.

First responders deter terrorism

Hart and Rudman 2002 (Gary Hart and Warren Rudman, Chairs of Task Force on Terrorism at Council on Foreign Relation, November 2002, Council on Foreign Relations, America: Still Unprepared, Still in Danger)

Preparedness at home …battles to the streets of our nation’s homeland.

Nuclear war

Lewis 2002 (Michael Lewis, 2002, Nuclear Warfare, p. http://armageddononline.tripod.com/nuclear.htm)

Russia created around 250 … one small nuclear device could kill billions

***1NC Turkey Forum***

1NC CP2

US-Turkey forum solves and is key to maturation of strategic partnership

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

The United States should … and future security challenges.

CP solves better, only Turkey has credibility in the Middle East- Secondary role proves the CP is plan-minus

Ketterer 2010 (James Ketterer, April 27, 2010, “Turkish Foreign Policy: Old and New,” Foreign Policy Association, http://goo.gl/i18Le)

That new role also presents opportunities for …development calculus will change accordingly.

CP alone key- Integrating Turkish leadership into coordinated Arab Spring policy key to partnership and prevents Turkish adventurism

Ülgen 2011 (Sinan Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, “From Inspiration to Aspiration,” http://goo.gl/93UXg)

Turkey’s Western orientation is also in … and a lasting success story.

Strategic partnership solves global instability, terrorism, prolif, and disease

Cook and Sherwood-Randall 2006 (Steven A. Cook, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, adjunct senior fellow for alliance relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2006, “Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations,” http://goo.gl/qMCg8)

The history of the U.S.-Turkish … of the twenty-first century.

***2NC Turkey Forum***

Partnership NB Impact 2NC

Partnership key to Middle East stability- Drift flips the case

Boyer and Katulis 2008 (Spencer P. Boyer and Brian Katulis, December 2008, “The Neglected Alliance,” Center for American Progress, http://goo.gl/uZeif)

While security cooperation—the … important bilateral tasks before them.

Turkish leadership on the Arab Spring independently solves extinction

Falk 2011, (Richard Falk, former professor of Internaitonal Relations at Princeton, May 20, 2011, “Global Leadership: American Retreat, BRIC Ambivalence, and Turkey’s Rise,” Foreign Policy Journal, google)

The personal achievements of Davutoglu’s diplomacy have been reinforced by the wider impacts on the region of Turkey’s domestic stability and pragmatic adaptation to the world economic … peoples of the region and the world.

Partnership NB Impact 2NC- Laundry List Ext

Conceded laundry list of impacts- Terrorism, disease mean the NB is key to solve the case, we’ll impact prolif

Proliferation

Utgoff 2002 (Victor A., Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses. In 1998–99, he established the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office, former senior member of the National Security Council Staff, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions”)

We can almost hear the kinds of …the face of nuclear threatsA2. 

A2 Can’t Solve

CP is perceived as US assistance- USAID requires coordinated aid to be co-branded

USAID 2009 (United States Agency for International Development, May 5, 2009, “ADS Chapter 320: Branding and Marking,” http://goo.gl/zI9g2)

USAID’s policy is …the requirements of this section.

CP’s cooperation causes knowledge sharing that overcomes Turkish shortcomings, boosts credibility and makes both actors more effective

Kirisci 2010 (Kemal Kirisci, Boğaziçi University, “Diffusing liberal market and democratic values: Assessing Turkey’s ‘soft power’ in transforming its neighborhood,” presented at the American Political Science Annual Meeting, September 2010, online)

At a time when in both … continuing to cooperate with Western actors.

Working with Turkey is key to influence opposition groups

Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad Oct 26, 2011 The Atlantic “Turkey's Hand in the Syrian Opposition” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/

After seven months … of post-Assad Syria.

A2 Can’t Solve Iran

Turkey leadership key to power projection

Kliman and Walker 2011 (Daniel M. Kliman, visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Joshua W. Walker, postdoctoral fellow at the Crown Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Brandeis University, August 3, 2011, “The West must engage, not demonize, Turkey,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2010/0803/The-West-must-engage-not-demonize-Turkey)

Rising democracies … be a grave mistake.

A2 Empirically Denied

US-Turkey relationship is at a crossroads- Relations are high but strategic interests are diverging- CP’s equal engagement is key to sustainable partnership

Larrabee 2011 (F. Stephen Larrabee, May 12, 2011, “The New Turkey and U.S.-Turkish Relations,” New Turkey, http://goo.gl/tqUnX)

In short, the United States has … attaches to good relations with Turkey. 

A2 Do Both

Perm fails- Unilateral action makes Turkey a counterweight

Outzen 2011 (Eva Outzen, rapporteur for a conference, summary of remarks made by Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program, June 11, 2011, “The AKP's Turkey: Asset or Liability for the United States?,” http://goo.gl/1dGya) 

During the past decade of AKP rule, . individual U.S. or EU sanctions.

Turkey wants veto power on US Arab Spring policy

Nisman 2011 (Daniel Nisman, October 10, 2011, “Erdogan serious when it comes to regional leadership,” Jerusalem Post, http://goo.gl/aX5pi)

In addition, Turkey has stepped up … taking place within its realm.

***2NR Turkey Forum***

Say Yes

Turkey says yes- Their “catch up” strategy in Libya proves

Kardas 2011 (Saban Kardas, October 10, 2011, “Turkey’s Middle East Policy Reloaded: Rise of Pragmatism,” German Marshall Fund, http://goo.gl/C9Kvz)

Erdoğan’s knee-jerk rejection of …the early rhetoric of autonomous action.

‘Democracy assistance’ is a hegemonic neoliberal strategy that masks oppression and violence – turns the aff

Sussman 2006 (Gerald Sussman, Professor of 

AND 

-post-soviet-eastern-europe)

U.S. interventionism, except perhaps 

AND 

political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.

Neoliberalism makes multiple scenarios for extinction inevitable

Deutsch 2009 (Judith Deutsch, president, 

AND 

Neoliberalism, and Premature Deaths” Peace Magazine)

Worse still, many commentators suggest that there 

AND 

, and thinly disguised reliance on threatened use.

The alternative is vote negative – This form of rejection is critical to opening space for subaltern voices to speak.  That’s key to challenge neoliberal corporate domination – this is a pre-requisite to any productive ‘democracy assistance’ policy

Dutta 2005 (Mohan J. Dutta, 

AND 

Research Vol. 17 No. 3 EBSCO)

The examples of the Philippines, Chile, 

AND 

in resistance against acts of marginalization and silencing.